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Northcoast
Early Bird - Indianapolis Colts -5½
Power Play - Atlanta Falcons -6
NFL Totals Pow- Jets / Panthers Under 40½
Economy Club - New Orleans Saints -6
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NFL Opening Line Report Oddsmakers Padding Postseason Pushes
by Jason Logan
This point of the NFL season can be especially tricky for books and bettors, with teams in pursuit of the playoffs either bursting with added motivation or crumbling under the postseason pressure.
There can be good value spotting a team going all out down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers aren’t ashamed to say their padding the lines for those must-win games.
“As we go into the final few weeks, we really want to hedge higher on those teams fighting for the playoffs,” says Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “This is time of year we admit to adding a couple points to those teams that really need a win.”
There are plenty of games on the Week 15 schedule with postseason implications.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+2)
The Patriots will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski for the remainder of the season after he shredded his knee in Sunday’s thrilling win over Cleveland. According to Korner, Gronkowski is worth as much as two points to New England’s spreads.
“He’s a big hit to take and we’ve seen that already this year, with how poorly the Patriots played without him,” Korner says of Gronkowski. “He’s a point in a half, maybe even a two full point bump right off the bat. We’ve seen this offense struggle without him.”
Korner’s oddsmakers brought spread of New England -2 and -3 to the table, so they sent out the Patriots as 2.5-point road favorites in Miami.
“This is going to be a big dog play with the public,” he says. “Miami does need this game and could win straight up. Bettors are looking at how New England stalled versus Cleveland and needed a lucky hometown call to win the game. I just think dog players are going to be all over this one.”
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (N/A)
The Packers continue to play the waiting game on star QB Aaron Rodgers. Korner says they sent out Dallas -2.5 with Rodgers in the lineup and would suggest Dallas -8.5 or -9 if he is ruled out again while recovering from his broken collarbone.
“He’s a full six or seven points,” Korner says of Rodgers impact on this spread. “Green Bay is trying to stay in the mix and they want to play him if they can. He wants to play if he can. The line somewhat depends on how Dallas does (Monday). But with that game in the cold on the road, it may not matter much overall.”
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6)
Both the Ravens and Lions played in crazy snow games this past Sunday, but will nice and warm inside Ford Field on Monday Night Football.
Korner is expecting a heated primetime clash between two teams in the playoff hunt and sent out Detroit as a 3.5-point home favorite while offshores posted a bigger number at Lions -6.
“This is a must-win for both teams, so we sent it out pretty much at the pick’em when you factor the home field,” he says. “With weather not being a factor and them playing on a fast track indoors, we’ll see the true colors of both teams."
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NFL Line Watch Colts backers should act fast
Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6)
If you like the Colts to bounce back from their 42-28 drubbing in Cincinnati last week and hand the Texans a 12th straight loss, I'd recommend jumping on this line as soon as possible. As of Monday afternoon, there is still a -6 available but 6.5's have already started to become the predominate number, with even a 7 on the board as well.
Indianapolis beat Houston 27-24 back in Week 9, a contest in which it was trailing 21-3 heading into the break. Interestingly, that was the game that ex-Texans head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at half time with the heart issues (Kubiak of course was sacked after last week's 27-20 setback at Jacksonville).
The end of the season can't come quick enough now for Houston which has clearly thrown in the towel, with games at home versus Denver next week and at Tennessee to finish the year.
Spread to wait on
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
As mentioned above, Cincinnati had little trouble with Indianapolis last week, thrashing it 42-28. Pittsburgh though would stumble last Sunday, losing 34-28 to Miami in the closing moments, which was on the heels of a hard-fought 22-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 13.
This line opened at +2.5, but sharps have been quick to jump on the high-flying visitors, with +3 pretty much the predominating number now. If you think the home side can stop its two game slide and avenge a 20-10 setback at Cincinnati in Week 2, then I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting involved.
And if you're a Bengals backer, just keep in mind that playing on the road has been their Achilles' heel for bettors for the last few seasons, coming into this contest at just 2-5-1 ATS their last eight away from friendly confines.
Total to watch
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (46)
Under bettors would be wise to get on this number right now. It opened at 46, which is still being offered at some books, but 45.5 has for the most part been taken over the board.
Whenever these divisional foes get together it has been a battle, as evidenced by the fact that the total has finished Under the number in five of their last six in the series. That wasn't the case back in Week 9 when the Colts stormed back for a 27-24 victory. Indianapolis scored 24 points in the second half, 15 in the fourth quarter.
