2-5-17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Here are the upcoming system bet(s):


LA Clippers {A} bet - This is an unofficial bet because Chris Paul is injured & out.

Note that all bets labeled with either {B} or {C} are Exterminator system plays. Bet a flat percentage of your bankroll as instructed in the system manual.

Make sure to follow the Exterminator NBA System guidelines below:

- All {A} bets are not part of the Exterminator system. Unless, however, if you have the ability to buy 3 points at -170 odds, then it is strongly advisable to place a small wager on all the {A} bets with buying 3 points, up to 5% of your bankroll. This is an optional betting strategy, which has proven to be a profitable one based on my research. Buying 3 points on {A} bets has won over 65% of the time over the years, so you should bet on {A} bets if you can buy 3 points at -170 odds.

-All {B} and {C} bets are qualified under both the original NBA system as well as the Exterminator system. For the Exterminator system, bet a flat percentage of your bankroll on both {B} and {C} bets. You do not need to buy any points on these bets under the Exterminator system.

- Remember to bet on the point spread (handicap line)

- If your team is a favorite of -3 or more, bet on the money line. If the team is a big favorite resulting in odds that are too unfavorable for you to be comfortable with, then you can either optionally skip the series, or bet on the point spread, but do not continue betting on the series if your team wins the game but the bet does not cover.


Always consider the injury and the best/worst road team filters. Check the injuries to ensure your team's best player isn't out. I will always make my best effort to notify you of game-changing injuries whenever I am aware of them to ensure that you don't make wagers on team that don't pass the injury filter. However, I cannot make guarantees that I will always be able to be on top of every single injury, every game, every day, at all times. Some teams may hold off on releasing relevant injury information until much later in the day. A bet will be unofficial if it does not pass the filters of the system. Ultimately as a bettor, I always strongly encourage that if there's any uncertainty about the status of your team's best player for a game that you always check on final injury updates.

Good luck,
The "Champ" Team

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total Sun, 02/05/17 - 6:35 PM

triple-dime bet

101 NEP / 102 ATL UNDER 59.5 Sportsbook.agAnalysis: It's easy to think shootout with these two teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. The oddsmaker certainly thinks so posting the highest Super Bowl total ever.


Atlanta has a record-setting offense. Brady had another epic season. But a lot has to go right for a total to go above this number. These offenses are actually so precise that it's a factor for the under. Let me explain that.


Neither team turns the ball over. They each had 11 giveaways during the season, tying for the lowest mark. The Falcons have had only one turnover in their last six games. So this should be a clean game meaning no short drives based on great field position off a turnover, or a fluke defensive touchdown.


The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break style of a well-crafted defense. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed at 15.6 per game. Yes, the Patriots played easy offensive opponents and weak quarterbacks in most of their games. But surrendering fewer than 16 points a game for an entire season still is impressive. New England has a very strong secondary. Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty are elite players.


There probably isn't a more well-coached defense than the Patriots. Having two weeks to prepare is huge, too, for the Patriots. Only three opponents have scored 30 plus points in 33 playoff games against Belichick. In 18 of those 33 games, playoff foes scored 20 points or less.


The Falcons offense is too diversified and playing at too high of a level to hold completely down. But they are not in Georgia Dome, could accumulate some rust with the layoff and won't be able to make many long gains against a New England defense geared to prevent big plays. It's going to take long patient drives for the Falcons - featuring a balanced attack - for them to get points. Any drive resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown is a win for the under with a total this high.


Atlanta's defense has improved as the season progressed so its overall statistics are skewed. The Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. Dan Quinn has transformed the Falcons from a finesse defense weak in the trenches into an aggressive, hard-hitting unit that found the right blitzing lanes against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game. Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in sacks. The Patriots also are without their No. 1 receiving weapon, Rob Gronkowski.


The way to beat Atlanta is ball-control with a lot of power running. The Patriots can do that with LeGarrette Blount mixed up with Brady moving the chains with short passes. That's an effective attack. It's also time consuming.


