8-27-14

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pure lock

top play chicago white sox

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King Creole

Milwaukee Under 7

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Andre Gomes | MLB Total

MLB Pick #1: 965 Texas Rangers @ 966 Seattle Mariners
(Starting Pitchers: C. Lewis vs. E. Ramirez)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 7.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on BetOnline

My fair line for this contest is 8-runs so we are getting some value in my opinion w/ OVER @ plus money. This series has been a low scoring one w/ the first 2 games going bellow the total posted, but I think that both offenses will have some edge vs. SP's in this matchup.

TEX SP's Colby Lewis has been ultra inconsistent lately w/ some high pitch count numbers on his L3 starts. His problems vs. LH batters this season are well noticed as he is allowing LH bats to have .352 BA + .406 wOBA against him! Now, here's SEA lineup for today:



1. Austin Jackson (R) CF

2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF

3. Robinson Cano (L) DH

4. Kendrys Morales (S) 1B

5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B

6. Mike Zunino (R) C

7. Logan Morrison (L) RF

8. Chris Taylor (R) SS

9. Brad Miller (L) 2B



6 LH batters on the lineup! This SEA lineup is a bad matchup for him and no wonder, Lewis had some problems vs. SEA on his 3 starts against them this season by allowing 5, 3 & 4 ER's!

On the other side, SEA will send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound and he is basically just filling a spot for them to give some rest to SEA's elite SP's. Ramirez' numbers in this season aren't that good w/ 4.06 ERA, 5.15 FIP & 4.67 xFIP! TEX struggled in the first 2 games of the series because they have faced 2 young LHP's who are pitching well lately in Elias and Paxton. The same cannot be said about Ramirez and therefore, I also expect them to put some runs in the scoreboard in this contest.

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LineCatchers

The Orioles were swept at the hands of the Cubs over the weekend and have recovered by taking the first two games of this series against the Rays, but in my view, tonights matchup is very favourable for Tampa Bay, especially on the mound.

Drew Smyly gets the nod for the Rays and has been solid since joining the Tampa rotation after the David price trade to Detroit, Smyly has gone 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over four starts and has struck out 23 batters. In his last 2 road outings, Smyly has pitched 16 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball and allowed just 3 walks to 13 punch outs. The lefty has faced the Orioles once this campaign, allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Kevin Gausman will toe the slab for Baltimore who will be looking to take a 3-0 lead in this 4 game series tonight. Gausman has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 of his last 5 trips to the mound and has issued 11 walks in that span. In 7 home starts, Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The righty has faced the Rays 3 times in is career, going 1-2 with a lofty 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, 2 of those starts were in 2014. The Rays collectively have a combined .286 BA against Gausman to go with a .375 OBP this year.

The Rays are an impressive 8-1 in their last nine Game 3’s of a road series, I look for them to make to 9-1 tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays + 105

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SHAKER’S SHORTS

#968 Tampa Rays/Baltimore Orioles – UNDER 4.5 -115 – 1st 5 Innings

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K

1* Mets

1* Rays

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DAVE COKIN

Welcome to the first installment of “Wise Guy Wednesday”, a new feature that should prove interesting to follow throughout the coming football season. Each Wednesday, I’ll be running through the college and NFL schedule with a rundown of games that are drawing pro action, thus the “wise guy” title.

A few important notes before glancing at this week’s slate. First off, these are not necessarily plays I’m on myself. I really don’t care what anyone else is playing, be they a pro or a Joe. But like many bettors, I at least like to know where the supposed sharper dollars are going. This can be of substantial value in determining when to play. I might be strictly playing just my own opinions, but the idea is to try and get the optimum number, and being able to garner a good idea of where the betting line on a game is likely to go will undoubtedly pay dividends over the course of a full season.

As to how this information is obtained, I can tell you it’s not based on bet percentages that can be found at various websites. Not that there’s anything wrong with that info, but there are times when it can be misleading even though it’s factual. I prefer to rely on what I’ll simply call excellent sources on both sides of the window here in Las Vegas, from faraway places, and from contacts at key locations back east.

Enough with the preliminaries. Let’s get to the games. I’ll be including the scheduling rotation numbers with these games so they’ll be easy to locate.

#136 UL Monroe drew some sharp early play, but now it’s a major case of follow the leader. One of my contacts said that “everyone and their uncle” is playing the Warhawks at this point, and this is the biggest mover of the week. I would expect some Wake Forest buy back at some point as those who scored UL-Monroe at the early price will be unable to resist a huge middling opportunity.

