Saturday 8-25-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raphael Esparza

Mayweather / McGregor Over 4.5 Rounds

I know this juice is high, but if you take a breath and think about both fighters there is no way this fight ends in 5 rounds or less. Mayweather has one of the best boxing defenses I have ever seen in the boxing ring, and his boxing style will bother McGregor early and often. If anybody is getting KO'd it will be in the later rounds, and I believe this 4.5 Round Prop should be around -600 or higher. I know this fight is a circus, and the cost to watch this fight is outrageous, but there are two great undercard fights on the card as well. It wouldn't shock me to see this mega-fight go the distance, and this fight will see the later rounds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

Chicago/Tennessee
Under 43.5

The Bears first-team defense has looked outstanding, allowing just 10 points in four quarters against the Broncos and Cardinals. They've gone 'over' in each of their first two preseason games, but I don't see them going 3-0 against the total. The Titans are coming off a really high-scoring game against Carolina (34-27). They managed those 34 points despite just 360 yards of total offense and cashed in on two turnovers deep in Carolina territory for 14 cheap points. The Bears are No. 3 in the preseason in rushing attempts and the Titans are No. 7. I see both teams just trying to grind through this game and both pounding the ball on the ground. I don't think either offense is going to break out, and I can see this one somewhere in the 23-13 range.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Redblacks -2

The situation and schedule favors Ottawa in this one. Both teams played last Friday. The Redbacks "got healthy" with a momentum-building 37-18 win over Hamilton. With that game being played in southern Ontario, there was no travel between time zones. The Lions, on the other hand, are off a "deflating" 21-17 setback, on the West Coast, against Calgary. That close loss was preceded by a 41-8 thrashing at the hands of Saskatchewan. I think the Redblacks are probably catching them at the right time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Aug 26, 2017
Reims vs. Lorient
under 2.5

The free soccer play for Saturday takes place in France at 9am ET. Take the under in the match between Lorient and Reims.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS CLUB

Umass vs. Hawaii Over 61.5

This play just missed out on our premium card. The UMass Minutemen and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors kick off on Saturday, and after how they showed out last year the over has a lot of value.
Last year these two teams faced off and the Rainbow Warriors won by a final score of 46-40 and I expect a game like that again this year.
Last year the Rainbow Warriors offense had their way with the Minutmen defense, and with most of the key players back from last year, nothing should change.
Quarterback Dru Brown threw for 311 yards and five touchdowns last year against UMass and I would expect something like that again.
The Rainbow Warriors defense also struggles so UMass should have no issue running up the score when they are on offense.
Some trends to note. Over is 6-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 6 non-conference games. Over is 5-1 in Minutemen last 6 games overall.
Back the Over.

[New York Knight]

Sean Higgs

Game Details
Aug 26 '17, 7:30 PM in 21h
NCAA-F | South Florida vs San Jose State

Play on: San Jose State +22 -110 at Bovada



Game Analysis



Ready to kick of the College Football season in style as I have a Top Rated 10* MONEY BOMB going her on opening Saturday! Do not miss that WINNER $


So, pretty simple in my thinking on this one. First, a pair of new HCs for these teams. Charlie Strong ousted in Texas, takes over a pretty talented South Florida team. But never easy to lay 3 TDs and travel 3000 miles cross country to open a season. Not saying that USF will be a bad club. Just this is a tough spot to lay this number.


And why is that? Spartans also have a new regime. What really stands out to me here though is the OC. He was part of the offense in Texas with Charlie Strong and his OC Sterlin Gilbert. We only need the slightest bit of edge to slow down an offense just an ounce. Being familiar with what could be coming at you is never a bad thing.


The Bulls have a very talented QB and offense overall. Most times I am taking dogs and not even worry about points as I think they should win outright. But with a number like this, I am thinking it is close for a half before we might need one of those late back door covers. Ether way, I feel good about this home puppy.

[New York Knight]

Art Aronson

Game Details
Aug 26 '17, 8:10 PM in 22h
MLB | SFO vs ARI

Play on: UNDER 8½ +100



Game Analysis



Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that runs will likely be at a premium in this one.


Madison Bumgarner: He’s 3-5 with a 2.87 ERA. Bumgarner gave up one run off four hits over six innings against Philadelphia on Sunday, also walking one and striking out seven in the unfortunate no-decision. Bumgarner will be looking to finish the season strong despite the Giants now almost completely without hope in making the playoffs (note that he owns a 2.85 ERA on the road.)


