12-15-13

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CKO

Confidential Kick-Off

10 SAN FRANCISCO over *Tampa Bay
Late Score Forecast:
SAN FRANCISCO 28 - *Tampa Bay 13
(Sunday, December 15)

10 *MIAMI over New England
Late CKO score forecast:
*MIAMI 30 - New England 23
(Sunday, December 15)

NINE-RATED GAMES:
DENVER (-11½) vs. San Diego [Thursday Night]—Cold? What cold?; Practically Perfect Peyton lays 51 on Tennessee, passing for 397 yards while wearing a glove on his throwing hand...
PITTSBURGH (+2) vs. Cincinnati—Key Steeler RB Le’Veon Bell and TE Heath Miller missed the first
meeting between these two due to injury; Bengals only 2-4-1 vs. the spread on the road.

TOTALS:
UNDER (39; est.) in the New York Jets-Carolina Game—Both teams feature strong defenses, but the Jets will be lucky to even be going forward vs. the Panther front seven...
OVER (51½) in the Philadelphia-Minnesota Game—The Vikes’ banged-up secondary will have a hard time deciphering Chip Kelly’s deceptive offense, with its play-action and excellent TEs; Minnesota has gone “over” 11 of 13 games this season (“over” 4 of 5 at home).

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ALLEN EASTMAN

3-Unit Play Take #323 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
The Eagles should be able to get this road win in Minnesota. The Eagles are feeling good after their big win at home last year in the snow against Detroit. The Vikings lost in the last second at Baltimore. They lost Adrian Peterson to injury. This team has nothing to play for. The Eagles are playing to win their division and won't take this game for granted. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the favorite is 5-2 ATS the last seven times these teams have played.

2-Unit Play.[/COLOR] Take #313 Seattle (-7) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This one should be all the way of the Seahawks. They are coming off a rare loss last week to San Francisco. This team is still in a race for home field advantage and the NO. 1 seed in the NFC> They will need this win. The Giants are a team with nothing to play for. Their season is over. The Giants were blown out last week by the Chargers. They are turning the ball over too much and that will hurt them against a team with a tough defense like Seattle. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games against the NFC. Seattle is 9-2 ATS on the road. Lay the points.

4-Unit Play[/COLOR]. Take #318 Indianapolis (-5.5) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
The Colts are coming off a bad loss at Cincinnati last week. They will bounce back at home. Houston just fired coach Gary Kubiak. This team is ready to quit on the season. They have lost 10 straight games and are just 3-7 ATS in those games. They have not been good enough to beat teams like the Jaguars and the Raiders. Indianapolis has won and covered three of the last four meetings. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings. Andrew Luck and the Colts should have an easy time against this failed Texans team.

7-Unit Play Take #326 Carolina (-11) over New York Jets (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
AND
3-Unit Play Take First Half #326 Carolina (-6) over New York (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This is my NFL Game of the Month.
The Panthers are going to win this one in a blowout. I thought that this spread would be around 14.5. The Panthers had their winning streak snapped last week in New Orleans. They will not be happy and will want to get another big win here on Sunday. The Panthers won their last home game 27-6. They have been a double-digit favorite one other time this year. They were -10 against the Falcons and won 34-10 over Atlanta. The Jets have been a terrible road team this year! They lost their last three road games 19-3, 37-14 and 49-9. They also lost 38-13 on the road earlier this year to Tennessee. Carolina is just too tough for the Jets. I expect the Panthers defense to dominate this game against rookie quarterback Geno Smith. I think that this will be another game where the Jets get blown out by at least three touchdowns and this one should be all Panthers from start to finish.

4-Unit Play Take #327 Kansas City (-4) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This play is from the NFL 411 System.
The Chiefs are one of the best teams in football. They should blow out their rivals this weekend on the road just like they did to the Redskins last week. This series has been dominated by the road team. The visitor is 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games out in Oakland. The Raiders were blown out last week against the Jets. They have lost three straight and they have lost five of their last seven games. This team is really struggling. Kansas City will get the job done. The books have had to move this line in some places so bet it now before it comes off four.

3-Unit Play Take #311 New Orleans (-6) over St. Louis (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
The Saints are the much better team in this game. They won another blowout last week over Carolina. They are ahead in the division and won't want to slip up here. The Saints are not a great road team. But they are playing in a dome this week and that should benefit them. The Rams have been blown out each of the last two weeks. They have lost two of their last three home games. The Rams are just 2-7 ATS against the NFC and the Rams are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 15. New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games in December. Lay the points.

