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10* Florida Int'l
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3 unit Florida International +6.5
3 unit Green Bay packers -9
DAVID GLISAN SPORTS
AL Divisional Series
(902) Baltimore (Tillman) +110 over Detroit (Scherzer)
(852) Baltimore +130 over Detroit
NCAA Football Game Picks
Arizona at Oregon
The Ducks host an Arizona team that is coming off a 49-45 win over California and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU victory. Oregon is the pick (-23) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 27. Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-23). Here are all of this week's lined games.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/30)Game 303-304: Florida Atlantic at Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 77.177; Florida International 74.405
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 3; 54
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 7 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+7 1/2); OverGame 305-306: Central Florida at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 88.193; Houston 93.525
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); UnderGame 307-308: Arizona at Oregon (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 91.128; Oregon 118.017
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 27; 79
Vegas Line: Oregon by 23; 74 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-23); Over
Today's NFL Picks
Minnesota at Green Bay
The Packers host the Vikings on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at home versus Minnesota. Green Bay is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (10/1)Game 301-302: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 121.893; Green Bay 140.422
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 18 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9); Under
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACF REPORT
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #6 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#305 C FLORIDA @ #306 HOUSTON
TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Houston -3, Total: 52
Central Florida looks to get its offense in high gear when it opens American Athletic Conference play at Houston on Thursday evening. The Knights, who rank 117th out of 125 FBS teams in yards per contest, have struggled on the ground while introducing a first-year starter at quarterback. Central Florida must find a way into the end zone against Houston, which is averaging 31.5 points with a rushing attack that produces more than five yards per carry and put up 399 against UNLV last time out.
The Cougars are well-balanced, with two running backs totaling at least 196 yards and a pair of receivers with more than 220 yards in the first four contests. Central Florida quarterback Justin Holman has completed 60.7 percent of his passes with a talented group of receivers, but the Knights are averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Central Florida has won four consecutive conference openers and owns three straight victories over Houston, including a 19-14 thriller in 2013.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (1-2): Holman threw for more than 200 yards in the first two games, coming off the bench in the opener against Penn State, and went 6-of-11 for 145 in the 41-7 victory over Bethune-Cookman on Sept. 20. Breshad Perriman (eight catches, 206 yards) and J.J. Worton (nine, 150) are two of five major threats through the air. William Stanback gained 137 yards on the ground the last two weeks, and the Knights are 20th in the nation in rushing defense, averaging 102.3 yards allowed.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (2-2): Kenneth Farrow (271 yards) and Ryan Jackson (196) lead the rushing attack for the Cougars, who have run the ball 128 times and thrown it 158. Sophomore John O’Korn needs 37 yards to become the 11th Houston quarterback to record 4,000 in his career, but he is completing only 52.7 percent of his passes this season with six interceptions to go along with six touchdowns. O’Korn’s top two targets are Deontay Greenberry (18 receptions, 297 yards) and Daniel Spencer (21, 223).
•PREGAME NOTES: Houston's next victory will be the 400th in the program’s history, as it stands at 399-347-15.... Worton is four receiving yards shy of 2,000 in his career and fellow Knights WR Josh Reese is 84 away from becoming the fifth player on the roster with 1,000.... The Cougars have forced at least one turnover in 27 consecutive games, the second-longest current streak behind Louisiana-Monroe (30).... Central Florida is 1-9 versus the spread off a home win, and 2-10 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.... The Cougars are 31-15 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992, and 9-2 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers over the last two seasons.
•KEY STATS
--UCF is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992.
The average score was UCF 21.6, OPPONENT 35.2.
--UCF is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 27.9, OPPONENT 23.5.
--UCF is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 straight non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 14.7, OPPONENT 10.2.
--HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 34.7, OPPONENT 20.3.
--HOUSTON is 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 33.2, OPPONENT 32.5.
--HOUSTON is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 23.9, OPPONENT 27.1.
