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    Mendoza (a poster in another forum) Line cumulative year to date record:

    Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

    Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

    CKO
    11* (0-3) (this was 3-10 last season)
    10* (4-7)
    Totals (4-2)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA (college plays tracked here went 7-0 this week)
    5* (1-2)
    4* (3-0)
    3* (1-2)
    Upset pick (1-1-1)
    Betcha Didn't Know (2-2) (this was 4-13 last season)
    Awesome Angle (3-2)
    Incredible Stat (2-1)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (these were 14-34-3 overall last season)
    5* (1-1)
    4* (1-1)
    3* (0-2)

    Pointwise NCAA
    1* (3-2)
    2* (3-0)
    3* (1-2)
    4* (1-5)
    5* (4-2)

    Pointwise NFL
    3* (1-1)
    4* (1-3)
    5* (2-2)

    PowerSweep NCAA
    4* (0-2) (4* play was canceled this week)
    3* (4-2)
    2* (4-2)
    Underdog Play of the Week (0-3)
    Tech Play of the Week (0-2)
    Revenge Play of the Week (1-2)
    Situational Play of the Week (0-3)
    Series Play of the Week (1-0)

    PowerSweep NFL
    4* (1-1)
    3* (1-1)
    2* (0-2)
    NFL System play (1-1)
    4* Pro Angle (0-1)

    Powers Picks NCAA (went 1-7 overall in college and pro plays this week)
    3* (1-4)
    2* (2-5-1)
    1* (1-1)

    Powers Picks NFL
    3* (0-2)
    2* (1-3)
    1* (0-0)

    Sports Reporter
    NCAA Best Bets (4-6)
    NFL Best Bets (2-2)

    Red Sheet
    89* (1-3)
    88* (4-4)

    Winning Points
    NCAA 4* (1-2)
    NCAA 3* (2-0-1)
    NFL 4* (1-1)
    NFL 3* (0-2)

    Killer Sports, not including teasers (0-4 overall this week)
    MTI 5* (0-0)
    MTI 4.5* (0-1)
    MTI 4* (2-1)
    MTI 3* (0-0)
    SBB 4.5* (0-0)
    SBB 4* (1-3)

    Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
    3* (2-0) (these were 13-5 last season)
    2* (2-1-1)

    PowerPlays
    NCAA 4.5* (3-4-1)
    NFL 4* (0-2)

    Gold Sheet
    NCAA Key Releases (9-2)
    NFL Key Releases (1-5)

    Last Year's Newsletter Records

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    Joe Gavazzi’s
    CFB POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS

    Issue #4 2017
    By Joe Gavazzi
    Join the hundreds who will win millions this year with these elite plays!
    The 50 Point AFP Solution
    Joe Gavazzi

    Tuesday, September 19, 2017

    Last week in this space, we talked about learning a new language, the language of the AFP (Away From the Pointspread). With it, comes a whole new way of thinking about handicapping. Rather than playing selections based purely on momentum, with the attendant loss in line value, the AFP indicator SEEKS OUT VALUE to let you know, IN A VERY CONTRARY WAY, when to play the LETDOWN, or the BOUNCEBACK.

    To review the concept of the AFP, I will repeat the example we used last week. Let’s say a 10 point favorite wins a game by 30 points, FOR THAT GAME, they would have a +20 AFP. This number can be used in referring to a specific game, a group of games such as home or away, for the YTD, or in conjunction with another team’s AFP to provide A NET DIFFERENTIAL NUMBER. It is that Net Differential Number that is of greatest concern to us in this article. Please allow me to put it in terms of stating the concept.

    The 50 point Contrary AFP Concept: Between Games #4 and #7 (for each team) of the CFB Season, we look to play ON a team who has an AFP of -20 or worse and AGAINST an opponent with an AFP of +20 or better if the sum of those numbers is 50 or more. Finally, it is imperative that our PLAY ON team has a LOSING pointspread record and that our PLAY AGAINST team has a WINNING pointspread record.

