Saturday 9-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Ace / Line Beaters

NCAA Football NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH ‑165

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Sportsbook Advisor

NCAA Football SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS ‑4

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Assassin Sports Betting

NCAA Football TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS +8 ‑135

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Top Dog LB

NCAA Football IOWA HAWKEYES +375

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DONNY ACTION

NCAA Football IDAHO VANDALS +3.5 ‑110

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Line Mover Sports

NCAA Football ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES/SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS ‑110 u73

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Tys Terrific Tips

NCAA Football WYOMING COWBOYS ‑5

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Tony Brown

Tony's *5 mlb free pick

LA Angels vs. Houston, 09/23/2017 13:05 EDT

Total: -130/+9½ Under

Sportsbook:
Bodog

Fp: Both teams quite from behind the plate in this series and 10 runs to win will be a chore making the under my mlb free pick..

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Andrew Bartley
free

Penn State vs. Iowa, 09/23/2017 19:30 EDT

Point Spread: +12½/-115 Iowa

Sportsbook:
Betonline

Free Play on Iowa- Iowa usually gets up for spots like this to start with, and Penn State is a team that hasn't played away from home this year. Penn State really hasn't been tested at all this season. It's a dangerous spot for the Nittany Lions. A big night game and a great home field advantage here. Grab the points.

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Joe D'Amico

Joe D's NCAAF FREE WINNER

Notre Dame vs. Michigan State, 09/23/2017 20:00 EDT

Point Spread: +3½/-112 Michigan State

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

NCAAF FREE WINNER: Michigan State.
Game 362.
5;00 pm pst.

Michigan State had a week off to rest and prepare as HC, Mark Dantonio has his defense playing stellar football, not allowing and offensive TD and leading FBS schools in 3rd down defense (10.7% conversion rate). In LY's, 36-28 win over the Irish, the Spartans held the ball for 37:57 and ran for 262 yards on the ground. Notre Dame faces a stout run defense and has a QB in Lewerke who is completing just 51.1% of his passes. The Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS their L4 games played vs. Big Ten teams and 0-8 ATS their L8 games played following an ATS win. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS their L5 games played at home and 4-1 ATS their L5 games played overall. Take Michigan State. Thank you.

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Tony Karpinski

TCU vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma St -12½

With a strong offense and a good, solid O-Line, that, in support of a great defense, makes Oklahoma State very tough to handle. The Cowboys will come out victorious in this big matchup between 2 ranked teams. Oklahoma State has attacked opponents front 7 with tenacity and vigor. Justice Hill has a team high 250 rushing YDs - which is going to be very hard to overcome for TCU when trying to stop them from running the ball. Oklahoma State just has far too much talent in their backfield for TCU to stop all game long.

The offense of TCU is in great shape, but, I'd argue they have not faced a defense like OSU is bringing to the table. At the top end of the NCAA, and 49.0 /game - those are numbers tat have me a little concerned for the Cowboys D, but still not enough. In fact QB, Kenny Hill has put up one special game vs Southern Methodist - but otherwise, nothing to be really too concerned about for the Cowboys. What makes this game even tougher, is how the Cowboys LBs pick up backs in the slot - and offensively, the Cowboys are a nightmare with their backfield options.

Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and most of their starters haven't even played in the 4th Q of any of their games. Look for a BLOWOUT here in this one.

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Frank Jordan

Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -9.5

Pittsburgh won their first game by seven points, but have gotten crushed in their last two games to ranked teams a they head South to Georgia Tech looking to even up their record at 2-2. Georgia Tech lost their opener by a single point in overtime going for two and the win and failed, but responded nicely last time out winning 37-10 over Jackson State. Georgia Tech is coming off a bye week so they are well rested after the game against UCF was canceled due to hurricanes hitting Florida. The meeting between these two clubs in Pittsburgh last year was a great game with the Panthers pulling out the 37-34 victory. Georgia Tech entire team is TaQuon Marshall who is their top passer (232 passing yards and three TDs) and rusher (274 yards and six rushing touchdowns) and is poised for a double threat game against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has played a pair of quarterbacks this season with each throwing just a single touchdown and two interceptions while the running game is quite spread out with four players rushing for at least 70 rushing yards and four players with a rushing touchdown. Look for Georgia Tech to ride Marshall to two score win 34-20.

