NFL line watch: Lookahead looms for Lions vs. Bucs
By ART ARONSON
Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) at Detroit Lions
There are a couple of 10's out there, but this line is dropping fast. As of writing, a 10 is still available but for the most part 9.5's, 9's and even a couple of 8.5's predominate. Sharps were quick to jump on the double-digit spread.
The once 0-8 Bucs are off back-to-back victories, scoring a whopping 63 combined points in the process. The Lions are coming off a disappointing 37-27 loss in Pittsburgh in which they scored all of their points in the second quarter and would allow the Steelers to post 17 unanswered in the second half.
With the lowly Buccaneers on deck and a game versus division rival Green Bay next week, this sets up as a classic lookahead spot for the home side Sunday.
Spread to wait on
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
The Cincinnati Bengals lead the AFC North with a 7-4 record. The Steelers, Browns and defending champion Ravens are all tied at 4-6. To say this is a big game for both teams would be an understatement.
The loser of this divisional contest will be eliminated from contention. This is the first contest between the clubs this season (they play again at Heinz Field on the final week) and the stakes simply couldn't be higher.
Back-to-back victories for the Steelers, in which they've scored a combined 60 points, has the Black and Gold right back in the conversation. Conversely, the up-and-down Browns have lost four of their last five, including last week's disturbing 41-20 effort at Cincinnati.
It appears bettors believe that Pittsburgh has turned a corner, so if you think that Cleveland has something up its sleeve, I'd recommend waiting a little closer to kickoff before getting down with the Browns.
Total to watch
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (56)
This much-anticipated game will be played on a blustery Sunday night in late November in New England. Unlike the U.S. mail service, Denver QB Peyton Manning isn't quite at his best in rain, sleet, snow and hail.
After eclipsing the number in eight straight contests, the Bronco's high-flying offense has slowed down a bit with both games versus the Chargers and Chiefs falling below the posted number. The Patriots' patchwork offense has been a work in progress all season, looking brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.
This total opened at 56 and for the most part that number predominates. However, there are a few 55.5's starting to make an appearance now as well. This is definitely one total to keep our eyes on as the week progresses.
NFL Top 3: NFC long shots with a fighting chance
The NFC playoff picture is looking messier the turf at Soldier Field.
With several teams still in contention heading into the final six weeks of the season, every game becomes especially pivotal. And while roster composition and health will go a long way in deciding who gets in and who doesn't, the biggest deciding factor could be strength of schedule - particularly where dark-horse teams are concerned.
Here are three teams on the periphery of the playoff race that could rally late in the season (Super Bowl odds courtesy TopBet.eu):
New York Giants (+2,500)
The Giants' odds to win it all have dropped dramatically since Eli Manning and Co. opened the campaign with six consecutive losses. A four-game winning streak hasn't exactly made New York a Super Bowl favorite, but with the NFC East in shambles and the Giants just a game and a half back of division-leading Philadelphia, hope remains alive. Winning back-to-back division games against Dallas and Washington, and surviving a visit from Seattle, are critical, but with Manning playing better and the defense looking strong, the Giants have a shot.
Green Bay Packers (+4,000)
The Packers have gone into a tailspin, losing three consecutive games as they've struggled to make do without injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay was the top team in the NFC North before he broke his collarbone and there's no reason to think they can't be when he returns. Green Bay has several winnable games remaining - Minnesota, Atlanta and Pittsburgh among them - and a healthy Rogers should have little trouble generating plenty of offense against weak pass defenses in Detroit and Dallas.
Arizona Cardinals (+10,000)
Few suspected the Cardinals would find themselves in position to challenge for a wildcard berth this late into the season. But here they are, tied with San Francisco for second spot in the NFC West. With the Seattle Seahawks a good bet to win the division title, the Cardinals and 49ers will likely duke it out for the chance to secure one of two wildcard spots. Arizona has a difficult closing stretch, finishing up with games against the Seahawks and Niners. But with four winnable games leading into that (vs. Indianapolis, at Philadelphia, vs. St. Louis, at Tennessee), the Cardinals could surprise.