But the firing of Kubiak is a clear signal that the visitors are planning for next year, and while the home side has locked up the division, there's no question that it will be looking to atone for the dismal defensive effort in Cincinnati last Sunday. Expect this number to continue to fall as the week goes on.
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Number of Points Produces 11-5 NFL 'Over/Under'
Throw everything you know about handicapping winter weather out the window – if you don’t mind opening the window in this kind of cold.
Old Man Winter ravaged a number of Week 14 games but couldn’t freeze out the NFL’s red-hot offenses, with 90 touchdowns being scored during Sunday’s 14 games. Add to that Jacksonville’s 27-20 win over Houston Thursday and Chicago’s 45-28 blowout over Dallas Monday and there were 859 total points scored – the most in any week in NFL history.
All those points added up to an 11-5 'Over/Under' record for Week 14.
The only games that played Under the total were Tampa Bay’s 27-6 win over Buffalo, Green Bay’s 22-21 victory versus Atlanta, Arizona’s 30-10 win against St. Louis, San Francisco's 19-17 win over Seattle and New Orleans’ one-sided 31-13 victory over Carolina Sunday night.
The Packers’ home win was the only game of those five that was played in the cold but didn’t see nearly as much snow as games played outdoors on the East Coast. Detroit, Washington, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all had substantial snow fall before and during the games, but all tipped the total. Those four games combined to score 226 total points.
Denver Broncos head coach John Fox, who had to battle the chilly Mile High weather but no snow Sunday, told the media that the slippery conditions don’t handicap an offense but actually help it. The winter weather helped kick returners give coverage the slip, with five return touchdowns scored in those snow games Sunday.
"Some people don't understand that," Fox told USA Today. "That's why you saw a lot of those long touchdowns, particularly in the kicking game, as well, as when guys can't get their footing, they miss tackles, and that creates explosive plays."
That eruption of offense in Week 14 hasn’t done much to sway the oddsmakers’ methods for setting the NFL Over/Under in Week 15. Only a handful of totals are sitting in the 50s with a few dropping as low as 40.5 points.
And the weather is a little better for Sunday’s action. Only two games – Chicago at Cleveland and Seattle at New York – have snow in the forecast.
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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
by Jason Logan
Albert Einstein was no big NFL bettor, but his definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. By that logic, Einstein is getting down on the Indianapolis Colts -6 against the Houston Texans while the gettin’ is good in Week 15.
Sportsbooks continue to give credit to the Texans week after week, despite not wining since Week 2 of the schedule and losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Thursday. That primetime spanking cost Houston head coach Gary Kubiak his job, leaving defensive coordinator Wade Phillips at the wheel in the final week of the season.
Houston was a 3-point road favorite in Jacksonville last week, and outside of a valiant effort against the Patriots in Week 13, hasn’t done anything to warrant the respect books continue to give the Texans. They are just 3-10 ATS and are likely looking ahead to the NFL Draft, where a No. 1 overall pick would hand them the QB of their choice.
But for now, Houston rides out the final games of 2013 with Case Keenum as the team’s elected starter and Matt Schaub backing him up. The biggest issue is that Keenum was Kubiak’s guy. The two worked very closely when Schaub went down with a leg injury and the young QB could be rattled without his corner man.
The Colts clinched the AFC South despite losing to Cincinnati Sunday but head coach Chuck Pagano says he won’t rest his players. He’s not happy with their current form – splitting wins and losses in their last six – and told reporters they have plenty to work on before the postseason begins.
New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+5.5, 46.5)
The difference in the Saints’ play at home and away is about as glaring as the difference between Tara Reid circa 1999 American Pie and Tara Reid circa 2013 Sharknado: Smoky-voiced blonde bombshell vs. Dog-chewed leather slipper.
However, books have taken this home/away split a little too far in Week 15, setting New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite in St. Louis.
Football bettors have watched Drew Brees and New Orleans stall on the road in outdoor venues like Seattle, New York, Chicago and Tampa Bay but won’t be battling the elements inside the Edward Jones Dome Sunday.
The Rams defense was keeping the team competitive but has cracked the last two games, allowing 53 points in losses to San Francisco and Arizona. St. Louis’ dreaded pass rush had just one sack on slow-motion QB Carson Palmer this weekend. Brees has been sacked just 26 times all season.
