1-1-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential betting tidbits for New Year's Day's bowl games

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for Wednesday's six NCAA bowl games that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Nebraska Cornhuskers, who face No. 22 Georgia in the Gator Bowl, have played Under the total in eight of their last 10 neutral-site games.

- The Bulldogs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after surrendering more than 450 yards in their previous outing. Georgia was torched for 495 yards in a 41-34 double-overtime win over Georgia Tech on Nov. 30.

- UNLV, which tangles with North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. The Rebels are coming off a 45-19 thumping of San Diego State on Nov. 30.

- The Mean Green have played Under the total in nine of their last 11 games following a 40-point effort in their previous encounter. North Texas trounced Tulsa 42-10 on Nov. 30.

- No. 19 Wisconsin, which will take on No. 9 South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl, is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games but came up short in each of its final two games of the season.

- The Gamecocks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl appearances, and 1-6 ATS in their previous seven neutral-site games.

- Iowa, which battles No. 16 LSU in the Outback Bowl, is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games following a SU win. The Hawkeyes come in off a season-ending 38-17 triumph over Nebraska on Nov. 29.

- The Tigers have played Over the total in their last 12 games on grass, and in each of their previous four non-conference games.

- No. 5 Stanford, which will take on No. 4 Michigan State in the Rose Bowl, is 26-9-1 ATS in its last 36 games following a SU win of 20 or more points. The Cardinal come in following a 38-14 drubbing of Arizona State on Dec. 7.

- The Spartans have played Under the total in 14 of their last 17 games on grass.

- No. 15 Central Florida, which has a Fiesta Bowl date with No. 6 Baylor, is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.

- The Bears, coming in off a 30-10 triumph over Texas, are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following an SU win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: New Year's bowl line moves

The first day of the new year means bowl action really starts heating up. Wednesday has a pair of BCS bowl games as well as four other bowls. No less than eight Top 25 teams will be taking the field across the nation.

We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about the action coming in on all the bowl games that New Year's Day has to offer.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs - Open: -9.5, Move: -9, Move: -8.5

Both the Huskers and Bulldogs have had to endure injuries this season. The teams met in the Capital One Bowl one year ago with Georgia trumping Nebraska by a score of 45-31. Each team will be starting backup quarterbacks this time around and the Bulldogs opened as favorites.

"On December 19, got sharp bet on Nebraska +9.5, so moved to +9," Perry tells Covers. "Last Thursday, another sharp play came on the Huskers, so moved to +8.5, where it still stands. Fifty-five percent of cash is on Nebraska."

UNLV Rebels vs. North Texas Mean Green - Open: -6, Move: -6.5, Move: -7

In what is probably the least-interesting bowl game on New Year's Day, sharp action has been fairly steady on the Mean Green of North Texas. It's been a year of change for both programs, as the two combined for just six wins all of last season, but combined for 15 this time around.

"This is pretty much a Snooze Year's Day Bowl game unless you have a bet on it," states Perry. "December 11th got sharp play on North Texas -6, so moved to -6.5. On Christmas Eve, we got another sharp play on the favorite so now using -7. Sixty-two percent of money is backing UNLV."

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. LSU Tigers - Open: -8

This line has yet to move with the Tigers as the favorites. This despite quarterback Zach Mettenberger out with an ACL tear.

Iowa heads into the Outback Bowl hot as it rides a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS), including victories over both Michigan and Nebraska.

"A line where oddsmakers set it perfect, as it opened LSU -8 and still remains at that number," says Perry. " A couple of injury issues for both teams as Iowa QB Jake Rudock is probable (knee) and LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr is also probable (hip). Sixty-two percent of money is on the Tigers."

Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks - Open: +2.5, Move: -1.5, Move: +1.5

The Badgers missed out on a fourth-straight trip to the Rose Bowl as they finished second in the Leaders Division. The Badgers were one of the top bets in college football as they finished the season 9-2-1 ATS.

South Carolina star Jadeveon Clowney could be playing in his last game for the program as he is likely destined to be a top-five pick in the NFL draft. The Gamecocks are also a hot team, riding a five-game winning streak and is 4-1 ATS during that stretch.

"A lot of movement on this game," Perry said. "Opened Wisconsin -2.5, and moved all the way to South Carolina -1.5, before going back in the Badgers favor to the current number of -1.5. Sixty percent of cash on the Gamecocks."

Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans - Open: +3.5, Move: +6.5

The 100th edition of the Rose Bowl pits two of the best defensive units in the country. That said, the Spartans will have to make due without their defensive captain as LB Max Bullough is out because of a suspension.

The Cardinal play in their fourth-straight BCS bowl game and defeated Wisconsin in last season's game in Pasadena. Action is all on the Cardinal in this one as their backers have moved the number since post.

"Big line move in the 'Granddaddy of Them All' as Stanford has gone from -3.5 to -6.5," Perry said. "Quite a few wiseguys like the Cardinal to not only win their second-straight Rose Bowl, but cover it as well. Not a big decision on this game at all, as 53 percent of cash is on Stanford."