--HOUSTON is 30-13 OVER (+15.7 Units) the 1rst half total in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 15.6, OPPONENT 15.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 37.9, OPPONENT 19.5.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games after a win by 28 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 36.1, OPPONENT 22.1.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 25.2, OPPONENT 30.9.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 27.0, OPPONENT 32.5.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 25 and 26 as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 13.0, OPPONENT 15.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCF is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--UCF is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--UCF is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCF is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
--UCF is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Over is 13-3 in UCF last 16 games in October.
--HOU is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
--HOU is 4-0 ATS in their L4 games following a bye week.
--Over is 6-1 in HOU last 7 Thursday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 48 times, while the favorite covered the spread 25 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCF. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 39 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 35 times. 63 games went under the total, while 45 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 44 times, while the favorite covered first half line 24 times. *No EDGE. 67 games went under first half total, while 38 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
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#307 ARIZONA @ #308 OREGON
TV: 10:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Oregon -22.5, Total: 76
Two of the final three undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams meet Thursday night as Arizona visits fourth-ranked Oregon, which is looking to avenge last season’s 42-16 loss. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, who threw two interceptions in last season’s defeat, leads the Heisman Trophy race with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 74 percent of his passes through four games. Mariota should thrive against the Pac-12’s second-worst passing efficiency defense, but Arizona’s explosive offense has the weapons to keep pace.
Both teams are playing for the first time since September 20th, when the Wildcats used a Hail Mary pass from Anu Solomon to Austin Hill on the final play of the game to record a 49-45 win over California. Mariota was sacked seven times in the Ducks’ 38-31 triumph at Washington State, but he passed for 329 yards and five touchdowns - including the game-winner with less than six minutes remaining. Arizona, which snapped its five-game losing streak against Oregon last season, has won three of its four contests this year by seven points or fewer.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12): Solomon, a redshirt freshman, overcame a slow start and completed 47-of-73 passes for a school-record 520 yards and five touchdowns against California. Wide receiver Cayleb Jones is an emerging star for the Wildcats’ offense, which averages 405 yards and features freshman Nick Wilson - who ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing yards (482) and yards per game (120). The defense allowed 573 yards against California, but linebacker Scooby Wright III has been a bright spot as he leads the Pac-12 with 12.8 tackles per game.
•ABOUT OREGON (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12): The bye week came at an opportune time for Oregon, which needed the extra rest to improve an offensive line that lost tackles Tyler Johnstone, Andre Yruretagoyena and Jake Fisher to leg injuries early in the season. The Ducks’ defense allowed 436 passing yards against Washington State and will be tested again by the Wildcats, who are hoping to repeat last year’s effort as they were 6-for-6 inside the red zone. “It’s a new year, and new teams, and I feel like both teams are better,” receiver Keanon Lowe told goducks.com. “That being said, we remember vividly that feeling of going in Arizona and getting our butt whooped.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Mariota has 7,477 career passing yards and needs just 80 to move ahead of Kellen Clemens for third all-time at Oregon.... Washington State is seeking its first win in Eugene since posting a 55-16 victory in 2003.... All but seven of Oregon’s 51 victories since 2010 have been by more than 14 points.... Current Chicago Bears rookie Ka'Deem Carey had 206 rushing yards last year versus the Ducks as Arizona finished with 304 - the most Oregon has allowed since 2007.... The Ducks, 28-0 at home against unranked opponents since losing to Boise State on Sept. 20, 2008, won 49-0 in the teams' last matchup in Eugene in 2012.
•KEY STATS
--ARIZONA is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 24.3, OPPONENT 30.7.
--ARIZONA is 3-13 against the 1rst half line (-11.3 Units) in road games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 7.6, OPPONENT 18.1.
--ARIZONA is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.9, OPPONENT 20.2.
--ARIZONA is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 4.4, OPPONENT 20.3.
--ARIZONA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 11.3, OPPONENT 24.3.
--OREGON is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 46.5, OPPONENT 16.1.
--OREGON is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 34.6, OPPONENT 27.3.
--OREGON is 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 40.1, OPPONENT 22.1.
--OREGON is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 49.8, OPPONENT 22.3.
--OREGON is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 35.4, OPPONENT 15.9.
--OREGON is 32-13 against the 1rst half line (+17.7 Units) in home games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 19.4, OPPONENT 10.8.
--OREGON is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games versus awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 33.1, OPPONENT 2.0.