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Vikings' Peterson won't need surgery, unlikely for Week 15
Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson avoided serious injury and won't need surgery on his sprained right foot, but is unlikely to suit up in Week 15 versus the Philadelphia Eagles, sources said.
ESPN reported, Peterson, who sustained the injury in the second quarter of Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens, went through a bevy of test on Monday. X-Rays came back negative and an MRI showed no structural damage. But when the results of a CT scan came back it was determined that the reigning MVP would have to spend some time in a walking boot.
The Viking (7-6 ATS), are currently 4.5-point home dogs against the high-flying Eagles, who have won five in a row (4-1 ATS in that span). So keep an eye on the spread, because if Peterson is officially ruled out this week look for that number to jump even more in the Eagles favor.
Minnesota is now 3-9-1 and are officially eliminated from the playoffs, so they may not have much reason to rush Peterson back.
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Which Super Bowl sleeper is the next Ravens, Giants, Packers?
by Chase Ruttig
With three weeks left until the NFL playoffs begin, now is the time to start looking for value when it comes to Super Bowl futures.
Out-of-nowhere Super Bowl winners like the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, and Baltimore Ravens have been the trend recently, as the NFL becomes more and more about who is hot in January.
Here are some underdogs that might make you look smart at your Super Bowl party this year as you have them to win the big game with tasty odds to boot:
Kansas City Chiefs (10-3, 1st in AFC Wild Card): +3,000 to win Super Bowl
The Kansas City Chiefs may have lost three times to AFC West opponents in 2013, but they are still the second best team in the AFC in what is a down year in the conference.
Playing on the road will be a challenge for the Chiefs. But with one of the best running backs in the league in Jamaal Charles, a steady veteran QB in Alex Smith and a quality defense, the Chiefs could be dangerous if they get rolling heading into the Wild Card.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-4, 1st in AFC North): +1,200
Don't look now but the Bengals are red hot heading into December. A win in Week 14 gave them their third straight win and got Cincinnati another step closer to clinching the AFC North title. With the Patriots banged up and history going against Peyton Manning (the last QB who won the Super Bowl at Manning's age was John Elway), there is a very good chance we see another Ravens-like run in the AFC.
Cincy won't give you great odds at 12/1 which is a drawback, but it might be the best bet outside of the big favorites thanks to one of the most talented teams in franchise history. In a down year where everyone is hurt, it could finally be the Bengals’ year.
Arizona Cardinals/Philadelphia Eagles (8-5 2nd in NFC Wild Card), 30/1 (8-5 1st in NFC East): +6,000/+2,500
In a playoff pool that will have the Seahawks or Saints likely playing two games at home on their way as favorites to the NFC Championship, a dark horse is much less likely to emerge from the pack and topple those rock-solid home teams. Mix in the 49ers and the Panthers and it would take a miraculous effort to make a run to the Super Bowl.
If you are going to take a non-favorite in the NFC you might as well go long and you can't go wrong with two teams with electric wide receivers who have been dangerous when things have been going well this season.
Chip Kelly has Philly playing to its level that was shown at the start of the season and Nick Foles appears to be the right fit at QB while Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald have turned back the clock to keep Arizona floating in the tough NFC West. The Eagles are the safer bet of the two (moved from 60/1 to 25/1 after Dallas' loss Monday), but the Cardinals have shocked the world with the help of Fitzgerald before. At 60/1 it’s worth a look, but it’s the long shot of the bunch.
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Inside the stats NFC vs. AFC continues to play Over
by Marc Lawrence
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Coaching down the stretch
The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.
It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part, this adage is right on the money. More often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.
The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure - whichever the case may be.
From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the best and worst current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis) heading into the 2013 season. All results are ATS (Against The Spread).
BEST:
Home: Rivera (Car) 4-1
Away: Frazier (Min) 5-1
Favorite: Fox (Den) 16-9-1
Dog: McCarthy (GB) 7-0
WORST:
Home: Garrett (Dal) 2-4
Away: Jim Harbaugh (SF) 1-4
Fav: Garrett (Dal) 1-5
Dog: Reid (KC) 2-4
Pennzoil play
Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be “leaking oil” when installed as favorites.
These “leaking oil” favorites now stand at 29-33 ATS overall this season, including 21-23 in NCAAF and 8-10 in the NFL.
According to our findings, this week’s only play would be against the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL.
Passing fancy
Here is a list of the league’s Top 10 best passing offenses and worst passing defenses.
