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    Joe Gavazzi’s POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS

    2017 NFL-X Week #3 & College FB Week #1

    Next Wednesday, we begin the Pointspread Prognosis for the 2017 Regular Season. It will feature 14 CFB “Name Games” and 6 NFL “Name Games”. You should go to JoeGavazziSports.com and click yellow tab “Pointspread Prognosis” to read all about them. Remember that the CFB “Name Games” are 202-135 ATS the last two seasons.
    This week, I give analysis on all 4 CFB games for Week #1 along with a handful of NFL games for NFL-X 3. As always my preferred side is underlined in the heading.

    College Football Week #1
    Saturday, August 26thOregon State at Colorado State (-3-) 2:30 PM ET CBSCCFB is a big deal this Fall in Fort Collins. The joint is hopping at the Main Line Ale House as the students return for Fall classes. Part of the excitement is that the Rams open Colorado State Stadium today, the long awaited on campus site. Traveling to former home, Hughes Stadium, 4 miles away at the base of the Eastern front (near Horse Tooth Reservoir and State Park) had become a major inconvenience. But that is just part of the reason for excitement. By the end of last season’s 7-6 SU, 9-3 ATS campaign, Colorado State whipped New Mexico, followed by a win AT SAN DIEGO STATE, the perennial league leader who had won 18 straight MWC games. Apparently, Col State was still celebrating when they lost their Bowl game to Sun Belt rep Idaho. Though the Rams averaged 52 PPG in their final 4 games of the season, THEY GAVE UP 43 PPG in the process. In 2017, much is expected of the Rams who return 14 starters and are picked by many at the top of their Division. Leading the way on offense is returning QB Stevens who will be aided by the return of his top 2 receivers and top 3 RB’s. DC English will have his hands full, however, with the 8 returning Defensive starters who were torched at the end of last season. Though it appears to be “all systems go” for the Rams this season, their opener vs. PAC 12 rep, Oregon State, will present a much different challenge.
    True enough, the Beavers will need to adjust to the Mile High altitude of Fort Collins. But their PAC 12 pedigree will hold them in good stead. Note that PAC 12 teams are 49-17 SU vs. MWC foes this decade. This Ram program has been particularly susceptible to that league losing 11/14 recent meetings to their big western brother. 2 of those 3 wins were against rival Colorado. AND GUESS WHO THEY PLAY JUST 6 DAYS HENCE! Yes, a PAC 12 Colorado team who whipped them 44-7 to begin the 2016 campaign. Our specific edges using this PAC 12 team is the overland edge. Those who have followed the Pointspread Prognosis in recent years know my love of CFB teams who dominate overland. The Beavers are now in the 3rd year under HC Anderson. He made his mark at Utah State in Wisconsin with a ground and pound offense. This year, the Beavers return 15 starters from a program who has won 2 and 4 games respectively the last two seasons. Many teams hit their peak in the third year of a coaching regime. I expect just such to be the case with Oregon State this year. Anderson has 3 experienced signal callers on the team but it is jumbo JUCO QB Luten who will get the starting nod on Saturday. Behind 3 OL starters, expect Oregon State to build on a ground game that averaged 193/5.2 LY. The lead back, Ryan Nall, known as the Wrecking Nall, will be just 1 of 3 experienced runners who will be battering the Rams defensive front which has allowed greater than 200 RYPG on greater than 4.8 YPR each of the last 3 seasons. Along with the vastly improved defense, this is a very live PAC 12 underdog.
    Hawaii at U Massachusetts (-2) 6:00 PM ETTime change to 6:00 PM ET, a major edge for Hawaii who gets to play the game at noon eastern body time (as opposed to 6:00 AM were it a noon eastern start). These two matched up in the final game of the season for U. Mass. who lost 46-40 on the Island in an evenly contested game. That defeat closed out a 2-10 SU campaign making the 4 year record for the Minutemen 9-39 SU. Now they are a favorite? Please note this is the same team who was outrushed 193/4.7 to 99/3.2 LY. Their lack of experience on the OL following last year’s debacle bodes poorly again for this season. New DC Pinkum (Western Michigan L4Y) is entrusted with improving a D that allowed 35 PPG and was #120 in PED last season. Yes, there is experience but it is all bad.
    Despite the 6,000 miles of travel, far prefer the Rainbow Warriors who figure to make great strides in the 2nd year under HC Rolovich. Under his 1st year tutelage, the Rainbows went from 8-30 SU the previous 3 seasons to 7-7 LY topping it off with a 3-0 SU finish to the season including a 52-35 win vs. Mid-Tenn in the bowl game. That extra practice time is another major edge for the visitor. This season, 8 starters return on offense led by QB Brown under the guidance of OC Smith. With an experienced OL and the return of RB Saint Juste, look for Hawaii to build on their 28/391 offense of last season. Blending elements of the Pistol, Red Gun, and Run and Shoot, the Hawaii offense will be tough to stop for U. Mass. Any issues for Hawaii will be with the 6 returning defensive starters under their 5th different DC in 5 years. In what could well be a similar shoot out to last year’s 46-40 Hawaii win, we will side with the better team as underdog.
    South Florida (-22) at San Jose 7:30 PM ET CBSC 1st year USF HC Charlie Strong has stepped into a ready-made situation at USF. Not many coaches are that lucky after spending 3 seasons at a prime job like Texas where he went 16-21 SU. This year, Strong inherits the 11-2 SU Bulls with 16 RS led on offense by QB Flowers. Look for that unit to be explosive once again. Despite the departure of RB Mack, they look to exceed the 44/511 offense of last season. New DC Jean-Mary is entrusted by Strong (best known as a defensive coach) with 9 starters who allowed 32/482 LY. Though 4 starters return on the DL and it is an experienced secondary. Not sure I am ready to trust them 3,000 miles from home with a new coach and new schemes.
    Not that the Spartans have much to offer. Former HC Caragher is gone after a 4 year mark of 19-30 SU and a season where Little Sparty was outscored on average 35-24. In his place is new HC Brennan, a former WR coach at Oregon State and former UCLA WR. With that offensive experience as a backdrop and the hire of new OC Sowder, look for Little Sparty to try to light up the scoreboard this season. Sowder is a disciple of Dino Babers, the current Syracuse mentor who, prior to that stop, led a Bowling Green offense to 42 PPG in 2015. Yes, it is flying footballs in the South Bay. With all 5 starters returning the OL, improvement could come quickly. Though San Jose was torched for 247/5.5 overland LY, must note that new DC Odem (from Oregon State with Brennan) does inherit a Top 20 pass defense. All of the above factors could well keep this game under the number in a contest that features a 1st year HC, a poor defensive team from LY, and 3,000 miles of travel.
    Rice vs. Stanford (-31) 10:00 PM ET ESPN Sydney, AustraliaRice played their final game of the season last year at Stanford. It was a 41-17 loss in which they were outgained 534-291. After going 18-9 SU in 2013-14, the Owls have regressed dramatically with 5-7 SU, 3-9 SU records the last two years under 11th year HC Bailiff, who nonetheless appears to be an excellent fit. Big areas of decline have been their defense against the run which bottomed out last year at 237/5.5. They were a “200 Club” defense who allowed 37/504. It will be up to new DC Stewart, remember him from his time with the Dallas Cowboys?, to mold 7 RS into a tougher stop unit.
    Not likely they will have success today with Stanford’s RS QB Chryst (back from torn ACL) handing the ball to a deep running back contingent who will dominate the proceedings with 4/5 OL returning. The reason why they might not cover?, because they simply have no intention of showing anything more than plain vanilla to their next opponent, USC whom they face September 9th.

