NCAA Football Game Pick
SUNDAY, JANUARY 5
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16) Game 267-268: Arkansas State vs. Ball State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 85.546; Ball State 84.065
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Ball State by 9 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+9 1/2); Under
NFL Wildcard trends: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
By MARC LAWRENCE
Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:
Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games
New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs
San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games
San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs
Home Field Disadvantage
Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.
For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.
Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.
A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.
Division Downers
Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.
Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.
Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.
ATS Diabetes
Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.
Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.
So long 49ers.
In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.
The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.
Stat of the Week
The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.
Nelly's Greensheet:
Cinci over SD by 3
GB over SF by 3
Playbook:
Cinci over SD by 4
GB over SF by 3
Goldsheet:
Cinci 29 SD 16
SF 29 GB 22
PointWISE:
Cinci 37 SD 22
GB 31 SF 30
Football Jesus : packers + points
Today's NFL Picks
SUNDAY, JANUARY 5
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (1/1)Game 105-106: San Diego at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.817; Cincinnati 137.797
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7); UnderGame 107-108: San Francisco at Green Bay (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.597; Green Bay 140.991
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over
Marc Lawrence Never Lost NFL Wild Card Play Of The Year!
Packers
NFL
Wild Card Round
Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)—Hard to believe, but this is Chargers’ first game on artificial turf this season. Cincy won/covered all eight home games, which is hard to do, even covering last week when they had AFC North wrapped up; Bengals scored 34+ points in each of last five home games- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row but this is their first home playoff tilt since ’09. Lewis has done great job here, but hasn’t won playoff game; he has SoCal team visiting in frigid weather here- this is his best chance to get a postseason win. San Diego was 5-7 after bland 17-10 home loss to Cincy in Week 13, when Bengals gained 250 yards in second half, outrushed Chargers 164-91; Bolts then won last four games, upsetting Broncos on a Thursday night in Denver, beating two also-rans, then getting help from refs late in last week’s OT win over Chief team that sat 20 of 22 starters. San Diego has edge in QB, always a help. AFC #3 seed is 8-4 in this game over last 12 years. Five of last six Cincinnati games went over the total; five of Chargers’ last seven road games stayed under.
49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)—Since 2001, road teams favored in this round are 7-3 vs spread. Tough for California team to come east and play in bitter cold, which is forecast for this game. Rodgers returned after 8-week absence last week and led magical last-minute comeback over rival Bears to win division; Green Bay was 2-5-1 in his absence, with both wins by a point, including win at Dallas when they trailed 26-3 at half. 49ers won last five games to get here; they scored 9 or less points in three of four losses, not scoring a TD in second half in three of those games. SF was -6 in turnovers in their four losses, +18 in wins. Niners are 6-2 on road, 5-0 as home favorites this season. Green Bay is 6-2 this season when Rodgers starts, 3-0 at home, winning by 18-13-18 points. Pack opened season with 34-28 (+4) loss at Candlestick, when Niners gained 309 yards in second half, pulling away from 14-all halftime tie. #4 seed in NFC beat 5-seed four of last five years. This is 7th time these have met in playoffs since ’95. 49ers are better team from best division in NFL, but elements work against them here.
Berman
SD 23 CIN 21
SF 26 GB 20
Joe Benigno
CIn -7
SF -3
Evan Roberts
CIN -7
GB +3
Fezzik
Over 62 Ball St Ark St
Norm Hitzges
Last week: 13-13
Season: 224-199
NFL
San Francisco -2 1/2 Green Bay
San Francisco--Green Bay OVER 46 1/2
EZWINNERS
3* San Diego +6.5
3* San Francisco -2.5
Goodfella
3* SF ML
Stephen Nover
3* 49ers
Road team, Over the hot bet when NFL temperatures dip below freezing
By JASON LOGAN
The San Francisco 49ers will not only battle the Green Bay Packers and legions of Cheese Heads at Lambeau Field but also the brutal Wisconsin winter, which is forecasted to throw temperatures as low as zero degrees at the Californian visitors Sunday night.