--OREGON is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 27.0, OPPONENT 15.5.
•COACHING TRENDS
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 28.3, OPPONENT 37.5.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 20.6, OPPONENT 41.5.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 36.0, OPPONENT 29.5.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) in road games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 23.5, OPPONENT 27.4.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 4-17 against the 1rst half line (-14.7 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 14.8, OPPONENT 17.8.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 8-22 against the 1rst half line (-16.2 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Rodriguez 12.7, OPPONENT 16.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 12-9 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1992.
--OREGON is 16-5 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--OREGON is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1992.
--12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--ARIZ is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--Over is 6-1 in ARIZ last 7 games in October.
--ORE is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--ORE is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--Under is 4-0 in ORE last 4 Thursday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 3 times, while the favorite covered the spread 2 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 4 times, while the underdog won straight up 1 times. 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 3 times, while the underdog covered first half line 2 times. *No EDGE. 0 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 12 to 17.5 versus the first half line (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game against a good passing team - with a completion percentage of 58% or better, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.
(76-32 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.4%, +40.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 14.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 26.5, Opponent 8.1 (Average first half point differential = +18.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-13).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-20).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (134-75).
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL REPORT
THURSDAY OCTOBER, 2nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** National Football League Information - Week #5 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________ ____________
#301 MINNESOTA @ #302 GREEN BAY
TV: 8:25 PM EST, CBS, NFL Network
Line: Packers -9, Total: 47
Aaron Rodgers implored anxious fans of the Green Bay Packers to "relax" and then went out and made sure they were able to do just that with a brilliant performance in a lopsided rout at bitter rival Chicago on Sunday. With a much brighter outlook surrounding the team, Rodgers and Green Bay will host another NFC North opponent when the Minnesota Vikings pay a visit on Thursday night. The Packers are 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, including a 26-26 tie at home last November.
Minnesota is hoping it won't have to start its third quarterback in as many weeks after rookie Teddy Bridgewater injured an ankle during last week's 41-28 victory over visiting Atlanta. Bridgewater, the No. 32 pick in this year's draft, threw for 317 yards and ran for a touchdown Sunday in his first career start, but exited the game in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said he is "hopeful" Bridgewater will play after an MRI exam came back clean, but the quarterback did sit out Monday's practice.
•ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-2 SU, 2-2-0 ATS): Bridgewater was not the only rookie to make a big impression in Sunday's win. Running back Jerick McKinnon, a converted quarterback out of Georgia Southern, ran for 135 yards on 18 carries as Minnesota rolled up 241 of its 558 yards on the ground after failing to score a TD in its previous seven quarters. Jarius Wright added eight catches for 132 yards to help spark an offense that has already lost stud running back Adrian Peterson following allegations of child abuse as well as starting quarterback Matt Cassel and tight end Kyle Rudolph to injury. Bridgewater on Tuesday declined to give a percentage on his chances of playing and his unavailability would open the door for former first-round pick Christian Ponder.
•ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-2 SU, 1-2-0 ATS): Following pair of meager offensive outputs in losses sandwiched around a come-from-behind victory over the New York Jets, Rodgers was spectacular in the 38-17 romp in Chicago, throwing for 302 yards and four touchdowns while compiling a 151.2 passer rating. Jordy Nelson caught two more scoring passes and leads the league with 33 catches and 459 yards while fellow wideout Randall Cobb also went over 100 yards receiving and added two touchdowns to give him five on the season. There are concerns about second-year back Eddie Lacy, who has yet to surpassed 48 yards in a game following his 1,178-yard campaign as a rookie. The defense also is struggling, allowing 235 yards rushing and 496 total to the Bears.
•PREGAME NOTES: Rodgers, who missed last November's meeting versus Minnesota, is 29-2 in his last 31 at home.... Vikings wide-recevier Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 39.3 yards per kickoff return, including a 109-yard TD, in two games versus Green Bay last season.... Lacy scored twice and averaged 102 yards rushing in the two matchups with Minnesota in 2013.... The Packers were outrushed 235-56 by the Bears, and their 73.0 yards per game ranks 28th in the league.... The Vikings are allowing half of the third downs they face to be converted, and only Green Bay (52.6 percent) have been worse.... Minnesota's 134.8 rushing yards per game ranks fourth in the NFC, and their 241 against the Falcons was their highest total without Adrian Peterson since December 11th, 2011.