    The optimal situation for this is if either our PLAY ON team LOST SU and ATS in their game last week, or if our PLAY AGAINST team WON SU and ATS in their game last week. It is even better if both situations occur. Because the linemaker adjusts approximately 1 point in a team’s power rating for every 7 to 10 points of AFP differential, we are in most cases getting at least a touchdown of line value from where this line would have been in Week #1 which is the linemaker’s highly respected original opinion of all teams.

    Let’s look at examples for the games of Saturday, September 23rd

    Team
    SU
    ATS
    AFP
    Foe
    SU
    ATS
    AFP
    Net AFP
    Diff
    Line Value
    from Wk #1
    App State
    2-1
    0-3
    -26
    Wake Forest
    3-0
    3-0
    +49
    -75
    7
    Boston College
    1-2
    0-3
    -51
    Clemson
    3-0
    3-0
    +39
    -90
    7
    Nebraska
    1-2
    1-2
    -20
    Rutgers
    1-2
    2-1
    +32
    -52
    10
    UTEP
    0-3
    0-3
    -49
    New Mex State
    1-2
    3-0
    +30
    -79
    15
    Baylor
    0-3
    1-2
    -58
    Oklahoma
    3-0
    3-0
    +35
    -93
    14
    Arizona St
    1-2
    0-2-1
    -32
    Oregon
    3-0
    2-1
    +31
    -63
    15

    These (6) teams above are the qualifiers for this weekend’s games. They are rarely easy to bet, but what do you care as long as you are putting money in your pocket.
    KEEP ON TRACKIN’
    52-21 ATS Any team who double rushed their opponent (75% ATS L16Y)
    29-8 ATS Any team who ran AND passed for 200+ yards if opponent did not (“200 Club”)
    12-1 ATS Any team who is +3 or more turnovers in the game





    PREFERRED SELECTIONS ARE UNDERLINED

    Saturday, September 23rd

    Perception/Reality Game of the Week
    Wake Forest (-5-) at Appalachian State 3:30 PM ET

    Here’s the perception… Wake Forest is a team who continues to turn it around for 4th year HC Clawson, a coach whose Deacons went 6-18 SU his first two seasons. Last year with 17 RS, Wake went 7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS including a Bowl win vs. Temple as double digit dog. This year, they are out of the gate at 3-0 SU, ATS covering the number by 49 points. On the other side of the field, is an App State team widely predicted to win the Sun Belt. They are 0-3 ATS, -26 AFP, thus considered to be an underachiever. HERE’S THE REALITY. Wake has defeated 3 barefoot teams in Presby, BC and Utah State. Feeling good about themselves, they have a dead look ahead to ACC powers Florida State and Clemson in the next two weeks. App State just completed a conference opening game victory against lowly Texas State, 20-13. There was little focus for a last place team whom they defeated 35-10 LY. THIS CHANCE TO FACE AN ACC TEAM WHO IS LESS THAN 100 MILES AWAY FROM THEM IN A GAME OF FAR GREATER IMPORTANCE THAN ANY SEPTEMBER CONTEST. With the benefit of a -75 AFP yielding more than a touchdown of line value (see lead article above), we comfortably line up with App State as our Perception/Reality Game of the Week. Technicians will flock to the current Wake run of 9-2 ATS and 8-1 ATS away mark, while they shy away from an App State team who is 1-9 ATS in Boone of late. Outright home underdog win no surprise to this bureau in the Perception/Reality Game of the Week.

    If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It
    Michigan (-10) at Purdue 4:00 PM ET FOX

    We won with Purdue as this very “Named Game” last week but shied away from using it as a Game Day selection based on decreasing line value. WRONG! The Boilers cruised 35-3 (as +7) and even put the brakes on in the 2nd half preparing for this contest. Now that Purdue is 3-0 ATS and has covered by 63 points, we face the same dilemma as they face a powerful Michigan team. Before we shy away again, note that in Week #1 against an explosive Louisville team, the Boilers took the Cards to the limit in a 7 point loss. Today, however, they must face the #5 defense in the Nation who has reloaded despite just 5 returning starters. In addition, because of Purdue’s hot start, we will be taking more than a TD LESS of value than opening week. Still, HC Brohm continues to work his magic, with his teams on runs of 25-11 and 16-5 ATS. QB Blough has completed 76% of his passes while RB Fuller is rushing for over 6 YPR. This week’s issue is a front door cover by a Michigan defense with a late game Pick 6, while the Boilers are chasing from behind. Nonetheless, as I wrote once again in my memo to HC Brohm this week, “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It”. Purdue outright?



