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English Breakfast Premier League Betting Cheat Sheet
The Premier League returns from the latest international break and jumps right back into things with the Merseyside Derby.
We talked to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's fixtures.
Everton v Liverpool (+190, +230, +163)
Why bet Everton: The Toffees are right in the thick of it sitting sixth in the table, just three points back of their noisy neighbors, and look to be the darkhorse to crash the party in the top four.
Key players out/doubtful: Darron Gibson, Arouna Koné
Why bet Liverpool: The Reds crushed a dismal Fulham side in the match prior to the international break and will attempt to do the same to the blue half of Liverpool. Mamadou Sakho, who helped put France through to Brazil, makes his return to club football and the youngster should be brimming with confidence.
Key players out/doubtful: Iago Aspas, José Enrique, Sebastián Coates
2012-13 fixture result: Everton 2, Liverpool 2
Key betting note: The Toffees are unbeaten in their last 17 Premier League matches at Goodison Park.
Where the action is: "Local pride is always at stake for these sides in one of the biggest derbies around, but with both playing well and having a good start to their seasons, it’s a derby that should be one of the games of the weekend. Action is definitely siding with the Reds at +163, with the draw seeing more action than Everton. With three of the top golascorers (Suarez, Sturridge, Lukaku) involved, the over 2.5 goals at -118 is a popular play."
Arsenal v Southampton (-154, +320, +450)
Why bet Arsenal: The table-toppers could receive a boost as the speedy Theo Walcott could return. The Gunners lost to Manchester United prior to the break, so will look to grab a full three points at the Emirates.
Key players out/doubtful: Lukas Podolski, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Mathieu Flamini
Why bet Southampton: Detractors have been waiting for the Saints to fall off, but that just hasn't happened. The side boasts the stingiest defense in the league, having allowed just five goals thus far. They sit third in the table and will look to keep a potent Gunners attack at bay Saturday.
Key players out/doubtful: Guly Do Prado
2012-13 fixture result: Arsenal 6, Southampton 1
Key betting note: There has been under 2.5 goals in the Saints last 10 away matches in the Premier League.
Where the action is: "Arsenal were -175 on the early prices, but a shortening draw price has seen them drift to -154, but that hasn’t deterred many from backing them to take the three points, but the Saints also have their support at +450. Overall, it’s a well balanced FT result book so far. Arsenal players lead the goalscorer betting markets with Olivier Giroud (+450) to score the first goal and +140 to score anytime."
Fulham v Swansea (+250, +225, +130)
Why bet Fulham: There's no real reason to, unless your a Fulham supporter. The Cottagers have been abysmal this season and it's probably just a matter of time before gaffer Martin Jol gets his walking papers. The club has dropped its past three-straight matches in the league, after winning a pair that made it seem like they were getting back on track.
Key players out/doubtful: Hugo Rodallega, Matthew Briggs, Sascha Riether
Why bet Swansea: Swansea's injuries mean that new signings like Wilfried Bony need to step up. It's time for the Ivorian to prove his worth as talisman Michu will be missing from the lineup. He's certainly capable, and the Swans need him to start bagging goals before a side with so much promise drifts toward the bottom of the table.
Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Pablo Hernández, Garry Monk
2012-13 fixture result: Fulham 1, Swansea 2
Key betting note: Fulham and Swansea have played over the 2.5 goal total in the last three meetings at Craven Cottage.
Hull v Crystal Palace (-118, +250, +400)
Why bet Hull: It hasn't been the best of runs for Hull as they were dispatched rather easily by Southampton in their last effort and have lost three of four. But they are playing the worst team in the league, so there's that.
Key players out/doubtful: James Chester, Stephen Quinn, Sone Aluko
Why bet Crystal Palace: Despite an atrocious season which has them buried at the bottom of the table, Palace is coming off a very respectable draw with Everton. This is a great match for them to build some momentum and climb out of the basement.
Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Glenn Murray, Jack Hunt, Jonathan Williams
2012-13 fixture result: N/A
Key betting note: Palace has five losses in five away matches in the league this season.
Newcastle v Norwich (-133, +290, +400)
Why bet Newcastle: Perfect opportunity for the Magpies to move up the table and show us who they really are. They've put together back-to-back wins over Chelsea and Tottenaham, but can they avoid a massive trap game at home here? It seems like the loss to Sunderland has given this side a spark.
Key players out/doubtful: Mathieu Debuchy, Ryan Taylor
Why bet Norwich: The Canaries picked up a much-needed three points prior to the break. The side has not fared well this season and big money signings (by Norwich standards) like Ricky van Wolfswinkel have yet to pay off. They did make a bevy of squad moves in the window, so perhaps they have yet to mesh, but something needs to happen soon.
Key players out/doubtful: Alexander Tettey, Elliott Bennett, Anthony Pilkington
2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 1, Norwich 0
Key betting note: The Magpies have scored at least two goals in their last three EPL home games.
Stoke v Sunderland (+110, +230, +300)
Why bet Stoke: A new manager was supposed to bring a new identity for the Potters, but Stoke has been a draw machine recently. Much like the club was last season. They won two of three to start the season, but can't seem to collect three points of late. A great place to right the ship is at home to 19th-place Sunderland.