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•KEY STATS
--MINNESOTA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 17.5, OPPONENT 25.2.
--MINNESOTA is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) in road games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 19.5, OPPONENT 25.2.
--MINNESOTA is 16-30 against the 1rst half line (-17.0 Units) in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 10.3, OPPONENT 15.1.
--MINNESOTA is 18-36 against the 1rst half line (-21.6 Units) in road games after a win by 10 or more points since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 10.3, OPPONENT 14.4.
--MINNESOTA is 19-36 against the 1rst half line (-20.6 Units) in road games after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 10.1, OPPONENT 13.8.
--GREEN BAY is 36-19 OVER (+15.1 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.7, OPPONENT 20.9.
--GREEN BAY is 49-26 OVER (+20.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 27.7, OPPONENT 22.2.
--GREEN BAY is 51-23 OVER (+25.7 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.3, OPPONENT 19.8.
--GREEN BAY is 30-12 OVER (+16.8 Units) after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.2, OPPONENT 20.6.
--GREEN BAY is 40-18 against the 1rst half line (+20.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 or more points since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 14.7, OPPONENT 8.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 25.4, OPPONENT 18.8.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a 2 game road trip as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 32.4, OPPONENT 14.7.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 29.7, OPPONENT 18.8.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 14-4 against the 1rst half line (+9.6 Units) after a 2 game road trip as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 16.8, OPPONENT 7.9.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 23-8 against the 1rst half line (+14.1 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 14.8, OPPONENT 9.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GREEN BAY is 24-22 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 25-20 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1992.
--27 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 23-22 versus the first half line when playing against GREEN BAY since 1992.
--24 of 45 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Green Bay.
--Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIN is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus NFC.
--MIN is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week #5.
--Over is 11-2 in MIN last 13 games in Week #5.
--GB is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--GB is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
--Under is 4-1 in GB last 5 games in October.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 12 times, while the favorite covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 15 times, while the underdog won straight up 5 times. 27 games went over the total, while 18 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 27 times, while the underdog covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 43 games went over first half total, while 36 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS:Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (GREEN BAY) - good passing team (230-265 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
(30-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.3, Opponent 9.4 (Average first half point differential = +6.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (63-32).
Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates +100 over SF Giants - pending
Baltimore Orioles +104 over Detroit Tigers
(System Record: 105-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 105-74
Rest of the Plays
Detroit Tigers + Baltimore Orioles OVER 7
Football Crusher
FIU +6.5 over Florida Atlantic
(System Record: 10-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 10-12-1
Rest of the Plays
Central Florida +3 over Houston
Minnesota Vikings +8.5 over Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings + Green Bay Packers OVER 47.5
Soccer Crusher
Estudiantes LP + Independiente UNDER 2 - Argentina pending
Palmeiras + Chapecoense OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 640-22, won last game)Overall Record: 640-533-96
Sheep
($1000) Under 52 Houston - Central Fla
Bookiemonsters
Play of the Day
Tigers -125
Oregon, Arizona clash
ARIZONA WILDCATS (4-0) at OREGON DUCKS (4-0)
Line & Total: Oregon -23, Total: 70
No. 2 Oregon will look for some revenge on Thursday night when it hosts undefeated Arizona in Eugene.
Last season, these two teams met in Tucson, with the Wildcats dominating the Ducks in a 42-16 victory. The 26-point defeat was the worst loss that an Oregon team had suffered since a 44-10 loss at USC in 2008. Arizona (1-3 ATS) was outgained its opponent that day (506 to 482), but dominated the line of scrimmage, rushing for 304 yards while having the ball for 35:29. The best way to slow down the Ducks offense is to keep it off the field, and the Wildcats will try to do that again.
