Saturday 9-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Larry Ness

Wyoming -6

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will travel to War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, Wy to take on the Cowboys this Saturday night. Hawaii is 2-1 on the season, losing to UCLA 56-23 on September 9th, while Wyoming is 1-2 after losing 49-13 this past Saturday to Oregon (opened with a 24-3 loss at Iowa but then won Sep 9 at home 27-0 over Gardner-Webb). Both schools played in bowl games last season, Wyoming losing 24-21 to BYU to finish 8-6 and Hawaii winning 52-35 over Middle Tennessee St to finish 7-7. These schools haven't met since 2014, with Wyoming owning a 13-9 series edge.

Going 7-7 in his first season as Hawaii's head coach was quite an achievement for head coach Nick Rolovich, as he inherited a 3-10 team from 2015. Hawaii is led by QB Dru Brown who has completed 60.8% of his passes on the season with seven TD's and four INTs, while averaging 257.3 YPG through the air. RB Diocemy Saint Juste has 434 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) but just one TD for a team averaging 230.7 YPG on the ground. Hawaii's defense is allowing its opponents to average 36.3 PPG on 466.7 YPG.

Wyoming QB Josh Allen came into the 2017 season as a potential first-round pick (many had him as a HIGH pick!). However, he's completed only 56.3% for 566 yards (less than 200 YPG!) with two TDs and three INTs (he passed for 3203 yards in 2016 with a 28-15 ratio). Wyoming had no answers for Oregon's offense as the Ducks gained 558 yards, while the Cowboys were able to muster only 183. With Allen at QB, it's hard to imagine how Wyoming is averaging just 14.3 PPG (121st) on 269.7 YPG (125th). Is it real or is it Memorex?"

I believe the Cowboys are WAAY better than they've shown so far. The Cowboys won SIX of seven home games last year and have opened 1-1 at home in 2017. Losing to Oregon at home is acceptable. Losing here to Hawaii would NOT be.

[New York Knight]

Will Rogers

Georgia -5.5

The set-up: Two undefeated SEC schools meet Saturday "between the hedges" at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga. The Miss. State Bulldogs are 3-0 and entered the AP's top-25 poll at No. 17 (first ranking since November of 2015), after their 37-7 "take-down" of then-No. 12 LSU last Saturday. The Georgia Bulldogs are also 3-0 and ranked No. 11, slightly up from the school's No. 15 ranking in the preseason. Georgia's best win of 2017 so far, was its 20-19 win at then-No. 24 Notre Dame in South Bend on Sep. 9. Georgia has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with Mississippi State and leads the all-time series 17-6.

Mississippi State: Dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald was named the SEC's Offensive Player of the Week after finishing with 260 yards of total offense against LSU, while accounting for four TDs (two passing and two rushing). He's completing 61.4% on the season with seven TDs and only one INT plus is the team's second-leading rusher with 240 yards (7.7 YPC) and five TDs. RB Aeris Williams leads the way with 336 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC. The Bulldogs average 297.7 YPG on the ground (11th) and are 9th in scoring at 47.7 PPG. Considering the defense has allowed just 9.3 PPG (6th) on 206.0 YPG (3rd), it's not hard to see why MSU is 3-0.

Georgia: Freshman QB Jake Fromm has passed for five TDs in three games since taking over for the injured Jacob Eason early in the season opener. “We have to get him to make good decisions,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart told reporters Tuesday in reference to Fromm. “As long as he does that, we can play winning football.” RB Sony Michel (160 yards on 5.5 YPC) is expected back after sitting out Samford with a minor injury and joins Nick Chubb (290 yards on 6.6 YPC) to give Georgia a lethal one-two RB punch. Georgia's D has played very well, allowing 14.3 PPG (21st) on 266.0 YPG (16th). The fact that the team's rush D allows just 71.0 YPG (5th) could be a huge factor against MSU's powerful rushing attack.