Key players out/doubtful: N/A
Why bet Sunderland: A new manager has brought a new identity to the Black Cats. After sacking Di Canio, Sunderland brought in Gus Poyet and the club has won two of three, including an excellent 1-0 win over Man City before the break.
Key players out/doubtful: Andrea Dossena, Lee Cattermole
2012-13 fixture result: Stoke 0, Sunderland 0
Key betting note: Sunderland hasn't scored in their last three EPL away games.
West Ham v Chelsea (+500, +320, -163)
Why bet West Ham: Things aren't good for the Hammers. They lost 3-1 to lowly Norwich before the break and haven't won at Upton Park in four matches. On the plus side, however, is Ravel Morrison. The young playmaker has been a bright spot in an otherwise horrific run for the side.
Key players out/doubtful: Mladen Petric, Razvan Rat, Andy Carroll, Ricardo Vaz Te, Winston Reid, Alou Diarra
Why bet Chelsea: The Blues will look to destroy a wounded West Ham club. Chelsea is superior in basically every position on the pitch and the injury list for West Ham could make for easy pickings for the mega-rich club. With the teams above them involved in some tough fixtures, three points for the Blues is essential.
Key players out/doubtful: Marco van Ginkel, Fernando Torres
2012-13 fixture result: West Ham 3, Chelsea 1
Key betting note: The Blues are unbeaten in 14 of the last 15 meetings with West Ham in all competitions.
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Wunderdog Sports college
Fresno State -31.5
Louisville -23
Arkansas State -23.5
Florida State -57
Stanford -31.5
Georgia -23.5
Michigan State at Northwestern Total OVER 41
Iowa -5.5
N C State +7
Bowling Green -24
Florida Atlantic -21.5
North Texas -7
U T E P +17.5
Louisiana - Monroe +3.5
Vanderbilt +3
Middle Tennessee State -22
Mississippi State -1.5
Oklahoma State +9.5
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River City Sharps
This would be a bigger play (and you are more than welcome to play it that way) but our fault, this is a line we should have jumped on sooner. This game opened at 7.5 and is now sitting at 10.5 or 11! Snooze you lose! We really like what Utah State has done with their team since having to replace QB Chuckie Keeton. They struggled last week a bit with UNLV, but have been scoring over 31 ppg. The story, however, has been their defense, as they are holding opponents to just over 19 ppg. Interesting stat here....in games against common opponents, Colorado St has given up an average of 36.5 ppg while Utah State has only allowed 16.5 ppg. The Aggies defense and home cooking spells a double digit win for Utah State. The Sharps say....
2 UNITS - UTAH STATE (-10.5)
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Chicago Syndicate
(CFB)
NC State
Over Virginia
LSU
Oklahoma State
SMU
Missouri
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LA Syndicate
(CFB)
Over Houston
Over UCLA
Utah State
Under USC
Oregon & Over
Oregon State
Over Fresno State
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Mark Lawrence
3* WF
3* NW
3* OU
3* Arizona
3* Ole Miss
10* Oklahoma State (GOY)
Last edited by Can'tPickAWinner; 11-23-2013 at 12:19 AM.
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WBO International Welterweight fight with Pacquiao vs. Rios
by Vegas Runner
The vacant WBO International Welterweight strap will be up for grabs inside The Venetian Macau this Saturday night when former top pound-for-pound king Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao (54-5-2, 38 KO’s) makes his return to the ring against Brandon “Bam-Bam” Rios (31-1-1, 23 KO’s).
Rest assured this bout is for much more than capturing another alphabet title trinket for either man.
For Pacquiao, this fight represents his return to the sport that made him an international sports icon, and a test to prove whether or not he should hang up his gloves at only 34 after back to back losses, including one by devastating knockout at the hands of Juan Manuel Marquez 11 months ago.
For Rios, it’s an opportunity to take his place among the sport’s elite and continue his climb up in weight in an attempt to secure the big purses that come with being that level of prize fighter. It’s also a chance to go on record as the man who put an end to the career of one of this boxing generation’s biggest names.
According to oddsmakers who sent the betting line out with Pacquiao listed as a 410 betting favorite, Rios ironically is about to suffer his second straight loss. More importantly, since Bookmakers hung a price up, bettors have driven the odds now as high as Manny -450, with the take back on Brandon +360.
The first ever and former eight division world champion has an extremely loyal fan base who are willing to bet their fighter regardless of asking price. Couple that with the known fact many of his biggest fans are also “invited casino guests” from Asia, or whales as we call them in Vegas, and it’s almost a given Bookmakers will be receiving some heavy action on Pacquiao up until the sound of the bell for Round 1.
Simple math tells us a bettor would need to conclude Pacquiao’s chances of having his hand raised would have to exceed 82% just to break-even long term when laying $450 to win $100. While on the flip side of that very same coin, Rios would have to win at a 22% clip to profit $350 when betting $100 to be profitable.
Between now and fight night the price on Pacquiao should continue to climb, meaning his probability will have to be greater, while Rios’ chances could decrease some.