Arizona is coming off a thrilling victory against California, winning the game on a last second Hail Mary. However, the team has not done well the past three seasons coming off a big win, going 1-8 after two or more consecutive straight-up wins. Arizona has not defeated a ranked team on the road since a victory against USC in 2009, and lost 49-0 the last time it visited Eugene. The Ducks (1-3 ATS) had a week off after a much-tougher-than-expected victory against Washington State. That bye could play a big role in this game, as college football favorites of 21.5 to 31.5 points off a bye week are 51-17 ATS (75%) in the past 10 seasons. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is one of the best players in the nation, but in the game last season, he threw two of his the interceptions he recorded on the season in that defeat. The only significant injury in this matchup is Oregon OL Jake Fisher (knee), who is considered questionable.
In the victory against Cal, the Wildcats scored 36 points in the final quarter to complete an incredible comeback. QB Anu Solomon (1,454 pass yards, 13 TD; 167 rush yards) had a huge game against the Bears, throwing for 520 yards. The freshman from Las Vegas has done a nice job of not turning the ball over this year, throwing only three interceptions. He is a big reason his team ranks in the Top 30 in the nation in passing (366 YPG, 8th), scoring (42.0 PPG, 16th) and 29th in rushing (228 YPG), making the offense very difficult to slow down. RB Nick Wilson (77 carries, 482 rush yards, 4 TD) explodes from the backfield, and is the perfect complement to the strong passing attack. The Wildcats have two wide receivers, Cayleb Jones (29 catches, 475 yards, 6 TD) and Austin Hill (15 catches, 263 yards, 3 TD) that are capable of stretching the defense. In the win against California, Jones had 13 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns. Hill, on the other hand, caught the Hail Mary.
The Ducks have a star in the secondary in Ife Ekpre-Olomu, but he will be able to cover only one of those guys, and does not have the height to battle for the ball the pair of 6-foot-3 receivers. However, the offense should be able to score, but if the Wildcats are going to get the upset win, the defense will have to come to play. Linebacker Scooby Wright III (51 tackles, 7 TFL and 4 sacks) is the leader on a defense allowing a subpar 27.3 PPG (77th in the country). Senior safety Jared Tevis (37 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT) is a talented player that will play a huge role in this game. He will have to make sure the Ducks do not get behind him, while also having to help stop the run.
The Ducks have been one of the top offenses in the country the past few seasons, and this season is no different. Oregon enters this game ranked 4th in scoring (48.5 PPG), 16th in passing (330.3 YPG) and 33rd in rushing (225.3 YPG). There are so many players on this team that can make the can make the big play, but none of them do it better than QB Marcus Mariota (1,135 pass yards, 11.8 YPA, 13 TD, 0 INT) is as effective of a quarterback as there is in the country. He can provide the team with a big play at any given moment, but he also does not take the big risks that can hurt the team. Mariota has also gained 214 rushing yards and three touchdowns. However, his first instinct is not to run the ball, knowing he has teammates that can dominate the game from that position.
RB Royce Freeman (48 carries, 261 yards, 5 TD) is the workhorse back of the group, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. When the team is in third-and-short, this is the guy they are looking to. However, if they are seeking a long gainer, RB Byron Marshall (21 carries, 201 yards, 1 TD) is the man. Like the ground game, the Ducks rely on multiple players to catch passes from Mariota. WR Devon Allen (14 rec, 299 yards, 5 TD) has emerged as the top target for Mariota when he is attacking down the field. Marshall (235 rec. yards, 2 TD) and WR Keanon Lowe (13 rec, 221 yards, 3 TD) are also two guys that defenses have to focus on. Like the Wildcats, the offense is the strength of the Oregon team, but will need a huge performance from the defense to cover the hefty spread in this game.
The defense enters the game ranked 42nd in the nation in points allowed (21.3 PPG). However, that unit allowed Washington State to throw for 436 yards on them two weeks ago. Safety Reggie Daniels (28 tackles) is the leading tackler on this team, but he will be tested a lot. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (10 tackles) is one of the superior cover corners in the country, but he will have to remain disciplined for his team to get the sizable victory. DB Erick Dargan has three interceptions on the season, and he will also be counted upon to help slow down the Wildcats offense.