Play accordingly.
Best Pass Offenses
Denver 341.2
New Orleans 302.8
Detroit 296.5
San Diego 288.7
Chicago 276.8
Atlanta 267.8
Pittsburgh 266.8
New England 265.9
Green Bay 265.5
Cleveland (surprise) 260.4.
Worst Past Defenses
Philadelphia 285.3
Minnesota 281.9
Denver 274.3
Washington 256.7
Jacksonville 256.5
Detroit 255.8
NY Jets 254.9
Oakland 250.2
St. Louis 248.9
Green Bay 246.8
Red Rover, Red Rover
Despite the Sunday snowstorms in the NFL last week, they did it again.
We’re talking about the wildly successful Over plays on the pro football card with 11 of the 16 games exceeding the total.
The games went Over by an average of 8.9 points. It was easily the highest-scoring week of the season as there were 85 touchdowns on Sunday (an average 6.1 TDs per games).
Last week’s four non-conference game produced a 3-1 winning tally for Over players, moving the season-to-date record to a mind-blowing 44-14 O/U in these games, including 23-4 O/U the last seven weeks.
This week’s 'Over' achievers would be:
Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
N.Y. Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit (Monday night) game.
Stat of the Week
Texas Tech was 0-5 SU/ATS against fellow bowl teams this season.
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Marco D'Angelo
5 NFL Plays On Sports X Radio
Washington Redskins+6
Oakland Raiders+4.5
Buffalo Bills-2
Houston Texans+6
St. Louis Rams+5.5
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches
Week 15
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 15:
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+7, 41.5)
Seahawks’ early rise vs. East Coast
The Seahawks internal clocks won’t know what hit them when they take the field at MetLife Stadium Sunday. Seattle and New York are scheduled to kick off at 1 p.m. ET, which is 10 a.m. ET back home in the Emerald City. The Seahawks have been able to overcome the time difference this season, going 3-1 SU and ATS in 1 p.m. ET starts but are just 4-4 SU and ATS in those early games over the past two seasons, which says a lot for a team that is 20-9 ATS during that span.
Not only does Seattle need a couple cups of coffee Sunday morning but it will also have to bundle up. Temperatures in East Rutherford are expected to dip below freezing and snow is in Sunday’s forecast. The Seahawks may be used to the rain and warmer winters on the West Coast but didn’t fare well in their last foray in the snow, losing 35-24 to Chicago in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs in 2011.
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 45)
Bears’ fourth-quarter scoring vs. Browns’ fourth-quarter collapses
Jay Cutler. Josh McCown. It may not matter who’s under center for the Bears with the way the Browns are buckling in the final frame. Cleveland has failed miserably at closing out games, as evidenced by its letdown loss to New England last Sunday. Granted, the Browns were burned by a terrible pass interference call but there’s no denying the 35 total points allowed in the fourth quarter over their last three games – an average of 11.7 points over the last 15 minutes.
Chicago isn’t slamming the door with defense either, but is managing to offset that with a strong sprint to the finish line on offense. The Bears are fourth in the league in fourth-quarter scoring, averaging eight points in the final frame this season. Chicago didn’t let up on Dallas Monday, tacking on another 10 points in the fourth. Da Bears are also fourth in time of possession percentage in the final 15 minutes, holding on to the pigskin 54.20 percent of the quarter. Cleveland’s 44.91 percent is fourth lowest in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 41.5)
Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton vs. Steelers’ stigma and primetime jitters
If Andy Dalton is going to get his team back to the playoffs, where they could be a very dangerous Super Bowl sleeper, he’s going to have to overcome two things that have plagued is short career in Cincinnati: the Steelers defense and the primetime spot light.
According to Yahoo!Sports, Dalton has been well below his bar versus Pittsburgh. His 53 percent completions and 67.8 passer rating in five games against the Steelers fall short of his career tallies of 60.8 percent and 85.1. Add to that a 2-3 SU record in primetime games – Cincinnati is 3-11 SU all-time on Sunday Night Football – and Dalton could be walking into a perfect storm in Pittsburgh Sunday night.
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6, 48)
Ravens’ LB Elvis Dumervil vs. Lions’ turnover troubles
This mismatch could swing to either side, depending on the ankle of Dumervil, who sat out last week’s thriller against Minnesota. Baltimore’s pass rush has been toothless without their newest addition to the linebacking corps. It failed to record a single sack against the Vikings, allowing Matt Cassel to throw for 265 yards and two TDs Sunday, and has just three sacks total in the past three games. Dumervil, who leads the team with 9.5 sacks, is questionable but holding out hope for a return in Week 15.
