Page 3 of 96 FirstFirst ... 23456781353 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 1919

Thread: Newsletters

  1. #41
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379
    THE TGS EXTRA
    SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2, 2017 NO. 5



    TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

    COLLEGE TECH PLAYS

    EASTERN MICHIGAN

    While Kentucky has been focusing on climbing the SEC East ladder in recent years, it has left itself vulnerable in non-conference opposition. The Wildcats haven’t learned how to take care of business in those sorts of games, dropping their last seven vs. the line in intersectional play, and face another of those tricky assignments on Saturday in Lexington vs. undervalued Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have offered pretty good spread value lately, especially away from Ypsilanti, where they’ve covered 8 of their last 9. Note that UK is also a subpar 1-6 its last 7 as double-digit chalk.


    NAVY

    There’s a reason why Navy often frequents the Tech Plays box, as it does again this Saturday for its trip to Tulsa. Simply, the Mids have been offering good spread value for years, especially on the road, where they stand a solid 21-11 vs. the line their last 32. They’ve also won and covered the last two years vs. the Golden Hurricane, and are always a featured recommendation in the Coach and Pointspread system with HC Ken Niumatalolo. Note that Tulsa continues to provide better value on the road than at home, where it is 9-17 vs. the line since the 2013 campaign.



    NEW MEXICO STATE

    We hope we aren’t too late to catch up with this emerging go-with trend of New Mexico State, which takes its act to Fayetteville for a battle vs. misfiring Arkansas on Saturday. Simply, the Aggies have been one of the nation’s best pointspread bargains this season, covering their first four against the number, success that carries back to last season, with NMSU now 11-4 vs. the points its last 15 on the board. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have been nothing special for a while as chalk, covering just 5 of their last 13 in that role, and have dropped their last four vs. the number against non-SEC foes.

    FRESNO STATE

    Several teams have emerged as pointspread forces to watch in September. One of those is Fresno State, which is a spotless 3-0 vs. the line (including covers at two of last year’s Final Four participants, Alabama and Washington), and looks to add another W on Saturday at Bulldog Stadium vs. struggling Nevada. The bulldogs’ recent spread prowess stretches to last season as they’ve now covered five straight and eight of ten, and they’re 5-2 vs. the line the last seven vs. the Wolf Pack. Note Nevada has dropped its last three spread decisions, with a woeful -23.25 “AFS” (Away from Spread) mark its last two games.



    NFL TECH PLAYS

    NEW ORLEANS

    It looks like New Orleans is alive again after last week’s romp at Carolina, and the Saints look to continue their uptick on Sunday at Wembley Stadium in London vs. Miami. Traveling across the pond should be no bother to New Orleans, which seems to play better away from the Superdome anyway, covering 8 of its last 10 away from home. Note that the travel-weary Dolphins are playing their third straight on the road, where they’ve covered just 9 of their last 22.


    BUF-ATL “OVER”

    The premier “over” trend in the NFL belongs to Atlanta, which looks to improve upon that mark on Sunday at new Mercedes Benz Stadium against visiting Buffalo. The Falcs are now “over” 18-4 since last season, including 11 straight at home. Meanwhile, the Bills have been trending “over” lately as well (13-6 since last season).

  2. #42
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379
    Zcode NFL WEEK 4 fade-the-public picks and predictions

    Sweep! 3-0 ATS in Week 3 which improves our YTD to 7-2. Let’s see if we cankeep it going with a few potential plays for Week 4. The main strategy I wantto implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit publicperception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a fewheavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/26) soalways keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.


    JACKSONVILLE @ NEWYORK JETS
    While the Jets quietly beat a bad Dolphins team, the public took notice asJacksonville dominated Baltimore in London.
    It’s always tough to play the next week after being in London and the Jetswill be looking to carry the momentum from their first win of the season intothis week. Let’s take NewYork +3.5 (BetOnline)


    CAROLINA @ NEWENGLAND
    The Panthers were awful last week against the Saints and the Patriots wereable to sneak away with a close win over Houston. As always, New England is ahuge public favorite:
    While Carolina has been struggling offensively all season, New England hashistorically had problems with mobile quarterbacks and this could be the gamethat Cam Newton breaks out. With such one-sided action we are able to get asolid underdog at a great number. Let’s take Carolina +10 (5Dimes)


    TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON
    We’re going to take a little different strategy with this game. The Titansare coming off a huge win over Seattle while Houston hung tough but came upshort against New England. I think there will be some separation in the percentagesbut as of now the public is relatively split.
    I think Houston is the sharp side and catching this line early will allow usto get a few points. The Texans return home after a tough loss while the Titansare in a potential letdown spot. Let’s take Houston +2(Bookmaker)


    Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lotsof wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentagesthroughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when thepublic side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the bettingvolume grows.

  3. #43
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379

  4. #44
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379

  5. #45

  6. #46

  7. #47
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379
    Cfb advisor picks

    4* Fresno st - 16
    3* WKU - 18
    2* WMU - 6.5
    1* Maryland +32
    1* Marshall - 14
    Western Michigan

  8. #48

  9. #49

  10. #50
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379

  11. #51

  12. #52

  13. #53
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379

  14. #54

  15. #55

  16. #56

  17. #57
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379
    NELLY'S GREEN SHEET

    COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
    ************************************************** ********************
    RATING 5 NOTRE DAME (-17) over North Carolina
    RATING 4 SMU (+5½) over Houston
    RATING 3 WASHINGTON STATE (+2½) over Oregon
    RATING 2 EASTERN MICHIGAN (+13½) over Toledo
    RATING 2 UT-SAN ANTONIO (-12½) over Southern Miss
    RATING 1 NORTHWESTERN (+14) over Penn State
    RATING 1 MARSHALL (-14½) over Charlotte

