10-9-16

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Larry Ness’ NFL Sunday Afternoon Superstar Triple Play (MASSIVE 76% RUN w/ TOP RATED 10* NFL YTD!)

This three game report contains plays on the Texans, the Browns and the Jets.

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST). Minnesota has quickly transitioned from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Bradford and is a perfect 4-0 behind the league’s second-best defense. Houston has endured a couple of ups-and-downs with new QB Brock Osweiler under center, but the Texans come to town at 3-1. I’m not completely sold yet on Minnesota though and believe Houston’s defense will be able to get some pressure on Bradford today. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I’m definitely expecting the visitors to take this one down to the wire. Minnesota comes in off the short week after beating the Giants 24-10 on Monday night, while Houston would pull away for the 27-20 victory over Tennessee on Sunday. Osweiler has two more INT’s last week, but he also had two TD’s and 254 total passing yards. Will Fuller had seven catches for 81 yards and now has over 320 through four games. RB Lamar Miller had 82 yards rushing on 19 carries. The offense hasn’t been great though, ranked 29th in the league with 17.2 PPG average. The defense has been above average, allowing just 18.2 PPG, good enough for eighth in the league. Bradford was 26 of 36 for 262 yards and a TD last week. RB Jerick McKinnon had 85 yards off 18 carries. So far the offense averages 22 PPG, good for 16th overall. The defense has so far carried the load for Minnesota as it’s giving up just 12.5 PPG, second in the entire league. I’ll point out though that Houston is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road, 6-4 ATS in its last ten following a divisional contest and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win versus a division rival, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after three or more consecutive SU victories. I think Osweiler is underachieving. I also think Bradford is overachieving. With its bye-week happening next week, I also think the home side gets caught looking ahead to the time off. Play on Houston. Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The Patriots are in the drivers seat, sitting at 3-1 with QB Tom Brady under center once again. The Browns’ season is already over after opening 0-4. Cleveland though won’t be rolling over today and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the hungry home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. New England roared out to a 3-0 start to the season, but finally had a letdown in last week’s 16-0 setback to the visiting Bills. After recording back-to-back 100 rushing yard games, Blount was held to just 54. So far the Pats have averaged just 20.2 PPG. With Brady back, we can obviously expect that average to go up considerably over the coming weeks. The New England defense has been great so far, conceding an average of 15.2 PPG, ranked fourth in the league. Browns’ rookie QB Cody Kessler has made the most of this opportunity, last week he was 28 of 40 for 223 yards with one TD and one INT. RB Isaiah Crowell was also a bright spot, rushing for 112 yards off 15 carries. So far the offense has averaged 18.5 PPG. The defense did a good job against the Redskins’ Kirk Cousins, holding him to just 183 yards through the air last week. The defense though has been hit or miss and as a result, it’s giving up 28.8 PPG thus far. I’ll point out that New England is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of 7.5 to ten points and only 3-6 ATS in its last nine versus teams with losing records, while Cleveland is 8-7 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 11 points range. I think it’s going to take Brady at least a couple of quarters to get acclimated and that’s going to leave the back door open for Cleveland to comfortably sneak through with the large spread. Play on the Browns. Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST). It’s essentially do-or-die for New York after a 1-3 start and with Tom Brady returning to division rival New England as a 1-4 hole will likely be impossible for “Gang Green” to climb out of. Pittsburgh on the other hand comes in contented after its big 43-14 victory over the Chiefs last weekend. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel tha tthis is too many points to be giving up to this desperate New York side. Jets’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was 23 of 41 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s last week. Fitzpatrick now has ten INT’s to just six TD’s, but that number is a little skewed, as most are back-loaded, occuring in the fourth quarter when New York has been forced to play from behind. So far the offense has averaged 26.2 points, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. The defense slowed down the Seahawks on the ground last week, holding Seattle to just 58 rushing yards. The Steelers saw QB Ben Roethlisberger go 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five TD’s with no picks. QB Le’Veon Bell returned from suspension and posted 144 yards. So far the offense averages 27 PPG, ranked ninth overall. The defense has been solid as well, allowing 20 PPG, which ranks 12th in the NFL. I’ll point out that New York is 2-0 ATS in its last two against the AFC North and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 when playing the role of underdog, while Pittsburgh is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a fav of 3.5 to 9.5 points and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten when playing the role of favorite. I think the desperation level in which New York plays with today will turn out to be the difference. Play on the Jets. Good luck…

