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Jeremy Plonk: Arkansas Derby Day Stakes Analysis for Oaklawn
March 28, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Arkansas Derby Day card is the biggest raceday of the year at Oaklawn Park. Triple Crown prospects historically have lined up for the Arkansas Derby and this year should be no exception. The program is bolstered by Kentucky Oaks prospects in the Fantasy Stakes as well as the Oaklawn Mile and the Matron Stakes. They’ll go Races 9-12 with rock-solid field sizes of 8x10x12x10.
Betmix stats indicate favorites are 13-for-29 this season at Oaklawn, winning 44.8% (including 6 of 11 offerings since February 24).
Race 9 // $500,000 Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile
Notable: There’s a real “Then and Now” feel to this lineup, which includes $2.2 million earner #6 Last Samurai and fellow millionaires #5 Necker Island and #8 Silver Prospector. Last Samurai won the 2022 Oaklawn Handicap, but has been away since Saratoga last summer and reappears now with a new trainer in Eddie Milligan. Necker Island is just 2 for his last 18 and both wins came at Ellis Park. Silver Prospector’s last stakes win came 22 months ago. The fresher faces may be the way to go, including rail-drawn sprinter #1 Nautical Star on the stretch-out as well as two-time OP meet allowance winner #4 Midnight Rising. Silver Prospector offers better current form among the veterans and should factor though will be challenged some by the post draw.
Race 10 // $250,000 Matron Stakes
Notable: #10 Hoosier Philly returns from a Breeders’ Cup Distaff layoff in this 6-furlong sprint in what has to be considered a season-starter. She hasn’t raced at such a short distance since her debut win at Churchill in 2022. A second X-factor is Santa Anita raider #8 Daddysruby. The Grade 1 La Brea winner has superb early speed and adds blinkers, meaning she could really cook up top here in a race that lacks a ton of other early speed. The top 3 finishers from the Feb. 24 Carousel Stakes at this same trip re-match, including #6 Zeitlos, #1 Backyard Money and #4 Mucho Macho Girl. Don’t see the order reversing from that one, trusting Zeitos right back. Hard to see this one getting past #8 Daddysruby and #6 Zeitlos.
Race 11 // $750,000 Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes
Notable: The Road to the Kentucky Oaks found some definition last week with Tarifa’s victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks. But it’s not a deep division right now, giving Fantasy players a chance to really make their mark. Grade 3 Honeybee winner #11 Lemon Muffin was a 28-1 maiden when she won last out in her sixth start. Now she gets a difficult post and you have to trust she’s a breakout performer who is blossoming while taking a much shorter price. She might be; but that’s not a great gamble. #8 West Omaha disappointed in the Honeybee and needs a big bounceback effort, but not confident she delivers it. On the same level of concern, #12 Thorpedo Anna is terribly drawn for her return and there’s no givens that 2-year-old fillies develop over the winter and bring the same or better form with them. Wait and see. That leaves 2 players for me in the Fantasy. First, #1 My Mane Squeeze moves from 1-turn races and should be effective from the rail under Flavien Prat. Second, Santa Anita invader #5 Where’s My Ring has a versatile running style and won’t meet anyone here the quality of her last rival Kinza.
Race 12 // $1.5 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby
Notable: Southwest winner #9 Mystik Dan and Rebel winner #2 Timberlake defend the local turf against west coast raider #7 Muth, the Bob Baffert-trained runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. All three bring strong credentials and surprisingly versatile running styles to adapt to most any pace flow. Mystik Dan has been the least consistent of that trio, but his top-line performance last time in the Southwest may have been the most eye-catching Kentucky Derby prep trail win this season – albeit on a wet track. You won’t see 11-1 this time, and there’s no rain in the weekend forecast for Hot Springs. So he’ll have to do it again on a dry track at a shorter price … pushing me elsewhere to gamble, though respecting his chances. The only challenge to the favored trio in my estimation is the talented closer #5 Liberal Arts. He finished with better-than-it-looks interest in the Southwest and has trained for this spot all season where the 9 furlongs will be up his alley. I’d demand at least 8-1 or more to beat all 3 of the main threats in here, but he’s the play and the key to my exactas with Muth and Timberlake.
Jon White: Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby and UAE Derby Picks
March 27, 2024 | By Jon White
We are into crunch time now, folks. There are three races this Saturday (March 30) offering 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points toward this year’s 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/4-mile classic will be contested on May 4.
The three races with Kentucky Derby points up for grabs this Saturday are the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and Group II UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse.
$1 MILLION FLORIDA DERBY
Which Fierceness are we going to see Saturday? Will it be the Fierceness who was a brilliant Saratoga debut winner and a dominant 6 1/4-length Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor? Or will it be the Fierceness who lost the Grade I Champagne Stakes by 20 1/4 lengths as a 1-2 favorite and the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths as a 1-5 favorite.