    Faux or Fo’Real
    Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (-7-) 12:20 PM ET

    The Faux or Fo’Real query is normally reserved for whether a hot team will continue its momentum or has a letdown. This week, we switch gears and ask whether a 1-2 SU Pitt team, who is 0-3 ATS -34 points, is Faux or Fo’Real. When Pitt HC Narduzzi came to the Burg as a highly touted DC from Michigan State, he was expected to improve the stop troops. That ain’t happened! Last year, the Panthers allowed 35/453 including 333 PYPG, among the worst in the Nation. Opening week saw a 2nd half look-ahead to Penn State and a narrow escape against Y. State. Trouncings followed by Top 10 teams, Penn State and Ok State by a combined count of 92-35. Now they must switch gears rather quickly to face the well-rested option attack of HC Johnson and Georgia Tech who had a buffer following their 1 point loss to Tennessee opening day followed by an unscheduled week of rest. They will be ready to roll with their #1 rushing offense and a 6-0 ATS recent mark. Aside from their defensive issues, the Panthers may well be starting rookie QB Ben Dinucci who will be making his first start on the road after highly touted USC transfer QB Browne flamed out in the 1st three contests. Aided by a 37-34 revenge margin from last year and with the additional week of prep time, a double digit victory margin will be inevitable against a Panther team who proves to be FAUX!

    Underdog Game of the Week
    Penn State (-12-) at Iowa 7:30 PM ET ABC

    Top 5 Penn State continues to roll behind QB McSorley and RB Barkley. They are averaging 48 PPG, are on a 12-1 ATS run, and are 11-1 ATS on the road of late. Note, however, this year’s offensive explosion includes 108 combined points at home against Akron and Georgia State. When facing the only decent opponent to date, the stats were relatively even in their game against the rival Panthers. Tonight, they must take to the road for a prime-time game in the role of double digit favorite. It is a setting perfectly conceived for veteran HC Ferentz in a sold out Kinnick Stadium. Considering the 41-14 revenge motive from last year, and Penn State’s lofty status, there is little doubt that the Hawkeyes play this one with Super Bowl intensity. Ferentz coached teams have covered 10 consecutive times as underdog in this price range against Class A opponents. Though Iowa RB Butler is expected to miss up to a month, starting RB Wadley (leg) has been upgraded to probable for this contest. Iowa QB Stanley, with a 10/1 ratio, has shown great promise as the first year signal caller. This game goes to the wire with the outright upset no surprise to this bureau.

    Steamroller Game of the Week
    West Virginia (-21-) at Kansas 12:00 PM ET ESPNU

    Pure momentum play in a game where the line has moved little since the opening week number! Following a bitter opening week loss to rival Virginia Tech, the Mountaineers have responded by scoring 115 combined points in games against outmanned foes, E. Car. and Del. State. They are now averaging 583 YPG. Can this pathetic Jayhawk edition, again scheduled for the Big 12 basement, be much above those opponents? After all, the Jayhawks just lost by 18 and 12 points to MAC foes, C. Mich and Ohio, allowing 87 points in the process. QB Greir, with an 11/2 ratio, along with RB Crawford, lead another overland assault as they Steamroll the downtrodden Jayhawks by 4+ TDs.




