-
NFL Prop Shop: Week 3's Best Player Prop Bets
by Sean Murphy
Don’t limit your NFL wagering to just sides and totals. Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his favorite player prop picks for Week 3.
Most Passing Yards
Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) vs. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)
Let's try this again, shall we? We missed with Joe Flacco last week as he was out-gunned (I use that term loosely) by Browns QB Brandon Weeden.
The critics of Flacco and the Ravens’ passing game have come out in full force this week. I suggest that they relax. It's still far too early for the Ravens or Flacco to push the panic button.
While most expect to see the Ravens lean heavily on their ground game against a vaunted Texans defense, I believe we'll see quite the opposite. If you're going to beat the Texans, you're going to need to go over the top, and I'm confident we'll see plenty of Flacco to Torrey Smith hook-ups Sunday afternoon.
Take: Flacco
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)
With the Colts acquiring Trent Richardson in a shocking deal with the Browns, most are counting on them to run the football early and often against the 49ers Sunday.
Keep in mind, it's going to take some time for Richardson to get acclimated with the Colts playbook and despite all the hoopla, we're still talking about a guy that's averaging just 3.5 yards per rush over the course of his career.
I think we'll see Indianapolis attack the San Francisco defense predominantly through the air. Andrew Luck had a huge first half against Miami but struggled down the stretch. He's a fiery competitor and I'm confident he'll make amends this week.
This is the game where I see Colin Kaepernick exploding on the ground. The 49ers’ aerial attack is still a work in progress with WR Michael Crabtree sidelined. San Francisco will score in bunches, but Kaepernick won't put up gaudy passing numbers.
Take: Luck
Most Rushing Rards
James Starks (Green Bay Packers) vs. Giovanni Bernard (Cincinnati Bengals)
Giovanni Bernard was the breakout star Monday night and that's opened up some value for us fading him in this prop matchup Sunday afternoon.
Bernard accounted for both of the Bengals’ touchdowns against the Steelers, but he still wasn't the team's leading rusher, only carrying the ball eight times for 38 yards. He'll once again split carries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis Sunday.
With Eddie Lacy banged up, the bulk of the Packers’ carries will be handed to James Starks. He ran for 132 yards in last week's rout of the Redskins and knows that this is his opportunity to grab the reins as the Packers feature back.
Take: Starks
Most Pass Receptions
Nate Burleson (Detroit Lions) vs. Pierre Garcon (Washington Redskins)
The Redskins offense has really stumbled through the first two weeks but I'm anticipating a breakout performance against Detroit.
With RGIII still struggling to get into form as far as running the football goes, Pierre Garcon should be the focal point of the offense against a beatable Lions secondary.
Nate Burleson has 13 catches through two games this season but I don't expect him to keep up that pace. The Redskins defense won't be able to take away Calvin Johnson, but I do expect them to keep the veteran Burleson under wraps.
Take: Garcon
-
CHASE DIAMOND
8* NFL KILLER CLUB
Houston vs. Baltimore
Point Spread: Baltimore+3/-140
-
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
NFLTAMPA BAY at NEW ENGLAND
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
NFLGREEN BAY at CINCINNATI
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game
39-26 over the last 10 seasons. ( 60.0% 0.0 units )
NFLARIZONA at NEW ORLEANS
Play On - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
-
Bears at Steelers What Bettors Need to Know
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 40.5)
After two straight home victories, the Chicago Bears look to remain undefeated as they take to the road to face the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Chicago is fortunate to enter Week 3 as one of the league's eight remaining unbeaten teams, as it defeated the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings by a combined four points. The Bears haven't begun a season with three consecutive victories since 2010, when they went on to play in the NFC championship game.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is attempting to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2000. The Steelers have been ineffective offensively, rushing for only 75 yards while scoring a total of 19 points over their first two contests. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has yet to take charge of a game, completing only 58.6 percent of his passes and throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions while being sacked seven times.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: The Steelers opened +1. The total opened at 39.5 and is currently 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.