If the “good” Fierceness shows up in the Florida Derby for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, the Kentucky-bred City of Light colt will be mighty tough to beat. And Fierceness’ sharp recent a.m. rehearsals do seem to suggest there is a good chance that we are going to see the “good” Fierceness this Saturday.
And so Fierceness is my top pick in the Florida Derby, right? Nope.
Then my top choice must be the highly regarded Conquest Warrior, right? He looked terrific when he won a 1 1/8-mile allowance/optional claimer by five lengths at Gulfstream on March 1.
No, I’m not picking Conquest Warrior to win the Florida Derby, either. Personally, I’m of the opinion that he might be a tad overrated. Yes, he was a $1 million auction purchase and, yes, has a Hall of Fame trainer in Shug McGaughey. But I’m waiting for Conquest Warrior to go out there and post a Beyer Speed Figure higher than an 84 before I think about jumping on his bandwagon.
My choice to win the Florida Derby is Hades. He’s three for three and has already defeated Fierceness. Yet it’s Fierceness who figures to be a heavy favorite Saturday. Strong support for Fierceness makes total sense. After all, he is a champion who recorded a lofty 105 Beyer Speed Figure in the BC Juvenile. Hades? His top Beyer has been just a 90.
But I can’t help thinking Hades might be a special 3-year-old. Not only has he succeeded at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, he’s demonstrated the versatility in terms of running style to win from well off the pace or on the pace.
Because so much attention understandably was focused on Fierceness getting beat in the Holy Bull as an overwhelming favorite, I don’t think Hades received the credit he deserved for winning the race.
In the Holy Bull, Hades vied for the early lead. Turning for home, it looked like Fierceness was going to put away Hades and roll on to a victorious 2024 debut. But Hades found another gear in the lane and actually drew clear late to prevail by two lengths. Domestic Product rallied to finish second. Fierceness had to settle for third, 3 1/2 lengths behind Hades.
I especially liked the way Hades came home in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull considering it was his first start going farther than seven furlongs. I also liked his gallop-out a lot.
The quality of Hades’ performance in the Holy Bull was later validated when runner-up Domestic Product won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby on March 9.
Hades is in the very capable hands of trainer Joe Orseno. In 2000, Orseno won the Preakness Stakes with Red Bullet, who soundly defeated Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus.
You can view the 2000 Preakness on YouTube (Dave Rodman has the call): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1-DjWFcyLo
Also in 2000, Orseno trained a pair of Breeders’ Cup winners in Macho Uno and Perfect Sting. Macho Uno and Perfect String were voted an Eclipse Award in their division, while Orseno was a finalist for a 2000 Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer.
I have to admit that I certainly like what Orseno told Daily Racing Form’s David Grening this week regarding Hades and the Florida Derby.
“The way he’s training and what he’s doing for me right now, I’m going to be disappointed unless he wins because he’s just doing that well,” Orseno said.
Another reason I’m picking Hades to win the Florida Derby is the draw for post positions didn’t do Fierceness any favors. Fierceness got post 10, which has produced a very low percentage of winners in 1 1/8-mile races on Gulfstream’s main track. Hades breaks from post 2.
From the rail out, the Florida Derby field consists of Frankie’s Empire (12-1 on the morning line), Hades (7-2), Bail Us Out (15-1), Grand Mo the First (15-1), Real Macho (20-1), Le Dom Bro (15-1), Catalytic (20-1), Seminole Chief (30-1), Conquest Warrior (3-1), Fierceness (8-5) and Iris’s Dream (30-1).
Below are my Florida Derby selections:
1. Hades
2. Fierceness
3. Conquest Warrior
4. Bail Us Out
$1.5 MILLION ARKANSAS DERBY
As reflected by the morning line, there is a “big three” in the Arkansas Derby. They are Muth at 8-5, Timberlake at 9-5 and Mystik Dan at 5-2. Everyone else in the field of 11 is 15-1 or higher.
I’m going with Mystik Dan as my top pick. Kenny McPeek trains the Kentucky-bred Goldencents colt.
In his most recent appearance under silks, Mystik Dan rallied from sixth to win Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes by a large margin on Feb. 3. In front by only a half-length a furlong from home, Mystik Dan then ran up the score to reach the finish eight lengths in front.
Mystik Dan’s Southwest not only was visually impressive, it was praiseworthy from a speed-figure standpoint. He received a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. That’s the highest Beyer achieved by any of the Arkansas Derby entrants.
