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11-13-2019, 11:30 AM
#1001
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11-14-2019, 12:33 PM
#1002
'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 12 college football picks, bets, nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 12 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 12 picks.
The plays
Stanford Steve (2-3 last week, 29-25-2 overall)
The Bear (5-3 last week, 27-23-1 overall)
Buffalo Bulls (-6, 56) at Kent State Golden Flashes
The Bear: I don't really understand the line move from Buffalo -1 to -6, so I will take the points with the home 'dog here. Sure, the Bulls have covered in four straight, but Kent State has blown out a bad team at home (Bowling Green), beat a good FCS team (Kennesaw State) and was actually favored at home against the team that could be the best in the MAC (Miami Ohio). All three of the Golden Flashes' MAC losses have been one-score affairs, and our numbers have Buffalo by about two. I'll go against the line move here and grab the six.
Pick: Kent State +6
Florida Gators (-7, 51) at Missouri Tigers
The Bear: Missouri couldn't have looked any worse offensively the past three weeks, putting up a combined 21 points on the road in losses against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia. But the Tigers have won every game this season in Columbia by double digits and should have Kelly Bryant back at quarterback. Sure, there could be a measure of revenge in store here, as the Gators have been blown out each of the past two years, but I see it more as a last chance to salvage something from a lost season for the Tigers. And I can't imagine there will be much Missouri love at the window this week, so that makes it even more attractive in my eyes.
Pick: Missouri +7
Kentucky Wildcats (-10.5, 42.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
The Bear: The last time Vanderbilt suffered a truly embarrassing loss -- as a huge favorite on its home field vs. UNLV -- the Commodores bounced back to upset Missouri. Both teams have QB concerns, but being that the Wildcats have put up 0, 13 and 7 points in their three road games, should they really be laying double digits -- even against a really bad team? It seems like eons ago that Vandy put up 38 against LSU. There will be no bowl game for Vandy, but I don't think Derek Mason will quit on his team -- or vice versa. I'll take the smelly home 'dog.
Pick: Vanderbilt +10.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering Herd (-4.5, 55.5)
Stanford Steve: Since losing to Texas in the season opener, Louisiana Tech has won eight straight, including a 52-17 win over North Texas last weekend. There hasn't been a team I have been more wrong about this year than the guys from Ruston. With that being said, I just like the situation for the Herd here, as they have won four straight and, more importantly, control their destiny to play in the Conference USA title game, so there is plenty to play for. The addition of being at home makes me think they will cover the short number Friday night.
Pick: Marshall -4.5. Marshall 27, La. Tech 21
Louisville Cardinals (-4, 55.5) at NC State Wolfpack
Stanford Steve: Things have not been going well for the boys from Raleigh, as they have been decimated by injuries and have proceeded to give up 144 points over their past three games. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their past four road games against a losing team. The Cardinals still need to win to clinch a bowl game, so you would think they would have a little revenge on their minds after being dominated 52-10 last year by the Wolfpack. I'll lay the points with the road team.
Pick: Louisville -4. Louisville 31, NC State 19.
Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars (-10.5, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: I love that Davis Mills will be under center for the Cardinal, but this game is more about who is not going to be in uniform for Stanford. Wazzu's pass offense has had success in previous matchups in this series, as the Cougars have scored a combined 107 points in the past three meetings. That success, along with Stanford being without its two best players in the secondary (Paulson Adebo and Malik Antoine) and seeing the Cardinal score only 13 points against a below-average Colorado defense last week ... I think Wazzu covers the double digits. Take the home team.
Pick: Washington State -10.5. Washington State 38, Stanford 20.