ABOUT THE BEARS (2-0): Chicago is 20-7-1 in the all-time series, which includes a franchise-record 13-game winning streak from 1934-49. Devin Hester has shown no signs of slowing down, as he registered a team-record 249 yards on kick returns in Sunday's triumph over Minnesota. Running back Matt Forte is one of two players in the NFL with over 5,000 yards rushing and 2,000 receiving since joining the league in 2008.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-2): Injuries have played a large role in Pittsburgh's struggles, with running back Le'Veon Bell (foot) and tight end Heath Miller (knee) missing each of the first two games and center Maurkice Pouncey (knee), running back LaRod Stephens-Howling (knee) and linebacker Larry Foote (bicep) suffering season-ending injuries in the opener. The Steelers have won five of their last six home meetings with the Bears dating back to 1967. Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery is two receptions shy of 400 for his career.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.
* Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Bears last four games overall.
* Under is 14-3 in Steelers last 17 home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Only Jacksonville (11) and Cleveland (16) have scored fewer points than Pittsburgh.
2. The Bears snapped their three-game losing streak against the Steelers in their last meeting, posting a 17-14 triumph at home on Sept. 20, 2009.
3. Chicago QB Jay Cutler has been sacked just once thus far after hitting the ground nine times over the first two games last season.
-
Todays Best Bets
5* - [394] Minnesota Vikings -6.5 +105 vs Cleveland Browns
5* - [398] Baltimore Ravens +2.5 -110 vs Houston Texans
5* - [404] Washington Redskins PK -130 vs Detroit Lions
5* - [405] Green Bay Packers -2.5 -120 vs Cincinnati Bengals
4* - [407] New York Giants -1.5 -105 vs Carolina Panthers
-
Essential betting tidbits for Week 3 of the NFL
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between the Texans and Ravens. Texans are 1-point road faves.
- The Texans have started the season 0-2 ATS. The last time they started 0-2 ATS was the 2008 season. They covered in Week 3 and finished the season 8-8 SU and ATS.
- New York Giants QB Eli Manning leads the NFL with seven interceptions through his first two games; three more than next closest.
- Panthers QB Cam Newton has faced the Giants just once. His 40.6 QB rating is the lowest against any opponent he's faced. The Panthers are 1-point home dogs.
- The Washington Redskins defense is dead last in the NFL allowing 511.5 yards per game and third-last in the NFL allowing 71 points. Skins host the Lions with a total of 48.5.
- The Lions are 0-4 ATS in the previous four meetings in Washington. Matchup is currently listed as a pick.
- The San Diego Chargers have won nine-straight games SU against the Tennessee Titans are are 8-1 ATS in that stretch. Chargers are 2.5-point road dogs Sunday.
- The Titans own the league's least effective passing game. Tennessee is last in the NFL with just 246 passing yards.
- The home team is 4-0 ATS in the previous four meetings between the Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 9-point home faves.
- The Cardinals have lost eight straight road games overall and are 4-3-1 ATS over that stretch.
- Pats QB Tom Brady is 2-0 in his career versus Tampa Bay. Brady is 43-of-63 for 566 yards and has six TD passes and two INTs in those games. His 114.9 QB rating versus the Bucs is higher than any other opponent.
- Meanwhile, Bucs QB Josh Freeman's rating of 63.0 is fourth lowest in the league. Only Brandon Weeden (62.0), Geno Smith (55.2) and Blaine Gabbert (30.8) have worse ratings. The Bucs are 8.5-point road dogs Sunday.
- The Green Bay Packers secondary could be without CB Tramon Williams, S Morgan Burnett and CB Casey Hayward against Cincinnati. The Pack already own the league's third-worst passing defense yielding 359 yards per game.
- The Bengals are 0-5 O/U in their last five games at Paul Brown Stadium. The total for the matchup with Green Bay is currently 49.5.