Central Florida Knights vs. Baylor Bears - Open: -17, Move: -16.5

Both programs make their BCS Bowl debuts in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Wednesday night. Baylor and its high-octane offense leads the country in scoring at 53.3 points per game. Central Florida has the 13th ranked defense in the country, but it will be a tall order to shut down this offense.

Sharp action on the Knights moved the line early, but the majority of bettors don't give them a chance to cover the gaudy spread.

"We got small sharp play on UCF +17, so moved to +16.5," he said. "Central Florida already shocked the college football world once when they beat Louisville on the road. They will have Baylor's attention because of this feat, so dont expect an aftershock here. Only 34 percent of cash thinks UCF can cover the big spread."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF BCS Bowls biggest betting mismatches
By JASON LOGAN

With the BCS Bowl schedule opening with the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day, we have a special edition of our biggest betting mismatches looking at the five big BCS bowl games, uncovering some of the underlying mismatches to help you get the edge.

Rose Bowl

Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans (+6.5, 42.5)

Cardinal’s yards per play vs. Spartans’ lack of punch

Stanford’s offense is one of the most efficient in the country, scoring 33.2 points per game and putting up 6.3 yards per play – tied for 18th in the land. The Cardinal anchor their offense with the run and will take advantage of that big hole left in the middle of the MSU defense by Max Bullough’s suspension.

If the Spartans defense buckles, the offense may not have enough to climb out of a hole. Michigan State’s scoring attack was off and on all season. The Green and White appeared to be finding their way in November but then mustered only 14 points in a win over Minnesota. Michigan State averaged only 5.2 yards per play and ranked among the bottom of the Big Ten in big plays.

Fiesta Bowl

Central Florida Knights vs. Baylor Bears (-16.5, 70.5)

Knights’ slowed-down offense vs. Bears’ high-octane offense

The Knights best chance of slowing down Baylor’s explosive offense is to keep them off the field at the Fiesta Bowl. Central Florida has a cool and calculated offense, running only 68.3 plays per game and burning through 31:58 of time of possession. Despite that slow-motion pace, UCF still put up 33.2 points per game.

The Bears’ up-tempo attack ranked tops in yards (625.6 yards per game) and points (53.2 points per game) but worked quickly, using up just 27:40 of clock per game – 107th in the FBS. Baylor was dominated in time of possession in its loss to Oklahoma State, with the Pokes control 35:23 of clock. If UCF dictates the pace, that massive spread could be tough to cover.

Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5, 51.5)

Sooners’ dual-threat Trevor Knight vs. Crimson Tide’s weakness to running QB

Alabama doesn’t have many chinks in its armor, however, the Tide have been exposed by running quarterbacks this season. They allowed Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel sprint for 98 yards and watched Auburn QB Nick Marshall put up 99 yards and a score on the ground in the Iron Bowl.

Mike Herndon of AL.com made note of the Tide’s weakness and says Nick Saban is well aware of the damage OU dual-threat Trevor Knight can do. Knight, who is splitting snaps with fellow QB Blake Bell, has rushed for 438 yards – picking up more than seven yards per carry. Knight is nursing a hand injury but is expected to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Orange Bowl

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers (+2.5, 69.5)

Buckeyes’ battered defense vs. Tigers’ scoring options

The Buckeyes defense fell apart down the stretch, giving up 75 points in the final two games of the season, including 41 points to rival Michigan. Ohio State’s pass defense was exposed for 451 yards versus the Wolverines and 304 yards versus MSU, and limp into the Orange Bowl with significant injuries in the stop unit, most notably cornerback Bradley Roby.

Clemson’s connection of Tahj Boyd and Sammy Watkins is the best the nation, but the Tigers have plenty of other options on offense. Six-foot-5 WRs Martavis Bryant and Mike Williams are tough covers as is speedy Adam Humphries. Tight end Stanton Seckinger is also an option at 6-foot-4. Including Watkins, who caught 10 TDs, 13 different players caught passes for six points this season.

BCS Championship

Auburn Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles (-8.5, 67.5)

Tigers’ home runs vs. Seminoles’ punt coverage

The Seminoles haven’t punted much this season, kicking the ball away only 36 times – second fewest in the country. Florida State, however, didn’t hold its ground covering those punts, allowing opponents to run back for an average of 18.27 yards – worst in the ACC and third worst in the FBS. Auburn is notorious for its big plays on special teams and can put the FSU Goliath on its heels with a big play on special teams.

The Tigers have one of the most dangerous return threats in college football in Tre Mason, who will live forever for his missed FG return TD in the Iron Bowl. Auburn was second in the SEC in punt returns at 11.76 yards per punt and was fourth in kickoff return yardage at 24.06. The Tigers have a taste for the big plays on offense as well, with eight plays of 50-plus yards, five plays of 60 or more, and four plays for 70-plus yards this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

The busy Premier League holiday season concludes with a full slate of New Year's Day games. This round of fixtures also represents the second time around the schedule as each team plays in it's 20th match of the season.

