Tiger
CFL (121) CALGARY STAMPEDERS +2.5 -110
Today's CFL Picks
Calgary at Edmonton
The Stampeders head to Edmonton on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Calgary is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Calgary. Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
THURSDAY, JULY 24
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (7/23)Game 121-122: Calgary at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 118.734; Edmonton 112.678
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Pick; 50
Dunkel Pick: Calgary; Under
Baseball Crusher
Seattle Mariners -140 over Baltimore O's
(System Record: 67-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 67-44
Rest of the Plays
Milwaukee Brewers -148 over NY Mets
Detroit Tigers +114 over LA Angels
Cleveland Indians -117 over KC Royals
Game of the Day: Stampeders at Eskimos
Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Eskimos (+1, 50)
Thursday's tilt between the Calgary Stampeders and host Edmonton Eskimos represents more than the latest chapter in the CFL's Battle of Alberta - it also will decide bragging rights atop the crowded West Division. The Stampeders and Eskimos are the only two remaining unbeaten teams in the league. Both are coming off impressive defensive efforts, with Calgary defeating Hamilton 10-7 and Edmonton coasting past Winnipeg 26-3.
While both clubs are on a high following impressive victories last week, each has reason to be concerned on the offensive side of the ball. The Eskimos struggled to gain traction against a stubborn Winnipeg side, not scoring their first offensive touchdown until early in the fourth quarter. Things were even more dire for the Stampeders, who managed only a field goal by Rene Paredes and Brad Sinopoli's 26-yard TD run off a broken play.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Eskies as 2.5-point home faves, but that has moved all the may to +1. The total opened 52.5 but has dropped to 50.
INJURY REPORT: Stampeders - RB Jon Cornish (Out, concussion).
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The season is still in its early stages, but this is undoubtedly a big game - for more reasons that one. The Eskimos are gaining more respect with each passing week (and victory). Are they a shade overvalued off of last week's dominating win in Winnipeg? Probably. Calgary is banged-up right now, with RB Jon Cornish expected to miss at least one more game, and that should help keep this line in check as kickoff approaches." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (3-0, 2-1 ATS): Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly will be a popular point of discussion this week in Calgary's dressing room after he torched the Stampeders for 155 rushing yards on 19 carries a season ago. "Anytime you can get a hit on a quarterback, you like it," said linebacker Deron Mayo, who is expected to play despite dealing with a hamstring injury. "But he's good at running, and he's good at making people miss as well. That will be a challenge for us, coming up and stopping him."
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (4-0, 3-1 ATS): Edmonton appears to have survived a scare, as receiver Fred Stamps returned to practice over the weekend showing no ill effects following a thunderous hit from Winnipeg's Demond Washington in last Thursday's win. Stamps was the victim of a late hit as he cut across the back of the end zone and was helped off the field by trainers while Washington was given an unnecessary roughness penalty on the play. "I feel good," Stamps said following Sunday's practice. "I feel healthy and I'm ready for Calgary."
TRENDS:
* Stampeders are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Edmonton.
* Under is 4-0 in Eskimos last four games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Stampeders last seven road games.
* Eskimos are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 53.46 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are behind the Eskimos.
Betting 101: Second half adjustments MLB bettors must make
By JASON LOGAN
Sports betting is Darwinism at its best. Adapt or die, especially when it comes to wagering on the second half of the MLB schedule.
The home stretch of the baseball calendar presents different challenges to MLB bettors than the first three and half months. Not only do you have to account for the wear and tear of a very long season, but things like motivation - or lack thereof - start to gain importance when the playoff picture comes into focus.
We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest baseball cappers to share how they adjust their strategy in the second half of the baseball season:
Don’t fall in love with stats
The first half of the baseball season has provided endless spread sheets, stuffed to the jock with valuable baseball betting information. But, once the schedule turns the corner, those stats might not be worth the paper they’re printed on.
What happened between April and July may not continue to happen in August and September. And that’s where you find value, betting on or against teams going against the grain.