Bottom line, when using sports betting as an investment vehicle you simply need to get your money down when you are getting the best of it, trusting that in the short term randomness could result in losses, but in the long term having the edge makes you a mathematical certainty to be ahead.
Statistically, Pacquiao and Rios both connect on 34% of their punches, while defensively Pac-Man has been able to avoid 5% more of opponents’ shots. We also know Manny has acquired the majority of his stats against a who’s who of boxing’s best, while Rios is still trying to build a resume that includes top level opposition.
Also, just two years ago Rios was a lightweight and his last two fights were at junior welterweight. Now he moves up to 147 lbs. and the question will be whether he’ll be able to carry his punching power up the ladder, and more importantly, be able to take a punch like he’s done against lighter men.
One of Rios’ greatest assets has been his granite chin, which enables him to keep coming forward and be willing to take two punches for the chance to land one of his own.
We also know Manny has much more experience, most notably on such a grand stage.
Though many will argue he won the Bradley fight and was winning against Marquez before being caught flush, the fact remains both were able to employ their game plans. Bradley wanted to outwork Pacquiao, while JMM had no intention of allowing the result to be left in the hands of the judges.
Against Rios, Pacquiao will surely be tested and he’ll have to utilize his boxing skills rather than allow for a brawl.
For Rios, he’ll need to handle Pacquiao’s pressure early on and get his attention by landing some big shots. When a fighter suffers a knock-out as vicious as Manny did in his last bout, they just don’t take a punch as well anymore, that’s fact.
Rios will have to make Pacquiao question whether he’ll be able to handle getting caught, which will make him more cautious. This will allow Rios time to not only bank some rounds with the judges, but also build his confidence to where he believes he belongs in the same ring with the future Hall of Fame fighter.
Many believe Rios was chosen because he’s an action fighter who will not only bring the best out in Pacquiao, but he’ll also be a willing participant in his comeback plans by affording Manny the opportunity to look spectacular winning by knockout.
In closing, although it all sets up perfectly for Pacquiao to win and return to glory and continue on as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters on the planet, I just don’t believe the asking price to back him can be justified against Rios.
I made my True Line only -200, which reflects a 67% chance of victory, and even then I think I was being a bit too generous to the favorite. So come Saturday night my money will be on “Bam-Bam.”
PICK: Rios +365
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GoSooners CFB Picks Week 13 YTD: 37-30 (+4.00 Units)
1 Unit Okie State +10 (-110)
So far I’m 2-2 on Baylor games. So I guess this one is the rubber match for me. The fair value on this line is around 6.5 to 7 points. But I’ll be honest with you, I wouldn’t have taken OSU under double digits in this game. Mainly because Vegas can’t seem to set these lines high enough for this Baylor team, who keeps surpassing expectations. But still, the first thing I thought when I saw BM come out with a Baylor -13 was “those crazy linesmakers.” It’s scary going against this team. But they still haven’t played anybody who is a true threat on both sides of the ball. I’ll admit they surprised me last week in being in a tough sandwich spot against Texas Tech and still covering the spread. The Bears came out with a mild OU hangover. But after being down 14-0 they got back down to business and finished off TT like good teams do. But you still have to keep TT in perspective. They’ve lost to OSU and KSU the last two weeks by 19 and 23 on their home field. And both of those scores could have been even worse.
Baylor has been impressive, but they’ve played literally nobody to this point except KSU, who played them within 10 points. And if KSU QB Sam’s hadn’t made a couple late critical errors in that game, we might have seen a different outcome. Baylor’s defense is ranked a little higher than OSU, but keep in mind that the Pokes have played the tougher schedule with Baylor only having played two true road games all season. They are still the best defense Baylor has faced. OSU ranked #27 against the run and #10 in pass eff D. Which to me is more important than yards allowed. We are also talking about Baylor going into a snakepit at night and giving DD to a team who has topped 50 points four times this year. And just laid 38 on Texas in Austin. OSU can score on anybody from anywhere on the field. That’s why this total is set at 78.
OSU also ranked #10 in turnover margin. So I don’t see Baylor getting many free gifts. The pressure in mounting the further Baylor gets into their backloaded schedule. Instead of this being a typical lazy afternoon game, it’s a late in the season ESPN Gameday game played at night in Stillwater against a very solid team that was picked in preseason to win the Big 12 with the Pokes also have everything to play for. Just keep in mind that back in September, if OSU hadn’t been stopped on downs when having 1st and goal from the WV 5 yard line to go up 14-0 we would probably be talking about a 10-0 3rd ranked OSU team playing a 4th ranked or thereabouts Baylor team. And I’m betting we also wouldn’t be seeing a 10 point line. It’s all about public perception. The pressure and the injuries are mounting up on Baylor. Tevon Reese, Lache Seastrunck, and now OL Drango (22 starts) out. He protected Petty’s blind side. And LB Hager out. Losing him was the equivalent of OU losing Corey Nelson. He was second team Big 12 last year, and most likely 1st team this year. Everything is telling me that Baylor is slowly starting to come back to the field. And I think that’s what we are going to see Saturday night. Baylor wins, but it will be by far their biggest test of the season. Now, I wonder what mascot Lee Corso is going to put on? If he puts on that Bear suit, Baylor could be in trouble Saturday night. They’ll definitely be the hunted team with a big target on their backs.