The pick: Mississippi State has scored 35 or more points in eight of its last 10 games (dating back to last year) but this will be the Bulldogs' first road test of 2017. "It’s our first SEC road game, which adds different challenges to the picture,” head coach Dan Mullen told reporters regarding the first meeting between the schools since 2011. Back-to-back games against the nation's 12th-ranked team (LSU last Saturday) and now its 11th-ranked team (Georgia right here), is a pretty big 'hill to climb.' I've noted already that Georgia has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two schools and I'll also add that Georgia has fared well at home vs. SEC-West foes here at home, going 10-3 its last 13 contests. I'm laying the points with Georgia.

[New York Knight]

RAY MONOHAN

Washington State -28

This game is a complete mismatch. Washington State has one of the most unique and most threatening offenses in the nation. It's no secret what they'll look to do here against Nevada. Deep passes and quick pace should have this Wolfpack defense flustered as they've struggled all season long. Nevada enters Saturday giving up over 32 points per game and they've been torched by the pass game. On top of all that, Washington State's defense has actually stepped up some here through 3 games. They're only conceding 22 points per game, which is a rare sight for a Washington State team in the recent seasons. Some trends to note. Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. Cougars are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Cougars are not a team you want to mess with right now.

[New York Knight]

MIKE ANTHONY

Florida State -12.5

Florida State has been great with their 3rd down defense - and they have also shown quick ways to switch their defensive shifts throughout the game. Florida State also has shown improvements in their passing game - led by Deondre Francois, keeping the team going forward on the field. They have to keep their Dline attacking - as well as they showed they can do, vs top ranked Alabama. Florida State is a team that will be pretty comfortable moving the ball well enough by air - the Seminoles are better than they have stat-wise, as well on the DB side as well - just enough to clamp it down. This NC State team lacks the overall level that the FSU group has, and they are definitely behind the 8 ball here playing their best opponent all season. You seem to never know what you're getting with this NC State team. Are they going to get lit up and give up 35, or score 35? And that's the very real problem. Their front lacks the ability to stop crucial 3rd downs anywhere near as good as NC State needs them too. Their special teams work was not so great in their expected win, vs Furman last game and will struggle again, here vs a much better team. Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Florida State wins by 17 or more.

[New York Knight]

KYLE HUNTER

Georgia -4

The Georgia Bulldogs host the Mississippi Bulldogs on Saturday night in a big SEC showdown. Mississippi State is coming off a massive 37-7 shellacking of LSU. That was a game that got everyone's attention.

There's a couple reasons why I think that game makes Mississippi State's road to a potential cover more difficult here. First, they are obviously feeling really good about themselves right now. Mississippi State celebrated for a couple days after that win, and it would be hard to not have some kind of letdown. Second, Mississippi State isn't going to sneak up on anyone after that kind of performance. They'll get the other teams best effort.

The public is buying into Mississippi State in a big way. 65% of bets are on Mississippi State here and that has driven this number down.

Georgia has a very strong defense, and the Bulldogs running game is elite. Mississippi State relies a lot on one player (Fitzgerald).

Maybe Mississippi State is just a lot better than I think, but this is a terrible spot for them. They have to prove it to me.

[New York Knight]

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Army/Tulane UNDER

It's common knowledge that Army runs the triple-option offense, but some people might not be as familiar with the option attack at Tulane, which was installed last year under new head coach Willie Fritz. Any time you have two option teams facing each other, chances are it's going to be a low scoring game.
One of the reasons it is so effective against other teams, is they just don't practice that much for it. For these two teams, they see it all the time in practice. They know the gap responsibilities and assignments that other teams struggle with. That should lead to a lot of long clock-eating drives that really shorten the game and make it difficult to score a lot of points.
Neither of these teams will be abandoning the run here. Tulane ranks 126th in passing at just 103.3 ypg and Army is way back at 130th averaging just 12.0 ypg.
Note that Tulane played a good Navy option offense earlier this season and that won finished with 44 points. That was with a rare 79-yard TD pass from Navy, a non-offensive TD by both teams and a safety. The actual offenses in that game were responsible for a mere 27-points. If we can avoid a bunch of fluke scores with defensive returns TDs, this total should stay well below the mark set by the books. Take UNDER!

