Friday 9-15-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:32 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $14,000.00 CLAIMING $26,000.00 PURSE

#3 MAKEALITTLELOVE
#2 MADAM AAMOURA
#6 SUMMER OF JOY
#1 CAUSEWAY CUTIE

#3 MAKEALITTLELOVE qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a class drop (-7), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last five starts, winning in both her last start (facing better company in that race), as well as in her 4th race back. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Michael Maker send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 51% of nearly 140 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MADAM AAMOURA is both the overall speed and pace profile leader, and has hit the board in each of her last five "adventures," with three of those "board hit efforts" also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SCORECARD HARRY 5/2

# 2 SPARTAN EMPEROR 9/5

# 1 LEFT THE GALAXY 5/1

SCORECARD HARRY looks very good to best this field. Looks solid for the conditions of this race today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races recently. Recent figures for the jockey - 20 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field. Earned a sound Equibase speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. SPARTAN EMPEROR - He has recorded quite good figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group of horses in this race. Navarro will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early here. LEFT THE GALAXY - Risk takers should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses in this race. Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 2:44pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: 3

#5 TUESDAYS SUPERNOVA (ML=4/1)
#4 IRISH LUCK (ML=8/5)
#1 MISTY BAY (ML=3/1)


TUESDAYS SUPERNOVA - A wise man taught me to invest in the lone speed horse. Take a look at this horse. This filly is in good physical condition. Ran third on Aug 24th. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should perform well today. IRISH LUCK - Took a significant drop in class rating last out at Santa Rosa. Returning to a similar class right here. I'd expect a good performance. MISTY BAY - I like this filly. Has the uppermost earnings per start in this one. A filly like this one, almost always in the top three, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (63-70-78) make this one a powerful contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PADAWON (ML=5/2),

PADAWON - This animal doesn't have a champion's mental state. Time-and-again finishes near the winner. This stretch-runner looks to have little chance without a speed duel on the top end.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 TUESDAYS SUPERNOVA to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge

Lethbridge - Race 3

Exactor / Triactor


Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $4,050 • Post: 6:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. (WINNERS OF 3 RACES PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HEBER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HEBER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. THISISMYSTORY: Ho rse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. PRAIRIE PLAN: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. CARSON'S FIREBALL: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2
HEBER
4/1

3/1
4
THISISMYSTORY
2/1

5/1
5
PRAIRIE PLAN
7/1

8/1
3
CARSON'S FIREBALL
9/5

9/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) $1 Pick Three (Races 1-2-3) / $0.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5)


Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 2:00P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TIKI BAR LOGIC: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ARROWSPHERE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. HOT BLOODED GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DANUSKA'S MY GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IB PROSPECTIN G: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6
TIKI BAR LOGIC
7/2

6/1
1
ARROWSPHERE
6/1

6/1
2
HOT BLOODED GIRL
2/1

7/1
3
DANUSKA'S MY GIRL
5/2

7/1
5
IB PROSPECTING
7/2

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:54pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 81

Rating: 4

#6 MAGIC HARBOR (ML=8/1)
#8 PLEASE PLAY AGAIN (ML=10/1)


MAGIC HARBOR - Last time out, finished eleventh on a sloppy track at Penn National. Will do better in this field. This horse brings in a lot of cash per start. At the top in this affair. PLEASE PLAY AGAIN - This horse ran off the board at Penn National last time around the track on a sloppy track. He should improve right here under normal track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 PUGET SOUND (ML=3/1), #7 RED WARRIOR (ML=7/2), #2 DEVILKNOWSMYNAME (ML=9/2),

PUGET SOUND - Hard to wager on a steed that lays up for a long time then doesn't finish in the money off the long breather. RED WARRIOR - This was a live one, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to be a little leery of this animal. DEVILKNOWSMYNAME - 9/2 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when examining the most recent outings. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable challenger.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 MAGIC HARBOR to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 74

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 BAYTAC 15/1

# 4 RARELY MAKES IT GOOD 3/1

# 6 CHUDA BACKA 5/1

BAYTAC is the strongest wager in this contest and is a solid value-based wager given the 15/1 line. With Torres getting the mount, watch out for this racer. RARELY MAKES IT GOOD - With a sound 69 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Almanza has well above average profits at this distance/surface. CHUDA BACKA - Has to be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last race. With a reliable 61 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, September 15

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MASSACHUSETTS (0 - 3) at TEMPLE (1 - 1) - 9/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against MASSACHUSETTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ILLINOIS (2 - 0) at S FLORIDA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
S FLORIDA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at UTEP (0 - 2) - 9/15/2017, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 54-87 ATS (-41.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARIZONA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 3