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Pezgordo 2013 College Football Picks – YTD: 32-26 (+4.18 units)
164 UCLA +2.5 (1.25 units) / ML +125 (.25 units)
First looked at this line yesterday on Bookmaker and thought I saw UCLA -3, which I thought was about right. I had to do a double take before it finally hit me, it was UCLA +3 …. WHAT?
Line Value: One thing I always admired (and learned) from Trentmoney was his ability to quickly compare recent lines to find line value. In this case here is what I am seeing based upon 4 common opponents:
@ Stanford …. ASU +6, UCLA +4
@ Utah ….. ASU -7, UCLA -4.5
Home Colorado ….. ASU -28.5, UCLA -28.5
Home Washington ….. ASU -3.5, UCLA -2.5
Now how is this game, based on these LV lines, not a pick ‘em, or at best ASU -1 on a neutral field? The spreads are almost identical.
So depending on how much value you give to HFA, shouldn’t the home team be at least a 2.5 to 3 point favorite in this game?
Talent: You all have often heard me say “recruiting at UCLA & USC levels” when discussing the talent level for various PAC 12 schools. When it comes to “raw” talent and the ability to recruit this talent, none of the other teams in the conference can match these two schools.
Now obviously talent, or perceived talent (since we are relying upon recruiting rankings), is just one piece of the handicapping puzzle. Oregon and Stanford are perfect examples that you cannot simply base your decisions on “raw” talent.
However as USC proved this past Saturday, despite having a depleted roster (in terms of sheer numbers), their front line talent is still as good as any team in the country. So it is always nice to have the talent edge on your side, especially when the team with all the talent is a home underdog.
The point I am trying to make is that ASU just doesn’t recruit at UCLA & USC levels (which sucks for us homers. HA!).
Based on the last 4 recruiting cycles, USC is the only school in the PAC 12 that has a higher 4 year recruiting composite than UCLA. The Bruins 2012 class ranked 12th in the country and their 4 year composite ranking is 18th in the country (USC is 14th & 3rd).
ASU classes were ranked 40th in 2012 and their 4 year composite ranking is also ranked 40th.
Now in ASU’s defense, they are an experienced team this year and HC Graham has got them playing at a high level. So those intangibles obviously can help to overcome, or least make up for slightly inferior talent.
Road Woes: The Sun Devils are an experienced group this season and HC Graham has definitely made them a mentally tougher team in 2013 and this has showed in their away efforts. Last year they would have lost that game in Utah two weeks ago.
However, road wins over Utah and Washington State still doesn’t take away from the fact that ASU plays significantly better in Tempe than they do on the road, and their next quality road win will be their first in several years.
I will add some home/road stats a little later in the week.
196 New Mexico – Fresno State OVER 66 (0.50 units)
I had a massive write-up ready to go for this game, supported by some great stats. I was ready to go with another 1.5 unit play this week. Only thing left to do was read up on each team to make sure there were no major injuries ….. OOH!
When the Lobos visit Bulldog Stadium on Saturday they will be without starting quarterback Cole Gautsche as well as starting running back Kasey Carrier (6 carries 13 yards last week), who have accounted for almost 60% of their offensive production this season. Both have been ruled out by coach Bob Davie because they have exhibited concussion symptoms after taking hits in a loss to Colorado State.New Mexico is expected to start at quarterback junior Clayton Mitchem, who is not as big or physical as the 6-foot-4, 227-pound Gautsche, but more athletic, a better passer and gives the Bulldogs more things to worry about from now until kickoff and contend with once the game starts.
So much for the 1.5 unit wager. However one of the main reasons I was going to go large on this one was because I really think Fresno Sate has a chance to score this number by themselves (just like CSU did last week), and at the very least put up half a hundred in this one. New Mexico is allowing 39.90 ppg to teams that avg 28.15 ppg (+11.75 ppg). The Lobos have allowed 56, 38, 45, 35, 37 & 66 in MWC play.
Now they take on the # 1 offense in the MWC. Fresno State is avg 44.75 ppg against teams that allow 35.56 ppg (+9.19) and have scored 41, 42, 38, 35, 41 & 48 in MWC play …. all against D’s that allow less ppg than New Mexico.
New Mexico’s offense has really been tearing it up in MWC play scoring 41, 32, 10 (vs the MWC’s # 1 D Utah State), 30, 45 & 42.
I am not as concerned about losing Carrier because the Lobos have a pretty solid stable of running backs. But losing Gautsche is a big question mark.
Mitchem played the entire second half last week and led the Lobos to 21 points. He completed 5 of 8 passes for 119 yards in the Lobos’ loss to Colorado State, playing in relief of Gautsche. This season, he has hit 54.4% of his throws (31 for 57) for 461 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. He also has rushed 40 times for only 44 yards, with a long of 19 yards.