- Not a marquee matchup of rushing offenses when the Cowboys host the Rams Sunday. St. Louis ranks 25th in the league, while Dallas ranks 26th.
- The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games but are 1-0 ATS at home so far in 2013. Dallas is a 3.5-point home fave with the Rams in town.
- Vikes QB Christian Ponder saves his best for AFC opposition. Ponder is 88-for-127 passing with five touchdowns and two interceptions in his last four games against the AFC. Vikes are 6.5-point faves as they host the Browns.
- Brian Hoyer will get the start for the Browns as Brandon Weeden nurses a thumb injury. Hoyer made two appearances last season with the Cardinals and both were losses.
- The Dolphins are 2-0 SU and have not been 3-0 since the 2002 season. Miami is a 1-point home against the visiting Atlanta Falcons.
- The Falcons will be without RB Steven Jackson who has a thigh injury. Duties will fall to Jacquizz Rodgers who has 17 yards on 11 carries (1.5 avg) and Jason Snelling who has 19 yards on two carries.
- The New York Jets are 14-2 O/U in their last 16 games in Week 3. Total with the Bills in town is currently 38.5.
- Bills QB EJ Manuel is the first rookie quarterback to post a passer rating of 89 or better in each of his first two NFL games.
- Despite just joining the team, the Colts say Trent Richardson will get plenty of carries against the 49ers. Indy is already fifth in the league averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
- The 49ers are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five regular season matchups versus AFC opposition. Niners are 10-point home faves against the visiting Colts.
- The last time the Seattle Seahawks faced the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars (2009), Seattle was victorious 41-0. The Seahawks are 19-point home faves as they welcome the Jags to CenturyLink Field.
- Jacksonville has scored 11 points through its first two games. Seattle's top-ranked defense has allowed just 10.
- The Bears are 2-0 to start the campaign. The last time they began 3-0 (2010) they played in the NFC championship game.
- The Steelers are 0-4 O/U in their last four games and 3-14 O/U in their last 17 home games. Total is 40.5 as they face the visiting Bears.
-
Packers at Bengals: What bettors need to know
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, 49.5)
The Cincinnati Bengals feel that Monday night's win over rival Pittsburgh signaled a changing of the guard in the AFC North. No longer the Steelers' patsies, Cincinnati now battles one of the NFC's powers when it hosts Green Bay on Sunday afternoon. The Bengals may still have concerns at quarterback but their backfield tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard certainly delivered on Monday.
It's no secret what Green Bay's top-ranked offense brings to battle. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was masterful picking apart the Washington secondary a week ago. Rodgers, who has won eight of his past 10 starts against AFC teams, racked up a career-high 480 yards through the air despite hardly throwing a pass in the fourth quarter and he could find plenty of room against an injury-riddled Cincinnati defense.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -3. O/U: 48.5.
LINE: The Bengals opened +1 and are currently +2.5. The total opened at 48 and is now 49.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s and wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-1): Green Bay raced out to a 31-0 lead and cruised to the lopsided win over Washington. While Rodgers' performance was typical, the Packers got a surprising 132-yard effort on the ground from running back James Starks, who replaced Eddie Lacy after the rookie left the game with a concussion. Starks became the first back in the past 45 Packer games to go over the century mark and he'll likely get the call again as second-round pick Lacy has yet to be medically cleared.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-1): Bernard looked explosive in catching one scoring pass and running for another TD in the Bengals' 20-10 win over the Steelers. Cincinnati has won the past two meetings against Green Bay and sacked Rodgers six times in its most recent game (2009) but it will be without veteran defensive end Robert Geathers who joined three Bengal linebackers on injured reserve. While questions still abound on Andy Dalton's deep passing ability, he has thrown for 280 and 282 yards in his first two starts and unveiled a new weapon in athletic rookie tight end Tyler Eifert on Monday.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 3.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.