    NFL-X Week #3
    Friday, August 25th
    New England (-2) at Detroit 7:00 PM ETRemember last week when we used “Houston” in their revenge motive for their 34-16 Playoff loss? Well, it worked! But mostly because the Texans were +3 net TO (dropping the Patriots to -4 net TO’s for the Preseason, worst in NFL-X). The Patriots actually outrushed (112 to 82) and outpassed (248 to 206) the Texans yet still did not claim victory. At 0-2 SU, ATS, I am well aware there will be a public play on the Patriots this week. Backing the contrary move on Detroit will be the same type of situational intangible. Many of the Detroit front office personnel has links to the team everybody loves to hate. Their interest in beating the Champs will be clearly passed on to HC Caldwell whose Lions have begun the Preseason 2-0 SU, ATS outscoring Indy and the Jets by a combined 40-16. Neither of those wins counts for much even in the Preseason. Of greater concern to our New England side is that with those 2 victories, Caldwell is now 10-4 SU in NFL-X as coach of the Big Cats. It could be an interesting battle in the 1st half with Detroit starting QB Stafford against the Pats and Tom Brady. But the Garopolo/Brissett combo get the nod in the 2nd half as does the fact that in NFL-X play any 0-2 SU road team who is priced as the better team is an over 80% ATS play if coming off a loss as favorite (-1 on Saturday) in their previous game. A public play winner with New England.
    Kansas City at Seattle (-3-) 8:00 PM ET CBSWhile public money flowed in against the Chiefs last week based on their long term failure in NFL-X play on the road in Week #2, we followed the sharp money and came away with an easy victory in a game where the Chiefs outrushed the Bengals 33/228 to 21/72. That was just 1 of 11 games where the better running team got the money. Updating the running stats for NFL-X play, we find that you would be 18-3 ATS backing any team who ran the ball 30 or more times, if their opponent did not, 17-2-1 ATS FADING any team who ran the ball 22 or fewer times in the game, if our team did not and 20-7 ATS if we outrushed our opponent by 30 or more yards in the game. Speaking of overland success, how about that of the Seahawks? In Week #1, they outrushed the Chargers, 36/133 to 22/72. Last week, they outrushed the Vikings, 34/153 to 17/71. That 2-0 SU, ATS start is nothing new for Seahawks HC Carroll who is now 30-17 SU and 31-16 ATS in NFL-X play. Meanwhile, despite the fact that the Chiefs won in Week #2 of NFL-X, HC Reed is just 14-23 SU in Preseason road play. Considering that the pointspread has only mattered twice in 33 Preseason games, that is an important factor. While many stadiums are only half filled for these meaningless Exhibitions, you can be sure that the Seahawks will be, once again, sold out for this Friday night marquee matchup against a Chiefs team who was 12-5 SU last season.