Fresno State needs style points to stay in contention for a BCS bid so I believe they will score as many as possible in this game. New Lobo QB Mitchem is making his first career start, but he has some experience and the Lobo offense is tough to stop no matter who is running it. His inexperience could also set up Fresno with some short fields via turnovers.
Fresno State 55, New Mexico 20
182 BYU – Notre Dame UNDER 54 (1 unit)
Write-up to follow …. have some good line comparison stats to suggest this number is a little high
6 – Team ML parlay -116 (0.50 units)
Rice, Georgia, Miami, Central Michigan, Oregon & USC
I like Rice to win toinght. CMU is the short fav and assuming Rice does in fact win tonight, I will add another 0.50 unit tomorrow with another team to make it a full unit.
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SabertStxVii 2013 CFB Picks – Week 13
3* Units, Duke -5.5 vs Wake
As fishy as this line is, there is just too much value on Duke here in this one to pass up. I know it is an absolutely awful spot, but the numbers favor Duke, and they still need to walk away from this game with a win to continue their division hopes to get to the ACC Championship game. It is in their hands, and if they win out they are in. This is not a game they want to drop here.
The reason I really like this number is because of how poor Wake is on offense, specially without Campanero. I have their offense being ranked 114th, and that includes quite a few games when he played. He is the spark of this offense, and is out for the season. Wake is one of the worst rushing teams in the nation, and you won’t have to do too much to stop them. They also only reach the red zone on average 2.4x a game, ranking them 117th in the nation.
On the other hand, Wake has a nice defense. The defense can’t support the entire offense though. This one will eventually get ugly, and Duke will get their scores.
This game is historically close, but Wake is historically bad.
Final Score
Duke 31, Wake 13
1.5* Units, Wyoming -6.5 vs Hawaii
Such an awful situation here for Hawaii. There aren’t too many teams that Wyoming would be 7 point favorites over, but with the travel that Hawaii has to go through, I think this warrants a play from me. Hawaii has played a much more difficult schedule, but they haven’t won a game, and I don’t forsee them winning one here either.
To start, here is the situation for the Hawaii football team. They haven’t won a game yet this year, they flew home last week and got home late Sunday. They flew to LA today and are flying to Wyoming tomorrow for this game. Mind you, the game in Wyoming will be below freezing.
Wyoming actually has somewhat of an offense. They have some OL that has returned and turned things around for them quite a bit. They perform well in the RedZone, very well scoring TDs in the RedZone ranking 3rd, and they pick up a lot of 1st downs and 3rd downs. Hawaii isn’t t hat great on defense either. They have a decent front 7, but they really struggle to get stops.
The reason I like Wyoming here is because Hawaii will stop themselves on offense. They aren’t good at all. They have absolutely no trace of a run game, and Wyoming actually does a decent job against allowing big pass plays. Hawaii cannot stay on the field with their offense. They rank 114th in 3rd downs, and they are god awful in the RedZone. Even the Wyoming D will be bale ot get some stops here.
Finally, Wyoming can still get to 2 wins and be bowl eligible. Last home game, some added motivation, and a better offense that can move the ball vs a bad one dimensional offense. We’ll lay some points.
Final Score
Wyoming 38, Hawaii 20
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Docs
3 Unit Play. #80/#152 Tennessee Volunteers -2.5 over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) This battle of Tennessee is import for both teams as they are vying for postseason play. Vanderbilt already has enough wins to go bowling, but Tennessee needs to win out in order to get to six victories. Tennessee has won 34 of the 37 meetings and is 17-1 when the games are played in Knoxville. Tennessee is coming off a much-needed bye week after getting blown out by the big boys (Auburn, Missouri, & Alabama) the three previous weeks. This is a get-healthy game for Tennessee, and it is much needed in order to get the extra month of practice during December.
3 Unit Play. #86/#154 Take Central Michigan Chippewas -11 over UMASS Minutemen (Saturday 1 pm ESPN 3) Central Michigan is a traditional top-tier program in the MAC, but that is not the case this season. They currently sit at 4-6 on the year and need to win out to become bowl eligible. This is something that they will likely achieve since they are playing teams the next two weeks that have just three combined wins. UMASS is never a bad play as a huge underdog because they have decent defense, but getting around 10 points will not be enough for them to earn the cover. UMASS has a terrible offense as they score just 20 points per game.
6 Unit Play. #40/#158 Take Wyoming Cowboys -6 over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 2 pm themw.com) Top College Football Play of the Weekend. To make no bones about it, both of these teams suck; however, Wyoming troubles have been self-inflicted with numerous turnovers each and every game. The Cowboys played alright against Boise State last week on defense, however, the offense turned it over way too much and that eventually caught-up with them. Hawaii played well last week at home in a game they desperately wanted but fell apart in overtime and I just do not think they will have much left in the tank. San Diego State played terrible last week on offense and that is the strong point of Wyoming. The Cowboys still have a shot at a bowl game and they need one badly or their coach may be shown the door. The line is creeping down and that just make me like Wyoming that much more. If Wyoming does not turnover the football I feel they will be able to light up the scoreboard in this game and Hawaii simply will not be able to keep up. The Warriors have only been competitive in one road game this season and were beaten by double digits against bad teams like Navy & Nevada. Hawaii is 3-10 in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Wyoming is 7-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. We must protect this football!
