12-15-13

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Andre Gomes | NBA Total
pick
806 DET / 805 POR Over 209.5 Bookmaker.comAnalysis:

NBA - 805 Portland Trail Blazers @ 806 Detroit Pistons

Play #4

This will be a fun game to watch between two teams with completely different styles but with the matchup favoring both offenses.

The Blazers are playing an incredible fluid offensive basketball right now. They are the best 3pts shooting team in the league w/ 41.9%, and last night they torched the 76ers w/ 21-37 3pts & 41 assists - that's what happened when the Blazers is playing against poor perimeter defensive teams and guess what… the Pistons are a terrible perimeter defensive team: ranked #26 defending 3pts% w/ 37.8%. This isn't a surprise at all if we take in account that their frontcourt of Smith + Monroe + Drummond is so big and slow to rotate, so their opponents are torching them from the outside.

However, on the other side, the Pistons huge frontcourt will just pound the Blazers poor interior defense that is ranked #26 allowing 45.8 points in the paint per game. The 76ers scored 52 pts paint last night and I expect DET to score +50 pts paint as well today.

In the first h2h game of this series, I went w/ OVER for an easy winner as the game ended w/ 212 points w/ DET scoring 60 points in the paint & POR hitting 11 treys. I expect a similar outcome for today and therefore I'm taking the Over in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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Andre Gomes | NBA Total
pick
802 SAC / 801 HOU Over 213.5 Bookmaker.comAnalysis:
NBA - 801 Houston Rockets @ 802 Sacramento Kings

Play #1
Playing the OVER with the Kings has been one of my favorite plays as of late and for today we have another good matchup that ultimately will lead to a shootout contest.

The Kings' perimeter defense has been awful for quite some time since rookie Ben McLemore and Derrick Williams were promoted to the starting lineup, then Isaiah Thomas replaced Vasquez as the full time PG, and finally we have now Rudy Gay as their starting SF. We are talking about a nice collection of bad individual defensive players so the team's outcome couldn't be any different.

I had a play w/ Phoenix (-6) in their last game as I expected Bledsoe and Dragic to completely destroy the Kings bad defense and indeed that happened:

Eric Bledsoe, 11-16 FG, 4-4 FT, 28 points & 8 assists

Goran Dragic, 10-14 FG, 5-7 FT, 29 points & 3 assists

The Suns scored 20 fast break points, they were efficient from the outside w/ 12-24 3pts and they also scored efficiently down low w/ 48 points in the paint! The Rockets will offer a similar matchup as they have Harden/Lin to attack them off the dribble, they are a good 3pts shooting team and obviously they are one of the best transition teams in the league as well so I don't the Kings defense will be able to slow down the Rockets offense.

On the other side, the Kings have now a pretty decent offensive team w/ Isaiah Thomas running the show. They are attacking the rim as well and I didn't like the way the Rockets defended the rim in their last game @GSW - they allowed GSW to score 66 points while allowing 27-38 FG in that area!

I expect this contest to be a run and gun game with both offenses having the edge vs. defense.

NOTE: I recommend to play the OVER @ max 215 points line

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 213.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For College Basketball

3-Unit Play. #823. Take Western Michigan +15 over Missouri (Sunday @ 7pm est).

Western Michigan led by Steven Hawkins is a sound team. They are 6-3 straight up and have done well on bounce-backs this year such as beating Oakland by 11 coming off a loss, beating Tennessee State by 11 coming off a loss and now they come off their worst loss of the year in a couple ways scoring just 35 points to a Northwestern team that can drag you into their style of half court play. This team will likely bounce-back in a positive and definitely offensively today. They have face a solid Missouri team who is 9-0 but who comes off a big win against UCLA and in for a let down today. Missouri has played a series of teams in the 250 range and they have not blown them out necessarily winning in the 10-15 range and they face a WMU team who I have as a top 200 team. Taking into account of Whittington and Brown, you have a pair of seniors that will allow Western Michigan, coming off a loss and a 35 point performance to be a top 150 possibly for this one contest. With WMU off a loss, a poor loss at that, getting up to play Missouri and with Missouri coming off a big win against UCLA with possibly sleep walking on a Sunday evening here against WMU - and a good public fade on Sunday Night, WMU is the classic selection that fits into our mold this evening.

Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball

3-Unit Play. #810. Take Denver Nuggets -6 over New Orleans Pelicans (Sunday @ 8:05pm est).

This line will probably stay steady. The Nuggets have found a good coach and they will eventually stabilize going forward with the new system that it's in place. Though it is unfortunate as I'm a big George Karl fan. It seems Coach of the Year's don't mean anything because it is conducive to getting fired these days such as Karl, or Del Negro when he was the Clippers. The Nuggets lost by 24 to this team last year and some of these players remember that loss. It was a road loss and it was unfortunate as it was a blowout. Now, the Nuggets face them again at home as they come off a surprising 10 point loss to Utah a game in which they were favored by 10.5 points. With a 20.5 turnaround like that, my models normally expect an above .500 team to rebound in a positive way and -6 is not that bad of a line to lay. I have the Nuggets bouncing back for the win by 9 this evening. With New Orleans coming off a nice win against Phoenix, I can see them having a bit of a let down though note that they have done very well on the road lately. New Orleans is 4-5 on the road overall, 1-5-1 ATS when facing a team with a straight up winning record and the Nuggets to their credit are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 contests coming off an ATS loss. I like Denver for the bounce-back today after the surprising Utah loss to return motivated and focused.

Indian Cowboy's Picks For NHL Hockey

3-Unit Play. #51. Take Under 5.5 Philadelphia vs. Washington (Sunday @ 3pm est).

The last time these two teams met, Philadelphia was unfortunately routed 7-0. I'm sure that sits heavy on this team as they face Washington this afternoon. The last time they gave up 7 goals was against Chicago in which they bounced-back the next contest winning 2-1 against Montreal. This is a revenge game and a defensive bounce-back for this team coming into today. Washington also comes off a 2-3 loss to Florida in overtime and will look to step up more focused on the ice as well. With most of the public on Washington, a decent fade here with Philadelphia being an active dog (the basketball theory and football active dog theory that I have does not work the same way for hockey - its a bit of an exception). The Under is 9-3 for the Flyers when they face a team with a winning record and the under is 4-1 for the Capitals when they face a team with a losing record (possibly because other teams get up to play Washington and so are more sound defensively). Look for this game to be competitive from start to finish with it likely going under the 5.5 total.

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Dr Bob
Orlando
portland

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SBP Original NBA 12/15

811. Golden State Warriors -1

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LA Syndicate

Adds - NBA Nuggets

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Where the action is: Sharps back Steelers

With the NFL season hitting it's home stretch, books have to look at the fact that some teams are already gearing up for the playoffs, while others are making a final push just to get in. And for AFC North rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers, that just happens to be the case when they meet Sunday night.

Covers talked to Mike Perry from Sportsbook.ag about all the action coming in for Sunday night's matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: +3, Move: +2.5

The Bengals need to keep winning if they hope to grab one of the two byes to the divisional round of the playoffs. While the Steelers are still desperate just to get back into the postseason picture, no matter how slim their chances. Sportsbook.ag opened with the Steelers +3, but that number saw plenty of sharp action, Perry told Covers.

"This is a much more important game for the Steelers than Bengals, as they are fighting for their playoff lives," Perry said. "Friday afternoon got sharp play on the dog, so we moved to Bengals -2.5."

The action has been pretty even on both sides since then, Perry said, with 57 percent of the money coming in on the home side Steelers. The total currently sits a 43.5.

Bengals running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis and linebacker James Harrison are both battling an illness, but are listed as probable to play.

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Tale of the tape: Bengals at Steelers
By MONIQUE VÁG

The Steelers are paying the price for starting the season 0-4. After their bye week, they went on to win five of their last nine, but it is way too late. The Bengals look to improve on their 9-4 record.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Steelers offense is 19th overall in points scored with an average of 22.4. They are ranked seventh overall in passing yards averaging 266.8 a game and fourth overall in receptions of 20 or more yards (54). The Steelers have struggled scoring touchdowns and rank 22nd with 31 total - five rushing touchdowns (tied for 30th) and 24 receiving (tied for 9th). Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 3,724 yards with a 24-to-10 TD to INT ratio. Even though the Steelers don't have much of a shot at making the playoffs, Roethlisbeger has still connected to Cotchery for nine touchdowns and Antonio Brown for 90 catches for 1,240 yards and seven touchdowns.

