ALLEN EASTMAN
4-Unit Play. Take #256 Stanford (-5.5) over Michigan State (5 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 1) -
Rose Bowl
I really like this Stanford team. They are one of the best five teams in college football. I think
that they will power through that Michigan State defense. Michigan State was just happy to win
the Big Ten championship game and deny Ohio State a shot at the national championship. That
really made their season. Stanford has dominated most of its opponents this year. They beat
Arizona State by 24 in the Pac-12 Championship. They also beat Notre Dame, Oregon, Oregon
State and UCLA by six points or more. They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and this
Stanford team has been one of the best bets in college football over the last four years. The
Cardinal is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 games and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 nonconference
games. Stanford is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games and Michigan State is 0-4 ATS against
teams from the Pac-12
NCAA Football Game Picks
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)Game 247-248: Nebraska vs. Georgia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 95.486; Georgia 97.091
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 1 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Georgia by 9 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+9 1/2); OverGame 249-250: UNLV vs. North Texas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 77.731; North Texas 87.857
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 10; 50
Vegas Line: North Texas by 6 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-6 1/2); UnderGame 251-252: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 102.684; South Carolina 110.728
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 8; 57
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1; 51
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+1); OverGame 253-254: Iowa vs. LSU (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 92.357; LSU 108.656
Dunkel Line: LSU by 16 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: LSU by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-7); UnderGame 255-256: Stanford vs. Michigan State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 111.121; Michigan State 110.710
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Stanford by 5; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+5); OverGame 257-258: Central Florida vs. Baylor (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 90.384; Baylor 109.752
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 19 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Baylor by 16 1/2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-16 1/2); Under
Marc Lawrence
10* Bowl GOY Wisconsin
Dave Essler
CFB Side Wed, 01/01/14 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 253 Iowa
EZWINNERS
5* Stanford -6
3* Baylor -16.5
NCAAF Bowl Previews
Insiderangles
Gator Bowl – Nebraska vs. Georgia (-9) - This is a tricky matchup with both teams starting backup quarterbacks, Nebraska Coach Bo Pelini possibly coaching his final game before getting fired and two defenses that were both sub-par all season. With all of that being said, the Cornhuskers might be an overlay considering neither of these teams should really be favored over the other by this much without a clear quarterback edge in this contest. Yes, it remains to be seen how hard Nebraska plays for Pelini, but the Huskers also may relish this chance to beat an SEC school and gain some revenge for a 45-31 loss to the Bulldogs in the Capital One Bowl last season. Georgia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.
Heart of Dallas Bowl – UNLV vs. North Texas (-6½) - Do not adjust your sets, this seemingly low profile matchup is indeed being played on New Year’s Day, and it figures to be one of the lowest rated New Year’s bowls ever. But back to the events on the field, UNLV had a very nice turnaround after winning just two games last season to finish 7-5 and qualify for this bowl, and the Rebels played a bit of a tougher schedule inside the Mountain West than North Texas, which just finished its first season in Conference USA. UNT has nice defensive numbers statistically, although again the schedule should be brought into question, and that defense will be tested by the accurate UNLV quarterback Caleb Herring, who passed for over 2500 yards and 22 touchdowns vs. just four interceptions. North Texas is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games vs. teams with winning straight up records.
Capital One Bowl – Wisconsin (-1½) vs. South Carolina - Wisconsin was seemingly on its way to a BCS bowl when it inexplicably lost at home to Penn State 31-24 in the regular season finale as a 25-point favorite. South Carolina comes out of the SEC and went 10-2 overall, losing only at Georgia early in the season when the Bulldogs were totally healthy and by two points at Tennessee. The Gamecocks did finish the regular season with five straight wins though while going 4-1 ATS in those games when they could have easily mailed the season in after their second loss, and their top NFL prospect, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, may want to go out with a bang on this national stage. Small bowl underdogs of less than three points coming off of an ATS win (South Carolina) are 27-13-1, 67.5 percent ATS since 2000.
Outback Bowl – Iowa vs. LSU (-7) - This is another SEC vs. Big Ten matchup, except this time the LSU Tigers are probably not too thrilled about being here, not unlike last season when the Tigers lost to Clemson after missing out on a BCS bid. Iowa has some nice momentum after winning its last three games to get to 8-4, with the last two wins coming vs. Michigan at home and vs. Nebraska on the road. If LSU does not come to play, the Hawkeyes could have a surprise in store for the Tigers with the help of an Iowa defense that is ranked seventh in the country in total defense while allowing only 18.8 points per game. Single-digit bowl underdogs of +6 or more coming off of two straight up wins (Iowa) are 53-30, 63.9 percent ATS since 2000.