* Under is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 games following a ATS win.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Packers were forced to juggle their secondary last week after three DBs suffered hamstring injuries. All are questionable for Sunday.
2. Green Bay ranks 30th in passing defense, yielding an average of 359 yards.
3. The Bengals were just 4-4 at home last season.
-
English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet
A few more intriguing matchups on the board Sunday compared to what we saw Saturday in the Barclay's Premier League. The Gunners will look to maintain their early form as they host Stoke. Plus the blue half and red half of Manchester clash as City host United in the Manchester Derby.
We talk to Aron Black at bet365 to find where action is on some of the hotter fixtures.
Arsenal v Stoke (-275, +425, +900)
Why bet Arsenal: After dropping their opening match to Aston Villa, the Gunners have reeled off three-straight wins in the league and could leapfrog Liverpool to the top of the table with a victory. Olivier Giroud and Mesut Özil were doubtful midweek against Marseille but started in the Champions League matchup and will look to return to their spots in the starting XI against the Potters.
Key players out/doubtful: Tomas Rosicky, Yaya Sanogo, Lukas Podolski, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Abou Diaby
Why bet Stoke: The Potters have quietly put together a great start to their season with two wins and a draw. They sit ninth in the table and are coming off a 0-0 draw with Man City.
Key players out/doubtful: Glenn Whelan, Marc Muniesa, Jamie Ness
2012-13 fixture result: Arsenal 1, Stoke 0
Key betting note: Arsenal has won all five of its home matches against Stoke at the Emirates Stadium.
Where the action is: "Arsene Wenger is back in the good books of the Arsenal faithful for now, and record signing Mesut Ozil has obviously helped that. It’s a tough game to call, but money so far says that Arsenal take the three points, but there are more than enough who like the tasty price of +900 about the upset."
Crystal Palace v Swansea (+240, +240, +130)
Why bet Palace: The Premier League new boys have no other aspirations than to just stay up when all is said and done. To do that, Palace will need to collect as many points as possible at home ground Selhurst Park. Swansea could be fatigued having played away to Valencia in Europa League action midweek.
Key players out/doubtful: Glenn Murray, Kagisho Dikgacoi, Yannick Bolasie, Jonathan Parr, Patrick McCarthy, Jonathan Williams
Why bet Swansea: Manager Michael Laudrup and his Swansea side might just be finding their stride. A win and a draw in their last two league matches and an ultra-impressive 3-0 victory against La Liga side Valencia midweek will have the Swans beaming with confidence. Michu and Bony both notched goals in Spain and the side needs those two to continue the goalscoring in league action.
Key players out/doubtful: Pablo Hernández, Neil Taylor
2012-13 fixture result: N/A
Key betting note: Crystal Palace has only connected on four crosses into the box this season; lowest total in the league.
Cardiff v Tottenham (+350, +260, -110)
Why bet Cardiff: Of all promoted teams, Cardiff look the most ready to stay up in the Premier League. The side has already defeated Manchester City and is coming off a pair of draws versus Hull and Everton. They are a young side that will only gain in confidence with each positive result.
Key players out/doubtful: David Marshall, Andreas Cornelius
Why bet Tottenham: Spurs have had one hiccup - the loss against bitter rival Arsenal - but might be finding their identity as new players begin to click. Gylfi Sigurdsson notched a pair of goals in the club's 2-0 victory over Norwich one week ago. But new signing Christian Eriksen might be the difference maker - the true No. 10 - the side has desperately needed. His late goal midweek versus Tromsø could be his "I've arrived" statement.
Key players out/doubtful: Etienne Capoue, Aaron Lennon, Nacer Chadli
2012-13 fixture result: N/A
Key betting note: These two clubs have managed just four goals in open play through eight league games this season.
