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Monday 9-4-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Monday, September 4
8:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. GEORGIA TECH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia Tech is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia Tech's last 9 games
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Monday, September 4
Tennessee @ Georgia Tech
Game 213-214
September 4, 2017 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
95.646
Georgia Tech
95.107
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Tech
Even
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Tech
(+3); Under
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 1
Prepping for the option can be tough, but Tennessee has had more time, seeing as this is their opener. Vols’ offensive line has 111 returning starts, #2 experienced OL in country. Tennessee is 13-16 vs spread when favored under Jones- they’ve got 7 starters back on both sides of ball. Georgia Tech has 8 starters back on both sides, but has a new QB; Jackets are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 non-league games, 9-11 in last 20 games when getting points. Last two years, ACC teams are 14-9 vs spread when facing SEC opponents.
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Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech
Butch Jones’s fifth season as the head coach at the University of Tennessee is a critical one for the program and his tenure at the school. Jones has posted back-to-back nine-win seasons, but he’s been unable to win the SEC East during a four-year window that can be dubbed as the Dark Ages for the division.
Tennessee finished 9-4 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread last year, failing to win the East despite its nearly unquestioned status as the preseason favorite. As I’ve repeatedly said and written in recent months, UT’s 2016 campaign can be looked at two different ways.
On one end, the Volunteers’ 2-4 finish in their last six SEC games can partly be blamed on a wild rash of injuries that kept key players on the sidelines. There was also the double-overtime loss at Texas A&M that could’ve gone either way.
Viewed from a different angle, you could say Tennessee was lucky to have won at Georgia on a Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play. There was also the win vs. Florida thanks to a comeback from a 21-0 deficit late in the second quarter. In addition, UT captured a fortunate overtime victory vs. Appalachian State. The Mountaineers led by double digits at intermission and would’ve won in regulation if not for a missed extra point and a field goal.
Whatever the case, those in the media – and there are plenty of them – who think Jones’s job security is on solid footing are downright delusional. Jones owns a 30-21 record at UT, but he’s 14-18 in SEC play. On his watch, the Vols are winless in 11 games against Top-10 opponents and they’ve limped to a 6-15 mark versus Top-25 foes. Making matters worse, he’s already lost to Vanderbilt twice and is 0-4 against Will Muschamp.
It isn’t just the results on the field that have aggravated the rabid UT fan base. Jones maddeningly leaned on all sorts of excuses early in his tenure, constantly creating a narrative about how young and inexperienced his team was. Before his team’s road openers in his first three years, he would literally conduct interviews by explaining the stats -- percentages and all – about how many of his players would be getting on an airplane for the first time in their lives.
There was also his infamous ‘Champions of Life’ quote and his early exit from the postgame interview (before nearly all of the press core had arrived) following last year’s loss at Vandy. And now here we are on the eve of the 2017 opener with Jones seizing an opportunity to throw out a built-in excuse yet again.
“They already have an advantage on us because we were told they were inside the dome practicing with full pads for a two-hour practice (Tuesday),” Jones told the Associated Press.
Really, Butch? With his team poised to take on Georgia Tech at the brand-new Merceds-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Monday night, he’s worrying about the Yellow Jackets being able to practice at the venue? Unbelievable.
As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had Tennessee installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. The Yellow Jackets were available on the money line for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Tennessee returns 14 of 22 starters, seven on each side of the ball. But the Vols lost their three best playmakers in quarterback Josh Dobbs, running back Alvin Kamara and WR Josh Malone. They’ve also lost a pair of starters to season-ending injuries already.
Junior OT Chance Hall and junior LB Darrin Kirkland have gone down with knee injuries. Hall had started 13 games in the last two seasons. Kirkland will especially be missed this week against Paul Johnson’s run-oriented offense. Kirkland has 17 career starts to his credit. Despite missing five games with an ankle injury last year, he recorded 45 tackles, four tackles for a loss and one sack.
Junior QB Quinten Dormady is poised to make his first career start for UT. The former four-star recruit has appeared in 11 career games, but only in mop-up duty. Dormady completed 11-of-17 passes (64.7%) last year for 148 yards. He threw for 209 yards as a freshman with one TD pass and zero interceptions.