NCAAF Thursday Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson
College football is back to open up October on Thursday night with a huge game in the Pac-12. Last week’s Thursday night Pac-12 clash proved to be a blowout, but this week’s matchup of undefeated teams could provide a great test for Oregon, one of the national favorites going against an upstart Arizona team that beat the Ducks last season.
Match-up: Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks
Venue: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
Date: Thursday, October 2, 2014
Time/TV: 10:30 PM ET (ESPN)
Line: Oregon -23
Last Meeting: 2013 Arizona (+18.5) 42-16 at Arizona
Oregon has opened the season 4-0 with a big win over Michigan State under its belt. The Ducks are one of the favorites in the national picture this season, but the Pac-12 season will be a great challenge as the narrow conference opening win over Washington State displayed. While Stanford has handed Oregon its first loss each of the last two seasons, Arizona also beat Oregon last season in one of the more shocking results of the season.
Two weeks after then #2 Oregon lost at Stanford, they traveled to Tucson to face an Arizona team coming off back-to-back losses. Three Oregon turnovers helped the upset cause but Arizona dominated on the ground behind Ka’Deem Carey, with the Wildcats posting over 300 yards rushing. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota had an interception on the first play from scrimmage and Arizona was in control the entire way. The last time these teams met in Eugene featured quite a different result with Oregon winning 49-0 in 2012.
Rich Rodriguez has resurrected his career in Tucson with back-to-back 8-5 seasons and the window may be open for the Wildcats in the Pac-12 South to produce an even stronger season in 2014. Arizona is 4-0, but it has not been a dominant start with each of the last three wins coming in one-score games, including a miraculous comeback at home against California two weeks ago. This game could prove to be a pivotal point in the season for the Wildcats as next week Arizona hosts USC and losing back-to-back games could be a big blow for a young team.
In a bit of a surprise, redshirt freshmen Anu Solomon won the starting quarterback job for the Wildcats and he has played well with 13 touchdown passes in four games though he has three interceptions in his last two games. Solomon attempted 73 passes in the win over California while also rushing 16 times as he led Arizona to 36 fourth quarter points. Arizona was lucky to win on a Hail Mary pass in the end, but Solomon’s resolve and leadership should go a long way to building confidence with his teammates.
The Arizona defense allowed big numbers in the Cal game and the Wildcats are allowing over 27 points per game this season. While Solomon has been a bigger passing threat than most expected, this is still a great rushing team, posting 228 yards on the ground Nick Wilson leading the team with 482 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Sophomore wide receiver Cayleb Jones already has 29 receptions this season including 22 in the last two games as the top aerial threat for the Wildcats.
Mariota is a Heisman Trophy frontrunner for the Ducks and he has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in four games this season while also rushing for 214 yards. Mariota has taken 10 sacks already this season and it is clear that the Oregon offensive line is not as strong this year as in past seasons for the program. Oregon is rushing for 225 yards as a team, but that is an average well down from last season when the team rushed for 274 yards per game. Oregon is still the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation at this point in the season, however, averaging over 48 points per game. By season’s end, putting up 46 points against Michigan State should look pretty impressive, but the big win for the Ducks was a bit misleading with 21 unanswered points late in the game.
Oregon’s game with Washington State two weeks ago to open the Pac-12 season provided reason for concern for the Ducks. Oregon had clobbered Washington State in the previous two seasons with the Cougars led by Mike Leach. This year, the Cougars had the ball with a chance to tie the game late and the yardage in the game was nearly identical. Washington State had two turnovers compared to none for the Ducks and Mariota played a simply remarkable game to lead the Ducks to the win, completing 21 of 25 passes with five touchdowns.
Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday certainly exposed the Oregon defense in passing for 436 yards for Washington State and if not for a few key plays it could have been a huge upset that would have completely shaken up the Pac-12 picture. That success should give confidence to a more versatile Arizona offense entering this game.
While an 11-2 season in Mark Helfrich’s first season leading the Ducks is nothing to scoff at, Helfrich has huge shoes to fill taking over for Chip Kelly and the expectations will remain sky high. Next up on the schedule is a huge game at UCLA that many figure to be a preview of the Pac-12 title game at the end of the season. This may be the more important game for the Helfrich and the Ducks, needing to bounce back after a shaky performance and while seeking to avenge an embarrassing loss from last season.