Without their top sack master, the Ravens may not be able to get to Lions QB Matt Stafford. Stafford has been at the center of Detroit’s three-game losing skid, throwing six interceptions during that skid. He had a clean sheet in last Sunday’s snow ball with the Eagles, but only threw the ball 25 times – his fewest attempts all season – and didn’t face any pass rush in that blizzard. If Dumervil is ready to go, that pressure could force more mistakes from Stafford.
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NFL Betting Week 15 Preview Hot bets and moving odds
Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 15’s NFL action.
All odds current as of noon ET, Dec. 12.
The old saying that you can’t lose your starting spot because of an injury is being tested as we head into Week at the quarterback position.
In Washington, Robert Griffin III has been shut down for the rest of the season after he came back from last year’s ugly knee injury. He won’t admit it, but It’s pretty clear he’s lost a step or two because of the injury and has been a sitting duck behind a rotten offensive line all season. Now, second-year pro Kirk Cousins gets his shot. In turn, Washington moved from a 6-point underdog to a 7-point pup this week at Atlanta.
In Chicago, word has it that Jay Cutler has been cleared to practice and will likely start over Josh McCown if he’s healthy enough to play Sunday at Cleveland. That’s despite the fact that McCown has posted significantly better numbers this season than Chicago’s “franchise quarterback.” For now, all bettors and Bookmakers can do is wait for Chicago’s QB confirmation to set a line for the game.
Same thing with the Packers heading to Dallas. If Aaron Rodgers returns from his broken collarbone, you might see the Packers as 3-point underdogs on the road, but if he isn’t cleared, Dallas may be favored by at least a touchdown.
Other odds on the move
After a short hiatus, bettors are back in love with the Denver Broncos and in turn, the over. Denver was bumped from the top of our Super Bowl futures board by Seattle last week, but firmly regained the favorite spot this week at +236. That’s what happens after Peyton Manning throws four TDs in sub-zero conditions. This week bettors are expecting Denver to be in another shootout with the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. The total opened at 54 for this one but is already up to 57.5. About 69 percent of SportsInteraction.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_4851b_701&aid=" target="_blank">Sports Interaction’s handle sides with the Broncos.
Kansas City is another team bettors are buying into this week. The Chiefs snapped a three-game skid by hammering Washington in Week 14 and opened as 3.5-point favorites on the road for this Sunday’s game in Oakland. Kansas City is now up to -4.5 and almost 96 percent of our bets are coming in on the Chiefs.
This week’s most popular bets
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have saved some face this season with four wins in their last five games, but most bettors don’t give them much of a shot this week when they host San Francisco. The 49ers, who have won three straight, are seeing 93 percent of our action.
Meanwhile, almost 95 percent of our bettors are looking for the Seattle Seahawks to bounce back from last week’s loss to the 49ers. The Seahawks visit the Giants as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday.
And finally, with Adrian Peterson limping, nobody wants any part of the Minnesota Vikings this week. About 94 percent of our action is coming in on Nick Foles and the visiting Philadelphia Eagles.
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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo
NFL
6pts Teaser
Oakland
Detroit
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NFL Prop Shop Week 15's Best Player Prop Bets
Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 15.
Most passing yards
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
Tom Brady was held to only 116 passing yards in the first meeting between these two teams this season, and while we can expect him to improve on that number here, I'm not convinced that he'll outgun Ryan Tannehill.
The Dolphins second-year quarterback has thrown for at least 200 yards in six consecutive games, and the majority of his best performances have come at home this season - most recently racking up 310 passing yards against the Panthers in Week 12.
The Patriots defense has regressed lately, allowing well north of 12 yards per pass play over their last three games. This isn't an ideal matchup for them to 'get right'.
Take: Tannehill
Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Matt McGloin (Oakland Raiders)
The Chiefs offense has been rolling along lately, but I won't be surprised if they face some resistance in the Black Hole on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City scored a whopping 45 points in last week's win over the Redskins, but QB Alex Smith threw for only 137 yards. This is still a run-first team, and that gameplan isn't likely to change against a Raiders defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per rush over its last three games.