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Brandon Shively

Syracuse vs. LSU
Pick: LSU -21

LSU takes on Syracuse and laying the points is the best move here.

The Tigers are going to just wear the Orange defense down. Syracuse just hasn't been tested with an offense like this one that LSU puts out.

LSU has put up 401 yards per game and they've put up 217 rush yards per game out of that. LSU has been notorious over the previous years to just wear teams down and eventually run all over them. They've done that this season with Derrius Guice who has 300 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Look for LSU to just pound the ball right at this Cuse line, as they'll eventually start to see more and more open gaps.

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The Real Animal

Iowa +11

Hey I'm a Penn State fan from the days of Franco Harris, Lydell Mitchell, and John Capelleti (Lenny Moore alittle before my time). Saquon Barkley is in the neighborhood for sure. But damn, the Lions haven't played anybody with a schedule that includes Akron, Pittsburgh, and Georgia State, all at home. They and Washington have had the softest schedules in the country to date. Consider that Clemson has already beat Auburn at home and Louisville on the road. #4 in the country based on what? I certainly wasn't impressed with there defense versus USC in the Rose Bowl. I swear this number is inflated as well because Iowa based on the eye test can score on anybody and is certainly capable of playing physical defense. Penn State is just 6-21-1 ATS on the road against high-scoring teams averaging 32 points or more plus Iowa is 13-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog. Plus the Hawkeyes have covered 17 of 22 verus teams that average 37 or more points per game. It kind of bugs me that Pitt had possession for 38:20 against Penn State too. Iowa out to avenge a 41-14 road loss last year at State College. Iowa RB Akrum Wadley now listed as probable. Wish RB Butler was healthy but he's out 3-4 weeks. Iowa QB Golden has a 10-1 ratio so far. I'm a little worried about what the Hawkeyes gave up at Iowa State but they were stingy in the other two games. If the Hawkeyes don't turn the ball over they have a shot here. Penn State has been the recipient of nine turnovers to date from three horrible teams.

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Brad Powers

California +17

USC has covered 10 of the last 12 in the series and has won 13 straight overall including last year’s 45-24 (-16.5 win). The Trojans come in off the dramatic 2OT win over Texas in a game USC had several missed scoring opportunities in the first three quarters. USC QB Sam Darnold has been forcing the issue a bit with 6 interceptions already this season. Cal is already off to a 3-0 start after last week’s home upset over Ole Miss. The most shocking performance was that of the Cal defense shutting Ole Miss out in the second half (trailed 16-7). USC is really banged up off two physical games and could be caught in a bit of a flat spot with a big game vs Washington St on deck.

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SPORTS WAGERS

VANDERBILT +18½ over Alabama

When it comes to public perception, Vanderbilt and Alabama are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Alabama is the gold standard of college football and currently the top-ranked team in all polls across America. Its reputation and prestige speaks for itself. By contrast, Vanderbilt is known as the traditional featherweight of the SEC. Situationally, this sets up a perfect scenario, as we can find extensive value on the Commodores by virtue of those biases alone. It helps that the Commodores are actually a very good football team.

The 2017 rendition of Vanderbilt is not the Commodores we’re accustomed to seeing. This ensemble features a talented stable of running backs anchored by one of the game’s best rushers in Ralph Webb. The ‘Dores also have a quarterback they can rely on in clutch situations by the name of Kyle Shurmur. Additionally, Vandy is the owner of the BEST scoring defense in all of America and enter this game undefeated just like Alabama. This feat was not achieved against a cornucopia of FCS cupcakes either. The Commodores made an immediate statement in their season opener against Middle Tennessee State, where they would beat down the Blue Raiders by a score of 28-6. What is even more impressive is that Vandy did this on the road in Murfreesboro, where MTSU is known as a very tough club to beat. Furthermore, the Blue Raiders were highly-touted and were perceived to have one of the Conference USA’s most potent offenses in 2017. The ‘Dores made them look like BYU. Vandy would follow that up with a 42-0 shutout at home the following week against Alabama A&M, which did nothing to boost its market credentials, as it was a game completely off the grid. Last week, however, Vanderbilt achieved its most impressive win of the season, as it defeated the #18 Kansas State Wildcats by a score of 14-7. Vanderbilt was once again undervalued as they closed as a five-point pooch.

