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NFL
Week 8
Lions (5-2) vs Falcons (2-5) (London)—Atlanta is in freefall, losing last four games while allowing 31.8 ppg (13 TD’s on 41 drives); they allowed 9+ yards/pass attempt in four of last six games, losing all four road games by 10+ points (average score, 31-16). Detroit won four of last five games, scoring two TD’s in last 3:38 to stun Saints at home last game; they’ve held four of last five opponents to 17 or less points. Atlanta is 2-5 this season when scoring less than 37 points. Lions won two of three road games, with favorite covered all three games; over last 10+ years, they’re 6-9-2 as road favorites, but 2-0 this season. Falcons won last three series games, by 13-7-13 points. NFC South teams are 2-12-1 SU in non-divisional road tilts, 3-8-1 vs spread. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-5.
Vikings (2-5) @ Buccaneers (1-5)—Minnesota lost last three games, scoring total of 29 points (two TD’s on last 37 drives); they scored 34-41 points in only two wins- they’re 1-5 without Peterson. Vikings are 1-3 on road, 0-2 outdoors, scoring 13 ppg outside. Buccaneers won last six series games, with four of six by 11+ points; Vikings lost last six visits to Tampa, with last win in ’97. Tampa Bay allowed 85 points in last two games before its bye; they’re 7-12-1 in last 20 games as home favorite, 0-2 this year- they’re 0-3 SU at home this year, losing by 6-2-31 points and two of those three games were against backup QB’s. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Last four Buc games went over total; five of seven Viking games stayed under.
Bears (3-4) @ Patriots (5-2)— After being 4-10-1 as road underdog from 2011-13, Bears are 3-1 this year; visitor won six of seven Chicago games this season, with Bears 3-1 SU on road - they led late at Carolina before turning ball over on last three drives and losing 31-24. Chicago lost three of last four games overall, turning ball over nine times (-6) in three losses. Bears are 3-0 this season when allowing 20 or less points, 0-4 when allowing 23+- they’re +7 in turnovers when they win, -8 in losses. Patriots covered four of last five vs NFC teams; they won last three games with Chicago by 3-4-29 points. Pats are 0-2 as home faves this year, 21-15 in last 36 as non-divisional HF. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 4-4; AFC non-divisional home faves are 0-6 vs spread. Last four Patriot games went over total.
Rams (2-4) @ Chiefs (3-3)—Young Rams hit road after facing top two rivals at home last two games, upsetting Seattle last week; they’ve either won or had 14+-point lead in each of last five games. St Louis is 2-0 as road dogs this year, 11-7 as road dogs overall under Fisher, winning at Tampa, losing 34-28 at Philly in game they trailed 34-7. Chiefs split pair of home games, with dogs winning both SU; they’re 5-18-1 as home favorites since ’07, 2-6 under Reid. KC ran ball for 154+ yards in each of its wins; they’re 0-3 when rushing ball for less than that. Chiefs held San Diego to 251 yards in upset win last week. Road teams won six of last eight games in this intrastate series. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 2-4 vs spread; AFC West non-divisional home faves are 5-2. Last four Ram games went over total.
Seahawks (3-3) @ Panthers (3-3-1)—Defending champs lost last two games, allowing 58 points; they’ve allowed 28+ points in all three losses this year, are 1-2 on road, winning 27-17 in Washington, losing at San Diego/St Louis- they allowed 20 or less points in all three wins, but had terrible special teams game last week. Carolina is 1-3-1 in last five games after 2-0 start, with losses by 18-28-21 points; they’ve allowed 17 TD’s on foes’ last 43 drives. Seattle struggled but won on this field last two years, 16-12/12-7; Carolina scored 14 or less points in last five series games. Hawks are 6-4 in last ten games as road favorite, 1-2 this year. Panthers won two of three home games; they’re 5-5 as home dogs under Rivera. Carolina is 3-0-1 with positive turnover ratio; they’ve been -2/-1/-1 in their three losses.