3 Unit Play. #104/#164 Take UCLA Bruins -2.5 over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm FOX) One may think this is a strange line since UCLA is higher-ranked and at home but is an underdog to Arizona State this week in Pasadena. I went to Arizona State and have a great feel for the Sun Devils and just do not feel that they are that strong this season. UCLA has great balance and an athletic quarterback in Brett Hundley. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. We used UCLA last week against Washington, and the Bruins jumped out to a big lead, and we expect a similar result on Saturday. Both teams combined for four losses, but ASU has the only bad loss of the four, losing to Notre Dame at a neutral site. Arizona State will move the football on offense but not on a consistent basis. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. UCLA has covered four of their last five home games. Getting points is just a bonus we cannot afford to pass up.
3 Unit Play. #46/#202 Take Kansas State Wildcats -4.5 over Oklahoma Sooners (Saturday 12 pm Fox Sports 1) The Sooners have been having trouble throwing the football all season long, and Kansas State just continues to roll after a tough start to the season. Oklahoma now has issues on offense with Blake Bell, Damien Williams, and Lacolton Bester all out for this game. Kansas State can stop the run, and they have won four straight games. Only one of those four victories was a close game; last week against TCU. K-State is 21-6 ATS (one push) in their last 28 Big 12 games. Oklahoma is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Big 12 games. Both trends hold true on Saturday.
2 Unit Play. #106/#208 Take Under 58 in Boise State @ San Diego State (Saturday 10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) We used and collected on both of these teams games last week, and we will ride the under again this week with the Broncos. Boise State faces a much better defense than they faced last week against Wyoming. Despite playing that terrible Cowboy defense, Boise State put up just 45 points, and a few of those touchdowns were aided by short fields by turnovers. San Diego State looked terrible on offense last week in Hawaii until the overtime period, and I just do not see things getting any better tonight against a better Boise State defense.
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Goodfella
Sat. Ariz St (ML)
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CKO
10 EAST CAROLINA over *NC State
Late CKO score forecast:
EAST CAROLINA 45 - *NC State 27
10 VANDERBILT over *Tennessee
Late Score Forecast:
VANDERBILT 27 - *Tennessee 20
10 MICHIGAN over *Iowa
Late Score Forecast:
MICHIGAN 24 - *Iowa 19
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PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET
Texas A&M over LSU by 10
When the Tigers take the fi eld in Baton Rouge today, not only will
they be trying to erase the memories of a brutal second half against
Alabama when a third-quarter deadlock quickly turned in a “Roll
Tide” of epic proportions, but they’ll also be attempting to extend
their winning skein to three over Texas A&M. The Bama loss knocked
LSU completely out of the BCS picture, but Les Miles has had an offweek
to adjust and it’s nothing that a win over their new SEC rivals
can’t cure. Aggie HC Kevin Sumlin was not the man in charge when
the Tigers tattooed Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl following the
2010 season, but he certainly will be looking for payback from the
24-19 defeat last season that snapped a 5-game winning streak (LSU
forced 5 Aggie turnovers and responded to an early A&M 12-point
lead with 24 unanswered points). Sumlin’s team has been a perfect
10-0 away from Kyle Field since he took over from Mike Sherman,
but surprisingly, this is only their third road trip of the season. A quick
look at the stats reveals that in games against the three common
opponents they’ve faced this season (Alabama, Mississippi State and
Ole Miss), the Aggies won the stats by +166 yards while the Tigers
lost the stats by -127 yards, giving Johnny Football a 98 YPG net
differential advantage. A&M is also coming off a bye week, and Miles
is just 2-7 ATS as a home favorite against a rested opponent. The
Clincher: Aggie coach Kevin Sumlin is 13-3 SUATS in games
when his teams are seeking revenge, including 7-0 SUATS
versus foes off a SUATS loss.
4★ BEST BET
PENN ST over Nebraska by 14
Not a bad season for either of these once-powerful programs: both
teams reside in 3rd place in their respective divisions within the Big
Ten and both have records that would qualify for the post-season.
Of course, the Nittany Lions are going nowhere except the shopping malls this holiday season due to the Sandusky punishments, and that
is one of the reasons we like them so much this weekend – a victory
here guarantees a winning season and in their current situation,
players have to be satisfi ed with just a little less than normal.
Meanwhile, the Huskers have plenty ahead of them and while
they couldn’t overcome 5 turnovers to a stout Spartan defense last
week, they were the fi rst team to outyard MSU this season, posting
a season-high 392 yards against the nation’s top-ranked stop unit.
