I am liking costa with 3.5 points at close to evens. A couple of things:
Larkin has only fought two guys in the ufc that exclusively tried to strike with him. Brad tavares and chris camozzi. Tavares has some decent striking and he beat larkin. Camozzi has shitty striking and he lost to larkin. I had money on larkin innhis fight against camozzi and ill say that larkin made me nervous at some points with his under activity. I read that he has been trying to work on his activity level for this fight. No idea how that will work out.
On costa: he won bronze in the european amateur boxing championships in turkey. He tried to make the olympic team but missed it by a couple of points. This is from his ufc profile.
Heres my theory. If camozzi can tough it out and land shots on larkin shouldnt the striker far superior to camozzi be able to do the same? I read that costa has been training his wrestling quite a bit for this fight. Given that larkin usually needs range to get off on his kicks i think that costa could do very well with a boxing and wrestling gameplan.
Some more about costa. In almost every fight he has had in the ufc they have put him up against someone that has tried to wrestle him. This should be the first fight where its a pure striking battle.
Im not saying costa should be favored to win but i think the line should be closer to even.
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I think Silva will submit brown. Brown has always had a huge deficiency on the ground and I doubt he has really shored it up that much. I think he has just had favorable matchups combined with some good performances. Stopping Pyle before it hit the ground would be a good example. Silva is a beast on the ground and if he gets Brown there its most likely a wrap. The way he wrapped up that "inverted triangle armbar" on Jason High was amazing. His standup isn't bad either. If he stuns Brown he probably going to go for the sub right away. If he manages to take brown down he can sub him. I don't know what his wrestling is like but its another thing to consider. Lastly if Brown stuns him and follows him to the ground he could end up getting submitted. There are just too many ways to see Brown getting submitted.
Then again Matt Brown might just overwhelm him.
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Wow ok I just watched stun gun vs Silva and they were both gassed after five minutes. Brown should not be a dog.
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Anyone else leaning rafael natal? I think he will have an advantage in the standup. His jiu jitsu is better as well. My main concern is hermans wrestling.
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I can see the main event going either way. I'm mostly going to live bet this entire card although I have a few small two-fight parlays, mostly on the undercard and main card favorites excluding the main event. I also have a wager on Tumenov and Tumenov by Decision and a handful of props I like including Matt Brown by KO/TKO at +330.
I like some of the main card dogs at their odds, like Costa and Cruickshank.
I've noticed a lot of bettors on the internet are very high on Brown over Silva. I'm not seeing it. I think Silva justifies his line, or at least nearly so. The only people I've seen give Silva any trouble at all are grinding wrestlers, and that's not the style Brown is going to bring. I am concerned about Silva's late fight cardio, but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get to see it tested. I think Silva finishes him early.
I think Silva's striking is overrated. Brown can match him on the feet. I dont know the about the grappling. Silva might be able to take Brown down and sub him there. I put a decent size bet on Brown but he is coming off a bad back injury so not sure how he will show up.
I think Silva torches Brown.
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Wow i was all wrong. My bankroll is down to zero now.
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I had natal, koch, and main even doesnt go the distance.
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main event did not go the distance, edman
Me = wrongOriginally Posted by Luke
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Well, I should have listened to you about Silva's gas tank. That fight went about how I thought it would for half-a-round and then after that.... it sure as hell didn't.
He was completely done after Brown got up. I actually think the corner should have thrown in the towel; Silva was nothing but a punching bag after that. Apparently he was in pretty bad shape after the fight, too.
Almost all of my parlays busted with this crazy night of upsets but I hit some great prop bets at high odds, did good with live betting and most importantly Matt Brown came through in a big way. Very fun night of fights even with the limitation that Bookmaker had absolutely zero live betting tonight with no explanation whatsoever and even 5Dimes had live bets open only between rounds 1 & 2 in most of the televised fights, not between rounds 2 & 3!
UFN 40 Results
Brown wins by TKO/KO (+310) $20.00 for $62.00= $62.00
Cruickshank wins by TKO/KO (+700) $10.00 for $70.00= $70.00
Magny wins by 3 round decision (+450) $10.00 for $45.00= $45.00
Palelei by Submission (+750) $9.99 for $74.93= -$9.99
Cariaso wins by 3 round decision (+215) $15.00 for $32.25= $32.25
Tumenov wins by 3 round decision (+175) $10.00 for $17.50= -$10.00
Albert Tumenov (-195) vs Anthony Lapsley $48.75 for $25.00= $25.00
Parlays:
Lorenz Larkin (-235) + Erik Koch (-350) $40.00 for $33.31= -$40.00
Tim Means (-260) + Soa Palelei (-230) $45.00 for $44.40= -$45.00
Louis Smolka (-130) + Rafael Natal (-140) $40.00 for $81.32= -$40.00
Yan Cabral (-370) + Eddie Wineland (-425) $40.00 for $22.77= -$40.00
Nik Lentz (-370) + Justin Salas (-245) $30.00 for $23.66= $23.66
Live Bets:
Matt Brown (+245) vs Erick Silva $50.00 for $122.50= $122.50
Matt Brown (+140) vs Erick Silva $50.00 for $70.00= $70.00
Philippou wins in round 1 (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00= $110.00
Neil Magny (+120) vs Tim Means $40.00 for $48.00= $48.00
Louis Smolka (-145) vs Chris Cariaso $145.00 for $100.00= -$145.00
Darrell Montague (+145) vs Kyoji Horiguchi $20.00 for $29.00= -$20.00
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Total Profit:= $258.42
I have a feeling I'm going to be fading Brown hard in his next fight. As I saw this one: For the first half-round, he did little except get his ass kicked badly and hang on. After that point, even the worst WW on the UFC roster could have picked up an easy win over Silva.
Lots of people out there seem to be super-impressed by his performance, but I wasn't.
Brown can take a lot of punishment, that's his main skill. I actually saw this fight by pure luck last night and I thought Silva would win easily. Silva has the worst gas tank I have ever seen on a WW.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Worse than Phil Baroni?
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Going by that fight, would you even need the "on a WW" clause? That was worse than Carwin against Lesnar, or even Rumble against Vitor.
The funny thing is, I was remembering a Silva who came back to take round 2 off of Jon Fitch after a round 1 of largely grappling. Yeah, he gassed bad in the 3rd, but still, his cardio lasted 2 rounds.
Against Kim, it seemed like it lasted about 1 round.
Against Brown, half a round.
If this is a trend, I'd say he needs to finish his next opponent in under a quarter of a round, or he can forget it.
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