Norm Hitzges
SINGLE PLAYS
San Francisco -1 Carolina
San Francisco--Carolina - UNDER 42
Denver--San Diego - OVER 54 1/2
JASON SHARPE
*** January Game of the Month ***
6 Unit Play Take #115 San Francisco -1 over Carolina (1:00pm est):
The San Francisco 49ers offense that we have seen in the post-season these last two years looks nothing like their regular season version of it. We seen a much more explosive 49ers offense, one that averaged almost 35 points per game last year during the playoffs while riding the arm and the legs of their young quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Though he had a decent season overall this year, you could tell early on that San Francisco's head coach Jim Harbaugh (a former quarterback himself) didn't want to put the young qb at risk of an injury during the regular season. Last weekend we saw again that the 49ers were saving the best Kaepernick for the post-season.
San Francisco is probably the most complete team in the NFL as they are solid on both the offense and defensive lines. They also have strong special teams units and are extremely well coached with arguably the fewest weaknesses of any team in the NFL. The one area of concern for them has to be with their passing game but that now looks to have gone up another level with the return of wide receiver Michael Crabtree who has slowly been working himself back into shape after returning from an injury late this season. Add in the new and improved San Francisco offensive game plan focusing on Kaepernick's strengths and what you have is a 49ers offense that matches the rest of this very good team.
Carolina turned their season around after a 1-3 start to the year. This was a team who was looking like they would be firing their head coach but instead they ended the season with just one loss in their last twelve games. A lot of the credit goes to a defense that played at high levels for most of the year. They did seem to catch some breaks scheduling wise as they didn't face many of the top quarterbacks this season. In fact they only played five games this year versus teams with a winning record and went 3-2 in those contests. San Francisco on the other hand played eight such games going 4-4 overall.
They say championship teams turn it up in the playoffs. You could see the extra intensity last week on the San Francisco sidelines from head coach Jim Harbaugh, to quarterback Kaepernick and all the way down. This is a veteran group who expects to go on the road and win. The moment here in this one won't be too big for this team. With a line around pick'em that means all they have to do is find a way to win this game for us to cash our ticket. I am not sure I trust another team or coach more so than I trust the the 49ers and Harbaugh to take care of business.
Take San Francisco here.
Today's NFL Picks
SUNDAY, JANUARY 12
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (1/6)Game 115-116: San Francisco at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 139.663; Carolina 140.790
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+2); OverGame 117-118: San Diego at Denver (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 142.848; Denver 140.518
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 10; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+10); Under
Cappers Advantage
@big_east
1/12/14 Sunday
San Fran 49ers ML (-130) 2.6units
Alex Blasscyk
Blasscyk WINS
BW Play: 113 Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-120) *4 UNITS* (BetOnline)
BW Play: 113 Indianapolis Colts under 53 (-108) *4 UNITS* (5 Dimes)
BW Play: 115 S.F. 49ERS OVER 42 (-105) *5 UNITS* (5 Dimes)
BW Play: 115 S.F. 49ERS -1 (-115) *5 UNITS* (BetOnline)
BW Play: 117 San Diego Chargers OVER 54.5 (-110) *3 UNITS* (Bookmaker)
BW Play: 117 San Diego Chargers +10 (-110) *3 UNITS* (Bookmaker)
Goodfella
4* Playoff GOY 49ers ML
LA Syndicate
NFL Playoff Game of the Year - 49ers pk (-110)
H&H Sports
Triple Dime Panthers
Double Dime Chargers
EZWINNERS
5* 49ers -1
NFL Prop Shop: Divisional Weekend
By SEAN MURPHY
The postseason continues in the NFL with Divisional Weekend getting underway Saturday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:
Most passing yards
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
I'll take a shot with Andrew Luck at a healthy underdog price on Saturday.
Here's my thinking: I fully expect the Colts to be playing from behind for much of this game. That means we should see Luck airing it out early and often. I'm aware that the Colts want to be a run-first team, but this is an awfully tough spot to be hard-headed. Luck rallied the offense last Saturday, and I believe he'll be asked to do the same this week.
