Originally Posted by Luke
Ha, yeah. Funny to think that Marquardt, Cote and Leites were once the best the division had to offer as far as guys who weren't Anderson Silva. Now we have Weidman, Rockhold, Machida, Jacare, Romero, etc.
I heart cock
I have to admit, Leites had me believing he might put a run together towards another title shot. I knew Bisping would be a rough matchup though with that constant movement, volume striking, and TDD(still a very competitive fight).
Nate is done and Cote will follow him before the end of 2016 I think.
Was just thinking: if you're going to take Oliveira, you may as well take him by sub. Its +325 vs +200. Oliveira only has one win that's not by sub in the last 5 years
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
I don't want to take anything away from Leites. He's been doing very well and has had a very successful late career resurgence. No idea where he goes from here but I suppose there's no reason to think he can't continue to win fights for at least a handful of years to come.
As for Nate, yeah, I think he's done. It's unfortunate. When I saw him destroy Woodley for the SF belt I was like, "Nate the Great is fucking BACK!" And now he's gone like 1-5 since then.
I heart cock
That's not a bad idea, especially against someone like Holloway who is primarily a striker.
I heart cock
Yeah, that's by far the most likely way he wins. I'm still extremely impressed by the ground wizardry against Hioki. Hioki's UFC career def. didn't pan out well but submitting him is a huge feather to have in your cap.
Oliveira will do some funky things to get it to the ground too. I wouldn't be surprised if he started things off with a flying guard pull or a scissor sweep.
I won't bet big on Burkman/Cote at all. At most to win $100. Not the type of fight I will bet big on. Luke and I learned our lessons betting on...wait or it..
BUMS. (SORRY X)
I think Oliveira is the play after watching fights. His wrestling has came a long way. My biggest concern is how he tends to fold/quit when things get kind of rough. I really don't think he likes getting hit.
Best play on this fight IMO: Fight does not go distance. It's -300 but...fuck it.
Oliveira def. has had a tendency to wilt in the past. He did fight on against Lentz in the rematch despite having trouble seeing and that was a grueling fight on the other hand.
After the fight with Stungun I'd be very hesitant to play Burkman on anything. Dude had a clear advantage striking in that fight, and hurt Stungun every single round in standing exchanges, but insisted on trying to clinch with a guy who's entire game revolves around Judo trips an top control. And despite that, Josh still almost won that fight in a couple spots. Some people just can't be saved from themselves.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
Tough card. I'd stay away from the Holloway fight unless you want to pick the favourite. I personally think Holloway handles Oliveira with ease.
"Do I hate my opponents? How could I hate someone who has the same dreams as me?"
Fight card starts an hour early this Saturday
Figh pass prelims start at 6pm eastern
Foxs Sports 1 prelims start at 7pm eastern
Main card on Fox Sports 1 starts a 9pm eastern
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
It's Sunday.
Jesus FUCK!! I didn't even realize that. Just ruined my plans for Saturday
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.
Holloway Vs. Oliveira
Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.
Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:
I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.
A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...
I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.
I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)
Magny Vs. Silva
It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.
Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.
My bets for this event so far are only:
Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220
Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.
Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.
I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.
I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.
On top of these I am looking into:
Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3
Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.
Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.
A bit rough on Magny here, dude is not even close to a bum but it's clear he needs A TON of work on his back. Silva still only has a real chance to win in Round 1, it's a great chance but it's still only one round. If Magny survives his length, angles and straight punches will make Silva wilt and Magny will pour it on late.
Again Silva has a GREAT chance to win early but that's it. His R1 prop is +250 but his ML is -170, doesn't make sense to me honestly. It's not a foregone conclusion but it's about as certain as anything can be in MMA it's Silva R1 or bust.
Absolutely true BUT despite losing the second round to Lentz it was due to grappling so at least Oliveira got to work his game a bit. That would be a bit different if he was on the feet getting tagged for a full round instead. I think if he has to stay on the feet he will get much more discouraged fighting Holloway rather than losing a grappling round with Lentz. I could just be making shit up though!
Nice breakdown, and welcome to the forum.Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.
Holloway Vs. Oliveira
Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.
Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:
I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.
A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...
I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.
I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)
Magny Vs. Silva
It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.
Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.
My bets for this event so far are only:
Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220
Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.
Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.
I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.
I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.
On top of these I am looking into:
Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3
Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.
Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.
I agree with the Oliveira sub prop. Its the only path to victory for him, imo. I really think the best bet in the fight is fight doesn't go the distance at -300. Oliveira is going to get KO'd/TKO'd from the neverending strikes, or get caught in a sub. The only reason I wouldn't pound Holloway here is you don't know if he's going to make a mistake. He's young...young fighters make mistakes. He could win 2 rounds and start to get cocky and get caught. I don't want to lay -240 and have to hold my breath for several rounds as Oliveira keeps trying to pull off a sub
Calling Magny a bum...dont mind me, I call a lot of people bums. If you noticed, I call Silva one also.
Silva would have lost to Story, imo. Silva wilts to pressure and that's all Story does. If Silva is smart( no one said he is), he goes straight for the takedown in this fight and grapples Magny until he submits him....which I think he does in this fight.
I believe you mean the over is juiced in this fight...which is weird. I don't know what to think about that to be honest.
I thought Holloway/Oliveira being only 1.5 was odd, also. Expected it to be around 2.5
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Hell of a write up, Boone. I more or less agree with all of what you said. Looks like you play a lot of props. I'd be curious to hear about how that works out for you. I've always had bad luck with with those.
I heart cock
Oh, don't mind him. Luke thinks that anyone outside of the top 5 is a bum.
I heart cock
I try to play more straight money line bets than anything else since I found that to be the most effective way to make money in the long run but sometimes I'm in a position where I don't like anything other than some prop bets.
I do like the value of all of the Overs that I selected and thought it would be fun to do a round robin like I did for the last event with great success.
Get used to my long winded breakdowns, I tend to get a little carried away at times.
Last event I played the same round robin on these 4 lines:
Kakai/Saenz O 2.5
Camozzi/Watson O 2.5
Holtzman/Christodoulou O 1.5
Rosholt/Johnson O 1.5
Can't recall the exact lines and too lazy to look it up but I risked 10u and returned just over 25u. Fights that I contemplated for this round robin were the overs on McMann/Nunes (2.5) and Brunson/Alvey (2.5) but ultimately I thought they were risky and might finish early so I avoided those lines and sure enough those fights wound up being finished!
Still no props on my current books (BM and SI) so I will wait and post again once I take a few of those props and finalize my bets.
Good luck with everything. Like I said, in my experience, props have always backfired. I'll have a guy who hasn't finished a fight in 5 years and I'll bet him to win by decision and then he'll get a KO. Shit like that. It's happened so many times I've just kind of been scared away.
I heart cock
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
