7-25-14

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Sports Picks Portfolio

OAK Over 9.5 +105
MIN Under 9 -115
PIT Over 10 -125
DET Over 8.5 -125
SEA Under 6.5 -120
SF +114

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Dave Aquino
Today's Selections


WNBA : shock/mystics over 161


CFL : BC -8
0-1 Thurs. Now 33-37-1 on the latest free trial.

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Mysystempicks

2.5* Brewers
2* Pirates
2* Seattle -1

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JEFF BENTON

50 DIMER

50 DIME winner going out for this Friday is the Pirates and Rockies to go Over the total with Morton and Anderson listed as your starters. At 9:30 am eastern time, the total for this game is 10 1/2 under, -110 both in Vegas and offshore. Keep in mind that both listed pitchers must start, or this is a NO PLAY.

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Sports Handicapper King

MLB
Rays

CFL
Winnipeg

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UNDER Umpire Streakers

#909 NYM/MIL UN7.5 -105 1u (S.Pt) Danley 3ov/14un L17gm 82.4%
#921 CWS/MIN UN9 -115 1u (S.Pt) Rackley 6ov/9un L15gm 60.0%
#925 DET/LAA UN8.5 -105 1u (S.Pt) Eddings 5ov/14un L19gms 73.7%

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

It's pretty good stuff to be sitting here in late July with 12 of the 15 series this weekend having major importance on how the season will shape up. October hopes and dreams are still alive for several teams, and it will be fun to watch whether they make it happen or they falter down the stretch.

Look at Tampa Bay, sitting 7.5 games back in the AL East and given up for dead a month ago, now playing some of the best ball in the AL as they ride a seven-game win streak. They get the Red Sox on a three-game losing streak visiting tonight. Even though the Rays are playing great, they don't know whether they are buyers or sellers right now, which makes the pitching matchup between Jon Lester and David Price something like a claiming race.

The last time Price faced the Red Sox on May 30, he beaned David Ortiz, which helped incite a bench-clearing brawl later in the game. Price has been in a zone lately. The Rays have won his past five starts, and he hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four outings. Ortiz is not expected to play tonight. Price is a -139 favorite.

The AL East looks more vulnerable than ever, which is why the Rays might need a team to mortgage its future to deal Price. But Lester might be available for cheaper.

The division battle keeps raging with the Yankees and Blue Jays – who are tied for second, three games behind the Orioles – hooking up, both riding three-game win streaks. Baltimore is out west playing the Mariners, who have been struggling lately, but have Felix Hernandez on the mound tonight as a -190 favorite.

Chances look good for two of the contending teams, such as the Rays and Yankees, to pick up a game on Baltimore tonight. Price is rolling, but the better bet may be laying -130 with Hiroki Kuroda against Mark Buehrle. Kuroda is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three home starts against Toronto, including beating Buehrle twice, but that isn't even the best part of this international rivalry.

The Yankees have won 16 straight home games against the Blue Jays. What might even be more remarkable is that Buehrle is 1-11 in 18 starts against the Yankees. His teams have lost all seven of his outings at the current Yankee Stadium. Needless to say, Toronto is carrying a lot of baggage in this one, and it's better to kick a team when it’s down than wager that they'll do something for the first time in ages.

Perhaps the most anticipated of this weekend’s series is the Dodgers at San Francisco for a three-game set. The Giants have won seven out of 10 against L.A. so far this season, but manager Don Mattingly is trying to make a statement this weekend, as his squad is 1.5 games behind in the NL West.

You may have been wondering why Dan Haren, with his penchant for serving up home runs, would get the first start after the All-Star break. The sole reason was so Mattingly could send his best to beat the hated Giants in this series. After Zack Greinke tonight, the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw tomorrow and then Hyun-jin Ryu, while the Giants are on the back end of their rotation.

With the intensity of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry dwindling in their recent meetings, this NorCal/SoCal civil war is the best thing going in baseball. The two teams don't like each other, and the two groups of fans hate almost everything the other city represents. It's a beautiful thing to watch.

Yasiel Puig was hit on the hand Saturday and hasn't started in any game since, but he should be available tonight, especially since he feasts on Tim Lincecum pitching, going 5-for-10 against him in Puig's two seasons in the majors. Hanley Ramirez was hit twice on Sunday, the last one on his hand, and he's been out ever since and is not likely to play tonight.

Lincecum has learned to deal with losing some of the pace off his fastball and has a 4-1 record with a 0.96 ERA over his past five starts. He even collected his first career save in Tuesday's extra-inning game at Philadelphia.

The Dodgers have lost four of six on their current nine-game road trip, but are a -124 favorite behind Greinke tonight. Let's roll with the Dodgers in this one.

