1-24-16

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NFAC
750- Under 45.5 – ne/den

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ATS Lock

6* New England

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Mike Handzelek’s
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (NFL)
3:05 PM EST
Denver Broncos Premium Pick
Play Title: 9 Star Public Mass Deception Play (Gronk Or Bronc)
Play Selected: Point Spread: 3.5/-115
Analysis: Is this the last go-round between arguably the greatest rivalries between QB’s (Brady, 38 & Manning, 39) in NFL history? That answer may take place after the result of this game. One thing for sure is that the quick-judging, collective public have already written off Manning off for this one. Yes, Belichick will try to prep his defense & over-load areas to defend passes to the flats and over the middle since Manning has shown a lack of power in making finesse throws consistently downfield. However, this will be a very strong classic chess match of wits. He will compensate DC Matt Patricia’s designed pressure by moving his receivers out & customizing his offense to exploit NE defensive weaknesses left by the injured & now on IR in 8th-year veteran MLB Jerod Mayo. Defensive team captain Mayo suffered a shoulder injury in the 3rd quarter of last week’s game versus KC. Besides WLB Dont’a Hightower & SLB Jamie Collins leaving with injuries last week, another SLB Darius Fleming will be playing with 22 stitches in his right leg after heroically pulling a woman from a window of a wrecked car on Route 1 near Gillette Stadium last week. Manning should be able to figure out where the mismatches are in this secondary & exploit them enough to put his team in position for the outright “W”. Last week’s 21-for-37 stats through the air by Manning is a bit misleading since 7 of those passes were dropped. He’ll also give RB C.J. Anderson his touches who has put 3 solid games together by running for a collective 240 yards & 3 TD’s. It was Anderson who broke away from scrimmage for 48 yards & a TD when the Broncos’ were (+2 1/2) in their 30-24 OT win in Week 12. On the flip side of the coin, QB Tom Brady may have his 3 receivers back (TE Rob Gronkowski & WR’s Julian Edelman & Danny Amendola), but how effective each will be remains to be seen. New England’s one-dimensional offense (8 rushes versus KC from their 30th-ranked rushing “O”) still put up 27 @ home, but they weren’t facing a defense that recorded 1 sack with lead sacker DE-LB Justin Houston only playing 8 snaps. Now, they face the #1 NFL defense in sacks with their 2nd best sack man, 11th-year vet WLB DeMarcus Ware (134 1/2 carrer sacks), who didn’t play in the Broncos’ win in Week 12. Whether Denver CB Chris Harris is a go or not, Brady will be facing a very similar pressure “D” he faced when he lost outright to the Giants in 2 Super Bowls. I also feel LCB Aqib Talib knows Brady’s tendencies very well & they should contain Edelman’s quick routes more often than not. For those into numbers, here are some one to dive into. The #1 seeds SU record in the championship round since 2009 is 7-1. The #2 seeds SU record in this round since 2009 is only 2-7. In the conference championship, the home teams are 31-19 SU over the last 25 years. Since 2007, only 3 of 16 games in this round have been decided by 10 or more points. Since 1979, the team with a defense giving up less points during the regular season has gone 45-25-1 ATS in this round. Since 1990, the SU championship round winner is 41-8-1 ATS. Brady has a 6-8 SU overall record lifetime versus Denver (the only team he’s under .500 against lifetime) & is just 2-6 SU @ Mile High. New England has NOT won a road playoff game (not counting neutral field games) since 2006 & carry a dismal 3-7 SU record their last 10 playoff road games. The Broncos are 5-1 SU their last 6 @ home versus the Patriots. Manning is 3-1 SU in AFC Championships, 8-1 SU starting this season & is a solid 12-6-1 ATS in December or later games since coming to Denver. NE averages 61.25 penalty yards on the road while the Orange & Blue average just 47.77 yards penalized @ home. For those looking @ referee tendencies, Referee Ed Hochuli has seen Denver go 6-0 SU in games where his crew was assigned. Since 2010, the Patriots are a very pedestrian 4-4 SU with Hochuli officiating crews. My bottom line says DC Wade Phillips should be able to effectively bring the heat in on Brady (with Demarcus Ware there this time). Remember, they did this effectively with just SLB Von Miller (11 sacks this year) the first time. The Orange Crush have a habit of playing close games. In their 13 out of 17 games decided by 7 or less this year, they’ve won 10. This battle-tested team has shown DEFENSE keeps you IN IT to WIN IT. This is a rubber match Game 5 in playoff games between Manning & Brady with the home team winning each time. Their 2-2 SU record versus each other is indicative of how close this rivalry really is. In his 18 years in the NFL, Manning knows he DOESN’T have to force the situation & try to win this on his own. With a good supporting cast, John Elway adapted to this @ the end of his career. I feel this is another game where added line value MATTERS! Getting over 3 is getting over a BIG key number ATS but getting over 4 cannot be ignored here for the price. In the 3 Patriots’ playoff games @ Rocky Mountain High, New England is a perfect 0-3 SU! Denver is 7-2 SU in AFC title games, the highest winning percentage (.778) leaguewide among playoff teams who’ve played 5 or more games. Let’s go to Sports Authority Field @ Mile High to take the Denver Broncos (but buy to + 4 1/2 @ -145) as my 9 Star Public Mass Deception (Gronk or Bronc) Play!

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Kelso W/ratings

100* ARIZONA

10* New England
10* Under NE / Denver
10* Under Zona / Carolina

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Stephen Nover

over ari/car