Swansea v Manchester City (+475, +325, -163)

Why bet Swansea: The Swans are enduring a rough patch of form as they've lost two and drawn three in their last five matches overall. Injuries have ravaged the side of late and have yet to adjust to life without talisman Michu. They're at home, and Manchester City is far from the club it is at the Etihad, but it will be a daunting task.

Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Michel Vorm, Garry Monk, Nathan Dyer

Why bet Manchester City: The Citizens are currently the faves to win the Premier League and deservedly so. They are currently enjoying a fantastic run of form as they've won four-straight matches and haven't lost in their last eight.

Key players out/doubtful: David Silva, Sergio Agüero, Micah Richards, Stevan Jovetic, MartÃ*n Demichelis

Previous meeting result: Man City 3, Swansea 0

Key betting note: Man City has won seven of the previous eight matches.


Arsenal v Cardiff (-350, +500, +1200)

Why bet Arsenal: After a huge victory over a resurgent Newcastle side, the Gunners took their spot atop the Premier League table. They'll have to overcome a gaggle of injuries, however, but could be poised to welcome Lukas Podolski back to the starting XI Wednesday.

Key players out/doubtful: Aaron Ramsey, Kieran Gibbs, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Olivier Giroud

Why bet Cardiff: Poor Cardiff. Vincent Tan has turned the club into a laughing stock this season. The side has no manager as the ever popular Malkey Mckay was sacked by the club Friday. They are spiraling out of control and you'd be hard pressed to find a reason to back them at the Emirates.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

Previous meeting result: Cardiff 0, Arsenal 3

Key betting note: The Gunners are unbeaten in 26 of their past 29 Premier League matches.


Crystal Palace v Norwich (+138, +230, +230)

Why bet Crystal Palace: The Eagles have lost three of their last four matches, but were unlucky in two of them. Especially their last match against red-hot Man City. They may not have gotten positive results lately, but they are certainly playing much better football. A home game against an erratic Norwich side could be the solid result they seek.

Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Jerome Thomas, Cameron Jerome

Why bet Norwich: They've lost two in a row and just can't seem to find the consistency they need, but the Canaries will field the better XI here. They've spent well in the offseason, and could spend some more in January, but they need to clean up their act if they wish to target talented players. One of those summer purchases has found a bit of form as Gary Hooper has three goals in his last five matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Elliott Bennett, Alexander Tettey, Anthony Pilkington

Previous meeting result: Norwich 1, Palace 0

Key betting note: Palace has kept scorelines under the 2.5 goal total in nine of its last 11 matches.


Fulham v West Ham (+150, +230, +210)

Why bet Fulham: This is a battle of two flat-out awful clubs so something probably has to give. The Cottagers have mixed in a win here and there, but are coming off an appalling performance against Hull.

Key players out/doubtful: Philippe Senderos, Matthew Briggs, Maarten Stekelenburg, Brede Hangeland

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers put all of their money in one basket - the Andy Carroll basket - and that hasn't paid off at all as the big striker has been hurt. Recent history is on their side, however, as their last win came against, you guessed it, Fulham.

Key players out/doubtful: Winston Reid, James Tomkins, James Collins, Stewart Downing, Ricardo Vaz Te, Andy Carroll

Previous meeting result: West Ham 3, Fulham 0

Key betting note: Fulham has lost nine of its last 11 games.


Liverpool v Hull (-333, +500, +1000)

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds may have exhibited that they are not title contenders as they've dropped two-straight matches. Granted, those losses were away to both City and Chelsea, but if they had title aspirations, those road wins would have gone a long way. They'll look to get back in the winning column against the promoted Tigers.

Key players out/doubtful: Daniel Sturridge, Mamadou Sakho, Joe Allen, Jon Flanagan, José Enrique

Why bet Hull: The Tigers exploded against an awful Fulham side for six goals last time out. Sitting a respectable 10th on 23 points, the Tigers look poised to stay up in the top flight. Momentum is on their side coming off that barrage of goals, and they'll try to repeat their victory over the Reds in the previous meeting.

Key players out/doubtful: Sone Aluko, Stephen Quinn, Joe Dudgeon

Previous meeting result: Hull 3, Liverpool 1

Key betting note: The Reds have netted at least three goals in their last six matches at Anfield.


Southampton v Chelsea (+300, +250, +105)

Why bet Southampton: The Saints finally posted a victory on Boxing Day after tumbling down the table, but promptly lost to Everton last time out. Southampton is capable of hanging with the big boys as we've seen in the earlier stages of the season, but they need to start getting results before clubs like Hull close the gap.

Key players out/doubtful: Victor Wanyama, Guly, Pablo Osvaldo, Artur Boruc

Why bet Chelsea: The Blues will be bolstered as midfield-dynamo Ramires returns from suspension for this fixture. They've won back-to-back matches and three of four overall, and also nabbed all three points from the Saints at Stamford Bridge in the earlier meeting.

Key players out/doubtful: David Luiz, Ryan Bertrand, Marco van Ginkel

Previous meeting result: Chelsea 3, Southampton 1

Key betting note: The Saints have seen scorelines go over the 2.5 goal total in their last three games.


