See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Lookahead spot
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start and dreams of SEC grandeur are starting to creep in. The Bulldogs have their first taste of SEC competition in Week 4, making the trip to Death Valley to play the LSU Tigers. But before MSU tests its conference might, it travels to little ole South Alabama as a 14.5-point favorite in Week 3.
The Bulldogs rolled over Southern Mississippi but found themselves up against it versus UAB last weekend. Mississippi State was actually out-gained 548-516 by the Blazers, and can’t afford to look past the jacked-up Jaguars – and to LSU - this weekend.
South Alabama, which defeated Kent State 23-13 as a 2-point favorite in Week 1, enjoyed a bye week last Saturday and has been preparing for MSU since the ink dried on the schedule. Hell, there’s a billboard on Interstate-65 outside of Mobile simply stating “It’s Here, Sept. 13, 2014.” Oddsmakers opened MSU as 15.5-point road chalk but that has since been trimmed to 14.5, with that pesky half-point hook standing strong.
Letdown spot
The USC Trojans jumped into the national title conversion with a hard-fought 13-10 victory as 3-point road underdogs at Stanford in Week 2, going from 20/1 to 12/1 to win the college football championship. The Trojans’ emotions are running high after Andre Heidari’s field goal gave USC the edge late in the fourth quarter.
Southern Cal will have to bottle that excitement during a cross-country plane ride, traveling all the way to the East Coast for a date with Boston College Saturday. The Eagles are getting a lofty 17.5 points from the oddsmakers, but a look at the early line moves could give USC backers reason for concern. Books opened Southern Cal as big as a 19.5-point road favorite but have cut that spread down two points as of Tuesday, with early action expecting the Trojans to come out flat.
“I think it’s natural for that to be a concern,” USC head coach Steve Sarkisian told the Orange County Register of a possible letdown in Boston. “As I’ve said all along, whether it’s a rival or not, a conference opponent or not, the way we prepare is what is critical. That shouldn’t change based on the opponent. That being said, I’m still learning this football team.”
Note: USC will be without senior starting LB and team captain Hayes Pullard for the first half Saturday due to suspension.
Schedule spot
Another team making a long road trip this weekend is the Arizona Cardinals. They’re traveling to New Jersey for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff – 10 a.m. in Arizona – with the New York Giants on a short week, coming off a 18-17 win over San Diego (failed to cover -3) on Monday Night Football.
Arizona will not only deal with the long flight and time change but the early forecast is calling for un-desert like conditions in the Meadowlands Sunday. There’s a low pressure system projected to hit the East Coast this weekend and it brings wind and rain with it. The Cardinals are also 0-3 ATS in their last three contests coming off a Monday nighter.
The Giants need all the help they can get. New York’s new offense sputtered versus Detroit in Week 1, with Eli Manning throwing for just 163 yards and two interceptions Monday. Books opened the Giants as 3-point favorites but that spread is stinking like a stone. As of Tuesday afternoon, New York can be had as low as -1 and will be an underdog by the time Sunday rolls around.
Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates -140 over Philadelphia Phillies - pending
Los Angeles Angels -154 over Texas Rangers
(System Record: 90-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 90-68
Rest of the Plays
Pittsburgh Pirates -131 over Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs +131 over Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles -134 over Boston Red Sox
Soccer Crusher
Sport Recife + Santos UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 632-22, won last game)
Overall Record: 632-523-93
Shields has been terrible against the Tigers
Justin Hartling
The Kansas City Royals will be sending their ace, James Shields, to the mound against the Detroit Tigers. However, Shields and the Royals are 0-4 in his last four starts against the Tigers.
Shields has given up more than nine hits and six runs per game.
This umpire means great things for road team
Justin Hartling
The Baltimore Orioles must be happy to see Mike Everitt behind home plate Wednesday. Everitt has guided the road team to a perfect 8-0 record in his last eight games calling balls and strikes.
The O's will travel to Fenway Park and face the Boston Red Sox Wednesday.
Mariners streaking with Iwakuma on the mound
Justin Hartling
Hisashi Iwakuma has been unstoppable for the Seattle Mariners lately. Iwakuma has led the Mariners to six straight victories.
The Japanese ace has only given up an average of two runs per game while shutting out opponents four times.
This elite pitcher has seen no support
Justin Hartling
Alfredo Simon has been pitching just as well as ever over the past 90 days, but the lack of run support has damaged him. In Simon's last 10 starts, the Reds have gone 1-9.
Simon has only given up an average of 3.2 runs per game, but the Reds have been slumping offensively. The Reds have only 2.7 rpg while only topping four runs once.