It's asking a lot for a touchdown to result after each long drive. That's what needs to happen, though, when you have an over/under in this record range. I don't see it occurring frequently enough. Under is the way to go.


Super Bowl Props

I find this Super Bowl harder than most for individual player props, which I normally like to specialize in, because these offenses spread things around so much. Any fantasy football player can tell you how difficult it is to project what Patriots will do well on any given week because their game plans can either go run heavy with LeGarrette Blount, or pass happy with a different receiver featured. I do think the Patriots will try to get Dion Lewis free in space against Atlanta linebackers so I would look to bet Lewis Over 2 receptions.
My top prop, though, is laying around $1.75 on NO there will not be a special teams, or defensive touchdown. Neither team has a dangerous kick returner and both teams tied for the fewest giveaways during the regular season with just 11. Atlanta has turned the ball over once in its last six games. Brady doesn't throw interceptions unless he's heavily pressured and Atlanta lacks a great pass rush.


Pick Made: Jan 23 2017 9:36PM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Patriots -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan



Feb 05 '17, 6:30 PM
NFL | Patriots vs Falcons

Play on: Patriots -3 -105

50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 Super Bowl action set to start at 6:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. We also like the adjusted spread of Patriots -10 ½ that currently pays 220/100 and Patriots -14 ½ that pays +450/100. So, make these prop adjusted line wagers no more than 20% of your normal wager on our plays. So, a $500 wager becomes a $100 wager for the prop bets.
More prop bets:
1. Will the team that scores first win the game? NO pays +130 Obviously, we are playing for Atlanta to get out fast.
2. Total FG made Over 3 ½ -125
3. Patriots win by 11 to 13 +1100
4. Falcons lead at the Half and Patriots win + 350
5. Who will have more I.Thomas (Celtics) or Patriots total points. Patriots – ½ -105
6. Who will have more Celtics 1H points or L. Blount rushing yards. Blount -1 ½ -120
7. MVP – Chris Hogan at 30:1
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-4 mark good for 90% winners and has made 30.2 units/unit wagered since 2006. Play on favorites vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) quick starting team outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Patriots are 41-16 ATS (+23.4 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards
Patriots are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons.
Patriots are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play this season.
Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing below-average defensive teams allowing greater than 5.65 yards/play this season.
Patriots are 18-1 against the money line (+14.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons.
And here is the one major situation that also supported Denver last year in Super Bowl 50. Teams coming off any playoff game that scored 40 or more points are just 11-18 SU and 4-25 ATS in the next game in all playoff and SB games played since 1996. Fine tuning this a bit, we find these high-powered offenses come crashing to earth with a 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS mark when scoring when scoring more than 40 points, ATS win, and zero TO since 2000.
Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots.
The Falcons were gashed for 208 rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 10 and then allowed more than 99 rushing yards in every game since. These yards were gained between the tackles and the Eagles exploited that weakness. In our opinion, it is very likely that the Patriots game plan will be to establish and dominate the line of scrimmage with a pounding rushing attack led by Blount and augmented by Lewis and others. This will then open up play action for Brady allowing him more than enough time to scan the field and identify the best opportunity and deliver accurately for big gains. This is where Chris Hogan may shine and has a shot at the MVP. He is a strong and big WR, who runs excellent routes on every down and creates space to receive the ball and then gain more yards after the catch. Of all the Patriots WR, he may be the one that creates the most space in his routes and is extremely smart after the catch.
The Patriots defense gets hardly any real credit from the TV talking heads. In our opinion, there is no doubt that the Patriots defense will create major read issues for Ryan.
Now, the expected game plan is that the mythical Belichick will design a scheme to take away Julio Jones. However, if you look at previous games this season, Antonio Brown and AJ Green had monster games, but their offenses still score less than 20 points.
The Patriots rank second in the NFL this season in corner shadowing. This means that they allocate a corner to cover the same WR for the majority of the game. In this scheme, we think the surprise move will be to put Rowe on Jones. Butler has the elite speed, but not the size to cover Jones consistently, but using Rowe and then occasionally Butler will create that unpredictability that eliminates any OC to anticipate matchups in any down situation.
The Patriots used the blitz on 25% percent of their opponents’ drop backs this season ranking 26th-highest rate in the league. But Belichick takes ‘not blitzing’ a step further by only rushing three defenders or fewer on 26% of their passing plays this season. That’s far and away an outlier in the NFL today with the Cowboys next closest, at 19%, and the majority of teams are under 10%. On first downs, New England used it 21% of the time and on every single down, except for fourth, they are more likely to rush three players than to blitz.
The biggest single advantage in dropping eight into coverage is that it allows for a double team without eliminate the underneath coverage man that is present in a four-man rush. This also allows for one corner (Rowe) to man-up against Jones and the other 7 defenders in zone scheme. Last, this scheme takes away WR and RB screens from Atlanta’s play calling. Patriots allowed all of 77 yards on screen plays this year. The next closest team was the Buccaneers, at 164, and the league average was 315.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