Stoke v Everton (+300, +230, +110)

Why bet Stoke: The Potters are another club currently in the midst of a rough spell, but they'll have Glenn Whelan and Marc Wilson back from suspension. They showed no inspiration or creativity at all in their 3-0 loss to Tottenham, so there's nowhere to go but up.

Key players out/doubtful: Asmir Begovic, Robert Huth

Why bet Everton: Everton had a mini-hiccup when it lost at home to Sunderland, but the club bounced back in fine form to defeat Southampton 2-1 last time out. They're still in fourth and show no signs that they won't compete for Champions League football by the end of the season.

Key players out/doubtful: Gerard Deulofeu, Darron Gibson, Tony Hibbert, Arouna Koné

Previous meeting result: Everton 4, Stoke 0

Key betting note: The Potters are unbeaten in their last six home matches.


Sunderland v Aston Villa (+115, +240, +275)

Why bet Sunderland: This club might be at the bottom of the table, but they won't be for long. At home against a slumping Villa side is the perfect fixture to start their climb up the table. Results have been positive of late as they've drawn three and won one in their last four.

Key players out/doubtful: Wes Brown, Carlos Cuéllar, Keiren Westwood

Why bet Aston Villa: You would think something must be going right when a side doesn't start a striker of Christian Benteke's caliber. Sadly, that's just not the case for the Villains. Benteke's slumping season is a microcosm of the club's, but they snapped a four-game losing skid with a 1-1 draw against Swansea last time out.

Key players out/dobutful: Ciaran Clark, Charles N'Zogbia, Jores Okore

Previous meeting result: Villa 0, Sunderland 0

Key betting note: Villa is unbeaten against Sunderland in their last five meetings.


West Brom v Newcastle (+160, +240, +188)

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies finally put multiple goals on the board in a 3-3 draw with West Ham at Upton Park last time out. They are, however, mired in the worst run of form in the league as they're now winless in their previous nine matches in the Premier League.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies will be eager to get in the winning column to keep pace with the big boys of the league as they're coming off a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal. Newcastle has been excellent all season and should be poised to grab an important three points on the road.

Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor

Previous meeting result: Newcastle 2, West Brom 1

Key betting note: West Brom has drawn three-straight matches.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur (-125, +280, +375)

Why bet Manchester United: Like the blue half of Manchester, United is also enjoying a four-match winning streak. They continue life without Robin Van Persie, but they will look to extend their winning ways at Old Trafford against an inconsistent - and banged-up - Spurs side.

Key players out/doubtful: Marouane Fellaini, Nani, Phil Jones

Why bet Tottenham: Here is another prime example of new boss, new results. Tim Sherwood has taken over the club after the canning of Andre Villas-Boas, and has seen largely positive results. They are coming off what could be their best performance of the season in a 3-0 whipping of Stoke. Christian Eriksen has found some great form under Sherwood's guidance, but the side must play the next month without midfielder Paulinho, who picked up an injury against the Potters.

Key players out/doubtful: Paulinho, Jan Vertonghen, Sandro, Younes Kaboul, Andros Townsend

Previous meeting result: Spurs 2, United 2

Key betting note: Spurs have won their last three matches away from White Hart Lane.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rose Bowl: What bettors need to know

Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans (+6.5, 42.5)

Game played at Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California.

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY VIZIO STORYLINES

1. The 100th edition of the Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio features Michigan State’s first appearance in the game in 26 years. The Spartans have already set a school record for victories but the achievement will feel even better if the fourth Rose Bowl win in program history is the topper. Stanford, playing in a BCS bowl for the fourth straight season and making its 14th Rose Bowl appearance, dispatched of Wisconsin in last year’s contest in Pasadena.

2. The defenses are expected to set the tone as Michigan State leads the nation in total defense (247.8) and Stanford ranks 14th (339). The Spartans also lead the nation in rushing defense (80.8) and the Cardinal excel at pounding standout running back Tyler Gaffney (1.618 yards, 20 touchdowns) between the tackles. Stanford ranks third at stopping the run (91.2) and is tied for the national lead with 40 sacks.

3. In a contest featuring hard-nosed play in the trenches, some top-notch athletes like Stanford receiver/returner Ty Montgomery and Michigan State cornerback Darqueze Dennard could shine. Montgomery caught 58 passes for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns and averaged 31.2 yards and scored two touchdowns on kickoff returns. Dennard (four interceptions) is the consensus top defensive back in the nation after winning the Thorpe Award.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Stanford opened -3.5 and has jumped to -6.5. The total has held at 42.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Cardinal last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Spartans last five neutral site games.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (12-1, 9-0 Big Ten): The Spartans allow 12.7 points per game – fourth-best nationally – and Dennard has plenty of company when it comes to standout defenders. Safety Kurtis Drummond also had four interceptions, linebacker Denicos Allen (15.5) and end Shilique Calhoun (14) combined for 29.5 tackles for loss but defensive leader Max Bullough (9.5 stops for loss as the Big Ten’s top middle linebacker) will miss the contest after being suspended. Michigan State scores 29.8 points per game with running back Jeremy Langford (1,338 yards, 17 touchdowns) leading the way and quarterback Connor Cook (2,423 yards) throwing 20 touchdowns against just five interceptions.