    Crusher Game of the Week
    Georgia Southern at Indiana (-24) 3:30 PM ET BIG 10 TV

    Things have gone totally upside down for this Georgia Southern program. It was just 2 seasons ago, in 2015, that this proud Eagles program, under the tutelage of HC Willie Fritz, was recording its 3rd consecutive Nation leading season of 360 or more RYPG. When Fritz took the job at Tulane at the start of 2016, he was replaced by Tyson Summers. In complete antithesis of the “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It” motto, Summers felt he had a better way. Few CFB coaches have ever been more wrong. Entering today, the Eagles are 5-9 SU, 3-9 ATS under Summers. With just 10 RS and lacking identity, the Eagles crashed and burned in their previous contest losing 22-12 as 7 point favorite to New Hampshire. When facing a real team in Week #1, they lost 41-7 to Auburn. There is little hope for success in the Sun Belt, and even less hope in this contest today. The Hoosiers, under 1st year HC Allen, have been steeled by contests against Ohio State (whom they played on even terms for ½ the game), then by a rout of Virginia where they controlled the proceedings throughout. With a week of rest, this outmanned foe provides an excellent tune up for next week’s Big 10 meeting against powerful Penn State. No worries, however, about a 4th quarter letdown. QB Lagow and QB Ramsey are fighting for the starting signal caller position, meaning there will be full focus for the entire game regardless of who is at the controls in the 4th quarter. With this 4 TD rout, we extend the record for the Crusher of the Week to 4-0 ATS on these pages!

    I.C.E. Game of the Week
    Cincinnati at Navy (-11-) 3:30 PM ET CBSC

    Each week on these pages, I focus on an I. C. E. game in which our team plays with (I)ntensity, (C)onviction and (E)xecution. Though that acronym always refers to the Middies, they are in an excellent situation this week. They have an extra week to prepare while Cincinnati is playing a 3rd consecutive game on the road in 3 weeks. The first of those was a physical pounding at Michigan. Last week, it was a highly emotional rivalry win when they stormed back from being down double digits in the 4th scoring on a pick 6 with a minute to play for the 21-17 win against arch rival Miami, OH. No surprise if the Bearcats, who are on a 6-13 ATS slide, come with less than full intensity at Annapolis this afternoon. 1st year HC Fickell prepped for Navy during his time as Ohio State assistant. That may not be of much use today. The Middies remain underrated. On recent runs of 35-20 and 17-9 ATS, they have covered 7/11 recent games as home chalk. As always, 10th year HC Niumatalolo has a well prepared signal caller in QB Abbey, who is averaging 5.6 YPR. With a 4 quarter mentality, look for Navy to I.C.E. this game early on as they cruise to an easy 3 TD victory.

    Puppy of the Week
    Notre Dame (-4) at Michigan State 8:00 PM ET FOX

    These marquee matchup Saturday night home dogs have been like money in the bank in recent seasons. This is most probably another outright winner. Following their 20-19 home loss to Georgia two weeks ago, the Irish bounce backed smartly with a 49-20 trouncing of BC. It was a game in which they totaled 611 yards including 515 overland. It was indeed reminiscent of their opening rout of Temple, 49-16, in which they gained 606 yards and 422 overland. In between, however, was that loss to Georgia in which they were outgained 326-265 and outrushed 185-55. Are you beginning to see a pattern? Now, they must face another Power 5 team who, much like Notre Dame, is looking for redemption from a disappointing season of last. Though untested, Sparty has recorded confidence-building wins against MAC entities B.G. and Western Mich. With an extra week to prepare, they look to duplicate the 36-28 win over the Irish last season. QB Lewerke has been outstanding with a 4/1 ratio while averaging 8.8 YPR overland. Little doubt this has been Sparty’s role, as under 11th year HC Dantonio, they are 17-5 ATS as dog including 4-0 ATS as home pup. Add another as the Irish fail to step up in class.




    Cheap Thrills
    Auburn (-19) at Missouri 7:30 PM ET ESU

    The drums are starting to beat both on the Plains as well as in the Heartland for coaches of a pair of Tigers who have each begun the year 0-3 ATS. Despite a pair of victories against outmanned foes Georgia Southern and Mercer, it was the Game #2 loss at Clemson, 14-6, in which Auburn gained only 117 total yards that disturbed the Auburn faithful. Last week’s purported bounce back against Mercer, though a 24-10 victory with a 510-246 yardage edge, was marred by a -5 net TO margin. Clearly, however, there is far more upside to the Auburn season with transfer QB Stidham showing great potential. There is little good to be said about today’s host. In Game #1, Missouri allowed 43 points to Missouri State. After a 31-13 game #2 loss to South Carolina, Missouri head coach, Odom, fired DC Cross. That was merely meant to divert attention from himself as he is the one actually in charge of the defense. A defensive decline continued last week when Purdue “200 Clubbed” Missouri, 35-3 with a 477-203 yardage edge. That was with a merciful 2nd half by Boilers HC Brohm. Expect no such mercy today from Auburn HC Malzahn whose team needs to put it all together for a confidence-building win prior to a brutal 8 game SEC slate. There will be plenty of Cheap Thrills for the Auburn faithful as the visiting Tigers run up the score in a comfortable 4 TD win.