NFL Week 12 opening line report: Manning has more than Brady
By JASON LOGAN
Manning vs. Brady treats NFL bettors to football’s version of Frazier vs. Ali in Week 12. However, this time, Frazier (Manning) is swinging a set of cement gloves while Ali (Brady) is throwing around a pair of down pillows.
(We tab Brady as Ali simply because he’s had Manning’s number more often than not and is the more decorated of the two QBs. Please let us know if you have a better sports analogy for this one.)
Oddsmakers have set Brady and the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs hosting Manning and the Broncos Sunday night, but one Las Vegas oddsmakers doesn’t think the line is high enough given the supporting cast surrounding both star quarterbacks.
“I just don’t think (New England has) the talent to beat Denver,” Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. Korner says he brought a spread of Denver -3.5 to the table and sent out -3. However, books are dealing this game as low as New England +1.
“It just looks low,” Korner says of the current spread. “The Broncos bring a lot more to the table. Manning didn’t have great success in these big games as a Colt but in Denver he has so much around him. Denver, by far, has the better talent. I don’t think the Pats have enough this year to make it an easy game.”
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+9.5, 53)
This NFC South showdown has been reduced to a dud Thursday nighter, thanks to the Falcons’ fall from grace.
The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened this game Atlanta -4 when it released its "Game of the Year" odds back in May – a near two-TD swing when compared to what books are dealing now. Some offshores opened as low as a touchdown but took instant action on the Saints, something Korner believes books should be prepared for.
“Atlanta is not going to get well here,” he says. “New Orleans need this win and it’s just asking for money on the favorite and Over. Atlanta just isn’t the same team it was last year and why would you expect something different? Because it’s not going to be. Why would (books) screw around and hope for something that hasn’t been there all season? Keep the Saints high.”
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Most markets are waiting on word of Aaron Rodgers’ status for Sunday’s divisional matchup with Minnesota. But it looks like Cheese Heads may have to grind out one more week before Green Bay’s QB is back from a broken collarbone.
“Not much to say. Rodgers doesn’t figure to be back, so Green Bay -4 on this on,” says Korner, who believes the line would jump to -8 or 8.5 is Rodgers is upgraded to probable. “(The Packers) weren’t blowing people away when he was in, but Minnesota just doesn’t have it. They both need this game. These are the best games to book because they’re the hardest games to pick.”
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5, 46.5)
The Giants have risen from the depths of the NFC East and appear to be one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning four in a row after a 0-6 start. Dallas, on the other hand, comes off the bye week which followed an embarrassing loss to New Orleans in Week 10.
“They’re right back in the mix,” Korner says of New York, which he sent out as a 2.5-point home favorite. “The Giants are the ones who are peaking now and money will be on New York. This spread could go up to -3 but I don’t think it’ll go much farther. Dallas has its big following. It’s a much bigger game than it was three weeks ago.”
Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN
NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10)
Did we learn nothing from Houston’s horrible outing as 10.5-point chalk versus Oakland last Sunday? The Texans are downright terrible yet books have them propped up as 10-point chalk hosting Jacksonville in Week 12.
Yeah, the Jaguars stink something awful but they’ve shown some fight in recent games and are no longer playing with the dark cloud of a winless season hanging over their heads. In fact, Jacksonville has covered in its last two road games – it’s only ATS paydays of the season.
Houston was a much better team last season and still had issues with their lowly divisional foe. The Jags took the Texans to the limit in their most recent meetings, losing 43-37 in OT back in Week 11 of last year, and covered as 15-point pups at Reliant Stadium.
Momma always said, “Don’t bet on bad teams”. And right now, at 2-8, Houston looks like a very, very bad team.
