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Dave Essler Week Three NFL Thoughts
San Diego-Tennessee: It might be time to fade the Chargers for the simple fact that it may not be too late to jump on the Titans bandwagon, but more importantly the Chargers have got to be a bit tired, opening on a Monday and playing two East Coast games back to back.
Cleveland-Minnesota: I'd probably just follow the late money, if there is anything telling. Simply cannot call Ponder v Weeden here. And because the under looks too easy, I am waiting that one out, too.
Tampa Bay-New England: Already gave thoughts on this one several times. Best bet was probably under, but the good (great) numbers are long gone and probably won't be back. I still think there's some value to the Bucs.
Houston-Baltimore: Obviously the health and status of Ray Rice and Andre Johnson are waiting for, and Ed Reed is listed as doubtful. If one were to assume they both played, I'd lean over here (but haven't looked at the weather forecast). Timing will be everything here with respect to the best number(s).
Rams-Cowboys: Almost tempted to put in a Cowboys 1H bet given the way the Rams have fallen behind in both games, yet came back to win one and make a game of another. Since both teams do have decent defenses, and both offenses are mistake-prone, the under is not out of the question.
Arizona-New Orleans: Lots of respect given here to both defense with that total opening and still sitting at 48.5. If it ticks down anytime soon I'd lean under, and I just don't like either side. Yet.
Detroit-Washington: It seems like the Lions are the popular play here, but I still don't trust Schwartz or the Lions emotional state. Not having played in Arizona and lost a lead late. The Redskins defense has way underperformed, but how much of that was being not prepared for what the Eagles would do, and of course the wrath of the Packers after a loss. So, I am trying to build a case for Washington here.
Green Bay-Bengals: See Ivey Walters. I had a slight lean to the Bengals, only because getting over the hump of being the chalk on a Monday night might mean something.
Giants-Panthers: I know that people are lining up on the Giants, but I am not. Cannot take a team that's turned the ball over 10 times in two games. Panthers played Seattle tough, and lost a game at Buffalo I actually thought they would, or at least wouldn't be as easy as some thought. Bills playing with heart, so, I lean Panthers here.
Colts-49ers: The tendency here is to assume the 49ers are coming in pissed, and I am sure they are. But, can they get back after after such a public beatdown. My biggest problem trying to take the generous points is the Colts defense, which has been fairly porous, all things considered. I'd like to think this stays under, too, because I don't see the Colts scoring a ton. Too reliant on Wayne.
Jacksonville-Seattle: Welp, there's not much to be said about this one. Just a matter of whether the Seahawks want to name the score or not.
Buffalo-Jets: I'm still sold on Buffalo as being at least a serious team to bet on, but with the Jets having the extra time and being at home it's tough to come down one way or the other. Manuels' first road start, but he does appear to be in control of his emotions. I like the Bills defense much better, and think it'd probably be the Bills if you made me today.
Chicago-Pittsburgh: So the Bears win ugly and the Steelers do what many expected them to. I still have to think if I could get +3 at home with the Steelers I'd have to take it, and although both teams are "known" for defense, I can see this one being a shootout, and lean over.
