Game of the Day: Spurs at Thunder
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5, 207.5)
The Oklahoma City Thunder received a lift from Serge Ibaka and will attempt to even the Western Conference when they host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 4 on Tuesday. San Antonio won the first two games by an average of 26 points but Ibaka returned from a calf injury and his presence negated the Spurs’ inside advantage and helped the Thunder to a 106-97 win on Sunday. Ibaka was previously ruled out of the series by coach Scott Brooks before his Game 3 starring role.
San Antonio players claim Sunday’s loss was more about their performance than Ibaka’s return and will certainly have the opportunity to show that is indeed the case with a better Game 4 performance. “We understand that if we don’t bring our ‘A’ game, we don’t play our best game, we’re not going to win here,” guard Manu Ginobili told reporters prior to Monday’s practice. “Hopefully that lesson was learned.” League MVP Kevin Durant is averaging just 22.7 points after putting up 33.2 in Oklahoma City’s six-game series win over the Los Angeles Clippers in the second round.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Thunder as 2.5-point home faves with the total opening 207.5.
INJURY REPORT: No injuries to report.
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "With the surprising return of Serge Ibaka, could the momentum fully swing in the favor of the Thunder? We are seeing the majority of the action (77 percent) on the Thunder at -2.5." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "It seems that most bettors have fallen in love with the Thunder again now that Serge Ibaka is back in the fold. It's hard not to get on board with that line of thinking, as OKC has proven time and time again that it can hang with San Antonio, provided it is at full strength - and that will be the case here. I do believe this is still going to be a long series, with more twists and turns to come. Thunder at -2.5 is a fair line, but I think we'll undoubtedly see it rise to -3 or -3.5 by the time this game tips off on Tuesday night. To put it simply, this isn't quite as strong of a spot for OKC as we saw in Game 3, but it's by no means an ideal situation to back the Spurs either." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
ABOUT THE SPURS: Tony Parker had a subpar Game 3 with just nine points on 4-of-13 shooting and expressed during Monday’s media availability session that he must perform significantly better. The veteran point guard also had the same number of assists as turnovers – four – after averaging 18 points, 8.5 assists and 2.5 turnovers in the first two games. “He’s our best player,” coach Gregg Popovich told reporters on Monday. “He’s got to play better.” Backcourt mate Danny Green also had a poor outing with eight points on 3-of-12 shooting, including 2-of-6 from 3-point range. Green averaged 18.5 points on 13-of-18 shooting (11-of-15 from behind the arc) in the first two games.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Ibaka was the missing link to a frontcourt that struggled without him in the first two games. Veteran Nick Collison and rookie Steven Adams were nonfactors while filling in and Ibaka excelled on the offensive end in Game 3 with 15 points on 6-of-7 shooting while doing his customary good work on the defensive end with four blocked shots to go with seven rebounds. “When you talk about a teammate, that’s everything you want in a teammate,” Durant told reporters in response to Ibaka’s unexpected return. “I gained so much more respect for Serge for sacrificing himself for the team.”
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
* Spurs are 0-8 ATS in the last eight meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last six overall.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of Covers Consensus wagers are coming in on the Thunder -2.5.
Sports investors USA
3 units spurs +3
No Limit Sports
#957 San Diego +122
List Stults/Miley
Rangers at Canadiens: What bettors need to know
New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens (+100, 5)
After scoring the overtime winner on Thursday, Alex Galchenyuk nearly evened the Eastern Conference final at two games apiece, but his bid caromed off the crossbar late in the third period. Martin St. Louis provided the fireworks in the extra session, scoring to extend his point streak to six games and move the New York Rangers within one victory of their first Stanley Cup final appearance in 20 years. The Rangers look to put the nail in the coffin of the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, when they visit the Bell Centre for Game 5.
"It's tough to talk about. You don't want to get ahead of yourself," said Brad Richards, who joined St. Louis in capturing the Cup with Tampa Bay in 2004. At the other end of the spectrum was Galchenyuk, who lamented his missed opportunity on Sunday. "I'm disappointed. I could have ended the game right there, and it would have been 2-2 heading back to Montreal," Galchenyuk said.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBCSN, CBC, RDS
ABOUT THE RANGERS: Although the end result was positive, New York put itself behind the 8-ball as it yielded as many power-play opportunities to Montreal in Game 4. "We have got to play smarter," said Carl Hagelin, who made the Canadiens pay by scoring a short-handed goal in the first period on Sunday. Coach Alain Vigneault refused to take issue with the officials for his team's march to the penalty box. "It was us," he said. "They were penalties (and we) can't do that."