NBA SuPick Okl City -4 1/2

Gold Keys NE Pats -3, CBB IOWA -6, opinion UNDER the total 59 Super Bowl

freePlay Temple -15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine props

Quarterback
Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Tom Brady Pass Yds 310.5 265.1 UNDER (61.2%) Calc -->
Tom Brady Comp. 25.5 22.6 UNDER (56.8%) Calc -->
Tom Brady Att. 38.5 34.6 UNDER (54.4%) Calc -->
Tom Brady TDs Thrown 2.5 (-180/+150) 2.0 UNDER (51.3%) Calc -->
Tom Brady INT 0.5 (+120/-150) 0.5 OVER (50.0%) Calc -->
Tom Brady Rush Yards 2.5 2.0 UNDER (51.9%) Calc -->
Atlanta Quarterback

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Matt Ryan Pass Yds 310.5 262.4 UNDER (62.9%) Calc -->
Matt Ryan Comp. 25.5 21.7 UNDER (58.3%) Calc -->
Matt Ryan Att. 36.5 33.3 UNDER (53.8%) Calc -->
Matt Ryan TDs Thrown 2.5 (-160/+130) 1.9 UNDER (51.6%) Calc -->
Matt Ryan Rush Yds 5.5 8.4 OVER (56.8%) Calc -->
Matt Ryan INT 0.5 (-130)/+100) 0.7 OVER (51.6%) Calc -->
New England Running Backs

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
LeGarrette Blount Rush Yds 57.5 65.1 OVER (58.8%) Calc -->
LeGarrette Blount Rushes 15.5 14.7 UNDER (50.6%) Calc -->
Dion Lewis Rec Yds 17.5 15.1 UNDER (56.4%) Calc -->
Dion Lewis Recs 2.5 2.1 UNDER (54.0%) Calc -->
Dion Leiws Rush Yds 40.5 37.7 UNDER (54.2%) Calc -->
James White Rec Yds 25.5 15.1 UNDER (61.0%) Calc -->
Atlanta Running Backs

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Devonta Freeman Rush Yds 54.5 52.0 UNDER (52.1%) Calc -->
Devonta Freeman Rushes 13.5 11.9 UNDER (55.6%) Calc -->
Devonta Freeman Rec Yds 35.5 25.7 UNDER (60.9%) Calc -->
Devonta Freeman Recs 3.5 3.1 UNDER (52.0%) Calc -->
Tevin Coleman Rec Yds 25.5 22.3 UNDER (53.3%) Calc -->
Tevin Coleman Rush Yds 40.5 39.6 UNDER (51.4%) Calc -->
New England Receivers/Tight Ends

