9-6-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins were obviously a major disappointment last week. The defense scored three touchdowns while the offense only had one and they had to hold on for an uninspiring 28-20 win over Virginia.

When your defense scores three times, in one half no less, you expect to win big. But UCLA's offense was that lost last week in Charlottesville. Remember, however, that it was a very early start time for the three touchdown favorite and a cross-country trip. I actually wasn't too shocked to see them struggle.

The offensive line and receivers should play better in this game. QB Brett Hundley is one of 17 returning starters from a team that won 10 games in 2013. There was a reason many had this team in their Top 10 and as a playoff contender. They're pretty good.

Memphis, despite a 63-0 win over Austin Peay in its opener, shouldn't provide the kind of resistence this week at the Rose Bowl. They also have 17 starters back, but that's from a team that went 3-9. I realize Virginia's 2013 record wasn't very good either, but they also play in a better conference.

At home, UCLA should look a lot better. All five home wins last year came by a double digit margin. But the stat that impresses me most is that the Bruins have won 12 straight home games by an average of 22 points per game following a road game.

"I think we may have come out there a little too juiced and had a lot of mental lapses and mental mistakes," Hundley said. "We just have to fix them and come back next week and play a better game."

Don't sell on UCLA yet. They should win big here. 9* blue marlin.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

I'm playing on TEXAS. I'm well aware that Longhorns QB David Ash is going to miss this game. But by now the team should be used to playing without him. Also, with the way the defense played for Charlie Strong in the opener, the impact of Ash's absence won't be as great.

I know it was "only" North Texas, but the Mean Green have a veteran offensive line and it was dominated by the Texas front four. They forced two interceptions on the first seven pass attempts they faced and brought constant pressure throughout the game. They allowed only eight first downs and 94 total yards! That's what you call a dominating performance.

Remember that Strong's defenses at Louisville were very good. Just last year he presided over a unit that ranked #1 against the run in the entire country. That will come in handy facing a BYU offense that averaged 5.5 yards per carry in last week's 35-10 win over Connecticut.

Lest we forget the revenge angle that's in play. The Longhorns got embarrassed last year out in Provo, losing 40-21. They actually came into that game as seven-point favorites. That loss signaled the end of the Mack Brown era. As noted above, the defense BYU will run into here is going to be much tougher.

Ash played last year against BYU and obviously wasn't much a difference maker. As I said before, they are used to being without him as he was lost for the year in game #3 (week after BYU) last season. The 'Horns responded by winning seven of their final nine regular season games.

Look for the defense to carry Texas to victory in this game as we're getting good value and Ash won't be missed as much as you think. 10* revenge GOM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Obviously, you couldn't have drawn up a worse start for Steve Spurrier and South Carolina as they got hammered by Texas A&M in their opening game, 52-28, at home. They obviously weren't ready for A&M quarterback Kenny Hill. None of us were.

This week's opponent fortunately won't be nearly as challenging and this looks like a bounce back spot for the Old Ball Coach and his team. The opponent is East Carolina, a team that just two years ago the Gamecocks clobbered on this field by a score of 48-10. They easily covered the three touchdown spread in that one.

The line for this matchup isn't nearly as high because of what happened last week. Unfortunately, some of the value is now gone because the number has been bet up, but that's still okay. I expect South Carolina to roll in this one.

East Carolina is a team that like Texas A&M will look look to pass the ball quite a bit. Last week, it really didn't matter what the Pirates' offensive gameplan was because they were obviously going to defeat NC Central and they did by a score of 52-7. But I wouldn't count on Spurrier's defense being as bad as it was last Thursday.

What I would count on is South Carolina bouncing back. Only once in the previous three seasons have they lost back to back games. That was in 2012 when they played at LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks. Don't forget that coming into the year, this was the team with nation's longest home winning streak.

Laying two scores seems like a lot if you watched the Gamecocks last week, but considering the mood the coaching staff is likely to be in, plus how we all viewed this team before the A&M game, they're certainly up to the challenge. 10* personal favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

I'm playing on TULANE. Going against Tulane provided me with my first win of this college football season. I have to say that it was a fortunate one though.

Playing at Tulsa and getting anywhere from 3.5 (where line opened) to 6.5 (where it closed), the Green Wave came out and took a 21-7 lead on the road. At that point, I was sweating pretty badly. But not only did Tulsa come back and win, but they prevailed by seven points in double overtime! A real bad beat if you were a Tulane bettor though.

