-
BOB BALFE
BOSTON RED SOX/TORONTO BLUEJAYS – OVER 8.5
(Buchholz/Dickey)
Clay Buchholz has been brutal this year and the knuckle ball of R.A. Dickey is not what it once was. Both pitchers do give up their fair share of walks and with the win blowing out tonight there could be a few innings with crooked numbers up on the board. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Over
-
INDIAN COWBOY (MLB)
3* Cincinnati Reds -128
-
-
Primetime Insiders
2* Play
Colorado +130
We understand why this line is sitting at 8 with the Rockies playing on the road and the wind blowing in slightly at Wrigley but come on Vegas. We have the top offensive team in the league going up against an overrated pitcher in Wada. Wada has looked mediocre at best this year and that was against the Red and Padres where he gave up 5 earned runs. We know the Rockies are a lot worse on the round but it is hard to believe that they will not get at last 4 or 5 runs agains Wada. The Rockies are 3-6 since the all star break but are hitting close to .300. On the other hand we have Flande who has been torched this year with an ERA north of 7. Unlike Wada, Flande has pitched against some really good offensive teams including the Nationals twice and the Dodgers. The Cubs are only batting .237 since the break and are 2-7 at home. Flande has a three pitch arsenal including 61% fastball, 19% slider, and 20% curveball. The Cubs are average against the fastball and curveball but are dead last against the slider. If Flande can utilize his slider effectively he should have some success against the Cubs as Flande is very underrated. Wada is all about three pitches as well the problem is that the Rockies are top 6 against fastballs, and best in the league against sliders and change ups which Wada turns to over 20% of the time. Once again we realize that the Rockies are not even close to the same team at home but we will take the big dog on the road.
Oakland -1.5 -125 **Oberholtzer is overrated with an ERA of 1.08 at home, 5.00 against the Althetics and is going up against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. While Chavez is going up against the slumping Astros teams without Springer.**
Milwaukee +110 **Lohse has been excellent since the break owning a 2-0 record with an ERA of 1.32. He has had great success on the road with a 7-2 record. The Brewers are better hitting on the road and should be able to find some success against Odorizzi who is slightly overrated.**
1* Play
Toronto +120
-
LineCatchers
Kyle Loshe gets the nod for the Brewers tonight as they face an in form Tampa Bay team which has gone 15-5 in their last 20 games. Loshe has been solid thus far in 2014 going 11-4 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 21 starts. He has given up just 2 ER combined in his last two starts. The Brewers have won 9 of his 12 starts on the road and I see good value on Milwaukee tonight.
Jake Odorizzi will toe the slab for the Rays who will be looking to continue their great form by getting a series win against the Brewers to begin the week. Odorizzi has pitched well at home in 2014, going 3-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His pitch location hasn’t been at its best over his past few outings though, he has allowed an average of 2.3 walks per game. In 11 ‘Night’ starts this year, Odorizzi has pitched to a WHIP of 1.46.
The Brewers have a BA of .280 and averaged over 5 runs per game in 15 inter league games in 2014, they are 9-6 in those games. The Rays have hit just .239 in 14 inter league games this season going 6-8.
Milwaukee Brewers + 121
-
Sportwagers
Toronto @ BOSTON
Toronto +126 over BOSTON
Posted at 12:15 PM EST
The Blue Jays might be ready to make a serious run. After losing 14-1 to these Red Sox on July 21 the Jays have caught fire. They have won five of six and seven of their past nine games. Over its past 10 games, Toronto is first in the majors in team batting average at .305 and they’re in the top three in several other key offensive categories as well. Clay Buchholz doesn’t figure to slow them down either, as Toronto is quite familiar with him. Scared they are not. Buchholz’s last start was also against the Blue Jays in which he took the loss after allowing five runs in six innings and was in trouble throughout. In that outing, he walked four and struck out one. Buchholz takes on the Blue Jays for the fourth time this season and in the three previous starts he has a 6/9 K/BB split over 17.2 IP. In other words, he has not come close to fooling the Blue Jays and there’s no reason to believe that will change in this one.
R.A. Dickey has 37 K’s over his last 40 innings and his knuckleball has never looked better. How do we know that? Well, Dickey’s swing and miss rate over his last six starts is the highest of his career at 13%. Over that same span his WHIP is way down at 1.10, his walks are down and his groundball rate is up. Boston is almost always overpriced and we find another example of that here where Clay Buchholz does not belong in this range against one of the hottest hitting teams in the league.
Our Pick
Toronto +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)
Sportswagers
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +145 over SAN FRANCISCO
Posted at 12:15 PM EST.
We always like playing against San Francisco after a weekend series with their biggest rivals and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Giants are cold. San Fran has dropped four straight and has scored just five runs over that span. The Giants will now take their shots at Vance Worley. As for being mediocre, well, Worley actually posted a negative **WAR (see explanation of WAR underneath this write-up) during a disastrous 2013 season for the Twins and he’s seen both his average fastball velocity and swinging strike rate decline year-to-year since he broke into the big leagues four seasons ago. To be fair, Worley blamed some of his struggles last year on elbow surgery during the previous offseason and biceps tendinitis early in the year. The good news is Worley brings with him a reputation for inducing groundballs, has a career 3.0 BB/9 over 333.1 innings and, it must be said, is still just 26 years old. In six starts and one relief appearance covering 40 innings this year, Worley is 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He’s walked just seven batters while whiffing 27. He’s not going to dazzle but there are enough good vibes surrounding him right now that he deserves a look at this price in a good spot.