Trend Report

Friday, September 15

7:00 PM
ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Illinois is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Illinois is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. TEMPLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Massachusetts's last 6 games
Massachusetts is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Temple is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Temple is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. TEXAS EL PASO
Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Texas El Paso is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 3

Friday’s games
Temple was outgunned 402-353 in narrow 16-13 win on I-AA Villanova last week, after they lost 49-16 at Notre Dame the week before. Owls had only 79 rushing yards LW; they’re 7-2 as home favorites the last two years, but this team has far less experience than in recent years. UMass is 0-3 already, losing 38-28 at I-A newcomer Coastal Carolina in their only road game. Minutemen are 8-8 as road underdogs under Whipple. Temple (-13) edged UMass 25-23 at home in last meeting, two years ago.

Former Bucs’ assistant Lovie Smith returns to Tampa with his Illinois team that is 2-0 with home wins over Ball State/Western Kentucky. Since 2012, Illini is 6-15 as a road underdog; they were 2-2 LY, in Smith’s first year as coach. South Florida’s routines have obviously been disrupted by Hurricane Irma; Bulls are 2-0, with a 42-22 road win at San Jose State after they fell behind 16-0 early. USF has 16 returning starters, a senior QB (28 starts). Bulls are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as a home favorite.

Arizona lost at home to Houston LW, their first I-A game. Wildcats are 4-4 as road favorites under RichRod. Arizona’s OL has 89 returning starts, which makes last week’s loss more disappointing. UTEP gave up 306 rushing yards in a 31-14 home loss to Rice LW, after they got crushed by Oklahoma before that. Miners are 12-11-1 vs spread at home under Kugler. UTEP’s qb Metz has 14 career starts. Wildcats have 7 starters back on both sides of the ball; their junior QB has 11 starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

Friday, September 15

Massachusetts @ Temple

Game 105-106
September 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
70.750
Temple
82.828
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Temple
by 12
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 15
52
Dunkel Pick:
Massachusetts
(+15); Under

Illinois @ South Florida

Game 107-108
September 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois
82.559
South Florida
90.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 8 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Florida
by 18
56
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois
(+18); Over

Arizona @ UTEP

Game 109-110
September 15, 2017 @ 10:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
82.518
UTEP
62.297
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 20
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 23
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UTEP
(+23); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Friday, September 15

Friday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Illinois at South Florida

Illinois Fighting Illini at South Florida Bulls (-17, 55.5)

Illinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and will face its most difficult challenge yet when coach Lovie Smith’s team visits a familiar place to take on well-rested No. 21 South Florida on Friday night. Smith returns to the site of his last job with NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the Bulls had last week’s game at Connecticut cancelled due to complications with Hurricane Irma.

The Fighting Illini knocked off Ball State and Western Kentucky while giving up a total of 28 points in their first two contests with a young defense that will be tested against an experienced team that has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games. “They’re being put in situations that are new to them each week,” Smith told reporters of his defense after a 20-7 victory over Western Kentucky last week. “But, again, they’ve stepped up to the plate, and they’re taking advantage of it.” USF was not really sharp in its first two games, despite putting up 73 points combined and winning by an average of 17, but senior quarterback Quinton Flowers leads the way for a talented offense that can beat foes with the run and the pass. The Bulls did not practice over the weekend after the UConn game was canceled and will have to brush off some rust as they prepare for their second-to-last non-conference matchup of the season.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: South Florida opened as 14-point home favorites and that number has jumped to -17. The total hit the betting boards at 51 and jumped all of the way up to 55.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Illinois - DB J. Dunlap (Questionable, Leg), RB R. Corbin (Questionable, Undisclosed), OL D. Kramer (Questionable, Leg), OL J. Fagan (Questionable, Undisclosed), RB D. Brown (Questionable, Undisclosed), TE N. Echard (Doubful, Knee), DL J. Crawford (Out, Suspension), LB J. Hansen (Out For Season, Knee).

South Florida - OL G. Bethel (Questionable, Leg), WR R. Bronson (Out For Season, Shoulder).

ILLINOIS (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Three freshmen have started on defense for Smith’s squad, including linemen Bobby Roundtree (three sacks) and Isaiah Gay (one sack), while junior linebacker Del’Shawn Phillips leads the way with 22 tackles and a half-sack. Junior wide receiver Mike Dudek, who has missed the last two seasons after suffering two torn ACLs in his left knee, is off to a strong start with eight catches for 93 yards and a score to lead the receiving corps. Junior quarterback Chayce Crouch has thrown for 252 yards with one touchdown strike and two interceptions in the first two games while freshman running back Mike Epstein has rushed for 165 yards and two TDs.

