Phelps, Yankees ice cold on the road
Stephen Campbell
The New York Yankees have been having an awful time when David Phelps has started on the road recently. In Phelps' last nine starts away from Yankees Stadium, the Bronx Bombers are a pitiful 1-8. He'll get the nod when the Yankees face off against the Texas Rangers in the Lone Star State Monday.
BetOnline presently lists the Rangers as -146 faves with a total of eight.
Jays, Red Sox trending Over
Stephen Campbell
When the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox have gotten together lately, there hasn't been any shortage of runs. The O/U is 6-0-1 in the last seven matchups between the two AL East clubs. They'll begin a three-game series at Fenway Park Monday.
The BoSox are presently -132 favorites with a total of 8.5, per BetOnline.
Oberholtzer, Astros on an Under tear at home
Stephen Campbell
Houston Astros pitcher Brett Oberholtzer has been a fantastic play for Under bettors when starting at home this season. In the 25-year-old's last 11 outings at Minute Maid Park, the Under is 9-1-1.
The 'Stros send Oberholtzer to the mound when they host the AL-West leading Oakland A's Monday. BetOnline currenly has the Athletics as -180 faves with a total of 8.5.
Under on fire with Kennedy on the road
Stephen Campbell
San Diego Padres Ian Kennedy continues to be a fantastic Under play on the road. In the 29-year-old's last 11 starts away from Petco Park, the Under is a scorching hot 10-1.
Kennedy gets the ball for the Padres when they renew acquaintances with the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field Monday afternoon. BetOnline currently has the Braves as -156 faves with a total of seven.
Fish prevailing as underdogs
Stephen Campbell
The term "underdog" hasn't meant much to the Miami Marlins as of late. In their last seven games when listed as dogs through Sunday, the Fish are 6-1.
Miami happens to currently be +126 home dogs against the Washington Nationals Monday. The total for the game is presently at 7.5, per BetOnline.
This club is red-hot on the Under
Stephen Campbell
The Cincinnati Reds have been on a tear for Under backers in recent matchups, evidenced by all of their last six games going under the total as of Sunday. Cincy hosts the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park Monday.
The Reds are currently -127 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of 7.5, per BetOnline.
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, JULY 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 7/28/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
•Sox Consider Trade For Matt Kemp: He has had debilitating ankle and shoulder injuries that have limited his play the last two seasons, is still owed roughly $118 million on a contract that runs through 2019, and has a mixed reputation as a clubhouse presence, but the Red Sox are considering making a move for Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp, according to a club source. With the Sox in need of more offensive production in the outfield, the right-handed-hitting Kemp could be the major piece in a trade for Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, especially with the Dodgers reluctant to part with top outfield prospect Joc Pederson.
Kemp has had two operations on his left shoulder since 2012 and another on his left ankle in October. He was limited to 73 games in 2013, and the Dodgers determined that the loss of mobility due to his ankle injury limits him to playing one of the corner outfield positions instead of center field. Center field was the position he played in 2010, when he finished runner-up in the National League MVP voting by hitting .324 with a .399 OBP, .586 slugging percentage, 39 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He has put up much more modest numbers this season, posting a .273/.339/.429/.768 slash line, with 8 home runs and 5 stolen bases in 10 attempts. The Dodgers already have five outfielders for three spots, with Pederson knocking on the door, so it makes sense they would consider moving Kemp.
Making a trade problematic is Kemp's contract; the Dodgers would have to be willing to eat a considerable sum for the deal to make any sense for Boston to make it. They might be willing to do so for a pitcher of Lester's magnitude, though again, with no assurances that Lester would be no more than a two-month rental, that also would seem to limit how much the Dodgers would give. The Sox would almost certainly prefer a package built around Pederson. On Saturday, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti addressed speculation that the Dodgers have some interest in Lester.
"You know what? We may not do anything," Colletti said, according to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. "We've still got a club that's solid, that still has upside to it, so I think there's still more in this club. Have we won four in a row yet? I think there's still a strong run in this club as it's currently constituted. That said, we've been historically active in July and August, sometimes, and we'll continue to see what else we can do." As for the Red Sox? "It's going to be a crazy few days," Lester said.
•Holland Nears Start Of Rehab Assignment: Left-hander Derek Holland, who has been out since undergoing microfracture surgery on the left knee in January, is on the verge of beginning a 30-day minor-league injury-rehabilitation assignment. Holland rejoined the Texas Rangers on Saturday and is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Monday. If all goes well, he will began a rehab assignment with a start at Double-A Frisco on Wednesday night against Midland of the Oakland organization.