ABOUT THE CANADIENS: P.K. Subban scored a goal for his first point of the series, blocked five shots and logged a game-high 33 minutes, 16 seconds of ice time on Sunday. Although the impressive performance ended up in a losing effort, the reigning Norris Trophy winner refused to hang his head while considering the team's predicament. "I've been down 3-1 in a series before, and the tide can turn really quick - so we're prepared to go home and play a good game," he said. Montreal has rallied from a pair of such deficits, besting Boston in 2004 and Washington six years later in first-round matchups.
TRENDS:
* Under is 8-1-4 in the last 13 meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven overall.
* Under is 4-1-2 in Canadiens last seven vs. Metropolitan.
OVERTIME:
1. The Rangers last enjoyed a 3-1 series lead against the Capitals in a 2009 first-round series. New York lost the next three games.
2. Montreal converted just once on eight power-play opportunities and is 1-for-16 in the series.
3. St. Louis, Richards and LW Daniel Carcillo are the lone players on the Rangers' roster who have competed in the Stanley Cup final. Vigneault also coached Vancouver to the final in 2011 before falling to the Bruins.
Spurs-Thunder Game 4: The game inside the game
By DAVID MALINSKY
The Serge Ibaka storyline from Sunday made dramatic headlines across the sports mediaverse, and rightly so. In the first 5:00 he had eight points on 4-4 shooting, with two blocked shots and two rebounds, and while the Thunder only led 15-14, the tone of the series had changed. But perhaps a story almost as big going forward actually came from somewhere else on the floor.
Ibaka was not the only new starter for Oklahoma City, Reggie Jackson stepped in for Thabo Sefolosha, and it worked. It worked in so many ways that the latter did not even make an appearance. It worked so well that Jackson played more minutes than Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. And that is where the process of breaking down the keys to Game #4 begins.
The gamble for Scott Brooks was not just whether or not Ibaka was healthy enough to go – he had never previously paired Jackson with Westbrook as the starting back-court. But Jackson scored 15 points on 6-13 shooting, while also contributing five assists and four rebounds, and once he settled in his defense on the San Antonio #2’s was solid (after opening 2-2, Danny Green went 1-10 the rest of the way). By adding Ibaka and Jackson there was a level of athleticism and aggression previously missing from the Thunder. Having two more scorers in the starting lineup meant the ability to attack, and it led to two prime statistical storylines.
Naturally energy leads to more activity on the boards, and it was there – a resounding 52-36 rebounding advantage for OKC. It was as a team effort, with Durant and Steven Adams having more rebounds than any San Antonio player, and Westbrook’s eight matching the high for the Spurs. And then there was the way that the aggression created fouls by the Thunder attacking on offense - they turned a low count of 20 Spur fouls into a 26-31 at the FT line. By comparison, OKC committed four more fouls, but it led to 15 fewer San Antonio FT attempts.
It was not all good, of course, with the rarity of a team winning a playoff game despite having more turnovers than assists. But there is some correction to be made there – by generating so many shooting fouls, the Thunder were deprived of some assist opportunities.
Jackson’s activity also forced Tony Parker to play a different game on Sunday, and for once he did not play it well. Prior to Game #3 he had been marvelous through these playoffs, so efficient that much of what he did barely caused a ripple. He was averaging 19.1 points on 49.3 percent shooting, with 76 assists despite some big leads that kept his minutes down (never more than 37:50), and in the first two games of the series the Spurs were +44 points in his 64:03 of court time. But in Game #3 it was 4-13 from the field, with as many turnovers (four) as assists, and no steals. This time San Antonio was a -12 in his 28:18, and the flow of the entire offense was off (outside of Manu Ginobli, they shot 35.9 percent).
Parker had to play more one-on-one defense, instead of slacking off to haunt the passing lanes, and when he did have the ball the presence of Ibaka was a genuine factor in keeping him from the basket (he got only got to the restricted area one time in the first half). If we do not count Game #5 of the Portland series, when he was limited to 10:05 because of a strained hamstring, Basketball Reference charted it as his worst playoff performance since May 5th of 2004, when he was 4-18 with six turnovers against the Lakers.
So now on the Game #4, with the markets pushing the resurgent Thunder to -3, and the Total staying steady with the predecessors (207.5-208). That early emotional surge that helped to turn the series on Sunday will have worn off, and now it is Gregg Popovich that can make the adjustments, knowing that Ibaka is healthy, and Jackson’s role in the rotation has changed so significantly. And that brings plenty of food for thought.
If there is an issue of starting Jackson alongside Westbrook, it is one of Brooks finding some punch from the reserves, a catalyst role Jackson usually plays. Despite winning on Sunday there were only 21 OKC bench points, on 38.1 percent shooting. By creating a better starting lineup the Thunder face the downside of having to re-mix the other pieces, not only doing it against a much deeper team, but vs. a coach that is a master at crafting his puzzles. But does Brooks have one additional move to make that can offset that – with several days off prior to Sunday, and Westbrook getting out at 36:04 and Durant at one second less, could this be a night in which they both play well into the 40’s?
