MLB
Padres @ Mets
Cashner is 2-1, 2.27 in his last five starts (under 2-0-1 in last three).
Niese is 1-1, 4.67 in his last three starts; five of his last seven stayed under.
Padres won five of last seven games with New York; four of last five series games went over total. San Diego is 8-4 in last 12 games; five of their last six stayed under the total. Mets won three of their last four games.
Nationals @ Marlins
Scherzer is 1-2, 4.81 in his last four starts; seven of his last nine went under the total.
Haren is 1-1, 4.25 in his last five starts; six of his last nine stayed under.
Washington lost five of last eight games with Miami; five of last seven in series went over total. Nationals lost seven of last 11 games; over is 6-2-1 in the last nine . Marlins won seven of their last nine at home.
Braves @ Phillies
Miller is 0-5, 4.04 in his last seven starts; his last four all stayed under.
Harang is 0-8, 7.33 in his last eight starts; five of his last six went over.
Braves/Phillies both dumped starting pitchers last night. Atlanta won four of last five series games; over is 4-2-1 in last seven. Braves lost six of last seven games overalll (under 6-1). Phillies won eight of their last ten games.
Pirates @ Reds
Burnett is 1-1, 7.00 in his last three starts; five of his last six went over.
Holmberg is making first '15 start; he is 7-6, 4.40 in 17 AAA starts this year, and is 2-2, 5.08 in six MLB starts over the last 2+ years.
Cincinnati lost four of last seven games; four of its last five stayed under. Pittsburgh won five of last six games, scoring 18 runs in last two; five of their last six went over the total. Reds won eight of last ten series games; last four went over.
Rockies @ Cardinals
Rusin is 0-2, 6.14 in his last five starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
Martinez is 4-0, 1.29 in his last five starts; his last four stayed under.
Colorado lost five of last seven games with St Louis; three of last four stayed under total. Rockies are 3-5 in last eight games; three of their last four went over total. Cardinals lost Holliday (quad) last night; they lost three of last four games, got blanked last two games- under is 7-0-1 in their last eight.
Cubs @ Brewers
Arrieta is 4-1, 1.72 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under.
Nelson is 5-1, 3.46 in his last six starts.
Cubs lost four of last five games with Milwaukee; six of last eight in seris stayed under total. Chicago lost four of last six games; three of rheir last four went over. Brewers lost six of last eight games; under is 5-0-1 in last six.
American League
Tigers @ Orioles
Simon is 2-3, 9.17 in his last seven starts, five of which went over.
Gonzalez is 3-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; five of his last six went over.
Detroit lost 11 of its last 16 games; five of its last seven games stayed under total. Tigers lost five of last six games with Baltimore; over is 5-2 last seven series games. Orioles won five in a row, allowing seven runs (under is 4-1-1 in their last six games).
White Sox @ Red Sox
Sale is 3-1, 2.41 in his last five starts (under is 3-1-1 in last five).
Wright is 0-3, 7.29 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.
White Sox won their last seven games; they won last three games with Red Sox, which lost 11 of last 13 games overall-- over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Five of last six series games went over the total.
Royals @ Blue Jays
Duffy is 2-0, 1.37 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under.
Escobar is 2-3, 4.50 in his last five starts; four of his last six stayed under.
Royals won eight of last 12 games overall (under 6-2-1 last nine); KC is 6-4 in its last ten games with Toronto. Blue Jays are 3-4 in last seven games; four of their last five games went over.
Bronx @ Rangers
Pineda is 0-2, 6.94 in his last two starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Gallardo is 0-3, 6.52 in his last four starts; six of his last eight stayed under.
Bronx won ten of last 13 games (five of last seven went over); they lost five of last seven games with Texas, allowing 45 runs (under 9-4 in last 13). Rangers lost three of last four games, outscored 42-19 (over 7-4 in last eleven).
Angels @ Astros
Shoemaker is 1-1, 2.08 in his last three starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four.
Kazmir tossed seven shutout innings in his Houston debut; he is 2-0, 0.68 in his last four starts-- five of his last six stayed under.
Halos lost five of last six games overall; nine of their last eleven away games went over total. Astros won seven of last nine games; four of their last seven stayed under total. Angels split last six games with Houston; seven of last 11 series games stayed under. Trout missed the last two nights (wrist).
Mariners @ Twins
Happ is 0-0, 7.11 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over.