Stanford Steve's noon games to go over the total
Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17.5, 67)
Les Miles returns to Stillwater, where 15 years ago he coached his last home game there. Current Pokes head coach Mike Gundy succeeded Miles and is now the school's wins leader. Both teams are off byes, and both have strong running games. The Cowboys' Chuba Hubbard leads the country in rush yards and had 223 last time out against TCU. Kansas running back Pooka Williams needs 110 yards to reach 2,000 for his career. KU's offense has been good on the road, averaging 431 yards, so I expect the Jayhawks to score enough to help surpass the number.
Pick: Over 67. Oklahoma State 45, Kansas 28.
UMass Minutemen at Northwestern Wildcats (-40.5, 56.5)
Just because.
Pick: Over 56.5. Northwestern 48, UMass 10.
Stanford Steve's Heisman pick
Josh Fields (8-1)
I think it's worth it to take a shot with the Ohio State QB at this point. He has three big games left on his schedule: vs. Penn State, at Michigan and the Big Ten title game. Think about last year; everyone said it was Tua Tagovailoa's award going into championship Saturday. He was injured and Jalen Hurts led the Crimson Tide from behind to beat Georgia, and Oklahoma's Kyler Murray came from the back of the pack and won the award. Listen, it's Joe Burrow's award, but why not take a shot with a guy that has plenty of opportunity ahead of him while Burrow has hit his ceiling, in my opinion.
Stanford Steve's 10-point, three-team teaser
Road favorite teaser.
Alabama -19 (-10)
Wisconsin -15 (-5)
Air Force -10 (Pick)
Stay-away games
USC Trojans (-6.5, 48.5) at California Golden Bears
Every time it seems as if USC has had the chance to throw in the towel on the season, the Trojans play well the next game. And quarterback Kedon Slovis has been so impressive. But with Chase Garbers potentially back at QB for the Bears, I don't know if I'd want to lay 6.5 on the road, as Cal could win games vs. Washington and USC in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1949-50! In 22 games as a 'dog, Cal coach Justin Wilcox is 15-7 ATS with nine outright wins. -- Fallica
Something always crazy happens when these two play -- especially in "Berserkeley." -- Stanford Steve
Virginia Tech Hokies (-5.5, 50.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Speaking of turning its season around, Virginia Tech has done that and still has a chance of reaching the ACC title game. But as I mentioned last week in liking the Jackets as a big 'dog against Virginia, this Georgia Tech team has improved as the season has gone on and it wouldn't surprise me if it hung around here too. -- Fallica
Air Force Falcons (-10, 62.5) at Colorado State Rams
By virtue of an improbable three-game winning streak bolstered by an upset win at Fresno State, the Rams have guaranteed I will not cash my season win total ticket (under 4). But it will still take an upset to get to win No. 5. However, I might be hesitant in laying double digits with the Falcons coming off an unplanned idle week since a hard-fought win over Army. -- Fallica
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Seven-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $104.67.
Kansas State -550
Cincinnati -650
Clemson -12000
Utah -2000
Oregon -3500
Boise State -6000
UL Lafayette -7000
Michigan -550
LSU -1800
Alabama -1400
The Bear's underdogs to play on money lines/parlays/round robins
Kent State +195
Minnesota +130
Wyoming +215
Navy +240
Missouri +225
UNLV +230
Bear Bytes
Minnesota perspective this week
The last time a team 9-0 or better was a 'dog in regular-season vs. a three-loss team: 2012 Ohio State (+2) at Wisconsin. OSU won 21-14. The only time in the past 40 years a team 9-0 or better was a 3-point 'dog vs. a three-loss team: 1990 Wyoming. Lost 17-8 at Colorado State.
P.J. Fleck has won each of the past six games outright in which his team has entered as an underdog.
Iowa has won its past six games in which it has been favored by a field goal or less (dating to 2015). The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in those six games, with the only non-cover a one-point win this season in Ames as a 1.5-point favorite.
Does it get better than this?