    Saturday, August 26th
    Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-6) 7:30 PM ET Few teams have been publically bashed more than these Indianapolis Colts who are off to an 0-2 SU start and looked ugly doing it. In Week #1, they were outrushed 25/96 to 18/52 vs. Detroit in a 24-10 loss. Last week, in a 24-19 loss to Dallas they were outrushed 160/32 to 15/59 to the Cowboys. Even a +2 net TO margin could not get them the cover in a game where they gave up 489 yards to a Dallas team who rarely tries in Preseason. Such ineptitude is not uncommon however, for the Colts in Preseason play as under HC Pagano, they are just 7-15 SU, 8-14 ATS. What is unusual is that the Steelers are 2-0 SU, ATS using 3rd and 4th string QBs Dobbs and Houston to get the victories. In Week #1, the Steelers gained just 226 total yards in their 20-12 win vs. the Giants. Last week, they were outgained 318 to 189 by the Falcons yet won 17-13 courtesy of a 65 yard punt return. Those 2 victories improved the record of Pittsburgh HC Tomlin to 8-15 SU, 6-17 ATS of late. This week, the public will be all over Pittsburgh as Big Ben returns to action and possibly 2nd string veteran QB Jones. Meanwhile, it would not be surprising if Indy QB Luck was again unable to make post because of his injured shoulder. I will check status and the game day line prior to deciding whether to use this as the most contrary selection of the week.
    Green Bay at Denver (-3) 9:00 PM ET
    This is the 2-0 SU, ATS Packers vs. the 2-0 SU, ATS Broncos in the Saturday night Marquee matchup. In Week #1, the Broncos beat the Bears despite being outrushed 36/173 to 26/106. Credit a +2 net TO margin for the victory. Last week, though the Broncos held a dominant edge at the point of attack, there can be little doubt that the +5 net TO margin was the major reason for their 33-14 victory vs. the Niners. That is now +7 net TO’s for the NFL-X Season, a number that begs for correction. Despite that contrary look, I was still ready to consider the Broncos this evening based on their starting QB battle between Siemian and Paxton Lynch. Now that the pressure is off, with Siemian claiming the #1 spot, there will surely be less intensity in the competition. Enter the Green Bay Packers who thus will have a dominant edge at the signal callers spot with QB Rogers seeing his 1st meaningful action backed by QB Hundley, who is without a doubt one of the most underrated backups in the NFL. Green Bay looked solid in victories over the Eagles, 24-9, and last week at Washington, 21-17, when they won the line of scrimmage 29/110 to 22/64. Looks like your Saturday Night Dog of the Day!