#141 Temple is a sharp side. The Owls were hit hard by pros a couple days ago, and the sheep are now firing away as well, driving the spread through a key number in the process. My info is that this line will continue to drop.

#151 UTSA is sharp vs. square with the pros grabbing the points. As this will be a later start on Friday, public dollars could push the line back up a bit when it gets close to post time.

#153 UNLV is getting a little support from the pros, while favored Arizona is preferred by the other side, although it’s not overwhelming either way.

#164 UAB took some serious action on Tuesday. I’ll be candid, I’m pretty good at knowing where lines will go before they actually do so, but this one caught me by surprise.

$169 Florida Atlantic is a clear pro/Joe battleground, with, according to two of my contacts, “all” of the sharper bucks on the underdog.

#187 Western Michigan is getting some sharp play, but not as much as the line drop might indicate. Apparently, it’s more a case of scant action, but what exists is more on the dog.

#205 Utah State is drawing some good play, prompting a “$%^&* Tennessee” response from one of my contacts. Bookies have very good memories, and fading the Vols was good for the bettors and bad for the accountants last season, especially down the stretch. So I wasn’t surprised to hear a bit of profanity when assessing the action on this game.

#210 Louisville is getting the sharper early dollars and note that this line has gone through a key number. The opinions offered seemed to indicate it’s more likely to continue ascending as we get closer to post time.

That’s it for the first edition of “Wise Guy Wednesday.” Back with more next week.

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Umpire Streakers

#955 UN 6.5 -105 ATL/NYM 1.05u/1.00u
Muchlinski 8ov/15un L23gms 65.2%

#967 UN 8 -105 TB/BAL 1.05u/1.00u
Barry 7ov/15un L22gms 68.2%

#971 UN 8.5 -110 BOS/TOR 1.10u/1.00u
Guccione 9ov/14un L23gms 60.9%

#959 UN 7 -110 MIL/SD 1.10u/1.00u
Ripperger 10ov/15un L25gms 60.0%

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Rooster

960 SD PADRES under 7

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THE CAPTAIN (NCAAF)

2 Unit Abilene Christian +4.5

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Locksmith Sports

2* - Oakland -156

2* - Tampa Bay +101

2* - New York Mets +114

3* - Tampa Bay/Baltimore Under 8 -110

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Sports Pick Predictions

Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8, -105 (2 units)

Tampa Bay Rays +100 (EVEN MONEY) (2 units)

Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9, -105 (2 units)

Minnesota Twins +100 (EVEN MONEY) (2 units)

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Cappers Finest:

Prez: Yankees +1.5 RL, -140, 2 units
Prez: Rays ML, 2 units
Prez: Rockies F5, RL +.5, 2 units
Nuggz: Yankees +1.5 RL, -140, 2 units
Nuggz: Yankees, ML +160, 2 units
Nuggz, Rays, ML, 2 units
Nuggz, Mets +115, 2 units
Nuggz: Cubs +160, ML, 2 units

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Sammy P

20* under 7.5 Det/Yanks

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Docs Sports Investors Plays

System A
Tampa Bay ML


System B
Colorado/San Fran ov7


System C
Oakland/Houston ov8.5

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Diamond Dog Sports

#960: Padres: +130 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Gallardo/Despaigne

#969/970: Yankees/Tigers: Over 7.5 (+105) (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Greene/Price

#971/972: Red Sox/Blue Jays: Over 8.5 (+110) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Kelly/Stroman

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Trev Rogers

Washington/ Philadelphia OVER 8

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Worlds Worst Picker

Baltimore
Pittsburg
Boston
Angels

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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday August 27, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

You really shouldn’t have been backing the wretched Texas Rangers regardless, but now don’t even think about it the rest of the season. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is being shut down for the season, and while he’s been a disappointment, he’s still was one of the team’s best healthy players left. In addition, ace Yu Darvish also likely will be shelved. I’d be somewhat surprised if Texas wins a single series from here on out. I do think the Rangers will be back in 2015, however. Here’s a look at five interesting games on Wednesday’s schedule.