MLB
National League
Braves-Nationals
Harang is 0-3, 8.59 in his last three starts.
Strasburg is 3-0, 2.48 in his last five starts.
Braves lost six of their last eight games.
Washington won five of its seven home games.
Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Harang starts. .
Pirates-Phillies
Worley is 1-2, 7.64 in his last four starts.
Williams is 3-0, 2.86 in in his five starts for the Phils.
Pittsburgh won four of its last five games.
Philly won 12 of its last 18 games.
Last three Worley starts stayed under the total.
Cardinals-Reds
Lackey is 1-1, 5.68 in his last four starts.
Simon is 1-3, 6.35 in his last five starts.
Cardinals won nine of their last eleven games.
Cincinnati lost six of its last eight games.
Eight of last eleven Cardinal games went over total.
Rockies-Mets
Matzek is 3-0, 0.78 in his last three starts.
Montero is 0-3, 5.18 in six starts this season.
Colorado lost seven of its last eight road games.
Mets won seven of their last nine games.
Four of last five Colorado games stayed under total.
Marlins-Brewers
Cosart is 4-0, 1.27 in his last five starts. .
Peralta is 0-3, 10.93 in his last three starts.
Marlins won four of their last five games.
Milwaukee lost 13 of its last 14 games.
Last five Milwaukee games went over the total.
Padres-Dodgers
Kennedy is 1-2, 5.48 in his last four starts.
Haren is 2-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.
Padres lost six of their last seven games.
Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
Six of last nine Haren starts stayed under total.
Diamondbacks-Giants
Collmenter is 2-0, 1.23 in his last three starts.
Vogelsong is 1-2, 6.33 in his last five starts.
Arizona lost its last four games, scoring six runs.
Giants won ten of their last thirteen games.
Over is 4-0-1 in last five Vogelsong starts.
American League
Twins-Indians
Gibson is 0-1, 6.14 in his last four starts.
House is 1-0, 2.31 in his last five starts.
Twins lost 12 of their last 16 games.
Cleveland is 4-5 in its last nine games.
Six of last eight Cleveland games stayed under.
Royals-Tigers
Shields is 1-0, 1.59 in his last two starts.
Porcello is 0-2, 11.17 in his last couple starts.
Royals lost three of their last four games.
Detroit won 11 of its last 16 home games.
Eight of last ten Royal games stayed under total.
Orioles-Red Sox
Chen is 2-0, 2.81 in his last five starts.
Workman is 0-7, 7.25 in his last eight starts.
Baltimore won 12 of its last 16 games.
Red Sox lost 11 of their last 13 home games.
Last four Boston games stayed under the total.
Rays-Bronx
Odorizzi is 1-0, 0.00 in his last two starts.
Capuano is 1-1, 5.79 in his last five starts.
Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.
Bronx lost six of its last nine games.
Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Tampa Bay games.
Angels-Rangers
Shoemaker is 4-0, 1.44 in his last five starts.
Tepesch is 0-2, 6.23 in his last three starts.
Angels won 12 of their last 14 games.
Texas lost nine of its last ten games.
Seven of last ten Texas games stayed under total.
A's-White Sox
Samardzija is 1-4, 5.18 in his last five starts.
Bassitt allowed five runs in 6.1 IP in his first MLB start.
Oakland lost nine of its last twelve games.
White Sox lost five of their last six games.
Eight of last twelve Oakland games stayed under.
Astros-Mariners
Tropeano is making MLB debut; he was 9-5, 3.03 in 20 AAA starts.
Iwakuma is 5-0, 3.57 in his last six starts.
Astros won seven of their last nine games.
Mariners won six of their last eight games.
Last four Houston games stayed under the total. .
Interleague games
Cubs-Blue Jays
Hemdricks is 5-0, 2.30 in his last seven starts.
Hutchison is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.
Cubs lost their last five games, scoring nine runs.
Toronto won eight of its last ten games.
Six of last nine Toronto home games stayed under.
Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Harang 13-16 (1-9 last 10); Strasburg 16-14
-- Worley 8-6; Williams 1-1/4-1
-- Matzek 5-11 (3-0 last 3); Montero 0-6
-- Lackey 12-9/5-2; Simon 16-12 (1-9 last 10);
-- Cosart 11-9/5-1; Peralta 15-12
-- Kennedy 14-15; Haren 14-14
-- Collmenter 16-8; Vogelsong 14-14
-- Chen 17-10; Workman 2-11 (0-9 last 9)
-- Gibson 11-16; House 9-5
-- Shields 18-12; Porcello 16-11
-- Odorizzi 12-16; Capuano 4-4
-- Shoemaker 14-4; Tepesch 7-11
-- Samardzija 3-14/7-5; Bassitt 0-1
-- Tropeano 0-0; Iwakuma 16-8 (6-0 last 6)
-- Hendricks 9-1; Hutchison 14-14
Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Harang 8-29; Strasburg 11-30
-- Worley 3-14; Williams 2-7
-- Matzek 6-16; Montero 1-6
-- Lackey 6-28; Simon 9-28
-- Cosart 9-26; Peralta 6-27
-- Kennedy 8-29; Haren 13-28
-- Collmenter 9-25; Vogelsong 6-28
-- Chen 9-27; Workman 7-13
-- Gibson 6-27; House 6-16
-- Shields 7-30; Porcello 10-27
-- Odorizzi 4-28; Capuano 4-8
-- Shoemaker 2-18; Tepesch 4-18
-- Samardzija 10-29; Bassitt 0-1
-- Tropeano 0-0; Iwakuma 5-24
-- Hendricks 5-10; Hutchison 7-28
Umpires
-- Pitt-Phil-- Under is 11-6 in last seventeen TWelke games.
-- Atl-Wash-- Five of last six Foster games stayed under.
-- StL-Cin-- Six of last seven Hallion games stayed under.
-- Col-NY-- Under is 8-3-1 in last dozen Culbreth games.
-- Mia-Mil-- Last four Bellino games went over the total.
-- SD-LA-- Six of last nine Woodring games stayed under.
-- Az-SF-- Five of last six Gorman games stayed under.
-- KC-Det-- Favorites won 19 of last 23 Hoye games.
-- Min-Clev-- Nine of last ten Ripperger games stayed under.
-- Balt-Bos-- Underdogs won 11 of last 14 Johnson games.
-- TB-NY-- Five of last six Vanover games went over total.
-- LA-Tex-- 10 of last 14 Hamari games went over the total.
-- A's-Chi-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Wolcott games.
-- Hst-Sea-- Underdogs are 13-9 in last 22 Hoberg games.
-- Chi-Tor-- Under is 13-3-3 in last nineteen Wendelstedt games.
Preview: Astros (64-80) at Mariners (78-65)
Game: 3
Venue: Safeco Field
Date: September 10, 2014 10:10 PM EDT
The Seattle Mariners failed to keep pace in the wild-card race after getting shut down by the Houston Astros last time out.
They'll try to quickly regroup Wednesday night as these AL West rivals wrap up a three-game set in Seattle.
The Mariners (79-65) took Monday's opener 4-1 before falling 2-1 the following day, their second one-run defeat in three games. Logan Morrison provided all the offense with a game-tying homer in the eighth inning before Yoervis Medina gave the lead back in the ninth.
Seattle fell one-half game back of the AL's second wild-card spot.
"I like where we're at," Morrison told MLB's official website. "It's a tough loss, but shoot, that's why we play 162."
Houston's Jonathan Villar delivered a two-out tiebreaking single and Collin McHugh combined with reliever Josh Fields on a two-hitter. The Astros (64-81) have won seven of nine behind a 2.04 ERA.
"They have the confidence and they know they can win, and when you can have that, you come out ahead a lot of times," interim manager Tom Lawless said. "It's somebody different every night contributing something to the W, and that's really important for a team."
Houston's victory was just its third over an 11-game stretch against the Mariners.
Hisashi Iwakuma (14-6, 2.97 ERA) takes the ball for Seattle looking to win a sixth consecutive decision. However, the right-hander hasn't been very sharp of late, posting a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts.
Iwakuma gave up three runs and seven hits over 5 1-3 innings to win 7-5 at Texas on Friday.
"I felt good in general," he said after throwing just 84 pitches. "I thought I had good arm action, I thought my pitches were working. It was a tight strike zone but I thought I did well overall."
Iwakuma is 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA over a five-start stretch against division foes. He's also gone 5-1 in his last six home starts while striking out 37 and walking one over 42 1-3 innings.
Iwakuma threw six innings of one-run ball to win 13-2 at Houston on July 1, improving to 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last six appearances in the series. Jose Altuve is 8 for 19 in their matchups, but Chris Carter and Jason Castro are a combined 7 for 38 with 13 strikeouts.
Altuve is hitless in seven at_bats over the last two days and 2 for his last 17 in the series. Carter has hit safely in eight straight overall, going 11 for 28 with three homers and seven RBIs.
Nick Tropeano will be called up from Triple-A Oklahoma City for his big league debut as Houston goes to a six-man rotation. The right-hander went 9-5 with a 3.03 ERA over 23 minor league games - 20 starts - while striking out 120 over 124 2-3 innings.