The Bengals are averaging 25.7 points per game and are 10th in the league in total yards with 368.8. The Bengals rank 12th in passing yards with 252.9 and 15th in rushing yards with 115.8. Of the Bengals 41 touchdowns, 11 are rushing touchdowns and 25 are receiving. Although these stats seem one sided, the Bengals possess one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL with their ability to run the ball or lean on the pass. A.J. Green is tied for first with eight receptions of 40 or more yards. At the quarterback position, Andy Dalton has a 25-to-16 TD to INT ratio.

Edge: Cincinnati Bengals

Defense

The Steelers have been a team for many years that pride themselves on an exceptional defense, however in 2013 this has not been the case. Last year, the Steelers were first overall in yards per game giving up a measly 275.8. They were first against the pass and second against the rush. In 2013, the Steelers have slipped drastically, ranked 22nd against the rush allowing 120.2 yards per game and seventh against the pass, giving up 222.4 yards per game. The Steelers defense have struggled to force takeaways, they are second-last in the AFC in two categories, interceptions and sacks.

The Bengals defense has allowed the sixth-fewest points per game with 18.8. They have been great at stopping the pass (ranked ninth) and fifth in stopping the rush. The Bengals defense has been exceptionally good at preventing third and fourth down completions with opponents only completing 36% of their third down attempts (68/191) and 30 percent of fourth down attempts (3/10). Linebacker Vontaze Burfict is one of the best tacklers in the league ranking first in the NFL with 139 combined tackles. Alongside Burfict, defensive end Carlos Dunlap has been a solid pass rusher with seven sacks and is tied for second overall with four forced fumbles.

Edge: Cincinnati Bengals

Special Teams

Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham is having an excellent year making 24/26 field goals. He is 7/7 for field goals between 20-29 yards and 7/7 for field goals between 40-49 yards. The Steelers have been good on punt returns ranking 11th overall in average yards returned (10.8). Felix Jones has returned 18 kicks for 427 yards. On the punt return, Antonio Brown has 269 yards, including a long of 50 yards. He has three returns of 40 or more yards on the year.

On the kick return, Brandon Tate has 27 returns for 701 yards. He has two returns of 40 or more yards and one fumble on the year. On the punt return, Tate has 29 returns for 274 yards with one return of 40 or more yards. Mike Nugent has made 16-of-20 field goals making 3/4 from 50 or more yards.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Notable Quotable

“We want to make them one-dimensional. They can sometimes catch defenses off guard because they have a north-and-south runner (Green-Ellis) and an edge runner (Bernard) who helps in the pass game, as well." - Cameron Heyward on slowing down the Bengals.

“If you have a number of guys who can help you, we should never have a guy say he's tired. We can sub guys in and out, and guys can be fresh and playing fast.” - Jay Gruden on managing a balanced offense and keeping players fresh.

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Arizona Cardinals -2½ over the Tennessee Titans (Spread Bet) (NFL Football) - Game Starts at 4:25 PM

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Burns MAIN EVENT Steelers

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Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David


Week 14 Recap

Last week’s NFL action had some of the wildest finishes I’ve ever seen and if you bet totals, you saw some really bad losses. Next week, VegasInsider.com will be publishing its annual “Bad Beat” piece and we’ll touch on a couple of these. Those of you who bet the ‘under’ in the Minnesota-Baltimore and New England-Cleveland matchups, we extend our apologies. To those of you who won, nice job!

Bettors saw 90 touchdowns scored on Sunday alone in Week 14, which helped the ‘over’ go 11-5. On the season, the ‘over’ holds a 111-93-2 edge.

Non-Conference Overs

After a 3-1 week, this trend is up to 45-14 (76%) on the season. We have four more matchups (AFC vs. NFC) on tap in Week 15, which includes the Monday battle.

Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit

Systems & Trends

We hope you all took advantage of the last week’s “Total System Play” on the Tennessee-Denver matchup. I’ll be sure to keep you informed if it presents itself in the playoffs. As I mentioned last week, I found this system in a message board and it’s been profitable. Another way I find out information is through emails from VegasInsider.com users. Last week, I received a great angle from a VI user who prefers the moniker Agent-86.