    Sunday, August 27th
    San Francisco at Minnesota (-4) 8:00 PM ET NBCIt’s Sunday Night Football as televised by NBC. It is also a battle of 1-1 SU, ATS teams each of whom is coming off a loss. In Week #1, the Niners beat the Chiefs 27-17 when they parlayed a +2 net TO margin with a 36/188 to 14/31 dominance at the point of attack. Apparently fat from that victory, the Niners turned in a -5 net TO performance and were dominated 34/146 to 19/37 at the point of attack by the Broncos. Now this 2-14 SU team from last season must take to the road to face a Vikings team who, under HC Zimmer, is 12-3 SU, ATS in NFL-X play. Coming off a road loss at Seattle and playing at home underneath the Sunday Night lights, all but guarantees victory in a game where the Vikings will have the clear QB edge throughout.

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    Pointwise newsletter

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    so good to see you C-Paw Thanks for everything

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    Quote Originally Posted by sportscrazy View Post
    so good to see you C-Paw Thanks for everything
    Thank you sportscrazy for joining! As you can see the rx will not even allow my email to be posted on their site fearing they might lose the majority of the people who visit the service play thread. I think people are finding me whether it's word of mouth, Google, Twitter, Facebook.

    Welcome to IWS!

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    Thanks for everything CPAW! Happy to find you here :) Cheers

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nashville1 View Post
    Thanks for everything CPAW! Happy to find you here :) Cheers
    Thank you Nashville1, welcome to IWS!

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    Joe Gavazzi POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS
    Issue #3 2017

    FAUX OR FO’REAL

    Faux or Fo’Real is the title of one of our Pointspread Prognosis games each week. But there are events happening in the
    CFB world that make us question the reality of the situation. What I am about to share with you is a group of pointspread records that are so diverse from the norm that one can only question whether they are Faux or Fo’Real! With over 50 years of pointspread history pointing to the fact that these numbers are a 50-50 proposition, it is very clear they will return to the norm. This makes the statistic I am about to present certainly of the faux variety. The question is, when do they become fo’real? Here is my best guess. These absurd numbers are occurring in the non-conference portion of the season. It will not surprise me that they continue this way for the next week or two until Conference play begins. Then again… the whole pattern may begin to reverse this week. Until then, I can only assume that this faux beginning is fo’real! Check out these mind-boggling numbers.

    49-80 ATS Record for home favorites including 28-48 ATS as -14+
    31-13 ATS Road teams as favorite to +3 (superior teams)

    With good reasons, I will continue to follow this pattern this week in the hopes that it continues.

    LEARN A NEW LANGUAGE

    Our world has become a far more global place both economically, politically and culturally. One of the ways we see this evolving is in the amount of multi-lingual people in the world. As a result, it is important to learn a new language if you are to keep pace with modern society. In an effort to do my part, I am asking you to use a new language and a new concept for the next month in the world of our CFB sports handicapping.

    The term is; AFP (away from the pointspread)
    This phrase and its accompanying acronym (AFP) are used to represent the difference in a team’s performance between the betting line and the pointspread outcome. For example; let’s say a 10 point favorite wins a game by 30 points. For that game, they would have a +20 AFP. This number can be used in referring to a specific game, a group of games (such as home or away), for the year to date, or in conjunction with another team’s AFP to provide a net differential number. The concept is used as a contrary handicapping tool with the notion that a team’s skewed performance will return to the norm – the linemaker’s original power rating for a team at the beginning of a season. The concept works best between the weeks of 3 and 7 of the regular season when one team has a negative AFP of -20 or more and their opponent has a positive AFP of +20 or more with the net difference totaling 50 or more. With your new vocabulary entrenched in your memory bank, let’s move forward to Week #3 of the CFB season.

