11-24-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brett Atkins

100 Dime NFL Winner #4 in a Row
TOTAL - San Diego/Kansas City Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole:
3* Tampa Bay/Detroit over
2* Jacksonville/Houston over
2* Chicago/STL over
2* Indy/AZ over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

150 DIME
-MAX WAGER-
NFL MONEY MOVE
#4 IN A ROW
Arizona

BONUS PLAYS
75 DIME
3-TEAM TEASER
#2 IN A ROW
10pt. Stl, Balt, bucs

20 DIME
3-TEAM PARLAY
Clev, oak, Tb

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney

100 Dime Football
Winner #3 in a Row
Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Raise The Bar
Winner # 3 of 4
Interconfernce Game of the Year
Arizona

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Craig Davis

100 DIME
Winner # 21 of 33
AFC Teaser of the Year
7pt. Balt and Balt over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Michaels

One-and-Only
100 DIME
Marquee Game of the Year
Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Sack
Our top play in the Sunday night game is right where we want it. It's going to be very cold (15 degrees) and history shows that Manning does not have a passer rating any higher than 70 in cold weather. I based this game off of that fact and the fact that Brady has owned Manning at home.


Therefor, I am upgrading this play from a top play to our third biggest NFL pick of the month. I have NEVER had more than 1 of these plays in a month, but for some reason this season in the month of November the NFL has been throwing easy money at us.


So far this season as most of you know we are 4-0 in these picks. After tonight, we will be 5-0 in these picks

New England Patriots +2.5 ($5,000) POUND THIS PLAY!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brady Kannon NFL Side Sun, 11/24/13 - 1:00 PM
dime bet - 218 MIA 4.5 (-110) vs 217 CAR
Analysis: I like this Carolina Panthers team and Cam Newton has been great to watch. They could
be the team that nobody wants to face come playoff time.. but now riding a 6-game winning
streak with huge victories most recently over The 49'ers and The Patriots, we feel there is some
definite line value in favor of the underdog today. Couple this with the fact that Miami is now in
its 3rd game since the Incognito mess.. time heals all wounds and our reports say that this locker
room is on board again.. as evidenced by an outright win as an underdog last week over The
Chargers. The Dolphins are 11-and-1 ATS as non division underdogs when getting less than 10-
points. The Panthers are 0-and-8 SUATS as non division road favorites off of a SUATS win. With
some momentum brewing in South Beach and their spirits on the rise going against what looks to
be a team ready for a letdown, we're taking the points with The Dolphins today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

3 Pack

Colts
Giants
Titans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick Winners Not Your Nose

Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ed Meyer's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Detroit (-8 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: November 23, 2013 @ 9:34:53 PM EST

The Bucs got their revenge last week by hammering the reeling Falcons 41-28 for their second straight win. This is a mammoth letdown spot. Since the start of the 2006 NFL season, road dogs by more than six points are 0-13 ATS when they got same-season revenge at home last week. The SDQL text is:
A and line>6 and pP:L and p:HW and pP:season==season and season>=2006
Note that these teams have lost straight up by an average of nearly 24 points per game and have failed to cover by more than two touchdowns. Every single one of the 13 losses was by more than ten points.
In their last three games, the Bucs have scored 24, 22 and 41 points. This is also qualifies them for a play-against system that reads; “NFL teams are 0-9 ATS (-14.83 ppg) as a road 7+ dog when they scored more points than expected in each of their last three games. The SDQL text is:

A and line>=7 and 0
=20120101

These TD-plus road dogs have lost by an average of 24-plus points and they lost each game by at least two TDs.
The Bucs themselves are 0-7 ATS as a dog when they are off a 9-plus point cover vs a divisional opponent. The SDQL text here is:
team=Buccaneers and D and p:ats margin>9 and p:DIV and season>=2004
Tampa’s BIG game was last week. They went all out and got the big win vs a Falcons’ team that has given up on the season. Here, they are, quite literally, walking into the Lions’ den. After last week’s meltdown in Pittsburgh, Detroit should have a “take-no-prisoners” mentality. Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: DETROIT 41 Tampa Bay 17
Matchup: Jacksonville at Houston
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (43.0 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: November 23, 2013 @ 9:34:53 PM EST