Hughes is 5-0, 2.44 in his last seven starts (over 4-2-1).
Seattle lost five of last six game with Minnesota; five of last seven in series stayed under total. Mariners lost last three games, allowing 20 runs; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Twins lost last four games,, allowing 33 runs; their last five games all went over the total.
Indians @ A's
Carrasco is 0-2, 6.00 in his last four starts; his last six went over.
Bassitt is 0-3, 2.74 in his four starts (under 3-1); Oakland scored eight runs in the four games. .
Indians lost last six games, outscored 37-10; seven of their last ten games went over. Tribe lost five of last six games with Oakland; five of last six in series went over total. Oakland lost five of last six games (three of last four stayed under).
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Wsh-Mia-- Scherzer 11-9; Haren 10-10
SD-NY-- Cashner 7-12; Niese 7-12
Atl-Phil-- Miller 9-11; Harang 5-12
Pitt-Cin-- Burnett 12-8; Holmberg 0-0
Colo-StL-- Rusin 2-7; Martinez 15-3
Chi-Mil-- Arrieta 12-8; Nelson 9-11
KC-Tor-- Duffy 9-5; Estrada 7-8
Det-Balt-- Simon 11-8; Gonzalez 11-7
Chi-Bos-- Sale 12-7; Wright 1-5
NY-Tex-- Pineda 11-8; Gallardo 10-11
LA-Hst-- Shoemaker 9-8; Kazmir 9-10 (1-0 Hst)
Sea-Minn-- Happ 7-12; Hughes 11-9
Clev-A's-- Carrasco 11-9; Bassitt 1-3
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Wsh-Mia-- Scherzer 3-20; Haren 2-20
SD-NY-- Cashner 4-20; Niese 7-19
Atl-Phil-- Miller 3-20; Harang 6-17
Pitt-Cin-- Burnett 4-20; Holmberg 0-0
Colo-StL-- Rusin 3-9; Martinez 2-18
Chi-Mil-- Arrieta 4-20; Nelson 7-20
KC-Tor-- Duffy 2-14; Estrada 2-15
Det-Balt-- Simon 3-19; Gonzalez 3-18
Chi-Bos-- Sale 6-19; Wright 2-6
NY-Tex-- Pineda 7-19; Gallardo 7-21
LA-Hst-- Shoemaker 4-17; Kazmir 3-19
Sea-Minn-- Happ 7-19; Hughes 5-20
Clev-A's-- Carrasco 10-20; Bassitt 0-4
StatFox Super Situations
WNBA | PHOENIX at TULSA
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after one or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game
226-143 since 1997. ( 61.2% | 68.7 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 0.5 units )
WNBA | PHOENIX at TULSA
Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games after 15 or more games
30-13 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.8% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | PHOENIX at TULSA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 revenging a blowout loss versus opponent by 30 points or more
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | CHI WHITE SOX at BOSTON
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CHI WHITE SOX) poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start, playing on Thursday
61-46 since 1997. ( 57.0% | 36.7 units )
2-5 this year. ( 28.6% | -2.5 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | SEATTLE at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 31-20 (+17.6 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.6)
Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Indians and Pirates on Wednesday and likes the Padres and Nationals on Thursday.
The deficit is 59 sirignanos.
Hondo
Hondo serves up double-falter
Hondo absorbed a pair of beatings Wednesday afternoon, getting pummeled with the Royals and Rockies to increase the deficit to 1,955 molitors.
Thursday: Mr. Aitch will put his DDDPs (dwindling disposable dead presidents) on Estrada, the newest member of his stable — 10 units on the Jays.
EZWINNERS
2* Royals +130
Frank Patron
10,000 Unit MLB Move
Toronto Blue Jays -140 over Kansas City
Listed Pitchers
XpertPicks
Thursday Baseball
Play St. Louis -225 over Colorado---Top Play
Chris Rusin has lost 15 of the last 21 games when pitching as an
underdog of +100 or higher and he has lost 11 of the last 15 games when
the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Chris Rusin has lost 15 of
the last 19 night games and he has lost 4 consecutive games when
pitching on a Thursday.
Play Minnesota -135 over Seattle---Top Play
JA Happ has lost 15 of the last 20 games when pitching on a Thursday and
he has lost 20 of the last 30 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the
season. JA Happ has lost 48 of the last 76 games when pitching as an
underdog of +100 to +150 and he has lost 45 of the last 76 road games.