Head Coach Derek Mason has employed a blue-collar mindset and a lunchbox-in-hand approach that all involved have bought into. This is a rugged and snarling football team that is so relentless in its pursuit of the football. Let’s not dismiss that what Vandy did to the Wildcats last week in what is typically a “look-ahead” spot. Despite an exclamatory victory in a difficult scheduling spot, Vanderbilt is still not getting any market cred. The Commodores come into this fixture with an opportunity to show America how good they really are against the measuring stick in all of college football. This is Alabama’s first bona fide road game of the year and they are stepping into an environment that will be energized against a Vanderbilt club that is far superior to the outfit it trampled when the two last met in 2011. This is a game Alabama will have to work for with Vandy chomping at the bit to finally get noticed. You always pay a premium to back the Tide and now you’ll pay that price on the road.

Nevada +28½ over WASHINGTON ST

Situationally, the Cougars are set-up perfectly to be a fade candidate here. For those that tuned in to the Cougars’ clash with visiting Boise State on a nightcap of gridiron on September 9th, commentators highlighted that September 29th was a date circled, highlighted, and boxed on the calendars of all Washington State fans, coaches, alumni, and players. September 29th is the day that USC is scheduled to come to Pullman and Washington State has been patiently waiting. The prospect of an undefeated Trojans coming to town against an expected-to-be undefeated Cougars team sets up the possibility of a primetime collision aired for national audiences. The sheer thought of such a spectacle has fired up a fan base that has endured some bumpy years until the Cougars’ recent re-emergence from the doldrums.

There is little dispute that the Cougars have made leaps in the past few seasons. Washington State has won at least eight games in each season dating back to 2015 and they were in contention for a possible Pac 12 Championship Game appearance in 2016 until their arch rival Washington took them down in the annual Apple Cup. The Cougars also feature arguably the best quarterback in America in Luke Falk who has been an effective and efficient weapon that nurtured the Wazzu renaissance. While there is heightened enthusiasm and a lot of excitement surrounding the Cougars program and its ceiling as a whole, it was clear that Washington State was guilty of looking ahead when they hosted the Broncos. The Cougars trailed by as much as 21 points against Boise State and were forced to cultivate a huge rally to force overtime. Washington State would escape with a win but exposed some chinks in their armor in the process. While the Cougars boast the sixth-best passing attack in America (408.3 yards per game) and an incredulous 43.3 points per game, Wazzu gave their foes a glimpse of their weaknesses. Their offense is built to score frequently and rapidly. Such air raid strategies are virtually unstoppable when deployed appropriately. However, this approach to the game can also result in large leads evaporating if mistakes are made or if the operations stall. Thus, a team like the Cougars are almost always a risk when spotting this kind of lumber to any team, including one as lowly as 0-3 Nevada. Failing to cover a 41-point line against a one-dimensional FCS cupcake in Montana State when the Cougars opened their season exemplifies that too.

Furthermore, if Washington State was guilty of potentially looking ahead when welcoming a team as good as Boise State to Martin Stadium three weeks out from USC, what could be said when the quality of competition is a step down with just a week to go until the big showdown? With the Cougars on a collision course with the Men of Troy in what could be a landmark game for Washington State, there is a strong possibility that Mike Leach calls off the dogs once this contest is well in hand. For Wazoo, its fans and media in that region, this game is merely a glorified practice and that gives the Wolf Pack a big chance to come in through the back door if it is required.

Nevada is still looking for its first win this season and they are also looking to salvage some semblance of pride after being upset at home last weekend as a 32½-point choice against a FCS opponent in Idaho State. Going from a 32½-point choice to a 28-point dog in the span of one week is a 60-point swing and we’re not sure we’ve ever seen that before at this level. It’s the prudent choice.