While it can be argued that the Jaguars have a better running game than a passing game, they will not be able to utilize it much here. As a big dog, they will be forced to throw the ball. Last week Henne attempted 42 passes and Jones drew had 14 carries for 23 yards. Jacksonville should be good for 20-plus points here and that should get it over this number.
The Jaguars are 7-0 OU on the road the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog, going over by an average of 16.3 ppg. This one has been active twice already this season and both games went over by double digits. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Jaguars and A and p:PY/p:RY>=3 and p:D and season>=2003
The Jags also qualify for a monster league-wide system that indicates that the OVER is the play when a big dog is off a game in which they couldn’t rush the ball. Specifically, TD-plus underdogs are 40-8-1 OU when they are off a loss in which they threw fewer than two INTs and rushed for fewer than 50 yards. The SDQL text is:
line >= 7 and p:RY < 50 and p:L and p:INT <= 2 and date>=20061127
Note that this system has won nine straight.
Fitting in nicely here is the fact that the Texans are 6-0 OU at home when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25, flying over by an average of 14.7 ppg. The Texans had a huge chance to end their long losing streak, but lost to the Raiders as a nine-point home favorite. They have now lost eight straight after starting the season 2-0. We can see no reason why the defense should be pumped for this one. The Texans’ main goal is to see if Keenum is their starter of the future and they are not going to find this out by watching him hand the ball off.
Take these two OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Jacksonville 24
Matchup: Carolina at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (40.5 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: November 23, 2013 @ 9:34:53 PM EST

This is a great spot to step in with an OVER play. The Panthers are off a huge 24-20 win over the Patriots in which their defense was on the field a long time and in many crucial situations. It looks like a great defensive effort, but the Panthers only forced one punt and allowed 390 yards of offense. If it wasn’t for Ridley’s fumble inside the Panthers’ red zone, the game would have gone over the total and the Patriots probably would have won.
Carolina has now won six straight after starting the season 1-3. The reason is Cam Newton. He was 19-of-28 for three TDs and no INTs last week and he also ran for 62 yards. The Panthers are 10-0 OU (+9.85 ppg) as a road favorite when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week and 7-0 OU (+12.14 ppg) the week after a win in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
Miami qualifies for a 75%-plus system that reads, “Home Dogs are 43-14 OU at home the week after a home game that they did lose by three-plus TDs, as long as the OU line is less than 46. The SDQL text is:
HD and p:H and NB and total < 46 and p:margin > -21 and date>=20091217
This system is 5-0 OU since week six this season. Simply put, home dogs that have the luxury of being at home for a couple of weeks do not play passively.
The Panthers’ D has allowed a completion percentage of 66.7% this season and this is ranked 29th in the league. The Panthers’ D has allowed only 84.5 yards rushing per game and this is 3rd in the league. The Dolphins have a poor running attack and cannot be thinking that they are going to win this one by running the ball. Even if the Dolphins go three-and-out very little clock time will have elapsed, giving both teams more possessions.
Finally, it is worthwhile noting that the league is 6-0 OU the week after hosting the Patriots, going over by an average of 10.0 ppg.
Take these two OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: CAROLINA 31 Miami 28
Matchup: Dallas at N.Y. Giants
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: N.Y. Giants (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: November 23, 2013 @ 9:34:53 PM EST

The Giants continue to be undervalued and the Cowboys continue to be overvalued. Dallas has allowed the most passing yards per game this season at 313.0. They are also dead last in the entire league in rush defense, allowing a whopping 4.86 yards per carry. The Giants are MUCH better coached than the Cowboys. New York should DOMINATE time of possession here and frustrate Dallas.
First of all single-digit home favorites are on a 19-1 ATS run vs any team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. This season, it is 11-0 ATS. The SDQL text is:
t:site=home and -104.5 and date>=20121209
The Giants are 11-0 ATS (+19.05 ppg) the week after a win at home in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. Look at their average margin – covering by +19 points per game. Wow.
Also, NY is 9-0 ATS (+11.6 ppg) the week after a win in which their completion percentage was at least nine points higher than their season-to-date average, as long as they are not being asked to cover six-plus points.
Dallas has been in this pressure spot before. Dallas is 0-10 ATS after week six vs a divisional opponent that is behind them by fewer than four games. The SDQL text is:
team=Cowboys and DIV and 5>wins-o:wins>0 and week>6 and date>=20071118
This is the Giants biggest game of the season – and perhaps the same could be said of the Cowboys. NY is at home and they have done very well in pressure situations. The Cowboys have choked. Dallas is already preparing their excuses. Lay the short number.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 23 Dallas 13
Matchup: Denver at New England
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (+2.5 -107)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: November 23, 2013 @ 9:34:53 PM EST