Cardinals at Pirates (+108, 7.5)

This is a getaway day game, so you could see a few starters take a seat, although both St. Louis and Pittsburgh are off Thursday. I know Andrew McCutchen is still less than 100 percent, but the Pirates can’t really afford to bench him. Normally you favor a low-scoring game in one of these scenarios regardless, and that certainly looks to be the case with the pitching matchup. Ace Adam Wainwright (15-8, 2.52) goes for the Cards. He actually has been a bit off with a 5.29 ERA this month, although that’s somewhat stilted because of a seven-run outing Aug. 1 vs. Milwaukee. Wainwright has dominated Pittsburgh this season with a 0.82 ERA in three starts, although he’s only 1-1. McCutchen is a career .333 hitter with a homer and five doubles in 38 at-bats off him. Neil Walker hits .308 with a homer and seven RBIs. Pittsburgh lefty Jeff Locke (5-3, 3.69) hasn’t lost in his past four starts. Locke hasn’t faced St. Louis in 2014. Matt Holliday is 4-for-8 career off him with three RBIs.

Key trends: St. Louis is 5-1 in Wainwright’s past six vs. teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 6-0 in Locke’s past six at home. St. Louis is 6-1 in Wainwright’s past seven vs. Pittsburgh.

Early lean: I would have gone “under” 6.5, so most certainly will at 7.5.


Cubs at Reds (TBA)

It’s actually starting to get exciting to be a Cubs backer, and you really couldn’t say that for a few years. Top prospect Javier Baez has been up for a few weeks, and while he strikes out too much he has shown tape measure power. Now another of the Cubs’ “Core Four” will debut on Wednesday in outfielder Jorge Soler. He hit .338 with 15 homers and 54 RBIs over 61 games in three levels of the minors this year. His only problem has been staying healthy. Soler will face off first against Reds right-hander Mat Latos (4-3, 2.99). The Reds have lost his past three although he has avoided a decision in them. He beat the Cubs on June 25, allowing a run over seven innings. Anthony Rizzo is just 2-for-15 off him. Jacob Turner (4-7, 5.77), a reclamation project whom the Cubs picked up from the Marlins, makes his first start with Chicago. He was formerly a top prospect for Detroit (traded to Marlins in Anibal Sanchez deal). Turner’s last game with Miami he allowed five runs and nine hits in four innings against the Reds.

Key trends: The Cubs are 1-5 in their past six Wednesday games. The Reds are 3-9 in their past 12 against right-handers.

Early lean: This is TBA because Turner hasn’t officially been announced, but he’s going. The Reds figure to open around -170 with a total of 8. Latos seems to always handle the Cubs, so take Cincy on the runline.


Rays at Orioles (-120, 8)

Tampa Bay got skewered nationally for getting so little in trade for ace David Price, but if we have learned anything the past several years it has been to trust the Rays front office. Arguably the biggest piece they got back was young Tigers lefty pitcher Drew Smyly. He has been excellent in four starts with the Rays, posting a 1.55 ERA. Last time out he threw a complete-game two-hitter in Toronto. Smyly has pitched twice against the Orioles in 2014, once in relief, and has a 1-0 record and 1.00 ERA in nine innings. Adam Jones is 2-for-6 with a solo homer off him. Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.81) is 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA for the O’s this month. He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this season. Ben Zobrist is 5-for-9 with two doubles and two RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Orioles are 5-1 in their past six against lefties. They are 5-1 in Gausman’s past six against the AL East. The under is 8-1 in Baltimore’s past nine in Game 3 of a series.

Early lean: Under at -110.


Marlins at Angels (-144, 8)

Do you realize how historically good that Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton has been at such a young age? On Monday night he hit career homer No. 150, becoming just the 12th player in history with at least that many in his age-24 season. No. 1 is Eddie Mathews, who had 190 dingers. Stanton obviously won’t reach that number this year, but he could catch No. 8 Albert Pujols, who had 150 through his age-24 season. I could definitely see Stanton going yard on Wednesday off Halos lefty Hector Santiago (3-7, 3.38). He has allowed 10 homers in 101.1 innings. The Angels have lost his past four outings, but Santiago has pitched well. Henderson Alvarez (10-5, 2.57) goes for Miami. The Fish have won his past four starts, but his road ERA is nearly 2.5 points higher (3.82) than at home. Only a few Angels have faced him. Mike Trout is 0-for-7 with three strikeouts.

Key trends: Miami is 6-1 in its past seven road games vs. lefties. They are 7-1 in Alvarez’s past eight on the road despite his much higher ERA there. L.A. is 1-6 in Santiago’s past seven Game 3s of a series. The under is 9-1-1 in Miami’s past 11 interleague games vs. left-handed starters.