Taijuan Walker: He’s 6-7 with a 3.66 ERA. Walker went 5.1 scoreless innings against the Mets on Monday, also unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his superb effort. Walker sports a respectable 1.32 WHP and 8.0 K/9.


The bottom line: We’re expecting these competent hurlers to battle into the latter frames. Consider a play on the UNDER.

[New York Knight]

Doug Upstone

Aug 26 '17, 2:30 PM in 15h
NCAA-F | Oregon State vs Colorado State


Play on: OVER 60 -110



The first battle of the new season will be played in a brand new venue, currently named Colorado State Stadium. The pictures are gorgeous and both squads have their starting quarterbacks returning. The betting interest has been on the totals side, dumping it 62.5 to 60. Each team does bring back eight defensive starters from ordinary defenses. With the Rams at home, a good team and excited about first game in a new stadium, I prefer the higher score.

[New York Knight]

Sean Murphy

Aug 26 '17, 8:00 PM in 20h
NFLX | Raiders vs Cowboys


Play on: Cowboys -3 -120 at 5Dimes



Saturday NFLX free play. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Oakland at 8 pm et on Saturday.


I'll lay the points with the Cowboys on Saturday night. Dallas has the advantage of staying home for a second straight week while the Raiders will be playing in their third city in as many weeks. Of course, Dallas also has the advantage of playing its fourth game of the preseason. The Cowboys starters should see extended time in this one. While the same can be said for the Raiders first unit on both sides of the football, I'm not sure we'll see a real sense of urgency. Yes, Oakland is winless so far but a victory is by no means a must on Saturday night. I simply feel the Cowboys have a considerable edge in terms of depth, and they've looked every bit like a team that's interested in setting a winning tone here in August. Take Dallas (8*).

[New York Knight]

ASA

Aug 26 '17, 7:30 PM in 20h
NCAA-F | South Florida vs San Jose State


Play on: South Florida -21 -110 at BMaker



ASA FREE PLAY on South Florida Bulls (-) over San Jose State Spartans, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET

A pair of new head coaches matched up in this one but the head coaching experience edge goes to the Bulls Charlie Strong here. He also inherits the much more talented team including a very potent offense with QB Quinton Flowers and a host of returning talent for South Florida. The weakness for the Bulls was defense last season but that has been the focus for Strong and he'll have this unit ready to go early this season. That said, and with a match-up against an FCS team (Stonybrook) on deck, Strong wants to make a statement in this opening game of the season. With the point-spread coming back down to a 21 (from as high as a 22.5) we like the value here with USF as of Friday afternoon and we're laying the 21 points. The Bulls are on an 11-4 ATS run as a favorite and, overall, in Saturday games South Florida is on a 14-5 ATS run. The Spartans had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year and are now led by a 44-year old head coach, Brent Brennan, whom has no head coaching experience. San Jose State is on a 2-5 ATS run as a big dog of 13 points or more the past 3 seasons combined. Strong has some pent up frustration from the way his tenure ended at Texas. He will take out his frustration on San Jose State! FREE PLAY: Lay the big points with the South Florida Bulls in evening action Saturday!

[New York Knight]

At the Gate - Saturday
August 25, 2017
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider



SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (11:35 ET)

#8 Good Magic 5-2
#2 Hazit 3-1
#6 High North 6-1
#5 Road to Meath 7-2

Analysis: Good Magic is one of two firsters in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn that is 20% winners overall with first time starters. Brown has hit with 3 of 13 juvie firsters at this meeting to date. This colt was a $1 million Keeneland purchase, by Curlin out of the stakes winner Glinda the Good ($226,758) who has dropped one winner. The colt is working quickly in the mornings capped off by a sharp gate drill on Aug. 20. He looks ready to fire.

Hazit debuts for the Pletcher barn that is 4 for 15 (with a +ROI) with two-year-old debut runners at this meeting. The $430,000 Ocala purchase is by War Front out of the stakes winner Rumor ($418,391) her first foal to race. Solid looking works over the Oklahoma training track and Johnny V. takes the call.

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,5,6,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,5,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8



Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 10 The Sword Dancer G1 (4:49 ET)

#7 Idaho 2-1
#6 Erupt 3-1
#3 Sadler's Joy 5-1
#5 Money Multiplier 7-2

Analysis: Idaho ships in from overseas for the O'Brien barn. The colt won the Hardwicke (G2) two back at Ascot and then last out ran third in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) behind a couple of good runners. The winner Enable came back to win the Yorkshire Oaks (G1) on Thursday at York and the runner up Ulysses came back to win the Juddmonte International (G1) on Wednesday. The colt was no match for Erupt in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine last fall but comes in here in much better form than his main rival and Ryan Moore is in to ride.