The Patriots have been in this spot many times before. There is some hotshot team that is playing very well – better than they are. New England has again and again come through with a performance above expectations. The Patriots are 17-0 ATS when they are off a loss and facing a team with a better record, as long as they had at least 21 minutes of possession time in that loss. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and p:L and o:wins>wins and NB and p:TOP>21*60 and date>=20001001
Note that they have covered by an average of more than two TDs in this spot.
Also, New England is 16-0 ATS when they are off a loss and not laying more than a field goal. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and line>=-3 and p:L and date>=20021101
Finally, we’ll present a trend in performance that has one of the highest average margins we have seen. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS as a dog off a SU and ATS loss last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week, covering by an average of 20.3 ppg. In these six games, New England was getting an average of 6.0 points, but they won by an average score of 34.0 to 19.7.
The Broncos are in a very tough spot. The Patriots’ pass defense is tough, but they do not get much press. This season, New England has allowed 56.3% completions this season – second in the league to the Chiefs. The Broncos, on the other hand, have allowed the most passing yards per game of any team in the AFC.
Three points could be very useful here and we’ll grab them.
MTi’s FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 Denver 27
Member Plays
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (40 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: November 23, 2013 @ 9:34:53 PM EST

The Browns’ offense has been struggling and the Steelers know this. Pittsburgh should not take any risks on offense unless the Browns’ offense shows some aggression. These two have the same record on the season and the line is very close to pick. A turnover could decide the game.
This is a big number for these two under these conditions. Cleveland is 0-12 OU (-10.29 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick at home the week after they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog.
Also, the Browns are 0-7 OU (-11.86 ppg) as a home favorite off a SU and ATS loss last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week and 0-6 OU when the line is within 3 of pick versus any team with the same record when they are off a road loss, going under by an average of 16.3 ppg. In these six games, the Browns’ defense has allowed a maximum of 13 points with the opponents averaging 8.0 ppg.
The Browns strength is their pass defense, led by Joe Haden. Pittsburgh is 0-7 OU (-12.00 ppg) as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date.
In a very basic situation, the Steelers are 0-7 OU as a road dog after a win, staying under by an average of 12.3 ppg.
Finally, we have a nice multi-season system that indicates the UNDER. Road teams that are off a win as a home dog in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter are 4-18 OU over the past four years. The SDQL text is:
A and p:WHD and p:M3<0 and date>=20091122
Note the four qualifying games from this season – all double-digit UNDERs. This one could be another.
MTi’s FORECAST’s Pittsburgh 16 CLEVELAND 13
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: N.Y. Jets at Baltimore
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (38.5 -110)
Line Source: Caesars/Harrah's
Posted on: November 23, 2013 @ 9:34:53 PM EST

At first glance, this might look like a low scoring defensive based on the nature of these two teams. However, the Ravens are off a debilitating overtime loss last week simply because they failed to play aggressively in the second half with a lead. The Ravens are 11-0 OU (+20.50 ppg) at home when they suffered a loss by less than six points to a non-divisional opponent last week. The SDQL text is:

team=Ravens and H and NB and p:NDIV and -6
=20021101

These eleven games have gone over by an average of 17.7 ppg. A huge average margin for eleven games.
In addition, the Ravens are 6-0 OU as a home favorite the week after playing an overtime game, going over by an average higher 18.8 ppg on the average. The SDQL text is:
team=Ravens and HF and p:OT=1 and NB and season>=2003
This one makes great sense to us. When they are off an overtime game the previous week, the Ravens can’t rely on their defense for the win, so they play more aggressively on offense. As a home favorite, they have this luxury.
In addition, Baltimore is 7-0 OU (12.7 ppg) when their completion percentage decreased in each of their last two games.
The Jets’ defense was on the field a long time vs the Bills and will be mentally and physically drained. This has been an OVER spot for the Jets as they are 8-0 OU (13.4 ppg) on the road the week after a road game in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
The fast track should help here, as the Jets are 11-0 OU (8.95 ppg) on the road on artificial turf the week after an away game.
Also, the Jets are 9-0 OU (8.67 ppg) on the road after a loss that dropped them to 500 on the season. All of this provides strong, real evidence that desperate teams with tired defenses go over and this is exactly what we have here.
This Jets’ defense has allowed an average of 35.3 ppg in their last three games. Why should the Ravens play conservatively when they have Flacco and a vulnerable defense? Take these two OVER this tiny number – the lowest for BOTH teams this season.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY Jets 31 Baltimore 28

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intpicks
2* Denver - New England Over 53
1* Miami +4.5
1* Green Bay -4.5
1* Tampa Bay +9
1* Arizona -3
1* Dallas - New York Over 45
1* Florida State -12
1* LA Clippers -6


Free Pick
Indianapolis - Arizona Over 45

[Can'tPickAWinner]

northcoast

3.5 Houston over 44
3 St. Louis -1-
3 Baltimore -3-

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin ONeill

San Diego
St Louis
New York Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Budin
BALTIMORE CREW

50 Dime Winner # 33 out of 49


AFC Game of the Year
Baltimore -2.5 Buy the half point

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rainman (John Rainey)
5* St Louis -1'
3* Indy +3
1* Houston -10
1* Cleveland -2
1* Tampa/Detroit over 49

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso 100 NE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction machine reanalyzer w consensus lines
Play Analyzer Results
Rot Date Time (ET) Pick Matchup Line H/O Odds A/U Odds Pick% Play
Value Calc
226 11/24 4:05 PM OAK TEN @ OAK 1.5 -110 -110 60.1 white
234 11/25 8:40 PM WAS SF @ WAS 4.5 -110 -110 57.8 $57
221 11/24 1:00 PM Over CHI @ STL 44.5 -110 -110 57.8 $57
228 11/24 4:05 PM ARI IND @ ARI -3 -110 -110 56.3 $41 yellow
220 11/24 1:00 PM CLE PIT @ CLE -2 -110 -110 56.2 $40
221 11/24 1:00 PM CHI CHI @ STL 1.5 -110 -110 56.2 $40
229 11/24 4:25 PM Over DAL @ NYG 44.5 -110 -110 56.1 $39
231 11/24 8:30 PM DEN DEN @ NE -2.5 -110 -110 55.9 $37
233 11/25 8:40 PM Over SF @ WAS 47 -110 -110 55.8 $36
209 11/24 1:00 PM Over TB @ DET 48.5 -110 -110 55.1 $29
213 11/24 1:00 PM Over MIN @ GB 44.5 -110 -110 54.9 $26
218 11/24 1:00 PM MIA CAR @ MIA 4.5 -110 -110 54.3 orange
215 11/24 1:00 PM Over SD @ KC 44 -110 -110 54.2 $19
213 11/24 1:00 PM MIN MIN @ GB 5 -110 -110 53.8 $15
224 11/24 1:00 PM Under NYJ @ BAL 39.5 -110 -110 53.7 $14
212 11/24 1:00 PM Under JAC @ HOU 44 -110 -110 53.5 $12
220 11/24 1:00 PM Under PIT @ CLE 39.5 -110 -110 53.5 $12
223 11/24 1:00 PM NYJ NYJ @ BAL 4 -110 -110 53.1 $8
218 11/24 1:00 PM Under CAR @ MIA 40.5 -110 -110 52.9 $6
230 11/24 4:25 PM NYG DAL @ NYG -2.5 -110 -110 52.6 $2
>57% is a normal play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

burns

10* Afternoon total
Under Colts