A club like the Colorado Rockies was one of the best Over bets in the majors in the first half of the sked – averaging more than 10 total runs per game - but have gone just 3-10-3 O/U this month, including a 0-3-1 O/U count since the break. However, oddsmakers continue to set double-digit totals for Rockies’ games.
Covers Expert Sean Murphy loves to exploit these swings in the stats by finding inflated favorites – that did well in the first half of the schedule - and betting against the chalk in the second half.
“I'll strictly focus on playing underdogs from this point forward,” Murphy says. “We tend to see some seriously overvalued sides now that there's a large sample size of results to work with and preconceived notions of which teams rank among baseball's elite.”
Pricing pitchers
Starting pitchers are priority No. 1 when it comes to capping baseball. And these influential arms can make or break a wager during the Dog Days of Summer.
A starter that was successful in the first half of the calendar can run out of steam come the summer months, giving great value to the other side or the Over. Finding these windows of opportunity before the close is a perfect way to change up your game in the final months of the baseball season.
Covers Expert Will Rogers keeps a close eye on which pitchers overachieved in the first chunk of schedule and picks his spots when they fall from grace.
“The one positive about being this deep into the season is that we have enough information to know what pitchers may have gotten off to fraudulent starts and are now starting to regress some,” says Rogers. “An example is Mark Buehrle of Toronto, who looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball for a time. But over the last month or so, he has come back down to Earth.”
Buehrle had a 2.48 ERA and a 10-5 record in the first three months of the season but has since gone 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in July, allowing five runs through six innings in his most recent outing.
Covers Expert Marc Lawrence has a few points he looks at when it comes to betting and fading starters down the stretch, keying on things like WHIP as an indicator of which arms are real and fake heading into the second part of the season.
“I will be looking to fade pitchers who cobbled together a winning record in the first half despite owning a lousy WHIP - John Danks, Jarred Cosart, Aaron Harang,” says Lawrence. “On the flip side, I'll be looking to back hurlers who compiled a strong WHIP yet incurred a losing first-half record - Jeff Samardzija, Tyson Ross, Charlie Morton.”
Covers Expert Jesse Schule likes to take advantage of the trade-happy market at this time of year, with contenders pillaging talent from losing clubs. A late-season addition to a rotation or bullpen can be just what the doctor ordered, injecting an outside contender with life.
“I'll keep a close eye on a few teams that I expect to be in the trade market, such as the Yankees, Jays and Cardinals,” says Schule. “With pitchers like David Price and Cole Hamels rumored to be available, the balance of power can shift pretty quickly.”
Motivation and schedule
As mentioned above, motivation can be a huge factor when capping the closing months of baseball. The postseason races pick up in August and September, lighting a fire under those clubs in contention.
But as for the teams on the outside of the postseason picture looking in, there is still plenty of value to be had, according to Covers Expert Steve Merril, who doesn’t shy away from these squads playing out the season.
Merril looks for non-contending teams loading up on Triple-A call-ups, trying to plan ahead for next year. Young pitchers and position players are hungry and go all out trying to make the cut with the big league club, giving some spark to teams that have hovered at the bottom of the division most of the summer.
“The oddsmakers often over-inflate the odds on playoff teams and contenders in must-win situations and this can create value on losing teams with top young prospects on the mound,” says Merril, “especially when the opposing hitters are unfamiliar with that starting pitcher.”
Keeping tabs of the schedule is also more important at this point in the year. Teams that played in May have much more tape on each other now and the familiarity evens out the playing field. A club that rolled to a series sweep in the first half of the slate may not show the same dominance in August.
“One particular angle I'm having some success with lately is taking teams that are playing with revenge for getting swept in a previous series by that same opponent,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “This is provided they aren't a big dog. At this point of the season, most opponents have met at least one time previously this year.”
Summer heat
Just like capping the wind at Wrigley Field, baseball bettors should watch the temperature at some of the major’s hottest cities. Routine fly balls can quickly turn into home runs when the mercury rises, especially if the humidity is high.