Erupt faded to finish ninth in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (G1) and has now lost three in a row since taking the Canadian International. He likes his ground firmer and he will get it this afternoon which should get him back on track. The multiple Group 1 winner is better than he has showed in his last three outings.

Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7



Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 9 The Pat O'Brien G2 (6:09 PT)

#8 Danzing Candy 8-5
#6 Kobe's Back 6-1
#1 Moe Candy 6-1
#4 Silent Bird 5-1

Analysis: Danzing Candy is going to be tough as the chalk here for Baffert. The colt dueled for the early lead and finished gamely to win the San Carlos (G2) last out by a neck. The runner up Ransom the Moon came back to win the Bing Crosby (G1) in his next outing on July 29. For a sprint, there is not much confirmed early speed in here and this guy is going to be on or just off the pace.

Kobe's Back was off a beat slow and after being outrun early came with a mild late run to finish fourth in the Bing Crosby, beaten 4 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The pace set up is not ideal for this guy but he does get an extra furlong here. Prat picks up the call and has been live when riding for this barn.

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,4,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 1,4,6,8 / 1,4,6,8,11


Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga

R3: #2 Chirping 12-1
R6: #5 Eskenformoney 12-1
R7: #7 Highway Star 10-1
R9: #1 Stallwalkin’ Dude 8-1
R11: #9 McCraken 12-1
R11: #1 Cloud Computing 8-1
R13: #6 Mohican 8-1
$13: #5 Champagne Papi 12-1

[New York Knight]

Saturday's Early Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider



**Oregon State at Colorado State**

-- Gary Andersen is entering his third season of a rebuild job in Corvallis after he left Wisconsin to replace Mike Riley at Oregon State. The Beavers went 2-10 straight up and 3-9 against the spread in his first year, improving to 4-8 SU and 8-4 versus the number last season. They finished 2016 on a tear for our purposes, compiling a 7-1 spread record in their last eight games, winning outright in their last two outings at home vs. Arizona (42-17) and Oregon (34-24).

-- Andersen named juco transfer Jake Luton his starting quarterback in mid-August, prompting Marcus McMaryion to leave the program for Fresno State as a grad transfer. McMaryion started the last six games for the Beavers in 2016. For the season, he completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,286 yards with a 10/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- Oregon State returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. OSU is loaded in the backfield with running back Ryan Nall returning. Nall rushed for 951 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. RB Artavis Pierce had a solid true freshman season in ’16, rushing for 523 yards and four TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Andersen landed a pair of grad transfers for depth, including Trevorris Johnson from TCU and Oregon’s Thomas Tyner, who is a former 5-star recruit but hasn’t played since 2014 due to injuries. Nall also had 22 catches for 214 yards and two TDs last year, while Pierce had 21 receptions for 132 yards and one TD.

-- Oregon State junior WR Seth Collins is ‘out’ against the Rams due to a finger injury that could keep him sidelined into September. Collins, who started seven games at QB in 2015 before logging nine starts at WR last season, had 36 receptions for 418 yards and one TD in 2016.

-- As of Aug. 18, most betting shops had Colorado State installed as a 3.5-point favorite. One offshore book opened the total at 62 on Aug. 13, but it moved down to 61 a day later and remained there on Aug. 18. By Tuesday of this week (8/22), the total was at 58.5 or 59 at most spots, while the Rams remained 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ (with a couple of shops at four). Gamblers can take the Beavers on the money line for a +155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

-- Oregon State owns a 5-6 spread record as a road underdog during Anderson’s brief tenure. The Beavers are winless in those 11 road assignments, but we’ll point out that they did take the cash in last year’s season-opening loss at Minnesota by a 30-23 count as 13-point ‘dogs.

-- Colorado State has finished 7-6 in both of its first two seasons under Mike Bobo, the former QB and long-time offensive coordinator at Georgia before getting his first head-coaching gig at CSU. The Rams were an impressive 9-4 ATS last year, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home. They have compiled a 5-2 spread record in seven games as home favorites on Bobo’s watch.

-- CSU brings back six starters on offense and eight on defense. Bobo’s team returns its top four rushers, two excellent QBs and three of its top four WRs. Nick Stevens completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,936 yards with a 19/5 TD-INT ratio in ’16. He also ran for a pair of scores. Stevens has a 41/17 career TD-INT ratio in 21 career starts, but he was intercepted only three times in his last seven starts of last season. He was a second-team All-MWC selection in ’15.