That would put him on course to return in late August. Before the second half began, general manager Jon Daniels said the club had considered shutting down Holland until next spring but believes he can benefit from pitching again this season. “You start thinking about what’s most important,” Daniels said. “With that being said, he has worked out so hard to come back. I think there is some benefit to him from a mental standpoint to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
•Yankees Eyeing Willingham, Other Bats, In Addition To Rotation Help: The Yankees, perhaps as concerned about their offensive issues as their rotation, are looking at outfielder Josh Willingham and some other bats. The Yankees may actually prefer Willingham to Marlon Byrd or Alex Rios, perhaps partly because of Willingham's reasonable $7 million salary and status as a free agent after the season, though Byrd and Rios haven't been ruled out. Rios makes $12 million, with a $2 million buyout of a $14 million team option, and Byrd has an $8 million salary next year. Byrd's deal does not seem overly high considering his solid production the past two years, but there may be some concern about his fit in the Bronx.
While Willingham is batting .215, he has 10 homers in only 56 games and a .777 OPS. He's always showed good power despite playing in pitchers parks, such as Target Field, and before that Oakland Coliseum and Pro Player Stadium, the football stadium the Marlins played in before moving to Marlins Park. Willingham, 35, missed 41 games earlier this year because of a fractured wrist, but seems to be healthy now.
The Yankees are known to be seeking rotation help after losing four of its original five starters, but the offense has been disappointing, sparky interest in a bat. Ichiro Suzuki, 40, wasn't supposed to be playing every day, and as we know form the leaks of the Astros notes, the Yankees had been trying to trade him previously. Suzuki wasn't the choice of GM Brian Cashman, and was instead an ownership call from the start. The Yankees may have some concernes about the ability of Carlos Beltran to hold up, as well.
•Braves Look At Andrew Miller: The Braves are believed to be looking closely at lefty Andrew Miller of the Red Sox as their prime bullpen target, with some other lefties in the mix. Atlanta has identified lefty in the pen as its biggest need, with Oliver Perez, who interested the Braves in the winter, Wesley Wright, Neal Cotts, Tony Sipp and Mike Dunn are among other accomplished pen lefties believed available in trade. Miller, a free agent after the year, is having a spectacular season in Boston's pen (64 strikeouts and only 12 walks in 39 1/3 innings to go with a 2.52 ERA), and the fading Red Sox have said they are now "listening" to trade inquiries.
The Braves in their pen currently have only one left-hander, Chasen Shreve, who was called up a week ago, in their pen. Shreve replaced Luis Avilan, who was sent down. The Braves have won more regular-season games than anyone else since 2010, but have perennially adhered to a budget of $90 million to 100 million. Since they've gone "over budget" this year with the $14 million signing of Ervin Santana in spring training following elbow injuries to young starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, they aren't expected to have room for even bigger moves. But Miller would be a big help.
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Betting Notes - Monday
National League
•Padres-Braves - 12:10 PM
--Former big league OF Lane is making first MLB start on mound; he played 499 games as an outfielder ('02-'07), has thrown 4.1 scoreless innings this year. He was 6-8, 4.67 in 19 AAA starts this year.
--Santana is 4-1, 3.41 in his last five starts.
--San Diego are 4-8 in their last dozen road games.
--Braves are 10-6 in their last sixteen home games.
--Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Atlanta games.
•Diamondbacks-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Anderson is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
--Bailey is 1-1, 2.25 in his last four starts.
--Arizona lost nine of its last thirteen road games.
--Reds lost eight of their last nine games.
--Under is 3-1-1 in last five Anderson starts.
•Phillies-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Burnett is 1-2, 4.01 in his last five starts.
--Colon is 1-3, 5.13 in his last five starts.
--Phillies won five of their last seven road games.
--Mets won seven of their last eight home games.
--Nine of last twelve games at Citi Field went over the total.
•Nationals-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Zimmerman is 0-1, 8.64 in his last couple starts.
--Eovaldi is 0-3, 6.39 in his last five starts.
--Washington won eight of its last eleven games.
--Marlins won seven of their last eight games.
--Seven of last ten Miami home games went over.
•Rockies-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Colorado is 0-4 when Flande starts (0-2, 7.20).
--Cubs lost both Wada starts (0-1, 6.00).