================================================== ======
BONUS MLB BASEBALL PLAYS
Play Baltimore -150 over Detroit (MLB Bonus Play)
Play Washington -150 over Miami (MLB Bonus Play)
PAUL LEINER
100* MLB – Twins -140
100* MLB – Indians -135
Platinum Play Win - 100 Dime Plays Report
Pirates -145
Under 7.5 Cardinals
Under 7 Brewers
Bluejays -140
Astros -155
Mariners +140
bookieshunter MLB
White Sox @ Red Sox (2*) Over 8
Dave Essler's 3* AL GOW
ANGELS/ASTROS OVER 8 (7.5s now available)
Mike Davis
8-Unit MLB GOY Thursday
Minnesota Twins
Raphael Esparza/VSI
MLB THURSDAY 6 UNIT PLAY
Minnesota Twins
Alan Harris
3* wash/ Miami Over 6.5
SB Professor Original MLB
Follow:
Miami +176
Fade:
Washington -186
Rockdeman Sports
Top Underdog of the Day - - Kansas City Royals
SIMON – SOCCER
UEFA – EUROPA LEAGUE (WEST HAM UTD -200) FC ASTRA GIURGIU @ WEST HAM UTD (245pm)
UEFA – EUROPA LEAGUE (IF ELFSBORG -124) ODDS BK @ IF ELFSBORG (12pm)
UEFA – EUROPA LEAGUE (FC SLOVAN LIBEREC -150) HAPOEL IRONI KIRYAT SHM @ FC SLOVAN LIBEREC (12pm)
UEFA – EUROPA LEAGUE ( AS SAINT ETIENNE +107) AS SAINT ETIENNE @ ASA 2013 TARGU MURES (2pm)
UEFA – EUROPA LEAGUE ( LEGIA WARSZAWA -160) LEGIA WARSZAWA @ KS KUKESI (2pm)
UEFA – EUROPA LEAGUE (OVER 3 -130) BORUSSIA DORTMUND @ WOLFSBERGER AC (3PM)
Dave Essler
PLAY: Angels/Astros OVER
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
The obvious reaction here would be to assume that Scott Kazmir and "over" don't go in the same sentence. However, we've got two of the most potent offenses in baseball (if Trout plays, even better!) in one of the smaller parks in the league with what I consider a favorable umpire. Clint Fagan (behind the plate) has already done three Astros games this year, all of which have gone over the total. Back to Kazmir for a minute, because that's the only wild card, IMO. No denying his capability - but, when I look at the smaller parks he's pitched in, it's not nearly a pretty as what happens in a huge park like Oakland. In Houston he's allowed three home runs in fifteen innings with a 1.56 WHIP.. He is a flyball pitcher - with Cli nt Fagan as an umpire, Kazmir is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA (hence I came very close to taking the Angels as well, and still might). But, why I am not ready to back Los Angeles is that I don't trust their pen, which under some conditions might be fine, but not with Shoemaker. He has not pitched through the 7th inning since the end of May - and has allowed 17 jacks in only 97 innings pitched. I vividly remember trying to back him after a solid outing when he pitched at Toronto earlier this season - and he was simply crushed. He doesn't change speeds well. The Astros have seen enough of him (not much, but enough for me) and Altuve is 4-7, which we always love when the leadoff guys get on. Even Carter, Mr. Strikeout, is 3-6 with two bombs. I am not sure who catches for Houston, but even Castro, who cannot hit, is 2-4 off of him. That's a least a confidence thing. Back to the Angels' pen, which has a 4.09 ERA over the last week. Can't get behind that on the road. In the last week, the Angels are hitting .270 and averaging over 5 runs per game. In the last week the Astros are hitting .285 and averaging over 5 runs per game. The Angels are a better "over" team on the road. Houston is a better "over" team against right handed pitching. This is a huge series, obviously, and the Angels just cannot afford to get swept (another reason I MAY take them) so they should come out swinging, and of course Houston always does. And, as I have often stated, very often games start the way the previous one finished, and the Astros scored in the last four innings the hit (after being shutout for four innings) and the Angels battled and got a couple in the ninth. There are far too many ways these teams score - and very few that tells me they don't. I'll add more thoughts, as always, later in the day - same as every day and every sport.
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