Manchester City v Manchester United (+120, +240, +260)
Why bet City: The Citizens are coming off a disappointing 0-0 draw versus Stoke in the league, but a 3-0 win over Viktoria Plzen in Champions League might be a springboard to some positive, consecutive performances. Consistency has been lacking for City early this season but the Manchester Derby is a feisty one and City will be out for blood and bragging rights.
Key players out/doubtful: Mart*n Demichelis, Micah Richards
Why bet United: United is also coming off a big Champions League victory midweek, winning 4-2 over German side Bayer Leverkusen. The Red Devils have similarily sputtered out of the gate in the league and David Moyes and Co. must find some consistency in their play before they fall further back.
Key players out/doubtful: Darren Fletcher, Rafael, Phil Jones, Danny Welbeck
2012-13 fixture result: Manchester City 2, Manchester United 3
Key betting note: Six of the last seven meetings between these two clubs at City's Etihad Stadium have yielded fewer than two goals.
Where the action is: "As is often the case in these big derby/rivalry matches, the books will be hoping for a draw, as the money on both sides is big. This is a game that pits two of the best teams in the prem, and both are obviously title contenders."
-
Lions at Roughriders: What bettors need to know
BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-5.5, 53)
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are facing their biggest adversity of the season after dropping consecutive games for the first time and losing league-leading running back Kory Sheets to a sprained knee. The Roughriders will try to maintain their position in the West Division when they host the BC Lions on Sunday. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant, who threw for 369 yards last week but was also intercepted three times, will be looked upon to carry the offense in Sheets’ absence.
The Lions could tie second-place Saskatchewan in the standings with a victory, but will be without starting quarterback Travis Lulay (arm injury). Lulay will miss at least two games, leaving the starting spot open for backup Thomas DeMarco or recently acquired veteran pivot Buck Pierce. Without Lulay, BC running back Andrew Harris will likely play a bigger role in the offense after having his carries limited recently by minor injuries.
TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, TSN
ABOUT THE LIONS (7-4): DeMarco has completed 6-of-11 passes for 57 yards and one touchdown in spot duty this season, while also running for a touchdown. Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux (649) and slotbacks Nick Moore (642) and Courtney Taylor (572) have caught over 500 receiving yards. Kick returner Tim Brown is second in the league with 1,361 combined return yards and has provided BC with good field position all season - a role that becomes ever more vital in Lulay’s absence.
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (8-3): Slotback Geroy Simon will face his old team for the first time on Sunday. Simon recorded 14,756 of his record 16,128 career receiving yards with BC and is five catches away from tying Ben Cahoon for the CFL all-time reception record. Slotback Weston Dressler - Saskatchewan’s third-leading receiver - missed last week’s game but should return to the lineup on Sunday. Linebacker Renauld Williams, who will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, was missed last week by the Roughriders, who allowed a season-high 31 points at home.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Saskatchewan.
* Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Roughriders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Lions last four games in Week 13.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Saskatchewan S Tyron Brackenridge was fined an undisclosed amount by the league for a dangerous hit to the head of Toronto RB Chad Kackert in last week’s game.
2. Pierce began his CFL career with the Lions, starting 34 games over five seasons.
3. The Roughriders are 4-1 at home. BC is 1-4 on the road.
-
Bryan Leonard 3*
NY Giants +1
-
Sunday's NFL Week 3 betting cheat sheet: Early action
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)
Star receiver Andre Johnson suffered a concussion in the game against the Titans but is expected to be cleared to play. Johnson is tied for the NFL lead with 20 receptions and Houston appears to have found a sensational complement in first-round pick DeAndre Hopkins (12 receptions, 183 yards).
Baltimore has a key player ailing in running back Ray Rice, who injured his left hip flexor in the contest against Cleveland and hasn’t participated in practices. “He’s not going to need the practice to play in the game,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said.
