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Thread: 11-23-13

  1. #61
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    Betting the biggest spreads in college football history
    By JASON LOGAN

    Week 13 of the college football schedule has more chalk than a daycare sidewalk, with plenty of power programs tuning up for their Week 14 rivalry games and season finales against softer competition this Saturday.

    A quick glance over the NCAAF board leaves bettors wrapping their minds around spreads in the 50-point range –Alabama A&M at Georgia Tech (-51.5), Chattanooga at Alabama (-49), Idaho at Florida State (-57) – and a whole heap-load of games with spreads of 30 or more points.

    Florida State backers are no strangers to these massive mountains of points. The Seminoles opened as 70.5-point favorites versus Savannah State last September and were bet down to a closing line of -67. The game was actually called after three quarters due to lightning with FSU leading 55-0, deeming it “no action” by most books who actually offered the beefy spread.

    As of Thursday afternoon, the 57 points Florida State is giving Idaho is tied as the fifth-biggest college football spread since 1987 (as far back as our ATS database tracks). However, it’s not even the biggest spread NCAAF bettors have had to deal with this season.

    Books tabbed Oregon as a 59-point home favorite versus Nicholls State in Week 1, with the Ducks winning and covering in a 66-3 victory at Autzen Stadium on August 31. And, Miami was a 60-point favorite hosting Savannah State in Week 4 – the second-highest NCAAF spread since 1987 – and won SU and ATS 77-7.

    Of the 20 biggest NCAAF favorites over the last 26 years – ranging from 67 to 52 points – eight have managed to cover, with Savannah State-FSU ruled as “no action”. This season alone, bettors have dealt with spreads of 60, 59, 54.5, and 52.5 points, with the favorite going 2-2 ATS in those games.

    Here’s a look at the 10 most-lofty NCAAF spreads since 1987 and their outcomes:

    67 - Savannah State 0, Florida State 55 (called after three quarters) – Sept. 8, 2012
    60 - Savannah State 7, Miami 77 - Sept. 21, 2013
    59 – SMU 21, Houston 95 – Oct. 21, 1989
    59 – Nicholls State 3, Oregon 66 – Aug. 31, 2012
    57 – Oklahoma 59, Kansas State 10 – Oct. 17, 1987
    56.5 – Missouri State 7, Oregon 56 – Sept. 17, 2011
    55.5 - Charleston Southern 10, Florida State 62 – Sept. 10, 2011
    55 – UL Monroe 6, Florida 55 – Sept. 8, 2001
    55 – Florida A&M 13, Oklahoma 69 – Sept. 8, 2012
    55 - Western Carolina 0, Alabama 49 – Nov. 17, 2012

    *Eight of the 20 games with spreads between 67 and 52 points had accompanying totals, which finished 4-4 Over/Under.

    **Oklahoma was the road favorite in its games against Kansas State (-57) and Kansas (-54.5) in September 1987, going 1-1 ATS in those contests.

  2. #62
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    Pacquiao playing into Brandon Rios' emotional style
    By MMAODDSBREAKER

    The eyes of the boxing world are focused on Macao, China and the highly-anticipated match between Manny Pacquiao and Brandon Rios this Saturday.

    Though this doesn’t feel like a Pacquiao fight when he was at his peak, it’s still a huge bout and a lot hangs in the balance for Pacquiao and his career. He sits as a (-470) favorite, with the comeback on Rios at (+375).

    The common thinking is that Pacquiao’s time of dominance is over after suffering back-to-back losses. Pacquiao and his team accepted Rios as an opponent because of his style, which is tailor-made for Pacquiao. So despite his dropoff, he has booked this as a bounce-back fight.

    The rhetoric from the Pacquiao camp is typical, saying that he’s focused and in the best shape he’s been in for a long time. Trainer Freddie Roach is predicting a knockout and the pre-fight heat between the two camps has been ratcheted up now that fight week is here.

    Roach was involved in an incident that could have escalated into a brawl with the Rios camp and there’s been a long history of vulgarities exchanged between the two camps. The funny thing is this stuff plays into Rios’ hands.

    Rios (31-1-1) has been fighting at a high level for a long time. His brawling style comes from his street-fighter mind set and he prefers a firefight. He thrives when a fight gets emotional. This is the biggest bout if his life and his biggest payday, so bettors can count on getting Rios’ A-plus game.

    Pacquiao will remain unemotional and will try to be precise and land his big punch to take out Rios. If Rios is somehow able to stay safe or take Pac-Man’s power, then he has a legitimate shot. A loss to Pacquiao could send the Filipino star on the road to retirement but the bookmakers don’t think Rios can do it.

  3. #63
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    Norm Hitzges Picks of the Pole

    November 22-25, 2013 Last week: 17-6
    Last two weeks: 37-15
    Season: 162-134

    College

    DOUBLE PLAYS: Ohio St. -35 Indiana
    Wisconsin -16 1/2 Minnesota

    SINGLE PLAYS:

    Middle Tennessee -23 So. Mississippi
    BYU PICK Notre Dame
    Colorado St. +10 Utah St.
    Bowling Green -24 E. Michigan
    Hawaii +6 Wyoming
    Wake Forest +5 1/2 Duke
    Kansas +5 Iowa St.
    Houston -3 Cincinnati
    Texas A&M +4 1/3 LSU
    North Texas -7 1/2 UTSA
    SMU -4 So. Florida

  4. #64
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    Phil Steele - Inside the Pressbox Best Bets:

    Iowa
    Houston
    SMU
    Kansas (Upset POW)

    HIGH SCORING POW
    LSU 45 TEXAS A&M 38

    HIGH SCORING POW
    FRESNO ST 54 NEW MEXICO 24

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    NCAAF Top 4: Teams in need of style points

    College football's silly season is upon us, when teams jockeying for better position in the BCS standings take extreme measures to make that happen.

