Originally Posted by
Can'tPickAWinner
Dr Bob
Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville (+4) vs Baltimore (London)
The Jaguars played better than their 21-point deficit to the Titans last week would indicate, as my metrics say they should’ve only lost by 6. Jacksonville’s defense has been solid this season with new additions Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye (9th in my metrics) and I expect that to continue against a Baltimore attack ranking below average according to my model who has now lost Danny Woodhead and key offensive lineman Marshall Yanda to injury.
The Ravens have the second-best point differential in the NFL (+34) through two weeks but have been lucky to allow 0 points in their opponents 4 trips to the Redzone. Baltimore has also benefitted from their opponents converting only 20% of 3rd downs against them – even the best defenses surrender about 35% of 3rd downs over the course of a season. I’m passing this game.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+1.5) over Cleveland
This game will be decided by two young quarterbacks with little starting experience. Thus far in their careers, Jacoby Brissett has greatly outperformed DeShone Kizer – mainly due to Kizer’s near 7% interception rate. Brissett and Kizer have both relied on their feet with career scramble rates of 19% and 14% respectively.
Despite losing by two touchdowns last week, the Browns outgained the Ravens by 0.8 yards-per-play and, if it weren’t for 5 turnovers, Cleveland may have won that game. However, rookie quarterbacks tend to throw interceptions and it’s tough to trust Kizer until he proves to be less careless with his decision making.
Cleveland certainly does appear to be improved and the Colts have struggled without star quarterback Andrew Luck, but the Browns are a road favorite for only the 4th time in the last decade and Indy applies to a 67-20-1 ATS contrary indicator.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
CHICAGO (+7) vs Pittsburgh
There was value on Chicago heading into the season and I won my best bet on them in week 1, as they came within 5 yards from beating Atlanta. However, after playing so well against the Falcons the Bears have been priced like a team expected to win a full game more than their preseason win total in weeks 2 & 3 and the value no longer exists.
The Bears rely on their rushing attack led by a strong offensive line but they were forced to move away from the ground game after falling behind by double digits in the first quarter against the Buccaneers in week 2. That game would’ve been much closer if Chicago didn’t turn the ball over four times – one of which was returned for a touchdown and another was an inexplicable fumble on a Tarik Cohen punt return to set up Tampa’s offense in the Redzone.
Pittsburgh is coming off a convincing home win against the Bradford-less Vikings where their defense took care of business. Still, the Steelers offense has looked poor through two weeks ranking 25th in the NFL according to my metrics. Pittsburgh’s rush offense ranks last and the Steelers will need improve their rushing attack if they hope to get the offense going this season. I expect both Pittsburgh and Chicago to look to establish the run early in this game and the team that has success doing so is likely to cover. But, I have no opinion at the current line.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Lean – NEW YORK JETS (+6) over Miami
The Dolphins were outgained by almost 2 yards per play against the Chargers in week 2 and my numbers say the Chargers should’ve won by nearly 9 points. Miami was able to come out victorious due to a significant edge in special teams as Miami made 4 of 4 field goals, including a 54-yarder, while the Chargers missed 2 field goals including what would have been the game-winning attempt in the final seconds.
The Jets are a bad team but they weren’t as bad last week as the 45-20 score against the Raiders indicates. My metrics show the Jets played about 10 points better than the final score of that game and Josh McCown actually played pretty well with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Preseason implied wins would have made this game MIA -6 and I haven’t seen anything from these two teams to change preseason expectations. While there is no line value in this game I do lean with the Jets on a basis of a 118-65-1 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs of more than 3 points that lost the previous week by 24 points or more. I’d consider the Jets a Strong Opinion if the line gets up to +7 points
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Lean Under (40) – BUFFALO (+3) vs Denver
As discussed last week in our Strong Opinion on Denver, the Broncos have an advantage playing at home in high altitude early in the season when conditioning of their opponents isn’t as good as it is later in the season. Denver certainly benefitted from their altitude advantage as opponents in starting the season 2-0 with wins over the Chargers and Cowboys. The Broncos have a point differential of +28 and my numbers show them as the top performers so far this season. Denver’s 5th ranked defense may not be a surprise but their 3rd ranked offense is certainly much higher than preseason expectations. As I mentioned though, I think opposing defenses have been tiring out in the altitude on these long Broncos drives. These tired defenses have shown in the numbers as Denver has scored a touchdown on every trip to the Redzone this year, which is something that surely will not continue.