SOUTH FLORIDA (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Flowers threw for 398 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception in the first two games, but his accuracy has not been as sharp (55.6 completion percentage) as in the past. The Bulls would like to get their rushing attack going again after managing just 153 yards in the close win against FCS member Stony Brook last time out, and will look for senior D’Ernest Johnson to return to his opening game form (99 yards on the ground) after gaining 15 on Sept. 2. USF’s defense will still have to get better but linebackers Nico Sawtelle and Auggie Sanchez lead the way for the Bulls, who have picked off five passes in two games.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 non-conference games.
* Over is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 home games.

CONSENSUS: The underdog Illini are getting 66 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 56 percent of the totals wagers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:00 PM ET, Friday, September 15, 2017
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Preview: Illinois at South Florida
Gracenote
Sep 12, 2017

Illinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and will face its most difficult challenge yet when coach Lovie Smith’s team visits a familiar place to take on well-rested No. 21 South Florida on Friday night. Smith returns to the site of his last job with NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the Bulls had last week’s game at Connecticut cancelled due to complications with Hurricane Irma.

The Fighting Illini knocked off Ball State and Western Kentucky while giving up a total of 28 points in their first two contests with a young defense that will be tested against an experienced team that has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games. “They’re being put in situations that are new to them each week,” Smith told reporters of his defense after a 20-7 victory over Western Kentucky last week. “But, again, they’ve stepped up to the plate, and they’re taking advantage of it.” USF was not really sharp in its first two games, despite putting up 73 points combined and winning by an average of 17, but senior quarterback Quinton Flowers leads the way for a talented offense that can beat foes with the run and the pass. The Bulls did not practice over the weekend after the UConn game was canceled and will have to brush off some rust as they prepare for their second-to-last non-conference matchup of the season.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: USF -18

ILLINOIS (2-0): Three freshmen have started on defense for Smith’s squad, including linemen Bobby Roundtree (three sacks) and Isaiah Gay (one sack), while junior linebacker Del’Shawn Phillips leads the way with 22 tackles and a half-sack. Junior wide receiver Mike Dudek, who has missed the last two seasons after suffering two torn ACLs in his left knee, is off to a strong start with eight catches for 93 yards and a score to lead the receiving corps. Junior quarterback Chayce Crouch has thrown for 252 yards with one touchdown strike and two interceptions in the first two games while freshman running back Mike Epstein has rushed for 165 yards and two TDs.

SOUTH FLORIDA (2-0): Flowers threw for 398 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception in the first two games, but his accuracy has not been as sharp (55.6 completion percentage) as in the past. The Bulls would like to get their rushing attack going again after managing just 153 yards in the close win against FCS member Stony Brook last time out, and will look for senior D’Ernest Johnson to return to his opening game form (99 yards on the ground) after gaining 15 on Sept. 2. USF’s defense will still have to get better but linebackers Nico Sawtelle and Auggie Sanchez lead the way for the Bulls, who have picked off five passes in two games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Flowers is tied with Andre Hall for the second-most rushing yards in school history at 2,731, and owns 50 career TD passes.

2. Illinois senior WR Malik Turner boasts seven receptions for 70 yards and has caught at least one pass in 22 straight games.

3. South Florida senior WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hauled in 10 passes for 106 yards in the first two contests.

PREDICTION: South Florida 34, Illinois 21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:00 PM ET, Friday, September 15, 2017
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Preview: Massachusetts at Temple
Gracenote
Sep 12, 2017

After two less-than-ideal performances to start its season, Temple desperately needs a quality performance Friday when winless Massachusetts comes to town. The Owls, coming off a 10-win campaign, were pounded at Notre Dame in their opener before squeaking by FCS member Villanova last weekend.

Temple needed a late field goal to get past Villanova, 16-13, although first-year coach Geoff Collins was hardly feeling any relief after defeating the Owls' city rival. “If you look around college football, I don’t think there is any sense of relief,” he said to reporters after the win. “You beat a really good football team, you are going to celebrate and be happy and that is the way we look at it.” The Owls defeated the Minutemen in a 25-23 thriller in 2015 and are hoping for another error-free performance by sophomore quarterback Logan Marchi. UMass, which has not won more than three games in a season since 2011, is already 0-3 on the young campaign.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU. LINE: Temple -14.5

ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (0-3): UMass gave up 38 points in each of its first two games before the defense stabilized - although the offense struggled - in last week's 17-7 setback against Old Dominion. Andrew Ford was sacked eight times, although he still found Andy Isabella five times for 105 yards and a score. Senior defensive lineman Ali Ali-Musa notched a career-high 15 tackles in the loss.