Raiders QB Matt McGloin has thrown for 260, 255, and 245 yards in his last three games. As strong as the Chiefs 'D' has been for most of the season, it has struggled recently, allowing 14.4 yards per pass play over the last three games.
Take: McGloin
Most rushing yards
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Frank Gore is coming off one of his best performances of the season, rushing for 110 yards on 17 carries last Sunday against Seattle. Given the fact that he had topped out at 48 rushing yards over his previous three games, I'm not expecting a repeat effort here.
Note that Gore has been held to 71 yards or less on the ground in the 49ers last four road contests.
Bucs RB Bobby Rainey has been a dominant force at home, gaining 290 yards on 52 carries over his last two games in Tampa. The 49ers defense will obviously pose a significant challenge, but I believe Rainey will be up to the task.
Take: Rainey
Most pass receptions
Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)
I simply feel that Hakeem Nicks will be given more opportunities than Doug Baldwin on Sunday, and can't ignore the plus-money return being offered.
Baldwin had only four pass targets and three catches in last Sunday's game in San Francisco. He's had more than five catches in a game on only two occasions this season. This week, I'm expecting the Seahawks to show a stronger commitment to the run.
Nicks burst back onto the scene for the Giants last Sunday, catching five passes for 135 yards. He's been fairly consistent this year, hauling in at least four catches in eight of the 12 games he's appeared in.
Take: Nicks
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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves
It's hard to believe, but we are in Week 15 of the NFL season. A couple of quarterback changes have nabbed headlines this week and have predictably had a major impact on lines.
We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where the lines could close come kickoff:
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons - Open: -4.5, Move: -7
Things couldn't have gone much worse for these two NFC teams. The Washington Redskins have turned to backup QB Kirk Cousins and sharp bettors backed the home fave as soon as lines were opened.
"Less than an hour after we opened our NFL lines, we got sharp bet on Atlanta so moved to -5.5," Perry tells Covers. "Monday afternoon, we got another wiseguy play on the Falcons so moved to -6. On Tuesday, another sharp play on Atlanta -6, caused us to move to current number of 7. Can see why the sharpies like Atlanta, as the Redskins are an absolute mess right now and the Mike Shanahan relationship with RGIII is something out of a bad soap opera."
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns - Open: -2, Move: +1
The Bears are another team with some changes under center in Week 15. Despite playing incredibly well, Josh McCown will be holding the clipboard as Jay Cutler returns to run Marc Trestman's offense.
"On Wednesday, we got sharp play on Chicago +2 so moved to Browns -1," Perry says. "Then on Thursday, when it was announced that Cutler would start, the line moved two points to Bears -1. Seventy-nine percent of cash is backing Chicago."
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins - Open: +3, Move: +1
While the Patriots can clinch the AFC East crown with a victory in Miami, there still remains questions about just how good they actually are. Add to that the fact that TE Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the season and sharps have come in to back the home Dolphins.
"They (Patriots) have won a couple of close, controversial games, and now are without Gronk," Perry said. "On Wednesday afternoon, we got sharp play on the Fins +3, so moved to Pats -2. Thursday another sharp play game on Miami, so moved to current number of NE -1. Sixty percent of cash is on the Patriots."
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English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet
League leaders Arsenal were shellacked 6-3 to Manchester City and the gap at the top of the table has shrunk. Sunday's fixture list is highlighted by a pair of clubs that will look to move closer to the Gunners as seventh-placed Tottenham host fifth-placed Liverpool.
We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's hottest fixtures.
Norwich v Swansea (+180, +230, +175)
Why bet Norwich: With the way they have played, it's hard to believe that a win versus Swansea could put the Canaries in the top 10 (depending on Aston Villa's result). The side has been playing reasonably well and is coming off a very good 2-0 away-victory over West Brom.
Key players out/doubtful: Elliott Bennett, Robert Snodgrass, Alexander Tettey, Anthony Pilkington
Why bet Swansea: With seven points in their last four matches, we are beginning to see the Swans play up to the standard we've expected the past couple of seasons. They currently sit 10th in the table but are the top club in terms of possession. The Swans hold the ball at a fantastic rate of 59.7 percent.
Key players out/doubtful: Angel Rangel, Leon Britton, Álvaro
2012-13 fixture result: Norwich 2, Swansea 2
Key betting note: Swansea and Norwich have played over the 2.5 goal total in their last five meetings (all competitions).