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Julian Edelman Rec Yds 89.5 85.9 UNDER (54.3%) Calc -->
Julian Edelman Recs 7.5 7.3 UNDER (50.2%) Calc -->
Chris Hogan Rec Yds 52.5 62.8 OVER (60.9%) Calc -->
Chris Hogan Recs 4.5 3.5 UNDER (55.4%) Calc -->
Martellus Bennett Rec Yds 37.5 39.7 OVER (53.1%) Calc -->
Martellus Bennett Rec 4 3.4 UNDER (54.2%) Calc -->
Danny Amendola Rec Yds 15.5 10.0 UNDER (59.7%) Calc -->
Danny Amendola Recs 1.5 1.0 UNDER (55.9%) Calc -->
Malcolm Mitchell Rec Yds 29.5 30.6 OVER (52.5%) Calc -->
Malcolm Mitchell Recs 2.5 3.4 OVER (59.2%) Calc -->
Atlanta Receivers/Tight Ends

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Julio Jones Rec Yds 95.5 97 OVER (53.3%) Calc -->
Julio Jones Recs 7 6.4 UNDER (52.8%) Calc -->
Mohamed Sanu Rec Yds 45.5 42.8 UNDER (52.7%) Calc -->
Mohamed Sanu Recs 4.5 4.5 OVER (50.1%) Calc -->
Taylor Gabriel Rec Yds 47.5 46.5 UNDER (50.3%) Calc -->
Taylor Gabriel Recs 3.5 3.1 UNDER (52.2%) Calc -->
Austin Hooper Rec Yds 17.5 20.3 OVER (54.1%) Calc -->
Austin Hooper Recs 2 1.7 UNDER (50.6%) Calc -->
Kickers

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Stephen Gostkowski Points 8.5 8.9 OVER (55.7%) Calc -->
Matt Bryant Points 8.0 8.5 OVER (56.4%) Calc -->
MVP Chances
Player Team MVP Chance
Tom Brady NE 45.0%
Matt Ryan ATL 29.3%
Julio Jones ATL 9.2%
Devonta Freeman ATL 3.1%
Julian Edelman NE 1.6%
LeGarrette Blount NE 1.6%
Malcolm Butler NE 1.4%
Vic Beasley ATL 1.4%
Martellus Bennett NE 1.3%
Taylor Gabriel ATL 1.2%
Dion Lewis NE 1.0%
James White NE 0.8%
Tevin Coleman ATL 0.4%
Stephen Gostkowski NE 0.4%
Matt Bryant ATL 0.3%
Chris Hogan NE 0.3%
Malcolm Mitchell NE 0.3%
Mohamed Sanu ATL 0.3%
Deion Jones ATL 0.2%
Keanu Neal ATL 0.1%
Dont'a Hightower NE 0.1%
Devin McCourty NE 0.1%
Eric Weems ATL 0.1%
Field 0.9%
Misc. Game Props

Type Line Proj. Pick/Calc
Longest FGM (Yds) 47.5 44.1 UNDER (62.5%)
Longest TD (Yds) 52.5 Yds 46.9 Yds UNDER (60.1%)
Shortest FG 25.5 Yds 27.2Yds OVER (53.9%)
OT YES (+750) 12.8% YES 13.4%
Total Sacks 4 3.4 UNDER 53.8%
Average Points by Quarter

Team 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr/OT
New England 8.2 7.3 6.8 6.0
Atlanta 6.9 7.1 5.3 5.9
Entertainment Props (lines provided by bovada.lv)

Type Line Proj. Pick/Calc
National Anthem Luke Bryan (2:09) 2:16 (OVER, 55.7%) OVER (55.7%)
Coin Flip -105 50.0% (25,004 Tails) Tails (50.0%)
Will Luke Bryan Wear Jeans Yes/No (-200/+150) Yes (68.9%) Jeans (68.9%)
Missed Extra Point Yes/No (+300/-400) No (82.6%) NO (82.6%)
Lady Gaga First Song Just Dance* 10/1 20.0% Just Dance (20.0%)
Will Matt Ryan win Both MVPs Yes/No (+300/-500) Yes (29.3%) YES (25.0%)
Lacrosse Mentioned Yes/No (-300/+200) Yes (77.5%) YES (77.5%)
Trump Mentions 1.5 (-110/-110) Under (60.5%) UNDER (60.5%)
Giselle Bundchen Shown 1.5 (+110/-150) Under (66.7%) UNDER (66.7%)
Arthur Blank Shown 2 (-110/-110) Over (55.0%) OVER (55.0%)
First Coach Mentioned Belichick/Quinn (-110/-110) Belichick (60.0%) Belichick (60.0%)
Matty Ice Mentioned 2 (-110/-110) Under (55.0%) UNDER (55.0%)
Will Luke Bryan Wear Hat Yes/No (+140/-180) Yes (44.5%) YES (44.5%)
Though not all "simulated 50,000 times" in the Predictalator, all entertainment props have been given requisite research.