    With strength of schedule such a vital part of the BCS calculations - and the one thing teams can't control - those in the mix for the national title game or some other marquee BCS matchup will often look to score as many points as possible in order to bolster their resumes. The result: Blowouts - and "over" plays - in abundance.

    Here are four teams expected to bombard the scoreboard over the final two weeks of the season:

    Ohio State Buckeyes (BCS rank: 3)

    According to the BCS standings, the Buckeyes are - at least for the time being - the next team in line if either Alabama or Florida State drop one of their final two games. That's not happening this week - the Crimson Tide (vs. Chattanooga) and Seminoles (vs. Idaho) are expected to trample their respective opponents, making the Buckeyes' task even more daunting. They'll need one-sided victories over Indiana and Michigan, coupled with a loss by either of the top-two teams in the final week, to have any hope of playing for the national championship.

    The Buckeyes are currently 34.5-point home faves with a total of 82.5.

    Baylor Bears (BCS rank: 4)

    College football's most prolific team has been hamstrung by what is perceived to be a weak schedule in comparison to the other title contenders. And while that may be true, Baylor shouldn't be overlooked over its final three games. This team can score like few in the history of football and if it can find a way to fill the endzone against nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas, that may be enough - when combined with a Alabama or Florida State loss - to move the Bears past Ohio State and into a spot in the championship game.

    The Bears are 9.5-point road faves at Okie State. The total is currently 78.

    Oregon Ducks (BCS rank: 5)

    The Ducks were on the fast-track to a major rankings showdown with the Seminoles before dropping a stunner to Stanford two weeks ago. That all but derailed any chance Oregon had at challenging for the national championship - but not all hope is lost. The Ducks close the season with home games against Arizona and Oregon State - tougher opponents than some of the competition, but not so tough that they'll prevent Oregon from scoring points by the boatload if it sees fit. They may be a title longshot, but expect the Ducks to ramp up the offensive pressure nonetheless.

    The Ducks are 20.5-point road faves at Arizona with a total of 67.5.

    Stanford Cardinal (BCS rank: 9)

    A loss to USC severely damaged the Cardinal's hopes of landing a spot in one of the top three BCS bowl games. Not only does it have some work to do in order to return to that perch - it will likely need a pair of blowout wins to pass No. 6 Auburn (though No. 7 Clemson may be in trouble, with a game against Alabama to close out the season.) Stanford should have no trouble handling California this weekend, but the season finale against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is no gimme - and unfortunately for the Cardinal, it needs to be.

    Stanford is currently a 31.5-point home fave with Cal in town. The total is 56.

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    Scott Spreitzer CFB Dogpound Smackdown

    Ole Miss

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    Matt Fargo CFB

    Colorado

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    Sam Martin 25* College Football Underdog of the year

    Oklahoma State

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    Sam Martin 20* CFB Early Equation

    Houston

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    Larry Ness 10* Week 13 Goin' Over Total: Kansas/Iowa St. = OVER

  11. #71
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    Aaron's Analysis

    byu
    wisconsin
    michigan st
    hawaii

  12. #72
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    J Clifton NCAAF
    MARSHALL -33
    BOWLING GREEN -26
    NEW MEXCIO STAT + 22 1/2
    NEW MEXICO OVER 66
    HAWAII OVER 62 1/2
    EAST CAROLINA - 6 1/2
    MICHIGAN STATE -7
    LSU - 4
    NORTH TEXAS -8
    OKLAHOMA STATE + 8 1/2

  13. #73
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    METRIC

    Cincinnati/Houston O59



    Michigan +6




    Oklahoma +4.5




    Oklahoma U54




    East Carolina O55




    Hawaii +6




    Hawaii U62.5




    Georgia State +24




    Georgia State O57




    Nebraska +1.5




    Nebraska O48.5




    Indiana +35




    Wisconsin O50




    Utah State O58




    UTEP +16.5




    Utah +1




    New Mexico/Fresno State O66.5 - 2X play




    Vanderbilt/Tennessee U54.5 2x play




    ULM +3.5

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    Purelock

    Temple

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    Chris Justice CBB
    creighton -18

    Rutgers -9.5


    Unc willmington +6


    VALPRASIO -11



    Louisville -25


    North Carolina -7.5


    Old dominion -8

  16. #76
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    Cappers Access

    Michigan St -6
    Wisconsin -16.5
    Notre Dame +1
    Baylor -8.5

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    Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

    Our Free Plays are 1133-855 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years College FB 58-34 this yr, NFL 34-24:

    Free winner 13-5 run SAT: Over 73 LSU/TEX A&M

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    Gamblers Data

    Free Plays Saturday

    Michigan State (fb) -6

    Oklahoma State (FB) +8.5

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    Mighty Quinn

    Mighty missed with St. John’s (-19 1/2) on Friday and likes Wisconsin (football) on Saturday.

    The deficit is 1350 sirignanos

  20. #80
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    Joey cassano

    Ole miss +3
    Arkansas +1
    Tenn-chat +48.5

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