Aston Villa v Manchester United (+375, +275, -120)
Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains were playing well, but suffered an embarrassing 2-0 loss to Fulham at Craven Cottage last time out. The side has been erratic from the outset, but still sit just three points behind Sunday's opponent. History is certainly not on their side, however, as Villa has won just once in the last 35 league matches with the Red Devils.
Key players out/doubtful: Fabian Delph, Charles N'Zogbia, Jores Okore
Why bet Manchester United: Wayne Rooney is back after a suspension, but Robin Van Persie will miss about one month with a thigh injury. Rooney has excelled playing in the slot behind the striker, but will more than likely lead the line for United here. Shinji Kagawa could feature in the No. 10 role, but if United is to collect three points, it will be Rooney who is key.
Key players out/doubtful: Robin van Persie, Michael Carrick, Darren Fletcher
2012-13 fixture result: Aston Villa 2, Manchester United 3
Key betting note: United have scored at least two goals in its last four Premier League matches away from Old Trafford.
Where the action is: "The pressure on David Moyes is showing, and he finds himself having to defend all sorts of criticism, but this is the job he took, and this is the reality of a big club like Man United’s expectations. At the prices, its hard to see how Man United are odds on faves, however, many would look to the adage that United have only ever lost 3 games in a row in the prem 3 times, and not since 2001, so most are taking the view that backing Unitedd is worthy given that stat. Action is largely two-way, with Villa seeing some good support at +375, but United is seeing more than six times that at -120. Rooney leads the First Goalscorer market at +350, and To Score Anytime at +105, with Christian Benteke priced at +600 and +188 respectively. Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals sees mostly over action at -118."
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool (+145, +250, +200)
Why bet Tottenham: Spurs are back in decent form after posting back-to-back losses to Newcastle and Manchester City. They've drawn one and won twice in their last three matches and this matchup versus the Reds at White Hart Lane could tell us just what this Spurs team is all about. They seemingly have Liverpool's number at the Lane recently, posting six victories in seven matches on home turf.
Key players out/doubtful: Jan Vertonghen, Younes Kaboul, Emmanuel Adebayor
Why be Liverpool: After Man City, nobody scores more than the Reds. They've won their last two games by a combined scoreline of 9-2 and superstar Luis Suárez is playing some of the best football on the planet. The Uruguayan has 15 goals in just 10 Premier League appearances this season and each goal seems to be of the highest quality. The Reds will be well rested with no European football this season and despite Tottenham's success versus the Reds at White Hart Lane, Spurs are not very good at home this season. They have just 11 points from seven home games on the campaign.
Key players out/doubtful: José Enrique, Steven Gerrard, Daniel Sturridge
2012-13 fixture result: Tottenham 2, Liverpool 1
Key betting note: 17 of Liverpool's previous 20 away matches have gone over the 2.5 goal total.
Where the action is: "The day's marquee game sees a Spurs side who were struggling somewhat a few weeks ago, but have since had a good draw against Man United and wins at both Fulham and Sunderland to put them back in the race for the top 4. Action is pretty split down the middle for either side to win, with bits and pieces on the Draw. Goalscorer markets are firmly siding with Suarez to continue his amazing 15 goal tally from only 10 Premier League games, although Liverpool are underdogs for the match, Suarez is leading the betting to be First Goalscorer at +450 and To Score Anytime at 13/10. For Spurs, with his recent Hat Trick, Roberto Soldado also sees action at +500 First and +150 Anytime."
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Mark Lawrence NFL
4* Pittsburgh
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Indian Cowboy
7-Unit Play. #305. Take Washington Redskins +7 over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 1pm est).
3-Unit Play. #316. Take Cleveland Browns +1.5 over Chicago Bears (Sunday @ 1pm est).
3-Unit Play. #334. Take Detroit Lions -6 over Baltimore Ravens (Monday @ 8:40pm est).
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IveyWalters
Best Bet for Sunday
3% Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-120)
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NFL Weather Report Sunday's Forecasts
Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:
*** Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+6.5, 41.5)
There will be a 25 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-30s.
*** Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 44)
There is a 47 percent chance of snow in the forecast with temperatures in the mid-20s. Wind will blow toward the NE endzone at 16 mph.
*** Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 43)
There is an 89 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 11 mph.
*** New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 25 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.
*** San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5, 41)
Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 52 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.
*** Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (41.5, 4.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.
*** New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-11, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 7 mph.
*** Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with partly cloudy skies.
*** Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-20s with a 22 percent chance of snow. Wind will whip across the field at 13 mph.
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