Take: Luck
Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
I have the ultimate respect for the Panthers defense, however, we've seen Colin Kaepernick take his game to another level in the playoffs time and time again, and I expect that to be the case again on Sunday afternoon.
Cam Newton has played on the big stage before (in SEC and BCS Championship Games), but the NFL playoffs are another animal. He'll be up against a 49ers defense that is playing 'angry' right now (credit that quote to former 49er and NFL Network analyst Eric Davis) - a unit that should be able to control a good, but not great receiving corps.
Take: Kaepernick
Most rushing yards
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)
I supported Frank Gore last Sunday against Green Bay, but I'm switching gears this week.
I believe we'll see the 49ers take a more pass-heavy approach against an aggressive Panthers defense on Sunday. Gore will get his share of carries, but I'm not sure he'll create a lot of 'splash' plays.
While DeAngelo Williams hasn't been all that consistent, he does boast big play potential and could rip off a couple of big runs if the 49ers come in a little too focused on Cam Newton.
Take: Williams
Most pass receptions
Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)
If this were a play on which receiver would have a bigger impact on the final result, I might be inclined to back Julius Thomas, as he likely has greater touchdown potential. However, when it comes to receptions, I'll go with Keenan Allen.
Allen was a virtual non-factor in last week's win over the Bengals, but that only serves to give us better line value here. The Chargers know that he needs to play a bigger role in the offense this Sunday if they're going to pull off another shocker in Denver. If they're playing from behind and Philip Rivers is forced to sling it all over the field, that suits our purposes even better.
Take: Allen
NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round
By JASON LOGAN
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Divisional Round:
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 41)
Niners’ momentum vs. Panthers’ bye week blues
As past playoff pushes have shown us, it’s the hot team – not the higher seed – that has the edge. And no team in football is hotter than the 49ers. Not even the icy temps at Lambeau Field could slow down San Francisco, which has won seven in a row (4-3 ATS). The 49ers are coming off a massive victory over Green Bay on a last-second field goal and are out to avenge a loss to Carolina earlier this season.
The Panthers built up a lot of momentum in the final weeks of the season, winning three straight and 11 of their final 12 games to grab the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. But many are asking if Carolina has peaked and whether taking a week off will cool the Panthers’ play. Carolina is no fan of the bye week – playoff or regular season. The Panthers are 0-3 SU and ATS coming off the bye week under coach Ron Rivera and were knocked out of the playoffs in 2008 after a 12-4 season earned them a first-round break, losing 33-13 as 9.5-point favorites to Arizona in the Divisional Round.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54)
Chargers’ third-down success vs. Broncos’ third-down defense
The Bolts have already laid the blueprint for beating the Broncos, knocking off Denver 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs in Week 15. San Diego controlled the tempo and dominated time of possession in that game, burning up 38:49 to Denver’s 21:11. A big part of that win – and the Chargers’ overall success – is the team’s ability to keep the chains moving on third down. San Diego ranks tops in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, picking up the first 48.17 percent of the time, and went 6 for 12 on third downs in the win over Denver.
The Broncos defense has been the elephant in the room all season. Denver’s stop unit has been burned for big numbers and is missing one of its key cogs in LB Von Miller, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos were in the middle of the road in terms of third-down defense, limiting opponents to a 38.07 conversion percentage (16th), but can’t afford to keep the Bolts on the field Sunday. San Diego did a great job holding on to the ball and removing Peyton Manning and the Denver offense from the equation in Week 15.
NFL Divisional betting preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTSINTERACTION
Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews this weekend’s NFL playoff action.
All odds current as of 11 a.m. ET, Jan. 9.
Sunday, Jan. 12
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+1, 42)
Now we’ll get to see what the Panthers are made of. They come into this game as the hottest team in the league with just one loss on their record after starting the season 1-3. They also dropped the 49ers 10-9 in San Francisco back in Week 10, sacking quarterback Colin Kaepernick six times in the process. Still, the 49ers are coming on strong as well and earned a lot of toughness points last week by beating the Packers in frigid Lambeau Field. With a couple of big-play quarterbacks squaring off, this one might come down to who breaks the biggest play when his team needs it most.