ABOUT TEMPLE (1-1): Marchi has not thrown an interception through two games and has completed 56.5 percent of his passes for 519 yards with two scores. Ryquell Armstead, coming off a season in which he averaged 5.9 yards per rush, is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry and still is seeking his first touchdown of 2017. Keith Kirkwood leads the team in catches (eight) and yards (121), although Ventell Bryant, who missed the opener with a hamstring injury, is considered Temple's most dangerous wide receiver.

EXTRA POINTS

1. As defensive coordinator at Florida, Collins' squad held UMass to 187 total yards of offense in a 2016 meeting.

2. Bryant needs six catches and 76 receiving yards to move into the Owls' all-time top 10 in both categories.

3. Temple is 10-for-31 on third-down conversions.

PREDICTION: Temple 33, Massachusetts 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 10:15 PM ET, Friday, September 15, 2017
Where: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Preview: Arizona at UTEP
Gracenote
Sep 13, 2017

Arizona and UTEP already have injury issues at quarterback heading into their showdown on Friday at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Tex. Arizona's Brandon Dawkins left early in the fourth quarter of a 19-16 loss to Houston on Saturday and returned for the final minutes but remained ineffective while UTEP's Ryan Metz sustained a shoulder injury in a 31-14 setback against Rice, leaving him questionable This week.

Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez told a local radio station on Monday that Dawkins remained the starter, even though he was "a little nicked up" after losing two second-half fumbles in the Houston game, including one that resulted in a safety. Khalil Tate replaced Dawkins early in the fourth quarter but was intercepted with 3:49 remaining after Arizona had reached the Houston 32-yard line. Metz was injured late in the game against Rice and Mark Torrez came in for UTEP's final offensive play, but coach Sean Kugler told reporters on Monday that Zack Greenlee would start against Arizona if Metz was unavailable. Greenlee, a senior, started four games for the Miners last season and seven over two campaigns at Fresno State.


TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Arizona -20

ABOUT ARIZONA (1-1): The Wildcats may opt to use redshrit freshman running back J.J. Taylor a bit more against UTEP and limit the amount of contact to Dawkins. Taylor averaged 5.1 yards on 17 carries against Houston, and his two receptions gave him 10 more touches than he had in the season-opening 62-24 win against Northern Arizona. Taylor, who sustained a season-ending broken ankle in the fourth game last campaign, was a workhorse in high school as he registered 2,290 rushing yards and 44 touchdowns during his senior year at Centennial High School in Corona, Calif.

ABOUT UTEP (0-2): The Miners definitely will be without starting right tackle Greg Long, who sustained a season-ending broken left leg against Rice, and that will further hamper a running game that has averaged just 2.2 yards per carry through the first two games. Walter Dawn has done his part, however, rushing for 80 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries this season. Dawn's already made a name for himself with the Miners, scoring three touchdowns in a game last season to become the first UTEP freshman to accomplish that feat since 1985.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Arizona S Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles has recorded three interceptions in the first two games, matching the total from his first two seasons.

2. Arizona freshmen defenders have accounted for 46.1 percent of the tackles through the first two games this season.

3. Kugler is one of 21 coaches in the FBS who began this season at his alma mater.

PREDICTION: Arizona 38, UTEP 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Illinois at No. 21 South Florida

ATS Trends
Illinois

Fighting Illini are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Fighting Illini are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Fighting Illini are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Fighting Illini are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
Fighting Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

South Florida

Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulls are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Bulls are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Bulls are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Bulls are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bulls are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week.
Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

OU Trends
Illinois

Under is 4-0 in Fighting Illini last 4 games following a bye week.
Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 non-conference games.
Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 games in September.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Illini last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Fighting Illini last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 19-7 in Fighting Illini last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 24-9 in Fighting Illini last 33 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Fighting Illini last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-3 in Fighting Illini last 10 games following a straight up win.

South Florida

Under is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Over is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a bye week.
Over is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 10-4 in Bulls last 14 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 11-5 in Bulls last 16 games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Massachusetts at Temple

ATS Trends
Massachusetts

Minutemen are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Minutemen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Minutemen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Minutemen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Temple

Owls are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Owls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Owls are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Owls are 38-13-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Owls are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 vs. INDEP.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Owls are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Owls are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games following a straight up win.