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River City Sports Syndicate
NFL
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
Sunday 1:00 PM – Bank of America Stadium
Current Line – Panthers (-1)
Something has to give when the Giants travel south to take on the Carolina Panthers. Both teams have started the season 0-2, getting there in different ways. The Giants have been torched defensively in two losses to the Cowboys and Broncos, while the Panthers suffered a brutal defeat last week on the last play of the game to the Bills. Eli Manning has struggled to start the season, throwing 5 TD’s and 7 INT’s. Part of those problems come from a lack of any type of running game, forcing the Giants to be completely one-dimensional. We think the signing of Brandon Jacobs will help the Giants a little more this week and open up some more opportunities in the passing game. This game basically comes down to the fact that we will take Manning everyday over Cam Newton, and Coughlin everyday over Ron Rivera. Backs to the wall, the Giants get it done on the road. Therefore, the Sharps say…
2 UNITS ON….GIANTS
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Pointspreadpros
Week 3 TOP Plays
San Diego +3
Atlanta +3
PHILADELPHIA -3
NEW ENGLAND -7
PITTSBURGH +2.5
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PJ Walsh Sports Insights
Finding underdog value in Week 3
Where value lies using a betting system based off teams 0-2 ATS
Updated: September 18, 2013, 11:45 AM ET
By PJ Walsh Sports Insights
Through the first two weeks of the season, we've been able to take advantage of new head coaches and teams that lost Week 1 games to pinpoint profitable NFL betting opportunities. While most bettors overreact to straight-up results after Week 1, the betting market starts to see against the spread (ATS) panic following Week 2, as bettors want no part of teams that have had trouble covering the spread in consecutive games. There are 10 teams heading into Week 3 with 0-2 ATS records, meaning there is plenty of value for those interested in continuing with our contrarian betting philosophy.
First off, let me just advise that making 10 spread wagers with a slate of 16 total games will put your bankroll at risk and is not recommended. In order to filter this number down, I used our Bet Labs to craft a Week 3 betting system that extracts as much value as possible from teams that start a season with back-to-back ATS losses. The table below displays the results of my analysis, dating back to 2007.
Note: Our NFL database starts with the 2003 season, but because of bye-week scheduling, I chose to start the analysis in 2007. From 2003 to 2006, bye weeks began in Week 3, so some teams enjoyed byes after starting 0-2 ATS. In order to keep the results consistent, I used 2007, when the NFL moved the first round of bye weeks to Week 4, as my starting point (Week 3 underdogs that started the season winless ATS covered 66.7 percent of the time from 2003 to 2006).
Teams 0-2 ATS since 2007
Week 3 Games ATS Record ATS Margin Units Won ROI
0-2 ATS, All Teams 26-21 (55.3%) 0.98 +4.69 +10%
0-2 ATS, Favorites 7-10 (41.2%) -2.09 -2.80 -16.5%
0-2 ATS, Underdogs 19-11 (63.3%) 2.72 +7.49 +25%
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to calculate ATS records
Instantly, we see value with teams that start a season 0-2 ATS, as they historically bounce back to cover at a rate of 55.3 percent in Week 3. However, breaking this down even further and comparing favorites to underdogs is where we see the most impressive results. While favorites have struggled to a 41.2 percent win rate ATS, underdogs have covered 63.3 percent of Week 3 games, producing a profit of 7.49 units and a 25 percent return on investment.
Why does this work?
This system adds another wrinkle to the broader betting strategy of taking advantage of public overreaction. It's extremely difficult for recreational bettors to back a team that has "burned them" twice in a row, even if the numbers say it's a smart Week 3 bet. But remember, oddsmakers are already accounting for how teams have performed and build that into this week's point spreads. Still, public bettors generally focus on recent results and "know" these teams won't cover, while experienced bettors exploit the value illustrated in our historical analysis above.
Week 3 system matches
Cleveland Browns (plus-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
So much for Cleveland being 2013's trendy sleeper. The Browns have found the end zone only once through two games, and with 79 percent of spread wagers on the Vikings, the betting public wants no part of Cleveland in this game -- especially with Brian Hoyer now starting on Sunday. However, sharp bettors will have no problem buying back the Browns, especially if public action pushes this game to plus-6 or higher.
St. Louis Rams (plus-4) at Dallas Cowboys
After winning but failing to cover Week 1 against Arizona, St. Louis struggled to a 24-3 halftime deficit last week against Atlanta. The Rams showed some resilience by fighting back and losing by just seven points, but it still wasn't enough to beat the four-point closing spread. Combine St. Louis' 0-2 ATS record and a Week 3 road game against arguably the NFL's most popular team, and you have the perfect recipe for contrarian betting value.
Indianapolis Colts (plus-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Despite getting crushed by Seattle, San Francisco is still a big double-digit favorite against Indianapolis. Returning to our analysis above, double-digit underdogs that start the season 0-2 ATS are 6-1 ATS in Week 3. Even though the sample size is incredibly small, it does show that even big underdogs are capable of covering the spread in this betting system.