Those bone-chilling temperatures could have many bettors leaning toward the acclimated home team (Packers +2.5) and the Under (45.5) Sunday night. However, recent history has shown the exact opposite when handicapping cold weather contests.
Home teams in games played in 19 degrees or below are 17-16-1 SU but just 13-22-0 ATS since 2004 – covering only 37 percent of the time. Drop that temperature to single digits and hosts are 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in that span. Lambeau Field has been the venue for three of those five cold-weather contests, with the Packers going 1-2 and 0-3 ATS.
Green Bay lost to New York, 23-20, as a 7.5-point home favorite in the 2008 NFC Championship with temperatures dipping to -1 degree. It fell 24-21 to the Houston Texans as 7-point home chalk on Dec. 7, 2008 in 3 degree weather, and beat the Atlanta Falcons 22-21 but failed to cover the 3.5-point spread in 9 degree temperatures at Lambeau in Week 14 of this season.
As for betting the NFL totals in cold weather games, the chilly surroundings haven’t cooled down offenses. Games played in 19 degrees or below have produced a 23-11-1 Over/Under record (67 percent Over) since 2004, with single-digit temperature contests coming out with a 2-3 O/U mark.
Green Bay isn’t the only place feeling the cold this Wild Card Weekend. The Philadelphia Eagles play host to the New Orleans Saints with the forecast at Lincoln Financial Field calling for a low of 27 degrees. And the Cincinnati Bengals welcome the San Diego Chargers to Paul Brown Stadium, where the thermometer is expected to teeter on the freezing point with a 100 percent chance of snow.
In games played below freezing – 31 degrees or less – home teams are 85-55-1 SU and 69-71-1 ATS since 2004. The biggest eyebrow raiser is the Over/Under mark in these cold weather matchups, with those contests finishing with a 84-54-3 O/U count – 60.6 percent to the Over.
The total in Philadelphia is set at 53.5 points, the number in Cincinnati is posted at 45.5, and the Over/Under in Green Bay is sitting at 45.5.
The NFC Wild Card weather in Green Bay should rank among the coldest NFL games ever and could finish as the second-coldest NFL game behind the infamous 1967 “Ice Bowl” between Green Bay and Dallas in which temperatures fell 13 degrees below zero.
Where the action is: Sunday's Wild Card line moves
The NFL Playoffs continue with two huge matchups which feature a pair of California teams traveling to some cold-climate cities Sunday. The Cincinnati Bengals host the San Diego Chargers while the San Francisco 49ers travel to Wisconsin to face the Green Bay Packers.
We talk to an oddsmaker from betdsi about all the betting action coming in on both of these postseason showdowns:
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: -7.5, Move: -6.5
This line has been on both sides of the key of a touchdown at some markets, with sharp money influencing the adjustments just minutes after odds opened. Bettors are liking the home team in this one as the Bengals were a force at home all season, posting perfect 8-0 records both SU and ATS.
"This has been the only matchup that has a side being backed by sharp action," the oddsmaker tells Covers. "Smart money is backing Cincinnati at the -6.5 (-115) value. Bet count is 3-to-1 in favor of Cincy and money wagered is about 2-to-1. Teaser action has been heavily focused on the Bengals as well, and a San Diego win would be the largest teaser swing of the weekend."
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - Open: 48, Move: 45.5
The weather at Lambeau Field is expected to be frigid and the total has sharp and public bettors divided. Sharp action came in on the Under when the number was posted, but public money has been liking the Over.
"This has been the most bet game of the wildcard playoff matchups this weekend and by far has been the biggest public side," the oddsmaker said. "Sharp bettors have hit the total on the Under 48 value which is now at 45.5. The public is on the Over which is helping to keep the books balanced here. Action overall is very balanced for a game that will polarize bettors based on fan base and geo-location."
The 49ers opened as 2.5-point road faves at most outlets with that line still holding firm since open.
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