Where the action is: This line is bouncing around all over the place. The Panthers opened as 2-point home dogs but the game then moved to a pick ‘em. Now Carolina sits as a 1-point underdog and the total has dropped from 43 at the open to 42. About 61 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are siding with San Francisco.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 54)
A lot of bettors made a pile of money this year betting the Broncos and the over, but now that we’re in the playoffs, betting habits have changed. San Diego has already beaten Denver once this season and has won five straight, covering the number in four of those contests. That alone seems to be enough to sway a good portion of our betting public, even with Peyton Manning on the other side. The Broncos remain +237 Super Bowl favorites.
Where the action is: This number opened at Denver -10 and then dipped to -9.5 not long after. The total has dropped from 55 to 54. As of noon Thursday, 65 percent of our bets are coming in on the underdog Chargers at +9.5.
NFL mid-week line moves: NFC Divisional Round action report
By JASON LOGAN
Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.
We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s NFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5, Move: +1
Oddsmakers were on the fence about this NFC Divisional battle, setting Sunday’s game at a pick’em. Carolina edged San Francisco 10-9 on the road back in Week 10 but early money pounced on the red-hot Niners, driving the spread as high as Carolina +2.5 before Panthers money took the home team plus the points.
“I think our sharps realized this game was never going to get to 49ers -3 – like it did versus the Packers - and they decided to take the +2.5 while it was still there,” says Stewart. “This is a situation where sharps and the public are on opposite sides. So far 75 percent of the money is on the 49ers but we very much like our position and we’ll have no problem going into this game needing the dog.”
The total for Sunday’s game has come down as much as one point from 43 to 42 at some books. Early money sided with the Over at CarbonSports.ag, but sharp action forced the books hand, dropping the number to 42.5. The extended forecast for Carolina is calling for 27 percent chance of rain with winds getting up to 7 mph.
“I could see us eventually going to 42 as these are two very good defensive teams but more importantly, both offenses like to run the ball and eat up the clock,” says Stewart. “We’ve booked this total so far dead even so at this time, no need to move this total unless of course we see more sharp action betting us Under.”
NFL mid-week line moves: AFC Divisional Round action report
By JASON LOGAN
Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.
We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s AFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: -10.5, Move: -9
This will be the third meeting between the Bolts and the Broncos this season, with the teams splitting wins on the road. Early sharp money marched in on San Diego and forced an initial move to Denver -9.5 and the public followed suit, jumping on the upstart Chargers. That has kept books busy juggling the juice on this AFC West rematch. CarbonSports.ag is currently dealing San Diego +9.5 (-120).
“At this point, we’re reluctant to go to Broncos -9 or even down to -8.5, because that would allow for all our bettors to tease the Broncos down to below the key number of three and that’s a concern for us,” says Stewart, who mentions that seven of a possible eight outcomes on teasers hit during the Wild Card Weekend. “While we are concerned about going down to -9 or 8.5, if the straight action keeps backing the dog in this one we’ll eventually get there.”
As for Sunday’s AFC total, books hung the number high, with some markets posting the total at 56 points trying to protect from Broncos bettors who love to take their side and the Over. Under money has dropped the Over/Under as low as 54.5, as of Wednesday afternoon. The forecast for Denver is calling for a slight chance of snow and temperatures in the low 40s.
“So far, 60 percent of the early action is on the Under but that’s of little concern because I know by game time we’re going to need this game under as the public gets more involved over the weekend,” says Stewart. “Also, being the last game of the weekend, I have a feeling we’ll have a ton of parlay liability tied to the Over and that liability will outweigh any straight bet exposure."
Sports Reporter:
SF by 12 *Recommended play
Den by 4
Winning pts.
SF by 4
Den by 5
Goldsheet:
SF 22 Car 16
Den 27 SD 24
Power Plays:
No play Caro 22 SF 20
2* OVER in Den
PowerSweep:
2* Caro over SF
1* OVER in Den
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