UMass (1-9) faces Northwestern (1-8) this week. There were two games last year featuring teams that brought 1-8 or worse records through nine games into a game. WKU (1-9) beat UTEP (1-9), and Bowling Green (1-8) beat Central Michigan (1-9) last year. The only time a team 1-8 or worse was favored by more than 20 vs. an FBS opponent was 1994; 1-8 Georgia Tech lost to 2-8 Wake Forest 20-13 as a 23-point favorite. The Wildcats are around a 40-point favorite this week -- and have scored 38 points in their past five games combined.
You laying 'em or taking 'em?
Since 1996, there have been two Power 5 games with a spread of at least 50 points: 1996 Nebraska -50 vs. Missouri (won by 44) and 2003 Oklahoma -53 vs. Baylor (won by 38). Ohio State is currently -52 vs. Rutgers.
Cyclones on the wrong side of close games
Iowa State has now lost three games this year by one or two points. In the past 15 years, only two other Power 5 teams had at least three losses by one or two points in a single season -- both were named Nebraska (2009 and 2015).
Anchors Aweigh?
In 2007, Navy snapped a 43-game losing streak to Notre Dame. Including that game, the past four times Notre Dame was a single-digit favorite over Navy, the Irish lost outright in three of those games. They won the other game by six as a 4-point favorite.
Baylor a historic 9-0 home 'dog
The only time in the past 40 years a team was 9-0 or better and at least a 7-point underdog on its home field was 1993 when Notre Dame beat Florida State 31-24 as a 7-point 'dog. All told, there have been six 9-0 or better teams that were a home 'dog. Four of the six won outright.
2015: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor (-2,5), lost by 10
2008: Utah vs. TCU (-2), won by 3
2005: Alabama vs. LSU (-3), lost by 3
1996: Florida State vs. Florida (-2,5), won by 3
1993: West Virginia vs. Miami (-5.5), won by 3
1993: Notre Dame vs. Florida State (-7), won by 7
Baylor currently is a 10-point home underdog against Oklahoma.
The 26 total 9-0 or better 'dogs in the regular season over the past 40 years (including road games) have gone 11-15 SU and 14-11-1 ATS.
In its last six games as an underdog, Baylor is 6-0 ATS with five outright wins. In 46 games as an underdog, Baylor coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS with 16 outright wins. In 18 games as a home 'dog, Rhule's teams are 13-5 ATS with seven outright wins.
Temple a home underdog again
In its past 17 games as a home underdog, Temple is 13-4 ATS (2-1 this year) with eight outright wins.
Spartans have been a cover machine lately vs. Michigan
Michigan State is 10-1 ATS with eight outright wins in its past 11 games with Michigan.
Georgia perspective this weekend
In the past 20 years, there have been 10 top-5 teams favored by a field goal or less on the road vs. a team ranked outside the top 10. The 10 have gone 2-8. The only two to win: 2016 Ohio State at Oklahoma and 2009 Cincinnati at Pitt.
Utah dominant since loss
Since losing at USC, Utah has won and covered all five of its games, winning by an average of 25.6 PPG.
Indiana, we're all for you ...
Indiana is 1-48 in its past 49 road games vs. ranked Big Ten teams. However, the Hoosiers have covered three straight and seven of their past 10 in this spot.
Clemson has been crushing teams
Since the one-point win at North Carolina, Clemson has won its five games by an average of 41.6 PPG and covered vs. each FBS team its faced.
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11-14-2019, 12:34 PM
#1003
Best bets for Week 12 college football games
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the 12th full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 22-11-2 (4-0 last week)
Steele: 24-34 (2-3 last week)
Johnson: 31-23-1 (2-2 last week)
Kezirian: 37-29-1 (2-3 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Saturday's games
Ohio State Buckeyes (-52) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Kezirian: This will not be a pretty game, but the point spread makes it interesting. Ohio State has covered every single first-half spread this season, and I think the streak will continue in Piscataway. There is zero inclination that the Buckeyes will show mercy. After all, they attempted -- and converted -- an onside kick last week while leading 14-0 over Maryland as 42.5-point favorites. On top of that, they just lost their top ranking. Why would they start taking it easy?