As for the total, consider this – explosive first half counts of 110, 102 and 126 have turned into second stanzas of just 93, 87 and 101 because the games were not competitive. Instead of intense late-game scrambles there have been two FT’s made by starters in the final 5:00 of the entire series, and one of them was the result of a technical, not on-court action. With Tuesday’s setting bringing the ingredients for a much closer affair, this could be an entirely different end-game.
Cappers Access
Spurs +3
Braves -105
Gamblers Data
Free Plays Tuesday
Rangers -145
Blue Jays -121
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Free Play TUES Texas -140
Today's MLB Picks
Tampa Bay at Toronto
The Blue Jays look to follow up yesterday's 10-5 win over the Rays and come into today's contest with a 10-2 record in Mark Buehrle's last 12 starts as a home favorite. Toronto is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, MAY 27
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. ESTGame 951-952: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.012; Washington (Treinen) 15.575
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); UnderGame 953-954: Colorado at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.607; Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.530
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); OverGame 955-956: Pittsburgh at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Volquez) 15.502; NY Mets (Niese) 14.676
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); OverGame 957-958: San Diego at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 13.206; Arizona (Miley) 14.898
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); UnderGame 959-960: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 15.622; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 14.744
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+140); UnderGame 961-962: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 14.002; San Francisco (Hudson) 15.516
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-180); OverGame 963-964: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 14.206; Toronto (Buehrle) 15.839
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); OverGame 965-966: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 16.322; White Sox (Sale) 15.416
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); UnderGame 967-968: Houston at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (McHugh) 14.801; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.283
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); OverGame 969-970: Texas at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 14.875; Minnesota (Hughes) 15.766
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); UnderGame 971-972: Detroit at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.622; Oakland (Gray) 14.738
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); OverGame 973-974: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.883; Seattle (Elias) 14.322
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); UnderGame 975-976: Boston at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.541; Atlanta (Harang) 14.350
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-105); OverGame 977-978: Baltimore at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 14.323; Milwaukee (Garza) 15.768
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); UnderGame 979-980: NY Yankees at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.612; St. Louis (Lynn) 16.087
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Over
Today's NBA Picks
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to follow up their 106-97 win in Game 3 against a San Antonio team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. Oklahoma City is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
TUESDAY, MAY 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 515-516: San Antonio at Oklahoma City (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.772; Oklahoma City 132.312
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-2 1/2); Under
Today's NHL Picks
NY Rangers at Montreal
The Rangers look to close out the series tonight in Montreal and come into the contest with a 4-0 record in their last 4 road games. New York is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-115). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
TUESDAY, MAY 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 17-18: NY Rangers at Montreal (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 13.122; Montreal 11.651
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-115); Under
WNBA Basketball Picks
Seattle at New York
The Liberty host Seattle tonight and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Storm. New York is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: New York (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
TUESDAY, MAY 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 601-602: Seattle at New York (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 107.287; New York 119.134
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 12; 145
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: New York (-5 1/2); Over
Monday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Samardzija seeks first win
Getting Pushy
The Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates earned a push Sunday afternoon in a 5-2 Washington win. It was the second push of the series, giving both teams seven on the season - tied for second-most in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves (nine).
Rays a Rare Underdog
The Tampa Bay Rays haven't been an underdog against Toronto in their last 10 games, but find themselves a +133 longshot entering Monday's series opener at the Rogers Centre. The teams split those 10 meetings, with the Jays taking two of three in their last encounter in Toronto.
Samardzija Seeking Runs
Chicago Cubs hurler Jeff Samardzija looks for his first win of the season Monday afternoon against the host San Francisco Giants (-135, 7). The Cubs have lost each of Samardzija's last seven starts despite the ace right-hander allowing just eight earned runs over 47 innings in that span.
Pitching Notes
* Los Angeles Angels right-hander Tyler Skaggs enters Monday's encounter with the host Seattle Mariners (+123, 7.5) ranked fifth in the majors in money earned ($709) and is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three road starts. Skaggs has also been a strong Over play, going 7-2 O/U on the season.
* Baltimore Orioles righty Chris Tillman was shelled for eight runs in just one inning of work last time out for his first loss against the moneyline in five starts as an underdog so far in 2014. Tillman and the Orioles (+126, 8) open an interleague series in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon.
Hitting Notes
* Atlanta Braves slugger Evan Gattis swatted a pair of home runs in Sunday's drubbing of the Rockies, giving him 10 for the season. Atlanta is 7-1 S/U and 2-5-1 O/U in games featuring at least one Gattis homer entering Monday's interleague tilt with visiting Boston (+117, 7).