Rose Bowl – Stanford (-5½) vs. Michigan State - The first BCS Bowl of the season could very well be the second best matchup this year behind only the National Championship Game. Both of these teams have great physical defenses, with Michigan State leading the country in total defense while finishing 12-1 and that defense just shut down an Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship that had not lost a game since Urban Meyer became coach last year. But the biggest takeaway from that game was the development of quarterback Connor Cook, who passed for a career high 304 yards. Cook could very well end up being the key to this contest also. Michigan State is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.
Fiesta Bowl – Central Florida vs. Baylor (-16½) - The second BCS bowl this year features what many feel is the weakest team to qualify for one in UCF, but the Knights could use that as motivation, much like the Louisville Cardinals did when basically in the same situation last season before upsetting Florida. And Central Florida may not have as tough a matchup as the Cardinals had, as Baylor may have led the world in total offense, but the Bears were shown to be vulnerable when running into a good defense in their loss at Oklahoma State, and they were not as impressive in their two games that followed. Central Florida finished the year ranked 19th in the country in total defense. Big 12 bowl favorites (Baylor) are 26-40-3 ATS since 2000 for a 60.6 percent fade.
College Football: Bowl Season Preview
Sportspic
Gator Bowl
Matchup: Nebraska (8-4, 6-6 ATS) vs. Georgia (8-4, 3-8-1 ATS)
Location: Gator Bowl, Everbank Field
Opening Line: Georgia -9
Current Line: Georgia -9
Percentage of Action: 66% Georgia
Key Betting Trends:
Nebraska: Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Nebraska bowl games
Georgia: 25-11 ATS in non-conference road games
Analysis: These two teams meet for the second straight year, but in a different New Year’s Day Florida bowl game. Last season, the Bulldogs covered as -9.5 favorites in a high-scoring affair. That defeat marked the third consecutive bowl loss for the Cornhuskers. Money is going Georgia’s way early on, but oddsmakers are holding tight with the line. This may be Bo Pelini’s swan song, and the Bulldogs have the weapons to make that a reality.
Early Lean: Georgia
Heart of Texas Bowl
Matchup: UNLV (7-5, 8-4 ATS) vs. North Texas (8-4, 9-3 ATS)
Location: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas
Opening Line: North Texas -6.5
Current Line: North Texas -6.5
Percentage of Action: 64% UNLV
Key Betting Trends:
UNLV: 12-4 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons
North Texas: 7-2 ATS as a favorite this season
Analysis: Two teams that haven’t been bowling for a while meet up in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day. The Running Rebels make their first trip to a bowl since the 2000 season. After losing and failing to cover in their first two games, UNLV has covered eight of the last 10 games, including one outright win as a three-point dog. North Texas last reached a bowl game in 2004, and since this is in effect a home game for the Mean Green, it should be noted that five of the team’s six home games went below the total. Early action has UNLV getting the most money, and their success in that area makes them a potential play.
Early Lean: UNLV
Capital One Bowl
Matchup: Wisconsin (9-3, 9-2 ATS) vs. South Carolina (10-2, 6-6 ATS)
Location: Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Opening Line: Wisconsin -2.5
Current Line: Wisconsin -2.5
Percentage of Action: 67% South Carolina
Key Betting Trends:
Wisconsin: 8-1 ATS versus teams averaging 31 points or more over last two seasons
South Carolina: Over is 8-3 in last 11 games as an underdog
Analysis: Last season, the Badgers failed to cover as four-point underdogs in their bowl matchup, but have been one of the best ATS teams this season. The Gamecocks narrowly missed covering their bowl game last year, falling short by a half-point. This year, they began 2-6 ATS, then finished by covering four of the last five games. Despite the fact that Wisconsin has the better handicapping numbers, South Carolina is getting much of the early money as the dog. That impact has yet to be felt with the line remaining where it started. The Badgers have failed to cover in their last two outings, and given the Gamecocks late-season surge in this category, this dog might bark.
Early Lean: South Carolina
Outback Bowl
Matchup: Iowa (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. LSU (9-3, 5-6 ATS)
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Opening Line: LSU -7
Current Line: LSU -7
Percentage of Action: 69% LSU
Key Betting Trends:
Iowa: 21-8 ATS after allowing 125 rushing yards or less in three straight games
LSU: 4-10 ATS as a favorite of five or more last 14 games
Analysis: The Hawkeyes return to bowl action after missing out last year. Two years ago, they were two-touchdown dogs, and still failed to cover. The Tigers lost outright as a six-point favorite in their bowl game last year. The early push has the public favoring LSU, but no line movement has taken place yet. Given the Tigers’ struggles as a favorite, taking the points is an inviting option.