Plus, Rutgers is awful. The Scarlet Knights rank in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I think this is a rout early, and I doubt Rutgers will score in the first half. Obviously, it's a bit of a risk, but there is no reason to think Rutgers can do anything on offense against Ohio State's first team. If the Buckeyes suffer a surprise turnover, Rutgers has made only two of five field goal attempts of 30-plus yards this season.
Pick: Ohio State -31.5 1H (William Hill)
Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars (-10.5)
Kezirian: This is a fantastic spot for the Cougars. Washington State returns home needing two wins for bowl eligibility, which means the Cougars have to beat both Stanford and Oregon State in Pullman before hitting the road for the Apple Cup. This could be a giant look-ahead spot for Stanford, with the Big Game against Cal looming next week. Wazzu's offense is solid, having scored 30-plus points against every opponent not named Utah or Cal (those defenses are the class of the conference). I expect the offense to be just fine against Stanford. The Cougars' defense is not that potent, but Stanford has issues offensively. The Cardinal mustered only 13 points at Colorado, which has arguably the conference's worst defense.
Pick: Washington State -10.5
Michigan State Spartans at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines (-13.5)
Kezirian: By now, you know the drill: I don't believe in Michigan State and have to continue fading the Spartans. Coming off a bye, Sparty had everything lined up last week but blew a fourth-quarter lead in a stunning loss to Illinois. I am obviously surprised the Spartans lost, but this squad is getting by on reputation. Now they must face a far superior team on the road. I realize clichés mandate one to throw out records in rivalry games, but I just do not see it. Michigan State has lost four straight because the Spartans are inept offensively and overrated defensively -- not because they aren't trying. They were certainly motivated to face ranked conference opponents in Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. I have to keep riding this train, even if it means backing a school that is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 meetings with Sparty.
Pick: Michigan -13.5
Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions (-14.5)
Kezirian: Most college football handicappers understand that this spot typically warrants a play against Penn State. Once an undefeated team with high aspirations suffers its first loss, that team usually allows it to cost another one the following week. I'm not sure Indiana can win in Happy Valley, but the Hoosiers have the chops to keep this within two touchdowns. Plus, the Nittany Lions have Ohio State looming next week, and that could enable them to still reach the CFP. Indiana is 7-2 and coming off a bye, so it's an ideal situation for the Hoosiers. I have to take the candy.
Pick: Indiana +14.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering Herd (-3.5)
Connelly: This line surprised me a bit. Louisiana Tech is smoking hot, having jumped from 96th to 63rd in SP+ the past six weeks and having gone 5-1-1 ATS since mid-September. Since a Week 6 bye, the Bulldogs have averaged 52 points per game, and though Marshall's D is rounding into form (20.4 points allowed per game in the past five), SP+ projects the Bulldogs as slight favorites (52% win probability), and I think I agree. It's scary going against a 2.5-point line, but when you've got the underdog picked straight up, that helps.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +3.5
West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas State Wildcats (-14)
Connelly: Vegas keeps underestimating KSU and overestimating WVU. The Wildcats have covered in four straight (even if they needed a kick-return score and some turnover luck), and the Mountaineers have covered once in their past six and are averaging fewer than 15 points per game in their past four. We can overdo it with short-term trend data sometimes, but that, combined with the SP+ projection (a 38-19 KSU win, which almost gives WVU's offense too much credit), pushes me over the top here. Wildcats roll.
Pick: Kansas State -14
Alabama Crimson Tide (-19) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Connelly: When Joe Moorhead-coached teams find matchup advantages, they make the most of them. When they don't ... they don't. Through most of two seasons in Starkville, Moorhead's Bulldogs are 2-8 against teams ranked in the SP+ top 25 and 10-2 against everyone else. In that time frame, Alabama has played six teams in what we'll call SP+'s second quadrant (teams ranked between 35th and 65th) and outscored them by an average of 51-20. If a Bama offense with a limping Tua Tagovailoa can put up 34 points on LSU, it can put up 45 on Mississippi State. SP+ projects a 24-point Bama win (43-19), and the friendly line gives extra confidence here. This is a little higher at Caesars but available at 17.5 at other shops.
