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Al DeMarco
15 Dime Wildcard Release
49ers
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BANKROLL SPORTS
10* San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (NFL)
5* San Diego Chargers +7 (NFL)
4* Ball State Cardinals -7 (CFB)
3* Chargers @ Bengals Over 46 (NFL)
2* Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (NBA)
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Northcoast
No late phones today.
Top opinions
Cincy -7
Arkansas st +7
Under cincy
Reg opinions
Under ark st
Under sf/gb
GB +3
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Ross Benjamin
10* 49ers -2.5
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Nelly
San Diego Chargers
Green Bay Packers
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Mark Franco
Bengals -6.5
49ers -2.5
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ArlonSports
cbb
1* Wisconsin -6
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Irish Mike Moran
SDG+7(-105)
SF-2.5(3x)
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Bryan Leonard | NFL Side
pick
107 SFX -2.5 (-125) 5dimes vs 108 GBP
Analysis: 107 San Francisco at Green Bay
Here we have two teams on the complete opposites when being compared by strength of schedule. The 49ers had one of the strongest slates in the league while Green Bay faced one of the easiest. The Packers toughest game of the year was the opener against these 49ers. After that they played just two other teams that made the playoffs, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined margin of 24 points. Despite the easy slate of games the Packers could only out gain the opposition 6.0 to 5.9 yards per play. We are well aware of the Aaron Rodgers injury situation but those numbers are hard to ignore, yet I haven't seen the mainstream media talking much about them. That is why we find value on what we consider the far better team.
San Francisco was 12-4 in the regular season despite playing twice as many playoff opponents than the Packers. In fact, the only losses on the season came against playoff foes. Unlike the Packers, the 49ers out gained the opposition 5.4 to 5.0 yards per play. This despite running the ball 53% of the time, which makes the ypp numbers even more impressive. 5.4 ypp despite facing the defenses of Seattle and Arizona twice. Because San Francisco traded away Alex Smith before the season we felt the team was very reluctant to put Colin Kaepernick in peril by having him run the ball. The brass knew they could survive the regular season with conservative play calling and a sound defense. But now that the playoffs have arrived we wouldn't be surprised to see the 49er offensive playbook opened up.
Many will give an edge in this game to the Packers because of the frigid conditions, saying Green Bay is used to playing in these conditions because of where they live. We don't buy into that. San Francisco has one of the toughest environments to play in with a swirling wind and cold conditions of their own. Besides the most important offensive player on the team played his college ball in Reno Nevada. The 49ers are the better team in just about every facet except quarterback and Rodgers is one game removed from the injury list. The freezing conditions can't be good for his recently healed collar bone. One hit and this game could be a complete domination.
PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
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MTI Sports
4.5-Star San Diego at Cincinnati OVER 46
These two met four weeks ago and the Bengals won 17-10 in San Diego. The Bengals were laying a point in that game, but here they are a TD favorite. The score in their first meeting is keeping this line very reasonable, but on the road, the Chargers will have to take it to the Bengals if they are going to win and this should get it over this number.
San Diego is off a 27-24 overtime win over the Chiefs in which they had 186 rushing yards and Philip Rivers had three TD passes to three different receivers - one of whom was Antonio Gates. This is an OVER indicator, as the Chargers are 11-0 OU the week following a win in which Antonio Gates caught a TD pass, as long as he had fewer than ten receptions. The SDQL text is:
0=20081201
Also, San Diego is 8-0 OU on the road after a game in which they had at least 150 yards rushing, going over the total by an average of 12.6 ppg. This was last active in week 12 vs the Chiefs and the Chargers won 41-38 with the OU line at 43.
team=Chargers and A and p:RY>=150 and date>=20090101
The Bengals are VERY confident. They have faith in Dalton and will not rein him in here. We have a couple of trends involving wide receivers working here. The Bengals are 7-0 OU (+12.1 ppg) the week after a win in which Mohamed Sanu did not have a 20-plus yard reception and 6-0 OU (+13.50 ppg) after a game in which AJ Green caught a touchdown pass.
The weather here is indeed an issue, which is why this play was not released last night. The radar this morning indicates that the temperature during the game will be in the forties and there will be scattered showers that will increase throughout the afternoon. If this game was a later kickoff, I would be more concerned.
Yesterday's forecast said, "driving, freezing sleet," so the outlook has improved considerably.
In the Bengals' last five home games, they scored 49, 41, 42, 42 and 34 points. The Chargers cannot be thinking they are going to win this one with 20 points and simply cannot afford to be conservative on offense.
Yesterday's games are a compelling reminder that no lead is safe in the playoffs and the team with the lead will not be trying to burn clock until it is very late. The OVER is the play.
MTi's FORECAST: CINCINNATI 31 San Diego 27
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JOE GAVAZZI FOOTBALL
4% Bengals -6.6
3% Packers +3
4% Arkansas St +7.5
3% Ball St/ Ark St OVer 63
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MTI Sports
4-Star GREEN BAY +3 over San Francisco
We'll start the reasoning with a very compelling trend involving the fact that the 49ers are 12-4 and the Packers are 8-7-1. The reason why this one is in Green Bay rather than San Francisco is that the 49ers were the Wildcard behind the 13-3 Seahawks and the Packers were a division winner.
In the NFL playoffs, home teams with fewer wins than their opponent are a 18-8-1 ATS in the history of our database - including 8-2 straight up and 8-2 ATS recently. Even more compelling is the fact that home teams with at least three fewer wins on the season are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and these are worth checking out with this SDQL text:
playoffs=1 and o:wins - wins >= 3 and H
The four games include: the Patriots' 20-17 win over the Rams as a 14-point dog in the 2001 Super Bowl, the Chargers 23-17 win over the Colts in 2009, the 8-8 Seahawks huge 41-36 upset over the Saints as a double-digit dog in 2010 and The Broncos' 29-23 win over the Steelers as an 8.5-point dog led by Tim Tebow in 2012.
