10-8-15

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THE SPORTS GEEK
(Kyle) – Penguins/Stars – OVER 5.5

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James Patrick Sports
Washington vs. USC 9:00 pm est. ESPN
The Huskies pulled off a rare coaching upgrade despite losing theirs to a bigger program, hiring Chris Petersen from Boise State. And Petersen has a solid core of talent to work as Freshman quarterback Jake Browning has walked on campus and thrown for (996) yards and five touchdowns in four games as Washington looks toward the future. Head Trojan Steve Sarkisian had talent to work with immediately after departing Seattle after the 2013 season, and the bulk of the offense returned. Senior Trojans quarterback, Cody Kessler, has been spectacular through four games by completing (73) percent of his passes for (1,297) yards, (15) touchdowns and just one interception. Trojan Army wins going away in a high scoring affair.
(3*) Play. #305. Take Washington – USC Over the Total

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Alex Smart Sports - Thursday Night CFB Totals Crusher
NCAA-F | Oct 08 8:00 pm
Houston vs SMU
We have two offenses that are currently known for their prolific abilities to points on the board in bunches. But with that said, one of these teams ( Houston) also has an above average defense, that held Tulsa to just 24 points on the road last time out, and Texas State to just 14 points in their last home game, and also played tough in Louisville pulling off the 34-31 upset thanks to a bend but dont break defense . Im betting because of the short week, both sides may not be 100% and not be as explosive out of the gate as usual, and for the Cougars defense, to limit visiting SMUs scoring opportunities. I know since Chad Morris arrived on the Hilltop after five seasons as an offensive coordinator at Clemson and 16 years as a high school coach in Texas , the Ponies looked viable again.Dont get me wrong I like SMU new direction, but it wont be easy moving the ball here tonight, and wont be surprised if Morris backs off and trys to get the ground game to control the clock. Morris is a good coach and knows his teams limitations, and Im betting will play this game much more conservatively than many might expect. Houston's last 29 games dating back 3 seasons has seen an average of 54.9 ppg go on the board. In home games with a total that is greater than or equal to 63 an average of 68.3 ppg went on the board, spanning 27 games. Houston is 8-1 UNDER L/9 times when the total is greater than or equal to 63 with an average of 56.2 ppg getting registered. Once again from a historical trends perspective, Houston 12-1 UNDER after gaining 300 or more rushing yards which happened against Tulsa last Saturday with both teams combining for an average 53.1 ppg going on the score board.
Play under the set Total 1 unit reg selection

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King Creole:
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
8:25pm ET - 5:25pm PT / #302
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The pointspread and the OU line in this game were posted pretty late in the week. It was not until late on Tuesday night that the oddsmakers made Indy a short road favorite, and posted an OU line of 45 points. The reason for that is the questionable status of Colt QB Andre Luck. It looks like he WILL play on Thursday, but he will not be 100% healthy. He certainly has not looked good in the month of September. BOTH of these quarterbacks are ranked #22 or worse in the NFL QBR ratings for the season. Ryan Mallet of Houston is ranked #22. What is surprising is that Andrew Luck is ranked #31. That’s right, he’s currently the second WORST quarterback in the league in QBR ranking (right behind Alex Smith of the Chiefs). With both QB’s struggling, there has STILL been NO Over / Under line adjustment. The average OU line in this Houston / Indy series has been 45.9 over the last five years. And yet, Thursday’s line is still at 45 points. Speaking of SERIES history, these two teams have gone 2-7 O/U in the last nine meetings… with an average of 42.2 combined points per game. With both offenses struggling, we’ll tale a bite with the UNDER on Thursday.
AFC South Division games have been ‘trending UNDER’ as of late anyway. We went UNDER in last week’s Colts / Jags game… and we’ll do it again.
2-15 O/U since 2011: All AFC SOUTH division games with an OU Line of > 43 points (Colts @ Texans) in GAME FIVE or greater.
The Colts are one of only TWO NFL teams that have yet to cash an ATS win this season (Indy: 0-4 ATS and Baltimore 0-3-1 ATS)…
GAME FIVE road teams who are 0-4 ATS on the season (Colts) have gone 1-7 O/U since 2009 when the OU line is 47 < points.
In last week’s home win, the Colts were a favorite of -4 points. And they scored only 16 points against the Jaguars…
0-7 O/U last three years: All NFL teams off a SU home win as a favorite of < 10 points (Colts) in which they scored only 16 or LESS points.
This will be Indianapolis’ third STRAIGHT division game in a row…
2-12 O/U since 2001: All favorites of 9 < pts… off a SU win… in their third STRAIGHT division game (Colts)… when the OU Line is 39 > points.
Houston got smacked around pretty good last week against the 4-0 Atlanta Falcons. They ended up losing by 27 points…
1-8-1 O/U last four years: All DIVISION teams off a SU non-division road loss of 27 or more points (Houston)… when the OU line is 51 < points.
Final score of that road loss last week was Atlanta 48 - Houston 21. We were on the OBER in that game, and it cashed one minute into the fourth quarter. Based on this last database query, we’re switching gears this week and going UNDER…
0-5 O/U last two seasons: All NFL teams who scored 21 > pts last week and ALLOWED 45 > points (Texans)… when the OU line is < 51 points.