Pick: Alabama -17.5
Kezirian: The Tide are very much alive for the CFP, and they know it. They also know style points are necessary. I'm sure last week's loss to LSU took a physical toll, but I also have faith that Nick Saban can keep the train on the tracks. He's the best in the business.
On the other side, Mississippi State is not a very good football team. Before beating Arkansas last week, the Bulldogs lost four straight to Auburn, Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M. All are justifiable losses, but none was by single digits. They also failed to cover in all four. There's nothing I've seen this season that would suggest Mississippi State can hang with Alabama. This should be a pretty one-sided game and could resemble what we saw Saturday, when Dabo Swinney threw a TD pass with 11 seconds left while leading by 39 points.
Pick: Alabama -17.5
USC Trojans (-6.5) at California Golden Bears
Connelly: This is a pure numbers pick. SP+ projects USC to win by 13, and the line is a very friendly -6.5. It's hard to trust USC too much, and Cal looked great for the first time in weeks on Saturday, so there's plenty of reason to hedge here. But the combination of SP+ confidence and a good number wins the day.
Pick: USC -6.5
UMass Minutemen at Northwestern Wildcats (-40.5)
Connelly: This is the most fascinating line of the week, and though I generally know better than to pick UMass to cover (1-9 ATS this season), I want some skin in the game here. Unless UMass is going to be held to negative points, a 40.5-point spread will require Northwestern to score at least 41 points. (I'm good at math.) The Wildcats have topped 15 points twice in 10 games and managed 30 against UNLV's 112th-ranked (per SP+) defense.
UMass, meanwhile, has held only one opponent to fewer than 44 points, and it was Akron, so that barely counts. This might be the most "resistible force vs. movable object" game of the season. I can't wait -- even if I already regret this pick.
Pick: UMass +40.5
Kezirian: This game certainly provides good gambling fodder, but I think there is some betting value. As soon as I saw the spread, I was inclined to take UMass and all those points. However, the Minutemen rank dead last of 130 FBS teams in yards per play allowed, and that's saying something, given that they haven't exactly been facing elite quarterbacks. They also rank dead last in defensive efficiency, which accounts for quality of opponent.
I'm still inclined to grab the points, but I think the best option is UMass over its team total. It starts with an inept Northwestern offense that ranks 119th in the country. A stalled drive or self-inflicted turnover could lead to a short field for the Minutemen. Keep in mind that this is a unit that scored five offensive touchdowns against UConn. I realize the Wildcats have a better defense, but at some point, Pat Fitzgerald will play his reserves.
Pick: UMass team total over 7.5 (DraftKings)
No. 19 Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones (-7)
Steele: Tom Herman is an outstanding 15-3 ATS as an underdog in his head-coaching career, including 11 outright upsets. Texas was banged up on defense this season but has slowly been getting some players back and last week had a 477-304 yardage edge versus Kansas State. Matt Campbell is another excellent underdog coach, but he's just 3-6 ATS in the role of home favorite the past two seasons. Texas has won the past three meetings, both straight up and ATS. Texas has a great shot at the outright win here but should at least stay within a touchdown.
ATS pick: Texas +7
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals (-2.5)
Steele: Central Michigan is 4-2 in the MAC, with its wins by 26 PPG, but minus-6 in turnovers in its two MAC losses. Tennessee transfer QB Quinten Dormandy has 11 TD passes and just four interceptions, and running backs Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis have combined to rush for 1,651 yards, a solid 6.2 yards per carry and 19 TDs, and they face a Ball State defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry in MAC play. Central has a strong rush defense allowing just 118 yards per game rush and 3.4 YPC. Versus three mutual opponents, Central is plus-223 yards per game, and Ball State is minus-45 yards per game. Central has already played at Wisconsin and Miami (Fla.), so it will not be intimidated by this home crowd.