Knowing what type of pitcher – flyball or ground ball – and the power the lineup brings to the plate on these scorchers can give bettors an edge when capping the totals. Baseball bettors should also monitor how many innings a starter usually goes and their pitch counts. The heat impacts the pitcher more than batters.
Starters are left on the mount to cook under the sun while batters can take shelter in air conditioned dugouts. Heavy-set pitchers have been known to withstand the heat and carry a bigger gas tank than slimmer starters.
Orioles pitcher using a bend don't break method
Justin Hartling
The Baltimore Orioles will send Wei-Yin Chen to the mound Thursday. The O's have had success with Chen on the mound going 4-1 in his last five starts.
Chen has given up approximately six hits and three runs during those outings while only once pitching six complete innings.
Marlins riding incredibly hot pitcher
Justin Hartling
Henderson Alvarez has been soaring for for the Miami Marlins. Alvarez has led the Marlins to a sterling 10-2 record in his past 12 starts.
In Alvarez's last 12 starts, he has only given up 18 runs while allowing less than two runs eight times.
2Halves2Win - MLB 7/24
1* GAME - TEX @ NYY: Yankees -1.5 RL
COMP
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, JULY 24th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 7/24/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #17
•Rays' Escobar Booted After Strikeout: Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Yunel Escobar was ejected from Wednesday night's game with the St. Louis Cardinals after arguing a called third strike in the top of the fourth inning. Escobar started to first base after taking a 3-2 pitch, but home plate umpire Dan Bellino rung him up. Escobar jumped up and down about 10 feet from the plate and then confronted Bellino, who booted him. Escobar was the second Ray to be kicked out in as many nights. Manager Joe Maddon was heaved in Tuesday night's 7-2 win by plate umpire Mark Ripperger in the third inning. Bellino leads all MLB umpires in ejections this year with six.
•Masahiro Tanaka Still Has Elbow Pain: New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Wednesday that Masahiro Tanaka, the ace of his pitching staff, is still feeling discomfort in his pitching elbow despite not having picked up a baseball since receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection 10 days ago. Speaking on ESPN New York 98.7 FM's "The Michael Kay Show," Cashman gave the following update on Tanaka: "He's improved, but he still feels it, although on a daily basis it decreases. So that's good but it's not good that he's still feeling it at this stage. So it's just day-by-day, week-by-week and we'll adjust accordingly. It's too early to call." Tanaka was diagnosed with a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament via MRI after complaining of elbow pain following an ineffective performance against the Indians in Cleveland on July 8.
•Maybin Suspended, Padres Call Up Francoeur: San Diego Padres outfielder Cameron Mayin was suspended 25 games without pay after testing positive for an Amphetamine in violation of Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension was effective immediately, and the Padres purchased the contract of outfielder Jeff Francoeur from Triple-A El Paso. Maybin is hitting just .247 in 174 at-bats this season, appearing in 62 games. He has one home run and nine RBIs to go with three stolen bases.
Francoeur was in the starting lineup for the Padres' game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, and hit a two-run double in the first inning. The 30-year-old was released by the Cleveland Indians during the final week of spring training and signed a minor-league deal with the Padres on March 25. He was hitting .294 with 15 home runs and 60 RBIs in 98 games with El Paso. Francoeur has a .263 career batting average in parts of nine seasons in the majors.
•Nationals Put Zimmerman On DL: The Washington Nationals placed infielder/outfielder Ryan Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list with a right hamstring strain, the team announced Wednesday. Zimmerman, 29, goes on the DL for the second time this season after missing 44 games with a right thumb fracture earlier in the year. He is hitting .282 with five home runs, 19 doubles and 36 RBIs. In the month of July, Zimmerman collected 21 hits in 58 at-bats (.362), posted a .418 on-base percentage and a .569 slugging percentage with eight extra-base hits (six doubles, two home runs).