    Penthouse Pick
    TCU at Oklahoma State (-11) 3:30 PM ET ESPN

    3-0 SU, ATS Oklahoma State is rampaging through September with wins of 35 vs. Tulsa, 34 vs. USA and 38 vs. Pitt while averaging 54 PPG. QB Rudolph, with an 11/1 ratio and 378 PYPG, is throwing to a plethora of quality receivers. Last year, they trounced TCU, 31-6, with a 541-343 yardage advantage. Our big edge here is the mental advantage owned by TCU. This is a Top 10 pass defense who has held each of their FBS opponents to their season low in yards. Last week, after spotting SMU an early lead, the Frogs rallied for a 56-36 win. Throw in 31-6 revenge from last year and the motivation of bouncing back from a rare losing season last year, 6-7 SU, 3-9 ATS, and you’ve got a double digit dog with bite! 17th year HC Patterson has been a solid road dog at 11-3 ATS on the run while QB Hill has played up to expectations.



    Under the Radar Game of the Week
    Ball State at Western Kentucky (-7-) 7:00 PM ET

    No team may have dropped farther in the power ratings, year over year, than this Western Kentucky team who has broken from the gate 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS with a -53 AFP. Yet today’s line is still in the range where it would have been opening week despite the fact Ball State is 2-1 SU, ATS. Look no further than the change at the top and only 10 returning starters for the Tops. It’s a long way between the guidance of departed HC Brohm to former Tops assistant Mike Sanford who spent the previous 2 seasons on the staff of Notre Dame. Yet he would not be the first CFB coach to have failed in his quest to step up as the head man. Despite the return of senior QB White, Western has dropped from their 45 PPG average of the 3 previous seasons under Brohm to only 15 PPG. That is against the likes of E. Ky., Illinois, and LA Tech. Ball State has long been an outstanding road team and enters today’s contest with a recent 6-0 ATS road dog log including a cover at Illinois in Game #1 when they outgained the Illini, 375-216. QB Neill is averaging 68% C while the 3 headed RB monster of Gilbert, Huntly and Dunner are averaging 5.4 YPR. Wrong team favored in this Under the Radar special!

    Hidden Gem
    USC (-17) at California 3:30 PM ET ABC

    Love this situation! USC continues to play to the level of competition. In Week #1 as 28 point favorite, they allowed Western Michigan to hang around well into the 2nd half. When challenged in Week #2, they smacked Stanford from the opening gun, 42-24 as (-5). Last week as 17 point home chalk, they were life and death vs. Texas needing to tie it in the closing minutes before winning 27-24 in OT. With a bigger game next week against Washington State, they will again play down to the level of Cal even though this could be considered a potential rivalry game. That only assumes that recent games in the series have been competitive. But USC is 10-2 ATS in this series of late. Trojan QB Darnold has now won 12 straight starts and is completing 75% of his passes. But there have been 6 INTs as well. Real change in this matchup has taken place at Cal where highly respected DC Wilcox has taken nicely to the role of head man in making a meaningful difference in Berkeley. Major improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball where the Bears, after allowing 43/518 LY have given up only 22 PPG in 3 outings this year. That includes come-back wins vs. Power 5 opponent North Carolina in Week #1, and last week against Ole Miss. where Cal won outright 27-16 after trailing by 9 at the half. This Hidden Gem is far closer than “they” have priced.