Bills (4-3) @ Jets (1-6)—Home side won last five series games; Bills lost last four visits here, by 31-4-20-7 points. Buffalo turned ball over nine times (-7) in last two games, but pulled game out last week vs Vikings, when Orton threw TD pass with 0:01 left; he is major upgrade over younger Manuel. Orton led game-winning TD drive late in two of his three starts; Bills are 4-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 0-3 when they allow more. Jets lost last six games, giving up 24+ points in all six; they’ve also lost four of last five post-bye games. Gang Green has only three takeaways in seven games (-9); they ran ball for 218 yards in tough 27-25 loss last week in Foxboro and had extra three days to recover from that. Not sure if newly-acquired WR Harvin will play big role here or not. Six of seven Buffalo games stayed under total.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Jags got first win last week after getting first cover week before; they’re 7-20-1 as home underdog since ’10, 1-2 this year, but have played better since rookie QB Bortles became starter- they ran ball for 185 yards in win over Browns last week, winning field position (by 12 yards) for first time all year. Miami won last two road games by 24-13 points; win at Oakland was first in four tries as road favorite under Philbin. Miami ran ball for 137+ yards in four of six games. Over last three years, Jaguars are 2-6 vs spread in game following a win. Miami won 24-10/14-10 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-7 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional dogs are 5-5. Last three Jax games stayed under total; three of last four Miami games went over.
Texans (3-4) @ Titans (2-5)—Houston started 2-0 this year and last; other than those four games, they’re 1-18 in last 19—how long before they start playing Mallett at QB, seeing as they traded a draft pick for him? Road game here on short week for Texans after bizarre meltdown Monday night when they allowed 24 points in 2:54 after they led 13-0. Texans are 3-2 in last five visits here, 3-1 in last four series games overall. Houston lost last three games, all by 7 or less points; they’ve lost last three road games, including OT game at 6-1 Dallas. Texans covered once in last five games as road favorite. Titans’ last three games were decided by total of five points; they’re 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in divisional games.
Ravens (5-2) @ Bengals (3-2-1)—Rematch of Cincy’s 23-16 (+1.5) win in Week 1, when Bengals blew 15-0 lead, only to score winning TD on 77-yard pass to Green with 4:58 left; he had 131 receiving yards in that game, is expected back here after being hurt (toe), missing couple games. Teams split season series three of last four years- Ravens lost four of last five visits here. Cincy is 0-2-1 after 3-0 start and a bye; they’re 2-0-1 at home, winning by 14-26 points, tying Panthers. After allowing 33 points in first three games, they allowed 107 in next three. Baltimore won five of six games since Week 1 loss, with last three wins all by 22+ points; they’ve won two of three on road, losing 20-13 at 5-2 Indy. Ravens are 4-0 if they turn ball over less than two times; they won field position last two weeks by 16-11 yards.
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StatFox Super Situations
NFL | BUFFALO at NY JETS
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points excellent punt coverage team, allow less than 7.5 yards per return
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) with a terrible defense - allowing 5.7 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yards in their previous game
26-12 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | ST LOUIS at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (ST LOUIS) with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
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EZWINNERS
SUNDAY
3* (255) Chicago Bears +6
The Bears are coming off of another home loss on Sunday, this time against the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall called out quarterback Jay Cutler as the postgame Chicago locker room was very heated. I expect Chicago to respond with a strong showing in New England. The Bears play much better on the road and running back Matt Forte should have a huge game against a New England team that struggled to stop the run without linebacker Jared Mayo. Brandon Marshall might visit Revise Island, but Cutler still has Alton Jeffery, Marls Benet and Matt Forte to catch passes. New England survived against the Jets, and they should be able to score on the Chicago defense, but not winning by this margin. I think Chicago has a great shot at the upset, take the points.