Also, leading Big 10 rusher Ameer Abdullah rushed for 100 yards for
the 7th straight game and became the fi rst RB to reach the century mark against MSU this season. But with the Final Home Game of the
year important for many alternative reasons in Happy Valley, and
with a convincing Game Eleven record of 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS – not
to mention a perfect fi t inside our INCREDIBLE STAT box on page 3 –
we’ll look for a strong effort from Bill O’Brien’s team in what could be
Bo’s fi nal foray on the Big 10 road. The Clincher: The Lions are 5-0
SUATS in Last Home Games with revenge this century.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
WAKE FOREST over Duke by 3
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Arizona
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Penn State is 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home with revenge off a conference win when facing a
conference foe with at least one loss on the season.
-
POWERSWEEP
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Wisconsin over MINNESOTA - Battle of Paul Bunyan’s Axe. UW has won 9 in a row SU in this
series by 17 ppg and are 6-3 ATS. They are also 4-1 ATS (+282 ypg L/7) in Minny as Wisc fans
travel well here and what better place to do some early Christmas shopping than at the Mall of
America? LY we had a 3H Key Selection on these pages and a 4H LPS on UW -16’ and won easily
38-13 with Minn taking the RS off Philip Nelson giving him his first start at QB. UW had 24-12 FD
and 443-245 yd edges. Situational edge to Minny here as they are off a bye playing their FHG (5-
3 ATS incl 2 outright upsets in new stad as DD dogs). The Gophers are no doubt one of the
surprise darlings of the country TY at 8-2 and winners of 4 str both SU/ATS. However, now they
face a bigger, stronger and faster version of themselves as the Badgers come in winners of 5 in a
row both SU/ATS. LW we easily cashed a 4H Key Selection on these pages as they crushed
Indiana (like they do each and every year) 51-3 (-24) while piling up 554 rush yds (11.1!). They
are now avg 308 ypg (7.0) on the year! On the D side, they are all’g just 99 ypg (3.1) while
Minny’s rush D has all’d 202 (5.9) the L/3 wks. The Badgers still have BCS hopes and we’re not
shying away from a tm that is 9-1 ATS TY w/their only non-cover by a 1/2 pt. They have also
owned the series and have cashed multiple key selections. Sound familiar?
FORECAST: Wisconsin by 24 over MINNESOTA
3* TENNESSEE over vanderbilt - UT’s victory over Vandy in ‘11 proved costly in ‘12. In the
lockerroom after the game Derek Dooley said basically that the one thing they do every year is
kick Vanderbilt’s butt. They were 28-1 SU in this series. LY they were a 3 pt dog at VU and
Franklin reminded his team often of those comments. VU would roll up their biggest MOV over UT
since 1954 in a 41-18 rout and it was the most pts VU had put up on UT since 1923. Vandy just
clinched bowl elig for the 3rd str ssn (1st time in schlhist) and it was a misleading gm as they got
a frontdoor cover td w/:47 left and benefitted from a +4 TO margin. They did start Carta-Samuels
at QB (out s/mid-Oct) and he went 19-24-184-0-0. UT, meanwhile is off a bye needing 2 wins to
clinch elig. They are at home where they are a much better tm as they are 4-2 (+17 ypg) incl an
upset win over SC while they are 0-4 away from home (-215 ypg). They come in off 3 str blowout
losses but most tms would lose in the same fashion to the likes of Bama/Mizzou/Auburn. This is a
legitimate revenge game for a team that won 28 of 29 and was embarrassed LY. Look for new HC
Jones to make winning back the state a priority here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE by 10 over vanderbilt
3* HOUSTON over Cincinnati - These 2 were also CUSA members until ‘04 but their last game
was in ‘02. The visitor is only 1-5 SU. Cincy is on B2B road (8-1 ATS in 2nd str AG) and this is
their 3rd road in 4 weeks and they are 0-1 SU/ATS in trips West of the Mississippi River the L4Y.
You would think that after covering 8 of their 1st 9 gms the Cougars would finally get some
respect but that again wasn’t the case LW as we easily cashed our 7th, that’s right 7th 3H Key
Selection this year on UH as they nearly pulled a huge outright upset at L’ville losing 20-13 (+17).
Cincy was also impressive LW in a 52-17 (+1) win over Rutgers as they had a 619-357 yd edge.
Coming into the gm, however, their 9 prev opponents had a combined 17 wins and the best mark
belonged to FCS NW St at 5-5. They have still only played our #121 sked and now travel west
taking on a UH tm that has already played and covered against the likes of BYU, UCF and UL. We
would take all 3 of those squads over this overrated Cincy tm and look for the Cougs to deliver us
another winner here.
FORECAST: HOUSTON by 14 over Cincinnati
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* virginia (+) over MIAMI, FL - Al Golden was the Cavs DC from ‘01-’05. There have actually
been 6 outright upsets in this series the L9Y (dog is 7-1-1 ATS). UVA has won 3 in a row SU after
pulling upsets as 16 and 14 point dogs in ‘10 and ‘11 and LY UVA was -1 and won 41-40. UVA had
a 482-420 yd edge and they needed 2 late td’s to overcome a 10 pt deficit. UVA went 87/17pl
converting on 4&7 2x and got a 10 yd td pass with :06 left for the win. LTH UVA led 17-0 but UM
got within 7 w/9:22 left. UVA tkl’d UM at their 9 (23 yd pass) on gm’s final play to hold on to the
victory. Both tms come in reeling as UVA has lost 7 str gms and had the bye to lick their wounds
after B2B blowout losses. Meanwhile the Canes after climbing as high as #7 in the polls, have now
lost 3 str gms after LW’s 48-30 loss (-3’) to Duke. In those L/3 gms the D, which was thought to
be much improved TY, has reverted back to their 2012 form all’g an avg of 44 ppg and 536 ypg
and now they are laying 3 td’s leaving the backdoor wide open. UVA is 3-1-1 ATS off a bye in the
reg ssn under London while Canes are 2-8 ATS as a DD ACC fav.