4-Unit Play Take #311 Cincinnati (-2) over Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This play is from the NFL 411 System.
The Steelers lost another heartbreaker last week. That is two straight games that they lost in the final seconds. Those two losses have ruined their season and any hope for the playoffs. The Bengals are going to the postseason. They are a tough team that won in a blowout last week against the Colts. Cincinnati beat the Steelers by 10 points in the first meeting this season. The road team has done well in this series and is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Bengals have much better numbers on defense and Cincinnati's offense is improving. The Bengals have won and covered the spread in three straight and five of their last seven. They are favored for a reason. They will get a hard win over their hated division rival.

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

6-Unit Play Take #313 Seattle (-7) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, December 15)
The New York Giants do one of two things towards the end of an NFL Season. They either A) go on a tear and finish the regular season strong and make the playoffs, or B) get destroyed in their last four or five games. They set the tone for the latter with their atrocious effort last weekend in their double-digit loss to the San Diego Chargers. This Giants squad is going to lay down and die over the last few weeks of the season and that is going to be extremely evident in this match up with the Seahawks. Seattle has a ton to play for as home field advantage is their ticket to the Super Bowl. With a one game lead on the Saints, they will want to do everything they can not to let any games slip through their fingers. The weather is supposedly going to be bad in New York/New Jersey this weekend but that won't hinder Seattle's game plan. Russell Wilson and his supporting cast know how to play in bad weather and they will be just fine moving the ball both on the ground and through the air. Seattle's defense will put the clamps on Eli and his cast as once the Seahawks get up, they will take advantage of the Giants turnovers that we all know are coming. Seattle is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in their last three games in which they outrushed their opponent. I see that happening again this Sunday as the Giants won't be able to move the ball through the air versus the Seahawks solid pass defense. Not only are the 3-0 ATS but they have won those three games by an average of nearly 21 points a game. Take the road team in this one as the Giants are going to give up in front of their home crowd.

3-Unit Play Take #323 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, December 15)
I have absolutely no idea why Vegas continues to give the Eagles short lines? This Philadelphia team is playing great football and they know that the NFC East is theirs for the taking. They will be focused and ready each and every Sunday and they can accidentally win/cover this game. Philly has quietly done everything that Carolina has done over the last month but no one is talking about the Eagles. Philly has won seven of their last nine games S.U. and has won six of those seven wins by at least eight points (including five by at least 11 points). Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Minnesota, and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between the two teams. Take Philly here as they win this game by double figures as the Vikings try to figure out how to move the ball with either Toby Gerhart or an really banged up Adrian Peterson.

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MTI's Two Team Teaser

MTi's 2-team, 6-point teasers

4-Star Tennessee +9, Pittsburgh +8.5

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Championship Football Picks

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs
Championships Pick: over 41 for 3 units

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
Championships Pick: under 41 for 3 units

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Championships Pick: under 50 for 3 units

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Cooper Wins

Regular plays

Game #1: New England @ Miami

Miami -2

Game #2: Kansas City @ Oakland

Kansas City -5

Game #3: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh +3

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

CINCINNATI (331) AT PITTSBURGH (332)
Latest Line: Pittsburgh +2.0; Total: 41.5

The red-hot Bengals seek their fourth straight win when they visit a rival Steelers team with two straight painful defeats. Cincinnati has outscored its past three opponents 100 to 58, but is just 2-4-1 ATS on the road this year with a mere 19.3 PPG. After losing by two points to rival Baltimore on Thanksgiving, Pittsburgh allowed 10 points in the final 3:02 of a 34-28 home loss to the Dolphins last week, dropping it to 3-3 (SU and ATS) at home. Although Pittsburgh holds a 10-4 edge (SU and ATS) in this series recently, the Bengals have won two straight, 13-10 at Heinz Field last year, and 20-10 at home in Week 2.
FORECASTER: Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 21

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King Creole:
5* Minn/Philly OVER 50.5
3* NO/STL OVER 47
2* AZ/TN OVER 41.5
2* Chi/Cle OVER 43.5

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Fezzik

NFL Total Sun, 12/15/13 - 4:25 PM
double-dime bet ARI / 310 TEN Over 41.5 Bookmaker.com

NFL Side Sun, 12/15/13 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 316 CLE 0.0 (-100) 5dimes vs 315 CHI