Early Lean: Iowa
Rose Bowl
Matchup: Michigan State (12-1, 8-4 ATS) vs. Stanford (11-2, 7-6 ATS)
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Opening Line: Stanford -3.5
Current Line: Stanford -3.5
Percentage of Action: 51% Michigan State
Key Betting Trends:
Michigan State: 9-1-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog
Stanford: Under is 7-1 in last eight games
Analysis: Two teams with underdog victories in their respective conference championships meet up. Michigan State is 11-2 ATS after conference win of 10 or more the last three seasons. Last year, the Spartans were two-point dogs in their bowl effort and won by a single point. The Cardinal return to the Rose Bowl and look to repeat last year’s result, when they covered as four-point chalk. Early action has seen both sides get virtually the same amount of money, with a microscopic edge to Michigan State. Taking the points might be the way to go here
Early Lean: Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl
Matchup: Central Florida (11-1, 7-5 ATS) vs. Baylor (11-1, 9-3 ATS)
Location: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, Arizona
Opening Line: Baylor -16.5
Current Line: Baylor -16.5
Percentage of Action: 68% Baylor
Key Betting Trends:
Central Florida: 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season
Baylor: Over is 8-4 this season
Analysis: The Knights are this year’s Cinderella BCS team, but face a formidable task. Their bowl outing was a success last year, winning comfortably as a seven-point favorite, but in one of the more obscure bowls. The Bears also make their BCS debut with a powerhouse offense. Last season, their bowl game was a rousing success, winning by 23 as a three-point dog. Baylor is getting a good portion of the early action, but they’re giving plenty of points to a UCF team that knocked off a heavily-favored Louisville squad on the road.
Early Lean: Central Florida
Big Ten Bowl Report
By ASAWins
Gator Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (8-4 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Bulldogs (-9, 60.5)
Venue: EverBank Field
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Haven’t we done this before? Nebraska and Georgia met in the Capital One Bowl on year ago, with Georgia winning 45-31 behind five touchdown passes from Aaron Murray. Despite being just one year removed from that meeting – this game will have a much different feel. Neither of the returning QB’s from last year’s game will play here as Georgia’s QB Murray suffered a torn ACL in the 2nd to last game while Nebraska’s QB Taylor Martinez has not been fully healthy all season (just one appearance in Big Ten play). Nebraska is another Big Ten team that can’t wait to get back on the field. The Huskers lost their final game of the season at home on Black Friday to Iowa, 38-17. After the game, head coach Bo Pelini had to endure questions from the media on if he’d be fired or not. It seems that Nebraska will stick with Pelini, at least for one more game, before heading to the offseason. Nebraska finished 3-3 down the stretch. They lost at Minnesota by 11, vs. Michigan State by 13, and vs. Iowa by 21. Wins over that stretch included home vs. Northwestern by 3, at Michigan by 4, and at Penn State by 3 in overtime – meaning Nebraska came dangerously close to a complete second half breakdown this season.
Redshirt freshman Tommy Armstrong, Jr. will get the start at QB here and he’ll need to throw well for the Huskers to win. He should be ready for action after a late-season ankle injury derailed him after he took over for an injured Taylor Martinez back in October. Armstrong completes just 53 percent of his passes and has seven TD and seven INT. If Armstrong struggles, Nebraska could turn to Ron Kellogg III, who started the finale vs. Iowa, but struggled in hitting 19-of-37 passes for 199 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. RB Ameer Abdullah has been the only constant for this offense. He rushed for 1,568 yards and eight scores this season, hitting the 100-yard mark in all but two games this season. He did that despite Nebraska shifting around its offensive line all season long after a string of injuries.
Speaking of injuries, no team in the nation had it worse than the Georgia Bulldogs. Six starters on offense suffered torn ACL’s this season (!) and high hopes of a national title went quickly out the window after a loss to Clemson in the first week of the season. Credit the Bulldogs for not quitting on the season as they won four of the final five games – including an overtime win over in-state rival Georgia Tech in the final week of the season. QB Hutson Mason will get his 2nd career start here in place of Murray. Mason has completed 64.8% of his passes for 648 yards with 4 TD and 2 INT in a little over two games of work. The offense hasn’t missed much with him under center as he led the team to 59 points and 41 points in his two games that he commandeered the offense. Star RB Gurley battled injuries throughout the year (missed three full games) but should be fully rested and healthy for the bowl game. He still finished with 903 rush yards (6.2 YPC), 344 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns (four TD in the finale against GA Tech). He finished with 125 rush yards and a score last year against Nebraska and could have another big day against this struggling Nebraska D.