Was Mystik Dan’s sterling Southwest effort due to the muddy track? Perhaps. But he did get a 96 Beyer on dry land when a 7 3/4-length maiden winner going 5 1/2 furlongs at Churchill last Nov. 12. That indicates to me that Mystik Dan can win the Arkansas Derby if the track isn’t wet.
Muth, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, comes off a 2 1/2-length win in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 6. The Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt finished second in the BC Juvenile, outrunning Timberlake on that occasion.
Timberlake became rank early in BC Juvenile and ended up fourth. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt kicked off his 2024 campaign by winning Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes by two lengths on Feb. 24 for trainer Brad Cox.
Watch out for Liberal Arts. If there is an upset, it could be him. The Kentucky-bred Arrogate colt, trained by Robert Medina, ran third in the Southwest.
From the rail out, the Arkansas Derby lineup is comprised of Will Take It (50-1), Timberlake (9-5), Dimatic (20-1), Time for Truth (20-1), Liberal Arts (15-1), Informed Patriot (30-1), Muth (8-5), Just Steel (15-1), Mystik Dan (5-2) and Imperial Gun (30-1).
Below are my Arkansas Derby selections:
1. Mystik Dan
2. Muth
3. Timberlake
4. Liberal Arts
$1 MILLION UAE DERBY
At this time next week I might still be wiping egg off my face. Or maybe it will turn out that I was right to have a high opinion of Forever Young. It all depends on what Forever Young does this Saturday in the Group II UAE Derby.
As I recently wrote for Xpressbet.com, a friend of mine emailed me to pass along his thoughts of Forever Young after seeing the Japanese star at the top of my Kentucky Derby rankings. My friend, by the way, really knows his stuff. And his email to me did not pull any punches.
“Forever Young? Are you drinking?” the email said. “You won’t find him with a search warrant in the Kentucky Derby. He has no chance. Saudi Derby knocked him out.”
Actually, if Forever Young doesn’t win the UAE Derby, or at the very least finish second, you won’t even be seeing him in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. Unless he runs first or second Saturday, he won’t have enough points to participate in the Run for the Roses. For Forever Young, a lot is on the line in the UAE Derby.
Many were unimpressed with his come-from-off-the-pace nose win in the Group III Saudi Derby, a one-mile event around one turn. Many bash him for running on his left lead all the way down the stretch. Others denigrate him for winning by only a head. Still others knock him for barely beating Book’em Danno, who was coming off a win in an ungraded stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs.
As a one-turn race at about one mile, the Saudi Derby is “as much a sprint as a route, and Forever Young struggled to adapt,” Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote in his recap of the race. “Breaking poorly under Ryusei Sakai, Forever Young had to be ridden vigorously down the backstretch while kept toward the center of the track to avoid kickback…Forever Young spun his wheels and lost momentum into the homestretch, where he failed to ever change leads. With 300 meters remaining he began closing the gap, and with a furlong left to run, Book’em Danno wearing down, Forever Young began making serious progress. One final surge and Forever Young collared Book’em Danno, a tough beat for trainer Derek Ryan and Book’em Danno’s New Jersey owners, but a win under the most challenging circumstances Forever Young has faced.
“Book’em Danno, who looks like a very good sprinter-miler, might have hit the far end of his stamina range in the one-turn Saudi Derby, while Forever Young was just getting warmed up at the trip,” Hersh added. “Forever Young, always out of rhythm in [the Saudi Derby], ought to better suit the [about] 1 3/16-mile race in Dubai.”
It is true that Forever Young won the Saudi Derby by only a small margin. But I believe he deserved kudos for coming away with a victory despite racing in a country other than Japan for the first time, despite competing in a race around one turn for the first time, despite a tardy beginning and despite a wide journey.
Additionally, Forever Young’s final time of 1:36.17 for 1,600 meters obliterated the track record. The old mark had been 1:37.91 set by Full Flat in the inaugural Saudi Derby in 2020.
Forever Young’s 1:36 flat clocking in fifths was about nine lengths faster than Full Flat’s 1:37 4/5.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote that Forever Young ran “basically as fast” as older stars Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesora did when they finished one-two on that same card in the Saudi Cup.
Keep in mind that Japan’s Derma Sotogake finished third in last year’s Saudi Derby, which he lost by 2 3/4 lengths. He then won the UAE Derby in by an emphatic 5 1/2 lengths.
Based on the final time of the 2023 Saudi Derby compared to this year, Derma Sotogake would have finished about 17 lengths -- that’s right, about 17 lengths! -- behind Forever Young in this year’s Saudi Derby.
I also think it’s to Forever Young’s credit that his Saudi Derby performance stacks up quite well vs. other leading 3-year-olds from a Thoro-Graph perspective.