OU Trends
Massachusetts

Over is 5-0 in Minutemen last 5 road games.
Over is 6-1 in Minutemen last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Minutemen last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Minutemen last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Minutemen last 5 Friday games.
Over is 4-1 in Minutemen last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Minutemen last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Temple

Under is 4-0 in Owls last 4 games on grass.
Under is 7-0 in Owls last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 10-1 in Owls last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 6-1 in Owls last 7 vs. INDEP.
Under is 12-2 in Owls last 14 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Owls last 6 games following a straight up win.
Under is 8-2 in Owls last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 6-2 in Owls last 8 games overall.
Under is 6-2 in Owls last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 9-3 in Owls last 12 home games.
Under is 5-2 in Owls last 7 Friday games.
Over is 5-2 in Owls last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 7-3 in Owls last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Arizona at Texas El Paso

ATS Trends
Arizona

Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.
Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Wildcats are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in September.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Wildcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. CUSA.
Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Wildcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Texas El Paso

Miners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Miners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Miners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
Miners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
Miners are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Miners are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Miners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Miners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Miners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Miners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Miners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

OU Trends
Arizona

Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games on turf.
Over is 8-3 in Wildcats last 11 games in September.
Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 road games.
Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 Friday games.
Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 non-conference games.
Over is 19-9 in Wildcats last 28 games overall.

Texas El Paso

Over is 4-1 in Miners last 5 games overall.
Under is 12-4 in Miners last 16 games on turf.
Under is 6-2 in Miners last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 11-4 in Miners last 15 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 12
Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 12
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 12
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 12
-- Home team posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 12
-- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 12

Analysis

In one of the most entertaining games of the season, Calgary (9-1-1) posted a comeback victory thanks to the arm of Bo Levi Mitchell, edging provincial rival Edmonton (7-4). Despite the 25-22 win, the Stampeders were unable to cover - their first non-cover since July 14 in Montreal, their only loss of the season. For the third time in four games it was an 'under' result.

The West Division continues to play well, or at least much, much better than the East Division. All teams in the West are .500 or above, even Saskatchewan (5-5). All teams in the East are at least three games under .500, and only Ottawa (4-7-1) has covered more games than they have not. Everyone in the East except for the RedBlacks has lost at least three games on the road, too.

Team Betting Notes

-- Hamilton (2-8) won for the second consecutive game, topping Ottawa. After an 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS start, the Tiger Cats have managed a 2-0 SU/ATS mark. It's mainly because their defense has improved. After allowing 31 or more points in each of their past eight, the Ti-Cats have given up 22 in each of their two wins. After a 5-1 'over' run, the 'under' is also 3-0-1 across the past four.

-- Despite their hot run, the Tiger Cats are still 1-8-2 ATS across their past 11 home games and 4-13-2 ATS in the past 19 overall. Things do not look to get much better this weekend with Saskatchewan visiting, as the Riders are 25-10-1 ATS across the past 36 in this series.

-- Ottawa remains in first-place, but just by one point. They suffered a 26-22 setback against the Ti-Cats at home, a shocking loss considering the RedBlacks were 12-point favorites. The non-cover stopped a 3-0 ATS run for Ottawa. One thing that has been consistent is the under for Ottawa, going 3-0-2 over their past five and 7-1-2 across their past 10.

-- Toronto (4-7) has dropped two in a row and five of their past six after a 3-2 SU start. The Argonauts just cannot seem to cover lately, going 1-7 ATS across the past eight. Bettors fading the Argos and betting the 'under' in their games have been cashing nicely. The 'under' is 4-0 over the past four, and 8-3 overall.

-- Montreal (3-8) has been in a tailspin lately, dropping four in a row and six of the past seven. Their lack of punch has been the reason for their struggles, averaging just 14.8 PPG during the four-game losing skid.

-- BC Lions (6-5) picked themselves off of the mat and slapped the brakes on a three-game losing streak in grand fashion. The Lions routed visiting Montreal by a 41-18 score for their first cover since Aug. 5. It was also their first 'over' result since July 28 after a 3-0-1 'under' run.

-- The Lions will face the Stamps in Calgary on Saturday night. The Lions are just 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Calgary. The 'over' has also cashed in seven of the past nine meetings in Calgary.

-- Winnipeg (8-3) posted their fourth consecutive victory at home with a 48-28 win over the Riders, going 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' has been the thing to bet with the Bombers, cashing in four straight and eight of the past nine.