-- As a true freshman in ’16, CSU’s Collin Hill was named the starting QB in Week 3. He would go 2-2 in four starts before going down with a season-ending injury in a 31-24 home win over Utah State Before the injury, Hill connected on 58.1 percent of his throws for 1,096 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Stevens has been named the starter, but Hill is healthy and ready to go.

-- Stevens has one of the best wideouts in the Mountain West Conference in senior Michael Gallup, who earned first-team All-MWC honors after catching 76 balls for 1,272 yards and 14 TDs in ’16. Olabisi Johnson had 28 receptions for 613 yards and four TDs last season, averaging 21.9 yards per catch.

-- Colorado State’s offensive line is anchored by center Jake Bennett, a second-team All-MWC selection last year who has 29 career starts to his credit. The only other o-line starter that’s back is senior OT Zack Golditch, who has made 25 career starts. This unit will look to pave holes for Dalyn Dawkins, Izzy Matthews, Marvin Kinsey and Detrich Clark, who combined to rush for nearly 2,300 yards and 27 rushing TDs last year.

-- Kinsey rushed for a team-best 919 yards and four TDs with a 5.7 YPC average last season. Matthews rushed for 734 yards and a team-high 13 TDs while averaging 4.8 YPC. Kinsey, who is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. OSU with a knee injury, rushed for 546 yards and seven TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Clark has moved to WR after rushing for 247 yards and three TDs on 36 attempts (6.9 YPC).

-- CSU junior DB Braylin Scott is out indefinitely due to legal issues. Scott recorded 39 tackles and three interceptions last year. Senior LB Deonte Clyburn, a likely starter if he can get back to 100-percent health remained out indefinitely due to blood clots. Clyburn redshirted last season for a similar issue, but he registered 74 tackles and seven tackles for loss in ’15.

-- These schools have met twice before, splitting a pair of meetings, but they haven’t faced each other since 1975. This is OSU’s first trip to Ft. Collins and it is only the fourth time a Power Five opponent has come here since 2004. Andersen went 1-1 against the Rams when he was the head coach at Utah State prior to leaving for Wisconsin.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network.




**Hawaii at Massachusetts**

-- As of Aug. 18, this game was a pick ‘em at many spots, while others had either team favored by one point. One offshore shop opened the total at 64, but it went up to 64.5 the next day and that’s where it remained as of Aug. 18. By Tuesday of this week (8/22), most books had UMass favored by 1.5 or two with the total down to 62.5 points.

-- Hawaii went 7-7 SU and 5-8-1 ATS last season, going to its first bowl game since 2010 in its first year under head coach Nick Rolovich. The Warriors thumped Middle Tennessee by a 52-35 count as seven-point home underdog in the Hawaii Bowl. However, we should note that the Blue Raiders were without their star QB Brent Stockstill.

-- During Norm Chow’s dismal tenure at Hawaii from 2012-2015, the Warriors lost 23 of 24 road games. However, they went 3-3 on the road last year under Rolovich, winning outright at San Jose State, at Air Force (in double overtime as 16.5-point ‘dogs) and at Fresno State

-- Hawaii returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. The offense is led by sophomore QB Dru Brown, who took over as the starter after the Warriors lost three of their first four games last season. Brown completed 62.4 percent of his throws for 2,488 yards with a 19/7 TD-INT ratio. He loses his favorite target Marcus Kemp, but the team has plenty of depth and experience at the WR position. As a redshirt freshman in ’16, John Ursua hauled in 53 receptions for 652 yards and three TDs. Dylan Collie added 33 catches for 322 yards and four TDs.

-- Hawaii RB Diocemy Saint Juste rushed for a team-high 1,006 yards and three TDs last year, averaging 6.1 YPC in the process. He also had eight catches for 56 yards and one TD.

-- Hawaii’s defense is led by All-American candidate Jahlani Tavai, a junior LB who garnered first-team All-MWC honors after tallying 129 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, four QB hurries, two forced fumbles, two passes broken up, one fumble recovery and one interception in ’16. Senior safety Trayvon Henderson is another standout, recording 90 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, two sacks, seven PBU, one QB hurry, one blocked kick and three interceptions, including one pick-six. This unit gave up 37.3 points per game in ’16 and has a new coordinator in Legi Suiaunoa, who has been a d-line coach at Montana (’11-’15) and Hawaii since 2011.

-- UMass finished ’16 with a 2-10 SU record and a 7-5 ATS mark. Although the Minutemen are an abysmal 8-28 SU since HC Mark Whipple took over for his second stint here in ’14, they have been decent for our purposes with a 19-17 ATS record.