Friday's selections:

Yankees (Kuroda) -130 vs Blue Jays (7:05 p.m. ET)

Reds (Simon) +110 vs Nationals (7:10 p.m. ET)

Rays (Price) -135 vs Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)

Pirates (Morton) -119 at Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET)

Dodgers (Greinke) -124 at Giants (10:15 p.m. ET)

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Chris James Sports

21-10 +52.6 Units L14 days

Cardinals -134
Mets +135
Marlins +117
Over Tigers 8.5

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Miguel DaSilva

MLB

2* OVER Arizona
3* NYMets ML
2* Toronto ML
5* Pittsburgh ML
2* Detriot ML

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Sports Handicapper King

MLB
Rays

CFL
Winnipeg

freeloader — LA Angels

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Betting 1st Look with Marco D’Angelo

Washington Nationals ML

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Johnny Banks - MLB
1000* St.L Cardinals
500* Arizona ML
500* Yankees ML
500* Tampa Bay ML

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Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line

dime bet – 912 COL (+112) vs 911 PIT

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BANKROLL SPORTS

2* Tampa Bay Rays -135 (MLB)

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Vegas sports pick

cubs+114

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SPORTSWAGERS

CFL

Winnipeg @ B.C. LIONS

Winnipeg +8 -110 over B.C. LIONS

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Depending on where you shop, there are several different lines for this game. SportsInteraction has B.C. -9 +100, Pinnacle has them -8½ +102, Betfair has them -7½ -125 and bet365 has them posted at -8 -110. When the sportsbooks aren’t all on the same page, it’s usually a good sign for the dog and in this case we’ll play Winnipeg at bet365 taking back 8 points. You might want to wait until game time because eight will be available all day until game time and if you wait, you may get a better price.

This number is actually a gross overreaction to last week in which B.C. woke up and throttled Montreal 41-5 while the Bombers were whacked at home, 26-3 by Edmonton. Had this game been scheduled last week instead of this week, the Lions would’ve likely been about a 4½-point favorite and we say that with conviction because B.C. opened as a 6½-point favorite in that game against a Montreal team that can’t move five yards. Surely the Bombers are superior to the Als, thus, if B.C. opened as a 6½-point favorite over Montreal, how can they open as an 8-point choice over the Bombers. We repeat, this number is an overreaction/under-reaction to last week’s results, which sets up this “buy-low, sell-high” opportunity. We could break down the numbers to support the Bombers as well.

Drew Willy has thrown for almost 200 more yards than Kevin Glenn and Willy’s passer rating is a significant 12 points higher. Glenn has also thrown six picks, which is double the total of Willy. Take away last week’s game against Montreal in which the Lions outgained the Als by almost 400 yards (373) and B.C. would rank in the bottom three in every single key offensive category. The Bombers have just one loss, it was an ugly one but they had been scoring an average of 36 points per game prior. No question the Lions are gaining steam and their defense is much better than the Bombers but we can’t endorse an inflated favorite. Furthermore, teams’ often bounce back from a lame performance and that applies here for the Bombers. Reports are that the Winnipeg had an outstanding week of practice and they’re mentally ready for this one. Winnipeg has also had two extra days to prepare. Lastly, every player in this day and age is very aware of the point-spread. One Winnipeg player even tweeted out that he was rather shocked at the disrespect. That’s another motivating factor for the Blue Bombers. An Inflated number with two extra days to prepare with the superior QB prompts us to take the points.

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

N.Y. Mets @ MILWAUKEE

N.Y. Mets +126 over MILWAUKEE (1st 5 innings)

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

Only Yovani Gallardo’s curve ball rates above-average by both grounders and whiffs. The sinker gets 55% grounders, so that’s good, but no whiffs (3.7%). The same goes for his four-seamer (45% and 3.4% respectively). The change gets ground balls (58%) but no whiffs (7.4%, 15% is average). That’s how a pitcher reworks his arsenal to work after losing his stuff and that’s precisely what has happened to Gallardo. This is basically a guy with one good pitch and at this level you need more for consistent success. Now that the league has caught up to the “new” Gallardo, trouble is brewing. Milwaukee has lost his last four starts in which Gallardo has allowed 34 hits in 23.1 innings. His swinging strike rate has decreased every month and is now at just 6% since the beginning of May. Over his last five starts, Gallardo has a WHIP of 1.47, an ERA of 5.33 and an alarming HR/F of 13%. Yovani Gallardo has become one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and even a mild rebound would only make him average.

