10-25-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

10* Miami+1.5
10* Kentucky+14
10* Central Michigan-3.5
10* Temple+10
10* Texas State+4
10* Nebraska -17
10* South Alabama -13

added
189 old dominion +11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

SATURDAY

3* (192) Oklahoma State Cowboys -1

The Mountaineers are coming off of a huge home underdog win over the #4 ranked Baylor Bears last week. The hosting Oklahoma State Cowboys are in a pissed off mode as they were drilled last week in Fort Worth by TCU. I look for the roles to be reversed in this game. WV will have a hard time matching last week's mattress burning intensity on the road in Stillwater. The Pokes will be focused and should not have a problem putting points on the board against a Mountaineer defense that has allowed an average of over 35 points per game in their two road games at Texas Tech and Maryland. The Cowboys have scored 37 or more points in all four of their home games this season. OSU is on a 15-7-1 run against the spread in Stillwater. Play on Oklahoma State.


3* (172) LSU Tigers +3.5

Ole Miss is off to a great 7-0 start and they are also 7-0 against the spread! LSU is improving, but they are still a very young team led by a freshmen quarterback who will be facing a Rebels defense that is one of the best in the nation. There are not a lot of good "football" reason to like LSU, but getting the Tigers as a rare home underdog in a night game in Baton Rouge is too good to pass up. LSU lost 27-24 last season at Ole Miss and the Tigers are a perfect 9-0 against the spread as an underdog seeking revenge. Tigers head coach Les Miles will find a way with this young LSU team. Take the points.


3* (175) USC Trojans PICK

Utah is having a great season, but I like the way USC matches up with the Utes in this critical PAC12 match up. Utah's defense has been great. They are tops in the nation in sacks and also do a very good job against the run. However this is a very explosive USC team that they will be facing. The Trojan's quarterback Cody Kessler is rolling and his confidence will be at an all time high after a record setting performance last week against Colorado. The Utes will apply try to apply their pressure, but that will also make then vulnerable to dump passes to running back Buck Allen had his sixth 100 yard game of the season and scored a touchdown for the sixth straight game last week. The Utes offense can struggle at times and unless their defense forces some turnovers to setup some easy scores I don't like their chances. Play on USC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

122 Kentucky +13.5
139 Georgia Tech +3.5
160 TCU -22.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HittingPayDirt:

Mays 2u Penn St +13.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | FLA ATLANTIC at MARSHALL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | AKRON at BALL ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games
64-43 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.8% | 0.0 units )

CFB | N ILLINOIS at E MICHIGAN
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-5 this year. ( 37.5% | -2.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Saturday Edge

Pez:

175 USC PK (1 unit)
193 Texas +10 (1 unit)

TrentMoney:

166 Tennessee +17 (1*)

Sabert

1u Memphis -23
1.5u USC -1

GoSooners

160 TCU -22.5 (1 unit)
175 USC PK (1 unit)
161 Memphis -22.5 (1 unit)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep

Maryland +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FERRINGO

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

3-Unit Play. Take #127 Akron (-1) over Ball State (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

I think that Akron will rebound from last week's tough loss at Ohio with a road win here. Ball State is coming off one of the flukiest wins of the season. They benefitted from five Central Michigan turnovers and still needed a 55-yard field goal in the final seconds to win 32-29. It was a big upset in the MAC, but it was a total fluke. Ball State had lost its five previous games - including a loss to Indiana State - and there's nothing about this team that stands out at all. Akron remembers the 18-point beating they took at the hands of a much better Ball State squad last year. They will want to return the favor. Ball State has been outgained in its last six games - by an average of over 100 yards per game - and I think they get worked over here. Akron should get its starting quarterback back under center after missing last week's game with a concussion. That will make a huge difference in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #129 Central Michigan (-5.5) over Buffalo (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