    Lone Ranger Game of the Week
    Oregon (-16) at Arizona State 10:00 PM ET

    You and I and the Lone Ranger are the only ones who will be backing the Sun Devil’s bottom rated pass defense against an Oregon offense that gained 703 vs. S. Utah, 566 vs. Nebraska, and 558 yards last week vs. Wyoming despite calling off the dogs after intermission. They are now averaging 56 PPG behind quickly maturing QB Herbert and RB Freeman. The change is evident with 1st year HC Taggart replacing Helfrich at the helm. Taggart’s own great road chalk record fits like a glove with the Ducks 15-5 ATS mark as road chalk. What chance do the Sun Devils have with a defense that’s allowed 45 PPG in the last 7 outings, stands 1-8 ATS in the series including losing last year’s game, 54-45. Under Taggart, however, the Ducks MO has switched to a 64% run heavy offense in which he continues to feed the ball to RB Freeman. Assuming that MO remains, that clearly aides the home underdog. The Sun Devils have much to prove following a disappointing 5-7 SU season of last (no Bowl) and a pair of narrow losses recently to TTRR and SD State. With RB Ballage and RB Richard, the Sun Devils can play a bit of ball control and keep this far closer than the number.

    Rivalry Game of the Week
    UCLA at Stanford (-7-) 10:30 PM ET ESPN

    The 45-44 UCLA opening night win against A&M will go down as one of the legendary comebacks in CFB. It may even be the victory which qualifies the Bruins for Bowl eligibility. Behind QB Rosen, with his 13/2 ratio and 428 PYPG, the UCLA offensive onslaught continued with a 56-23 trouncing of Hawaii and 45 points at Memphis in a 3 point loss. Today, however, they face a team who not only plays the type of fundamental ball control football that is ill-suited to the UCLA style, but also a hungry team who is off consecutive losses to USC and SD State. With their preferred method of controlling the game on the ground and with their defense, Stanford has an 8-1 ATS series advantage over the visiting Bruins. QB Chryst is emerging as a game manager while RB Love, in replacing McCaffery, has run for 160+ yards each game. Now playing in their home opener and off back-to-back defeats, look for Stanford to have their way against an injury-plagued defense of the Bruins. Note that the Cardinal is 11-3 ATS/loss of late.

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    cant pick a winner, thanks for posting all the newletters, know it is a lot of trouble. during your searches if you run across marc lawrence mid week alert would you please post it any week you see it. it is a very good capping tool as the stats are best of all the newletters.

    again thanks for all you do

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    Gold sheet cko

    11 cal
    10 wvu
    10 unlv
    10 bama
    10 Green Bay
    9 penn state
    9 tenn
    9 San Diego st
    9 washington

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    Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL (all games) http://plus.philsteele.com/inside_th...B_NFL_WK_3.pdf

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    Zcode NCAAF Week 5 predictions

    NCAAF is in full swing and it’s time to jump in on the action. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. NCAAF doesn’t have the betting volume that the NFL gets so we will have to be selective in our approach. But books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (9/27) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.


    OKLAHOMA STATE @ TEXAS TECH
    Oklahoma State took their first loss of the season last week but they are ranked 15th in the country and the public expects them to bounce back.
    Winning on the road in Lubbock is very difficult, especially at night. Texas Tech will throw everything they have at Oklahoma State and should get a great effort. This line is dropping down so I think we can go ahead and jump on Texas Tech +10 (BetOnline)


    HOUSTON @ TEMPLE
    Houston is the team with the pedigree and the public has jumped on the bandwagon.
    This is a tough road trip for Houston after losing a close game at home vs Texas Tech. Temple is already 0-1 in conference play and this is a must win for them so a huge effort should be expected. Let’s take Temple +14 (5Dimes).


    VANDERBILT @ FLORIDA
    Vanderbilt was crushed by Alabama and Florida was lucky to get a win vs Kentucky. Florida has not looked good and the public is on the Vanderbilt train.
    Florida changed quarterbacks for this game and Luke Del Rio should be an upgrade from what they were getting at that position. Vanderbilt has been a trendy sleeper team but after a meltdown last week I don’t think it gets any easier for them against a hungry Florida team. Let’s take Florida -10(Bookmaker).


    Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

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