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2, 8-2 Pac-12): The Cardinal typically control games with their defensive front seven, led by outside linebacker Trent Murphy (nation-leading 14 sacks) and inside linebacker Shayne Skov (100 tackles, 10 for losses). Stanford also boasts strong performers in the secondary in safeties Ed Reynolds (77 tackles) and Jordan Richards (three interceptions). While Gaffney’s work as a bell-cow – he’s carried 306 times – fuels the offense, quarterback Kevin Hogan (2,487 yards) has thrown for 20 touchdowns against nine interceptions for an attack producing 33.2 points per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: What bettors need to know

Central Florida Knights vs. Baylor Bears (-16.5, 69.5)

Game to played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Fifth-ranked Baylor brings the nation’s top attack (53.3 points per game) into the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on New Year’s Day, but No. 15 Central Florida is no offensive slouch. The Knights average 33.2 points behind quarterback Blake Bortles, who ranks ninth nationally in passing efficiency with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Bears quarterback Bryce Petty, who has thrown 30 touchdowns against two interceptions while rushing for 11 scores, ranks second in pass efficiency.

2. Both teams are making their first appearance in a BCS bowl. Baylor had national championship aspirations until getting blitzed at Oklahoma State 49-17 on Nov. 23, while Central Florida finished the season on an eight-game win streak to earn the American Athletic Conference’s automatic BCS bid.

3. While Central Florida boasts an outstanding running back duo in Storm Johnson (1,015 yards, 14 total touchdowns, 5.3 yards per carry, 29 catches) and William Stanback (six rushing scores), Baylor features a dangerous trio in Lache Seastrunk (1,060 yards, 11 rushing TDs), Shock Linwood (862, eight) and Glasco Martin (490, six). Seastrunk missed nearly three games with a groin injury but returned Nov. 30, running for 172 yards in season-ending victories over Texas Christian and Texas.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Baylor opened -16.5. The total is up to 69.5 from the opening 68.

WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Under is 4-1 in Knights last five games overall.
* Over is 8-1 in Bears last nine non-conference games.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (11-1, 8-0 American Athletic Conference): The Knights rank 13th nationally in points allowed (19.6) and are led defensively by linebacker Terrance Plummer, who has 96 tackles, eight tackles for loss, two sacks, two interceptions and six pass breakups. Central Florida posted another 11-win season as recently as 2010 and has won its last two bowl games after losing its first three. But the Knights looked far from dominant down the stretch, squeaking by South Florida and Southern Methodist by a combined seven points.

ABOUT BAYLOR (11-1, 8-1 Big 12): The Bears won’t have lightning-fast wide receiver Tevin Reese, who averaged 25 yards per catch and hauled in eight touchdowns before dislocating his wrist, but Antwan Goodley (1,319 receiving yards, 13 TDs) and Levi Norwood (670, seven) also are thriving in coach Art Briles’ exciting scheme. Baylor averaged 51 more yards than any other team and scored at least 59 points seven times. The Bears, 10-9 in bowl games, rank 19th nationally in points allowed (21.2).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL Winter Classic: What bettors need to know

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings (-125, 5)

The "Big House" will be filled to the brim on New Year's Day as the Detroit Red Wings host the Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL's Winter Classic at Michigan Stadium. With an expected record crowd in upwards of 106,000 at the outdoor stadium, the sputtering Original Six foes will likely have a snowy backdrop to the latest installment of their long-standing rivalry. The same stadium also witnessed the highest recorded attendance in ice hockey history when 104,173 people watched as Michigan cruised to a 5-0 triumph over rival Michigan State on Dec. 11, 2010.

While many are coming to see a show, both Eastern Conference representatives have struggled as of late - Toronto has lost seven of its last 11 (4-5-2) while Detroit has dropped eight in that span (3-6-2). Despite his team's struggles, Maple Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf has every reason to smile after signing a seven-year contract extension worth $49 million on Tuesday. "It was an easy decision for me to stay here and be a part of the Toronto Maple Leafs," the 28-year-old defenseman said with wife/actress Elisha Cuthbert in tow. "I think we're building something special."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, NBC, CBC, RDS

ABOUT THE MAPLE LEAFS (20-16-5): Phil Kessel scored twice to reach the 20-goal plateau for the sixth straight season as Toronto skated to a 5-2 victory over reeling Carolina on Sunday. The 26-year-old Wisconsin native has recorded back-to-back multi-point performances and collected four goals and four assists in seven career contests versus Detroit. Phaneuf, who scored against the Hurricanes, also tallied in Toronto's 5-4 shootout loss to Detroit on Dec. 21.