The Nationals also recalled infielder Zach Walters from Syracuse of the Triple-A International League. Walters, 24, rejoins the Nationals for his second stint of the season. In 60 games at Triple-A this season, Walters is hitting .300 with a .358 on-base percentage and a .608 slugging percentage. While racking up 38 extra-base hits, Walters has hit 15 home runs with 48 RBIs.
•Yankees Put Johnson On DL: The New York Yankees placed infielder Kelly Johnson on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin, the team announced Wednesday. Johnson was removed from Tuesday night's game against the Texas Rangers after suffering the injury. Johnson is hitting .219 with six home runs and 22 RBIs in 201 at-bats this season. The Yankees also called up right-hander Chris Leroux from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and designated right-hander Bruce Billings for assignment.
•Milone Reached Out To Melvin About Trade Request: A’s manager Bob Melvin said he’s spoken with pitcher Tommy Milone, who made news Monday when it surfaced that he’s requested that Oakland trade him. It was Milone that sought Melvin out for a phone conversation, the lefty apparently wanting to clear the air and make sure his big league manager knows where he’s coming from. Milone was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento on July 5 despite posting sparkling numbers leading up to his demotion, and Oakland’s big league rotation looks booked as it currently stands following the trade for starters Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.
Fox Sports reported Monday that Milone has asked for a trade, and that the New York Yankees are one team interested in him. Milone has declined comment on the matter. “He got a hold of me when all of this was coming out. I’m pretty sure he didn’t expect this to get the play it has,” Melvin said. “To an extent, he’s looking out for his big league career, and he’s pitched really well for us. You don’t blame him for wanting to be in the big leagues. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to be here. He does wanna be here. He’s respected by his teammates, and he respects the situation going on here. But he wants to be in the big leagues, and I don’t blame him for that.” Milone was 6-0 with a 2.62 ERA over his previous 11 starts before being optioned to Sacramento.
•One Strip Club Has Quite The Retirement Gift For Derek Jeter: Who needs retirement gifts like a rocking chair and gold watch? Nothing says congratulations on a brilliant baseball career quite like freebies at a... strip club? An all-nude joint in New York City is offering Derek Jeter and the rest of the Yankees organization free lap dances Sept. 7, the same day that the team is officially honoring the captain. All Yankee employees will receive free admission and two free lap dances, the Show Palace in Queens announced. Plus, the dancers will be painted in pinstripes.
If Jeter himself were to show up, a rep tells The Huffington Post, he "gets unlimited lap dances and food and a lifetime free-entry pass to Show Palace as a thank you for his years of service as a New York Yankee." Of course, Jeter has cultivated a generally clean image throughout his tenure, so it's doubtful he'd accept. But nice to know the offer stands. We reached out to the Yankees for comment, but we aren't holding our breath for a return. Show Palace isn't the first area nudie bar to use sports for publicity, but at least the public can benefit if it chooses: All fans wearing a Jeter jersey on Sept. 7 will get free admission as well, the club said. It should be noted, however, that Show Palace already offers gratis entry via its website before 10 p.m.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
National League
•Giants-Phillies - 1:05 PM
--Hudson is 1-0, 1.32 in his last two road starts.
--Hamels is 2-0, 2.61 in his last three starts.
--Giants won six of their last seven games.
--Phillies lost 12 of last 15 games at home.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Hudson's last nine starts.
•Marlins-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Alvarez is 0-2, 9.39 in his last couple starts.
--Harang is 4-0, 2.38 in his last five starts.
--Marlins won three of their last four games.
--Atlanta lost three of its last five games.
--Last four Alvarez starts went over the total; four of last five Harang starts stayed under.
•Padres-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Ross is 2-2, 0.93 in his last four starts.
--Jackson is 0-3, 7.18 in his last five starts.
--San Diego lost six of its last eight road games.
--Cubs lost 11 of their last 15 games.
--Last ten Ross starts stayed under the total.
•Mets-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Gee is 1-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
--Garza got knocked out in first inning last start, allowing five runs (42 PT).
--Mets won 10 of their last 14 games.