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RAS

Wright St -2.5

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Chad Matthews

7-Unit play #327 Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 over the Oakland Raiders (Dec 15 @ 4:05pm ET)
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders clash in a division rivalry game this Sunday in Oakland. The Chiefs finally got back on the winning track destroying the Redskins last week 45-10 in the nation's capital. Prior to last weekend's win the Chiefs were on a three game skid losing twice to Denver and once to San Diego. The Raiders are in a downward spiral losing five of their past six games . The Raiders who's only offense comes from the run game has reported that both running backs Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings are both questionable to play this weekend. Even if these two running backs are to play they are still playing banged up and against a Chiefs defense that is ranked 16th in the league in run defense. The Chiefs should be ranked lower in this category but during their three-game skid their running defense was exposed dropping them to 16th respectively. The Chiefs still have their sights on the Broncos despite losing to them twice this season to try to capture the AFC crown and expect them to be on their A game this weekend against a weaker Oakland team. The Chiefs need a win this weekend or a Miami loss to claim playoff territory but the Chiefs have their minds set on a bigger goal in trying to capture the AFC and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs and I don't see Oakland getting in their way at all. The Raiders are 0-5 against teams with winning records this season and the Chiefs are 8-2 against the spread their last eight games played in Oakland. Take the Chiefs at -4.5 here

2-Unit play #307 San Francisco 49ers -5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Dec 15 @ 1pm ET)
The San Francisco 49ers head to Tampa Bay to take on the streaking Buccaneers. The 49ers are coming off of a gruesome win at home last week against Seattle in a very well fought contest, now they have to travel across states to Florida to take on the Buccaneers who have now won four of their past five games. The only loss the Bucs have suffered came to the Carolina Panthers as they got shut down 27-6. The 49ers defensively are well rounded and Tampa Bay has shown this season they do not play well against defensive minded teams. The 49ers are ranked 4th in defending the run and ranked 10th in the league in protecting the pass. The 49ers defense shows up again this weekend and puts a halt to this lower than average Bucs team. Take the 49ers at -5 here.

3-Unit play #323 Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 over the Minnesota Vikings (Dec 15 @ 1pm ET)
The soaring Philadelphia Eagles and the injured plaque Minnesota Vikings meet up this Sunday at the Metrodome in Minneapolis. The Eagles have been the story of the NFC East this season storming out of nowhere to become the pack-leader of their division. The Eagles started off this season with all kinds of drama at the quarterback position as they were bogged down by Michael Vick, and as usual Vick got injured and played poor as well. Now starting Eagles quarterback Nick Foles has stepped in big as the Eagles have won their past five straight games and I do not see the injured Vikings team stopping them. Eagles quarterback Nick Foles, who leads the NFL with a 120.0 passer rating should be able to go deep whenever he wants against this Vikings defense that have given up the most deep passes in the league this season. The Vikings could be without all-star running back Adrian Peterson as he went out with injury last weekend against the Ravens. Both of these teams are playing in different directions with the Eagles being the much hotter team and with the blow to the Vikings run game without Peterson out there I expect the Eagles to roll em up here this weekend at the Metrodome. Take the Eagles at -4.5 here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

NCAA Football
62 - 46 - 2 (+14.49u) 57.4%

Next Play Bowls

NFL Football
42 - 25 - 3 (+13.00u) 62.7%

Redskins +6.0 Even Money (A)
Under Dolphins 45.5 -105 (A)
Titans +3.0 -115 (A)

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RAS

San Diego -1

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Power play wins

SF Niners

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Bill Hilton- Gameday

3-Dallas
2-Philly
2-Houston

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NCAAB

Sunday, December 15

Syracuse won last eight games with St John's, with five of last six wins by 19+ points; Orange also played Big East tourney here every March, so this familiar site in first non-league meeting. First true away game for Syracuse, which won three games on Maui by 8-11-7 points. St John's is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 11 to Wisconsin, by 7 to Penn State.

Wright State won last three games with Miami by 8-2-15 points; they're 0-6 on road, losing last two games to teams outside top 250. Teams are making 49.1% behind arc vs Miami this year, best % vs any team in US. Miami is 1-5 but has three top 60 losses; #182 Raiders are lowest-rated team they've played this year. Horizon road favorites are 2-3 vs spread; MAC home underdogs are 6-5.

LaSalle beat Villanova 77-74 in OT LY after being down 11 in 2nd half, ending decade+-long losing series skid; Explorers lost last four visits here by 7-18-13-41 points. LaSalle is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-8-7 points- they're making 29.5% behind arc. 9-0 Villanova is 6-0 vs teams outside top 100, with all six wins by 15+- they're forcing turnovers 23% of time, #16 in country.

UCSB beat San Diego by 4-18 points last two years, holding Toreros to 39 points LY; Gauchos are 3-3 vs D-I teams despite having #1 eFG% in US, making 43.9% (#7) behind arc- they're 1-2 on road, winning by 21 at UNLV, losing at Colorado by 8, UCLA by 13. USD lost its two top 100 games by total of 8 points, losing to New Mexico by 7, Aztecs by 1.