Arizona Historical Trends: The Wildcats have covered in six of the last nine meetings with Oregon going back to 2005, but they are just 3-7 ATS at Oregon since 1989 with just one S/U win. Arizona is on a 97-80-2 ATS run as an underdog going back to 1980 including going 62-45 ATS as a road underdog and 27-18 ATS as a double-digit road underdog.
Oregon Historical Trends: Despite some inflated spreads in recent years, Oregon is 39-32-2 ATS at home since 2003, and 30-26-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2005. Oregon is just 8-13-1 ATS since 2011 as a favorite of 20 or more, however, including failing in all three instances already this season.
There are two additional games on the Thursday night:
Florida Atlantic at Florida International 7:00 PM ET (FS1)
Line: Florida Atlantic -7
Florida Atlantic has failed to cover in three straight meetings in this South Florida series, although the Owls won 21-6 with convincing numbers in last season’s meeting, holding FIU to just 132 yards. Both teams are coming off upset wins last week as Florida Atlantic beat Texas San Antonio, 41-37 and Florida International won at UAB, 34-20. Both teams caught some breaks last week, but the winner of this game should emerge in the Conference USA East race or at least the bowl picture with the victor moving to 3-3. Florida Atlantic has played the tougher schedule and has the better offensive numbers, but Florida International has been stout defensively while creating 17 turnovers in five games.
The Panthers do have the worst third down conversion percentage in the nation as the offense has been very limited. With junior quarterback Jaquez Johnson healthy, the Owls are the more viable offensive team and he had a great game last week in a significant win over UTSA. The spread was nearly four touchdowns for the Owls at home last season as Florida International was a 1-11 team last season closing out the season, but both of these teams have looked improved in 2014. Florida Atlantic is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite since 2007.
Central Florida at Houston 7:00 PM ET (ESPN)
Line: Houston -3
The Cougars have an impressive recent track record at home, but so far this season Houston has been a disappointment, failing in its two biggest games with losses to Texas-San Antonio at home and at BYU. This is the first AAC game of the season and after losing 19-14 to the eventual conference champions last season, this is a big game on the schedule. Central Florida has already lost more games than last season in a 1-2 start although both losses came against quality teams away from home.
UCF has had a lot of time to prepare for this game in what may prove to be a critical game to turn the season around for a program that has been very successful in now 11 seasons under George O’Leary. Both Houston wins have come against FCS foes, but the Knights have struggled this season and the strong run defense for UCF may not be a huge factor in this matchup given Houston’s tendency to pass. Opponents have converted over 50 percent of third down plays vs. UCF this season which is a concern for a defense-oriented squad. Central Florida is 11-6 ATS as a single-digit road underdog since 2005, but Houston is 19-9-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2008.
Game of the Day: Arizona at Oregon
Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks (-23.5, 76)
Two of the final three undefeated Pac-12 teams meet Thursday as Arizona visits fourth-ranked Oregon, which is looking to avenge last season’s 42-16 loss. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, who threw two interceptions in last season’s defeat, leads the Heisman Trophy race with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 74 percent of his passes through four games. Mariota should thrive against the Pac-12’s second-worst passing efficiency defense, but Arizona’s explosive offense has the weapons to keep pace.
Both teams are playing for the first time since Sept. 20, when the Wildcats used a Hail Mary pass from Anu Solomon to Austin Hill on the final play of the game to record a 49-45 win over California. Mariota was sacked seven times in the Ducks’ 38-31 triumph at Washington State, but he passed for 329 yards and five touchdowns - including the game-winner with less than six minutes remaining. Arizona, which snapped its five-game losing streak against Oregon last season, has won three of its four contests this year by seven points or fewer.
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened the Ducks as 22.5-point faves but that is now -23.5. The total opened at76.
INJURY REPORT: Arizona - DL Jeffrey Worthy (Questionable, concussion), WR Samajie Grant (Questionable, concussion).