--Milwaukee won its last four home games.
--Five of last seven Gee starts stayed under total.
American League
•Red Sox-Blue Jays - 12:35 PM
--De La Rosa is 2-0, 1.73 in his last four starts.
--Stroman is 4-1, 1.82 in six home starts.
--Boston won eight of its last eleven games.
--Blue Jays lost ten of their last sixteen games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in de la Rosa starts this season.
•Rangers-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Lewis is 0-2, 18.42 in his last two starts.
--McCarthy is 1-0, 3.55 in two starts (2-0) for New York.
--Rangers lost 27 of their last 33 games.
--Yankees won six of its last eight games.
--Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen New York home games; eight of last ten Lewis starts went over the total.
•Astros-Athletics - 3:35 PM
--Feldman is 0-2, 5.89 in his last three starts.
--Samardzija is 1-1, 3.27 in three starts for Oakland.
--Houston lost 13 of its last 19 road games.
--Oakland won 14 of its last 17 home games.
--Nine of last twelve Feldman starts went over total.
•Indians-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Kluber is 3-0, 2.74 in his last three starts.
--Duffy is 0-3, 3.86 in his last three starts.
--Cleveland lost three of its last four games.
--Kansas City lost seven of its last ten games, but won last two.
--Last six Duffy starts stayed under the total.
•White Sox-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Noesi is 2-2, 5.64 in his last four starts.
--Hughes is 2-3, 5.94 in his last five starts.
--White Sox lost three of their last four games.
--Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
--11 of last 15 White Sox games stayed under.
•Tigers-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Scherzer is 3-1, 1.87 in his last five starts.
--Richards is 7-0, 1.25 in his last nine starts.
--Detroit won three of its last four games.
--Angels won 15 of their last 20 games.
--Last three Richards starts stayed under the total.
•Orioles-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Chen won three straight starts behind a 4.32 ERA.
--Iwakuma is 3-0 over his last four starts with a 1.57 ERA.
--Baltimore won three of their last five games.
--Mariners lost five of its last seven games.
--Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 starts as a road underdog.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Hudson 12-6; Hamels 7-10
-- Alvarez 13-7; Harang 11-8
-- Ross 9-12; Jackson 6-14
-- Gee 5-5; Garza 10-10
-- De La Rosa 4-3; Stroman 4-5
-- Lewis 8-9; McCarthy 4-14/2-0
-- Feldman 6-11; Samardzija 3-14/2-1
-- Kluber 13-8; Duffy 5-9
-- Noesi 7-8; Hughes 13-7
-- Scherzer 14-6; Richards 15-5
-- Chen 12-7; Iwakuma 9-6
•Umpires Trends
-- SF-Phil-- Four of last six Pattillo games went over; visitor won last four.
-- Mia-Atl-- Favorites won five of last six Foster games.
-- SD-Chi-- Four of last five Kulpa games stayed under.
-- Tex-NY-- 10 of last 13 Iassogna games stayed under total.
-- Bos-Tor-- Favorites won seven of last ten Hernandez games.
-- Hst-A's-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Schrieber games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Giants pitcher Tim Hudson is 19-3 (86.3%) his last twenty-two away team starts, including 11-2 against the money line in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The right-hander benefited from eight days off before his outing Saturday, allowing one run in 7 1/3 innings in a 5-3 win at Miami. He was 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his final five starts before the All-Star break.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
•MINNESOTA is 6-22 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.9.
•SAN DIEGO is 54-22 UNDER (+28.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.9, OPPONENT 3.3.
•TEXAS is 9-27 (-24.4 Units) against the run line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.6, OPPONENT 5.5.
•AARON HARANG is 2-12 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HARANG 2.8, OPPONENT 5.1.
•TYSON ROSS is 14-2 UNDER (+11.5 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ROSS 2.2, OPPONENT 2.7.
•EDWIN JACKSON is 5-19 (-19.4 Units) against the run line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSON 3.7, OPPONENT 6.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season - American League.