Early lean: This is a trap game in some ways as L.A. has a huge series starting Thursday with Oakland. I’d take a flier on Miami.


A’s at Astros (+140, 8.5)

The A’s and Angels open another huge series Thursday night in Anaheim, so Oakland wants to have its top four starters of Sonny Gray, Jon Lester, Scott Kazmir and Jeff Samardzija available for that series. Thus, it will give lefty Drew Pomeranz (5-4, 2.91) a spot start in Wednesday’s series finale in Houston. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since mid-June. He threw two innings of scoreless relief vs. the Astros earlier this year. Houston goes with Brad Peacock (3-8, 5.30). His last win was July 8. The A’s have crushed him this year as Peacock is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in two starts. Josh Donaldson and Coco Crisp both hit better than three .300 off him with a homer apiece.

Key trends: Oakland is 1-6 in his past seven Game 3s of a series. Houston is 1-4 in Peacock’s past five at home. Houston is 1-5 in Peacock’s past six vs. Oakland.

Early lean: Over at -110. Both starters are capable of giving up eight runs themselves. Houston might be a good play with the A’s also looking ahead to the Angels series.

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VegasButcher

#1: Toronto Blue Jays -139

Stroman is my 30th ranked starter who has a strong 3.3 K/BB rate, 0.5 HR/9, and 3.0/3.4/3.5 FxS. He has struggled lately but that’s partly due to an inflated .373 BABIP and a very low 57% strand-rate over the last 30-days. His 3.3 FIP during this time is much lower than his 6.6 ERA, indicating a pitcher who continues to pitch well just isn’t getting the ‘results’ right now. Well, he’ll be facing a Boston team which he’s dominated twice already this year. In those 2 outings (back to back at the end of July), Stroman allowed 1 ER, 7 hits, and had a 15 K to 4 BB rate in 14 innings of work. That’s as dominant as it gets. His counter-part is Joe Kelly, who on the surface has pitched ‘well’ since coming over from STL. In 3 of his 4 starts, Kelly has allowed 3 total ER’s in 16 innings of work. Of course his 16 BB’s while only 14 K in 22 innings in the American League, indicate a pitcher that is struggling. Besides, he’s faced the weak lineups of STL, CIN, and SEA in those 3 ‘decent’ starts of his. Today, he’ll be going up against an offense that ranks 3rd overall against right-handers and crushes fastballs and curveballs, Kelly’s two top pitches. Over the last 30-days, Kelly’s 4.7 ERA is lower than Stroman’s, but his 5.2 FIP is almost 2 runs higher. His 15% BB% and 1.0 HR/9 rates have also been very high, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked once again the way he did against the Astros on 08/17. Even after 2 wins in Toronto, Boston is still only 5-10 on the season against the Jays, and they’re 21-33 against the division. I like Toronto’s chances today behind Stroman, and expect the Jays to avoid the sweep tonight.



#2: Minnesota Twins +110

If Madison Bumgarner, Matt Shoemaker, Jordan Zimmermann, or Cole Hamels were pitching tonight for the Twins, what do you think their price would be? Well, Hughes is on the same level as all of them this season but he continues to be disrespected by the Bookmakers. In the last-30 days, Hughes has been even better, pitching like the 11th best pitcher with a pERA (projected) of 2.7, which is the same mark as Felix Hernandez over this time-frame. The reason he’s being disrespected is because he’s facing Liam Hendriks, one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. In 13 limited innings for the Jays this year his 6.1 ERA matched his career mark, and he was promptly shipped to the minors, ending up with the Royals in the beginning of August. Here are some career stats for Hendriks:

LH: 169 career inninings, 3 – 13 record, 2.1 K/BB, 1.8 HR/9, 16.1 ERA, 5.4 FIP, 4.9 SIERA, 6.7% SwStr%

In addition, Hendriks depends on his 90-MPH fastball which is a pretty ineffective pitch, because his secondary offerings are pretty poor. Well, Twins rank 2nd in the league this year offensively against the ‘fastball’, trailing only the Orioles. Twins are 27-29 for +4.7 Units against their divisional opponents, so even though this team is having a poor overall season, they continue to play well within their division. They have a stronger offense in this matchup and much better starter on the mound, and I like their chances of pulling out a win here tonight.