Today's NFL Picks
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (11/21)Game 209-210: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.582; Detroit 135.111
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 9 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+9 1/2); UnderGame 211-212: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.849; Houston 126.937
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+10); OverGame 213-214: Minnesota at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 122.954; Green Bay 136.887
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 40
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-4 1/2); UnderGame 215-216: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 129.549; Kansas City 139.034
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4 1/2); UnderGame 217-218: Carolina at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 138.175; Miami 136.625
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4 1/2); OverGame 219-220: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 126.408; Cleveland 133.629
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); OverGame 221-222: Chicago at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.228; St. Louis 130.116
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 41
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2); UnderGame 223-224: NY Jets at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.784; Baltimore 130.646
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 4; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+4); OverGame 225-226: Tennessee at Oakland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.678; Oakland 128.715
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1); UnderGame 227-228: Indianapolis at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.034; Arizona 135.246
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); UnderGame 229-230: Dallas at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.833; NY Giants 134.716
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 52
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); OverGame 231-232: Denver at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.509; New England 141.251
Dunkel Line: New England by 1; 60
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); OverMONDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (11/21)Game 233-234: San Francisco at Washington (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.796; Washington 129.253
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5 1/2); Under
Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves
Week 12 of the NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining slates on the schedule. It may also be one of the tough weeks for football bettors to handicap, with six games sitting with 1-point spreads.
We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the biggest midweek adjustments to the NFL Week 12 odds as Sunday draws closer:
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Open: -3, Move: -4.5
Early injury news on Vikings RB Adrian Peterson had books keeping a close eye on this NFC North matchup. Even with Peterson upgraded to probable and the Packers rolling with backup QB Scott Tolzien under center, the sharp money pushed this spread past the key number and as high as Green Bay -4.5
“Bottom line, we opened this game way too short in my opinion, as both the public and sharps hammered us at the lower number of three,” Stewart tells Covers. “But since going to Packers -4.5 we've seen steady two-way action. With the news that Peterson has been upgraded to probable, we'll see some support on the Vikings at some point on this game.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions – Open: -9.5, Move -8.5
Tampa Bay is winning over bettors with back-to-back wins, including a blowout over Atlanta last weekend. That’s dropped this spread a full point as of Wednesday with both sharp and public money buying the Bucs against an inconsistent Detroit side.
“We saw more action supporting the Bucs in this game, which came as a surprise to us as for most of the season this has been a bet against team for our bettors and more times than not (the Lions have) been getting the money,” says Stewart. “So with sharp action on the dog and the public also supporting the dog, we're down to Lions -8.5 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number drop even further.”
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins – Open: +4.5, Move +6
This spread has moved with the early money all siding with the road favorite Monday night. According to Stewart, moves past -5 and -5.5 “couldn’t stop the bleeding” and, as of Wednesday, 85 percent of the action is on San Francisco. With the assumption that the public would continue to back the chalk for the primetime game, the books bumped the spread to Niners -6.
“We're already very exposed on this game and its only Wednesday,” he says. “Come Monday, if our liability is extreme then -6.5 isn't out of the question. I just think that's a ridiculous amount of points considering the situation for the 49ers - off two very physical games and now playing back-to-back road games and having to travel all the way back East. No question it's a tough spot for the 49ers.”
Good weather and action for CFL's Riders in Grey Cup
The 101st Grey Cup kicks off on Sunday with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats taking on the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Regina, Saskatchewan.
Some books have the home town Roughriders favored by a converted touchdown after early sharp action on Saskatchewan.
"About 75 percent of the handle is on Saskatchewan right now," Greg Sindall of Sportsinteraction.com told Covers. "The money has come in more balanced since we moved the line."
"Having home field advantage is obviously a huge advantage and I think we will be seeing steady action on the home side as Sunday approaches," Sindall says.
Home field for the Riders is Mosaic Stadium, which is infamous for frigid November games with blisteringly cold prairie winds. But the weather at gametime will be relatively favorable. The high temperature for Sunday in Regina will be around 32 degrees, which is will be balmy considering temperatures were are low as -13 degrees earlier in the week.
"Sunday should be higher temps," Aron Black of bet365.com told Covers. "But possible snow and or wind could force moves, mainly on the total (53.5). As for dealing with the weather, the edge would have to go with the Riders."
bet365.com have the Riders at -7 and the action has been with Saskatchewan and the points at about a three-to-one clip.