LINE: Houston opened -2.5 and moved to -1.5. Total moved from 44.5 to 45.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (-5.0) - Baltimore (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens +1
WEATHER: Temperatures mid 70s, partly cloudy, winds NNW 11 mph.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1, 46.5)
New York's 10 turnovers - seven of which have been Eli Manning interceptions - are a major cause for concern and have put the defense in a tough spot. The offense has been effective at moving the ball, mostly through the air, and ranks fifth in the league in total yards, but the ground game has to come along and the Giants need to hang onto the ball.
The Panthers find themselves in an 0-2 hole after losing their first two games by a combined six points, including a 24-23 defeat against Buffalo last week. The Panthers have been balanced on offense but they've been far from explosive, ranking 27th in the league with 280.5 total yards per game.
LINE: Carolina opened -1 and moved to +1. Total moved from 45.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-1.0) + Carolina (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +1
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, 22 percent chance of early showers, winds 5 north 5 mph.
TRENDS:
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick, 48.5)
Detroit is 2-0 against Washington under coach Jim Schwartz, with both victories coming at home. Calvin Johnson had 101 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-25 triumph over the Redskins in their last meeting on Oct. 31, 2010.
Facing a large deficit, the Redskins have been offensive juggernauts in the fourth quarter, outscoring Philadelphia and Green Bay by a combined 26-0 over the final 15 minutes.
LINE: Open pick bounced between -1 and +1. Total moved from 48 to 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (+1.0) - Washington (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins -1.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NNW 12 mph.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Washington.
San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 43.5)
Philip Rivers leads a rejuvenated offense that is averaging more than 30 points per game. The only problem: San Diego has allowed as many points as it has scored, thanks to a defense that has surrendered the most passing yards in the league through two weeks.
The Tennessee Titans' defense has helped compensate for a sluggish offense through the first two games of the season. Titans RB Chris Johnson comes into the week ranked sixth in rushing yards (166) but second in attempts (50), averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.
LINE: Opened Tennessee -1 and moved to -3. Total steady at 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+2.0) - Tennessee (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -2
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, clear skies, winds NNE 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Chargers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)
Carson Palmer has injected some life into Arizona's passing game, but the ground game hasn't been as effective and running back Rashard Mendenhall (toe) is questionable. Palmer should have tight end Rob Housler back in the lineup after missing the first two games with a sore ankle, and the Cardinals have eased receiver Larry Fitzgerald along in practice in hopes he can play through a hamstring injury.
While the Saints' offense has struggled to find the end zone, coordinator Rob Ryan's revamped defense has limited its first two opponents to 320 yards and 15.5 points per game. The overhauled defense did a solid job against Atlanta in Week 1 but was dominant in a 16-14 win versus Tampa Bay, allowing 273 total yards - the Saints' lowest total since Week 15 of the 2011 season.
LINE: Arizona opened -9.5 and moved to -7. Total moved from 48.5 to 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+3.5) + New Orleans (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -9.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last four meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (-8.5, 43.5)
Quarterback Josh Freeman is under siege after consecutive subpar outings - he was only 9-for-22 for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Saints - to spark speculation that he could lose his starting job to rookie Mike Glennon. The Buccaneers have dangerous weapons in second-year running back Doug Martin (209 yards rushing) and wideout Vincent Jackson (231 yards receiving), and the defense has been stout in allowing an average of 17 points.
With wideout Danny Amendola (groin) and running back Shane Vereen (wrist) set to miss a second straight game and tight end Rob Gronkowski still rehabbing from multiple offseason surgeries, Tom Brady has been forced to lean on Julian Edelman (20 receptions) and untested rookies in the receiving corps. Starting running back Steven Ridley has rushed for only 86 yards in two games while the defense has forced six turnovers to tie for second in the league.
LINE: Open New England -7 and moved to -8.5. Total moved from 45 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+4.0) + New England (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -11.5
WEATHER: Temps low 70s, 83 percent chance of rain, winds WSW 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Patriots' last 10 home games.