[kajok]

soccer service

winbetssport

Guaranteed Double Dime Belgium Jupiler League Waregem 0 +112

Tip of the day Single Dime Switzerland Super League Young Boys -0,5 -109

Free Double Dime Spain LaLiga2 Levante -0,5, -1 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club CBB Selections

859 Indiana over

25* North Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GUAR SUPER BOWL TOTAL/YEAR

From Teyas Sports.

2/5/17

GUARANTEE PATRIOTS UNDER 58 1/2 MUST WIN OR ALL MONDAYS PLAYS ARE FREE

BONUS PLAYS NFL PATRIOTS -3 CBB FLORIDA ST. -7 WISCONSIN OVER 138 1/2 NOTRE DAME UNDER 158 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd

100 DIME
Winner # 12 of 17
- and 7 out of 9 -


Patriots - Falcons Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan


Top-Rated
1000*
Winner


Falcons - Patriots -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOM STRYKER
15-1 ATS NEARLY PERFECT SUPER BOWL WAGER


Patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Otto Sports


10* Patriots -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

nba club info
bos/la over 222.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI

5* New England -3

Forecast NE 34-ATL 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA*|*TORONTO*at*BROOKLYN
Play Over - Any team ice cold team - having lost 18 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games
48-20*since 1997.**(*70.6%*|*26.0 units*)

NBA*|*LA CLIPPERS*at*BOSTON
Play On - Any team vs the money line (LA CLIPPERS) after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, on Sunday games
57-33*over the last 5 seasons.**(*63.3%*|*31.6 units*)
10-5*this year.**(*66.7%*|*6.2 units*)

NBA*|*LA CLIPPERS*at*BOSTON
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (LA CLIPPERS) a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games
41-15*since 1997.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)
1-2*this year.**(*33.3%*|*-1.2 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB*|*NEBRASKA*at*IOWA
Play Under - Home teams against the total an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half
100-55*since 1997.**(*64.5%*|*39.5 units*)
9-7*this year.**(*56.3%*|*1.3 units*)

CBB*|*NOTRE DAME*at*N CAROLINA
Play Against - Any team (N CAROLINA) explosive offensive team - scoring 84+ points/game on the season, after scoring 80 points or more
1034-1247*since 1997.**(*45.3%*|*88.9 units*)
98-117*this year.**(*45.6%*|*-11.8 units*)

CBB*|*INDIANA*at*WISCONSIN
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 off a road win by 10 points or more, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
71-34*over the last 5 seasons.**(*67.6%*|*33.6 units*)
7-4*this year.**(*63.6%*|*2.6 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Higgs


These are the props I will be playing on Sunday


Will LeGarrett Blount score a touchdown in the first half ? YES +145


Total Receptions by LeGarrett Blount - OVER .5 +160


Total rushing yards by Devonta Freeman - OVER 54.5 -110


Will Julio Jones score a touchdown - YES -120


Will Mohamed Sanu score a touchdown - YES +145


To win MVP Martellus Bennett (NE) 50/1


To win MVP Mohamed Sanu (ATL) 80/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fargo

NBA ENFORCER OKC

CBB ENFORCER South Florida

SUPERBOWL
10* Falcons
10* OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rainman

3* - Falcons
1* - under