ABOUT THE RED WINGS (18-14-9): While Canada and the European nations will wait until Jan. 7 to announce their Olympic rosters, the United States will do so immediately following the Winter Classic. Although the Detroit Free Press already reported that Jimmy Howard will join Los Angeles' Jonathan Quick and Buffalo's Ryan Miller as goaltenders for Team USA, the Detroit netminder officially will learn his fate mere moments after the contest. Russian star Pavel Datsyuk scored in the first meeting versus the Maple Leafs and also tallied in a 6-4 loss to Nashville on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Maple Leafs are 1-10 in their last 11 road games.
* Over is 7-1 in Maple Leafs last eight games following a win.

OVERTIME:

1. Wednesday's crowd is expected to dwarf the largest attendance for an NHL game (71,217), which occurred during the 2008 Winter Classic at the home stadium of the Buffalo Bills.

2. Detroit RW Daniel Alfredsson scored the shootout-winning goal on Dec. 21. The veteran tested his balky back on Tuesday but left his availability in doubt as he exited without speaking to reporters.

3. Toronto LW James Van Riemsdyk, who is expected to join Kessel on Team USA, has collected three assists in his last four games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Arizona (-7) on Tuesday and likes Georgia on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1215 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You "Total Domination" for Wednesday, January 1st
2014 Gator Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Nebraska/Georgia under 60

2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
UNLV/North Texas over 54

2014 Capitol One Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Wisconsin/South Carolina under 51

2014 Outback Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Iowa/LSU over 49

2014 Rose Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Michigan State/Stanford over 42 1/2

2014 Fiesta Bowl Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Central Florida/Baylor under 70


Wednesday Night Pro Basketball Scoreboard-Scorcher!!!!!
Philadelphia/Denver over 211

NBA Best Bets
Dallas/Washington under 205
Indiana/Toronto under 194 1/2
New Orleans/Minnesota over 214
Charlotte/LA Clippers under 196
Best of Luck and Thank You!!!!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartans dealt big blow with Bullough suspension

Michigan State’s vaunted defense – arguably the best in the nation – was dealt a big blow Thursday when coach Mark Dantonio announced that senior middle linebacker Max Bullough would be suspended from the Rose Bowl meeting against Stanford.

Bullough is responsible for making the calls on a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (247.8 ypg), No. 1 in rushing yards allowed (80.5 ypg) and No. 4 in points allowed (12.4 ppg).

Stanford opened as a 3-point favorite, and the Cardinal have since been bet up to 6-point chalk, even before the suspension came down.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

3 Unit Play. #252 Take South Carolina Gamecocks +1.5 over Wisconsin Badgers (Capital One Bowl, Wednesday, 1/1 1 pm ABC) I just am not a fan of Badger QB Joel Stave. These are very similar teams in a lot of respects, but Connor Shaw gives South Carolina a big edge at quarterback.

3 Unit Play. #255 Take Michigan State Spartans +6 over Stanford Cardinal (Rose Bowl, Wednesday, 1/1, 5 pm ESPN) Mag 7 Game. This is one of the few BCS Bowl games besides the Championship Game that people are excited for. We used Michigan State last year as our Bowl Game of the Year and will use them again as another strong play this season. Stanford has some great wins on the season, but their defense is better equipped to stop spread teams, and Sparty would certainly not be considered a spread team. Stanford has embarrassing losses to USC and Utah, and do not expect them to be able to run through this Spartan defense. Stanford plays conservative on offense, and thus I see this game going like their Rose Bowl game with Wisconsin last year. Michigan State is a much better team than Wisconsin was last year, yet the Cardinal struggled to score and could never put them away. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral-site games. This will be a field goal game, and we will cover with whoever comes out on

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PREDICTION MACHINE

Against the Spread Picks

253 IOWA vs LSU 7.5 -4.7 54.9% $26
251 WISC vs SC -1 4.2 54.7% $24
247 NEB vs UGA 9 -6.2 54.1% $18
258 BAYLOR vs UCF -16.5 19.9 53.8% $15
249 UNLV vs NORTX 6.5 -4.3 53.5% $12
256 MSU vs STAN 4.5 -3.6 51.6% $0

Straight-Up Picks

258 BAYLOR vs UCF 43.9 24.0 77.1%
248 UGA vs NEB 34.9 28.7 59.6%
254 LSU vs IOWA 25.7 21.0 58.3%
250 NORTX vs UNLV 28.3 24.0 57.6%
251 WISC vs SC 29.9 25.7 56.7%
255 STAN vs MSU 22.4 18.8 56.6%

Over/Under Picks

252 WISC vs. SC 49.5 55.6 Over 58.9% $68
250 UNLV vs. NORTX 56 52.3 Under 54.9% $26
248 NEB vs. UGA 60.5 63.6 Over 53.9% $16
254 IOWA vs. LSU 49 46.6 Under 53.8% $15
258 UCF vs. BAYLOR 71 67.8 Under 53.5% $12
256 STAN vs. MSU 41 41.2 Over 50.4% $0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Canucks won ten of their last thirteen games.