Georgia’s defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL after last season and it showed early. They allowed 33 PPG through the first seven weeks but showed great improvement over the final five – surrendering just 23.4 PPG. Pelini and the Huskers would like nothing more than to close this season out on a high note with a win here over Georgia, but they’ll have to limit their mistakes. Nebraska finished minus-12 for the year in turnover margin, better than only three teams nationally. Georgia has faced three Big Ten teams in the last five Bowl games – going 2-1 SU & ATS in those games (only loss was a 3-point defeat to Michigan State in the 2011 Outback Bowl. Nebraska is 0-3 SU & ATS in the last three Bowl games, losing the last two to SEC schools.
Capital One Bowl
Wisconsin Badgers (9-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Badgers (-1, 49.5)
Venue: Florida Citrus Stadium
Location: Orlando, FL
Both of these squads finished as the third selection out of their respective conferences. Wisconsin’s loss in the final week of the regular season prevented them from being BCS Bowl eligible while South Carolina was behind Auburn & Alabama. No Big Ten team wants to get on the field more than the Badgers, who delivered their worst performance of the season in their final game against Penn State. Their stellar defense picked a bad game to have an off day as PSU racked up 465 yards and 31 points, including 339 pass yards and 4 TD from freshman QB Hackenberg. This UW defense finished 6th in rush defense, total defense, and scoring defense, and 12th against the pass. Seven of their 12 opponents were held to 10 points or fewer and not one surpassed 32 points. Offensively this unit is led by the duo of James White and Melvin Gordon at running back. Both earned 2nd Team Big Ten honors and form the No. 8 run game (283 YPG) in the nation. The speedy duo helped the Badgers average an FBS-best 8.3 yards per carry outside the tackles, and both rushed for more than 1,300 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns. Wisconsin will try to get its running attack going early in this game and take some of the pressure off of QB Stave – who did not play well to close out the season. Stave threw a career-high three interceptions against PSU and practice reports indicate that Wisconsin is giving reps to JUCO-transfer Tanner McEvoy in case Stave underperforms again.
This offense will face one of their toughest tests of the season against this fierce South Carolina defensive front. The Gamecocks ranked 32nd against the run and 18th in total defense despite playing a buzz saw of a schedule in the SEC. Just one of South Carolina’s opponents scored more than 28 points (Georgia back on September 7th) and the Gamecocks held their final five opponents (Missouri, Mississippi State, Florida, Coastal Carolina, and Clemson) to just 16.2 PPG. They won those five games by a combined 181-81 margin. The star of the show for the Gamecocks was supposed to be defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Nagging injuries and constant double-teams left him with a pedestrian season. The real stars were QB Connor Shaw and RB Mike Davis. Shaw continued to show the country why he's one of the most underrated performers. Shaw battled injuries and showed up for the Gamecocks when it mattered most. He finished the year with 2,135 yards with 21 touchdowns to just one interception. Davis, who is as much a home run threat as a legitimate between-the-tackles bruiser, rushed for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first year as a starter.
South Carolina’s resume is stronger as it boasts wins against Central Florida (AAC Champ) Missouri (SEC runner-up), and Clemson (playing in the Orange Bowl). Wisconsin lost its two marquee games this season: @Arizona State in a highly controversial ending and @Ohio State by seven points. Despite not returning to the Rose Bowl for the fourth consecutive season, all signs point to the Badgers being highly motivated for this game. For one, they lost all three of those Rose Bowls and they have a strong group of seniors (Jared Abbrederis, James White, and Chris Borland to name a few) that want to end their collegiate career with a Bowl victory. South Carolina has won back-to-back Bowl games, both against Big Ten opponents (Nebraska in 2011, Michigan in 2012).
Outback Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Tigers (-7, 49)
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, FL
Iowa bounced back nicely after a dismal 4-8 finish in 2012. Many doubted Kirk Ferentz’s team in the preseason and few had the team pegged as the 2nd best in the Legends division. Stout defensive play and a strong rushing attack led the team to an 8-4 finish, including three straight victories to close out the season. Their four losses came against Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin – who boast a combined record of 45-6. The Hawkeyes' success starts on defense, where they ranked in the top 20 nationally against both the pass and the run (7th overall in yards allowed). Everything revolves around a standout trio of senior linebackers in James Morris, Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey, who combined for nearly 300 tackles and more than 30 tackles for loss. Rushing yards don’t come easy against this team as opponents average just 3.5 YPC and have scored just 5 rushing touchdowns against this Iowa defense all season long.