Jacksonville Jaguars (plus-19.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks looked great on national television against the 49ers, while the Jaguars mustered a grand total of nine points against the Raiders. Oddsmakers have taken notice, with Jacksonville currently listed as a massive 19.5-point underdog. Since the Jaguars closed as 3.5-point underdogs in each of their two previous games this season, it's hard not to think this week's line has overreaction written all over it.
New York Giants (plus-1) at Carolina Panthers
Both teams in this matchup are winless ATS this season, meaning it hits both sides of our system. We know from our analysis that the Giants make a nice play as the underdog. Furthermore, the Panthers are solid fade (or bet against) material since favorites historically cover just 41.2 percent of the time in this scenario.
Interestingly, the Giants are currently receiving 88 percent of spread bets, which could flip-flop the favorite and underdog by kickoff. The results of this system are based on closing lines, so be sure to check in to Insider's NFL PickCenter throughout the week to see if New York is still the underdog in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-2.5) versus Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh has suffered from a combination of key injuries and poor play to start the season winless SU and ATS. Before the season kicked off, the Steelers as a home underdog in Week 3 would have seemed crazy, especially against an opponent that is winless ATS itself (Chicago pushed Week 1 and lost ATS Week 2). However, based on our analysis, this is a good spot to buy low on Pittsburgh getting points at home.
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INSIDER ANGLES NFL Trends & Angles - Week 3
Two weeks are now in the books in the 2013 NFL season, and thus far the underdogs have had just a slight edge going 17-14-1 ATS after going 9-7 ATS in Week 2. There has been no edge whatsoever so far in the totals department with the 'overs' and the 'unders' having a 16-16 split.
While the underdogs are not tearing things up just yet, just the fact that they have a winning record ATS is encouraging with still two weeks of September football left, as the contrarian angles that we prefer seem to work best this month when lines are the softest because bettors often over-react to early-season results.
Also you will notice that we have sections below for Good/Bad Team trends, and as a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively. Good Teams are defined as teams that won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are ones that lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.
As a reminder, we are only using trends for the month of September for the rest of this month before kicking off our full-season Trends & Angles in October, and all records presented are for the last 13 Septembers since the 2000 season plus the first two weeks of this year.
All Teams - General Angles
Play against September home favorites coming off an ATS loss (80-53-8, 60.2% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following an ATS loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Week 3 is an extremely busy week for this angle as of now.
Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 at Philadelphia (Thursday), New York Giants +1 at Carolina, Tampa Bay +7 at New England, Arizona +7 at New Orleans, Indianapolis +10 at San Francisco and Detroit +2½ at Washington.
Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game
(89-60-8, 59.7% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team.
Qualifiers: Baltimore +2½, Detroit +2½ and Oakland +15 (Monday).
Play against September home favorites coming off a road game (134-96-13, 58.3% ATS): This percentage may be a tad lower than our others, but the very large sample size makes up for it. Bettors often assume that home favorites that were on the road the prior week will automatically improve solely because of now having home field. While that does happen from time to time, this record suggests that home field is actually being overcompensated for in the betting line. Once again, Week 3 is a huge week for this angle.
Qualifiers: New York Giants +1, St. Louis +4, Atlanta +3, Cleveland +5.5, Arizona +7, Buffalo +2½, Indianapolis +10, San Diego +3, Detroit +2½ and Oakland +15 (Monday).
Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games
Play against Good Teams in September coming off of an ATS loss (68-47-4, 59.1% ATS): Bettors are usually more forgiving when a Good Team fails to cover the spread than when a Bad Team fails to do so, as they believe the Good Teams have a better chance to bounce back stronger next game. However, a lot of times the team is simply not as good as it was the previous year, and the oddsmakers are a tad slow to adjust to that.
Qualifiers: Pittsburgh +2½ vs. Chicago, Baltimore +2½ vs. Houston and Tampa Bay +7 at New England. Note: San Francisco and Indianapolis would both qualify also, but they are opposing each other.