"It's a great experience," general manager Jeff Luhnow said. "He pitched a full year, so he doesn't need a lot of innings. We need to be careful not to overuse him. We do want to see how he performs against big league hitting. It's an exciting opportunity for him, and it gives our guys a little bit of a breather."
Mariners outfielder Dustin Ackley, mired in a 1-for-19 slump, is expected to miss a fourth consecutive game with an injured left ankle.
Seattle has dropped four of its last six at home.
Today's MLB Picks
Kansas City at Detroit
After dropping the first two games of the series, the Royals look to salvage Game 3 today and come into the contest with an 11-1 record in James Shields' last 12 road starts against a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. ESTGame 951-952: Atlanta at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 14.288; Washington (Strasburg) 15.876
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-200); OverGame 953-954: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Worley) 15.272; Philadelphia (Williams) 16.110
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); UnderGame 955-956: Colorado at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Matzek) 16.023; NY Mets (Montero) 14.675
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+120); UnderGame 957-958: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lackey) 16.286; Cincinnati (Simon) 14.755
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); OverGame 959-960: Miami at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Cosart) 15.442; Milwaukee (Peralta) 13.009
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+110); OverGame 961-962: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 13.593; LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.488
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); UnderGame 963-964: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 15.237; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.238
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+150); UnderGame 965-966: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.037; Boston (Workman) 14.272
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-150); OverGame 967-968: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 14.492; Cleveland (House) 15.980
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-150); UnderGame 969-970: Kansas City at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.930; Detroit (Porcello) 14.461
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); OverGame 971-972: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 16.388; NY Yankees (Capuano) 14.991
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); OverGame 973-974: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Shoemaker) 17.361; Texas (Tepesch) 13.837
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); UnderGame 975-976: Oakland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Samardzija) 15.419; White Sox (Bassitt) 13.901
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-180); UnderGame 977-978: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Tropeano) 16.482; Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.338
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-250); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+210); OverGame 979-980: Chicago Cubs at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hendricks) 12.895; Toronto (Hutchison) 16.380
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Under
MLB
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox September 10, 01:35 EST
When the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox complete their three game series Wednesday afternoon an 'Under' play looks to be the right choice. The 'Under' has paid dividends in 6-of-8 meetings between the two AL East rivals. When Orioles are favorites of -$1.10 to -$1.50 with lefty Wei-Yin Chen on the mound the 'Under' has been a profitable 17-4-1. Another positive for 'Under' gamblers, Red Sox are 27-16-2 'Under' this campaign vs a left-handed starter.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals September 9, 04:05 EST
Washington backers have good reason to believe Nationals sweep the current series and finally pick up a victory vs Braves with Stephen Strasburg on the hill. The Nats are 0-3 this season vs Braves w/Strasburg but with Aaron Harang the scheduled starter for the visitors, Nats are overdue for a win. Nationals have loved home cooking for the last month or so, compiling a record of 14-3 before the home audience and Strasburg is off back-2-back quality starts. Harang heads to the mound winless the past three with a whopping 7.38 ERA and has just 1 victory the past ten on the hill with Braves 1-9 over the span.
Gamblers Data
Free Plays Wednesday
Colorado Rockies +120
Dodgers -140
Cappers Access
Rockies +120
Royals Ev
Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Tigers on Tuesday and likes the Nationals on Wednesday.
The deficit is 210 sirignanos.
Hondo
Hondo’s Brave rave
Hanigan blocked Hondo’s deficit-reduction plan Tuesday when he slapped the tag on Stephen Drew, which led to a Yankees loss that elevated the accounts payable to a beefy 1,620 bragans.
Wednesday night: Mr. Aitch will harangue the Braves for some assistance — 10 units on Aaron to outduel Strasburg.
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
Play On - Home teams (CLEVELAND) bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game
116-79 since 1997. ( 59.5% | 50.0 units )
16-13 this year. ( 55.2% | 1.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | BALTIMORE at BOSTON
BALTIMORE is 49-29 (+21.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.3) , OPPONENT (3.3)
Bookiemonsters
Pittsburgh Pirates -135 (POD)
Money Generators
New York Mets -130
Boston Red Sox +125
Detroit Tigers -115
PAUL LEINER
100* Over 7 Mets/Rockies
50* Brewers -130
ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS
PERRY'S SOCCER CLUB season record (-3.66)
AFRICA CUP OF NATIONS
GABON @ LESOTHO - UNDER 2 -102 (1PM)
BRAZIL SERIE A
CRICIUMA @ PALMEIRAS SP - UNDER 2 +110 (630PM)
ENGLAND CONFERENCE
BARNET FC @ DOVER ATHLETICO - UNDER 2.5 -115 (245PM)
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