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s under clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 4 mph.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Revenge looms large for the Ducks who dropped a 42-16 decision as 18.5-point favorites at Arizona last year. With Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez 0-6 ATS in his last six games versus undefeated conference opponents, it would be no surprise to see the Wildcats to lose for the 11th time in a row in an away game off a pair of home games when facing a foe off a win." Marc Lawrence.
ABOUT ARIZONA (4-0 SU 1-0 Pac-12, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Solomon, a redshirt freshman, overcame a slow start and completed 47-of-73 passes for a school-record 520 yards and five touchdowns against California. Wide receiver Cayleb Jones is an emerging star for the Wildcats’ offense, which averages 405 yards and features freshman Nick Wilson - who ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing yards (482) and yards per game (120). The defense allowed 573 yards against California, but linebacker Scooby Wright III has been a bright spot as he leads the Pac-12 with 12.8 tackles per game.
ABOUT OREGON (4-0 SU 1-0 Pac-12, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): The bye week came at an opportune time for Oregon, which needed the extra rest to improve an offensive line that lost tackles Tyler Johnstone, Andre Yruretagoyena and Jake Fisher to leg injuries early in the season. The Ducks’ defense allowed 436 passing yards against Washington State and will be tested again by the Wildcats, who are hoping to repeat last year’s effort as they were 6-for-6 inside the red zone. “It’s a new year, and new teams, and I feel like both teams are better,” receiver Keanon Lowe told goducks.com. “That being said, we remember vividly that feeling of going in Arizona and getting our butt whooped.”
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Ducks last four Thursday games.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
CONSENSUS: 50.17 percent of bettors are backing the visiting Wildcats.
UCF-Houston have history of going Over the total
Stephen Campbell
Central Florida and Houston will meet in Week 6 college football action Thursday evening, and based off of recent matchups between the two schools, bettors need to be aware of their high-scoring history.
In the teams' last five meetings, the Over is 4-1.
Houston is currently 3-point home faves for the contest.
Dogs prevailing between FIU-Florida Atlantic
Stephen Campbell
When Florida International and Florida Atlantic have gotten together recently, the underdog has prevailed for bettors in the Sunshine State showdown.
Dogs have gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games between the Golden Panthers and the Owls.
That's a trend that favors Florida International, as they're currently listed as 6.5-point home dogs for the clash.
Ducks causing headaches for spread bettors at home
Stephen Campbell
The Oregon Ducks have not been a good play against the spread at home, covering in just one of their previous five games at Autzen Stadium.
No. 4 ranked Oregon will try and buck that trend Thursday when they host the Arizona Wildcats in Week 6 college football action.
The Ducks are presently 23.5-point home faves for the matchup.
NCAAF
Thursday's games
Appalachian State trailed Southern Miss 20-14 last week, scored tying TD with 0:06 left, then had PAT blocked and lost 21-20, even though ASU outgained Southern Miss by 66 yards. ASU beat Eagles last three years, by 7-3-21 points- they won three of last four visits here. Eagles are pretty good, losing to NC State/Ga Tech on road by combined total of five points- they won 28-6 at South Alabama last week, even though they only completed six passes the whole game.
Oklahoma State doesn't play a road game until October 11, because they lost 7 starters on both sides of ball; OSU lost 37-31 to Florida State on a neutral field, so they're pretty good- they're 24-9 in last 33 games as a home favorite. Cowboys won last five games with Texas Tech, scoring 59 ppg in last three meetings, winning by 18-38-60 points. Tech failed to cover its last four visits here. Red Raiders gave up 438 rushing yards in last game, a 49-28 home loss to Arkansas- it was so bad they fired their defensive coordinator, saying he coached under the influence. Really.
Arizona State is 2-3 in last five games with UCLA; last three series tilts were decided by total of 8 points. Sun Devils lost QB Kelly; major step down to backup Bercovici, who threw four passes LY, is 9-17 this year. ASU won easily at New Mexico/Colorado, but they have to scale back their offense bigtime now. Bruins gutted out 20-17 win at Texas behind backup QB Neuheisel; check Hundley's (elbow) status for this. There is a big dropoff for them if Hundley sits, but not as much as ASU has. UCLA lost four of last six visits here; they're 5-2 as road underdogs in Mora era. Sun Devils are 9-4 as home favorites under Graham.
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