Play the 'over' in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (56-33-1, 62.9%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going 'over', and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go 'over' in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position.
Qualifying 'OVERS': Green Bay at Cincinnati, Jacksonville at Seattle and Oakland at Denver (Monday).
Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (47-30-7, 61.0% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it.
Qualifiers: Miami -3 and San Francisco -10.
Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games
Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (112-75-10, 59.9% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling.
Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 (Thursday), Arizona +7, Buffalo +2½, Cleveland +5½, Detroit +2½, Jacksonville +19, San Diego +3, Tampa Bay +7 and Oakland +15 (Monday).
Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (61-36-3, 62.9% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win.
Qualifiers: New York Giants +1 and Buffalo +2½.
Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September
(51-25-4, 67.1% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration.
Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 (Thursday) and Buffalo +2½.
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Football Jesus Podcast FREE pick : Ravens + points , 13-4 in football after last week
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Northcoast
Totals POW - Giants / Panthers Over 45.5
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CFL
Week 13
BC Lions (7-4) @ Saskatchewan (8-3)—Lions lost QB Lulay (shoulder) last week, either unproven DeMarco (threw six passes, one for TD in mop-up role last week) or former Lion Pierce (9-year vet recently re-acquired in trade) gets nod here, in series where BC won five of last seven games, despite losing last two visits to Regina by 23-20/27-21 scores. In its four losses, BC allowed 44-38-39-37 points; they allowed average of 17.4 ppg in their wins. Riders slipped up last two weeks, allowing 25-31 points in games they led at half (outscored 34-10 in second half). Saskatchewan is 3-2 as a home favorite, winning at Taylor Field by 15-37-3-23 points. Lions are -11 in turnovers last seven games, after being even in first four. Nine of last ten series games stayed under total, but three of last four games overall for both sides here went over.
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NFL
Week 3
Sunday's Games
Chargers (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)—Second straight trip east for Bolts, who split pair of 3-point decisions as underdogs in first two games, despite allowing 30+ points in both games- they’ve won nine in a row vs Tennessee, waxing Titans 38-10 in Week 2 LY at Qualcomm (TY 418-212). Chargers are 17-29 on 3rd down thru two games, with WR Royal scoring five TDs already. After facing prolific passers Schaub/Vick, Locker is going to be change of pace; in splitting pair of road games (lost in OT at Houston last week), Titans gained only 229-248 yards, but have seven sacks (+2 and four takeaways (+4), while running ball for 115.5 yards/game, with no giveaways. Tennessee is 4-5 as home favorite under Munchak, 3-5 as a favorite in home openers. Bolts are now 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as a road dog. Home favorites in non-divisional games are 5-6-1 vs spread thru first two weeks of season.
Browns (0-2) @ Vikings (1-1)—Cleveland QB Weeden (thumb) likely out here; former Patriot backup Hoyer gets the start; in their first two games, Browns averaged less than five yards/pass attempt and ran ball for total of just 112 yards on 33 carries- they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as road dog after shutting Ravens out in first half last week, but losing 14-6 (+6.5) in Maryland. Minnesota is 2-3 in last five home openers, 0-5 vs spread (0-4 as favorite); they scored TD on both defense/special teams last week, still lost 31-30 after kicking FG on all three trips to red zone. Vikes turned ball over seven times (-1) in two games, had 15-yard deficit in field position both games- they’re 3-5-1 as home favorites under Frazier, are 11-20-1 vs spread vs AFC teams the last eight years. Browns were outscored 31-3 in second half of their first two games.
