Thursday 9-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 7

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 7-8


Claiming $8,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 5:30P
FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. EL ROBO COP is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EL ROBO COP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AB ALLARDE HEAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ANTONIO M: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5
EL ROBO COP
10/1

3/1
4
ABALLARDE HEAT
2/1

6/1
1
ANTONIO M
3/1

8/1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:51pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating: 4

#2 FURRFIELD GIRL (ML=9/5)


FURRFIELD GIRL - This horse should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could wire the field. This thoroughbred probably isn't going to sit chilly. She should bust out of the gate and be one of the first to hit that tight turn. Watch for her down the lane. The 61 last race rating looks mighty good in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FORINT'S CASTLE (ML=3/1), #9 BRENDA J (ML=9/2), #4 CHARITABLE LUCK (ML=6/1),

FORINT'S CASTLE - Doesn't look to have enough positive aspects to justify the price. BRENDA J - I find it hard to play this mount this time out. Make her show you something in a short distance event before you wager on her in a race of 4 1/2 furlongs. Doubtful that the speed rating she recorded on August 24th will hold up in this clash. CHARITABLE LUCK - Trying to beat this one this time at the reward of 6/1.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - FURRFIELD GIRL - Watch out for this filly. Dono gives her Lasix for the 2nd straight time. My historical data says this horse should perform well today.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 FURRFIELD GIRL to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [4,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Delaware Park - Race #9 - Post: 5:15pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: 4

#7 WANNA FOLLOW ME (ML=4/1)


WANNA FOLLOW ME - This gelding hasn't won in his last three starts, but he did win on Jun 10th against better at 1 mile. Serpa and Bedard partnered up are a punter's friend. You have to bet this equine at a track he likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race. Faced tougher last time out at Monmouth Park. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of contenders in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 THEYALLCOMEHOME (ML=5/2), #3 DA WINNER IS (ML=3/1), #5 FORT BOONESBOROUGH (ML=6/1),

THEYALLCOMEHOME - No pace in this field to help set-up his closing kick. DA WINNER IS - This gelding likely won't be on the money at the wire. FORT BOONESBOROUGH - Awfully hard to play this steed when he hasn't been showing any gumption of late. This less than sharp equine ran a mediocre speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - WANNA FOLLOW ME - My calculated info would suggest that some type of wager is indeed necessary given the lone speed that this horse should demonstrate against this group.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #7 WANNA FOLLOW ME to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 RORY MOR 6/1

# 1 CHICO GRANDE 9/5

# 3 ZABABA 7/2

RORY MOR is my choice. The odds may be right on this horse. Has been running strongly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. CHICO GRANDE - Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been very strong - 80 avg - of late. Will likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the contest. ZABABA - Shows reliable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses in this race. Recorded a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 8

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $1 Super High 5


Maiden Claiming $50,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 80 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 5:28P
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $40,000 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Stalker. JOHNNY RAY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JOHNNY RAY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BIG BAD GARY: Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SOUTHERN WARLORD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SEND A BUCK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5
JOHNNY RAY
5/2

7/2
4
BIG BAD GARY
5/1

6/1
7
SOUTHERN WARLORD
7/2

6/1
2
SEND A BUCK
5/1

9/1

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Handicapped by Valuline at Penn National

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Penn National, Race 5 (Thursday September 14, 2017)

CIRCUS MUSIC
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

PEN-5 1mile DIRT Seven Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 F/M 3YUP $11,400
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

6 CIRCUS MUSIC 7/5 42% 7/5 Strong Favorite icon
7 DYNAFLEET 5/2 22% 7/2

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9350 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE EASTER SUNDAY 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 FOREST MIST 2/1

# 9 BURNING MONEY 12/1

# 3 PLASKA 7/2

FOREST MIST looks to be a formidable contender. He has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the strongest in this group of horses in this race. Trainer has strong win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface. Has strong early lick and should fare well versus this group. BURNING MONEY - In fine fettle, and coming back almost immediately again this time out. Should be given a shot - I like the figs from the last outing. PLASKA - He has a good opportunity for this event as trainer, Willis, has strong win clip with horses going this distance. Ought to be carefully examined based on the quite good speed fig earned in the last outing.

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Vernon Croy

Detroit/White sox
Over 10

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and the Tigers have hit .286 as a team lifetime against Shields, with an OBP of .336. Shields has an ERA of 5.45 in day games this season and an ERA of 5.66 over 11 starts since the All-Star break. Bell has struggled with an ERA of 7.18 since the All-Star break, and this is just his 3rd start out of the bullpen. Opponents have hit .361 against Bell over his two starts this season with an OBP of .452, and he has an ERA of 6.05 in day games this season. Play the OVER

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, September 14, 2017

(955) ATLANTA BRAVES VS (956) WASHINGTON NATIONALS.