According to his analysis that I’ve verified, any team that has played at home on Thursday this season has watched the ‘over’ go 12-2-1 in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Let’s simplify this for you with last week's examples. On Thanksgiving, the Lions, Cowboys and Ravens all hosted games in Week 13 which means the above trend would call for ‘over’ plays in Week 14. Sure enough, Detroit, Dallas and Baltimore all saw their games go ‘over’ last weekend.

Check out our Thursday Night results page and you'll be able to see which teams played in the mid-week matchup this season.

For Week 15, you would look at the ‘over’ in the Jacksonville-Buffalo matchup since the Jaguars played at home on Thursday in Week 14.

Next week, the situation would call for an ‘over’ in the Denver-Houston game since the Broncos played at home this past Thursday.

As I’ve written before in my TT installments, I do believe all trends usually balance out and it should part of your handicapping not the "Be-all and End-all" of your selections. Even if the ‘under’ cashes the next two weeks, you’re still looking at a season total trend that has produced profits of 75 percent.

If anybody else has anything to share, shoot me an email.

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 4-2 last week, pushing the season numbers to 39-29-1 (67%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Buffalo at Jacksonville: Line opened 44 and dropped to 42
Green Bay at Dallas: Line opened 47 and jumped to 49
Baltimore at Detroit: Line opened 46½ and jumped to 48

Divisional Angles

New England at Miami: The Patriots defeated the Dolphins 27-17 at home on Oct. 27. Including this results, the ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series.

Houston at Indianapolis: The Colts earned a 27-24 road victory over the Texans on Nov. 1 and the combined 51 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42. Prior to this game, the ‘under’ had cashed in the last five encounters between the pair.

Kansas City at Oakland: When these teams meet, low-scoring affairs usually occur. The ‘under’ is on an 8-1-1 run in the last 10 encounters, which includes the Chiefs 24-7 home win over the Raiders on Oct. 13.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Thursday’s primetime schedule concluded this past week as the Chargers defeated the Broncos 27-17. The ‘under’ hit (57) in this contest but the ‘over’ connected at a 67 percent (10-5) clip in the mid-week contest this season. On SNF, the ‘over’ owns an 8-6 mark but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run the last four weeks. MNF saw a high-scoring affair (45-28) last week between the Bears and Cowboys. Overall, the ‘over’ owns a 25-19 (57%) record in primetime games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Bengals and Steelers have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight and six of the last seven meetings. Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh 20-10 at home in a MNF battle in Week 2 and the total closed at 40. For this week’s rematch, the number is hovering between 41 and 42 points. The Bengals have exploded for 83 points in their last two home games but just 34 in their previous two road contests. Pittsburgh has been involved in its fair share of shootouts lately, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four.

Baltimore at Detroit: Detroit’s offense is averaging 31.7 PPG at Ford Field this season, which has helped ‘over’ go 5-1 and that record could easily be 6-0. Baltimore has been a clear-cut ‘under’ (5-2) at home but the ‘over’ is 3-2-1 on the road due to a defense that’s allowed 26.8 PPG in six games. The total has already been steamed from 46½ to 48 points and it will probably get higher by kickoff. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle in this spot, you might see some conservative play-calling since both teams need a win to help their playoff pushes. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between this pair but they haven’t met since 2009.

Fearless Predictions

The bankroll is up to $260 after a 3-1 week, with the teaser failing to connect. Three weeks of regular season action left and looking to finish strong. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Miami 45
Best Under: Chicago-Cleveland 43
Best Team Total: Under Cincinnati 20½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36 New England-Miami
Over 38½ New Orleans-St. Louis
Under 50½ Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

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Alex Smart

NFL-
San Fran-5
Houston/Indy over 45.5
Jacksonville+2
Kansas City-3.5
Arizona/Tennessee over 41.5
Cinci/Pittsburgh over 40.5

CBB-
Villanova-13.5
Chicago State+14
Charleston-10.5
Wright State-1.5
Syracuse-4

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Root: Upset Club. Cleveland, Minnesota, Millionaire Tampa Bay

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Underdog

JACKSONVILLE