Teams in this spot have covered by an average of 13.4 ppg.
Fitting in perfectly here is the fact that the Packers themselves are 6-0 ATS versus any team with more wins after playing on the road, covering by an average of 15.3 ppg. Two of these wins came in the playoffs, as you can see by running this SDQL text:
team=Packers and o:wins>wins and p:A and date>=20101219
It is also worth mentioning that the Packers are 9-0 ATS at home after a road game in which fullback John Kuhn did not catch a pass, covering by an average of 16.6 ppg. The SDQL text is:
H and Packers:John Kuhn
:receptions=0 and p:A and date>=20091201
Green Bay is 0-4 ATS at home after a road game in which John Kuhn DID catch a pass.
The 49ers have a lot of good numbers, and it would be easy to make a case for them by quoting stats. However, but a closer inspection reveals major flaws. San Francisco is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS on the road after a road win in which they had at least one TD pass. The SDQL text is:
team=Fortyniners and A and p:AW and p:PTD>0 and date>=20020101
In their last four in this spot, they scored 14, 16, 13 and 13 points respectively.
In their last two games, the Niners allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 348 yards and Carson Palmer to throw for 407 yards but won them both because they benefitted for a 2-0 takeaway margin in each. This is not a good sign. The Niners are 0-11 ATS on the road after a win in which they allowed at least 310 passing yards and a completion percentage of less than 75%. The SDQL text is:
team=Fortyniners and A and po:PY>=310 and p:W and po:CP<75 and date>=19981201
Note that the Niners are 0-7 SU their last seven and they scored 6, 3, 16, 14, 7, 13, and 3 points in these seven games respectively, the last of which was their 29-3 loss to the Seahawks this season. On the average, they have fallen short of the linesmakers' expectations by an average of MORE than two touchdowns. Brutal.
It certainly can be argued that the 49ers are better on paper, but this game isn't being played on paper, it is being played in Green Bay. Grab the three points.
MTi's FORECAST: GREEN BAY 23 San Francisco 20
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Best Weekend Wagers with Weekend Warrior January 05, 2014 6:26 AM by Mark Mayer
NHL Hockey
60 Chicago Blackhawks -150: The Blackhawks were idle Saturday and benefit from San Jose having played the night before.
Results NHL (0-0-0) Overall Record: 10-6-0
NFL Football Playoffs
105 San Diego Chargers / Cincinnati Bengals OVER 46: Bengals were 8-0 both SU/ATS and far more explosive on offense compared to on the road. Chargers QB Philip Rivers in top form.
107 San Francisco 49ers / Green Bay Packers UNDER 46: Ice Bowl II with temperatures predicted to be below zero by game time. Expect this to be decided in the trenches.
Results NFL (Sat 0-2-0) Overall Record: 26-33-1
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PICK ADDICT
1* NFL [106] Cincinnati Bengals -7
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NBA Basketball Play of the Day January 05, 2014 6:23 AM by GT Staff
Boston Celtics +10 at Oklahoma City Thunder at 4:05 p.m. PST
The Celtics have seen four of their last five games decided by 3 points or less. Oklahoma City on second of back to back and may be fatigued flying back home. Meanwhile Boston rested.
809 Boston Celtics +10
Results 2013-14 NBA (Sat.1-0-0) Overall Record: 7-6-0
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GamingToday's Consensus Picks January 05, 2014 6:14 AM by GT Staff
NFL Football Playoffs
106 Cincinnati Bengals -7: The Chargers make the cross country trip into cold Cincy were the Bengals have won and covered all eight of their home games this year and QB Andy Dalton is playing with confidence.
108 Green Bay Packers +3: Somehow the Pack got back into the playoffs winning their last game with a miracle late TD by Rodgers who finally came back. Talk about cold, well this one will be a frozen tundra something the Niners are not use to.
Results 2013-14 NFL (0-2-0) Overall Record: 63-58-7
NBA Basketball
810 Oklahoma City Thunder -9½: We will rely on Parry’s Power Guide as he has the Thunder rolling over the Celtics in this game by more than 20 points.
812 Dallas Mavericks -6½: The Power Guide has the Mavs as a double digit winner.
814 Los Angeles Lakers +1: The last of the three Power Guide plays will be on the Lakers who the Guide has as the straight up winner by more the six points.
Results 2013-14 NBA (0-0-0) Overall Record: 39-31-4
NHL Hockey
54 Carolina Hurricanes -135: Carolina at home sitting on a three game win streak, they look to make it four.
56 Anaheim Ducks -160: The Ducks have won two straight while the visiting Canucks have dropped three in a row.
Results 2013-14 NHL (0-0-0) Overall Record: 58-42-1
NCAA Basketball
827 Missouri State -2½: This is the Parry’s Power Guide play of the day in college hoops as the Guide has them 10 points better.
Results 2013-14 NCAA BK (Sat. 2-1-0) Overall Record: 33-25-0
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Cappersadvantage
CharlotteSports
6.5 Teaser: Cincy pK & SF +3.5
Cincy -6
Big E
ML Parlay - SF & Cincy
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CHRIS JORDAN
200 Bengals/Chargers over
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California Sports:
- 4* = Missouri State -4.5
- 4* = Boston U +1.5
- 3* = Northwestern +15
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01-05-2014, 11:38 AM
#100
Master Sports:
- 4* = Grizzlies +2.5
- 4* = Wake Forest +6
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