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Sleepyj
3*
Baltimore -3.5

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Stephen nover
3*
San Diego +4.5

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The Computer Group

Patriots / Browns Over 47
Steelers Jets Under 49
Bears / Colts Under 48
Bills / Rams Over 40
Raiders / Chargers Over 51

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA*|*LOS ANGELES*at*MINNESOTA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 off 3 consecutive wins against division rivals, playing with 3 or more days rest
28-8*since 1997.**(*77.8%*|*19.2 units*)

WNBA*|*LOS ANGELES*at*MINNESOTA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (LOS ANGELES) after a road game where both teams score 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
59-47*over the last 5 seasons.**(*55.7%*|*0.0 units*)
12-13*this year.**(*48.0%*|*0.0 units*)

WNBA*|*LOS ANGELES*at*MINNESOTA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 off a win against a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more
58-26*since 1997.**(*69.0%*|*29.4 units*)
3-4*this year.**(*42.9%*|*-1.4 units*)

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*CLEVELAND*at*BOSTON
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start
44-28*over the last 5 seasons.**(*61.1%*|*28.8 units*)
11-11*this year.**(*50.0%*|*3.3 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*TEXAS*at*TORONTO
TEXAS is 136-95 (+55.9 Units) against the money line in night games*over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.6) , OPPONENT (4.5)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Oklahoma (-10) on Saturday and likes the Chargers on Sunday.

The deficit is 1155 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo goes to the Broncs

Hondo stopped the bleeding Saturday night thanks to the drilling Michigan gave Rutgers, which ended the losing streak at four and elevated the earnings to 3,653 mecklenbergs.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will try his luck with the Broncos over the Dirty Birds — 20 units.

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks 10/9

Green Bay -7

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Sky Blue

Lions +4
Rams +1
Giants +7

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Fezzik | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 9 2016 1:00PM
453 TEN / 454 MIA UNDER 43.5 Southpoint double-dime bet

Fezzik | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 9 2016 4:25PM
469 SDC / 470 OAK OVER 50.5 Southpoint double-dime bet

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 9 2016 4:25PM
471 CIN-1.0(-110) Southpoint vs 472 DAL double-dime bet

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Exodus to Black

Early releases

NFL
New England-9.5-120
Buffalo under 40
Eagles-2.5

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Marco D'Angelo

Perfect spot for the Home Team to pull the upset. The Eagles are the talk of the NFL at 3-0 but this is an absolute horrible spot for them this week. Three weeks ago the Eagles dismantled the Bears. Two ago ago they embarrassed the Steelers 34-3. We had the Eagles that day because Pittsburgh was in a horrible spot coming off hated division rival Cincinnati and had a Sunday Night game up next. Philadelphia won easily and that was their statement game. The Eagles had last week off as it was their bye week and honestly it came at the worst time. The last thing you want is to stop momentum and taking the week off just did that. This young team got to sit around for a week all Fat N Sassy starting the season 3-0 and beating the Steelers 34-3. Now you have a rookie QB as a road favorite? Not for me as even though Detroit is just 1-3 the 3 losses have come by a total of 11 points. It also must be noted that Detroit has played 3 of 4 on the road including back to back at Green Bay and Chicago. Bottom line is Philadelphia isn’t as good as the public thinks and Detroit is much better than their 1-3 record would indicate. My numbers have Detroit Winning 27-20.