NFL Betting Week 12 preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTSINTERACTION
Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 12’s NFL action.
All odds current as of noon ET, Nov. 21
We knew it was coming, but seeing the New England Patriots set as home underdogs still looks strange on the Week 12 odds board. Tom Brady’s crew hasn’t been pegged as a pup at Gillette Stadium since way back in 2005 when – you guessed it – Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts were in town. The Colts cruised to a 40-21 win in that one.
This week Peyton and the Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites, coming off a statement win over the then-unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs. Right now, the Broncos are +344 to win the Super Bowl, second only to the Seattle Seahawks at +330. New England sits at +900.
But if there’s one team that knows how to get under Peyton Manning’s skin, it’s the Pats. In 13 meetings between Manning and Brady, Tom has won nine of those. On Thursday morning our line shifted to New England +2 with about 60 percent of our action coming in on the Patriots. The total has dropped from 56 to 54.5, but we’re still seeing nothing but over money as of Thursday.
Other odds on the move
The New Orleans Saints opened as 7.5-point favorites in a divisional road game at Atlanta earlier this week. That line didn’t last long with all of Atlanta’s injuries. The Saints are now up to -10 with 84 percent of our bettors still supporting the Saints.
The 49ers and Redskins collide for a Week 12 matchup that has plenty of playoff implications. Washington, coming off two straight losses, opened as a 4.5-point underdog and now sits at +5.5. San Francisco has covered in six of its last seven games.
St. Louis hammered Indianapolis in Week 10 and then went on its bye. The Rams opened as a Pick ‘em at home to the banged-up Chicago Bears and have moved to 1-point favorites as they look to improve to 5-6 on the year.
The last time Dallas and the New York Giants got together, the Cowboys won in a shootout. This time, the total opened at 46.5 but has already dropped to 44.5.
Week 12’s most popular bets
Sports Interaction bettors are all over a number of road teams in Week 12:
Following Pittsburgh’s big win over Detroit last week, about 80 percent of our bets are coming in on the Steelers as they head to Cleveland as 2-point underdogs. Meanwhile, 87 percent of our handle is on the Carolina Panthers as 4-point favorites at Miami. That’s the most popular bet on the board as of Thursday.
Inside the Stats: NFL non-conference Overs sizzling
By MARC LAWRENCE
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
7 Come 11
Game 11 of the college football season signals many things. For teams with six or more wins, it’s one step closer to a probable bowl bid. However, teams languishing below .500 are likely to be home for the holidays.
So it is, too, for Game 11 non-winners that ended the previous season with seven or more wins who are playing today off two losses-exact. Our best advice for these teams is to bend over and kiss it goodbye, as these losers have a better chance of learning how to navigate the government health care website than enhancing their bowl chances.
That’s because these 7-plus game winners last year who enter Game 11 this year off two losses-exact with a .500 or less record are 18-38-1 ATS since 1980. San Jose State will assume the role this week. And for what it’s worth, home teams are 8-23 ATS, including 2-14 ATS when they are allowing 26 or more PPG on the season.
While seven and 11 are winning numbers in the first roll at a craps table, together they are losers on the college gridiron.
Last Home Games
With the 2013 college football season heading to the wire, one of our favorite handicapping ploys is now in play, mainly Last Home Games.
For some teams it’s a proud sendoff for seniors who have dedicated their career to success. For others it’s the final curtain on a disappointing season.
From our powerful database listed below are the teams that have met with the best and worst pointspread success in LHG’s (Last Home Games).
All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are most recent trends with a minimum of five occurrences. Enjoy.
Best LHG’s:
Arkansas 6-0, Colorado, 7-0, NC State 5-0, Nevada 5-0-1, New Mexico 6-1, Rice 7-1, South Carolina 6-0 and Stanford 5-1.
Worst LHG’s:
Buffalo 1-7, Clemson 1-6, Florida Atlantic 1-7, Idaho 1-5-1, Louisville 0-5, LSU 1-8, Miami Fla 1-5, Michigan 1-6-1 and Missouri 0-6.