Madison Bumgarner is having a decent year and his overall numbers look very close to what he has produced in previous seasons. However, his performance at home has been the extreme opposite of what he has done on the road. In 10 home starts, he is just 4-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 59 innings. He has allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his 10 home starts, something he has done only once in 12 road starts. Bumgarner is showing signs of fatigue as well. His swing and miss rate has declined from 11% in April to 10% in May and June to just 8% in July. The incredibly high number of innings he's thrown (close to 900) by age 24 may be taking a toll and we’ll put that to the test here.
**WAR - Wins Above Replacement. WAR is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player's total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point.
Our Pick
Pittsburgh +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
-
BeatYourBookie
MONDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Colorado +135 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago is 45-85 in road games the last two seasons
Chicago is 49-85 vs. left-handed starting pitchers
Chicago is 27-58 when playing as an underdog of +125 to +175
10* Play Philadelphia +125 over New York Mets (MLB TOP PLAY)
New York is 19-29 when playing on a Monday
New York is 74-96 at home when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less
New York is 84-104 when playing in the 2nd half of the season
=============================================
5* Play Toronto +130 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Milwaukee +135 over Tampa Bay (MLB BONUS PLAY)
-
Bookieshunter
2* Over 8.5 Jays/Red Sox
2* Over 7 Nationals/Marlins
1* Yankees
-
FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball
1000* Play Washington -125 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)
Nathan Eovaldi has lost 27 of the last 44 night games and he has lost 34 of the last 53 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.Nathan Eovaldi has lost 19 of the last 30 home games and he has lost 19 of the last 28 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125.
================================================== ===
50* Play Atlanta -145 over San Diego (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Oakland -165 over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
-
Sportswagers
Arizona @ CINCINNATI
Arizona +119 over CINCINNATI
Posted at 12:15 PM EST
We mentioned yesterday that the Diamondbacks may be in for a big second half after grossly underachieving in the first half. They lost two of three to the Phillies but it was a case of some extreme poor fortune for the Snakes (lots of bloop hits and seeing-eye grounders) that figures to correct in their favor. The winning run yesterday by Philadelphia was a direct result of the ridiculous “blocking the plate” rule that will be done with next year. In any case, the Diamondbacks can put that behind them and take advantage of playing a team that is reeling. Cinci has lost eight of nine and over that stretch they have scored three runs or less in every game. The Reds have scored two runs or less in seven of their past eight and could be in for another long day at the plate here against Chase Anderson. Anderson’s raw per-inning stats make him the most improved pitcher in the majors. Over his last 16 innings, he has struck out 18 batters. Over his last two starts he has victories over both Miami and Detroit, the latter at home, where he had the Tigers off-balance the entire night. Anderson’s swing and miss rate has increased with each passing month and in July that rate was an elite 14%. His plus change-up is his calling card. He shows decent fastball velocity (88-92 mph) and goes right after hitters thanks to his plus change-up and ability to repeat mechanics and arm speed. He keeps hitters off guard with his willingness to throw his change-up in any count and is always being around the plate. He shows an advanced feel for pitching and works all quadrants of the strike zone. With his confidence soaring, Anderson is a great value play here.
All is not right with Homer Bailey. He was diagnosed with a sprained knee earlier this month and missed a start. Upon his return he was taken yard three times by the Brewers. Bailey’s BAA against is .261 but over his last six starts that BAA was at .275. He also owns an average 4.22 ERA on the year. The Reds have lost five of Bailey’s last six starts so it would come as no surprise of both he and the team he pitches for continue to struggle in this series beginning with this one.
Our Pick
Arizona +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)
-
XpertPicks
MONDAY BASEBALL
•Play Milwaukee +135 over Tampa Bay----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST
Kyle Lohse has won 7 consecutive games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has won 14 of the last 22 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher. Kyle Lohse has an ERA of 2.94 vs. Tampa Bay over his career and he has won two of the last three overall starts with an ERA of 2.49.
•Play Toronto +130 over Boston----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST
Boston has lost 28 of the last 35 games vs. division opponents and they have lost 35 of the last 59 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Boston has lost 25 of the last 40 home games after having lost five or six of the last seven games and they have lost 40 of the last 74 night games.
-
Mysystempicks
2* Brewers
2* Diamondbacks
-
First Look with Marco D’Angelo
Milwaukee vs Tampa Bay
UNDER 7
-
Intpicks
1* Under Yankees
-
FALCON SPORTS
Oakland -1 -160 listing Chavez/Oberholtzer
-
THE PROP MACHINE
4-Unit play on the “under 8” (-130) on Yu Darvish’s “Total Strikeouts” in Monday night’s game against the New York Yankees.
-
Powerplay wins
tampa bay -130
boston -135
ny mets -130
cincinnati -135
chicago cubs -135
-
Jeff clement
cincinnati -127
texas -143
-
The Shadow Sports Syndicate
MLB: Washington -140
-
Matt miller
dog of the day — marlins+120
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
Reply With Quote