While I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
The best Thoro-Graph number among the 23 individual horses in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager on March 17 is Fierceness’ minus 1 1/2 for his Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile tour de force at 1 1/16 miles last Nov. 2 at Santa Anita.
The second-best Thoro-Graph number is the 1/4 recorded by Mystik Dan when he romped to an eight-length win in the Grade III Southwest Stakes, which was run Feb. 3 on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park.
The third-best is Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph number of 1 for his narrow victory in the Saudi Derby at one mile.
Forever Young is expected to be a strong UAE Derby favorite in international betting markets.
Below are my UAE Derby selections:
1. Forever Young
2. Henry Adams
3. Pandagate
4. Mendelssohn Bay
Henry Adams, trained by the great Aidan O’Brien, finished fourth in a Group I race in Great Britain last year won by the exciting City of Troy.
Pandagate represents the U.S. following a 5 1/2-length win in Aqueduct’s Gander Stakes for New York-breds on Feb. 25. Christophe Clemente trains the ridgling by Arrogate, who ran a phenomenal race after a botched start to win the lucrative Dubai World Cup in 2017.
Bhupat Seemar trains Mendelssohn Bay, who goes into the UAE Derby off a 3 3/4-length win in the Group III UAE Two Thousand Guineas on Jan. 26. This colt is trying to follow in the footsteps of his sire, Mendelssohn, who is remembered for his scintillating 18 1/2-length win in the 2018 UAE Derby.
THIS WEEK’S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
Catching Freedom makes his way onto my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week in the wake of his Louisiana Derby triumph. He is No. 8.
Exiting my Top 10 this week is Track Phantom, who finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby.
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:
1. Forever Young
2. Sierra Leone
3. Dornoch
4. Fierceness
5. Timberlake
6. Hades
7. Mystik Dan
8. Catching Freedom
9. Deterministic
10. Just a Touch
DERBY STRIKES UPDATE
I came up with my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
It’s not until a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes.
Trainer Chad Brown said after Domestic Product’s Tampa Bay Derby victory that the plan was to race him once more before the Kentucky Derby. Brown now has indicated Domestic Product might not start again before the first Saturday in May. I will wait until that becomes concrete before calculating Domestic Product’s strikes.
I have ascertained the number of strikes for Louisiana Derby 1-2-4 finishers Catching Freedom, Honor Marie and Track Phantom. I’ve also determined the strikes for Jeff Ruby runner-up West Saratoga, Tampa Bay Derby runner-up No More Time and Japan’s T O Password.
--Catching Freedom (1 strike) Category 3. While he only has a single strike, this particular strike troubles me with regard to Catching Freedom. I consider Category 3 to be very important. This category points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. That’s because 56 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run.
--Honor Marie (1 strike) Category 3. Like Catching Freedom, Honor Marie’s lone strike comes in this key category. And like Catching Freedom, this concerns me as far as Honor Marie being too far back a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.
While on the subject of Category 3, Sierra Leone, the 7-1 favorite in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager on March 17, was fourth with a furlong left to run when he won the Risen Star on Feb. 17. That means Sierra Leone needs to be first or second a furlong out when he makes his next start in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes on April 6 in order to avoid getting a strike in Category 3, like Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
--Track Phantom (1 strike) Category 4. He gets a strike in this category because he finished second in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes and fourth in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby after being in front a furlong out in both races. This does make it seem that the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby probably will not be his cup of tea.
--West Saratoga (1 strike) Category 4. His only strike stems from the fact that he finished third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes after being second with a furlong to go.
--No More Time (2 strikes). One strike comes in Category 4 because he did not improve or at least hold his position in the final furlong in both of his final two starts before the Kentucky Derby. In the Tampa Bay Derby, No More Time had the lead a furlong from home before finishing second. The other strike for No More Time comes in Category 5. He gets a strike in this category because he has not finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race.
--T O Password (3 strikes). It was announced this week that he will be sent to the Kentucky Derby. He has just two races under his belt. T O Password won by two lengths when unveiled in a race at about 1 1/8 miles in Japan on Jan. 6, defeating 15 foes. He then won the Fukuryu Stakes at the same distance in Japan on March 23, this time defeating 10 opponents. He gets a strike in Category 1 for not having run in a graded race before March 31, another strike in Category 2 for not having won a graded race, plus a strike in Category 7 for not having raced as a 2-year-old.
T O Password will be attempting to become only the second horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby in his or her third career start.
According to the Kentucky Derby media guide, Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form, with the help of Keeneland Library’s Becky Ryder, determined that 1883 Derby winner Leonatus is the only Kentucky Derby winner with just two prior lifetime starts.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes. Nevertheless, despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
One of Mage’s strikes was because he had not won a graded stakes race. Another of Mage’s strikes was for getting passed in the final furlong of the Florida Derby. Mage’s third strike was for not having raced as a 2-year-old.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Mage became the first Kentucky Derby winner with three strikes.