FORECAST: Virginia (+) MIAMI, FL by 10
2* NC STATE by 1 over East Carolina - In the last meeting in ‘10, EC (+7’) led 21-0 but needed
a FG with 1:04 left to force OT where they won it. EC finishes up on B2B road and has the CUSA
East title show- down vs Marshall on deck. NCSt is in an ACC sandwich but desperately needs a
win to get some positive momentum for the future under Doeren. EC comes in winners of 4 str
gms after a 63-14 (-28) pasting of UAB where they piled up 36-17 FD and 625-354 yd edges. On
the other side, NCSt has lost 6 str gms and fell to 0-7 in the ACC for the 1st time ever after LW’s
38-21 loss (+7’) to BC. QB Thomas st’d in place of Mitchell (CS) and was 22-33-207-1-0 but they
were dominated at the LOS getting outrushed 420-35. While it’s tough to back a tm that is 0-5-1
ATS in their L/6 gms, NCSt is 11-4-1 ATS as a HD and EC’s blowout win over NC earlier TY here
gives us some value. We’ll gladly back NCSt as a home dog against a non-BCS foe that has a more important gm on deck.
FORECAST: NC STATE by 1 over East Carolina
-
POWERPLAYS
4.5* HAWAII 33 WYOMING 32
4.5* nebraska 31 penn st 24
4.5* KANSAS 26 IOWA ST 24
4* NORTH TexAS 29 UTSA 17
4* HOUSTON 33 CINCINNATI 26
4* FLORIDA ST 76 IDAHO 2
4* LA TeCH (if +3 or more) 27 TULSA 27
4* MISSOURI 33 MISSISSIPPI 24
3* WISCONSIN 30 MINNESOTA 12
3* USC 43 COLORADO 14
2* OREGON 45 ARIZONA 24
2* BOWLING GREEN 47 EASTERN MICH 10
2* OKLAHOMA ST 37 (+) BAYLOR 43
-
POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BOWLING GREEN over Eastern Mich RATING: 1
BAYLOR over Oklahoma State RATING: 1
RICE over Uab RATING: 2
MISSOURI over Mississippi RATING: 3
WISCONSIN over Minnesota RATING: 4
OREGON over Arizona RATING: 4
MICHIGAN STATE over Northwestern RATING: 5
IOWA over Michigan RATING: 5
-
THE GREEN SHEET
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 UCLA (+2½) over Arizona State
RATING 4 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8½) over UMass
RATING 3 MEMPHIS (+24½) over Louisville
RATING 2 IOWA STATE (-6) over Kansas
RATING 2 MICHIGAN STATE (-7½) over Northwestern
RATING 1 TEMPLE (-8½) over Connecticut
RATING 1 VIRGINIA (+19½) over Miami, FL
-
Dave Cokin:
119 Illinois -6.5
141 Boston College pk
151 Vanderbilt +2.5
157 Hawaii +6
163 Arizona State -2.5
195/96 New Mexico/Fresno State Over 66
-
Line Moves - Week 13
By Chris David
Week 12 Recap
Favorites: 5-0 (5-0 SU)
Underdogs: 0-2 (0-2 SU)
Totals: 3-2
For the first time all season, gamblers following the line moves saw the favorites go 5-0 both straight up and against the spread last week. For the most part, the victories were never in doubt as Wisconsin, Florida Atlantic, East Carolina, Baylor and Boise State rolled. The underdogs went 0-2 and we feel bad for the professionals who took Northwestern. The Wildcats were in position to snap their five-game losing streak to Michigan but a late field goal forced overtime and head coach Pat Fitzgerald's team came up short once again. Since Northwestern collapsed against Ohio State in early October, it has dropped six straight games and needs to win out to become bowl eligible. The totals went 1-4 last week, a couple of the moves proved to be correct, in particular the Connecticut-SMU and West Virginia-Kansas matchups.
Week 13 Line Moves
CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 13 last Sunday. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.
Favorites
Ohio State vs. Indiana
Open: Buckeyes -31½
Friday: Buckeyes -34½
Central Michigan vs. Massachusetts
Open: Chippewas -8½
Friday: Chippewas -12
Stanford vs. California
Open: Cardinal -28½
Friday: Cardinal -31½
Boise State at San Diego State
Open: Broncos -7½
Friday: Broncos -4½
Week 13 Total Moves
CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Tuesday and there was only one game that saw any significant movement this week.
Texas A&M at LSU
Open: 70
Friday: 73
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