Buccaneers (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)—Curious to see Pats’ passing game 10 days after dismal showing vs Jets; their two wins are by total of five points, with NE averaging just 5.1/4.5 yards/pass attempt. Edelman caught 13 passes last week for 78 yards, not exactly Jerry Rice, but Brady was 6-21 targeting anyone else. Bucs’ two losses are by total of three points, both in last 0:10- they’ve had 23 penalties for 220 yards in two games- S Goldson's suspension for this game was lifted. Since ’09, Tampa is 18-11-1 as road dogs, 5-2 under Schiano. NE is 5-2 in this series, winning last two meetings 28-0/35-7; Bucs lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’05- they completed less than half their passes in both games so far this year, as rumors circulate that QB Freeman will walk after this year. These teams practiced against each other summer for few days before their (meaningless) exhibition game, so there is some familiarity.
Texans (2-0) @ Ravens (1-1)—Houston is first team since AFL merger in 1970 to win first two games, both on last play of game; they’ve outrushed first two opponents by 46 yards/game, even though they were outscored 31-14 in first halves. Texans crushed Baltimore 43-13 at home LY, ending six-game series skid vs Ravens; they’re 0-3 here, with last loss 20-13 in ’11 playoffs. Over last 10+ years, Ravens are 6-8 as home dogs, 2-3 under Harbaugh- they’re 20-15 under him in games where spread was 3 or less points. Since 2010, Texans are 8-5-1 as road favorites- they’re 8-0-1 vs spread in last nine games where spread was 3 or less. Star WR AJohnson (concussion) is doubtful here. Ravens averaged just 2.8 yards/rush in first two games; they won last week despite getting shut out in first half. Consistent Houston offense gained 449-452 yards in first two games, just wished they’d put pedal to metal in first half, too.
Rams (1-1) @ Cowboys (1-1)—Home team lost six of last nine series games, but Rams lost 35-7/34-7 in last two visits here; St Louis was awful in first half in Atlanta last week (trailed 24-3) then fought back and made game of it- they’re 7-2 as road dog under Fisher, 5-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Cowboys are 4-17 as home favorites under Garrett, 3-10 vs non-divisional foes, 10-13-1 coming off loss. First two Dallas games were decided by total of six points; Cowboys ran ball 39 times for only 124 yards (3.2/carry) in first two games despite OL coach Callahan calling plays. Improvement in Ram offense is obvious, with five TD drives of 80+ yards already, but none of less than 80, so defense/special teams have to step up and make life easier. This will be as close to a home game as Bradford gets in NFL; he averaged 7.9/6.4 per pass attempt in first two games, without getting sacked. From 1973-80, these teams met six times in eight years, just in playoff games.
Cardinals (1-1) @ Saints (2-0)—New Orleans escaped by skin of teeth two weeks in row but was much better on offense in home opener, averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt, compared to 5.9 in rain-delayed road opener last week. Payton covered last nine games as Superdome favorite (they were 3-3 LY, when Payton was suspended); since ’08, Saints are 16-5-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites. Arizona fought back from down 21-10 to win home opener last week, throwing for 261 yards, even with Fitzgerald hampered by leg injury; they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 games as road underdog, but over last 10+ years, Arizona is just 23-36-1 vs spread coming off a win. Teams haven’t met since 2010; Cardinals lost five of last six visits here, last of which was 45-14 loss in ’09 playoff game, Kurt Warner’s last NFL game, and Redbirds’ last playoff game. Cardinals’ last win on Bourbon Street was in 1996.
Lions (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)— Desperate times for Washington team that was outscored 50-7 in first half of first two games; they’ve already allowed nine offensive TDs, four on drives of less than 50 yards. Debate rages whether RGIII is hurt or if his knee brace is hindering him; they’ve outscored foes 40-21 in second half, but cow was out of barn in both games by then. Defense allowed 402 rushing yards in first two games; since ’06, Washington is 8-18-1 as a home favorite. Detroit is 5-10-1 in game following its last 16 losses, 10-13-2 as road dog under Schwartz, First outdoor game for Lion squad that blew 21-10 lead on road last week, wasting a defensive TD; Detroit has twice as many penalty yards (189-92) as its opponents; Home teams won 11 of last 13 series games; Lions lost their last 20 visits here; last time this franchise beat Redskins on road was in 1935, when Skins were based in Boston. Oy.