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Tom Stryker's 13-2 ATS NFL Division Statement Game
Tom rates his online plays 1* to 5* with a 5* being the strongest.




1* #302 HOUSTON (+) over Indianapolis at 8:25 PM EST


At 1-3 SU, this is a critical game for Houston. The Texans can't afford to fall to 1-4 SU and definitely don't want to lose to the Colts again. Indianapolis owns an impressive 22-4 SU record in this series (13-11-2 ATS) and has quietly won five straight.




Off last week's embarrassing 48-21 beatdown in Atlanta, Houston will be hungry too. The Texas have played well at home in a revenge mode and off a straight up loss posting a profitable 15-6-1 ATS record. In this role lined up against an opponent that played in the comforts of home less, Houston improves to a sound 14-3-1 ATS. Based on their current record, there is also a reliable 45-23-4 ATS early season pro system that backs the Texans as well. (Because this technical situation applies to a few other teams this weekend, the parameters that make this system pop will remain for my eyes only.)




The Horseshoes will most likely welcome back quarterback Andrew Luck to the lineup on Thursday night. Luck is nursing an injured shoulder but, since this is a division game, there's a pretty good chance he'll be the starter. It is noted that the Colts are an impressive 15-0 SU and 11-2-2 ATS in their last 15 AFC South battles. However, on foreign soil priced as an underdog or a favorite of -2 or less and matched up against a foe that checks in off an ATS loss, Indy owns a soft 34-50-1 ATS record. Also, since 1985, game five teams that own a 2-2 SU record are a dismal 16-30 ATS provided they enter off back-to-back straight up wins and their opponent carries a won/loss percentage less than .500. If this is a division game, this situation crashes to a woeful 2-13 ATS




The Colts have owned the division lately. But, with Pro Bowl running back Arian Foster back, the Texans have enough weapons on offense to compete with the banged up Horseshoes on Thursday night. Take Houston. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