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, 49)
While Aaron Rodgers' Week 2 performance was typical, the Packers got a surprising 132-yard effort on the ground from running back James Starks, who replaced Eddie Lacy after the rookie left the game with a concussion. The Packers were forced to juggle their secondary last week after three DBs suffered hamstring injuries. All are questionable for Sunday.
Cincinnati has won the past two meetings against Green Bay and sacked Rodgers six times in its most recent game (2009) but it will be without veteran defensive end Robert Geathers who joined three Bengal linebackers on injured reserve. While questions still abound on Andy Dalton's deep passing ability, he has thrown for 280 and 282 yards in his first two starts and unveiled a new weapon in athletic rookie tight end Tyler Eifert on Monday.
LINE: Cincinnati opened +1 and moved to +2.5. Total moved from 46.5 to 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.0) - Cincinnati (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals +1.5
WEATHER: Temps high 60s, clear skies, winds NNE 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 3.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)
St. Louis is attempting to start 2-1 for the first time since 2006. The Rams will look for more consistency out of high-priced free agent signing Jared Cook, who caught seven passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 but managed only one grab last weekend.
The last time the Cowboys faced the Rams, DeMarco Murray rushed for a franchise-record 253 yards on Oct. 23, 2011. However, Murray only managed 25 yards on 12 attempts in last week's loss to the Chiefs, a game in which Dallas was unable to force any turnovers after creating six miscues against the New York Giants in Week 1.
LINE: Dallas steady at -3.5. Total moved from 46.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+2.5) + Dallas (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -3
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 40.5)
Cleveland was already struggling to produce offense with just 16 points in two games and trading RB Trent Richardson, who recorded 950 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns as a rookie, gives an offense starting a third-string quarterback even fewer options. Brian Hoyer starts in place of Brandon Weeden, who injured his thumb in last week's loss to Baltimore.
Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder, who was 16-of-30 against Chicago, is reportedly on the hot seat and could lose snaps to backup Matt Cassel unless his play improves. Ponder is 88-for-127 passing with five touchdowns and two interceptions in his last four games against AFC opponents.
LINE: Minnesota opened -4 and moved to -6.5. Total moved from 41 to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+5.0) - Minnesota (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Vikings -5.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Browns last six road games.
-
Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals at Brewers
by Steve Merril
Sunday Night Baseball takes us to the NL Central where the Brewers are hosting the surging Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (+155, 8.5)
KELLY KEEPS IT GOING FOR ST. LOUIS
Joe Kelly is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA for St. Louis this season. Kelly has been dealing with a strained calf and he is questionable for this start. The righty has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last seven starts. The Cardinals’ starter does not go deep into games as he has not pitched more than six innings in his last ten outings. Kelly just saw the Brewers at home on September 12th in a game he lost 5-3. He allowed four runs and seven hits in just five innings with four strikeouts and one walk.
WILD WILY PERALTA
Wily Peralta is 10-15 with a 4.34 ERA for Milwaukee. He has been a roller coaster of a starter this season. Peralta has allowed three runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Brewers’ pitcher lost to the Cardinals back on September 10th after giving up three runs and two hits in just over six innings. He faced St. Louis twice in May and gave up 13 runs and 22 hits in those two games. He has electric stuff striking out six or more in four straight games, but he is also prone to bouts of wildness.
INJURY REPORT
St. Louis has a few key players on the injured list. Allen Craig has a sprained left foot and he is out indefinitely. Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, and Jason Motte are all done for the season due to shoulder and elbow ailments. Rafael Furcal is done for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Milwaukee’s biggest absence isn’t an injury, but a suspension as Ryan Braun is suspended for 65 games for his involvement in the Biogenesis clinic. The Brewers are also without Rickie Weeks (hamstring) and Corey Hart (knee).
