2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Meh you're still just playing the odds. Even if a guy only has a 10% chance to win by KO that chance is still there. Value is value and if you only make bets that you believe have value and you are a good capper then you will win in the long run. Like Shields will never get a KO but there is still the chance and if you bet him by decision and he winds up getting a KO that could just be the 1/10 (example) outcome of that fight. Just because one thing happens doesn't necessarily mean that your bet was wrong.
You probably know this but it's nice to remember that "shit happens" and you never truly know. Getting burned on shit like that is pretty brutal though.
There are infinite ways a fight can play out and we only ever get to see one of them and we just have to make our best guess as to how those infinite possibilities translate into the final outcome of the fight. At least that's what I say to myself to stop me from pulling my hair out.
People always talk about "hometown advantage' when it comes to judges and use this to influence their bets. Here is some data I pulled:
From 2014 up until the last event I checked out all of the split decisions in the UFC only. I bring this up because there are a lot of Canadians fighting in Canada this weekend. I personally don't take this into account but some so.
DISCLAIMER: A split decision loser on home turf does not necessarily mean that they got robbed, they could have only won on one judge because of favouritism that didn't quite work out. These stats don't show the full picture because a split decision doesn't mean the loser was robbed every single time, often they are the right decision.
of the 44 fights where there was a clear hometown fighter, in 21 of those fights the winner was the hometown guy. In the other 23 fights the foreigner ended up winning the split decisions.
Obviously there were also unanimous decisions that were terrible decisions but it was just easier to get split decision data from MMADecisions.com and I'm too lazy to do any more.
Here is the raw data I used
I guess, for me, I just have a hard time determining the odds of someone getting a KO or not getting a KO or the fight going to a decision or the fight going over 1.5 rounds and what have you.
Either that or supernatural forces are conspiring against me, which is an explanation I sometimes tend to lean toward.
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I did the same. Nearly started a twitter ad campaign for "tonight's UFC" until I realised it wasn't even today :P
I think this is a card for betting the overs. I'm not confident enough to really tip anything for this event but these are my personal bets. Was also tempted by Sam Stout cos I think Perez is a poor fighter... but Stout's very limited too.
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Bet MMA (MMA Betting Tips) | MMA Tycoon Game (My real name's Mike)
I picked Holloway by late TKO, but I think Oliveira has a very good chance to get the sub; he's the most crafty submission guy in the UFC imo, and can catch anyone. His striking has gotten better, and his wrestling has also improved immensely. Should be a great fight.
Glad to see we have someone here who gives Oliveira at least SOME chance to win this one. Up until this point I've been alone. But yeah, I agree with everything you say. Perhaps Holloway should be favored, but Oliveira is live here.
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The biggest toss-up fights, IMO, are Holloway/Oliveira, and Magny/Silva
Either Max keeps it standing and KOs Do Bronx, or Do Bronx gets the TD and subs Max, I don't see it any other way.
With Silve/Magny, it all depends if Magny survives the first-round onslaught. If he does, He takes the decision from a gassed Erick Silva.
Definitely. I think -200 for Oliveira is reasonable though. The guy looked sharp in there against Lentz; his knees and clinch work looked excellent. The thing is that Holloway won't be stationary or just moving forward on one axis- he'll be moving in and out, laterally, switching stances, etc., and I think that will make it difficult for Oliveira's straight up MT attack to be effective. He'll have to get it to the ground somehow or consistently get a clinch.
I guess tonight we find out if Holloway is really that much improved or if he's just been on a good run. While he has been looking great lately, he also has only a few notable wins. He beat Miller and Swanson, which are good wins. But every other "name" has has fought he has lost to -- Poirier, Bermudez, McGregor . . . and like I said earlier, I really believe he lost to Garcia.
Oliveira on the other hand is also on a run and in his last three fights he beat Lentz, Stephens and Hioki.
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