-- UMass lost three one-possession games last season and picked up its wins at home vs. FIU (21-13) and vs. Wagner (34-10). The Minutemen faced three SEC opponents, going 3-0 ATS in losses at Florida (24-7), vs. Mississippi State (47-35) and at South Carolina (34-28). They bring back six starters on offense and nine on defense.

-- Junior QB Andrew Ford started nine of 12 games last year, throwing for 2,665 yards with a 26/14 TD-INT ratio. He also ran for a pair of scores. Ford has one of the nation’s best tight ends, former five-star recruit Adam Breneman who signed with Penn State out of high school and was prep teammates with Ford. In his first season with UMass, Breneman made 70 catches for 808 yards and eight TDs. Junior WR Andy Isabella is off an excellent sophomore year when he brought down 62 balls for 801 yards and seven TDs. UMass also returns leading rusher Marquis Young, who had 898 rushing yards and four TDs with a 4.6 YPC average in ’16.

-- When these teams met in the regular-season finale last season at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii captured a 46-40 win but the Minutemen took the money as a 7.5-point road underdog. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57-point total. Trailing 40-26 with less than seven minutes remaining, UMass scored a pair of TDs in less than 90 seconds to pull even. However, Brown would find Kellan Ewaliko on a 56-yard scoring strike with 3:52 left to provide the winning points. For bettors who might’ve bought the hook to seven from 7.5 with a Hawaii wager, they were left furious (& push-less) when the extra-point kick was missed.

-- This is a non-televised game that will kick at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.



**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- BYU will square off with FCS opponent Portland State in Provo on Saturday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. This game did not have a spread as of Tuesday, but some books will probably throw up a number by later Friday afternoon. Most games between FBS and FCS teams eventually get a line, but the books usually don’t release it until late Friday or early Saturday.

-- Georgia Tech took a big loss late last week when sophomore RB Dedrick Mills was kicked off the team for undisclosed reasons. Mills led the Yellow Jackets in rushing as a true freshman, gaining 771 yards and scoring 12 TDs with a 5.1 YPC average. They open at the new Mercedes Dome in Atlanta against Tennessee in Week 1.

-- Mark Richt named junior Malik Rosier as Miami’s starting QB on Aug. 22. Rosier threw for 272 yards in his only career start in ’15 when the Hurricanes won at Duke on the wild and controversial finish with laterals galore on the kick return as time expired.

-- Kentucky senior WR Dorian Baker is out for an indefinite period of time with an ankle injury, and there’s speculation he could done for the entire season. Baker has started 23 career games, producing 88 receptions for 1,015 yards and six TDs. He had a team-best 55 catches in ’15.

-- Rutgers has named ex-Louisville QB Kyle Bolin as its starter for the opener vs. Washington.

-- Florida landed a transfer on Monday when Texas offensive lineman Jean Delance decided to become a Gator. Delance was a four-star recruit for the Longhorns in the ’16 class. He’ll sit out this year per transfer rules and then have three years of eligibility for UF.

[New York Knight]

Saturday's Late Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider



**South Florida at San Jose State**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had USF installed as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 71.5 points for ‘over/under’ wagers. The total was at 66.5 on Wednesday, moving five points in the span of just 48 hours. The Bulls were favored by 20.5 earlier in the week, but the number on the side eventually slipped north of the key number of 21. Most spots had the Spartans with 10/1 odds on the money line (risk $100 to win $1,000).

-- South Florida lost head coach Willie Taggart to Oregon, but it found an excellent replacement in Charlie Strong. Strong cut his teeth as a long-time defensive coordinator at multiple SEC schools like Florida and South Carolina before a strong run as head coach at Louisville, where he went 11-2 and 12-1 in ’12 and ‘13. That success earned him an offer at Texas, which came with greenbacks galore but was never going to be a good fit. The Texas job brings with it the demands of The Longhorn Network, something that worked perfectly for Mack Brown but was never going to mesh with Strong’s personality. So he gets a fresh start right in the heart of an area he’s thrived in as a recruiter for more than two decades. Strong inherits enough talent and such a soft schedule that going undefeated is a realistic goal.

-- USF returns seven starters on offense and nine on defense from a team that finished 11-2 with its only losses coming vs. FSU and at Temple (on a short week in a cold-weather game). The Bulls beat South Carolina 46-39 in overtime at the Birmingham Bowl. Seven of their victories came by margins of 15 points or more.

-- Marlon Mack, the school’s all-time leading rusher who produced 3,609 yards on the ground in three seasons, elected to skip his senior season to turn pro a year early. But D’Ernest Johnson is a capable replacement who ran for 543 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry in 2016.