    KEEP ON TRACKIN’

    34-14 ATS Any team who double rushed their opponent (75% ATS L16Y)
    16-6 ATS Any team who ran AND passed for 200+ yards if opponent did not (“200 Club”)
    7-1 ATS Any team who is +3 or more turnovers in the game
    28-48 ATS Home favorites of 14 or more points
    31-13 ATS Road favorites to +3 (better team)

    PREFERRED ELECTIONS ARE UNDERLINED

    Friday, September 15th

    Crusher of the Week
    Illinois at South Florida (-17-) 7:00 PM ET ESPN
    Never easy to lay double digits with a team who has allowed 38 PPG in their last 6 contests while knowing that home favorites of 14 or more points are 28-48 ATS this season. In the 2nd year under HC Smith, the Illini have settled on Crouch at QB. So what! This is an impotent offensive team that averaged only 20/315 LY and who, in this season, has scored just 24 points vs. Ball State with 216 yards and last week scored just 20 points vs. Western Kentucky gaining only 300 yards. Even against the still suspect South Florida defense, they should do little better. And although the Illini defense is the strength of their team, no one has stopped these Bulls behind QB Flowers. This team has averaged 44 PPG in their last 17 starts. Although the defense remains a continuing sieve, they have had an extra week to prepare and continue to shine in this role where they are 6-1 ATS the previous 3 years as home chalk. Lay it in what can only be termed our CFB Crusher of the Week!

    Saturday, September 16th

    Puppy of the Week
    Kentucky at South Carolina (-6) 7:30 PM ET
    Here is your first chance to use your new language. South Carolina is 2-0 SU, ATS to begin the season. In winning both games outright as underdog, they have covered the spread by 32 points. In those games, however, they were outgained by NC State, 504-246, and last week, outgained by Missouri, 423-359. Turnovers and big special teams plays have been a major part of that. Now they return to Columbia for their home opener feeling better than they should about themselves. Today’s opponent, Kentucky, is at the other end of the spectrum. Though they have begun the season a likewise 2-0 SU, they are 0-2 ATS losing to the number by a combined 25 points. Last week, they defeated Eastern Kentucky 27-16 with a “200 Club” performance. The Wildcats have defeated the Gamecocks each of the last 3 seasons by 7, 4 and 7 points. This year, they return 17 starters and are one of the Top 20 most experienced teams in the land. And today we get them as 6 point puppy? Grab the points and do not be surprised by the outright victory as we begin to reap the benefits of being multi-lingual.

    Rivalry Game of the Week
    Notre Dame (-13-) at Boston College 3:30 PM ET ESPN
    Each of these teams is 1-1 SU for the season. Each comes off a loss as a home favorite last week. But only one of these teams, Notre Dame, continues to suffer from overwhelming public support despite their recent failures. Dating to late 2015, this is a Fighting Irish team that is 5-11 SU. A Game #1 victory over a barefoot Temple team means nothing. Last week, they stepped up in class and got smacked down. Georgia outrushed the Irish 185-55 in a narrow 20-19 Georgia victory. Today, the Irish are asked to go on the road to cover a double digit impost knowing that a far more critical road game at Michigan State lies ahead next week. Classic PLAY AGAINST road favorite sandwich spot! This may not be much of a rivalry to Notre Dame. BUT IT IS A HUGE RIVALRY GAME for Boston College even more important than their game next week against defending National Champion, Clemson. Last week, Boston College lost 34-10 to Wake Forest. That was a game that was virtually even in the stat column but resulted in the rout because the Eagles were -4 in the net TO column. BC has had one of the best defenses in the Nation the last two years. Combined with the fact they are 6-1 ATS in this series (I told you it was more important to them), it will be no surprise that BC comes comfortably inside this inflated impost.

    Penthouse Pick
    UCLA (-3) at Memphis Noon ET ABC
    This selection does not come without reservations. The Bruins will be traveling cross country for a 9:00 AM ET body time start. In addition, they are looking forward to the start of the PAC 12 season next week featuring a date with Stanford. The Bruins Game #1 victory over Texas A&M, when they stormed back for a 45-44 win after trailing 44-10 late in the third, is the type of victory that can make a season. UCLA followed up the victory by trouncing Hawaii last week, 56-23. Again, QB Rosen led the offensive onslaught. He now has 9 TDP in a pair of outings. Today he gets to feast on a retooled Memphis secondary that offers a great matchup for the passing game of the Bruins. Memphis has its own quality trigger man in QB Ferguson but this team has yet to get on track for the season with their 1st game against ULM being played in a driving rain storm and their 2nd game against UCF being cancelled last week due to Irma. If the Bruins can wake up and prevent the look ahead to Stanford, this fundamental mismatch will clearly play to their favor. Get down early on this revised Noon ET start so you can begin your day in the Penthouse!