TAKE DETROIT +2.5 as MARCO’S 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

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Maddux


20* San Diego +4
10* Detroit +3
10* Cincinnati -1

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Doc Sports
8*-chargers...
4* patriots...
4* -det...
4*-atlanta...
4* -under cinn-dall

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Norm Hitzges

NFL

SINGLE PLAYS

Cincinnati -1 Dallas
Tennessee +3 1/2 Miami
San Diego +3 1/2 Oakland
LA Rams -2 1/2 Buffalo
NY Giants +7 Green Bay
LA Rams---Buffalo UNDER 39 1/2
Carolina -7 Tampa Bay

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Cousin sal

Detroit 300
Giants 400

Best Bet

NE on ML 8560

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Double dragon sports nfl week #5
6-UNIT TOP
VIKINGS -6.5 vs texans (1pm)

5-UNIT XTRA-STRONGS
REDSKINS +4 (-115) at ravens (1pm)
BRONCOS -4 (-125) vs falcons (4:05pm)
CHARGERS +4 (-115) at raiders (4:25pm)
BENGALS -PK (-125) ML at cowboys (4:25pm)
GIANTS +7 (-115) at packers (SNF)
PANTHERS -4 (-115) vs bucs (MNF)

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Indian Cowboy




3-Unit Play. #456. Take Cleveland Browns +10.5 over New England Patriots (Sunday @ 1pm est)

Brady is Back! But, he faces a desperate Cleveland team who will not win this game, but who will have a strong effort as they face the premiere NFL squad here in the Patriots. This is one of the best public fades on the board and note the Browns have been much better than people have given them credit as given all their injuries they have been in their games this year including Miami and Washington. We like Cleveland to step up here and surprise the Pats a bit here and give Brady a rude awakening in his first game back as we have the Pats winning by a touchdown on the road. The Browns are not going to the playoffs but they certainly will be looking forward to and will be up for this game.



3-Unit Play. #463. Take Chicago Bears +4.5 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday @ 1pm est)

The Bears looked a lot better last week beating a Lions team and the oddsmakers also that they were primed for a big home win. This is why they made them into just a 3 point home underdog to the Lions. Now, the Bears are just 4.5 point underdogs on the road to the Colts. Look the Bears Coaching Staff is very well aware that they are on the hot seat and if this team does not change for the better fast, then the organization will be cleaning house. And, winning back to back games will go a long way. The Colts are dismal. We have a future on them to go under the posted total in their win total and that is exactly what is happening. We like the Bears here to continue to get better and come together as a team and this is a high quality public fade this weekend as well and also one of our NFL Hilton Picks.



3-Unit Play. #466. Take Denver Broncos -5.5 over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS and they likely move to 5-0 ATS here. We are still not sold on the Falcons who sure beat a Cam Newton-less Panther team, beat a questionable Saints team at best and beat a young Oakland team as they were hoping to avoid an 0-2 start which was a must win. But this is a let down spot here for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and the Broncos defense will be up for the challenge. This is the kind of stuff the Broncos love to get up for and their defense will absolutely relish the challenge of Julio. We like Atlanta's offense to relatively lackluster on the road and Denver to ride their strong defense and quality game planning against the Falcons and get it done here. This is the best defense the Falcons offense will have faced all year and there is a reason why Denver is still undefeated. We like Denver to do well this weekend.



7-Unit Play. #467. Take Buffalo Bills vs. St. LA Rams Over 39.5 (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)

Whereas everyone believes this game will go Under, we like this game to go Over the posted total. The Bills only scored 16 points in their last game and their defense shutout the Patriots. But, this team will still field questions constantly about the firing of their offensive coordinator despite the fact they are 2-0 without their offensive coordinator who took the brunt for what was a slow start. We like this offense to bounce-back here and put up a decent number of points as they put up 33 points against the Cardinals and 31 against the Jets. And, this is a very fickle LA defense which gave up just 13 points to Arizona on the road last week but prior to that had given up 32 to Tampa Bay on the road and 28 to San Francisco in the opening week. We like the Over here as we think both offenses will surprise and we like the Bills defense to have a let down after pitching a shutout last week as well. Look for this contest to likely go over the posted total as this is a high quality public fade to boot as well and consequently with both offenses wanting to step up here after a poor performance last week and both defenses on let downs, we like the Over this weekend.



3-Unit Play. #468. Take Los Angeles Rams -2.5 over Buffalo (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)

We don't normally have 2 selections on the same game but we like the Rams here. At the end of the day, we believe the Bills defense will have a bigger let down than the Rams defense as the Bills defense is still very undisciplined. We like St. Louis to contineu to come together as a team as their wins are quite impressive including beating the Cardinals, Seahawks and Bucs on the road and to keep rolling here.