Take: UNDER.

Reason: Your free play for Thursday, September 14, 2017 comes in baseball as Atlanta and Washington clash in the NL. Washington is a big park and a weak Atlanta offense is in town. Mike Foltynewicz is throwing well, allowing 1, 2 and 3 runs his last three starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Foltynewicz's last 5 starts vs. the National League East. Washington is on a 19-7-6 run under the total. Tanner Roark has allowed 3 runs or less in 7 straight starts. Roark (12-9) allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out six batters through six innings during Thursday's win over Philadelphia. The team is 8-1 under the total when he starts. Play Atlanta/Washington Under the total.

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MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Cincinnati-Houston UNDER (Game 102).

Edges - Bengals: 3-8 UNDER on Thursdays… Texans: 4-7 UNDER in this series, including 0-4 UNDER the last four… With the Bengals having gone 0-4 UNDER in Game Two the last four years, we recommend a 1* play in the UNDER total in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

THurs Chi WhiteSox w/Shields +110

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CHRIS JORDAN

Nailed the Philadelphia Phillies last night for my 400♦ winner, and tonight I'm playing them against the Miami Marlins as my free play.

There are a number of factors that do it for me with this game, especially with the Phils catching the dog price.

First of all, without trying to make light of the situation with Hurricane Irma, I don't know how any team from the Miami area can focus right now. So when the Marlins left South Beach after their series with the Washington Nationals, they had no idea what was looming. To see it on a TV screen has to cloud thinking and have them worried about loved ones.

Second, the Marlins have lost four in a row and nine of 10, they're now 11 1/2 games back in the National League wild card race and they just don't appear to have life in their game any longer.

And third, while the Marlins are the second-best hitting road team in baseball, they're hitting just .235 in September - the sixth-worst batting average in the majors.

Things have fallen apart for the Fish.

Take Philadelphia in this one.

3* PHILLIES

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BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Thursday, Sept. 14 is:

Detroit (Bell) over Chicago (Shields).

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Pure Lock

NFL CINCINNATI ‑6

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 14

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NEW MEXICO (1 - 1) at BOISE ST (1 - 1) - 9/14/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 133-97 ATS (+26.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 133-97 ATS (+26.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-1 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 3

Trend Report

Thursday, September 14

8:00 PM
NEW MEXICO vs. BOISE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Mexico's last 6 games
New Mexico is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Boise State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Mexico
Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Mexico

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NCAAF

Week 3

Thursday’s game
Quick turnaround for Boise State squad whose OT loss at Washington State didn’t end until 2:40am Saturday night. Broncos won seven of last eight games with New Mexico, but covered only one of last six; Lobos won their last visit here, as a 31-point underdog. New Mexico was upset at home by New Mexico State LW; Lobos have a senior QB (27 starts)- since 2013, they are 12-7 vs spread as a road underdog. Boise is 2-10-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite.

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Preview: New Mexico at Boise State
When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, September 14, 2017
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

Overall Team Offense

The Boise State Broncos are ranked 85 on offense, averaging 381.0 yards per game. The Broncos are averaging 157.5 yards rushing and 223.5 yards passing so far this season.
The New Mexico Lobos are ranked 42 on offense, averaging 455.5 yards per game. The Lobos are averaging 217.5 yards rushing and 238.0 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

The Boise State Broncos are 1-0 at home this season, 0-0 against conference opponents and 1-1 against non-conference opponents.
At home the Broncos are averaging 24.0 scoring, and holding teams to 13.0 points scored on defense.
The New Mexico Lobos are 0-0 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents and 1-1 against non-conference opponents.
On the road, the Lobos are averaging 0.0 scoring, and holding teams to 0.0 points scored on defense.

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Trends - New Mexico at Boise State

ATS Trends
New Mexico

Lobos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Lobos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.
Lobos are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Lobos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Boise State

Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games.

OU Trends
New Mexico

Under is 4-1 in Lobos last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Lobos last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 7-2 in Lobos last 9 conference games.
Over is 6-2 in Lobos last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 14-5 in Lobos last 19 games on fieldturf.
Over is 19-7 in Lobos last 26 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-2 in Lobos last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 12-5 in Lobos last 17 games overall.
Over is 11-5 in Lobos last 16 games in September.

Boise State

Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games on fieldturf.
Under is 11-3 in Broncos last 14 home games.
Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-4 in Broncos last 13 games following a straight up loss.

Head to Head

Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.