Dormady’s favorite target will be Jauan Jennings, a junior who has started 15 career games. Jennings had 40 receptions for 580 yards and seven TDs in 2016. Senior TE Ethan Wolf has made 35 career starts. He had 21 catches for 239 yards and two TDs last season. Josh Smith, who had 13 grabs for 97 yards and one TD in ’16, is listed as ‘questionable’ due to a collarbone injury.
UT’s defense gave up 28.8 points per game in ’16. This unit has its top five tacklers back and will need to be vastly improved for the Vols to hang around in the SEC East race. Senior safety Todd Kelly had a team-high 71 tackles and two interceptions in ’16.
Georgia Tech brings back 16 of 22 starters from a 9-4 team that beat Kentucky 33-18 as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ in the TaxSlayer Bowl. The Yellow Jackets went 3-0 against SEC foes, beating Georgia and Vanderbilt as well. They closed the ’16 campaign with four consecutive victories, including a 30-20 win at Virginia Tech as 14-point underdogs.
Johnson will turn to junior Matthew Jordan as his new starting QB. Jordan appeared in nine games last year, starting in the win at Virginia Tech. He ran for 121 yards and two TDs against the Hokies. For the season, Jordan rushed for 243 yards and six TDs while averaging 3.7 yards per carry. He completed 3-of-9 passes for 111 yards with one TD and one interception.
Johnson dismissed last year’s leading rusher from the team a few weeks ago. Dedric Mills rushed for 771 yards and 12 TDs with a 5.1 YPC average as a freshman, but he won’t be around for his sophomore season. Look for Clinton Lynch and Qua Searcy to get the most touches out of the backfield. Lynch ran for 415 yards and two TDs with an 11.2 YPC average in ’16, while Searcy had 273 rushing yards and two scores. Lynch also had 16 receptions for 490 yards and six TDs.
Georgia Tech’s defense gave up 24.5 PPG last year and brings back eight starters. Senior safety Corey Griffin registered 82 tackles, four TFL’s, one sack, three passes broken up and two interceptions.
These schools haven’t met since 1987 when the Yellow Jackets won a 29-15 decision.
Even though the game is being played in Atlanta, gamblers shouldn’t look at this as a road game for the Vols. They’ll probably have just as many fans in attendance as the Yellow Jackets.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
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R&R TOTALS
OVER 8 St Louis/San Diego
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Mikey Sports
Tennessee -3.5
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Atlantic Sports
Los Angeles Angels -145
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John Anthony Sports
Toronto Blue Jays +155
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High Stakes Syndicate
Kansas City Royals -140
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Hawkeye Sports
Toronto +150
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Platinum Plays
Texas Rangers w/Cashner +105 over Atlanta
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Sharp Bettor
(959) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (C MARTINEZ - R) VS (960) SAN DIEGO PADRES (L PERDOMO - R).
Play UNDER the total.
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#1 Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks +140
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Roz Wins
(979) TEXAS RANGERS (A CASHNER - R) VS (980) ATLANTA BRAVES (R DICKEY - R).
Play Texas.
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Totals4U
Houston/Seattle over 8.5
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Jim Feist
(977) MINNESOTA TWINS VS (978) TAMPA BAY RAYS.
Take: over the total.
Reason: Your free play for Monday, September 4, 2017 comes in baseball as Minnesota and the Rays clash in Tampa Bay. This is a good offensive park and Twins have been on an offensive tear. Minnesota is 12-2 over the total on astroturf. The Over is 12-3 in Alex Cobb's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams clash the over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings, 9-0 in this park. Play Minnesota/Tampa Bay Over the total.
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Mike Wynn
Arizona w/Ray +135 Over LA Dodgers
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 98
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 DEADLY BLACK EAGLE 3/1
# 8 STEVIE MAC 2/1
# 7 HARD KNOCKS ROCK 10/1
DEADLY BLACK EAGLE looks strong to best this field. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last competition. Looks to have a very good class edge based on the most recent company kept. With a solid 90 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. STEVIE MAC - She has to be given a chance given the quite good speed figures. Recent figures for the jockey - 25 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group. HARD KNOCKS ROCK - Conditioner has solid win rate (15 percent) at this distance and surface.
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
Camarero - Race 6
Quinella / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 37 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 4, 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 21 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * OLA ESMERALDA: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TORALEY'S TRICK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ratin g. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
OLA ESMERALDA
2/1
8/5
4
TORALEY'S TRICK
4/1
5/1
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