-- Senior QB Quinton Flowers will break Mack’s school rushing record if he can duplicate the 1,530 rushing yards he produced last year. Flowers is third in school annals currently with 2,594 career rushing yards. He had 18 TDs on the ground last year. Flowers also completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,812 yards with a 24/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- USF lost Flowers’ favorite target in Rodney Adams (67 catches for 822 yards), but four of the top five pass catchers are back. Senior WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling started all 13 games in ’16, hauling in 22 receptions for 415 yards and five TDs. Tyre McCants had 25 catches for 384 yards and four TDs, while Johnson had 28 grabs for 293 yards and five TDs.

-- USF averaged 43.8 points per game last season, but it also gave up 31.6 PPG. Strong’s ‘D’ will be led by senior LB Auggie Sanchez, a second-team All-AAC selection in ’16 when he recorded 120 tackles, six sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, three passes broken up, one interception, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one QB hurry. Senior CB Deatrich Nichols was also a second-team All-AAC pick last season. He had 49 tackles, four interceptions, seven PBU and two TFL’s.

-- USF senior WR Ryeshene Bronson is listed as ‘doubtful’ with a shoulder injury. He has started 17 career games.

-- San Jose St. limped to a 4-8 SU record with a 6-6 ATS mark last year, resulting in the dismissal of Ron Caragher after four seasons. He took the Trojans to only one bowl game. His replacement is Brent Brennan, a first-time head coach who has spent the last six years serving as the WR coach at Oregon St. Brennan served as an assistant on the staffs of both Dick Tomey (’05-’10) and Mike MacIntyre (’11-’16) at San Jose St. Brennan has hired Andrew Sowder as his offensive coordinator, and the former Baylor tight tend is the youngest FBS coordinator at the age of 28.

-- San Jose St. has compiled an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a home underdog since 2011. The Spartans beat UNLV outright as a three-point home ‘dogs last year before taking the cash in a 41-38 loss to Air Force as 11-point puppies.

-- San Jose St. brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. Five of the defenses’ top six tacklers return, including junior LB Frank Ginda, who recorded 99 tackles, 6.5 sacks, five tackles for loss, one interception and one pass broken up in 2016. Phil Steele’s magazine ranks the Spartans’ secondary as the best in the Mountain West Conference thanks to the presence of senior cornerback Andre Chachere, who finished ’16 with 14 PBU (tops in the MWC), four interceptions (fourth in the MWC) and a spot on the first-team of All-MWC selections. Senior safety Maurice McKnight had 68 tackles, two interceptions, three PBU and one QB hurry.

-- San Jose St. posted a 3-3 SU record and a 4-2 ATS ledger last year. The wins came over Portland St., Nevada and UNLV, while the Spartans picked up their other victory at Fresno St. in the regular-season finale. They lost six of their games by margins of 14 points or more.

-- San Jose St. returns its leading rusher and two of its top three WRs. Junior RB Malik Roberson rushed for a team-best 508 yards and two TDs with a 5.1 YPC average despite starting only three games. Justin Holmes hauled in 39 receptions for 613 yards and three TDs, while fellow junior wideout Tre Hartley caught 33 balls for 572 yards and four TDs.

-- USF owns 4-2 spread record in its last six games as a road favorite.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network.



**Stanford vs. Rice**

-- This is the second Sydney Cup game that will take place in Australia at Allianz Stadium, where California defeated Hawaii by a 51-31 count last August. The facility has a capacity of 45,500 and is used for rugby and soccer.

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Stanford installed as an enormous 30.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5 points. Not many shops are offering a money-line return on the Owls, but they are available for a +4750 payout at 5Dimes.eu (risk $100 to win $,4750).

-- Stanford returns 16 of 22 starters (eight on each side of the ball) from a team that went 10-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS last season. The Cardinal dropped three of four games midway through the year before finishing with a six-game winning streak, including a 25-23 victory over North Carolina at the Sun Bowl.

-- With the exception of an 8-5 record in 2014, Stanford has posted double-digit win totals in five of six seasons on David Shaw’s watch. The Cardinal has won at least 11 games in four of those years and it has won 12 twice.

-- Stanford lost its top two tacklers from a salty defense that allowed only 20.4 PPG, but it has eight of its top 10 tacklers back. This unit is led by junior LB Joey Alferi, who had 51 tackles, five sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, nine QB hurries, two interceptions and one PBU last season. Junior DT Harrison Phillips was a third-team All Pac-12 selection in ’16 when he had 46 tackles, 6.5 sacks, three TFL’s, three QB hurries and one PBU.

