Originally Posted by
Can'tPickAWinner
Dr Bob
Air Force @ Michigan
Air Force (+23 ½) 16 MICHIGAN 35
These teams both play at a slow pace offensively and a game with fewer plays and possessions make it more challenging for a big favorite to cover the spread. Air Force is 6-0 ATS the last 25 years as an underdog of 21 points or more (4-0 under coach Calhoun) and all traditional option teams (Veer, Flexbone, Wishbone, I-bone but not read-option) are 61-36-2 ATS as dogs of 21 points or more since 1980 (including teams that previously ran the traditional option in the seasons in which they ran that offense). Aside from this being a game with significantly fewer plays than normal I think the Air Force option is better than their 1 returning starter would lead most to believe. Under coach Calhoun there is zero correlation to the number of returning starters and the quality of the defense in his 10 prior seasons. My ratings favor Michigan by just 19 points with the pace of the game taken into account.
Clemson @ Louisville
LOUISVILLE (+3) 30 Clemson 28
Clemson’s defense has been absolutely amazing so far this season, allowing an average of 4.5 points and 119 total yards per game at a miniscule 2.1 yards per play, which includes the 1.8 yppl that they yielded to what was supposed to be a good Auburn offense. However, Clemson will be facing a quarterback that transcends special and Lamar Jackson can make things happen even against the most talented defenses that execute well. Clemson defenders can be doing exactly what they’re supposed to be doing, which would lead to success against nearly every other offense, but that still doesn’t mean they’ll be able to keep Jackson from escaping and creating a big play with his arm or his legs. Last season Jackson led Louisville to a 63-20 romp over a very good Florida State defense and he led the Cardinals to 36 points in a 6 point loss to the Clemson team that went on to win the National Championship. Jackson is not immune to great defensive fronts, as he did struggle against both Houston and LSU, but it is safe to say that Louisville is relatively better against good defensive teams because of Jackson’s special talents.
Louisville also has a good defense that will challenge the Tigers and overall my ratings favor Clemson by just 1 point. I’ll actually call for the minor upset due to a 94-32-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that applies to Louisville.
Tulane @ Oklahoma
OKLAHOMA (-34) 41 Tulane 10
Oklahoma proved that they are an elite team by beating up on Ohio State in Columbus last week but given the excitement of that victory I don’t see how the Sooners’ defensive players will be fully focused on learning how to defend the option attack of Tulane. The option is a great equalizer of talent and option teams tend to be good as big underdogs for that reason. Tulane is in the second season of coach Willie Fritz’ offense and the Green Wave have a pretty decent defense that gave up just 5.4 yards per play last season and held Navy to 23 points last week in a 2-point loss as a double-digit underdog.
If Oklahoma does built a huge lead my guess is that Baker Mayfield will exit the game and they’ll turn to the rushing attack to close things out. The problem is that Oklahoma’s rushing attack doesn’t appear to be as good with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine now in the NFL. The Sooners have averaged just 4.3 yards per rushing play and gaining only 5.1 yprp against UTEP’s horrible run defense is alarming. Tulane has a solid run defense so I don’t expect Oklahoma to be able to run up the score by simply running the ball. This will also be a shorter game since Oklahoma has slowed their tempo this season and Tulane’s offensive tempo has always been slow. I like Tulane and the under.
Tennessee @ Florida
FLORIDA (-4) 28 Tennessee 21
Florida had an unplanned bye week last week due to hurricane Irma and it gave the players and coaches an extra week to put their opening game debacle against Michigan behind them. Florida’s offense still looks like an issue but Tennessee’s defense doesn’t look particularly good, as I rate that unit at just 0.1 yards per play better than average. I am impressed so far by Vols quarterback Quinten Dormady, who has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play but the Gators’ defense is strong and I project just 5.2 yards per play for Tennessee in this game. Overall my ratings favor Florida by 6 ½ points so I see some value with the Gators.
SMU @ TCU
TCU (-19½) 41 Southern Methodist 20
TCU usually bounces back to have good success after a down season under coach Gary Patterson and this year’s Horned Frogs squad looks good so far, ranking 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.9 yppl better than average defensively after last week’s good performance in their 28-7 win over Arkansas. SMU has scored an average of 56 points in two games against inferior defensive teams, SF Austin and North Texas, but their yardage numbers aren’t particularly impressive (6.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppl to an average team) and the Mustangs’ defense is worse than average and allowed 6.7 yards per play to a traditionally impotent North Texas offense last week. My preseason ratings would have favored TCU by 21 points and my updated ratings make it 21½ points. Not much value here.
Oregon St. @ Washington St.
WASHINGTON STATE (-21) 44 Oregon State 21
Oregon State has been even worse than I thought they’d be when I played them under 5 wins prior to the season. I suspected that the offense wouldn’t be as good as most people thought it would be but it’s been a pleasant surprise that the Beavers’ defense is even worse than projected so far. Oregon State’s secondary has allowed 65% completions and 9.6 yards per pass play in their three games while allowing 8.0 yppp or more in each game (including against FCS team Portland, who they barely beat). Not being able to defend the pass is usually a problem when facing a team that throws the ball 73% of the time. Washington State quarterback Luke Falk has been upgrade to probable and he should put up huge numbers against the Beavers while a solid Cougars’ stop unit limits the Beavers. Oregon State’s poor start has certainly been reflected in this huge line, but my ratings favor WSU by 23½ points so I’d still lean with the Cougars at -21 or less.
Colorado St. @ Alabama
ALABAMA (-28½) 44 Colorado State 13
Colorado State hasn’t been as good offensively as projected and the Rams managed just 3 points in their only game against a good defense (Colorado). The 58 points that the Rams scored against Oregon State in their opener doesn’t look quite as good now considering how bad the Beavers’ defense has been through 3 games, and Alabama should be able to contain that attack. My preseason ratings would have favored Alabama by 31 points and my updated ratings favor the Tide by 31½ points. Nick Saban likes to beat up on his former assistants so I’m not sure that he’ll call off the dogs with a big lead against Mike Bobo’s Rams.
Texas @ USC
USC (-15½) 42 Texas 24
USC is coming off an impressive 42-24 win over a very good Stanford team and the Trojans actually didn’t play poorly in their closer than expected 48-31 opening day win over Western Michigan. Western Michigan is no slouch and USC averaged 7.9 yards per play and allowed just 5.0 yppl in that game. Last week the edge against Stanford was 8.6 yppl to 6.3 yppl, which is astounding given the level of the Cardinal defense. Texas is a bit of a mystery right now, as the Longhorns gave up 51 points and 8.7 yppl to Maryland in their opener and then pitched a 56-0 shutout against San Jose State last week. I do believe that the Texas defense is good and that the Longhorns’ offense is better than average but my ratings favor USC by 17½ points.
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