    Lone Ranger Game of the Week
    Baylor at Duke (-14) 12:30 PM ET
    Here is an opportunity for your 2nd language to provide incredible value and take you directly to the Winners Circle! As mentioned on these pages, it is going to be a pure bounce back season for Duke. After a combined record of 27-13 SU the previous 3 years, Duke slipped to 4-8 SU in 2016. The bounce back was predicted. The Game #1 romp of NC Central, 60-7, was no surprise. But the thorough trouncing of a highly regarded Northwestern team, predicted on these pages, was by greater proportions than most realize. The Blue Devils “200 Clubbed” Northwestern with a yardage margin of 538-191. After 2 games, Duke is 2-0 SU, ATS covering the number by 45 points. Many were expecting a fast fix for the Baylor Bears by highly respected 1st year HC Matt Rhule. He worked his magic at Temple. This year, despite inheriting a mess in Waco, he was expected to perform similar magic. To date, such has not been the case. Losing 48-45 to Liberty on their home field while allowing 585 yards, was the first indication. Last week, they lost 17-10 to UTSA being outgained by over 100 yards. That makes the Bears 0-2 SU, ATS with a -59 AFP. With a net AFP diff of -104, it is one of the largest Week #3 net diffs I have seen. The theory has done its magic, for Baylor is now a 14 point underdog IN A GAME WHERE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN FAVORED before the season began. Knowing that home favorites of 14 or more points are 28-48 ATS adds confidence to the selection.

    Perception/Reality Game of the Week
    Central Michigan at Syracuse (-10) 3:30 PM ET
    Last week on these pages, I predicted Mid Tenn State to win outright at this very price point against Syracuse. This week, the perception of the linemaker remains the same as he has again installed the Orange as a double digit favorite. The reality is that neither this team nor their defense deserves this level of favoritism. Maybe the misperception came from Week #1 when the Orangemen trounced C. Conn State, 50-7 with a yardage edge of 586-167. The reality of that victory is that C. Conn State is nothing more than a glorified high school football team with only 45 scholarship players. Last week, the Orange hosted MTSU and were upset 30-23 as double digit favorite when they were sacked 6 times and gained only 308 total yards. The ground game continues to struggle averaging just 3.1 YPR. Because of their affiliation with the MAC, C. Mich continues to get no respect. Remember that this is a team who won at Okla State in Week #2 last year, 30-27, (questionable outcome). Under 3rd year HC Bonamego, the Chips remain a team on the rise. Keyed by one of the Top 20 most veteran OLs in the country, they are off to a 2-0 SU start. Last weekend, they defeated Kansas 45-27 rolling up 590 yards. Don’t think that can’t happen against this Syracuse defense. Behind that solid OL, QB Morris has a 6/1 ratio and RB Ward is averaging 206/6.9. In a potential high scoring shoot out in the Carrier Dome, do not be surprised if Syracuse gets upset as a double digit favorite on consecutive weekends.

    If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It
    Purdue at Missouri (-7-) 4:00 PM ET SEC TV
    Every rule has its exception. As I have often mentioned, it is the handicapper’s conundrum to follow momentum or to play the contrarian in games such as this where Missouri has a -65 net AFP differential providing the Tigers with an extra 6 points of value in this Game #3 matchup with the visiting Boilers. Last week, Missouri deserved far better than the 31-13 home loss to South Carolina. But a -3 net TO margin more than offset the 423-359 yardage edge indicating Missouri is due for a bounce back today. Backing the Tigers, however, comes with its negatives. First of all, this game is sandwiched between SEC affairs with South Carolina and Auburn next week. Second of all, the Tigers must deal with the fact that DC Cross was fired after the Tigers gave up 74 points in their first two home games. That plays right into the hands of the reborn Purdue offense under 1st year HC Brohm. In Week #1, the Boilers nearly upset highly respected Louisville before losing 35-28. Last week, they easily handled a respected Ohio team, 44-21, “200 Clubbing” them for at least 263 yards both running and passing. It is that type of offense that has made Brohm such a highly respected mentor in the world of CFB. Brohm enters today with his Western Kentucky and Purdue teams on a 15-5 ATS run. Combined with the fact that the Boilermakers bring the confidence of a solid road history that has the program 14-3 ATS away of late gives credence to this momentum play in the face of the contrary AFP indicator. I say to HC Brohm “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It!