Cold teams
-- Detroit lost eight of its last 11 games. Maple Leafs lost ten of their last eleven road games.
-- Lightning lost last two games, but won last three on road.

Totals
-- Last four Detroit-Toronto games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Tampa Bay games.

Series records
-- Toronto is 3-2 in last five games vs Detroit; this game is outdoors in Ann Arbor.
-- Lightning-Canucks split last six meetings (1-2 at each other's rinks).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

ALL Free Plays are 1148-877 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years

Free winner THURS Pacers -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Nebraska +9 over Georgia
(System Record: 51-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 51-47-1

Hockey Crusher
Detroit Red Wings -127 over Toronto MapleLeafs
(System Record: 50-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 50-28-1

Basketball Crusher
Colorado State +4.5 over San Diego State
(System Record: 30-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 30-34-1

Soccer Crusher
Manchester United + Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 3
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 500-18, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 500-434-73

Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today...


Hockey
Vancouver Canucks -150 over Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning + Vancouver Canucks OVER 5
Toronto Maple Leafs + Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5


Basketball
Evansville +7.5 over Drake
Utah State -9 over Air Force
Boston College +11 over Harvard

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Baylor Ist Half -9

Wisconsin under 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Bowl Betting Tips: New Year’s Day Games
By Marc Lawrence

Let’s take a look at what’s trending this New Year’s Day bowl card. All ATS records extracted form the 2013 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report.

Bowling For Dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends that have occurred inside each of the five major bowl games on tap New Year’s Day…

• Heart Of Dallas Bowl: the favorite is 2-1 ATS and the OVER is 2-1 in this bowl game since its inception.

• Capital One Bowl: the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five years and 6-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: the favorite has cashed each of the last three years, snapping a previous four year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: the favorite is 2-4 ATS the last six years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: of the 8 ATS dog wins six have been in straight up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 7-1 SUATS the last eight games versus Big 10 opponents.

Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Good numbers: ACC bowl teams as dogs off a SU loss (Clemson) are 18-5-1 ATS, with Boston College and Duke results from 12/31 pending… Big 10 bowl teams off a double-digit SU win (Iowa and Michigan State) are 10-3 ATS… Big 12 bowl favorites of 8 or more points (Baylor) are 5-1 ATS… PAC 12 bowl teams off back-to-back SU wins (Stanford) are 7-1 ATS.

Bad Numbers: SEC bowl favorites of 8 or more points who allowed 35 or more points in their last game (Georgia) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big 10 bowl teams who allowed 35 or more points in their last games (Nebraska) are 2-11 ATS.

Coach Me Up

• Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is 6-2 ATS as a bowl dog, and 3-1 SUATS vs. SEC opponents.

• LSU’s Les Miles is 4-1 SUATS In bowl games vs. .818 or less opponents.

• Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio is 12-3 ATS away vs. an opponent off a SUATS win.

• South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier is 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen is 18-3-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents.

My Favorite Martian

Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 75-53 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 32-14 ATS.

Georgia and North Texas look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.

New Resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether UNLV maintains status quo today.

The Rebels are 10-15 SU and 16-6 ATS at home under head coach Bobby Hauck. They are 3-22 SU and 7-17 ATS away from Vegas.

Stat Of The Day

Central Florida is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents in its school history.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps
CFB
Michigan St vs Stanford
Michigan State comes off their Big 10 Championship to visit Stanford in the 100th Rose Bowl,
which is the first trip there for the Spartans in 26 years. This is going to be a unique matchup as
Stanford will try and mix it up offensively against one of the very best defensive units in the
country. The Spartans will be without senior LB Max Bullough, who was suspended Wednesday for
violating team rules. Bullough was third-team All-America and first-team All-Big Ten. Their defense
is ranked number one in the nation at 248.2 yards allowed per game, including an FBS-low 80.8 on
the ground. Stanford won their first Rose Bowl in 40 years when they beat Wisconsin 20-14 last
year and now they are back for a repeat performance. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games
when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. We think this will be a
very tight affair come late in the fourth quarter and we like the Spartans catching the points. The
Sharps say...
3 UNITS - MICHIGAN STATE (+7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Nevada at San Jose State

The Wolf Pack travel to San Jose State tonight to face a Spartans team that is coming off an 87-59 win over Pacifica College and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a victory of more than 20 points in the previous game. Nevada is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolf Pack favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 711-712: Loyola-Chicago at Indiana State (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 46.580; Indiana State 63.606 Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 17 Vegas Line: Indiana State by 14 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-14 1/2)

Game 713-714: UNLV at Fresno State (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 62.118; Fresno State 61.522 Dunkel Line: UNLV by 1 Vegas Line: UNLV by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+4 1/2)

Game 715-716: Boston College at Harvard (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 55.249; Harvard 63.254 Dunkel Line: Harvard by 8 Vegas Line: Harvard by 11 Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+11)

Game 717-718: SMU at Cincinnati (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: SMU 61.616; Cincinnati 73.432 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 12 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6)

Game 719-720: Old Dominion at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 49.203; William & Mary 57.805 Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: William & Mary by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-3 1/2)