TEXAS ST. +13 over UTSA

When comparing these two outfits, there is simply more appeal in UTSA than Texas State. The Road Runners come into this affair undefeated and the ripples they sent throughout college football are likely still felt in this market after they shocked Baylor at home two weeks ago. As a 12½-point road pup, Coach Frank Wilson and company would dictate the pace and flow of the game on the Bears’ own field. UTSA is a textbook triple option football team and as teams of its breed often do, ball possession and clock control are staples of their methodologies. UTSA had its way in doing so against Baylor. However, in spite of Baylor’s performance year-to-date, the verity of such an achievement is subject to skepticism.

UTSA has had a propensity to be a tremendous value play when they are undervalued or off-the-radar. The Road Runners gave fits to Arizona State in 2016 as a 21½-point home dog in which the Sun Devils had to resort to heroics to escape with a win after they trailed by as much as 16 points. Furthermore, on two other occasions, the Road Runners would win in dominant fashion as a 16½-point pooch hosting Southern Mississippi and as a 19-point pup on the road at Middle Tennessee State. UTSA took advantage of weak defenses and just like Novocaine, if you give their strategy time, it will eventually work. However, if there is a team that is familiar with Texas San Antonio it would be their old friends from San Marcos, the Texas State Bobcats. Texas State took App State to the wire last week and came within one yard of sending that game into OT. The final score read 20-13.

These two teams comprise a dormant feud which has been once again activated known as The I-35 Rivalry. The last time the two teams met was in 2012 and UTSA was the victor in that meeting when they edged out the Bobcats by a score of 38-31. Previous to that, the Bobcats won six of the previous seven contests in the annual grudge match but this is all ancient history. Fast forward to the present and Texas State has won just five games in the previous two seasons and has yet to qualify for its first bowl game in school history despite being eligible in 2014 when they went 7-5. As a result of UTSA’s accolades of late, they are subjected to what we call a recency bias. Very simply, the Road Runners have generated more press, as they were in a bowl last year and is a legit contender to win Conference USA this year. It has already beaten a Power 5 team in Baylor on the road and is giving up only 212 yards per game. To that we say big deal, as Baylor has turned out to be a mess, UTSA’s first game of the year was cancelled in Houston and last week, as a 35-point favorite, they defeated Southern, 51-17. The Road Runners failed to cover that 35-point line when they hosted Southern and they are 1-5 ATS in the handful of situations they have been laying double digits or more dating back to the 2014-15 season. This is a team that is much better suited being the hunter and not the hunted, which is exactly what they are heading into San Marcos as they battle a nostalgic adversary who will treat this match-up as if it were a bowl game.

UL-Monroe +6½ over UL-LAFAYETTE

Situationally, the Cougars are set-up perfectly to be a fade candidate here. For those that tuned in to the Cougars’ clash with visiting Boise State on a nightcap of gridiron on September 9th, commentators highlighted that September 29th was a date circled, highlighted, and boxed on the calendars of all Washington State fans, coaches, alumni, and players. September 29th is the day that USC is scheduled to come to Pullman and Washington State has been patiently waiting. The prospect of an undefeated Trojans coming to town against an expected-to-be undefeated Cougars team sets up the possibility of a primetime collision aired for national audiences. The sheer thought of such a spectacle has fired up a fan base that has endured some bumpy years until the Cougars’ recent re-emergence from the doldrums.