Pepperdine forced 20 turnovers (+6) in 58-56 OT win vs Washington St LY, after losing by 11 to Coogs year before; Waves are 3-0 in true road games, winning by 3-17-6 points- they're 2-2 vs teams in top 150, with losses by 3-8 points to only top 100 foes. Wazzu lost four of its last six games, beating local Idaho by point in last game eight days ago, in game they trailed by 10 with 13:49 left.

Northeastern is 2-7 playing #25 schedule in US, losing last five in a row since upsetting Georgetown on neutral floor; six of Huskies' losses are by 9 or less points. Fairfield lost last eight games, losing by 4-11 in first two MAAC tilts- they're turning ball over 21.8% of time, making 41.9% inside arc. MAAC underdogs are 20-18 vs spread, 4-2 at home. CAA road favorites are 3-0.

Marist is 0-9 under new coach, with 83-74 loss at Iona only one of four road losses by less than 16 points; Red Foxes are making 25.5% on arc (11th-worst in US), 39.8% inside arc (13th-worst). Charleston won by 10 at Marist LY; this is first D-I game in two weeks for Cougars, who are 4-4 vs D-I teams, with last three wins all by 13+ points. Favorites from Southern Conference are 1-4 vs spread at home.

7-2 Manhattan is 15-5 in last 20 games dating back to LY, winning last three games while allowing 61.3 ppg; Jaspers are 5-0 on road- they force turnovers 20.3% of time. NC-Wilmington won last two games, is 4-5 vs D-I teams, despite making just 25.2% from arc (6th-worst in US)- they won three of four home games, with only home loss to SF Austin 60-55.

First game in 11 days for Morehead State, which turns ball over 24.3% of time, makes just 29.9% behind arc, but is 6-4 vs D-I teams, probably because they force TOs 22% of time. Eagles are 2-0 at home, defeating Marshall/Wright State. Falcons are 0-3 on road, but they were all top 50 opponents; BG is shooting 25.3% behind arc, 8th-worst %age in USA.

First game in 8 days for 6-2 Drexel squad that won consecutive games in triple OT couple weeks ago; Dragons won by 8 at Illinois State, by 11 at Rutgers after losing first true road game at UCLA by 5, but Lee's injury made them thinner. Davidson is 4-6 vs #32 schedule; they lost by 11 at poor Niagara team Wednesday.Wildcats have 7th-worst eFG% defense in country- teams are making 40.3% from arc against them.

Wyoming is 7-2, losing by 5 at Colorado, 15 at Ohio State in true away games; home side won Cowboys' last 11 games with Denver. Wyoming lost its last five visits here- they're making 41.4% from arc this season. Denver had terrific win at Colorado State after splitting pair of OT tilts before that. Pioneers are 1-1 at home, losing to Stanford, winning in OT over Southern.

UC-Irvine (-8) made 11-19 from arc, hammered Eastern Washington two weeks ago, 81-58 (was 43-22 at half); Anteaters lost to Cal/Pepperdine in last two games- they're 2-2 on road with win at Washington. EWU is 3-3 vs D-I teams, beating Seattle by 8 in only D-I home game; Eagles are making 39.5% from arc, just 62.9% from line. Big Sky home dogs: 1-5.

Montana State waxed Portland 83-64 LY, its only win against D-I team in 1-8 start; Bobcats were 27-39 on foul line in that game- they're 1-2 on road this year, losing by 5 at Riverside, 25 at Wyoming, with upset win at Central Michigan. Pilots are 5-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200; all five wins were by 14+- they won last three games, by 17-29-16 points.

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CapperAdvantage

CharlotteSports
Browns +1
Redskins/Falcons Over 50
Texans +4.5
Bills -3
Dolphins ML

Big E
Redskins/Falcons Over 50

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA Basketball 42-33-1 (+0.95u)
Under Suns 210.5 -110 (A)

NCAA Basketball 23-27-3 (-4.96u)
#829 Marist +10.5 -110 (A)

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DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play #813 Take Syracuse Orange -4 over St. Johns Red Storm (12 pm Fox Sports 1) This is not a conference match-up anymore but Syracuse loves playing at the Garden and they will be up for this game. St. Johns does not have the shooters to fare well against the Syracuse 2-3 Zone. Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. St. Johns is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take this short number with the much better team on Sunday. I see this game being close for 17 minutes before the Orange start to pull away late in the first half.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolkosky Milan

NFL: 51-43-4 (+270 Units)

1-2 last Sunday

20* NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +2½
20* PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5
20* ST LOUIS RAMS +7
20* SAINTS / RAMS OVER 47
20* 49ERS / BUCCANEERS UNDER 41½
20* CARDINALS / TITANS OVER 41½