ATS pick: Central Michigan +2.5
No. 1 LSU Tigers (-21, 65) at Ole Miss Rebels
Steele: LSU has finally exorcised the Alabama demon that haunted it through eight straight losses to the Tide. The Tigers deserve to be the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, with four wins over foes who were ranked in the top 10 at the time. Joe Burrow has just about wrapped up the Heisman Trophy after going 31-of-39 for 393 yards and three TDs against Alabama. LSU will have no trouble winning here, but this is an obvious letdown spot.
Ole Miss outgained Texas A&M 405-337 in its most recent SEC home game and should bring its A-game here after facing New Mexico State last week and with a bye on deck. The Rebels have the SEC's top rush offense, averaging 258 yards per game and 5.4 YPC in SEC play, which will help shrink the clock and keep this under the three-touchdown spread.
ATS pick: Ole Miss +21
Johnson: We cashed last week with John Rhys Plumlee laying 28 points against New Mexico State, and I'm going back to the well in the form of the over in this matchup against the country's No. 1 team. My true projection is 67.8, but I would be remiss not to account for the fact that the Tigers just upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa and could be inevitably flat traveling right back on the road to face a Rich Rodriguez Rebels offense that is flying under the radar nationally. I hope some of the potential lack of focus manifests itself on the defensive side of the ball for LSU and that future Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and the offense are having to play keep-up from the get-go.
Pick: Over 65
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (-10) at No. 13 Baylor Bears
Steele: Oklahoma's defense has started to show some cracks, allowing 48 and 41 points, respectively, the past two games. The Sooners lost on the road to Kansas State and survived a 2-point conversion failure by Iowa State last week to escape with a one-point win. Lincoln Riley is 3-9-1 ATS as an away favorite in the regular season. Baylor has struggled the past two weeks dealing with unbeaten pressure as a favorite, but is an undefeated home underdog like Minnesota was last week to Penn State. Baylor is 8-2 ATS as a home 'dog the past nine years, and Matt Rhule is 19-8 ATS as a 'dog of 7.5 or more points.
ATS pick: Baylor +10
Virginia Tech Hokies (-5.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Steele: The Hokies were blown out at home against Duke 45-10 to fall to 0-2 in ACC play, and many wondered if they would make a bowl. Virginia Tech has come out with a vengeance since then, going 4-1 SU and ATS, including a win at Miami and a one-point loss at Notre Dame. Hendon Hooker has started three ACC games at QB for the Hokies, and they have averaged 40.3 PPG in those, including 36.3 in regulation. Georgia Tech has gained just 14 and 10 first downs in its two ACC home games and now takes on an inspired Virginia Tech defense that just held Wake Forest to 210 yards below its season average. The Hokies control their destiny in the ACC Coastal and will get a big road win here.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech -5.5
No. 8 Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes (-3)
Johnson: Minnesota deserves all of the accolades for pulling off an upset win over Penn State on Saturday. However, that doesn't mean we can't bet against the Gophers in Week 12. The Gophers are 5-0 in one-score games this season, but they've been fortunate late in these games, and though head coach P.J. Fleck has an edge over most of the other coaches he has faced in these situations, his team is still performing above expectation. Minnesota's strength of schedule ranks 56th, and Iowa's is seventh (the Hawkeyes are 1-3 in one-score games). Even against the Nittany Lions, Minnesota was ultimately outgained by 58 yards but had a two-turnover advantage. My raw projection is Iowa -4.3, and I'm happy to fade the Gophers off of arguably their biggest program win in 50 years on the road in Kinnick.
Pick: Iowa -3
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11-14-2019, 12:34 PM
#1004
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