3* (262) New York Jets -3
The Bills had their prayers answered last week as they stole one at home in the last seconds of the game against the Vikings. Buffalo's win did come at a cost as they lost their top two running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both to injury. I don't expect Buffalo to generate much on the ground with a third string running back starting against a Jets defense that stops the run well. Kyle Orton is going to have to chuck it around to win this game and that is good news for the Jets. New York also gets to use Percy Harvin for the first time. This trade was stunning, but the Jets really have nothing to loss. I believe Harvin will have an impact in this game right away either on offense or the return game. Geno Smith played well at New England and that type of effort will pick up the win here. Lay the points.
3* (276) New Orleans Saints -1
This is a huge game for New Orleans. The Saints gave one away last week in Detroit, so this is almost a must win game. Green Bay throttled the Panthers last week and it looks like they have their offense back on track. One area that I think the Saints will be able to take advantage of is the run defense of the Packers that is last in the NFL. I expect a heavy dose of Mark Ingram as the Saints will try to control the time of possession and keep Aaron Rodgers and the offense on the sidelines. The Saints are a much better team at home in the dome and they will need to channel that home field advantage in this game. Another week of rest should also help tight end Jimmy Graham recover from his shoulder injury. Lay the points.
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Goodfella
one and only NFL GOY
over 54.5 Packers/Saints
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Gilztips
2 units - Chargers +7.5
2 units - Oakland +7
Dallas under 50
Philly over 48
Cincy under 46
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Trev Rogers
Saints +1
Steelers +3
Jaguars +6
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Hondo
Hondo’s salute to MC
This isn’t about Hondo and his shared perch atop the Bettor’s Guide Best Bet Standings or his steady and solid work in the compulsories.
No, this is about the torrid pace being set by Mark Cannizzaro, who recently requested Mr. Aitch give him “a shout-out” because of his consistent excellence.
Well, by gosh, he deserves it. So let’s give some Hondo Nation props to Mark and whoever is making his picks for him this season. Cheers to both of you!
Jets over Bills: Ahhh, Buffalo! A journeyman QB plus a thoroughly depleted backfield add up to a legitimate chance for the Jets to break their schneid at six. Actually, if you looked at the Jets schedule before the season, this probably is right where you figured they’d be after beating the Raiders in Week 1 and then facing six elite QBs. Then again, with losses looming in Weeks 9 and 10 (Chiefs and Steelers), they might not want to do anything to jeopardize a shot at Jameis Winston, who clearly was born to be a Jet.
John Idzik on his acquisition of Percy Harvin: “It’s really [a matter of] immersing him into what it is to act like a Jet, be a Jet and play like a Jet.” No offense, John, but judging by the talented troublemaker’s spotty résumé, it would seem he already has figured that out.
Lions over Falcons: This is Part 2 of Roger Goodell’s London Obsession Games. Speaking of Goodell, Ray Rice’s appeal of his indefinite suspension will be heard Nov. 5 and 6, and the commissioner, who levied the ban, will testify. It’s good of him to come out from under his desk for something other than a domestic violence photo op.
Vikings over Buccaneers: Jennifer Lopez reportedly is close to a signing a deal that will pay her $350K per show three times a week for 24 weeks at Planet Hollywood in Las Vegas. If she keeps making that kind of cash, she won’t have to sing at birthday parties for tyrannical Eastern European dictators.
Bears over Patriots: Belichick sent Darrelle Revis home Tuesday because he was late for a meeting. Now Revis knows what everyone else knows: The Hoodie is a real stickler for the rules — except for when it comes to illegally videotaping opponents.
Chiefs over Rams: There was another fence jumper at the White House on Wednesday, but he never made it to the President’s residence because two of the Secret Service’s best agents were on duty and stopped him. Congratulations, Fido and Rover!