LSU will be dependent on running the ball as the Tigers’ starting QB all season, Zach Mettenberger, injured his knee and will miss this game. Freshman Anthony Jennings will get the start under center for LSU. He has attempted just 10 passes in relief duty this season, completing six for 99 yards with one TD. He has two of the nation’s top receivers to throw to in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Both have over 1,100 receiving yards this season with 18 combined touchdowns. Still, expect LSU to lean on a running attack led by RB’s Hill & Magee. Hill (1,185 rush yards) averages 6.8 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns while Magee (614 yards) averages 7.8 YPC with eight touchdowns. This LSU defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL last season and it has not been the dominant unit that we’ve come to expect from LSU. It’s a big testament to defensive coordinator John Chavis that he has this team ranked 20th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense. This defense had its ups (21 points allowed to Auburn, 10 points allowed to Texas A&M) and its downs (44 points allowed to Georgia, 38 points allowed to Alabama), but overall is a pretty stout unit.
Iowa’s offense is far from explosive and LSU’s defense has the talent edge over the Hawkeyes O. The Hawks finished 81st in yards per game and 74th in points per game. The RB trio of Weisman, Bullock, and Canzeri combined for 1,852 rush yards (4.7 YPC) and 10 TD. First year QB Rudock finished with 2,281 pass yards (60.2%) with 18 TD and 12 INT. He has also shown the ability to extend plays with his legs (223 rush yards and 5 scores). LSU had much higher hopes than the Outback Bowl this season while Iowa is thrilled to go Bowling again after a one-year hiatus – so motivation will be a key factor in this game. LSU has dropped three of its last four Bowl games. Iowa has won three of its last four Bowl games, including a 21-point win over SEC South Carolina in the 20089 version of the Outback Bowl. These two last met in 2005 in the Capital One Bowl, with Iowa winning 30-25.
Rose Bowl
Michigan State Spartans (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Line: Cardinal (-4, 41)
Venue: Rose Bowl
Location: Pasadena, CA
The 100th Rose Bowl in 2014 looks more like a 1950’s style Rose Bowl as it features two suffocating defense and two power-style offenses. The first thing that jumps out about this matchup is the similar styles. Much like Stanford’s 20-14 win against Wisconsin in the Rose last year, points could be at a premium. Both Stanford (18.6 ppg) and Michigan State (12.7) allow fewer than 20 points per game, and the Spartans lead the nation in total defense. Neither team has allowed more than 28 points in a game this year; both allowed 28 on two occasions. Stanford will play in its second consecutive Rose Bowl after a definitive win over Arizona State in the Pac-12 Championship game. The Cardinal had +206 yards and had three touchdowns of 22+ yards. Stanford’s stout defense held ASU to just 311 yards and QB Kelly to just 173 pass yards and one TD.
There’s nothing sexy about this team as they use a power-run style behind RB Gaffney. Gaffney has 1,613 rush yards (5.3 YPC) and 20 rush TD this season (rush TD in every game but one this season). QB Hogan manages games well, but the passing attack is where this team struggles. Hogan has completed 61.4% of his passes this year with 20 TD and just 9 INT. He had just 14 TD in conference play and that includes a 5 TD performance against lowly Cal. MSU will be by far the best defense that Stanford faces this season. Rushing yards won’t be easy to come by against the top-ranked rushing defense (80 rush YPG allowed) and Hogan will be forced to make plays with his arm.
Michigan State was able to overcome an uncharacteristically poor performance from its defense to win the Big Ten Championship against previously undefeated Ohio State. OSU was able to gain 273 rush yards on 6.8 YPC, but the Spartans forced a number of key stops as OSU was just 1-of-10 on third down and 0-of-2 on 4th down. Offensively QB Cook passed for a career-high 304 yards and three touchdowns and RB Langford rushed for over 100 yards for the eighth consecutive game and sealed the game with a 26-yard rush TD with 2:16 remaining to seal the victory. Cook made huge strides this year and has developed into one of the top QB’s in the conference with 20 TD and just 5 INT this season. A balanced offense is the perfect complement to a suffocating defense and allowed the Spartans to win each of their nine Big Ten games by 10 points or more this season.