-- Stanford’s offense struggled last year, averaging just 26.3 PPG. This unit improved when Keller Chryst became the starter in the last six games (all wins), but he tore his ACL in the bowl game. Nevertheless, he has recovered and will get the starting nod in this spot. The junior signal caller connected on 56.6 percent of his throws for 905 yards with a 10/2 TD-INT ratio. His top two WRs are back, including Trenton Irwin, who had 37 receptions for 442 yards and one TD. JJ Arcega-Whiteside had 24 catches for 379 yards and five TDs.

-- Look for Stanford TE Kaden Smith to emerge as one of the nation’s top redshirt freshman. The five star recruit out of Marcus High School in the Dallas area chose Stanford over Alabama. Still bouncing back from a knee injury sustained during his senior year of HS and with plenty of depth at “Tight End U,” the Cardinal opted to redshirt Smith in ’16 but he’s poised to make an instant impact now.

-- Stanford lost RB Christian McCaffrey, the school’s third all-time leading rusher who produced 1,603 rushing yards, 13 TDs and a 6.3 YPC average last year. There’s a more-than-able replacement ready to step in and fill his shoes, however. Junior RB Bryce Love rushed for 783 yards and three TDs in ’16, averaging 7.1 YPC. He also had eight catches for 83 yards and one TD.

-- These schools met in last season’s regular-season finale with Stanford capturing a 41-17 victory in Palo Alto. Rice took the cash, however, covering the 35-point number as a massive road underdog. Gamblers on the total were looking at a push until Rice scored a TD with only 1:17 remaining to get the 58 combined points ‘over’ the 51-point tally. Chryst completed 11-of-16 passes for 154 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also had a 62-yard TD run to open the scoring early in the first quarter. McCaffrey ran for 204 yards and one TD, while Love had 111 rushing yards and one TD on just seven carries.

-- Rice finished 3-9 SU and 6-5-1 ATS in David Bailiff’s 10th season at the helm in 2016. It was the worst season on Bailiff’s watch since going 2-10 in 2009. He also went 3-9 in the first year of his tenure at the Conference USA school in Houston. Baliff’s overall record at Rice is 56-69, but he has led the school to a pair of 10-wins seasons (2008 & 2013) and a 3-1 record in four bowl games. Nevertheless, this is obviously a crucial year for C-USA’s second-longest tenured coach. (Middle Tennessee’s Rick Stockstill is entering his 12th season.)

-- Rice returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The Owls’ defense is led by senior LB Emmanuel Ellerbee, a first-team All C-USA selection last season when he recorded 118 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 4.5 TFL’s, three QB hurries, one PBU and one interception. They gave up 37.3 PPG in ’16.

-- A three-man race for the Rice starting QB job was won by redshirt freshman Sam Glaesmann, who stands 6’3” and threw for 178 yards and accounted for three TDs in the team’s spring game. The Waco Midway HS product had a 70-yard TD run in the scrimmage. Glaesmann threw for 3,017 yards and 29 TDs while also rushing for 605 yards and four TDs as a prep senior.

-- Rice’s leading rusher Sam Stewart is back. The junior rushed for 479 yards and three TDs with a 6.3 YPC average in ’16. Stewart also had 15 receptions for 107 yards and three TDs.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

[New York Knight]

Saturday's Best Bets
August 25, 2017
By BetOnline.ag



BetOnline.ag Best Bet #1: Colorado State Rams -4

Colorado State and Oregon State were great for bettors a year ago, as CSU finished with a 9-4 ATS record, while OSU was 8-4 ATS; including 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But this year is a new year, and with Oregon State now in Year 3 of Gary Andersen's rebuilding project there, I just don't believe they'll have the talent on the field to match up with a veteran Colorado State squad.

The Rams bring back a total of 14 starters and many of them were significant pieces to their success a year ago. Three of its top four WR's are back in the fold, as are their top two QB's, led by Nick Stevens. Stevens through 19 TD's to just 5 INT's a year ago for Colorado State, and with three of his top weapons back on the outside, a Colorado State offense that scored 42+ points in five of their last six games a year ago should be well on their way to threatening that number in this year's season opener. All four of CSU's top rushers from a year ago are back as well, so a productive, balanced attack is what is likely going to lead Colorado State to success here.