    NFL KEY SELECTIONS
    ************************************************** ********************
    RATING 5 PHILADELPHIA (-6½) over Arizona
    RATING 4 JACKSONVILLE (+9) over Pittsburgh
    RATING 3 DETROIT (-3) over Carolina
    RATING 2 CINCINNATI (-3) over Buffalo
    RATING 1 LA CHARGERS (+3½) over NY Giants

  18. #58
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379
    Zcode CFB Public Fades - Totals

    As we know, the betting public prefers favorites and overs. While bettingthe total doesn’t get anywhere near the tickets that the spread bets do, thereis value to be found in targeting unders. Through Week 5 of the 2017 NCAAF season, unders have gone 186-147 (56%). Westarted off last week going 2-1 on our O/Us so let’s take a look at 3 gameswith potential under plays for us this week.


    GEORGIA @ VANDERBILT
    Using the ZCode Line Reversals Tool, we can see where the early bets have been going.Despite the public on the over, the total has dropped up to two points atsome books. Vanderbilt is going to have a hard time scoring. Without theability to keep up with Georgia offensively, Vanderbilt’s only chance is toplay a ball control game and win field position. Let’s take Georgia/Vanderbilt Under 41.


    ALABAMA @ TEXAS A&M
    Another game that the public has jumped on the over.A huge game for A&M at home and it will be loud and crazy. Both teamsrun the ball well and defend against the run well so I think we can expect tosee some clock-eating drives and field goals. While both offenses are verycapable of putting points on the board, the total has dropped 2.5 points atsome books. Let’s take Alabama/TexasA&M Under 55.


    CALIFORNIA @WASHINGTON
    This will be a total that the public will have a very hard time betting the under.Washington has been very good on defense this season and I expect a statement type performance from that side of the ball. Despite the public on the over, the total has dropped 5 points at some books after opening at 57.5.Let’s take California/Washington Under 53.

  19. #59
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379
    Zcode NFL Public Fades - Week 5



    Sweep! Another 3-0 ATS in Week 4 which improves our YTD to 10-2. Lets see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 5.The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners


    by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (10/4) so always

    keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.



    BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI

    The Bills are coming off an impressive win over Atlanta and the public has taken notice.

    This is a potential letdown spot for Buffalo after a big win and now having to travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals quietly got their first win of the season


    and are in a great spot at home to give a big effort. Cincinnati -2.5 (5Dimes)



    GREEN BAY @ DALLAS

    Dallas laid a huge egg at home last week and the betting public has jumped off the band wagon.


    While Green Bay has looked solid, they have played the Bengals and Bears in back to back weeks so the Cowboys will be a big upgrade in opponents.


    Dallas, after a bad loss at home, will be hungry for a win and we should see a great effort from them. Dallas -1 (5Dimes)




    KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON

    The Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the league and the public is all aboard the KC train.


    Winning on the road is hard in the NFL and, with a short week to prepare, this could be the week Kansas City picks up their first loss.


    Houston, and Deshaun Watson, had a breakout win last week and will be riding a wave of momentum at home once again. Houston +1 (BetOnline)

  20. #60
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    344,460
    Rep Power
    379
    Someone in another forum (Mendoza) is nice enough to do this:

    CKO
    11* (1-4) (this was 3-10 last season)
    10* (10-9)
    Totals (4-4)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
    5* (1-3-1)
    4* (3-2)
    3* (3-2)
    Upset pick (1-3-1)
    Betcha Didn't Know (3-4)
    Awesome Angle (3-4)
    Incredible Stat (3-2)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (these were 14-34-3 overall last season)
    5* (2-2)
    4* (1-3)
    3* (0-4)

    Pointwise NCAA
    1* (4-5)
    2* (5-0)
    3* (2-3)
    4* (3-7)
    5* (7-3)

    Pointwise NFL
    3* (1-3)
    4* (3-5)
    5* (3-5)

    PowerSweep NCAA
    4* (1-3)
    3* (4-6)
    2* (8-2)
    Underdog Play of the Week (2-3)
    Tech Play of the Week (1-2)
    Revenge Play of the Week (3-2)
    Situational Play of the Week (1-4)
    Series Play of the Week (1-2)

    PowerSweep NFL
    4* (3-1)
    3* (2-2)
    2* (1-3)
    NFL System play (2-2)
    4* Pro Angle (1-1)

    Powers Picks NCAA
    3* (1-8)
    2* (7-6-1)
    1* (1-1)

    Powers Picks NFL
    3* (1-2)
    2* (4-4)
    1* (0-0)

    Sports Reporter
    NCAA Super Best Bets (1-0)
    NCAA Best Bets (6-11)
    NFL Best Bets (5-3)

    Red Sheet
    89* (4-4)
    88* (8-8)

    Winning Points
    NCAA 4* (0-5)
    NCAA 3* (4-0-1)
    NFL 4* (1-3)
    NFL 3* (2-2)

    Killer Sports, not including teasers
    MTI 5* (0-0)
    MTI 4.5* (3-1)
    MTI 4* (2-2)
    MTI 3* (0-0)
    SBB 4.5* (1-0)
    SBB 4* (1-6)

    Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
    3* (3-1) (these were 13-5 last season)
    2* (3-4-1)

    PowerPlays
    NCAA 4.5* (5-7-1)
    NFL 4* (0-4)

    Gold Sheet
    NCAA Key Releases (13-6)
    NFL Key Releases (4-8) (went 3-0 this week)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •