12-1-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Moves - Week 13
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 13!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com databases as of Friday morning.

Tennessee +3.5 - The Colts can essentially lock up the AFC South title if they can win on Sunday against the Titans, but with the way that Indy has been playing, nothing is a given. It seems too easy to back the division leaders at home laying just a hook more than home field advantage against a team which has been playing with its backup quarterback for the last month or so. Tennessee dominated the first half when these teams met two weeks ago, but it was killed in the second half.

Opening Line: Tennessee +4
Current Line: Tennessee +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 65% on Indianapolis

Houston +7.5 - The Texans have been a brutal disaster for the last two and a half months, losing nine straight games, but they haven't been blown out all that often either. They're getting more than a TD at home against a New England which has to be ready to come down off of the high of coming back from down 24-0 last week at home against the Broncos to win in overtime.

Opening Line: Houston +9.5
Current Line: Houston +7.5
Public Betting Percentage: 76% on New England

Miami/New York Over 38.5 - When you look at the raw stats for the Jets and Dolphins, you have to think that this one screams to be an 'under' game. The Jets have scored one TD in their last 31 possessions, and the healthy Dolphins running backs are averaging less than two yards per carry combined in the last month of the season. Both of these teams play stout defense, too. The number isn't moving though, and both meetings last year had at least 39 points.

Opening Line: 38.5
Current Line: 38.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Sunday, December 1

Wichita State is 7-0, but #46 BYU is only team they've beaten that is in top 130; Shockers won by 23 at Tulsa in only true road game- they beat LaSalle of A-13 in NCAAs last spring. Saint Louis is 6-1, losing by 6 to Wisconsin in their only game vs team ranked above #130. MVC road underdogs are 9-8 against spread; Atlantic 13 home favorites are 8-10.

UAB is 5-2 but 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to New Mexico in double OT, by 21 to Temple, both on neutral floor. Blazers are 2nd-worst team in country at forcing turnovers; three of their four wins are vs teams not in top 200. North Carolina lost to Belmont but beat Louisville, so they have talent, but not much experience. ACC road/neutral faves are 14-4.

Oregon State coach Robinson is from Chicago; his Beavers are 3-1 with a win at Maryland but a home loss to Coppin State. OSU is making 61% of shots inside arc (#2 in US). DePaul is 3-3, losing its last two games, both by 18 points; Blue Demons are turning ball over 20.3% of time. Pac-12 underdogs are 4-10 vs spread, Big East home favorites are 11-10.

Kentucky is least experienced team in country; they lost to Michigan St. by 4 in its only game away from Rupp Arena; 6-1 Wildcats are making just 28.9% of 3's, but rebound 48.8% of their missed shots (#1 in US). Providence beat BC/Vandy in top 100 but lost to Maryland by 4; they force turnovers 20.1% of time. Big East neutral court dogs are 6-3.

St Joe's is 3-2, losing to two top 50 teams by 4-17 points;; all three of their wins are by 10+ points. Hawks are making just 63.7% from foul line, despite being #53 in US in experience. Washington State lost three of last four games, losing to Gonzaga by 16, Butler by 7 in its only two top 100 games. Pac-12 neutral court favorites are 4-6 against the spread.

LSU is 4-2 despite turning ball over 22.7% of time, making 30.8% from arc; Tigers grab 43% of own misses (#6 in US); they're 1-2 vs teams in top 100, losing to UMass by 2, Memby 7 but beating St Joe's by 17. Butler was down 14 at half to Oklahoma State in sems, rallied but lost by hoop; Bulldogs' last four games were all decided by 8 or less points.

Purdue lost its first two games in Orlando by 10-15 points; they beat Siena 81-73 at home last Sunday, game where Siena's two highest scorers came off bench. Saints are 2-6, beating St Bonaventure/Cornell by total of three points; they turn ball over 20.8% of time, make 29.5% on arc, 43.1% inside it. MAAC dogs are 13-15. Big Dozen road favorites: 10-9

Oklahoma State made 10-22 from arc, was up 50-32 at half in its 101-80 win over Memphis 12 days ago in Stillwater; Smart had 39 points; State led by 34 with 6:50 left. State was up 14 at half Friday, held on to beat Butler by hoop; Cowboys were just 7-12 from line. Memphis is forcing turnovers 25.6% of time (#7 in US); they beat #41 LSU 76-69 Friday.

Cal-Fullerton lost its last four games, losing by 20-2 in first two games in this tourney; they were down 17 with 8:34 left Friday, rallied to get within hoop, but now they're 2-5 with no top 200 wins. Charleston is #245 after losing first two games here by 20-22; they're 2-5 and trailed by 16 at half in one of wins- they're turning ball over 20% of the time.

Arizona State is trying to play faster but since they're #331 in country in forcing turnovers, opponents' 0:19/possession is in bottom 30 in US and its hard to play fast that way. ASU is making 39% from arc, they're 7-1 and scored 80+ points in five of seven wins. Miami doesn't get to line much, doesn't sub much; they've already played three OT games.

Creighton was up 24-5 in first game of tourney, 19-7 in second, but San Diego State had 26-7 edge on foul line in 86-80 win Friday, even though Bluejays made 13-27 from arc. George Washington was lucky to win in OT Thursday; they were down 21 at half to Marquette Friday, making 4-19 from arc. Creighton is still making 46.7% of its 3's (#3 in US).

San Diego State got to hoop at will vs Creighton Friday, outscoring the Bluejays 26-7 on stripe, mkaing 8-16 from arc; Aztecs force turnovers 20.9% of time, are making 43.6% from arc, but only 45.8% inside arc. Marquette lost by hoop at Arizona State Monday but came to Orange County, won first two games by 20-16, allowing 60-66 points.

VCU led 39-21 at half, forced 24 turnovers (+9) in 75-65 win LY over Belmont; Rams outscored them 15-4 on foul line. VCU forces miscues 27.5% of time (#2 in US) this year but they're 1-2 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 3 at Virginia- they seemed flat since. Belmont won at North Carolina two weeks ago; their only loss is by 8 at Richmond.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 13

Titans (5-6) @ Colts (7-4)—Major concern for Indy squad that was outscored 93-12 in first half of last four games with only one of four opponents (Cards) a playoff contender; oddly, Colts won two of those four games, beating Tennessee 30-27 (-3) on a Thursday in Week 11, using 12-yard advantage in field position to win tight (TY 366-340) game. Colts won nine of last ten series games, winning last five played here, with three of five wins by 10+ points. Season series has been swept in seven of last 10 years. Last three Titan games were all decided by 4 or less points; Titans are 5-0 vs spread on road, 2-3 SU, losing 20-13 in Seattle, in OT at Houston in Week 2, which was Texans’ last win. Colts are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 4-6-6 points and losses to Miami/Rams. In its last five games, Colt defense allowed 27 plays of 20+ yards, giving up 6.9+ yards/pass in all five games. Home teams are 0-5-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season; home favorites are 0-3. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-0 in last five Indy games.

Broncos (9-2) @ Chiefs (9-2)—Denver (-7.5) beat Chiefs 27-17 two weeks ago at Mile High, then both teams lost by FG last week, so winner here leads AFC West with four games left. Season series was split eight of last ten years; Broncos won last four visits here, by 31-4-7-8 points. Not only did Chiefs lose last two games after 9-0 start, remember that win #9 was 23-13 in Buffalo, when KC defense scored two TDs and offense scored none. Chiefs converted only 10 of 34 third down plays in last three games; they had been 37.7% on 3rd down up until then. KC defensive injuries last week make them vulnerable here; if Philip Rivers hung 34 on Chiefs in second half, what will Denver do after Sunday night’s debacle, when they blew 24-0 halftime and lost in OT at Foxboro? Broncos scored 33+ in first eight games, scored 28-27-31 in three post-bye games but in fairness, weather held them back Sunday night; Denver is 3-2 on road, winning by 18-3-8 points, losing at Colts/Pats. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread. Over is 9-2 in Denver games, 3-8 in KC games.

Jaguars (2-9) @ Browns (4-7)—Cleveland is now 1-16 vs Big Ben, has lost five of last six games overall, as another lost season looms on Lake Erie; until they beat Steelers, Browns won’t be taken seriously by their fans, but they have won three of last four games with Jags, who are 2-1 since their bye and were 14-all at half with Cardinals in third game, so they’re still playing hard for rookie coach Bradley. This is their third road game in four weeks, a Florida team playing by Lake Erie on December 1; Jax is won its last two road games, covered last three- they’ve lost road games by 10-28-14-16 points this year, beat Titans/Texans. Browns are 3-3 at home but have been outscored 99-46 in losing all four Weeden starts. Hoyer/Campbell gave fans glimmer of hope, but they couldn’t stay healthy and Weeden seems like lost cause. Jags lost 23-17/14-10 in last two visits here, after winning first four. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread, 5-2 at home; AFC South underdogs are 7-11-1 vs spread, 5-5-1 on road. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both sides.

Buccaneers (3-8) @ Panthers (8-3)—Carolina won/covered last seven games, but last three were decided by total of nine points, with Newton leading winning TD drives the last two weeks- they have first of two games with Saints next week, could be looking past this game. Tampa Bay is +11 in turnovers (12-1) the last four games, after being even in each of first six games, then -1 in 7th game; they picked off nine passes in last four games, but Revis was hurt in Detroit, check status. Bucs were +5 in turnovers last week and blocked a punt, yet won by only a FG, failing to score on both drives that started in Detroit territory and running ball for only 22 yards. Panthers (-7) outrushed Bucs 129-48 in 31-13 win in Week 8; Panthers had 16-yard edge in field position, with short TD drives of 53/29 yards. Bucs won two of last three visits here; season series has been swept in each of last four years. Home teams are 6-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year, home favorites are 4-0. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Buc games, 0-3 in Carolina’s last three games.

Bears (6-5) @ Vikings (2-8-1)—Chicago run defense has been problem; in last five games, they’ve given up 985 rushing yards, 5.7 per carry, including 258 in St Louis last week, when they could stack box against Rams’ backup QB. Bears are 2-3 on road, winning at Pitt/GB, but Rodgers got hurt on first series at Lambeau- they’ve given up 82 games in losing both their dome games, at Lions/Rams. Chicago (-6.5) beat Vikings 31-30 in Week 2, in turnover-filled game (4C/3M) games where both teams averaged 7+ yards/pass attempt; Bears won seven of last eight series games, winning two of last three visits here. Vikings are 1-5-1 since their win in London; they blew 23-7 lead in 4th quarter last week to Packers’ 4th-string QB. Minnesota hasn’t forced a turnover in its last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers over their last six games. Vikings had 232 rushing yards last week; Peterson figures to do more damage here. Series was swept in four of last seven years. Home teams are 3-6 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Over is 8-3 in Bear games this season, 5-0 in last five Viking games.

Cardinals (7-4) @ Eagles (6-5)—Arizona won its last four games, scoring 27+ points in all four (11 TDs on 46 drives); they’re 2-3 on road, beating Jags/Bucs, losing other three by 3-24-12 points. Redbirds outscored last three opponents 39-15 in second half of games, so coaches are making good adjustments; they’ve only turned ball over six times in last five games, none in last two. Eagles won/covered last three pre-bye games, scoring 33.3 ppg, figure to be healthier after bye; they broke long home losing skid last game, have 13 TDs on last 35 drives, averaging 9.5+ yards/pass attempt in all games, but Arizona’s defense held last four foes to 5.5/attempt or less, so good matchup there. Arizona won last three series games, in series where home team won five of last six meetings- this is Cardinals’ first visit here since 48-20 loss in ’08, which they avenged in playoffs that same year. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 8-8 vs spread, 5-5 at home; NFC West underdogs are 6-5-1, 4-4-1 on road. Five of last six Cardinal games went over total; four of last five Eagle games stayed under.

Dolphins (5-6) @ Jets (5-6)—Eight of 11 Miami games (including last four) were decided by 4 or less points; underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in their games. Dolphins won on road in Weeks 1-2, lost three in row on foreign soil since, by 21-10-3 points. Miami has picked off pass in last seven games, but has only 11 takeaways (+1) during that time. Gaggle of teams tied for last AFC playoff spot at 5-6; this is big game. Erratic Jets lost three of last four games with rookie QB and no decent backup behind him- they’ve scored 14 or less points in their six losses, 26+ in four of five wins (18-17 vs Bucs in opener was other win). Jets won four of five home games, losing only 19-6 to Steelers, who were winless at time; they’re -17 in turnovers in six losses, +1 in five wins- they need good field position to score. In last four games, Jets have only 12 points on 24 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line. Home team lost eight of last 11 series games- Miami won four of last five visits here. Underdogs covered five of six AFC East divisional games this season. Average total in last five series games is 32.8. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Miami games; four of last five Jet games went over.

Falcons (2-9) @ Bills (4-7) – Atlanta lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); teams that lost on Thursday night week before are 8-4 vs spread their next game, but Falcons look like beaten team- last time they won field position was in Week 4 vs Patriots. Falcons are 0-5 SU/ATS on road this year, with last three road losses by 14-24-13 points- they haven’t forced a single turnover in their last three games. Buffalo is +7 (13-6) in turnovers in its wins, -4 (7-11) in losses, so they are lot like Jets, playing with rookie QB and trying to avoid miscues; Bills are 4-2 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Atlanta allowed 27+ points in four of last five games. Have to remember Manuel missed some games; they’re 3-3 when he starts/finishes a game, 3-4 in his starts. This is Bills’ annual game in Toronto; they’re 3-3 in games where spread is 4 or less points- they figure to be little healthier, coming off their bye. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; NFC South underdogs are 6-7. Five of last seven Buffalo games, three of last four Atlanta road games went over the total.

Rams (5-6) @ 49ers (7-4)—St Louis lost 30-15 (+6) in only previous outdoor game this season; how is it Dec 1 and they’ve played one game outdoors? Niners are bully team; their last six wins are all by 12+ points, but they’ve lost four games, averaging 5.9 or less yards per pass attempt. In their seven wins, they’ve been at 6.7+ six times and 6.0 in the other game. Rams just outscored last two foes 80-28 in winning twice with backup QB Clemens under center, using big plays in all three phases to score; they’re +7 in turnovers last two games; only once in last five games (Titans) have they allowed more than 102 rushing yards. St Louis is 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 7-24-15 points, winning at Texans/Colts, two domed stadiums. SF gets Crabtree back from injury here, which figures to help pass offense now in dogfight with Cardinals for Wild Card spot; they beat Rams 35-11 (-3) in Week 4 Thursday game, outrushing Rams 219-18, holding Rams to 188 TY. St Louis has played better since Bradford got hurt; not the backup QB, but OL, defense and special teams have picked it up.

Patriots (8-3) @ Texans (2-9)— In their last four games, NE outscored opponents 106-42, after being outscored 61-30 in first half of those games; in last two games, they’ve been outscored 34-3 in the first half, but each game came down to last minute. Potential trap game for Pats, coming off of last-minute primetime decisions with Carolina/Denver and with AFC East salted away; NE lost its last three road games and its only two wins on foreign soil are 23-21 at Buffalo, 30-23 at Atlanta in Weeks 1-4. Patriots are 4-3 as favorites this year, 0-2 on road. Texans are horrendous, losing last nine games, with only one cover all year, Week 7 at Arrowhead. Houston have only forced a turnover in four of 11 games this year; they’ve converted only 13 of last 47 3rd down plays and gained only 218 yards last week, at home vs 2-9 Jaguars. Patriots only lost field position battle twice this season; they’ve got 10 takeaways (+3) in last four games. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 7-11-1 vs spread, 2-6 at home. Three of last four Houston games went over the total.

Bengals (7-4) @ Chargers (5-6)—San Diego’s upset at Arrowhead last week snapped 3-game skid, put them in six-team logjam for last AFC Wild Card slot; four of their last five games are at home, where Bolts are 2-2, losing to Texans/Broncos, beating Dallas/Colts. Chargers have turned ball over only four times (+4) in last six games, after giving it away 10 times (-7) in first five games- they’ve had 26 plays of 20+ yards in last five games. Bengals are off bye, appear headed to AFC North title in down year for division, but loss here cuts their lead to one game over winner of Steelers/Ravens. Cincy is 5-0 when it scores 27+ points, 2-4 when it doesn’t; they’re 2-4 on road, with only wins by FG at both Detroit/Buffalo. Bengals are 0-3 on grass fields this season. Three of last four SD games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Bengals won last two series meetings 34-20/20-13; they’ve lost five of last seven visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 8-5-2 against the spread, 4-3-2 on road; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. I’m thinking a Week 12 bye has to help a team’s legs recover.

Giants (4-7) @ Redskins (3-8)—Washington looked like dead team Monday night, with RGIII unable to run fast enough to get out of bounds to avoid hits; inserting Cousins would give shot in arm to passing game, but would create other, bigger problems since this season is shot anyway. Redskins won three of last four series games, after Giants had gone 9-1 in last ten series games before that, winning 28-14/17-16 in last two played here, but they’ve lost five of last seven games, with none of losses by less than 7 points, while two wins were 45-41/30-24, narrow wins. Skins are 3-2 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Giants didn’t play road game in November; they’re 1-4 SU on road, with only win 15-7 (+5.5) at Philly; Big Blue had 4-game win streak snapped at home by Dallas last week, a deflating loss that basically ended their season. Giants allowed a TD on defense/special teams in five of their last six games. NFC East divisional home teams (all HFs) are 4-5 vs spread this season. Three of Giants’ last four road games stayed under the total.

Saints (9-2) @ Seahawks (10-1)—New Orleans offense isn’t nearly as potent on road (19.2 ppg) as in Superdome (32.7) but Seattle has attrition issues at CB and this is bad time for that. Seahawks won last six pre-bye games, have had 15 days since last game; they’ve got 3-game lead in NFC West, so not as much urgency as Sants, who are battling Carolina in NFC South and still have to play Panthers twice, with first meeting next week. Seahawks are 3-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 21-28-7-3-21 points- they were favored by 13/16 points in two non-covers. Saints’ two losses are 30-27 in Foxboro, 26-20 at Jets; they’re 1-1 as underdogs this year, winning SU in Chicago. NO defense allowed only five TDs on 31 drives in last three games, giving up 16.7 ppg. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 8-4-1 at home. NFC South underdogs are 6-7, 4-4 on road. Teams split 12 series meetings; Seattle won last one 41-36 here in 2010 playoffs. Saints don’t want to be coming back here in January. Three of last four Seattle home games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY

4* BEST BET = CAROLINA
3* = N.Y. GIANTS
2* = CHICAGO
2* = ARIZONA
2* = "OVER" ON SAINTS/SEAHAWKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Chicago Bears PK over Minnesota Vikings
(System Record: 40-3, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 40-39-1

Hockey Crusher
Detroit Red Wings +112 over Ottawa
(System Record: 32-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 32-19

Basketball Crusher
Columbia +6 over Elon
(System Record: 14-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 14-20-1

Soccer Crusher
Gimnasia LP + Quilmes UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 488-17, lost last game)
Overall Record: 488-423-71

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

10 Denver
10 Minnesota
10 Jets
10 Bills
10 Arizona

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Depaul -2

100* Bills -3.5

50* Bucs +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE
NFL KEY RELEASES
SEATTLE over New Orleans RATING: 3
SAN DIEGO over Cincinnati RATING: 4
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore RATING: 4
CAROLINA over Tampa Bay RATING: 5
ST LOUIS over San Francisco RATING: 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS REPORTER
BEST BET
*BUFFALO over ATLANTA by 16
(At Toronto) To win this bet, the 2-win Falcons would need to stay very close
or win a road game against a stranger they face only once every four years,
a Bills team with a first-year coaching regime and tendencies that have yet
to be established. In recent seasons, Buffalo’s home edge has been lessened
by playing one game indoors in Toronto, where the outdoor elements for the
road team, against a good Buffalo rushing offense, don’t come into play. But
without cold weather and wind to “ice” Matty Ice -- who is no longer Matty
Ice but Matty Not-No-Nice, the Bills can put their pass rush (NFL-high 37
sacks helping to create an NFL-high 16 interceptions) to work against the
relatively poor Atlanta o-line. The hapless Falcons rose up and played a close
one at home vs. division-rival New Orleans when the world was last forced to
watch them. The Saints did Atlanta a favor and withheld the very important
game-changing RB Darren Sproles from that affair. By contrast, coming off a
bye week – not a short week -- ought to give the Bills an opportunity to have
as healthy an offensive backfield as possible (C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson
are always “probable” with some kind of injury), and get receivers like speedy
Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin – who have been nursing injuries –
back on the field to stretch it in a way that Atlanta’s banged-up and lousy
defense cannot defend well. Since the Jets’ rookie QB Geno (I Can’t Play Well
on the Road) Smith could put 30 points on the board at Atlanta, Bills’ rookie
QB E.J. Manuel and his buds should do even better. BUFFALO, 37-21.

RECOMMENDED
TAMPA BAY over *CAROLINA by 1
The Bucs are into their best investment situation: road underdogs of more
than a touchdown. Even at Denver last season, these guys lost by only 8
points. Of course, they didn’t cover the spread that day. But this number,
against a Panthers team that has already recorded its share of blowout wins
and probably can’t blow out a physical, division rival, is more Tampa-friendly.
Speaking of division rival, you may or may not have realized that Carolina
has done all the good they’ve done this season playing only two NFC South
games. Although they won them by 18 against the Bucs and 24 against the
Falcons, the Bucs game was played off a short week while Tampa was still
adjusting to dealing with rookie Mike Glennon at quarterback, and without
Doug Martin at running back. They are starting to find their way around the
field more comfortably, and this revenge re-hook comes with the Panthers off
three straight, all-out, 60-minute efforts vs. the 49ers, Patriots and Dolphins.
They’re calling Panthers’ head coach Ron Rivera “Riverboat Ron” for a string
of successful gambles in close games, but that’ll eventually change to “Up
the River Ron” when the luck starts to even out. TAMPA BAY, 24-23.

RECOMMENDED
*INDIANAPOLIS over TENNESSEE by 14
The Colts split their last four games and all of a sudden they are frauds, being
called out loudly by the public for not being true contenders. Have these blowhards
taken a good look at the AFC? Is it so shocking that the non-conference
road opponent with the fantastic defense (and the head coach that just happened
to be Indy’s offensive coordinator last year) was able to take down a
young Colts team on the road? We certainly expected it to happen, just as we
expect the Colts to rebound at home against a divisional foe that conveniently
bought themselves some points on the line by beating the Raiders on the
road. Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t played too poorly since taking over for Jake
Locker, but the Titans will lean on Chris Johnson against a thin Indianapolis
front seven – or at least as long as the game stays close. Pep Hamilton, Indy’s
current offensive coordinator, is obsessed with the idea of mounting a power
running game as the engine to his offense, but the non-performance of Trent
Richardson is going to force his hand in this one. The Colts’ season will come
down to Andrew Luck’s right arm and it’s about time his coaching staff comes
to terms with that fact. The Golden Boy has never lost a game to the Titans
and we don’t think it will happen here. INDIANAPOLIS, 31-17.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PLAYBOOK
3​* BEST BET
Ny Giants over WASHINGTON by 11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS
****BEST BET
Arizona over *Philadelphia by 17

***BEST BET
*Kansas City over Denver by 12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERSWEEP
4* NY JETS by 13 over Miami

3* BUFFALO by 7 over Atlanta (Toronto)

2* Arizona by 1 over Philadelphia

SYSTEM
Play the Under if a road team won SU as a double digit road dog 1991-2013 21-8 72%
THIS WEEKS PLAY:
Jaguars/Browns: UNDER
NFL OVER/UNDERS
3* TB/CAR - UNDER
3* NE/HOU - OVER
3* CIN/SD - OVER
2* CHI/MIN - OVER
2* MIA/NYJ - OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERPLAYS
4* BILLS 28 FALCONS 18
3* CARDINALS 23 EAGLES 22
2* BRONCOS/CHIEFS: OVER
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 31 CHIEFS 25

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's NFL PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

NY GIANTS (447) AT WASHINGTON (448)
Latest Line: Washington 0.0; Total: 45.0

The Giants try to salvage their slim playoff hopes when they face the Redskins for the first of two December meetings. New York's four-game win streak ended last week in a 24-21 defeat to the Cowboys, while Washington dropped its third straight contest in a 27-6 blowout home loss to the 49ers. The home team won both meetings in this series last year, with the Giants forcing four turnovers in a 27-23 home win, before the Redskins returned the favor with 207 rushing yards in a narrow 17-16 victory. New York is 1-4 SU on the road, scoring a paltry 14.8 PPG, but Washington has allowed 30.4 PPG and 391 YPG at home.
FORECASTER: Washington 24, NY Giants 22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Erin Rynning

20* Texans over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe comps

Cleveland -7 over Jaguars
Jacksonville has not gotten the production they have needed this year from MJD. This passing attack is weak based on just having limited personal at receiver. Cleveland is a legit top 5 defense. This is a good football team and now Brandon Weeden finally gets a chance to get his job back after going down with injury early in the year. I don’t think the Jags have enough offense in this weather and in this environment to stay in this game today. Take Cleveland.

Houston +7 over Patriots
New England made a historical comeback last week against the Broncos at home. It is very hard to switch the flip and get back into game mode after celebrating a big win like that. With that being said if there is a team that could do it without a doubt it is this Patriots team. Houston has a great defense. This team has been hit hard with the injury bug this year, but have quality players. New England is so banged up on defense that they should not be favorites at this price on the road. This team has lost key guys on the defensive line and key tacklers on defense. This New England Secondary is also banged up. Gary Kubiak will return to the sideline today so that is a huge emotional lift for this Houston team. Take the Texans.

Vikings -1 over Bears
Chicago’s Defense is awful. I didn’t think I would ever say such a thing, but it is true. Josh McCown seemed to be a great fit as a backup a few weeks ago, but guess what? That is incorrect. Minnesota can run the football and they have the ability to stop the fun. This Vikings team is feisty and it is their team that is the big threat in the return game this year. I just don’t see Chicago winning football games with Cutler out of the lineup. We saw how awful they were last week in St. Louis. Today they are in a similar environment and I expect Peterson to carry his team at home today. Take Minnesota.

Miami +2 over Jets
Usually it’s tough this time of year for a warm weather team to come up and play football, but it is not that cold today. My problem with the Jets is simple. Geno Smith throws too many INT’s and these receivers are as weak as it gets as a unit. Miami has a lot of speed on defense and can create a lot of turnovers. The Dolphins are at least making smart decisions and not turning the football over. Look for Miami to get a big road win and be back in the wildcard hunt. Take the Dolphins

Denver -6.5 over Chiefs
One major thing I try to avoid is going against Seattle and KC when they are at home. Denver has some defensive injuries that could be a problem today, but this KC offense is just not built to go up and down the field and I just see it impossible for them to pace a high powered Denver Offense with so many weapons. For as bad as we think it is for Denver it is 10 times worst for Kansas City. The Chiefs are really starting to doubt themselves now losers of 2 straight. This is a good football team with a great defense, but they have injury on the front 7 today and I just don’t see them stopping a hungry Denver team that let a game get away from them last week. There will always be a man open today for Denver. Take the Broncos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

10* NFL Wk 13 Goin Over Total = Houston/New England OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hampton Sports Picks
- For Sunday! Play at +3.5 for a -115 line!

100* - Arizona Cardinals +3.5 / -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

New England -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

NFL
2* Chicago Bears+1.5

4* Denver Broncos -4

5-Unit NFL Game of the Week
San Diego (pk)