--Colorado lost 12 of their last 13 road games.
--Cubs lost nine of their last eleven games overall.
--Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen games at Wrigley Field.
•Pirates-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Worley is 1-1, 5.50 in his last three starts.
--Bumgarner is 3-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
--Pittsburgh lost eight of its last eleven road games.
--Giants lost 19 of their last 25 home games.
--Last three Worley starts went over the total.
American League
•Blue Jays-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Dickey is 2-6, 4.47 in his last eight starts.
--Buchholz is 3-2, 3.89 in six starts since coming off the DL.
--Blue Jays won seven of their last nine games.
--Red Sox lost five of their last six games.
--Seven of last nine Dickey starts stayed under total.
•Yankees-Texas - 8:05 PM
--Phelps is 2-0, 2.59 in his last four starts.
--Darvish is 1-2, 5.32 in his last four starts.
--New York lost three of its last four road games.
--Rangers lost 30 of their last 37 games overall.
--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Texas games.
•Athletics-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Chavez is 2-1, 2.60 in his last three starts.
--Oberholtzer is 2-1, 3.23 in his last six starts.
--A's won four of their last five games.
--Astros lost seven of last eight home games.
--Over is 14-8 in last 22 Houston games.
Interleague
•Brewers-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Lohse is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts.
--Odorizzi is 3-1, 3.75 in his last four starts.
--Milwaukee won five of its last seven games.
--Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten games
--Six of last seven Milwaukee games stayed under.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Lane 0-0; Santana 9-9
-- Anderson 7-4; Bailey 9-11
-- Burnett 10-11; Colon 10-9
-- Zimmerman 12-8; Eovaldi 7-13
-- Flande 0-4; Wada 0-2
-- Worley 3-3; Bumgarner 11-9
-- Dickey 10-11; Buchholz 6-9
-- Phelps 4-10; Darvish 11-7
-- Chavez 14-6; Oberholtzer 4-9
-- Lohse 14-6; Odorizzi 8-12
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Nationals Jordan Zimmermann is 44-16 against the money line in night games (73.3%) over the last three seasons. The right-hander's season against Miami has been about as trying with a 1-0 record and 6.59 ERA in three starts. That hasn't stopped the Nationals from coming away with wins in seven of his last eight outings against the Marlins, resulting in a spot-less 5-0 record and 3.33 ERA for Zimmermann.
Diamond Trends - Monday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 16-2 (+15.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
•SAN DIEGO is 37-19 UNDER (+14.7 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.1, OPPONENT 3.5.
•TEXAS is 4-16 (-15.5 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.2, OPPONENT 5.8.
•A.J. BURNETT is 19-45 (-28.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse since 1997.
The average score was BURNETT 3.5, OPPONENT 4.5.
•YU DARVISH is 17-5 UNDER (+11.9 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DARVISH 3.7, OPPONENT 2.5.
•BARTOLO COLON is 13-2 (+12.4 Units) against the run line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLON 6.6, OPPONENT 2.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TEXAS) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(130-38 since 1997.) (77.4%, +65.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -169.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +2.1)
The situation's record this season is: (25-6, +13.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-12, +23.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (85-24, +44 units).
•Play On - All favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (WASHINGTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) - National League, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(39-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +31.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (45-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5, money line price: +120
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 31 (56.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-6, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-13, +14.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (62-70, +4.7 units).
•Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - poor hitting American League team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(141-82 since 1997.) (63.2%, +55.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-104.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4.9, Opponent 4.7 (Total runs scored = 9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 112 (50.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-7, +3.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (51-35, +14 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (86-53, +30.2 units).
2Halves2Win MLB 07/28
+3 units Sunday....
GAME - SD @ ATL: Braves ML (1UNIT)
***COMP***
WNBA Betting Recap - 7/21-7/27
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes (from Monday, July 14 through Sunday, July 20)
-- Favorites went 11-6 straight up
-- Favorites/underdogs went 8-8-1 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 9-8 SU record
-- Road teams posted a 10-6-1 ATS record
-- The 'under' went 10-7
Team Betting Notes
-- Minnesota (20-6) has turned up the intensity, as they try to keep Phoenix (21-3) within hailing distance. The Lynx won all three games in the past week, and went 2-1 ATS during the span. They've won seven games in a row, and they're 6-1 ATS during the span. Next up is a date with Phoenix Thursday night at home.