Mine That Bird in 2009 had four strikes (Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8).
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
As mentioned earlier, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. Again, this is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Senor Buscador has now held the top spot in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for five consecutive weeks since winning the world’s richest race, the $20 million Saudi Cup, on Feb. 24.
This Saturday, the good senor will attempt to further pad his bankroll when he starts in the $12 million Dubai World Cup for trainer Todd Fincher.
Also representing the U.S. in the Dubai World Cup is Grade I Santa Anita Handicap winner Newgate, who is No. 4 in the NTRA poll.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 303 Senor Buscador (25)
2. 224 National Treasure (3)
3. 220 Saudi Crown
4. 168 Newgate
5. 164 Idiomatic (2)
6. 145 White Abarrio
7. 74 Warm Heart
8. 58 First Mission
9. 51 I’m Very Busy
10. 41 Speed Boat Beach
Though they did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron and Auguste Rodin each received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Catching Freedom cracks the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll following his Louisiana Derby victory. He is No. 5.
No. 2 Timberlake, No. 6 Muth and No. 8 Mystik Dan are entered in the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
No. 7 Fierceness and No. 9 Hades are entered in the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 274 Sierra Leone (12)
2. 221 Timberlake (1)
3. 200 Nysos (14)
4. 196 Dornoch (1)
5. 195 Catching Freedom (2)
6. 106 Muth
7. 84 Fierceness
8. 76 Mystik Dan
9. 70 Hades
10. 57 Deterministic
Though they did not make the Top 10, Endlessly and Imagination each received one first-place vote.
Imagination won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 3. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt is a candidate for the Grade I, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 6.
Endlessly took last Saturday’s Grade III Jeff Ruby by four widening lengths on synthetic footing at Turfway Park. The Kentucky-bred Oscar Performance colt is headed to Churchill Downs’ Grade II, $600,000 American Turf on May 4 instead of the Kentucky Derby, according to trainer Michael McCarthy.
Race of the Week: Gulfstream Park Oaks | Saturday, March 30, 2024
March 27, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park this Saturday is loaded with stakes intrigue throughout the major divisions in racing. Triple Crown hopefuls battle in the main event, while Kentucky Oaks prospects are in action in Race 11, the Gulfstream Park Oaks. This 1-1/16 miles test will be part of the $25,000 Exacta-Thon for 1/ST BET and Xpressbet players throughout the 12-race program.
Field Depth:
FIONA'S MAGIC is a Grade 2 winner with the field's signature victory. WAYS AND MEANS is Grade 1-placed, while INTO CHAMPAGNE and SCALABLE are Grade-placed. There's no major class edge among these though SCALABLE has kept the strongest company lines over the longest time.
Pace:
FIONA'S MAGIC and DO GOODER should provide the pace here with INTO CHAMPAGNE and GUN SONG close up in the early mix. The pace should be above average to fast, though 1-1/16 miles races here often favor speed with a short run into the clubhouse turn and the 1/16th-pole finish line in play when they straighten for home.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-POWER SQUEEZE: A winner in both bids around 2 turns in addition to Gulfstream's 1-turn mile Cash Run Stakes, the field's hottest filly carries a 3-race winning streak. Trainer Jorge Delgado and Tampa-based jockey Daniel Centeno are 7-16 in tandem for 44% wins. Favorable draw and lots to like from a mid-pack trip.
#2-DO GOODER: Inside speedster will get every advantage in this track configuration while stretching out around 2 turns for the first time. Last year's Belmont Stakes-winning connections of Jena Antonucci and Javier Castellano team up. Bottom of the pedigree leans shorter, so we'll see how far she'll go and how much pace pressure Fiona's Magic applies.
#3-NEOM CITY: Stakes debut for filly who has sprinted in all 4 career starts with a lone victory December 2 at Gulfstream. Beaten 15-1/4 lengths in her only outing of 2024 and removes Lasix. Returns to jockey Joe Bravo, who piloted her to her only victory in his only time aboard previously.
#4-WAYS AND MEANS: Smashing Saratoga debut winner for Chad Brown, who also trained sire Practical Joke and dam Strong Incentive. She's half-sister to Brown-trained Blue Grass runner-up Highly Motivated. She hasn't been seen since wrapping up the Spa meet with a narrow runner-up as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade 1 Spinaway. This will be her first bid around 2 turns and she enters off a bullet workout at Payson Park.