MSU leads the nation in fewest yards allowed (248.2 ypg), rush yards allowed (80.8 ypg) and third-down conversions allowed (27.7 percent), and ranks second in pass efficiency defense and fourth in points allowed. This is Stanford’s fourth straight BCS game and second straight Rose Bowl. The Spartans will play in their first BCS Bowl and haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1988, when they beat USC 20-17. The teams’ only common opponent is Notre Dame. The Irish handed Michigan State its only loss of the season, 17-13 on Sept. 21., but fell 27-20 at Stanford on Nov. 30. Stanford has won its last 10 games against ranked opponents, with the last loss coming two years ago in the Fiesta Bowl to Oklahoma State.
Inside the stats: Let's go bowling
By MARC LAWRENCE
Let’s take a look at what’s trending this New Year’s Day bowl card.
Bowling For Dollars
Here is a look at the most recent trends that have occurred inside each of the five major bowl games on tap New Year’s Day…
Heart Of Dallas Bowl: The favorite is 2-1 ATS and the OVER is 2-1 in this bowl game since its inception.
Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five years and 6-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.
Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed each of the last three years, snapping a previous four year run by the dogs.
Orange Bowl: The favorite is 2-4 ATS the last six years, with the dog winning straight up four times.
Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins six have been in straight up fashion.
Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 7-1 SU and ATS the last eight games versus Big 10 opponents.
Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
Good numbers: ACC bowl teams as dogs off a SU loss (Clemson) are 18-5-1 ATS, with Boston College and Duke results from 12/31 pending… Big 10 bowl teams off a double-digit SU win (Iowa and Michigan State) are 10-3 ATS… Big 12 bowl favorites of 8 or more points (Baylor) are 5-1 ATS… PAC 12 bowl teams off back-to-back SU wins (Stanford) are 7-1 ATS.
Bad Numbers: SEC bowl favorites of 8 or more points who allowed 35 or more points in their last game (Georgia) are 1-5 ATS.
Ugly numbers: Big 10 bowl teams who allowed 35 or more points in their last games (Nebraska) are 2-11 ATS.
Coach Me Up
Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is 6-2 ATS as a bowl dog, and 3-1 SUATS vs. SEC opponents.
LSU’s Les Miles is 4-1 SUATS In bowl games vs. .818 or less opponents.
Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio is 12-3 ATS away vs. an opponent off a SUATS win.
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier is 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents off a SU favorite loss.
Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen is 18-3-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents.
My Favorite Martian
Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.
That’s confirmed by a 75-53 ATS overall mark.
The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 32-14 ATS.
Georgia and North Texas look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.
New Resolution
In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether UNLV maintains status quo today.
The Rebels are 10-15 SU and 16-6 ATS at home under head coach Bobby Hauck. They are 3-22 SU and 7-17 ATS away from Vegas.
Stat Of The Day
Central Florida is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents in its school history.
scott ferrall paid picks
NEBRASKA +9 ½
Georgia
Unlv
NORTH TEXAS -6
Wisconsin
SOUTH CAROLINA +2
Iowa
LSU -7 ½
Bryan Leonard
north texas
Norm Hitzges picks of the pole (free) next 3 days
Jan. 1
North Texas -6 UNLV
Wisconsin -1 So. Carolina
UCF +16 1/2 Baylor
COLLEGE BOWLS
DOUBLE PLAYS:
Alabama -14 Oklahoma (Jan. 2)
JOE GAVAZZI
4* Iowa
4* Stanford
Jackpot Sports
Bowl Game
UNLV +6.5
The Philly Godfather
CFB
STRAIGHT BET [248] TOTAL UNDER 61-110 (NEBRASKA vrs GEORGIA) 100:
Heart of Dallas Bowl: What bettors need to know
UNLV Rebels vs. North Texas Mean Green (-6.5, 54.5)
Game played at Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Texas
HEART OF DALLAS BOWL
When its comes to the two most unlikeliest teams to be playing in a New Year's Day bowl game, you'd be hard-pressed to beat the Heart of Dallas Bowl matchup between UNLV and North Texas. Both teams combined to win a total of just six games a year ago and the Rebels entered the season following back-to-back-to-back two-win campaign. But both teams overcame slow starts -- UNLV began 0-2 while North Texas started 2-3 -- to end long bowl droughts and wind up playing at the Cotton Bowl on one of college football's most sacred days.