Packers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)—Short week for Cincy after beating rival Steelers Monday, just their second home win in last dozen tries vs Pitt; in comes Green Bay with much more potent offense than Steelers- Rodgers passed for 480 yards last week, had 322 at halftime- they averaged 8.3/9.6 yards/pass attempt in first two games. Bengals lead seldom-played series 6-5; Pack lost three of four visits here, with only win in 1998. Since ’10, Bengals are just 12-13 SU at home; they’re 15-8-1 in last 24 games where spread was 3 or less points, 13-6-2 vs NFC teams and 16-6 in game following their last 22 wins. Under McCarthy, Green Bay is 22-14-2 in games where spread was 3 or less, 17-7 in last 24 games vs AFC and 15-10 in game following their last 25 wins. This season, AFC teams are off to 5-1 start vs NFC. Packers ended 2.5-year streak last week of not having a 100-yard runner in any game when Starks broke century mark vs Redskins.
Giants (0-2) @ Panthers (0-2)— Two desperate teams battle for first win here. Giants allowed 77 points in first two games, turning ball over ten times (-8); its tough for an immobile QB when his OL isn’t very good, and injuries have damaged Giants’ OL. Big Blue has already allowed two defensive scores and a TD on a punt return. Since 2006, Giants are 14-7-1 vs spread as road underdog of 3 or less points. Panthers are 8-17 SU in last 25 home games, 4-4 as home favorite under Rivera; Carolina lost its first two games by total of six points, allowing Buffalo’s rookie QB to drive 80 yards in last minute last week to win game on final play. Teams split eight series games, with five of last six meetings decided by 13+ points with average total in last four, 51.0; Giants (+2.5) waxed Carolina here 36-7 in Week 3 LY, thanks to a +5 turnover margin. Thru two games this year, Giants have run ball only 33 times for 73 yards (2.2/carry) and dropped back to pass 95 times.
Falcons (1-1) @ Dolphins (2-0)—Miami starts season with pair of road wins; they didn’t have penalty in win at Indy last week. Fish outscored first two opponents 24-6 in second half after not leading either game at halftime. Dolphins are just 2-8 in last ten home openers, failing to cover last three tries as a favorite in HO’s. Under Smith, Falcons are 23-10-2 in games where spread was 3 or less points; Miami is 6-3 under Philbin in those type games. Atlanta dropped back to pass 86 times in first two games, with only 30 runs and now new RB Jackson is hurt already- they’ve won three of last four games with Miami, after losing six of first seven; they’re 2-5 in south Florida, with last visit in ’05. Average total in last three meetings was 29.3. Falcons are 21-11 vs spread in last 32 games on grass. Over is 8-3 in Miami’s last 11 home openers, with last four going over the total. Falcons are a better team than either club Miami beat so far, but enthusiasm is high for the Dolphins.
Colts (1-1) @ 49ers (1-1)—Coach Harbaugh faces team he once led to playoffs as its QB; 49ers got drilled 29-3 in Seattle last week- since ’09, Niners are 17-5-3 in game following a loss, 5-1-1 under Harbaugh. 23 penalties for 206 yards in two games is red flag for SF, Luck returns to Bay Area with Indy squad that lost last three road openers, by 10-27-20 points; Indy is 1-10-1 vs spread last 12 times they were a dog in a road opener. Colts are 13-25 on 3rd down in two games, with only six total penalties; they’ve won last two games in this seldom-played series that was divisional rivalry in late 60’s. Indy lost four of last five visits here, winning 28-3 in ’05. Indy is 16-11-1 vs spread in last 28 games on grass, 11-6 in last 17 games as non-divisional road dog, 4-2 in last six as double digit dog. 49ers played Pack/Seattle to open season, so this is actually step down in class for them; SF is 9-1 as non-divisional HF under Harbaugh, 4-3 as double digit favorite.
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NFL betting Week 3 preview: Hot bets and moving odds
Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 3’s NFL action.