#5-INTO CHAMPAGNE: Half-length runner-up to Oaks rival Fiona's Magic last out in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. Won the first 2 starts of her career, including the Glitter Woman Stakes, and stretches out around 2 turns for the first time. Broke outward in each of her last 2 starts, and a repeat of that could impact the early speed of likely pace player Gun Song next door. Trainer Ian Wilkes seems some refuge after a long, unsuccessful Championship Meet.
#6-GUN SONG: Eye-catching allowance winner February 9 by nearly 6 lengths in a 1-turn mile. Trainer Mark Hennig has one blossoming as expected for a $400,000 daughter of Gun Runner. While the sire screams distance, dam Nicole H was a top-class sprinter, so this will test her stamina while obviously talented.
#7-AMERICA'S VOW: Tampa Bay Downs-based filly has won 1 of 6 starts, but has a quartet of 2-turn races in succession for this and will not lack fitness. It's the first local bid for the daughter of Florida Derby winner Constitution, though she could have a pedigree to play at GP.
#8-FIONA'S MAGIC: Florida-bred has been an open-company dynamo, winning 3 and finishing second twice in 5 starts. Her game, front-running victory in the 1-mile Davona Dale at 5-1 odds likely will cause a price reduction Saturday. With regular pilot Tyler Gaffalione off to ride at Oaklawn on Saturday, Jorge Ruiz gets the mount.
#9-SCALABLE: Trainer Todd Pletcher tries to bounce back with the Forward Gal Stakes beaten 9-5 favorite with a return around 2 turns for the first time since her fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Late-running daughter of champion sprinter Speightstown had shown promise routing in the Chandelier at Santa Anita last fall. Opinion here is she's better around 2 turns. Wide draw means she likely drops farther back early to avoid ground loss and then try to make up the difference over the final half-mile.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
With a hot pace, expect SCALABLE to make a run and be the most likely to land in the superfecta, though her win chances are compromised by this track set-up.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
POWER SQUEZE likely will be overlooked based on connections and the fact that she was 8-1 when she won in the Cash Run against a softer field. But she should get a great trip and rates a major chance.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win POWER SQUEEZE. $10 exacta key-box POWER SQUEEZE with WAYS AND MEANS and GUN SONG ($40).
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - 3/30/24 - Gulfstream Park
March 30, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Gulfstream Park – Saturday, March 30, 2024
RACE 1
3-THE JIG IS UP (IRE)
Degree of confidence: B-
• Breezed well, then sold for $400,000 at the 2023 OBS March sale.
• Barn doesn’t win many with first timers, but work tab is healthy.
• Known element doesn’t impress, so let’s try a fresh face at 6-1.
Others to consider: 5-Grog.
RACE 2
5-FLY THE W
Degree of confidence: B
• Tapeta specialist (12 wins) just missed as the favorite vs. similar.
• Consistently strong speed figures; employs an ideal stalking style.
• Rarely misses a beat; rested for five weeks, should fire a big shot.
Others to consider: 3-Spirit Animal.
RACE 3
8-SET
Degree of confidence: B+
• Demolished maidens at first asking over this course and distance.
• Won as the controlling speed; likely to face more early heat today.
• Earned a huge speed figure in victory like a very bright prospect.
Others to consider: 4-Tok Tok.
RACE 4
1-ROTTERDAM
Degree of confidence: C+
• Lightly raced with room to improve and will benefit from inside draw.
• Never worse than second in five starts; just earned career top figure.
• Concern: way since early February and has been scratched twice since.
Others to consider: 5-Just a Photo; 7-Meyer; 8-Fredo; 12-Sir London.
RACE 5
10-IDONEO
Degree of confidence: B-
• Debuting son of Uncle Mo shows three straight bullet workouts.
• Homebred Godolphin sophomore colt lands a cozy outside post.
• All of the previous runners in this field show lower than par figs.
Others to consider: 6-Mindframe; 9-One Sharp Cookie; 7-Ponce de Leon.
RACE 6
2-KERTEZ (GB)
Degree of confidence: B+
• Multiple group stakes placed; makes his U.S. debut for C. Clement.
• Earned European Timeform ratings that make him a fit with these.
• First or second in six of seven starts at this marathon 12-furlong tip.
Others to consider: 6-Tawny Port; 8-Starting Over.
RACE 7
5-TUMBARUMBA
Degree of confidence: B+
• Nosed out in Gulfstream Mile but equaled his career top figure.
• Effective around two turns and projects to employ pressing tactics.
• Always genuine and consistent; first or second in eight of 13 starts.
Others to consider: 6-Steal Sunshine.
RACE 8
7-OZARA (IRE)
Degree of confidence: B
• Was too close to a hot pace and paid for it when missing as the chalk.