Panthers over Seahawks: Props to Renee Zellweger for being named this year’s recipient of the “Kenny Rogers Who The Hell Are You Award.” The good thing about making yourself totally unrecognizable is that if you have any nude selfies and they get hacked, no one will know it’s you.
Dolphins over Jaguars: David Letterman fired his cue card guy, Tony Mendez, for assaulting writer Bill Scheft. Sources say Dirty Dave became upset when one of them almost landed on the Late Show Intern Love Couch, which could have caused serious injury to Dave and one of the interns.
Titans over Texans: With the death of Oscar de la Renta, word is designers and fabric makers are lining up in Chappaqua, hoping to land Hillary Clinton’s lucrative double-wide woolen pantsuit business.
Bill Clinton once said of a de la Renta creation: “I still remember when Hillary walked out in that gown [at his inauguration ball in 1997]. I thought, ‘Oh my God, that’s beautiful.’ ” But what about Hillary, Bill?
Bengals over Ravens: Bill’s always had a great appreciation for Oscar’s work. That’s why he wasn’t upset when he stained the Portly Pepperpot’s crusty blue love dress — it wasn’t a de la Renta.
Cardinals over Eagles: Here’s the latest from Daily News columnist Anthony “A-Wad” Weiner: “Realistically, my political career is probably over.” Over? C’mon, A-Wad, where’s that notorious “I’ll show-’em/-it attitude” of yours?
Colts over Steelers: Accused rapist Sanford “The Cashew” Rubenstein, lawyer and former pal of Al Sharpton, reportedly was turned away at a Manhattan sex club called Checkmate last weekend. The proprietor, having read about Rubenstein’s shortcomings, told San The Little Man: “It’s a game of inches, not a game of inch.”
Raiders over Browns: Emailer Donny Mac points out not everything is going wrong for Rubenstein. He was just asked to star in a remake of a Sylvester Stallone/Kurt Russell classic movie, this one to be called: “Tango and Cashew.”
Packers over Saints: Here’s the Mismatch of the Day: Aaron Rodgers vs. a Rob Ryan-coached defense.
Cowboys over Redskins: How good is the Cowboys’ running game? Some say it’s even better than the one being used by Democratic candidates as they run as fast and far as possible from Obama and his failed policies?
Obama went to vote early at a Chicago polling station, and while standing next to a woman, was told by her fiancé: “Mr. President, don’t touch my girlfriend.” The President calmly responded he wasn’t planning on doing so, which placated the guy until Obama then told him: “If you like your girlfriend, you can keep your girlfriend.”
BEST BETS: Jets, Colts, Packers.
Thursday night: Broncos.
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Norm Hitzges
NFL
DOUBLE PLAYS: Baltimore -1 Cincinnati
INDY -3 Pittsburgh
SINGLE PLAYS:
Detroit -3 1/2 Atlanta
Seattle -5 Carolina
Philadelphia +2 1/2 Arizona
Oakland + Cleveland
Dallas -9 1/2 Washington
Chicago--New England OVER 50 1/2
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Nfac
$300:
905 kc +115
905 under 7 (-105) kc/sfg
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Kevin's Pick(s):
I'm adding a Monday Night pick below, because I want to make sure I get it at +10. And Kyle has added his write ups as well...