Oregon State has made solid improvements in Andersen's first two years, but naming juco transfer Jake Luton as his starter compared to Marcus McMaryion (started last six games for Oregon State in 2016), might hinder the Beavers growth early on. McMaryion has since transferred to try and get playing time elsewhere, so it's all on Luton's shoulders here, and that might not be a particularly good thing. Oregon State is built this year to move the ball on the ground, and with Colorado State's gameplan that's likely to be heavy on stopping the run, if Luton shows any kind of nerves or struggles in his first Div-1 game, Colorado State could easily run away with this thing.



BetOnline.ag Best Bet #2: Rice +30.5

The nightcap on Saturday has the Rice Owls as heavy road underdogs against Stanford, in an odd scheduling quirk. See, Rice's final game a year ago was in Stanford too, losing 41-17 to the Cardinal – but covering the +34 point spread – and now they turn around and open up the 2017 season at the same venue. If there ever was a spot where a revenge angle applied between two non-conference foes with one typically being as weak as Rice has over the years, this would be it.

As bad as Rice has been for years, they did manage to go 6-3-1 ATS over their final 10 games a year go, and they get to play a Stanford team that's going through some drastic changes themselves. There is no more Christian McCaffrey doing anything and everything for the Cardinal, and he killed Rice last year. McCaffrey had 204 rushing yards and a TD on 30 carries on the ground, and 23 receiving yards on two catches and a TD through the air in last year's game vs. Rice. There's no question that Stanford has plenty of talented guys to step up and take over McCaffrey's spot, but filling his shoes at Stanford is going to be next to impossible, and it might take the Cardinal a week or two to fully grasp that the McCaffrey era is gone.

With Rice doing enough to hold their own and cover ATS despite McCaffrey's skills a year ago, I don't see how oddsmakers can give them a similar number to cover this year. In a game where controlling the ball through the running game will be the motive for both sides, time will tick away quicker than Stanford backers will want, in trying to cover a big number like this.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8700 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 26 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500 MANITOBA BRED RESTRICTED RACES NOT CONSIDERED FOR ELIGIBILITY PURPOSES).


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SHE'S A TEN 6/5

# 4 SHE BE FAST 15/1

# 3 PEAKABOO BRIDE 10/1

I favor SHE'S A TEN here. Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figures (73 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Has a solid shot for this event if you like back class. Boasts reliable speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. SHE BE FAST - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this racer a key contender. Should be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 55

Rating: 4

#1 SEEKING THE ROSE (ML=6/1)


SEEKING THE ROSE - Have to make this mare a serious competitor; she comes off a strong contest on Aug 3rd. A repeat of that recent effort on August 3rd where she registered a speed rating of 50 looks strong enough to win in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KATE'S SONG (ML=5/2), #4 SAMURAI JEAN (ML=7/2), #7 AZICHARGE (ML=4/1),

KATE'S SONG - This probable favorite ran on July 22nd and hasn't had a drill since then. SAMURAI JEAN - Run-of-the-mill speed rating last time out at Belterra Park at 1 mile. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event. AZICHARGE - Registered a substandard rating in the last race in a $6,250 Maiden Claiming race on August 11th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 SEEKING THE ROSE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

Fair Grounds - Race 4

Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double


Claiming $5,000 • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 1:51P
QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GAME ON VINCE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.
6
GAME ON VINCE
7/2

5/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hazel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 39

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 RUN AWAY B B 7/2

# 5 RED ROCK STAR 3/1

# 2 COME ON SID 6/1

I give the nod to RUN AWAY B B here. Will probably compete admirably in the early speed clash which bodes well with this field. Ran a solid last race. Look for this racer to be close up at the finish versus these ponies. RED ROCK STAR - This pony is ranked high in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. His chances to prove victorious are much better this time around facing this easier bunch. COME ON SID - This field is much easier than the last one he ran against.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Louisiana Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating: 4

#9 WRECK EM (ML=5/2)
#3 SONG CAPTAIN (ML=12/1)


WRECK EM - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +100. This thoroughbred may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. When the field turns for home, he could put these away. Just see his last speed fig, 58. That one looks good in this field. SONG CAPTAIN - Ran last out against tougher competition at Lone Star Park. The move down in the class scale should suit him well. I'm focusing on the class of this mount, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 INTERNAL STORM (ML=2/1), #4 BILLIARDS (ML=4/1), #6 SECRET POMATINI (ML=5/1),

INTERNAL STORM - This probable favorite may be out of form without any recent workouts. BILLIARDS - Hard to wager on at 4/1 odds after the last two outings. Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. SECRET POMATINI - The seventh place result in the last affair was not the greatest. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last contest which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - WRECK EM - Don't overlook this horse in your wagering. He owns the best average class figure against these horses in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #9 WRECK EM on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None