• Switches to J. Rosario and is likely to receive the patient ride she needs.
• Two time stakes winner over the local lawn seems set to make amends.
Others to consider: 9-Pharoah’s Wine.
RACE 9
6-OSCAR ECLIPSE
Degree of confidence: B+
• Launches a comeback showing two recent bullet works to have him ready.
• Was fast on figures last summer and could easily be a better type now.
• Has the perfect stalking/pressing style for this elongated sprint distance.
Others to consider: 3-Long Range Toddy.
RACE 10
1-LA MEHANA (FR)
Degree of confidence: B+
• Quality mare from France was Group-1 placed before arriving stateside.
• Trained well for her U.S. debut and should be fit enough for a top effort.
• Lands the rail, has excellent tactical speed; will be prominent throughout.
Others to consider: 4-Surprisingly; 6-McKulick.
RACE 11
4-WAYS AND MEANS
Degree of confidence: A-
• Displayed immense talent in two starts last year; ready to resume her career.
• Can fire fresh (won her debut by 13 lengths); has trained like she is fit and ready.
• Pedigree suggests two turns should be within her range; barn 24% with layoffs.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 12
8-MARKETSEGMENTATION
Degree of confidence: A-
• Away since last summer but shows a healthy series of Payson Park works.
• Can fire fresh (won her debut) and is a perfect 2-for-2 over the local lawn.
• Powerful numbers last year; Grade-1 winner should outclass her rivals.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 13
5-NEVER SURPRISED
Degree of confidence: B
• Lightly raced 6-year-old has finished first or second in 10 of 11 career races.
• Returned off a 15 month layoff to miss by a nose in a strong allowance race.
• Multiple stakes winner faces tougher but is likely to produce a forward move.
Others to consider: 3-Ice Chocolat (BRZ); 4-Big Everest.
RACE 14
10-FIERCENESS
Degree of confidence: B+
• Never know what you’re going to get but his best effort handles this field.
• Sparkling recent workouts; projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking journey.
• Conquest Warrior is a colt with extreme potential and is the one to fear most.
Others to consider: 9-Conquest Warrior.
Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Pick 5 Analysis
March 30, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card, the highlight of the night is the $1.00 Pick 5 that starts in Race 6 and has a $5,837 carryover. The sequence has an estimated pool of $40,000, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 6 (7:50 PM EST)
3-Rockin Bambi (5-1)-Lands in a good spot to post a win in the 3rd start off the bench. Likes to take pictures and did so in 8 of 21 races in 2023. Has won against tougher with this pilot, and Elliott Deaton could work a smooth trip and be the best down the lane.
6-The Gypsy Queen IR (7-1)-Should be competitive at this level and is probably best when racing near the lead. Not sure Keith Kash can work the right trip from this post. But can dance with this kind and should offer a big price.
7-Sunburnt (4-1)-Needs a big try leaving from the 7-hole against this kind. But there are no standouts in this filed and Ronnie Wrenn can keep this mare in play.
Race 7 (8:12 PM EST)
2-How About Murph (6-1)-Has won 2 of the past 3 starts and the last picture was versus this kind. Luke Hanners will likely leave and look to get on the point. Beat 4 of these last week and will respect chances of doubling up.
4-Brooklets Desire (8/5)-Won a pair at this class in February and has the gate speed to get the top but doesn't need to lead from start to finish to record a victory. Looks like a main player and should be racing close to the one above early in the mile.
Race 8 (8:34 PM EST)
1-Woodmere Jade (9-1)-Could offer a big return and should not blush at the competition. Justine Irvine could have this mare on the lead or close to it turning for the wire.
4-Sanastic Cruiser (8/5)-Has won 6 of 21 at Nfld and comes off a win with an efficient trip. Will use but not liking the price. Probably needs a ground saving journey to win but best to not overlook.
Race 9 (8:56 PM EST)
4-Coffee N' Donats (3/2)-Has been trying hard the last 2 starts but both were on a wet surface and is only 1 for 10 when the track is off. Wrenn comes back for his 2nd straight drive. Starts in a couple of slots and that could help. Should be in the hunt if minds manners.
5-Luxury Living (7/2)-The first concern is staying on stride, if stays flat could win in a couple of different ways. Can grind it out or could leave for a close-up seat and look to take control around the half pole. This mare has won 5 of 31 at Nfld and could be right there at the wire.
Race 10 (9:18 PM EST)
1-L For Love (5/2)-There's not a lot of form to chew on, and ended up landing on the 2 inside horses that will probably be bet. Elson Miller should protect the rail and at least get a pocket ride. Looks like a trip-out possibility.
2-Giovana By The Sea (3/2)-Hasn't seen real action since 8-26 but did put in a decent qualifier at Nfld on 3-21. Can be a solid player if dialed on high in the first start off the bench.