    Big Dog of the Week
    Tulane at Oklahoma (-34) 6:00 PM ET
    Back to handicapping 101 for what could well, in retrospect, be the biggest letdown game of the CFB season. In a matchup of Top 5 teams last week, not only did the Sooners get their home revenge AT Ohio State but they put an exclamation point on the 31-16 win with a flag plant at mid-field by Sooners QB Baker Mayfield. If that does not spell “LETDOWN” when facing a little respected Tulane team, I don’t know what does. But this is a Tulane team under 2nd year HC Willie Fritz who has shown continual improvement. Last week against Navy, the king of option football, Tulane went toe to toe at the point of attack with the Middies being outrushed 194-191 in a narrow 23-21 comeback win for Navy. Now he takes his triple option to Norman where the Sooners have rarely seen this kind of attack especially in recent seasons in the pass heavy BIG 12 Conference. Look for Tulane to control the clock, shorten the game, take Mayfield and company out of their rhythm, and easily come in under the 5 TD impost. With last week’s ATS win, Fritz is now on a 24-15 ATS run.

    Steamroller of the Week
    Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky (-7) 7:00 PM ET
    In the Purdue analysis above, I mentioned the importance of current Boilers HC Brohm in immediately turning around the Purdue Program. To further note his coaching abilities, consider his success at Western Kentucky in the previous 3 years where his teams went a combined 31-10 SU averaging 45 PPG. Now consider the start of current Toppers HC Sanford whose Western team has started 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS. And this has been against Eastern Kentucky and Illinois. In the Game #1 victory vs. EKY, 31-17, Western held only a 364-345 yardage edge. Last week, Western lost 20-7 at bottom of the barrel Illinois being outrushed 193-6. So what is going to happen when the high-powered offense of Louisiana Tech comes to town behind veteran 5th year HC Holtz who is 8-3 ATS as road dog at Rustin. Last week in obeying my command, Tech got trounced when stepping up in class against powerful Miss State from the SEC. They were outrushed 327-152 in a 57-21 loss. Today, however, they step way down in class to face a Western team who defeated them in the CUSA Playoff game last year, 58-44. Tech was +12 in that game and is still +7 in this contest. That does not nearly account for the difference in the coaching change at Western. In a contest where Tech would have been favored at the beginning of the year, we jump in with major value in a rare opportunity for a revenging underdog to win outright.

    I.C.E Game of the Week
    Army at Ohio State (-30) 4:30 PM ET
    Each week in this missive, I isolate an ICE game in which our team plays with (I)ntensity, (C)onviction and (E)xecution. Though Ohio State will certainly be looking to do that following their home field debacle last week, it is Army who plays with that ICE mentality each week. Enough of this “Urban Meyer – Ohio State Legend”! Consider their most recent 3 games. A 31-0 shutout at the hands of Clemson in a Playoff game last year, an opening day win at Indiana when they were tied with the Hoosiers at the half, and last week’s 31-16 loss to avenging Oklahoma. Now they must host an emerging triple option team who, under 4th year HC Monken, is playing their best ball in a number of years. They trounced Fordham in the opener 64-6, then roared back for a 21-17 win against underrated Buffalo as they rushed for 322 yards making the 2 game average 417 RYPG. THAT WILL RUN A LOT OF CLOCK AND SHORTEN THE GAME CONSIDERABLY making this 30 point impost a mountain. Remember that Meyer has only faced the option 3 prior times. The last time was 3 years ago when Navy gashed the OSU front 7 for 370/5.9. Want no part of the Buckeyes bounce back at a price point where home favorites are 28-48 ATS as -14+ in CFB this season.