Game 721-722: Utah State at Air Force (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 58.982; Air Force 54.149 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 5 Vegas Line: Utah State by 9 Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+9)

Game 723-724: Evansville at Drake (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 56.040; Drake 61.159 Dunkel Line: Drake by 5 Vegas Line: Drake by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+7 1/2)

Game 725-726: Bradley at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 48.395; Northern Iowa 63.359 Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 15 Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-11 1/2)

Game 727-728: Temple at Rutgers (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Temple 64.832; Rutgers 54.656 Dunkel Line: Temple by 10 Vegas Line: Temple by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Temple (-1 1/2)

Game 729-730: San Diego State at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 66.712; Colorado State 66.536 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+4 1/2)

Game 731-732: Nevada at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 54.888; San Jose State 50.398 Dunkel Line: Nevada by 4 1/2 Vegas Line: Nevada by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1 1/2)

Game 733-734: College of Charleston at Davidson (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 48.729; Davidson 58.788 Dunkel Line: Davidson by 10 Vegas Line: Davidson by 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-5 1/2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aaron's Analysis

256 Stanford Cardinal minus 6 over Michigan State Spartans

The #5 Stanford Cardinal (11-2) take on the #4 Michigan State Spartans (12-1) in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day in Pasadena. The Cardinal are making their fourth straight BCS bowl appearance. They are coming off of a dominating 38-14 victory over conference powerhouse Arizona State in the Pac 12 Championship Game, outgaining them in the process 517-311. As for the Spartans, they've won nine straight games, capped off by a 34-24 upset victory over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. Both of these teams are similar, as both rely upon a solid ground game and dominating defense. Michigan State is ranked #4 in the nation in points allowed per game (12.7), while Stanford ranks #10 (18.6). The Cardinal have been running the ball well all season, ranking #23 in the nation with an average of 210.9 yards per game. Over the last five games, however, they've been doing even better, as that average jumps to 234.2. Over the last seven games, Cardinal back Tyler Gaffney has rushed for an average of 149.7 yards per game. On the season, Gaffney has compiled 1,618 rushing yards and an amazing 20 TDs to go along with another 88 yards and 1 TD receiving. He should be able to find success even versus the likes of the Michigan State rush defense. Despite allowing just 80.8 yards per game on the ground (#1), the Spartan rush defense has shown vulnerability in recent weeks. Over their last four games, they've given up an average of 164.8 yards per game, most recently allowing the Ohio State Buckeyes to rush for 273 yards. In addition to Gaffney, Anthony Wilkerson is also a competent back, as he has added 391 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs this season. The Spartan defense will have to do without senior linebacker Max Bullough in this one due to suspension, which is a major loss. As for the Cardinal passing game, there is no better game manager out there than QB Keith Hogan. With that being said, it's worth mentioning that Hogan has only had to put up the ball in the air an average of 22.5 times per game. Over the past three games, Hogan has led the Cardinal to a decent 284 passing yards per game. On the season Hogan has compiled 2,487 yards passing with an accurate 61.4% completions, to go along with a TD to INT ratio of 20 to 9 and a quarterback rating of 154.1. His mobility poses a threat to defenses, as he has rushed for 314 yards and 2 TDs. Although the Spartans have a decent pass defense, Hogan should be able to put forth a solid effort here. It can be interpreted that the Spartan pass defense appears solid statistically because Big 10 teams are known to be rush first, pass second teams. Prior to playing teams rather inept at passing at the end of season such as Ohio State and Minnesota, the Spartans allowed an average of 221.7 yards passing in a three game cluster to the likes of Michigan, Nebraska and Northwestern. Although Hogan may not throw the ball as much as other Pac 12 quarterbacks, he is able to successfully sneak in a pass or two here and there. When he does, his favorite target is receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery has caught 58 passes for 937 yards and 10 TDs, to go along with another 159 yards and 2 TDs rushing. In addition, Devon Cajuste (27 catches for 591 yards and 5 TDs) and Michael Rector (12 catches for 387 yards and 3 TDs) are also highly capable. The Spartan offense is rather inept, ranking #9 in the Big 10 with an average of 384.6 total yards per game. With QB Connor Cook, the Spartans rank just #89 in the nation passing the ball with an average of 202.5 yards per game. Although it's fair to say that number closely resembles the 202.2 for Stanford, the Cardinal have nearly a thirty yard edge over the Spartans when it comes to rushing yards per game, at 210.9-182.2. The Cardinal defense has been very stingy versus the rush lately, allowing an average of just 64.4 yards per game over their last seven contests, while allowing a solid 91.2 for the season. Spartan 1,000 yard rusher Jeremy Langford should struggle versus the dominating defense of the Cardinal. An intangible to note is the apparent disparity between the Pac 12 and Big 10 conferences, as since 2001 the Pac 12 has a 10-1 record over the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. Gaffney should be able to run the ball effectively here, and combined with the passing efforts of Hogan and Montgomery the Cardinal should be able to come away with a nice victory in this one.

CARDINAL 28-14 (3 Units)