TRENDS
Cardinals are 9-1 in Kelly’s last 10 starts
Cardinals are 5-2 Over in their last 7 Sunday games
Brewers are 2-5 in Peralta’s last 7 starts
Brewers are 7-1 Under in Peralta’s last 8 Sunday starts
HITTERS TO WATCH
Matt Carpenter 4-for-8 vs. Peralta
Jon Jay 3-for-9 vs. Peralta
Norichika Aoki 5-for-11 vs. Kelly
Aramis Ramirez 2-for-10 vs. Kelly
-
bookieshunter
3* vikings -5.5
3* ravens +2.5
2* giants ml
2* cardinals +7.5
1* rams/cowboys over 46.5
1* lions/redskins under 49
1* jaguars/seahawks under 41
3* pirates/reds under 7
-
Norm Hitzges - Picks of the Pole
NFL
Double Plays
·Atlanta +2.5 vs Miami
·Green Bay -3 vs Cincy
Single Plays
·San Francisco -10 vs Indianapolis
·Buffalo +2.5 vs NY Jets
·New England -7 vs Tampa Bay
·Buffalo/NY Jets Under 39
·St. Louis +4 vs Dallas
-
CKO
10 GREEN BAY over *Cincinnati
Late CKO Score Forecast:
GREEN BAY 31- *Cincinnati 20
The Packer defenders are happy to see Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III in their rear-view mirror. Now, the
deeper, more aggressive G.B. front seven is eager to put some pressure on a QB who stays put, namely Andy
Dalton. The Packers are now getting help from rejuvenated DLman Johnny Jolly (out of football three years due
to drug suspension), OLB Nick Perry (former No. 1 pick who was injured early LY), and undersized but hard-
hitting S Chris Banjo (a fan favorite at 5-10, 205). Meanwhile, on offense, Aaron Rodgers is in rhythm with his
receivers, rookie LT David Bakhtiari has been a pleasant surprise, and RB James Starks last week gave the Pack
its first 100-yard rusher since October of 2010. At close to a pick ‘em price, will gladly go with Rodgers (only 15
total ints. his last 2+ seasons) over the still-developing Dawson.
NINE-RATED GAMES:
MINNESOTA (-4) over Cleveland (NFL)—No team other than the Vikes had to open the season with back-to-back divisional road games; Ponder won & covered 6 of his last 7 at home LY, including wins over the 49ers, Bears and Packers!!!
TOTALS:
UNDER (49½) in the Arizona-New Orleans Game—Saints’ defense better than expected; Cardinals’ defense is littered with LSU stars returning home and other former SEC standouts...
UNDER (39-est.) in the Chicago-Pittsburgh Game—Steeler offense is hurting; Pittsburgh “under” 11 of last 12 at home
-
The Gold Sheet
KEY RELEASES
SAN FRANCISCO by 22 over Indianapolis
BUFFALO by 8 over N.Y. Jets
OVER the total in the Detroit-Washington game
-
GoodFella | NFL Side Sunday, 9/22/2013 1:00 PM
399 STL10.5 (-130) BetOnline vs 400 DAL
Analysis:
2* "NFL 7 pt Teaser of the Week"
#399 ST. LOUIS RAMS +10.5 to #412 SF 49ers -2.5
-
Dave Essler
3* Dolphins ML
-
Goodfella
ml 410 MIA (-125) 5dimes vs 409 ATL
Analysis:
"NFL Dominator Play" 3* on MIAMI DOLPHINS $line (pk' at 5dimes sportsbook -125)
Note: I like this for a (3*) up to -3.
We locked in this early on Tuesday to get ourselves what I think is the best price we will get.
Pick Made: Sep 17 2013 10:12AM PST
405 GBP -2.0 (-110) JustBet vs 406 CIN
Analysis:
"NFL Dominator Play" 3* on GREEN BAY PACKERS -2
Pick Made: Sep 17 2013 3:42PM PST
-
Mighty Quinn
Mighty missed with Arkansas (+2) on Saturday and likes the Browns on Sunday.
The deficit is 1523 sirignanos.
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
Reply With Quote