The Mean Green play a short drive north up I-35 in Denton, Texas and is making its first bowl appearance since 2004 when it lost the last of four consecutive New Orleans Bowls to Southern Mississippi, 31-10. UNLV is playing in its first bowl game since 2000 when it upset Arkansas in the Las Vegas Bowl, 31-14. The Rebels lead the all-time series with the Mean Green, 4-0, and won the last meeting in 2000 in Las Vegas, 38-0.
TV: Noon ET, ESPNU.
LINE: The Mean Green opened as 6.5-point faves. The total has held at 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in Dallas will be in the low-50s with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph.
ABOUT UNLV (7-5): Senior quarterback Caleb Herring, moved to wide receiver for his junior season after a disappointing sophomore campaign, has been the MVP of this team. He took over for sophomore Nick Sherry midway through the UNLV's third game with Central Michigan and rallied the Rebels from a 21-0 deficit to a 31-21 victory, the start of the team's first four-game regular-season win streak since 1984 when Randall Cunningham was the quarterback. Herring has passed for 2,522 yards and 22 touchdowns and been intercepted just four times.
ABOUT NORTH TEXAS (8-4): The Mean Green rank ninth nationally in scoring defense (18.1) and have been particularly tough in the red zone, allowing teams to score touchdowns just 45.5 percent of the time which, ranks sixth nationally. Senior running back Brandin Byrd leads the offense with 1,023 yards rushing, including 251 yards and three touchdowns in a season-ending 42-10 win at Tulsa. Derek Thompson, who passed for 2,640 yards this season, ranks second in school history in career passing yards with 7,191.
TRENDS:
* Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Mean Green are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Rebels last five vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Mean Green last six games following a ATS win.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. RB Tim Cornett (1,251 yards, 15 TDs) and WR Devante Davis (77 catches, 1,194 yards, 14 TDs) became UNLV's first duo to top 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season.
2. North Texas has blocked eight kicks this season.
3. North Texas senior Brelan Chancellor led Conference USA in both kickoff (28.14) and punt returns (16.82).
Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl: What bettors need to know
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-9, 59.5)
Game played at EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL STORYLINES
1. Georgia and Nebraska have been mirror images of each other, making it appropriate the two schools meet for the second time in a year Jan.1 at the TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla. The Bulldogs downed the Cornhuskers in the Capital One Bowl last season, but both teams will be without the record-setting quarterbacks who appeared in that game. Georgia’s Aaron Murray tore his ACL in late November while Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez missed most of the season with a foot injury.
2. With the replacement quarterbacks’ roles likely to be somewhat minimized (Hutson Mason for Georgia and either Ron Kellogg III or Tommy Armstrong Jr. for Nebraska), the Bulldogs’ Todd Gurley and the Cornhuskers’ Ameer Abdullah figure to show their wares as two of the nation's top running backs. Gurley closed the season by gouging Georgia Tech for 122 yards on the ground and four total touchdowns while Abdullah ranks seventh in the country in rushing.
3. Nebraska and Georgia are among the most frequent visitors to the postseason in college football history. The Cornhuskers will celebrate their 50th bowl-game appearance (only Alabama and Texas have more) against the Bulldogs, who will appear in their 49th bowl game.
TV: Noon ET, ESPN2.
LINE: Georgia opened -9. The total is down one point from the opening 60.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing toward the SW endzone at 6 mph. There is an 81 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:
* Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
* Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five non-conference games.
* Under is 8-2 in Cornhuskers last 10 neutral site games.
ABOUT NEBRASKA (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten): Most of the offensive line that got wrecked by injuries during the season is expected to be back in place by the bowl game – including tackle Jeremiah Sirles, guard Jake Cotton and guard/center Cole Pensick. The Cornhuskers finished last in the Big Ten and in a tie for 118th in the country in turnover margin (minus-12). Buoyed by the emergence of defensive end Randy Gregory (Big Ten-high 8.5 sacks), Nebraska yielded an average of 306 yards after it gave up 410.4 over its first seven contests.
ABOUT GEORGIA (8-4, 5-3 SEC): Injuries also derailed the Bulldogs from the outset, ending the season for key players such as defensive end Malcolm Mitchell, wide receiver Justin Scott-Wesley and running back Keith Marshall. Gurley also missed three games due to an ankle injury, but the offense averaged 41.2 points once Gurley returned. Georgia gave up at least 30 points to eight opponents and finished last in the SEC in passing yards allowed per attempt (7.6).