In The Stats
Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites in this condition.
These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 18-22 ATS overall this season, including 13-15 in CFB and 5-7 in the NFL.
According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Central Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Iowa State, Temple, Tennessee, Tulsa and Wyoming on the college gridiron, along with Kansas City in the NFL.
Overwhelming
Our NFL Totals Tipsheet keeps tabs throughout the season on Over/Under scoring tendencies in the NFL. And as reported in this column, the success of OVERS has been outstanding in non-conference games.
After yet another outstanding 4-1 execution of the bookmakers last week, these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 38-12 OVER this season, including a jaw-dropping 14-1 OVER the last four weeks.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be the Arizona-Indianapolis and Carolina-Miami matchups.
Stat Of The Week
From the MIDWEEK ALERT Football Newsletter: New England has been favored in each of its last 75 games in a row at home.
NFL
Week 12
Buccaneers (2-8) @ Lions (6-4)—Tampa Bay is playing better, taking leads of 21-0/15-0/24-6 in first half of last three games; they’ve run ball for 177 yards/game last three weeks, but are still winless on road (1-2 as road underdog), losing away games by 1-20-8-3 points. Lion offense seems totally dependent on Calvin Johnson running amuck; Stafford had 369 passing yards in first three quarters last week at Pitt, but was 0-10 in 4th quarter as 27-20 halftime lead became a 37-27 loss. Detroit is 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Bengals, winning other three games by 10-1-8 points. Bucs’ DL McCoy asked coaches for less stunts and has rushed passer better since; Bucs have five sacks in last two games, after having five in previous five games. Detroit won three of last four series games; but Bucs won four of last five visits here, in what used to be a division rivalry- their last visit here was in ’08. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10-2 vs spread, 2-6-2 at home. NFC South road underdogs are 4-4. Over is 5-0-1 in Bucs’ last six games, 4-1 in last five Detroit games, 4-0 in Lion home tilts.
Jaguars (1-9) @ Texans (2-8)—Good grief, Houston is double digit favorite; they haven’t won since there were two weeks left in baseball season, losing last eight games, and they were favored in three of the eight. Texans are 0-5 vs spread when favored this year, 1-8-1 vs spread overall. Keenum is expected to start again after they pulled him vs Oakland last week; its fairly clear he is better option than Schaub, but Houston has been outscored 51-16 in second half of last three games- maybe Kubiak was looking for a spark. Jaguars are 2-8 vs spread, and they were underdog in all ten- they covered last two road games, winning at Tennessee, but lost other four away games by 10-28-16-14 points (2-3 as road dog). Texans won last five series games by average score of 30-18; Jags are 3-8 in Reliant, losing last three visits here, by 17-10-6 points. Home teams are 0-4-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 22-10 vs spread. Five of last six Jaguar games, four of last five Houston games went over the total.
Vikings (2-8) @ Packers (5-5)—Minnesota scored 20+ points in its last four games, but lost three of them, allowing 34.8 ppg; Vikings are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 10-1-16-4-21 points- they only have two takeaways (-10) in last six games, but Green Bay lost last three games with Rodgers hurt, scoring four TDs on last 32 drives. Expect Pack to pound ball here with Lacy vs Minnesota defense that 182 yards in first meeting, a 44-31 Packer win (-8) four weeks ago that is Green Bay’s last win. Pack was 13-18 on 3rd down at Metrodome; in three games since, they’re 10-33, as there is obviously huge dropoff with Rodgers hurt. In last two games, Green Bay dropped back to pass 79 times, ran ball 50, as opponents stack box against run. Tolzien has been decent (6.6/10.0 ypa last two games) but five INTs doomed him. Minnesota lost seven of last eight series games, dropping last four visits here by 4-38-9-14 points. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Nine of ten Minnesota games went over total; six of last seven Packer games stayed under.