Crazy things tend to happen just before the bye weeks begin. With that in mind, we should have known Week 3 was going to give us all we could handle. All we have to deal with is one of the biggest pointspreads in NFL history and a trade involving a No. 3 overall pick in the peak of his career.
All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 19.
For Richer or Poorer
The Cleveland Browns stunned the NFL world by trading running back Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts Wednesday evening. The move shifted the Browns from +5.5 at Minnesota before the trade to +7 as of Thursday morning, but we’re seeing 89 percent of the action coming in on the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Colts dropped from +10.5 at San Francisco to +10, even though Richardson’s playing status for Week 3 is up in the air. Super Bowl futures also felt the impact of the trade with Indianapolis moving from +5000 to win it all to +4500 while Cleveland dropped from +17500 to +26100.
Playing Favorites
After the Seahawks manhandled the 49ers last week, you knew Seattle was going to be a massive favorite when hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. But a 20-point favorite? Actually, the Seahawks opened at -17.5 and were quickly bet up to -20 just a little more than five hours later. Since then, the market has come back a bit on the Jaguars to put the line at Seattle -19, but there is still a ton of support for the Seahawks. At this point Seattle bets are outnumbering Jacksonville wagers by a 2:1 clip.
Bust a Move
The Jacksonville-Seattle game isn’t the only matchup with a big line on the board. Denver opened as a 14.5-point favorite at home to Oakland and we’ve seen that line bump up to -15 already as bettors pile on the 2-0 Broncos. That total has moved from 49.5 points to 50, to become the second 50-point total of the week.
Meanwhile, the over/under for Thursday’s Andy Reid homecoming in Philadelphia is also above 50 and has moved from 50.5 to 51 in the last 24 hours.
Another line to keep a close eye on is Detroit at Washington. The Redskins opened as 2-point favorites but have bounced around to -2.5, down to -1, back up to -2.5 and back to -2, where the line currently sits. If it stays there is anyone’s guess at this point.
Who’s hot, who’s not
The Giants head into Carolina as 1-point underdogs and 91 percent of Sports Interaction’s betting public is all over the G-Men.
Bettors can’t get enough of the Atlanta Falcons either, who are set as 2-point underdogs at Miami. The Falcons, without the services of Steven Jackson (thigh) are seeing 90 percent of the action.
Houston is another popular bet. The Texans (-2.5) are seeing 78 percent of the action as they head into Baltimore.
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 3:
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-1, 45.5)
Giants’ deep threats vs. Panthers’ thinning secondary
When they’re not busy coughing the ball up, the Giants have been able to explode for big gains. New York leads the league in passing (390.5 ypg) but more importantly averages 14.2 yards per completion, and has struck for 12 plays of 20-plus yards through the first two games.
Carolina has given up 8.2 yards per pass attempt – fourth highest in the NFL – against Seattle and Buffalo – two conservative passing attacks. On top of facing the Giants’ deep threats, the Panthers secondary is a mess, with five DBs on injury watch his week and two S going on IR.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)
Cardinals’ red-zone defense vs. Saints’ red-zone offense
The Saints offense has stalled to start the schedule, averaging just 19.5 points through the first two games. The problem is the red-zone attack, which has punched the ball into the end zone only once and has a TD percentage of just 14.29 percent inside the 20-yard line.
Arizona’s underrated defense was among the best at shutting the door in the red zone last year, holding foes to a 44.44 TD percentage inside the 20-yard line (third lowest in the league). This year, the Cardinals have allowed three touchdowns on five trips inside their own red zone but have been able to lockdown the run. Arizona has budged for only 58 total yards on the ground – third fewest in the league.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44.5)
Falcons' fourth-quarter falloff vs. Dolphins' fourth-quarter frenzy
The Dolphins’ surprise 2-0 start has a lot to do with their ability to close out games in the final frame. Miami hasn’t allowed a single point in the fourth quarter in its first two outings and is limiting opponents to an average of three second-half points heading into Week 3.