Meanwhile, Zach Wheeler is coming on big time. He’s allowed just one run in each of his last four games while pitching into the seventh inning in three of them and six full in the other. That makes him a nice value play in five innings. Over his last 27 innings, Wheeler has struck out 25 batters and now has 112 K’s in 114 innings. His 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity is the sixth-highest among qualified NL SP. Wheeler does have a below average 1.36 WHIP but an unlucky 36% hit rate in the first two months is the reason for that elevated WHIP. With a 15% swing and miss rate and 54% groundball rate over his last five starts, Wheeler and the Mets are such a live pooch here in the first five innings and that’s the way we’ll play it.


Arizona @ PHILADELPHIA

Arizona -½ +104 overPHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

These two have identical records at 44-58 but the difference is that the D-Backs are playing well while the Phillies are not. Arizona has won five of its past eight games while the Phillies have two wins in their last nine. The Snakes also have a significant edge on the mound with Wade Miley against Kyle Kendrick. Miley has thrown five gems in his past eight starts. Overall, he’s struck out 125 batters while issuing just 39 walks in 134 innings. He also comes in with a 55% groundball rate and an 11% swing and miss rate since the beginning of June. Miley posted a 2.76 ERA over the past month and has done his best work on the road with a 2.85 ERA, compared to 5.45 at home. The Phillies'.689 OPS against LHP is in the middle of the league but they have hit poorly at home. They are averaging only 3.5 runs per game in Citizens Bank Park, where their .653 home OPS ranks 14th in the NL.

Kendrick has a 4.87 ERA and an xERA of 4.41. Over his last 31 innings covering five starts he has an ERA of 6.89. It's hard to find anything to get excited about in Kendrick's skills. He has improved control but in the process gave back much of his 2012-2013 strikeout rate improvement. Luck has turned against him (66% strand rate) after benefiting from somewhat lucky hit and strand rates the previous two seasons. Kendrick teased us with a couple of decent years and a nice uptick in strikeout rate in 2012. But there's not much upside in this skill set except that he can take the ball every fifth day. In the end, the weak strikeout numbers, middling xERA and his disaster risk all make Kendrick at best an innings eater.


Pittsburgh @ COLORADO

Pittsburgh -½ +109 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings)

Don’t expect lightning to strike twice here. Brett Anderson went into Pittsburgh last week and threw a seven-inning, four-hit, one-run gem against these Pirates. That’s nice but Anderson is a guy that is made of glass (he has spent the equivalent of two years on the disabled list since 2011) and rarely puts together back-to-back strong games. Anderson’s fast ball tops out at 89 MPH. He’s basically a two-pitch pitcher that relies heavily on a slider that sometimes works and sometimes does not. At Coors, he’s allowed 20 hits in 11 innings while walking six batters and striking out five. Anderson has a BAA of .392 at home to go along with a 6.55 ERA and it sure doesn’t help that he’s pitching for a team that has one win in their past eight games.

Charlie Morton is the Rodney Dangerfield of starting pitchers. When healthy he’s been electric for three years running but does not get nearly the same respect as other dominant starters. Morton’s 55% groundball rate has remained consistent throughout his entire career. Over his last five starts covering 33 innings, Morton has struck out 30 batters and walked nine. Last month, his huge surge in strikeouts was supported by his 12% swing and miss rate. Only Clayton Kershaw had a higher strikeout rate than Morton's 11 per nine among pitchers with a 50%+ groundball rate. Yeah, we said Clayton Kershaw. Invest.

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Maddux Sports

MLB

10* Colorado Rockies

10* Cleveland Indians

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The official bets just continue to refuse to lose! Great work on the White Sox game yesterday as we power our ways to yet another big win! The official betting series are a perfect 17-0 so far this year, while the unofficial series are an astounding 26-1!
As a matter of fact, the system has been so astonishingly accurate that just the official {A} bets alone have won 14 out of 17 times!
Thanks for believing in me, and riding along in this incredible journey. Having you in on this brilliant winning adventure has been a gratefully satisfying experience I'll never forget. And as astonishing as our winning run has been, I'm convinced that our best days are still ahead!
The bets for today on July 25 are:
Tampa Bay {A} bet - Official bet
Colorado {A} bet - Unofficial bet (does not pass RPI filter)
All the best,
Tony the sports betting "Champ"

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K

S.D.* +150 At this price I'll take the Padres. I just think they are playing better baseball right now and are playing with confidence. 4-2 since the break. I also believe we get the better pitcher with Hahn. On the road this year, 3-0, 1.50era & .129oppBA.

Ariz RL* +120 I wish my Phillies were better this year but they aren't. I just think right now they are more concerned with who will be traded and who is staying. There's a reason they a dog at home vs. the D'backs.