Buffalo was a dropped pass away at the end of the game from winning in Carolina last week but my metrics show they were outplayed – the Bills never even got the ball into the Redzone. Buffalo’s offense will need to improve if they hope to get back in the win column in week 3 but the Bills have less weapons on offense this season and I certainly don’t expect them to be as good offensively as they were last season. The Bills still have a solid defense and I will lean with the Under in this game.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) vs Houston
The overreaction to Houston’s disappointing week 1 performance went too far and I won my week 2 Best Bet as the Texans beat the Bengals outright as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The market has moved them back closer to preseason expectations as my ratings make the Patriots a 12.5 point favorite.
New England’s offense turned it around from their week 1 performance by putting up 36 points in New Orleans. However, the status of Rob Gronkowski will be something to monitor going forward. Gronk has been Tom Brady’s most effective receiver by far since coming into the league – he has gained nearly 0.2 points per target more than any other Patriot in that time span, which works out to a couple of points per game. I have no opinion on this game.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Lean Under (46.5) – CAROLINA (-5.5) vs New Orleans
This game will feature the league’s top performing defense against its worst performing defense. The Panthers have only allowed 6 points in their first two games, while the Saints have allowed 65 points. However, I see some room for improvement in the Saints defense because they’ve been unlucky to surrender a whopping 58% of 3rd downs conversions – I expect that percentage to be more like 45% moving forward.
Carolina’s offense has been about 5 points worse than average so that unit also struggled last season, so I don’t expect the Panthers to take full advantage of the Saints’ defensive issues. New Orleans’ offense has been roughly 7 points better than average thus far but they’re at a disadvantage against this menacing Panthers’ defense. The last four games in this divisional series have been decided by less than a touchdown and it should be another good game on Sunday. I lean Under.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lean – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3) over Kansas City
The Chiefs basically played the Eagles to a stalemate last week after a very impressive week 1 performance in New England. Philadelphia outgained Kansas City but was only able to score touchdowns on 2 of their 5 trips to the Redzone. The Kansas City offense has ranked in the top 10 both weeks thus far according to my numbers and much of that success is due to the deep ball. However, contrary to popular belief, Alex Smith hasn’t been much more aggressive than usual this season (14th in attempts of more than 20 yards) – but he has been very accurate and leads the league in deep passing yards.
The Chargers somehow found a way to lose another close game despite out-gaining the Dolphins by almost 2 yards per play. Philip Rivers looked good coming off a tough week 1 matchup in Denver, shredding the Dolphins for nearly 8 yards per pass play. The Los Angeles run game remains a problem, as my numbers have the Chargers rushing offense ranked 30th and Melvin Gordon can’t seem to get it going despite his head coach, Anthony Lynn, being a former NFL running back and a running backs coach for the previous 13 years of his career.
The Chargers have been much better than their record since the beginning of last season, as they’re actually an average team that has been unlucky to lose nearly every close game that they’re in. That can’t go on forever and I see a bit of value with the Chargers at +3 or more.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers
Lean – Cincinnati (+8.5) over GREEN BAY
I won both my best bets on last week’s Thursday night game – HOU +6.5 and Under 38. One of the reasons for making those plays was Andy Dalton’s inability to make plays under pressure. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league this year and Dalton ranked 7th amongst QBs when facing no pressure but ranked just 25th passing while under pressure in 2016, according to Football Outsiders. Last season, the Packers defense ranked better in pressure rate than both Baltimore and Houston, Dalton’s first two opponents, and Dom Capers is a master at disguising his blitzes.
My model has Green Bay’s expected point differential at +10 after two games against top NFC competition. However, the Packers have actually had a negative point differential thus far, which would usually be a flag for some value – but the market has virtually no confidence left in Andy Dalton and the spread on this game is actually a bit higher than it should be.
While I don’t like the match-up for Cincinnati, I do lean with the Bengals on the basis of a 53-17-3 ATS week 3 contrary indicator that is based on the Bengals’ poor performance to date.
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