2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys - REDSKINS +10 (-110) *Monday
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
Sent Earlier:
4 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS -1 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.48 units)
4 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers - OVER 49 POINTS (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.64 units)
2 UNIT = 2-Team 6-Point Teaser - VIKINGS +8.5 and EAGLES +8.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
2 UNIT = Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns - BROWNS -7 (+106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.12 units)
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons - OVER 46.5 (-108) *9:30 AM EST START SUNDAY
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
Kyle's Pick(s)
4 UNIT = St. Louis Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs- CHIEFS -7 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.64 units)
Do you know how much good luck the Rams needed to win that game last week against the Seahawks? Okay, I won't call it luck, but they pulled all of the tricks out of the bag for that game. They faked a punt deep in their own territory, which resulted in a touchdown. They then pulled off that improbable punt return for 6. Head coach Jeff Fisher admitted after the game they needed to go deep in the playbook because he knew they weren't going to stop Russell Wilson. Well..cheers for the successful trick plays, but that isn't exactly a vote of confidence for your team. That was arguably one of the biggest wins for the Rams in a long time, but now they need to hit the road and play in one of the rowdiest environments in the NFL. This is a good situational bet, and not only that, there are statistics that lean in the Chiefs' direction as well. The Rams are still awful defending the run, there is no escaping that. This week they'll need to face a healthy dose of the run against the Chiefs. KC will hammer the ball with Jamaal Charles, who leads an NFL 3rd best rushing attack. The Rams will counter with their defense that allows 145 yards per game on the ground, 28th, the exact same amount that the Chiefs rush for. They also allow 30 points a game. The Rams only win on the road this season was a squeaker against the lowly Bucs, 19-17. The Rams will also be banged up defense coming into Sunday. Three rookies could be shouldering the load in the defensive backfield for St. Louis this week. A pretty difficult task for them playing in Kansas City. A 10-14 point win for the Chiefs looks realistic in this spot.
2 UNIT = Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans - UNDER 42 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
It could be the beginning of the Zach Mettenberger in Tennessee, or it could just be the beginning of another disappointment at the quarterback position for the Titans. Tough task to ask of Mettenberger to jump right into the fire against a furious Houston pass rush. Jake Locker has been so awful that the Titans are left with no other choice, though. As a whole the passing game stinks, no solid offensive line, receiving core, and the quarterback situation is up in the air. To add to the Titans misery, it is expected that defensive end Jadeveon Clowney will be healthy for Sunday. Tennessee is 27th in the NFL in total offense, scoring only 17 points per game and 320 yards. Now they'll have a rookie quarterback at the helm trying to run away from Clowney and JJ Watt. Mettenberger won't be able to run anywhere, he is a tall lengthy quarterback that doesn't have much mobility in the pocket. The Texans are entering 19th in total offense, and are putting up just 21 points per game on the board. This game could be a work in progress offensively. I don't foresee Mettenberger doing much in his first start against their defensive line. Clowney has been raring to get back on the field opposite Watt. Points should come at a premium, which makes the UNDER 42 look like a solid bet.
2 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS -2 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
Remember the Jaguars bet last week I hit? I am going in the same situational betting direction here with this pick. No I am not comparing the Jaguars to the Saints, but this is one of these spots it is good to take the team everyone is done with. Aaron Rodgers has been hotter than any quarterback in the league at the moment, so it has to mean he comes in and lights the Saints up, right? If it were that easy no one would have a 9-5 job and all would make a living sports betting. I think Drew Brees is too competitive of a player to come back home after last weeks collapse against the Lions and throw up another dud. The Packers should make life easy on Brees this week. The Saints won't be playing against a stingy defensive line like a week ago. This week they get the 2nd worst rush defense in the NFL. Green Bay is giving up 4.6 yards a carry for 148 yards allowed per game. Brees should be operating in short 2nd and 3rd downs, instead of having to force a ball on a 3rd and 10 constantly. The Saints haven't lost at home this season yet, and virtually never do period. They went 8-0 at home in 2013 as well. Betting against the Saints at home is a big no-no. The red hot 5-2 Packers playing the 2-4 Saints looks like an easy bet to make. However, I think the Saints put together their best game of the year Sunday night at home on SNF. The running game against an abysmal Packers' defense will dictate this game. It should be an entertaining game, one in which the Saints find themselves emerging with a victory in.