* New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter had a season-high four hits en route to a 7-1 triumph over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. Jeter is heating up after a slow start and now has four multi-hit efforts in his last nine games; the Yankees are 2-2 S/U and 2-2 O/U in those contests.
Totals Streak
Colorado Rockies (0-5 O/U): The league's most vaunted offense has fallen on tough times of late, scoring just six runs over its previous four games. The Rockies capped the subpar stretch with a 7-0 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves (-166) on Sunday afternoon.
Prop of the Day
The Giants are +120 underdogs to score the first run of the game against Samardzija and the Cubs, but have been strong in the early going all season. San Francisco leads the majors with a .322 first-inning batting average and have a league-high 38 runs in the opening frame.
Injury Notes
* Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill left Sunday's game against the New York Mets after fouling a ball off his ankle, and is considered questionable for Monday's game against visiting San Diego (+110, 8.5). Arizona is 0-8 O/U in the last eight games Hill has played.
* Reds right-hander Mat Latos threw four innings in a rehab start Sunday as he continues his recovery from an elbow injury. Latos, who has yet to throw an inning for Cincinnati this season, went 20-12 against the moneyline and 15-16-1 O/U in 32 starts last year.
Weather Watch
* Turner Field will see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for the game between Atlanta and Boston. Teams averaged a paltry 5.5 runs over eight games under similar wind conditions in 2013, well below the stadium average of 7.46.
* Wind at AT&T Park will blow out to center field at 12 mph when the Giants entertain the Cubs. Teams averaged 1.4 home runs in 30 games with the wind blowing out to center at between 10 and 20 mph last season - slightly more than the stadium average of 1.35.
RIVER CITY SHARPS
The Rays are starting to play better baseball and have won four of five games coming into this pitchers duel tonight. The Rays will send out Alex Cobb (1-1, 1.40 ERA) against the Blue Jays ace Mark Buehrle (8-1, 2.16) We realize that we are going “against the grain” in playing against the ace at home at a reasonable price, but we really like this Cobb kid and think you will get a solid performance from him tonight. He has had pretty good success vs. the Blue Jays, going 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA against Toronto lifetime. Buehrle has been really solid all year for the Jays, but the Rays do have several guys (Longoria most notably) that have enjoyed pretty good success over him for their career. An interesting trend line in this game is that the Rays are 6-0 in Cobbs last six starts against teams with a winning record. The value in this one clearly lies with the road dog, which is where we look tonight. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – TAMPA BAY RAYS (+110)
PHILLY GODFATHER
Under 5 – rangers vs canadians
NHL
Tuesday, May 27
Road team won three of first four series games, with last two going to OT; Rangers are 6-3 on road in playoffs, allowing total of five goals while winning last four on foreign ice. Montreal is 8-5 in last 13 series games, but needs win here to keep series alive; they're 9-6 in the playoffs, 4-3 at home, losing three of last four home games. Rangers are 32-18 on road for season; under is 6-3-3 in their last twelve games- they had twice as many penalty minutes in Game 4, but also had a shorthanded goal. Over is 43-26-14 in playoffs, 4-2-2 this round.
MLB
Tuesday, May 27
Early Tuesday forecasts are calling for scattered thunderstorms heading to the East Coast, stretching to the Midwest and putting the status of some ball games in jeopardy.
Five Major League Baseball matchups could be affected by the inclement weather. Those games (with current odds) are Miami at Washington (Nationals -114), Colorado at Philadelphia (Phillies -119), Pittsburgh at New York Mets (Mets -114), Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (White Sox -161) and Texas at Minnesota (Rangers -148).
New York versus Pittsburgh looks to be the most vulnerable since it's projected Citi Field will see thundershowers all day with a 60 percent chance of precipitation at gametime.
NBA
Tuesday, May 27
Oklahoma City got big man Ibaka back in Game 3, Spurs shot 39.6% in a Thunder win; OC has now won 11 of last 15 games with San Antonio, is 8-0 in last eight series games played here. Thunder was +16 on boards in Game 3; Spurs are 28-67 from arc in series, +11 in turnovers. Eight of last eleven series games stayed under total. Thunder is 5-3 at home in playoffs. Spurs are 4-3 on road in playoffs. One guy makes a difference; Spurs shot 58%/50% in first two series games. Home team covered six of seven games in this round of playoffs so far.
Over is 46-33 in playoffs this season, 4-3 in this round..
Favorites are 30-49 in playoffs this season, 6-1 in this round.
Paul Leiner
100* Over 7 – Redsox vs Braves
100* Angels -135
50* Rangers -145
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