The Falcons offense is fading down the stretch. After building quick leads in the first two quarters – 17.0 points per first half (fourth in NFL) – Atlanta has run out of gas in the closing 30 minutes. The Falcons average seven points in the second half – just 3.5 in the fourth quarter – through the first two games of the year.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19, 40.5)
Jaguars’ coach Gus Bradley vs. Seahawks’ No. 1 defense
Just like how Dr. Frankenstein had to face his monstrous creation, Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley takes on a Seahawks stop unit he helped mold. The former Seattle defensive coordinator was with the franchise for four years and knows the ins and outs when it comes to his pupil Dan Quinn, Seattle’s new DC.
The Seahawks stop unit has picked up the slack for Seattle’s lack of scoring pop. Seattle’s offense shot itself in the foot with 10 penalties in Week 2 and is picking up just 18.5 first downs per game (20th in the NFL), sandwiching them between two teams with rookie QBs at the helm – Buffalo and New York. If the defense is exposed by its original architect, the Seahawks offense may not have enough fire power to cover this massive spread.
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Cowherd's blazing 5
YTD Record 2-7-1
Giants +1
San Diego +3
Rams +4
Packers -2.5
Jets -2.5
Bonus Pick
Jax +19.5
Wiseguys
Giants - Disagreement
San Diego - Slight Disagreement
Rams - Strongest Agreement
Packers - Agreement
Jets - Agreement
Jax - Agreement
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Hondo
nyg
buf
sd
MIN
tb
hou
DAL
NO
WSH
gb
MIA
ind
jax
PIT
oak
BB's = buf, MIN
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NFLBettingPicks
Kevin
Added play
2 UNIT = 6-Point Teaser - RAMS +10 and STEELERS +9 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
This teaser was bet at bodog.eu or bovada.lv for Americans (same company just different websites for each country). My limits were $275 on this bet there, but I'm not sure if that is the limits for everyone. This same teaser is available at 5dimes.eu by choosing "6.5 teaser - ties reduce" but will be priced at -120 or Bookmaker.eu by selecting 6 point NFL teaser and buying the half point when asked. bodog/Bovada have the Rams listed at +4, which is why they are the best place to make the bet.
I know a few of you can't do teasers. Although I highly recommend one of the sites above where you can make teasers, if you can't make a teaser bet I would recommend 1 unit on each St Louis +4 and Pittsburgh +3 -120.
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Gamblers Data (Fletcher)
3* Packers-2.5
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: St. Louis at Dallas (Friday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: St. Louis +4 (-110) at bovada
Dallas is a puzzling team. When you look at the QB Tony Romo, who has one of the highest career passer ratings in NFL history, and the talent on both sides of the ball, it is hard to believe that this team is just 17-17 in their last 34 games. If not for the gift of six Giants turnovers in their opener, the Cowboys would be 0-2 coming into this game. Sometimes you have to wonder if the coaching staff is not doing a very good job with the level of talent present. They have a new stadium, one in which they should thrive in at home, but they are an ugly 2-10 ATS here in their last 12 games. They don't cover because they are a team that operates on a razor thin margin for error. The last 12 Cowboys' wins show five by 3 points or less, three others by 5 points, and a pair by a TD or less. St. Louis was a pick-6 away from being even with Atlanta on the road, and they out-gained the Falcons for the game. This is a team that is ready to breakthrough as Sam Bradford matures into a bona fide NFL QB. Before Bradford the Rams rarely went for 350+ yard in a game, but since his arrival they are now 10-2 ATS after going for 350+ in their previous contest. Through two weeks, the Rams look like the better team. This one should go to the wire, and the points will be big. Jeff Fisher is 60% ATS in his career as a dog. And, Dallas is a terrible favorite, having gone 7-21-1 ATS since 2010 when laying points. Take the Rams here.
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sixth sense
san diego
tampa bay
ny giants
st louis
over gb
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ivey walters
2% green bay
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Jimmy Boyd
5*(NFL) Washington Redskins -2.5
4*(NFL) Redskins/Lions OVER 48.5
3*(NFL) Giants/Panthers OVER 46.5
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PREFERRED
big play
BALTIMORE
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