There is no way that Central Michigan should've lost to Ball State last week. None. They turned the ball over five times and dug a big hole and they still nearly pulled that one out, losing 32-29 on a 55-yard field goal. That game was a killer letdown spot after a big win over Northern Illinois and I don't expect it to happen again. Central Michigan can't afford another league loss or they will be completely out of the picture. But they have a great chance to run the table and win these last four games. This team won at Purdue and won at NIU this year so I think they are capable of winning at Buffalo. The Bulls are coming off a tumultuous bye week. They fired their head coach out of nowhere and the offensive coordinator has taken over. The Bulls weren't that good to begin with and of their three wins just one has come against FBS competition. When a coach gets fired it has a ripple effect through an entire program. The assistants are starting to look at where their next job will be. The players start thinking about transferring. The fans tune out because they know this season is over. It is all downhill. Central Michigan is a much better and more stable program right now. They have won six of seven from the Bulls and have won seven straight against MAC East teams. The Chips should bounce back from last week's loss and I think they will kick Buffalo while the Bulls are down.

2-Unit Play. Take #132 Western Michigan (-10) over Ohio (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

These are two teams going in opposite directions. Western Michigan has won back-to-back road games and now they are coming home. They have covered the spread in six straight games and the two outright losses of that group were a one-point OT loss to Toledo and an 18-point loss in Blacksburg. Ohio has lost two of three games and they are coming off a fluke win over Akron last week. That was an in-state rivalry game and the Bobcats, despite facing a backup quarterback, needed some late game magic to emerge with a win. Ohio got throttled 28-10 at Central Michigan in their last road game and this is just the team's second road tilt since Sept. 14. They have lost their last three road games by an average of over three touchdowns and I think Western Michigan can do the same thing. These two teams have played two commons opponents: Bowling Green and Idaho. Both teams beat Idaho by 12. But Western Michigan did that on the road while Ohio was at home. WMU also beat Bowling Green while Ohio lost by 18 to the Falcons. Western Michigan is hot. They have momentum. They are the better team and they are catching Ohio in a letdown spot. WMU has a solid home field edge and they have been better against similar opponents. There are just a lot of things pointing the way of the home team in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #136 Central Florida (-7) over Temple (5 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

Note: This play is from the KING System. I bet against Temple last week and they got rolled in Houston. I have no problem doing it again. The Owls just aren't very good. But that has been masked by playing one of the weakest schedules in the country. The Owls lost to the only two semi-competent teams they have faced this year, Navy and Houston, and I think they will struggle in a big way with Central Florida's veteran defense. The Knights are just so tough at home and this Temple team hasn't really proven that it can win on the road. Central Florida survived in a 39-36 win at Temple last year. They won't be taking the Owls lightly.

3-Unit Play. Take #153 Rutgers (+20) over Nebraska (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)

I just do not trust Nebraska. I know they are on a 5-0 ATS run. And maybe there is something different about this team versus the last few years. (Not having Taylor Martinez, who threw like a girl, definitely helps.) But Bo Pelini is just one of those guys that always seems to come up short at the times you least expect it. I honestly think that Nebraska could lose this game outright. I think the odds of that happening are greater than the odds of them winning by 30. Rutgers is an unfamiliar opponent to the Huskers. And while I know that goes both ways I think it benefits the underdog in this one. Rutgers was blitzed by Ohio State last week. But the Buckeyes had two weeks to prepare for that game. Rutgers has already outplayed Penn State and Michigan. And this is a proud team that will want to bounce right back after getting embarrassed in Columbus last week. I think they manage that. Nebraska has exactly zero impressive wins this year. I don't know that Rutgers would qualify as one either. But until I see Nebraska take care of their business in a spot like this I refuse to believe they can. Key trend: Nebraska is 16-34 ATS after a win by 20 or more points. I think they flop again.

2-Unit Play. Take #161 Memphis (-23) over SMU (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)

No bet against SMU is a bad bet right now. Memphis is much better than its 3-3 record suggests. But at this point they need to start stringing together some wins so they can get themselves to that bowl threshold. At this point it is easier to point out the gams that SMU has lost by less than 24 points (just one: vs. East Carolina) than it is to give reasons why they might hang around in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #165 Alabama (-17) over Tennessee (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
Note: This play is from the KING System.