Capital One Bowl: What bettors need to know
Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (+1.5, 51)
Game to be played at Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
CAPITAL ONE BOWL STORYLINES
1. The last time South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney played in a bowl game, he became a national sensation based on one brutal hit. The Gamecocks star will try to provide another highlight in possibly his last college game when the Gamecocks face Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 1. The Badgers had a six-game winning streak snapped in the regular-season finale and are stepping back after three straight trips to the Rose Bowl.
2. Clowney is a likely top-five draft pick should he choose to leave school after his junior season and is hoping to help South Carolina to a third straight bowl win over a Big Ten School. The Gamecocks ended the regular season with five straight victories, including wins over top-10 opponents Missouri and Clemson.
3. Wisconsin finished second in the Big Ten Leaders Division, robbing it of a chance to make a fourth straight trip to the Rose Bowl as the champion of the Big Ten. The Badgers rely on a strong running game and tight defense, something they have in common with South Carolina.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC.
LINE: South Carolina opened as a 2.5-point dog and is now +1.5. The total opeend at 51.
WEATHER: Temperatures in Orlando will be in the high-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.
TRENDS:
* Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Gamecocks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
* Under is 6-2 in Badgers last eight Bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Gamecocks last five Bowl games.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten): The Badgers gave up a little balance on offense in favor of a heavy running attack led by a pair of backs - Melvin Gordon (1,466) and James White (1,337) - that each eclipsed 1,300 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns on the ground. Wisconsin also excels at stopping the run, ranking second in the Big Ten behind conference champion Michigan State in rushing defense with an average of 101.3 yards allowed. The most dynamic player on the team may be senior receiver Jared Abbrederis, who is playing his final college game after posting career highs with 73 catches and 1,051 yards in the regular season.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2, 6-2 SEC): Clowney was ticketed for driving 110 mph in a 70-mph zone early in December but will be available for the Capital One Bowl and will key a defense that finished second in the SEC against the run. “We’ll have to get our run defense pants on, that’s for sure,” Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier said. “When you play a team like Wisconsin that can run it and run it and run it, they can stay on the field for a long time if you don’t watch it.” Connor Shaw passed for 21 touchdowns and just one interception during the regular season and adds to the ground game as well, including a season-high 94 yards and a touchdown against Clemson in the finale.
Outback Bowl: What bettors need to know
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. LSU Tigers (-7, 49)
Game played at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
OUTBACK BOWL STORYLINES
1. The spotlight will be on freshman quarterback Anthony Jennings when LSU meets Iowa in the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla., on New Year's Day. Jennings will make his first career start in replacing Zach Mettenberger, who suffered a torn ACL in the Tigers' 31-27 victory over Arkansas on Nov. 29 in their regular-season finale. “He’s a very accurate thrower,” Tigers coach Les Miles told The Advocate about Jennings. “I think he fits the offense that Zach was running. ... We will run our offense just the way it is.”
2. Iowa is riding a three-game winning streak including victories over Michigan and Nebraska and wound up second in the Big Ten's Legends Division behind Rose Bowl-bound Michigan State. LSU won its last two games over Mississippi State and Texas A&M to finish third in the SEC West Division behind Auburn and Alabama.
3. The only previous meeting occurred Jan. 1, 2005 when Drew Tate threw a 56-yard touchdown pass to Warren Holloway as time expired to lift the Hawkeyes to a 30-25 victory in the Capital One Bowl. It was the final game in the LSU coaching career of Nick Saban as news broke hours later that Miles would take over.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: LSU opened-7 and the total has held at 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures at Raymond James Stadium will be in the mid-60s with a 52 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Hawkeyes last five non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Tigers last five Bowl games.
ABOUT IOWA (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten): The Hawkeyes boast the No. 7 defense in the country at 303.2 yards per game - 11th against the pass (182.4) and 17th versus the run (120.8). Iowa's effective but unspectacular offense is led by sophomore Jake Rudock (60.2 percent completion rate, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions). The Hawkeyes are 14-11-1 in bowl games - 6-4 in coach Kirk Ferentz's previous 14 seasons (2-1 in the Outback Bowl) - and play in one for the fifth time in six years.
ABOUT LSU (9-3, 5-3 SEC): The Tigers averaged a potent 37 points with Mettenberger at the controls and their 200.8 rushing yards per game could be a big help to Jennings. Jeremy Hill ran for 1,185 yards and 14 touchdowns, but the sophomore is expected to be the focal point of Iowa's defense with Jennings at the helm. The Tigers, who are trying for a school-record fourth consecutive 10-win season, are 22-21-1 in bowl games and have appeared in one for 14 straight seasons.
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