This week sees the Green Wave taking double digits at home against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets opened their season with a fairly uninspired 38-19 win over Wofford. That was at home too. Not sure if I'd want to be caught laying double digits on the road with this relatively inexperienced GT team this early in the season, so I'll go the other way.

The Yellow Jackets were a double digit road favorite only once all of last season. They pushed at Virginia, winning 35-25. They went 0-3-1 ATS their final four road games in 2013.

They are also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games following a SU win, showing that they can't maintain success typically. Since Paul Johnson's first two seasons when they went 5-0 ATS as road chalk, the Jackets are just 6-8-2 ATS in that role.

Tulane is both 5-0 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS its last four home games. The Tulsa team they played last week figures to be improved this year. I can't say the same about Georgia Tech.

The Green Wave had over 500 yards of total offense last week. I like seeing that. They've also had two additional days to prepare for this game. 10* best bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

I'm playing on MISSOURI. Neither of these teams received much of a challenge last week in defeating FCS opponents by wide margins. However, I think there's significant value here in taking a team from the SEC laying less than a touchdown against a team from the MAC.

Missouri came out of nowhere last season to take the SEC East Division. Because of that, most are expecting the Tigers to take a step back this year. Only having nine returning starters plays a big role in that. But the drop off may not end up being as severe as some might think. And if it does happen, it won't be until the SEC portion of the schedule hits.

Toledo lost to both SEC schools it faced last year, one of those games coming against Missouri. While it was a relatively close game for three quarters, the Tigers eventually took control and won 38-23. This time they only need to worry about covering a single digit spread as opposed to the 16 points they were laying in last year's game.

Obviously, Toledo is going to be fired up to host an SEC team. Especially one whose coach was previously the coach here (from 1991-2000). But I trust that Gary Pinkel knows what he's doing by visiting the Glass Bowl. After all, Toledo has lost 10 of its last 11 games against Top 25 teams. That includes a 1-3 SU home record.

A 54-20 win almost always looks impressive, but the Rockets actually trailed New Hampshire last week 14-3. They won't be able to climb out of a similar hole here.

Missouri feasts off turnovers having forced one in a NCAA-record 45 consecutive games. If they win that battle, then this game should be not much of problem. After all, the Tigers are 9-1 SU/6-3-1 ATS in non-conference games. 9* breakfast club.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

triple-dime: Maryland -12.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

USC +pts

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PHIL STEELE / INSIDE THE PRESSBOX

NCAAF

Army 34 vs Buffalo 24 ---- BEST BET

Toledo 31 vs Mizzou 30 ---- "Upset POW"

Navy 35 vs Temple 34 ---- "High Scoring POW"

Tenn 38 vs Ark St. 14 ---- BEST BET

Aub 52 vs SJ St. 13 ---- BEST BET

Maryland 37 vs USF 17 ---- BEST BET

Bama 45 vs FAU 3

KState 33 vs ISU 23

NTex 24 vs SMU 23

Iowa 37 vs Ball St. 23

NWestern 34 vs N Ill 23

Purdue 28 vs CMich 24

Ill 34 vs wku 24

Miss St. 40 vs UAB 14

NMex St. 33 vs Georgia St. 30

Colorado 35 vs UMass 17

SAlab 24 vs Kent St. 23

Utah 37 vs Fresno 23

USC 24 vs Stanford 23

PSU 31 vs Akron 17

Kent 34 vs Ohio 20

Florida 45 vs EMich 7

Miss 34 vs Vandy 10

NCSt 41 vs ODU 27

Oregon 34 vs MSU 27

ULM 30 vs Idaho 20

Minn 31 vs MT St. 17

La La 31 vs La Tech 24

ASU 41 vs NMex 24

Duke 38 vs Troy 24

SCar 42 vs ECU 24

GTech 37 vs Tulane 23

ND 30 vs Mich 27

Tex 20 vs BYU 17

UNC 37 vs San Diego St. 17

OSU 23 vs Va Tech 13

OU 38 vs Tulsa 17

UCLA 38 vs Mem 14

Air Force 24 vs Wyo 23

Boise 34 vs CSU 20

Or St. 30 vs Hawaii 20

TTech 42 vs UTEP 24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

3 Air force
2 Toledo
2 Iowa St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy POD

Notre Dame - The points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsCheetah

Navy -4.5
NCAAF week 2: Washington St. -2.5
NCAAF week 2: Northwestern -2.5
NCAAF week 2: Purdue -2.5
NCAAF week 2: Illinois -1.5
Mizzo -5.5
Ole Miss -14
USC +4 at Stanford
Texas San Antonio +7.5
Oregon -11.5
BYU +10/Kentucky -3 tease
NCAAF week 2: Pitt/BC under 53
Adding this before Maryland line gets even higher, Kansas St/Kentucky/Maryland ML parlay -116
Kansas St./Iowa St. under 58
Toledo +5 getting off Mizzo. Bad luck RAS just hit em it was going up and at 6.5.
Adding 0.5x on USC +3.5 right now -115 it's getting hit hard. 1H might only end up being +0.5 or so which we'll be on too.
ike anything on USC they're winning the game as I've talked about a few times. Just got word they were hit hard so wanted to get more down
NCAAF week 2 totals: Mizzo/Toledo u61 , Idaho/ULM under 58, Air Force/Wyoming u58.5
Making under Idaho/ULM a bigger play
More: Louisiana Tech/ULL over 55.5 Fresno St./Utah over 61.5
NCAAF week 2 add 0.5x Oklahoma/Tulsa over 56.6.
NCAAF Week 2 add: Middle Tenn. St. +16
NCAAF week 2 total: BYU/Texas over 46
NCAAF week 2: Nevada +3.5 for half. Getting off Wazzu for some. Decent middle shot here too.
NCAAF week 1 1H add: USC +1.5 half. Eyeing Penn St. 2H if they come out sluggish vs. Akron.
NCAAF week 1 total add: Old Dominion/NCST over 65

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWER PLAY WINS

Today's Power Plays Of The Day Are:

1 Unit Army -3 (NCAAF)
1 Unit Northwestern -7 (NCAAF)
1 Unit Kentucky -13 (NCAAF)
1 Unit Texas +1 (NCAAF)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo


Arkansas State +16.5 or 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SATURDAY

4* Best Bet = TEXAS TECH
3* = UTAH
3* = HAWAII
2* = Florida
2* = Maryland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From THE PLATINUM SHEET

MICHIGAN STATE (351) at OREGON (352)
Latest Line: Ducks -12.5; Total: 56

Arguably the nation's best offense hosts what could be the nation's top defense. A year ago the Spartans allowed 13.2 PPG, third-best in the nation, and never gave up more than 28 points. They also won their last six games away from home, SU and ATS. Oregon averaged 45.5 PPG last year, fourth-best in the country, and was held to less than 30 points only twice, both times with QB Marcus Mariota ailing. Mariota accounted for four TDs in their opening win over South Dakota. They've won eight in a row SU in Eugene.

StatFox Trends:
Mark Dantonio is 21-6 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins as coach of MICHIGAN ST.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-1 ATS away when playing on a Saturday over the L3 seasons.
Mark Dantonio is 23-9 ATS in road games as coach of MICHIGAN ST.

FORECASTER: Michigan State 29, Oregon 24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cleveland Insider (Early)

CFB
Illinois Fighting Illini -5 over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BONES BEST BET

MICHIGAN +3.5 -105 (over NOTRE DAME) *1* (Total of 4) BEST BET

Color us surprised with this line being 3.5 instead of 3 or 2.5. We think Michigan wins this one outright, but let’s take the points and the hook as gravy! Michigan took the meeting between these two clubs last season 41-30 and 6 of the last 8 overall. It’s worth nothing that Notre Dame has a tendency to come out flat after hammering opponents the previous week – at just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games where they outscored opponents by 20 or more.

AUBURN -33 -105 (over SAN JOSE STATE) *3*

VIRGINIA TECH +11.5 -105 (over OHIO STATE) *2*

OKLAHOMA / TULSA – OVER 57.5 -101 *2*

BALL STATE +19.5 -103 (over IOWA) *2*

PENN STATE / AKRON – UNDER 50 -107 *2*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stevewins
Missouri -3 Buy the hook
Kansas St -11.5
Tennessee -16.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHAKER’S SHORTS

#358 UL Lafayette -8 (1st Half Play)

[bhn2bill]

do you have ATS.they have their LOY today? tkns