-- Speaking of the Mercury, they have torn off 15 straight victories, and they have covered 10 straight games. They'll try not to look ahead to Thursday's giant tilt against the Lynx, trying to take care of business first against Los Angeles (11-14) Tuesday night in the Valley of the Sun.
-- Washington (13-13) has suddenly caught fire, winning four straight games, and they're 3-0-1 ATS during the impressive stretch.
-- Tulsa (9-17) picked up a rare win by taking care of equally disappointing Chicago (10-15). The Shock have stumbled in the win column overall, but they are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four.
-- The Sky had their meager two-game winning streak snapped in Tulsa, and they are now just 5-14 SU over the past 19 games with a 6-13 ATS mark during the stretch. That's disappointing considering they started out 5-1 SU/ATS.
-- San Antonio (12-14) have struggled lately, particularly against the numbe. The Stars are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS over the past six games. They'll take on the Sky Tuesday, so something's gotta give.
CFL Betting Recap - Week 5
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes
-- Favorites went 3-1 straight up in Week 5
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 5
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 5
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 5
-- The 'under' went 3-1 in Week 5
Team Betting Notes
-- How bad is the East Division? Three teams are tied for first place with a 1-3 record.
-- Calgary (4-0) won as a slight road favorite against Edmonton (4-1), their provincial rivals. The Stampeders are now 3-1 ATS while the 'under' has cashed in each of their first four games.
-- Hamilton (1-3) picked up its first win, their first game at home in four outings this season. The TiCats moved from the basement to the penthouse in one game. While they're overall record might be poor, they have covered three straight games.
-- Winnipeg(4-1) rattled off an impressive win on the road against the biggest Jekyll and Hyde team in the CFL, BCLions (2-3). The Blue Bombers are now 4-1 ATS this season, too.
-- While you never know which Lions team will show up each game, one thing is consistent -- the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in their games.
-- The same holds true for the Eskimos, as the 'under' has cashed in each of their five outings this season.
Today's MLB Picks
Toronto at Boston
The Red Sox open a series at home tonight against at Toronto team that is 0-7 in R.A. Dickey's last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Boston is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
MONDAY, JULY 28
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. ESTGame 951-952: San Diego at Atlanta (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Lane) 14.473; Atlanta (Santana) 16.338
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); OverGame 953-954: Arizona at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Anderson) 13.911; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.647
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); OverGame 955-956: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.402; NY Mets (Colon) 14.089
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); OverGame 957-958: Washington at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.188; Miami (Eovaldi) 16.023
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+125); OverGame 959-960: Colorado at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Flande) 13.306; Cubs (Wada) 17.064
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 4; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-145); N/AGame 961-962: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Worley) 15.761; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 17.378
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); UnderGame 963-964: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 13.415; Boston (Buchholz) 18.117
Dunkel Line: Boston by 4 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); UnderGame 965-966: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 11.688; Texas (Darvish) 17.729
Dunkel Line: Texas by 6; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); OverGame 967-968: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 15.244; Houston (Oberholtzer) 16.431
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); OverGame 969-970: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.333; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 13.772
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+125); Over
WNBA Basketball Picks
Indiana at Los Angeles
The Sparks play host to an Indiana team that is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games in Los Angeles. LA is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
MONDAY, JULY 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. ESTGame 601-602: Indiana at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 107.703; Los Angeles 117.698
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 150
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5); Under
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Free play MON Braves -160
Cappers Access
Red Sox -140
Brewers +110
Gamblers Data
Free Plays Monday
Reds/ Dbacks Under 7.5
Phils/Mets Over 7
Hondo
Hondo had his good splitter working Sunday when his victory with the Metamucils overwhelmed his loss with the Small Bears and reduced the deficit to 1,435 moneys.
Monday night: Mr. Aitch will try to avoid a loss with Lohse — 10 units on the Brews to do some damage against the formerly invincible Rays.
Mighty Quinn
Mighty missed with the Yankees on Sunday and likes the Rays on Monday.
The deficit is 388 sirignanos.
Preview: Blue Jays (55-49) at Red Sox (46-57)
Game: 1
Venue: Fenway Park
Date: July 28, 2014 7:10 PM EDT
The Boston Red Sox admitted last week that R.A. Dickey's knuckleballer can be tough to decipher.
An exception for them to that this year has been Xander Bogaerts, who was just given a rest as he works through some issues with his swing.