Chargers (4-6) @ Chiefs (9-1)- Curious to see how KC bounces back after good effort Sunday night in first loss of year at Denver, especially with rematch on tap next week; Chiefs are 2-3 as home favorites this year, winning at Arrowhead by 1-24-17-1-6 points. San Diego won nine of last 11 series games, going 3-2 in last five visits here; they’re making sixth trip east of Mississippi this year, third in last four weeks- they’re 1-1-1 as road dogs (were favored in three of last four away games), 2-4 on foreign soil, losing by 3-10-6-4 points. In their last five games, Bolts have eight TDs, nine FGs on 20 drives into red zone (4.15/ppp, not good)- they had ball inside 10-yard line in last minute twice in last three games, couldn’t score either time. Kansas City has held field position edge in every game this year except Week 5 at Tennessee, and that game was even- they’ve started 46 drives 80+ yards from goal line- their opponents have started 81. Home teams/favorites are 4-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Eight of ten KC games, four of last five Charger games stayed under the total.
Jets (5-5) @ Ravens (4-6)—Defending champs split pair of OT games last two weeks, losing 5-hour, weather-delayed game in Chicago last week, after giving up Hail Mary on last play of regulation the week before; Ravens lost four of last five games overall- their last seven were all decided by six or less points. Baltimore is 3-1 at home, 2-0 as home favorite, with only loss 19-17 to Packers. Jets are first-ever NFL team to alternate W-L for first 10 games of a season; they’ve lost seven of eight games with Baltimore, with five of seven losses by 7+ points- they lost all four visits here, by 14-10-7-17 points. Jets are +1 in turnovers in their five wins, -15 in five losses. Ravens have only seven takeaways (-3) in their last six games. Ed Reed helped Ravens win Super Bowl, then got let go; he played 88% of snaps in his first game for Jets last week in Buffalo, has to know lot about this Raven offense. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 2-8. Seven of last eight Jet games went over total; all four Raven home games stayed under.
Panthers (7-3) @ Dolphins (5-5)—Trap game for Carolina, travelling on short work week after emotional win late Monday night; Panthers won/covered last six games, but last two wins were by total of five points over 49ers/Patriots, so letdown possible here. They’re 3-2 on road, winning last three away games by 25-1-18 points, after losing first two at Buffalo/Arizona. Miami upset the Chargers 20-16 last week, allowing two TDs/FG on six San Diego drives into red zone; 5-5 Fish still have shot at playoffs- they ran ball for 104 yards last week with three starting OL out, after having 2 rushing yards in loss to Bucs week before. Carolina has allowed one first half TD this year, outscoring foes 113-45 before halftime- they outscored last four opponents 54-24 in second half, too. Dolphins won all four series games, three by seven or less points; Panthers lost 23-6/27-24 in two visits here, but last one was in ’05. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 7-6-1 this year, but 0-4 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-10, but 6-2 at home. Under is 3-0-1 in Dolphins’ last four games.
Steelers (4-6) @ Browns (4-6)—Home teams are 7-0 SU/ATS in AFC North divisional games this season. Pitt won 17 of last 19 series games, but split last four visits here, after winning nine of first ten visits to face new Browns. Pittsburgh is 6-15 vs spread in its last 21 road games, but they won last two games, scoring 23-37 points (six TDs/23 drives) to get back in divisional race, should Bengals falter. Steelers are 4-2 since they fell to 0-4 with loss in London; they shut Lions out in second half last week- Stafford was 0-10 in 4th quarter, after throwing for 369 yards in first three quarters. Browns won three of last four home games but lost four of last five games overall; they gave up five TDs last week- one by defense, one by punt team, other three on drives of 22-38-52 yards. Cleveland cannot turn ball over four times and win, seeing as they’re 31st in league at driving long field (0.90 ppp on drives starting 80+ yards from goal line). Steeler offense scored 10 TDs in last three games, after scoring 11 in first seven. Average total in last four series games, 26.8. Five of last six Cleveland games went over the total.