Tennessee is definitely making progress and I like Butch Jones. But I don't like Justin Worley. He just misses too many throws and I can't trust an underdog if I don't think their quarterback can play. Worley has been awful against the last two good defenses (Ole Miss and UF) that he has faced. Alabama isn't nearly as good as their ranking suggests. They aren't one of the best five teams in the country so that makes them overrated. But they have dominated the Vols. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Knoxville and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and those last four games have been bloodbaths. The Tide looked awesome last week against A&M. Normally I want to bet against a team off that much of a dominating effort. But the fact that Tennessee looked so helpless against a team that was obviously more talented last week in Oxford makes me worry about how they will hold up against an equivalent (to Ole Miss) team this week. Alabama has won by 20 or more in six of the last seven meetings in this series and Nick Saban isn't going to hesitate to keep the pedal to the metal this week because he knows that for Alabama to stay in the Final Four discussion they need to not just win, but win big. I think the Vols will put up a fight. They have a very underrated, Top 20 defense. But they have given up 34+ points to the best teams they've played (Ole Miss, UGA, Oklahoma). And if Alabama gets into the 40's in this game then I don't think that Worley can keep up with an offense that has been held to 10 or less against three of the four "real" teams that Tennessee's played. In the end I see Alabama pulling away and winning and covering.

2-Unit Play. Take #171 Mississippi (-3.5) over LSU (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

I know that Baton Rouge is where dreams go to die. But this is not the same caliber LSU team as we've seen the past few seasons. They are just too young and too raw and Les Miles is going to go through some growing pains with this group. Those growing pains will be similar to what Ole Miss has had to deal with the past few years while they waited for their highly rated recruits to mature. Well, now the Rebels are mature and right now they are a lot to handle. Ole Miss has one of the best defenses in the country. That is exactly what you need if you plan on going and getting a road upset. They also have a veteran quarterback: another prerequisite for leaving Baton Rouge with a win. The fact is that Mississippi State went into LSU and throttled the Tigers. I think that Ole Miss is every bit the team that Miss State is so the results should be similar here. Don't be fooled by LSU's Top 25 rating. Like most of the rankings in the SEC that is completely undeserved. Their last two wins have come against weak competition and the Tigers are fool's gold this weekend.

6-Unit Play. Take #180 Rice (-14) over North Texas (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)
Note: This is our Game of the Month.

The Mean Green are just a dumpster fire right now. We bet against them with Southern Miss last week and won easily. The fact that they could get rocked at home by Southern Miss - a really BAD Southern Miss team - despite being nearly a double-digit favorite just shows you were the Mean Green are at. And it is not good. It's not a good place for UNT these days. Rice has revenge in this game after a tough 28-16 loss on the road last year. The Owls outgained UNT by 100 yards but somehow lost by 12 thanks to a fumble recovery TD, a punt return TD, and three turnovers. The Mean Green has exactly two wins this year: Nicholls State and SMU. Neither of those teams is a legitimate FBS program so it is safe to say that North Texas hasn't beaten anyone. Rice has had two weeks to prepare and they have won their last three games by 20, 14 and 18 points. This team wants to get bowl eligible and they will be solely focused on this game against an opponent that beat them last year. This is the same Rice team that actually outgained Texas AM and played Notre Dame relatively close for almost a half (it was 14-10 in South Bend with 3 minutes to play in the first half).

3-Unit Play. Take #194 Kansas State (-9.5) over Texas (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)

Kansas State looks like it could be one of those teams that is off everyone's radar but that can come out of nowhere to get itself into the national title picture. Their lone loss this year is against Auburn, and K-State completely outplayed the Tigers in that game. They went on the road and beat Oklahoma last week and right now this team has to be riding a huge wave of emotion. Texas? Not so much. They have proven that they can fall apart at any time. This is only their second true road game of the season. And their first was at Kansas so that almost doesn't count. (It doesn't count.) Charlie Strong has not led this rag tag group of Longhorns into anywhere as difficult as Manhattan and K-State has been wrecking people at home this season. The Wildcats are on a 4-0 ATS run and no bet on a Bill Snyder team is a bad bet. Texas got rolled by Baylor and BYU and they barely beat Iowa State. K-State is better than all three of those teams and should get some revenge in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take #195 Ohio State (-14) over Penn State (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