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Nelly's Thursday NCAA Total Delivery - Oct. 8
10/08/15 Nelly's 1* #305/306 'OVER' Washington at USC 9:00 PM ET
Steve Sarkisian did not get a chance to take on his former team last year and this year's meeting comes with both teams off last weekend. USC already has suffered a loss to cripple its national playoff hopes and more prominent games with Notre Dame and Utah are the next two games on the schedule. Washington is 2-2 on the season and Chris Petersen delivered a bowl bid in his first season in Seattle it will be an uphill battle to get the Huskies there this season staring at a brutal October schedule. Washington only lost by six but was not overly competitive statistically against California at home to open the Pac-12 season in its last game. The USC defense has allowed 400 yards in three of four games but they will be tough to keep up with as Sarkisian hopes his offense will be even more fast-paced as they have fallen short of the 80 plays per game goal the team has. Part of that shortage has been many big plays leading to quick scores but the defense has often not gotten off the field, 91st in the nation in yards per game allowed. Freshman quarterback Jake Browning has had some turnovers but he has mostly been an accurate passer and the Washington offense should have some opportunities against a USC secondary that has struggled this season for the most part. In the last game California had 481 yards and 28 first downs against Washington despite only putting up 30 points and the Trojans look capable of cashing in more points in their opportunities. USC's defense has created turnovers with 10 already in four games so a short field score or two seems very possible in this game with the young Washington quarterback facing his biggest game so far. In nine home games in the Sarkisian era at the Coliseum USC has scored at least 31 points in every single home game, averaging over 45 points per game. There is reason to be skeptical of Washington's strong defensive numbers built on the wins vs. Sacramento State and Utah State while the USC defense has likely deserved to allow even more points than they have after misleading defensive scoring numbers in the all three wins.
Nelly's rates our Playbook Picks 1-10 stars. It is a long season so please have a money management plan and be conservative and conscientious with your wagers. Thanks for playing with Nelly's Sportsline and best of luck.

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WISEGUY INSIDER

100 Unit WISEGUY: NCAAF Washington +17
100 Unit WISEGUY: NFL Houston Texans -4

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(NSA "THE LEGEND")
25* NFL Colts +4.5
20* CFB SMU over 71.5
20* CFB USC under 56.5
10* NFL Colts under 41.5
10* CFB SMU +26
5* MLB Royals -135

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Jim Feist

High End MLB Systems Release

Take: (904) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Reason: Houston had to play Tuesday, using its ace, and now flies to rested Kansas City. Despite knocking off the overrated Yankees Houston is still not a good road team, and the Astros are 43-96 in their last 139 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City won the AL last season and is back, with speed on the base paths and a strong pen. The Royals are 36-16 vs. the American League West. Kansas City has Yordano Ventura on the hill, rested and the team is 35-17 in Ventura's last 52 starts. Play Kansas City!

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PAUL LEINER

100* Washington +16.5
100* Over 7.5 – Rangers/Blue Jays
100* Royals -135

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ATS Lockclub

Totals for year
NCAA -69.3 units
NFL +10.9 units


3 Houston(NCAA) -25.5

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NORTHCOAST LATE PHONE SELECTIONS

Top Opinions: Thursday College Marquee: USC (-16.5) over Washington

Thursday NFL Marquee: UNDER 41 Indianapolis/Houston

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Vegas Winning Crew

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays over 7.5

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WAYNE ROOT
NFL

Millionaires---Houston

Andrew Luck is a very special quarterback. In his career, he's thrown 14 touchdowns and three interceptions while going 5-1 against the Houston Texans. But that was before a shoulder injury sidelined him last week. For this year, the Colts have defeated the Titans and Jaguars by a total of five points while losing to Buffalo outright in week 1. Luck's five TDs have yet to overcome his seven picks in addition to being sacked five times in three starts. His magic is certainly in question. The offensive pieces that surround him are mediocre at best. The Texans will look for the run to counter any Colts offensive point total. Adrian Foster looks to be on track after getting back on the field last week. It's definitely up to the Texan defense to win this game by stopping the Colts and Luck. They failed to show up on the road last week against Atlanta and played horribly in their look ahead to this game. Even at 1-3, this is the Texans first divisional game and are full of hope and excitement as this is when their season begins. Ryan Mallett will be on a short leash and really needs to get back on track. Having Foster in the backfield can only help. Look for Mallett to go to DeAndre Hopkins about 10 times and added with a great defensive effort the Texans lock up a win tonight.
TAKE HOUSTON.

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Simon the "soccer guy"
european championship (under 2.5 +108) germany @ rep of ireland (245pm)

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David mires system
mlb- kansas city -140 houston (8pm)
nfl- indianapolis/houston under 44.5 (830pm)

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Brad Wilton

40 DIME Pac 12 Game of the Month

Washington

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Shinoba Sports

Rangers/Blue Jays over 7.5

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PAUL LEINER

2000* colts + 4.5

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Vernon Croy
MLB
7* Toronto RL -1.5