Bears (6-4) @ Rams (4-6)—Chicago pulled out OT game vs Ravens last week when it trailed 10-0 early before 2-hour weather delay; backup QB McCown has arguably been better than starter Cutler- they’ve struggled in red zone (two TD/five FGs on 8 trips) in last two games. St Louis scored on defense/special teams in surprising rout of Colts in Indy before their bye; Rams are 2-3 at home, losing last two to Seattle/Titans with backup QB Clemens under center, scoring four TDs on 23 drives, coming close in both games but breaking down when it mattered most. Rams are 4-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-6 when they do not; they’ve scored four non-offensive TDs in their last two wins. Bears are 2-2 on road, scoring 35 ppg, scoring 13 TDs on 48 drives. Would expect lot of Bear fans to make trip for this game. NFC West NFC West non-divisional home teams are 8-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 4-9. Over is 7-3 in Chicago games, 6-1 in last seven Ram games; only one of four Bear games that didn’t go over was when Rodgers got hurt on first drive of MNF game.
Cowboys (5-5) @ Giants (4-6)—Dallas scored two defensive TDs in 36-31 (-3.5) Week 1 home win over Giants, with only one TD drive longer than 16 yards; Pokes are 4-3 in last seven visits to Swamp, but with star LB Lee (hamstring) said to be still out, Giant offense that had 428 passing yards in season opener figures to have big day if weather breaks right. Big Blue won last four games after its 0-6 start, allowing 11.8 ppg, albeit two of games were vs 3rd-string QBs Freeman/ Tolzien (they also shut Foles down). Giants allowed TD on defense/special teams in four of last five games, but they’ve won last three at home, by 16-4-14 points. Dallas is 4-1 vs spread as dog this year; only non-cover was pre-bye debacle in Superdome, when Cowboys had ton of injuries and got steamrolled by Saint squad coming off bad loss. Last week was first time this year Giants scored on first drive of second half (31 plays, 44 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 22-10 vs spread. Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total; three of last four Giant games stayed under.
Titans (4-6) @ Raiders (4-6)—Two teams going in wrong direction and with backup QBs. McGloin won his first NFL start, though Houston turnovers set up first two Raider TDs for 16-yard scoring drives; still he won, now he’s the starter for team that is 3-2 at home, but 0-3 vs spread this season in game following a win, losing by 16-17-29 points. Oakland gave up special teams TD two weeks in row, but in last four games, they’ve run ball for 169.8 ypg, which is good but figures to go down some with mobile QB Pryor on bench. Titans lost at home to Jaguars last week, their fifth loss in six games- they signed Fordham alum Skelton to back Fitzpatrick up this week, another red flag. Titans are -6 in turnovers last six games, after being +9 during their 3-1 start; they won last two series meetings 13-9/38-13; they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, but haven’t been here since 2004. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-10-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 on road. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 5-5 at home. Last four Tennessee games, last three Raider games went over the total.
Colts (7-3) @ Cardinals (6-4)—Arizona coach Arians got this job because of work he did as Indy’s interim coach LY, when Colts’ coach Pagano was ill; he knows lot about Indy offense, figures to have an advantage here against Colt squad that was outscored 66-9 in first half of last three games, but rallied to win two of them. Indy is 4-1 on road, with only loss at San Diego; they won last two away games by FG each. Arizona showed they’re contender by winning last three games vs stiffs, scoring 27 points in all three games; they averaged 7+ yards per pass attempt in all three games, are 4-1 at home, with only loss to Seattle. Cardinals are 6-0 when they allow less than 27 points; they allowed 31 ppg in four losses. Indy won last four series games by average score of 21-12; last time they lost to Redbirds was 1990- they split two visits to desert. NFC West non-divisional home teams are 8-5-1 against the spread; AFC South road teams are 6-6-1. Last four Colt games, four of last five Arizona games went over the total.