    Under the Radar Game of the Week
    Tulsa at Toledo (-10) 7:00 PM ET
    With over 50 games each week in the CFB season, the casual handicapper seldom takes time to glance at non-conference matchups such as this one between the MAC-West and the AAC-West. Yet these are a pair of quality programs who will each have winning records at the end of the season. The Toledo offense is led by QB Woodside who has boosted the Rockets to wins of 47-13 vs. Elon (553-175 yards), then 37-24 at improving Nevada last week in which they rolled up 426 yards. Long knocking on the door in the rugged MAC-West, this figures to be the year they ascend to the Title game. Tulsa had an outstanding year under then 2nd year HC Montgomery going 10-3 SU, 8-4 ATS while averaging 42/527 on offense. To Montgomery’s credit, he has ably filled in the gaps with QB President and RB Brewer leading the charge. After an opening week loss at Ok State, they dominated LA LaFayette last week, 66-42 with 667 yards in one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the week. Look for Tulsa to offer enough fire power to come in comfortably under this double digit impost.

    Hidden Gem of the Week
    Oregon (-14) at Wyoming 7:00 PM ET CBC TV
    The linemaker has quickly adjusted for the presumed Oregon improvement under 1st year HC Taggart. Last year, the Ducks dipped to 4-8 SU, 2-8 ATS in the final season under HC Helfrich. At the close of last year, Wyoming would actually have been the favorite in this game. But since the Ducks scorched S. Utah for 703 yards and followed it up with 566 yards in their 42-35 “save” last week vs. Nebraska, this line has zoomed more than 2 touchdowns for their trip to Wyoming. Beach boys at altitude are always a negative. Clearly there is a difference between Eugene, Oregon and Laramie, Wyoming which sits at 7100’ of altitude on the Front Range. The Wyoming offense struggled in their opener at Iowa against the staunch Hawkeye defense though the Cowboys were outgained by only 30 yards in the 23-3 loss. Last week, they bounced back with a 27-0 home field victory against G. Webb in which the Cowboys purported NFL ready QB Allen passed for 328 yards. With Oregon looking dead ahead to their 9 game PAC 12 schedule and having just survived Nebraska in their home revenge game, this has sandwich spot written all over it.

    Faux or Fo’Real
    Kansas State (-3-) at Vanderbilt 7:30 PM ET ESPNU
    Vandy is off to a 2-0 SU start. Are they Faux or Fo’Real? The clear answer is Faux, as we will soon find out in the next month when they must face Kansas State, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. Starting with a pair of victories over MTSU and Alabama A&M, even by combined scores of 70-6, means little in the overall schemata when stepping up in class against the Big Boys. That becomes a reality today when they must face a Bill Snyder coached team in the BIG 12. Let’s see how Vandy QB Shurmer fairs against a Top rated Wildcat secondary. Under 26th year HC Snyder, there are few coaches who have had more pointspread success year in and year out. The Wildcats began the year by devouring C. Ark and Charlotte at home. With a bye next week, prior to the start of the BIG 12 season, expect full focus today against an SEC team whom they will respect. This may well be one of Snyder’s best teams. This year, Snyder adds a more competent offense to his usual bag of tricks for his special teams and defense. At a slightly reduced price due to Vandy’s hot start, it puts this in a price range where they can comfortably get the cover against a Commodore team whom they expose as Faux.

    Cheap Thrills Game of the Week
    Troy (-6-) at New Mexico State 8:00 PM ET
    Sun Belt opener for each! The Aggies, in their last year of FBS play, are looking to make a statement that their program should not have been downgraded. Already this season, in two road games, they stormed back at Arizona State in the 100 degree 4th quarter heat to turn a 37-13 deficit into a 37-31 final in which they outgained the Sun Devils 549-400. Last week, leading rival New Mexico, 30-5 at the end of the 3rd, the Aggies held on for a 30-28 win again amassing 500 yards. They are allowing just 3.3 YPR while QB Rogers is lighting it up for 400 PYPG. As a result, despite the fact that Troy won this contest, 52-6 last year and 52-7 the year before, there will not be any letdown. Troy brings the league’s best QB in Silvers to the fray who is completing 67% of his passes. After a tough loss at Boise in Week #1, Trojans got a confidence-building win with 605 yards in a 34-7 win against Alabama State. Despite a pair of fine outings, the Trojans still have a -44 AFP diff entering this contest because of the Aggies hot start. That has resulted in an adjustment of 10 full points from where this line would have been opening week. Must step in with the value as Troy fans get their cheap thrills in watching their Trojans dominate a team they have destroyed by a combined count of 104-13 in the previous seasons.

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