(54-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +38.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -130.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +2.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-8, +20.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (151-89, +32.7 units).
•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season.
(61-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +36.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (58-30 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 51 (58% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-5, +4.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-14, +2.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (125-76, +42 units).
•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing.
(44-18 since 1997.) (71%, +24.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.9, Money Line=-106.1
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 4.9 (Total runs scored = 9.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 36 (59% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4, -1.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-12, -0.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-15, +11.2 units).
CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
By David Schwab
The 2014 CFL season is just four weeks old and we are already seeing a major disparity between a West Division that has four teams with a .500 record or better and an East Division that so far has combined to win just three games straight up.
Last Thursday, Edmonton won the battle of two unbeaten teams in the West with a 26-3 victory over Winnipeg as a 1 ½-point road underdog. The total stayed well UNDER the 54-point closing line. Ottawa kicked off Friday’s double-header with its first ever CFL victory as the RedBlacks with a tight 18-17 win against Toronto as a one-point home underdog. That total stayed UNDER the 52-point line. Calgary remained perfect in the West with a 10-7 win over Hamilton at home on Friday night as a 9 ½-point favorite and the total stayed UNDER the 51-point closing line.
In the only game on Saturday’s slate in Week 4, British Columbia pasted Montreal 41-5 as a 7 ½-point home favorite to even its mark after a 0-2 SU start. It was a clean sweep for the UNDER play with the total line in that game set at 48 ½ points.
Thursday, July 24
Calgary (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -2
Total: 52½
Game Overview
Calgary continues to be the most complete team in the CFL with an offense that is averaging 24.3 points a game complementing a defense that has allowed a grand total of just 30 points in its first three games. With running back Jon Cornish still out with a concussion, Matt Walter has helped fill the void with 134 yards on 28 carries.
The Eskimos have already matched last season’s win total with last week’s victory. They have averaged 27 points a game with Mike Reilly at the helm at quarterback, but the biggest reason for the quick turnaround from last season’s misfortunes is a defense that is holding opponents to an average of 14.5 points a game.
Betting Trends
The Stampeders are 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings and they have covered against the spread in five of the last six games in this series. They also have a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four trips to Edmonton with the total staying UNDER in three of the four games.
Friday, July 25
Winnipeg (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) at British Columbia (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Point-spread: BC-7
Total: 53½
Game Overview
Winnipeg will look to quickly bounce back from last week’s dismal three-point effort after averaging 38.3 points in its first three games. The Blue Bombers are still the highest scoring team in the CFL behind quarterback Drew Willy, who has thrown for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns while completing 62.4 percent of his attempts.
BC has had to turn to Kevin Glenn at quarterback in the absence of Travis Lulay and he came up with his best offensive effort of the year this past Saturday against Montreal with 301 yards passing and two touchdowns. He had quite a bit of help from wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux, who caught eight balls for 145 yards after missing much of the season so far due to injury.
Betting Trends
The Lions current SU winning streak in this series stands at five games and they are 3-2 ATS during that run. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings and it has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 10 meetings at BC Place.
Saturday, July 26
Ottawa (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Hamilton (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -4½
Total: 48½
Game Overview
The RedBlacks earned their first victory of the season behind Henry Burris throwing the ball and Chevon Walker running it on the ground. Neither player’s numbers were spectacular, but it was just enough to get the job done. You also have to give credit to the defense for its ability to shutdown Toronto when it needed to the most.
Hamilton had to turn to both Jeremiah Masoli and Dan LeFevour last week for injured quarterback Zach Collaros and the result was a grand total of seven points on a one-point play and two field goals. Collaros remains questionable for this Saturday while recovering from a blow to the head. The Tiger-Cats are ranked dead-last in scoring with an average of 13.7 points a game.
Betting Trends
The Tiger-Cats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games at home.
Toronto (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Saskatchewan (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6
Total: 49½
Game Overview
Despite the fact that quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in passing with 1,280 yards while completing 70.9 percent of his throws, this has not always translated to points and more importantly wins. It also does not help when you have a defense that has given-up the most points (112) in the league.