$1.00 Pick 5
3,6,7/2,4/1,4/4,5/1,2
Total Bet=$48
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Turfway Park - Race #5
Turfway Park - Race #6
Picks Notes #1 Blast Furnace He's back off the bench with what feels like a forward worktab, and they thought enough of him off the debut run to give that Gulfstream turf stakes spot a try. The winner that day went on to finish fourth as the 2.40/1 chalk in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, and this guy went right to the bench after a follow-up dud on the Saratoga dirt. Guessing he's live. #7 Rocky Joy Considered him on top in a spot after chasing the pace and settling for a superfecta spot behind some of these last out. Small step forward might do it for a barn that has been connecting in similar spots all season. #9 Schnittker He's likely to get some love on the board while going first out for a tough team, but they've been a bit light this season with this kind according to Betmix Angler stats. Get a look at him, but I'm inclined to try to beat him. Race Summary This is a race where I'd want to see them all on the track ahead of the race -- I have some interest in debuting #12 Tapit For the Win, but Blast Furnace checks a lot of boxes for me at what might be a midrange price.
Turfway Park - Race #8
Picks Notes #8 Nice as Pie She won't be any kind of price in here, but she should get a fair enough pace to give her every chance to run late, and there is really nothing bad you can say about her local form through three easy wins this season including a stakes tally last out. #7 Gold Del Mar Wonder if she's got a little appeal at a price while rising in a big way off the graduation run at the $50,000 level, as there are a couple races on her page in which she chased the pace and passed some horses late, and a similar kind of run might give her a chance for a share if the early runners come back. #3 Sweet Gal Of Mine She steps up to try winners in a tough spot today, but she might be the best of those carrying the torch early. Wouldn't be a total shock if she scooted clear off the turn. Race Summary Nice as Pie is pretty tough to get past in here with a couple forward players likely to at least set a fair tempo, and her turn of foot and finishing ability over the local footing has been remarkable.
Picks Notes #7 Beautiful Summer Not sure she's quite up to it, but the price might be appealing enough to give her a look. She brings pretty honest Mahoning form with her to this, and she has a little bit of prompting pace to get in the mix early in a spot without a ton of reliable forward players. Maybe. #2 She's Always Rosie She was better in that second start when still only offering up an even effort, but the class drop might make a similar try a bit more impactful today. Capable. #9 Caladium Finisher has been competitive with similar sellers, but I wouldn't want to be here at too short a price. Obvious player -- and not a bad place to land if you don't have strong feelings elsewhere in a bad race. Race Summary Would probably want #12 Sharper Gal and #8 Morning Miracle on the deeper tickets, but I think there's a chance Beautiful Summer flashes a little pace and hangs around today at a price. Was tempted to land on Caladium....
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #1
Laurel Park - Race #2
Picks Notes #4 VIROLOGIST (4-1) Can make good use of her speed at a good price on return to Laurel Park. #7 TOOSHAY (9-5) Threw in clinker at Aqueduct after three runner-up finishes in prior four starts. #3 PRUGOVA (7-5) Set pace in-hand, dug in when collared, gave way in final sixteenth. Race Summary VIROLOGIST made a ‘quick move’ at the quarter pole but settled for third behind a well-bet first-time starter and 2-to-1 favorite in a 6F sprint at Penn National. She could be the target today in her third start of a cycle. Bet to win and place.
Laurel Park - Race #4
Picks Notes #5 CANDY ARCADE (5-1) Vied between rivals to top of stretch, gave way in shorter sprint for new barn. #4 CATCH THE KITTEN (7-2) Stalked and ‘loomed’ after five weeks away, just missed at 7F two back. #8 KAYA’S HALO (5-2) Magee claim at Turfway Park ‘checked hard’ in mid-stretch, losing all chance. Race Summary CANDY ARCADE battled inside the winning favorite on the turn but faded in mid-stretch in her first start off the claim at the same level. She changes riders again, stretches out to 7F and should sit an ideal trip in a speed-laden field. Play a 2, 4 over 2, 4, 5, 8 exacta.
Picks Notes #4 UTTERLY ENCHANTING (7-2) Re-awakened on class drop, steps up off claim for hot barn. #7 GOLDEN EIB MICRPHN (9-2) Backed off duel with fave, hard ridden, surged late for second. #2 THROWBACK (12-1) Seeks third straight wire-to-wire victory to begin 4yo season. Race Summary UTTERLY ENCHANTING, 4-wide early, took over at the top of the stretch and regained her winning confidence in her second start this year. She has plenty of good back numbers to summon and can handle the class hike off the claim. Bet to win and place.
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