Dickey tries again to baffle the Red Sox, who will likely have Bogaerts back in the lineup Monday night at home against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto (56-50) took three of four from Boston last week to improve to 7-3 in the season series, with Dickey (8-10, 4.04 ERA) beating Clay Buchholz in last Wednesday's 6-4 victory. Those two starters will meet again in the opener of this three-game set.
Dickey allowed a three-run homer in the first inning to David Ortiz before yielding one run over his final five innings to improve to 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox (48-57) this year. He has one walk and 11 strikeouts in those outings.
"That knuckleball is so unpredictable," said Boston first baseman Mike Napoli, who is 2 for 6 off Dickey this year. "We had it going early then he kind of shut us down."
Ortiz is 5 for 15 in his career against Dickey, who has started at Fenway Park once - a complete game in a 5-2 loss Sept. 22. But Ortiz is 1 for 3 against the right-hander this year, which pales in comparison to how Bogaerts has gone 4 for 6 with two doubles.
Boston manager John Farrell gave Bogaerts the day off from Sunday's 3-2 win at Tampa Bay. The third baseman is hitting .142 over his last 28 games.
"(He's) trying to keep some momentum going with the adjustments he's continuing to work on daily," Farrell told MLB's official website. "We've seen it gain a little traction inside of a given game, but occasionally there's some reversion back to him being a little bit quick to the front side - some of the same challenges that he's been facing for some time now."
Bogaerts' .333 career average against Toronto is his highest against any AL club.
Buchholz (5-6, 5.50) looks to recover after he lost for the first time in three starts Wednesday, allowing five runs in six innings. He walked four and struck out one.
"I let that lead go," Buchholz said. "I'll take the blame for this one, for sure."
The Blue Jays have won the last five times he has started against them at Fenway, with the right-hander going 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA in that span. Buchholz is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in three outings against Toronto this year.
It's unclear if Blue Jays first baseman Adam Lind, out since July 7 with a broken foot, will be activated. He's a .348 hitter off Buchholz.
Jose Reyes is 13 for 39 in his last nine games, scoring one run in each of his last six.
The Blue Jays took the final two games of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium, winning 5-4 on Sunday. The Red Sox ended a five-game slide Sunday, as Ortiz homered for the fifth time in seven games.
Game of the Day: Blue Jays at Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-135, 8.5)
The Toronto Blue Jays look to take advantage of the sinking Boston Red Sox for the second time in a week as they open a three-game series in Boston on Monday. Toronto took three of four at home against the Red Sox to begin last week before winning two of three at the New York Yankees over the weekend, pulling to within three games of first-place Baltimore in the American League East. Overall, the Blue Jays have won seven of nine following a 2-9 stretch.
After dropping the final three games in Toronto, Boston lost two of three at Tampa Bay to extend its misery. The defending world champs scored 14 runs over the final six games of their road trip after producing 14 in the opener of the trek. The Blue Jays swept three straight by a combined score of 20-10 in their last visit to Boston in May.
LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Boston -135 and with some early action on the Red Sox, jumped as high as -139 before settling back down at the opening number. The total currently sits at 8.5.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "These two A.L. East rivals are heading in opposite directions again with the Jays coming off an encouraging series in the Bronx and the BoSox dropping yet another series against a division foe (Tampa Bay). With that said, I do expect to see the Sox put up a serious fight in this series. Clay Buchholz is a better pitcher than his numbers indicate. It remains to be seen whether he can step up against a surging lineup, however." - Covers Experts' Sean Murphy
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have made Boston a -135 favorite. R.A. Dickey has struggled over his last 3 starts (5.2 ERA), but he is 2-0 vs Red Sox this season (3.5 ERA) so that’s why Boston isn't a bigger fave." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag
PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH R.A. Dickey (8-10, 4.04 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (5-6, 5.50)
Dickey got the win after allowing four runs and nine hits in six innings against Boston on Wednesday, just the second victory in his last eight decisions. The knuckleballer has worked at least six innings in eight consecutive starts while striking out at least five in each of his last seven outings. Dickey also let up a run in 6 1/3 solid innings to defeat the Red Sox at home on April 27 but he is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA in five career games (one start) at Fenway Park.
Buchholz had seemingly turned a corner after a rocky, injury-marred start to his season, but has been more pedestrian in his last two starts. He has given up eight earned runs on 16 hits and four walks over 12 innings in those outings, including six frames opposite Dickey last week. The 29-year-old has a 6.32 ERA in seven home starts, allowing 52 hits in 37 innings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of wagers are backing the Blue Jays at +125.
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