The defending champs are fresh off a bye week that followed a disappointing 26-13 loss to BC in Week 3 as five-point home favorites. Saskatchewan has already lost to the Argonauts this season in a 48-15 beatdown in Week 2 as a two-point favorite on the road. Darian Durant has 622 passing yards in three games and he has completed just 55.3 percent of his 85 attempts.
Betting Trends
The Argonauts have won three of the last four meetings both SU and ATS and the total has gone OVER in all four games. The road team in this matchup is 6-3 SU in the last nine meetings and Toronto is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Saskatchewan.
CFL
Calgary (3-0) @ Edmonton (4-0) -- Stampeders won last seven series games, winning last four here by 2-3-10-14 points, with three of those four staying under total. Both sides yet to lose this year, with under a combined 7-0 in their games; Calgary is allowing just 10 ppg, while the Eskimos scored 26+ points in all four, beating TiCats/RedBlacks at home- they've led at half in only one of four games. Edmonton is +8 in turnovers with 13 takeaways; Calgary turned ball over only two times in its three wins (+2).
Today's MLB Picks
Detroit at LA Angels
The Angels open a series tonight against a Detroit team that is 2-10 in the last 12 meetings between the two clubs. LA is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
THURSDAY, JULY 24
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. ESTGame 951-952: San Francisco at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 16.669; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.115
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); OverGame 953-954: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 15.997; Atlanta (Harang) 14.866
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+125); UnderGame 955-956: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 16.181; Cubs (Jackson) 14.546
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); N/AGame 957-958: NY Mets at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.108; Milwaukee (Garza) 15.735
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); OverGame 959-960: Boston at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (De La Rosa) 16.552; Toronto (Stroman) 14.655
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110); UnderGame 961-962: Texas at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.861; NY Yankees (McCarthy) 13.923
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+170); UnderGame 963-964: Houston at Oakland (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 13.993; Oakland (Samardzija) 17.361
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-260); OverGame 965-966: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 17.922; Kansas City (Duffy) 16.021
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125); OverGame 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 15.524; Minnesota (Hughes) 16.955
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-160); OverGame 969-970: Detroit at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.301; LA Angels (Richards) 17.731
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); UnderGame 971-972: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.105; Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.024
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Under
WNBA Basketball Picks
New York at Seattle
The Liberty head to Seattle tonight to face a Storm team that is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 Thursday games. Seattle is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
THURSDAY, JULY 24
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 601-602: New York at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 106.681; Seattle 112.744
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 6; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4); OverGame 603-604: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.564; Los Angeles 114.973
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 164 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3); Under
Gamblers Data
Free Plays Thursday
Braves -146
Angels / Tigers Under 7
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Free play Seattle -140 w/ Iwakuima
Hondo
Buchholz and the Bosawx buckled against the Blue Jays Wednesday night, which caused Hondo’s dirty digits to rise to 1,450 malzones.
Thursday: Mr. Aitch will stick with the Sawx — 10 units on De La Rosa to extinguish the Jays.
Mighty Quinn
Mighty had no play on Wednesday and likes the Yankees on Thursday.
The deficit is 354 sirignanos.
Phillies pitcher keeps Giants offense shrunk
Justin Hartling
Cole Hamels will take to the mound against the San Francisco Giants, a team he has had great success against. This success has paid out at the betting window with a 1-5-0 over/under record in his last seven starts against San Fran.
Hamels has given up an average of 2.5 runs per game in that span, with the teams averaging a mere five runs total.
Just how dominant is Kluber against Royals?
Justin Hartling
Corey Kluber will take the mound for the Cleveland Indians with a sterling record against the opposition. The Indians are 6-1 against the Kansas CIity Royals in Kluber's last seven starts.
Kluber has given up less than two runs per game during those starts. Kluber has also struckout eight or more batters in three of those games including 10 in his last outing earlier this month.
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