There is little dispute that the Cougars have made leaps in the past few seasons. Washington State has won at least eight games in each season dating back to 2015 and they were in contention for a possible Pac 12 Championship Game appearance in 2016 until their arch rival Washington took them down in the annual Apple Cup. The Cougars also feature arguably the best quarterback in America in Luke Falk who has been an effective and efficient weapon that nurtured the Wazzu renaissance. While there is heightened enthusiasm and a lot of excitement surrounding the Cougars program and its ceiling as a whole, it was clear that Washington State was guilty of looking ahead when they hosted the Broncos. The Cougars trailed by as much as 21 points against Boise State and were forced to cultivate a huge rally to force overtime. Washington State would escape with a win but exposed some chinks in their armor in the process. While the Cougars boast the sixth-best passing attack in America (408.3 yards per game) and an incredulous 43.3 points per game, Wazzu gave their foes a glimpse of their weaknesses. Their offense is built to score frequently and rapidly. Such air raid strategies are virtually unstoppable when deployed appropriately. However, this approach to the game can also result in large leads evaporating if mistakes are made or if the operations stall. Thus, a team like the Cougars are almost always a risk when spotting this kind of lumber to any team, including one as lowly as 0-3 Nevada. Failing to cover a 41-point line against a one-dimensional FCS cupcake in Montana State when the Cougars opened their season exemplifies that too.

Furthermore, if Washington State was guilty of potentially looking ahead when welcoming a team as good as Boise State to Martin Stadium three weeks out from USC, what could be said when the quality of competition is a step down with just a week to go until the big showdown? With the Cougars on a collision course with the Men of Troy in what could be a landmark game for Washington State, there is a strong possibility that Mike Leach calls off the dogs once this contest is well in hand. For Wazoo, its fans and media in that region, this game is merely a glorified practice and that gives the Wolf Pack a big chance to come in through the back door if it is required.

Nevada is still looking for its first win this season and they are also looking to salvage some semblance of pride after being upset at home last weekend as a 32½-point choice against a FCS opponent in Idaho State. Going from a 32½-point choice to a 28-point dog in the span of one week is a 60-point swing and we’re not sure we’ve ever seen that before at this level. It’s the prudent choice.

APP STATE +6 over Wake Forest

App St has failed to cover in all of its games. In other words, if you bet App State at any point this year, you have ripped up your ticket and probably vowed to not go there again. As a 21½-point favorite last week against Texas State, the Mountaineers scored a lousy 20 points and did not come close to covering in a 20-13 win. In fact, Texas State ended the game on App State’s one-yard line, ala Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XXXIV. We are in the buy low business and that’s what we are doing here.

We are also in the sell high business, which brings us to the overvalued Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Wake is 3-0 and has scored an incredible 131 points in their three wins. The Deacs have barely broken a sweat this year, outscoring its opponents by a resonating 131-17. You will now pay dearly for getting behind an untested team that has defeated Presbyterian, Boston College and Utah State. Combined, those three squads that Wake defeated are a combined 3-9. The teams that they beat are the Campbell Camels (we don’t make this shit up), Northern Illinois and Idaho State. There is a price to pay for scheduling games against weak opponents and the Deacs are likely going to pay that price here. This team has proven nothing of substance yet but the market is drooling over spotting a small price on them. Frankly, we’re not even convinced that Wake is the better team. We know for sure that they are the overvalued squad here going up against an undervalued host.

In Week 1, Appalachian State was a 12½-point dog at Georgia. Against that tremendous defense, App State would rack up 136 yards on the ground and another 148 through the air. The Mountaineers would fall behind 21-0 early before finding its feet and matching the Dawgs the rest of the way. In the final 38 minutes of that game, App State and Georgia would play to a 10-10 tie. If App State was getting 12½ in Georgia, they should not be getting this many points at home against Wake. This one is so tempting to play straight up because App State can absolutely win outright. However, there is just such tremendous value in the points that we’re going to have to lean that way instead.

Central Florida +4½ over MARYLAND

Maryland lost starting quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome in its season-opening win at Texas in a game that was broadcast across the country. True freshman Kasim Hill led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives, and that win looks even better now with the way Texas has responded in the past two weeks. Maryland then went on to beat Towson 63-17 to run its record to 2-0 and that’s where they sit, as last week they had off. While Maryland’s offensive numbers are terrific, the defense is not, as it allowed the Longhorns to put up massive yardage and 41 points. Even Towson threw for 210 yards against Maryland while running for another 100. What’s so interesting about this game is that UCF has been off for 21 days so this market has completely forgotten about them. We haven’t.