The Buckeyes are rolling. And Urban Meyer shows no mercy. Ohio State has found a quarterback and right now their offense is clicking on all cylinders. They could've beaten Rutgers by 70 last week if they had wanted to. This team is humming right now and they are going to roll through Happy Valley. Penn State just isn't very good. They had a couple real fortunate late game wins early in the season but they have come back down to earth as the season has worn on. That same Rutgers team that Ohio State just slapped had Penn State beaten until late back in early September. The Nittany Lions lost by 23 at home to shaky Northwestern and by five on the road against super-shaky Michigan. The Nittany Lions just aren't very good and if Ohio State gets up big early there is no way the Lions have the firepower to win a shootout. Ohio State should take care of business here.

2-Unit Play. Take #199 Nevada (-2.5) over Hawaii (11:59 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

I just think that Hawaii should be catching at least a touchdown from just about every team it plays. Norm Chow is a confused old man and this team is a mess right now. The Warriors are thinking about disbanding their football program; that's how bad things are on the island. Nevada has played a brutal schedule so far this year and they have played a lot of really good teams - like Colorado State, Boise State and Arizona - very close. This team won at San Jose State and at BYU and they have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. Nevada has thrashed Hawaii each of the past three seasons and I don't see why this would be different. I think in order for Hawaii to cover they would have to win this game outright. But their only wins have come against Northern Iowa and Wyoming this year. Those close losses to Washington and Oregon State are a long time ago. This team is unraveling and I see another failure in their near future.

1-Unit Play. Take #133 Boston College (-14) over Wake Forest (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

1-Unit Play. Take #139 Georgia Tech (+3.5) over Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

1-Unit Play. Take #158 Arkansas (-26) over UAB (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)

1-Unit Play. Take #176 Utah (Pk) over USC (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

1-Unit Play. Take #192 Oklahoma State (-1) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe


8* Central Michigan -5.5
4* Texas +10
4* Akron -1
3* Michigan +17
3* Georgia Tech +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis


7* Kansas St -10
5* Alabama -18
4* West Virginia +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raphael Esparza



6 Unit Play. #199 Nevada -2 ½ over Hawaii (11:59p.m., Saturday, Oct 25)

(Conference Game of the Month)

If it's not broke don't fix it! Last weekend we had 7-Units on the Nevada Wolf Pack +12 on the road against BYU and we didn't need the plus points. Nevada comes from behind and wins on the road and I see the same outcome Saturday night in Hawaii. Last year Nevada beat Hawaii in Reno 31-9 and the last time the Wolf Pack played on the Island they beat Hawaii 69-24. Hawaii is coming off a road loss to San Diego St last week and the Warriors struggled on offense and I see more Warriors struggle on offense Saturday night. Nevada has been a covering machine on the road covering 3-straight road games and with all the injuries at QB for Hawaii I see another Wolf Pack road victory.



4 Unit Play. #192 Oklahoma St -1 over West Virginia (3:30p.m., Saturday, Oct 25 ESPN)

West Virginia is coming off a big home win over Baylor last week but that was last week. WVU travels to Oklahoma St to face a pissed off Cowboys squad who got crushed last week to TCU and the Cowboys just couldn't get anything going against the Horn Frogs. WVU defense last week at home was outstanding but I see a hangover this Saturday and I see OK-State racking up some TD's at home. Ok-State offense at home can be explosive and again I just don't see back-to-back defensive games from the Mountaineers Saturday afternoon. Should be a close game but the Cowboys take control in the 2nd half and win this game. Oklahoma St is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games and the Cowboys are also 14-4 ATS following an ATS loss.