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Wunderdog Sports
Complimentary NFL Pick for October 26th, 2014
Game: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Time: Sunday 10/26 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Buffalo +3 (+100) at 5dimes
Is a 1-6 team really favored here? Over the last quarter century, there have only been 10 instances of a team this bad after three weeks giving points to a winning opponent. The Jets won their opener, but have lost six games in a row. One problem is a defense that has allowed 24 points or more in each of the losses, while the offense has reached as many as 25 just one time all season. You don't have to be a math wizard to figure out why they are losing. New York just played a big game against their biggest rival, New England, and really spent a lot of emotional and physical energy in that game. So, I don't know how much is left in the tank here. Despite the "excitement" around acquiring Percy Harvin, the Jets season is essentially already over before the mid-way mark of the year. After a good start, Buffalo had lost three of four. They needed a win last week and eked one out 17-16 vs. Minnesota. There's nothing that can infuse a team like a win, and that leaves the Bills in pretty good shape at 4-3. Yes, the Bills are without their top two running backs but they weren't going to get a lot on the ground vs. the Jets anyway, and today's NFL is more about passing than running. The truth is, good running backs in today's NFL are a dime-a-dozen and Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon will likely fill the role just fine. And oh yeah - as far as I know, Sammy Watkins will still be on the field Sunday. Buffalo has gone 7-1 ATS after allowing greater than 150 yards rushing in their previous game as the defense makes a stand. The Jets, on the other hand, are 0-6-1 ATS after laying it all out in their previous game, holding their opponent to less than 90 yards rushing. The Jets will pay the price for last week and as hard as they played it will be tough to get it going after yet another loss. Buffalo in this one.
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Fat Jack
THERE ARE 3 SELECTION ON SUNDAY
#254 tampa bay OVER 42.5
#272 PITTSBURGH +3 (SENT TUESDAY)
#276 NEW ORLEANS -1
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Northcoast
Top Opinion:
SUNDAY AM LONDON MARQUEE - Detroit -3.5 Atlanta 9:30am FOX
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Maddux
255 Chicago +6 20*
258 kc -7 10*
baltimore/cinn under 46
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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS
NFL:
(251) Detroit -3' over Atlanta <>
(262) NY Jets -3 over Buffalo
(263/264) Miami/Jacksonville UN 43
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Victor King
'London Calling': Part Two
The second of three NFL international games kicks off this weekend, as the Atlanta Falcons 'host' the Detroit Lions in Wembley Stadium in London, England. When last we spoke, we reviewed the Miami / Oakland game played on this field on Sept. 28th. That game had a low OU line of 41 points. Final score: Mia 38 - Oak 14. The OVER hit by +11 points. In the last three seasons, these London games have seen 52 pts... 52 pts... 61 pts... and 52 pts. The OVER (4-0 O/U) has hit by an avg of more than 2 TD's per game (+14.2 ppg). This week's line in the Falcons / Lions game opened at 36.5 pts and went up to 47. We will take a slight position on another HIGH-scoring outcome. But again, there are some elements to this game that scream 'caution'. Detroit comes in with the #1 defense in the league (290.3 YPG allowed and 15.0 PPG allowed). And Atlanta is so beat up with injuries, that their offense is in extreme REGRESSION mode (7 and 13 points in last two). Don't forget: Neutral Site FAVS (Lions) have gone 7-1 ATS L6Y!
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sportsinsights
10/26 1:00 PM 262 Play on NYJ -3+100
10/26 1:00 PM 268 Play on CIN 1.5-110
10/26 4:05 PM 270 Play on ARI Under 48.5-110
10/26 8:30 PM 276 Play on NO 0-110
10/27 8:30 PM 278 Play on DAL Under 50-110
10/27 8:30 PM 277 Play on WAS 10-105
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Fezzik
263 MIA / 264 JAC UNDER 43.0
Analysis: Mia/Jax UNDER 43, 3* Play
BAL / 268 CIN UNDER 45.5 2* Play
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Hitting Pay Dirt
Mays NFL: 8-5 +5.05
Falcons +4 * 2 units
AJ NFL: 8-9 -2.2u
Bengals -1 * 2 units
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