Broncos (9-1) @ Patriots (7-3)—Obviously this is a marquee game, but remember that Denver/KC are tied for AFC West lead, play again next week in Arrowhead and that’s the more important game for Broncos, who scored 28-27 points in two post-bye games, after scoring 33+ in first eight. Key variable here is health of Manning’s ankle and how well they protect him. Last week, Chiefs didn’t sack him and Broncos ran ball 36 times, passed 40, more balance than usual. Welker (concussion) didn’t practice Wednesday; would be shocking if he sat this game out. Broncos are 3-1 on road, scoring 38 ppg; they’re 7-3 vs spread, 2-2 on road. Patriots on short week after losing in last 2:00 at Carolina Monday night; they’ve allowed 24+ points in four of last five games, but are 5-0 at home, allowing 22 ppg. NE won last three series games; Broncos lost last three visits here, by average score of 39-13. AFC West favorites are 10-8 against the spread, 5-3 on road; AFC East home underdogs are 7-2. Last two Denver games stayed under the total, after first eight went over; three of last four Patriot games went over.
49ers (6-4) @ Redskins (3-7)—You get idea RGIII annoyed some teammates last week with comments that inferred Redskin coaches were getting outprepared by opponents; team that is falling out of contention at this time of year is a bad investment, and if they start sniping at each other, its lot worse. Redskins are 3-2 when they score 24+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’ve lost three of last four games, with only win in OT over Chargers, and are 2-2 at home. Niners lost last two games; they’ve been held to single digits in three of four losses; Redskins allowed 24+ points in their last six games. SF ran ball for 149+ yards in its last five wins, 115 or less in all four of its losses. Washington allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in each of last five games, which is poor, but can Kaepernick (5.9/3.4 last two weeks) exploit that weakness? 49ers are 10-3 in last 13 series games, winning four of last five played here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 11-5-1 vs spread, 5-1 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-6, 1-1 at home. Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
Phil Steele (Steele Trap)
1-0-1 last week
10-10-1
Rams -1
Cards - 2 1/2
Hondo
57-101
Thursday loser saints
Jets
Giants
Lions
Jags
Minny
Kc
Panthers
Pitt
Bears
Raider
colts
Pats
49ers
best bets= Giants/Bears/Pitt 13-19-1
Football Jesus : Patriots + points
Norm Hitzges Picks of the Pole
November 22-25, 2013 Last week: 17-6
Last two weeks: 37-15
Season: 162-134
NFL
DOUBLE PLAY: St. Louis -1 Chicago
SINGLE PLAYS:
Arizona -2 1/2 Indianapolis
San Diego +4 1/2 Kansas City
Carolina -4 1/2 Miami
San Francisco -6 Washington
Dallas +2 1/2 NY Giants
Dallas--NY Giants UNDER 45
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: Carolina at Miami (Sunday 11/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina -4 (-110) at bookmaker
Four weeks ago, sitting at 3-3, I stated on ESPN that the Carolina Panthers were solidly a top 10 team. Since then they have won four straight games both straight-up and against the spread but amazingly they are still under the radar. Some claimed that their wins came against weak teams, but the last two weeks they added San Francisco and New England to their victims list. Yet still the respect is low. If other big name NFL teams had reeled off six straight wins SU and ATS, they would be posted as a much bigger favorite here. Yet, we get one of the best teams in the league facing a bad team and laying less than a touchdown. That's value you don't often see in the NFL. Carolina has played consistent defense all season, but what they have added now is a consistent offense. That has been even more true when they face a team that is .500 or worse, like the Dolphins. Carolina's last five games vs. a .500 or less team has seen them produce 34, 31, 30, 35 and 28 points - an average of 31.6 points per game. Miami started the season 3-0, but have not been the same team since, as they are just 2-5 in their last seven games. The Carolina offense should have no problems doing what they have done against pedestrian teams, as Miami has allowed 20 or more points to eight of their last nine opponents. Carolina is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road. Make the play on Carolina.
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
4.5* on TENNESSEE
goodfella
new england
Northcoast
Total Pow - Cowboys / Giants Over 45.5
Nelly's Football - NFL Sunday, Nov. 24
#215 San Diego Chargers +5 over Kansas City Chiefs 12:00 PM CT1*
#218 Miami Dolphins +4.5 over Carolina Panthers 12:00 PM CT1*
#222 St. Louis Rams -1 over Chicago Bears 12:00 PM CT
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