3 Unit Play. #195 Ohio St -14 over Penn St (8:00p.m., Saturday, Oct 25 ABC)

I'm not going to lie I'm shocked as hell on the offense play of the Ohio St Buckeyes. Last year Ohio St beat Penn St 63-14 and the Buckeyes have scored 50 points or more in their last 4 games. Yes I know the Nittany Lions defense is holding opponents to 13.4ppg in their last 5 games but this defense hasn't seen speed like the Buckeyes. This game could get ugly for the home team and if the Nittany Lions can't slow down OSU offense we will see another 50 plus outcome for the Buckeyes. Penn St is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games and Ohio St is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Penn St.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports


4 Unit Play. #120/#120 Take Eastern Michigan Eagles +20.5 over Northern Illinois Huskies (Saturday 1 pm ESPN 3)

The Huskies are not the same team that they have been the past couple of years. They have struggled to put away some of the weaker MAC teams, and today will be no different. Eastern Michigan is ready for some home cooking as they have played most of their games this season on the road. In fact, they are undefeated at home with a win over Buffalo to boot. NIU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Eastern Michigan hangs around for 60 minutes, giving us the cover.


4 Unit Play. #148/#196 Take UNDER 51.5 in UNLV Rebels @ Utah State Aggies (Saturday 4 pmESPNEWS)

The Aggies are rounding into their 2013 form on defense with a dominating performance last week against Colorado State. But the offense is in turmoil, especially at the quarterback position where they must start their third straight quarterback. Both teams have an edge on defense, and thus we will side with the under in this game. UNLV has gone under the posted total in 4 straight games. Utah State has gone under the posted total in 9 of their last 12 games.


4 Unit Play. #171/#183 Take Mississippi Rebels -3.5 over LSU Tigers (Saturday 7:15 pm ESPN)

LSU is playing better of late, but they are still not up to par with Ole Miss. The Rebels are a dynamic team on both sides of the football and should be able to outscore LSU easily in this game. Tradition can only take LSU so far as the fact remains that Ole Miss is just a much better team in 2014 with a much better quarterback. Granted, Bo Wallace could play down to the Tigers level, but I would not bank on that happening. Mississippi will lose a game at some point this season, but it will not be in Baton Rouge against this weak Tiger team.


4 Unit Play. #195/#189 Take Ohio State Buckeyes -14 over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 8 pmABC)

Penn State has a good quarterback, but their supporting cast is certainly not up to par with Christian Hackenberg. Ohio State has covered the spread in 8 of the last 12 games with Penn State, including going 5-2 ATS in Happy Valley. The Buckeyes have played well since losing to Virginia Tech with 4 blowout victories. The same cannot be said for Penn State as they are coming off two straight losses against bad/so-so teams. Ohio State is 35-15 (1 push) in their last 51 road games. Penn State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Big Ten games.


4 Unit Play. #199/#199 Take Nevada Wolf Pack -2.5 over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 11:59 pm PPV)

By now you know we have a great feel for this Nevada team, having used them for and against numerous times this season without losing a game. Nevada is just a better team than Hawaii, especially without Joey Iosefa. Nevada has won three straight games in this series by an average of 27 points per game. Hawaii will have some moments in this game, but in the end it will be too much Cody Fajardo and company.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

SHOCKER - Texas

BREAKFAST CLUB - Virginia

PERSONAL FAVORITE - Oklahoma st

BEST BET - Tennessee

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens -123 over New York Rangers
(System Record: 6-1, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 6-8

Rest of the Plays
Calgary Flames -101 over Washington Caps
Detroit Red Wings +109 over Philadelphia Flyers
San Jose Sharks -1.5 over Buffalo Sabres

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Lierse + Mechelen OVER 2.5 - Belgium pending
Figueirense + Cruzeiro UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 651-22, won last 2 games and 3 pushes)
Overall Record: 651-540-101

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trev Rogers

North Texas/ Rice OVER 57
Navy -8.5
Penn State +14.5
Louisiana Tech/ Southern Miss OVER 55.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

3 Units - Ohio State -13.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Smith

Penn State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Points Sports

8 unit - LSU +3.5

4*- Oklahoma State -1
3* - Virginia -6.5