We had UCF wrongly pegged to go under their season win total and as fate or luck would have it, the wager was refunded because the Knights will not play the required games. UCF’s last two scheduled games have been cancelled but that only gave this tremendous coaching staff more time to prep and more time to practice. An opening night rout of Florida International showcased how well this team can pitch and catch down the field. Sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton still has ball security issues, which is a problem that can be solved and he showed improved accuracy and appears poised to take a big step forward in 2017 for what should be an increasingly explosive attack. Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander is one of the top assistants in the league and he has All-America candidate Shaquem Griffin leading what might be the league's top unit. Head coach Scott Frost is an offensive guy, but learned under masters Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh and Chip Kelly, and does a great job setting a physical, run-and-hit tone for the whole program. Win or lose this week, we’ll want to be buying Frost's bunch this year and beyond and it starts here. We’re going to split this up and play UCF both on the money line and point spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Duke Pk

I have been impressed with the Duke Defense this year. Maybe it’s because of their opponents, but this team looks like they will be in the mix of things in the ACC. UNC lost so much NFL talent from last year’s roster. You just can’t replace that. This UNC team doesn’t have a go to quarterback, no real established running back, not many targets and a really banged up offensive line that could be missing their center and both tackles today. On the Duke side of the offense you have a smart QB who is mobile, a good running back and a ton of targets to catch the ball. The Blue Devils have more talented football players on their roster this year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Bovi

Penn State at Iowa
Play: Iowa +12.5

Hawkeyes have revenge on their mind as they have suffered several blowouts at the hands of the Nittany Lions. Penn St has not been impressive offensively this year when it counted, that vs Pitt as McSorley threw for only 164 with 3 INT's while the Panthers were torched by Youngstown and shredded by Mason Rudolph to the tune of about 500 through the air. PSU has beat up on Akron and Georgia State besides the win over Pitt. Hawkeyes should be very competitive at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN DIEGO -107 over Colorado

Colorado is on the verge of making the playoffs and now it is evenly priced in San Diego, which is an angle we like to attack. While most of the market will use the “must win” angle for getting the behind the Rocks, we prefer the spoiler role team, as they’re motivated relaxed and very dangerous.

Aside from that, Jhoulys Chacin has been tremendous at Petco with a 1.91 ERA and a .182 oppBA over 15 starts. Chacin can provide some sneaky value if you use him judiciously. He's one of the NL's better starters against right-handed batters with 9.1 K’s/9 1.9 BB’s/9 and a 53% groundball rate. Those skills have helped him produce a 2.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against them. Chacin has 23 K’s over his past 26 frames and he figures to be extra jacked up here to make life miserable for his former team.

Chad Bettis has made just seven starts this year. Last year he made 32 starts and racked up 17 victories. Bettis is Exhibit A of why W-L record isn't an accurate barometer of value. Bettis got more run support last year than any starting pitcher not named Arrieta. While his skill foundation was trending slightly in the right direction, his underlying numbers tells us he’s still subpar. Bettis’ dominant starts/disaster starts splits reveal his blowup risk, especially given his gopheritis v righties. This year, Bettis has 23 K’s in 35 innings to go along with a 6.23 ERA and 5.33 xERA. Frankly, with so much time missed, it’s hard to get a read on how strong he’s feeling or if the small sample size this year is as bad as it appears. If you are thinking of speculating on Bettis, we’re suggesting you speculate elsewhere.

Pass CFL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

UMass vs. Tennessee
Play:Tennessee -27½

The Vols suffered a heartbreaking loss on the final play of the game in Gainesville last week but I see this as an excellent ‘get right’ matchup against a UMass squad we’ve kept a close eye on so far this season.

After successfully fading the Minutemen with Old Dominion two weeks ago we switched gears and backed them last week on the road against Temple. It’s time to zig-zag again this week as they take a big step up in class against Tennessee.

I expected the UMass offense to bust out against Temple last week but that never really happened. Meanwhile, the Minutemen defense was pedestrian at best and obviously won’t find the going any easier this Saturday.

We’re being asked to lay a steep price with the Vols, but it’s warranted in my opinion.