[New York Knight]

BOBBY CONN

1* Free Play on Oklahoma State -12½ -110

[New York Knight]

TEDDY DAVIS

NCAA-F | Sep 23, 2017
Oklahoma vs. Baylor

Baylor+28

This line here is solely based on performance alone. There is no doubt Baylor will be up for this game even though they are 0-3. Sooners come in as a very public team no doubt about it this week as they have covered every game and have the biggest win of the football season so far beating Ohio St.

The GOY line that Vegas releases in the summer had Oklahoma has 8 point favorites. Now, in just 3 weeks they have adjusted their line 20 points. The value is just too big to pass up here. With this big of line even if the Sooners are blowing them out, it still leaves for a great back door chance. I think Baylor will give great effort here and cover this large number.

[New York Knight]

MARC LAWRENCE

NC State+13

Edges - Wolfpack 6-1 ATS in Game Four; and 5-1 ATS away following consecutive home games… Seminoles: 1-4 ATS Game Two… With college football teams just 2-7 SUATS in Game Two when facing a foe in its 4th game of the season, including g0-3 SUATS as a favorite, we recommend a 1* play on NC State. Thank you and good luck as always.

[New York Knight]

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Horned Frogs (+) over Cowboys

Let me start by saying last season Oklahoma State took down TCU 31-6 and the Frogs crocked early. Now, both teams are 3-0 but you could never confuse the two as the Cowboys with their high flying offense who scored on their first seven possessions against Pittsburgh last week are waiting for TCU's defense orientated clubs led by coach Gary Peterson. As an underdog in double digits he is 10-2 ATS and he will have to find a way to stop Mason Rudolph who averages 378 yards in three quarters. Conference opener...tough football. Take TCU!

[New York Knight]

BOBBY WING

1 Unit Free Pick: TCU vs Oklahoma State over 70½ -105

[New York Knight]

Wunderdog

Central Florida/ Maryland
Under 60

Central Florida has only played one game because of storms, with a pair of cancellations the last two weeks. They haven't played a game since August. And the effects of Hurricane Irma has limited their ability to practice after the Orlando area recovered from the storm. Central Florida is 21-5-1 UNDER the total in September, plus 11-2 UNDER after accumulating 450+ total yards in their previous game. Maryland was also off last week after opening with a pair of non-conference victories. Maryland has a strong backfield, anchored by RB Ty Johnson, and will chew up yards and the clock. The Terrapins have a freshman quarterback in Kasim Hill, who can also run. Maryland is 21-8-1 UNDER after scoring 40+ points in their previous game, plus 15-7-1 UNDER following a victory of more than 20 points. These teams played a 30-24 game last season but it took double-overtime and this total is too high.

[New York Knight]

Rob Veno

Miami, Fla -13½

There’s an obvious bit of unknown where Miami is concerned as they return to the field for the first time in three weeks. Making the Hurricanes even more of a mystery is that their only game this season was played against lower echelon FCS entrant Bethune-Cookman. The one element that likely can be factored into the Miami piece of this handicap is their eagerness to return to the playing field which should translate into 60 minutes of effort and energy. The two weeks off has allowed Miami to probably regain the services of leading WR Ahmmon Richards (hamstring) who did not play in their opener and starting DT Kendrick Norton. They may be cautious with Richards but having him on the field gives the ‘Canes a way to possibly ease the potential of seeing an eight man box against their rushing attack.

Toledo was magnificent offensively last week as they erased a 14 point halftime deficit en-route to their 54-51 victory over Tulsa. The Rockets had five touchdowns in that game of 49 yards or more and QB Logan Woodside threw six TD passes. Defensively however, they were shredded for 423 rushing yards and 6.2 per carry which doesn’t bode well for them versus Miami whose strength is their running game. Toledo has all the weapons to cause problems for the Miami defense which allowed four dives of 10+ plays to Bethune-Cookman but it’s questionable whether they can slow down the ‘Canes ground attack led RB Mark Walton.

This could end up being a defensive nightmare for Toledo which just got pounded with 66 rushing attempts by Tulsa and now face another physical run oriented offense. Selling out against the run may not even be enough but if it is, one-one matchups in the passing game will be open for QB Malik Rosier to exploit. Conversely, Miami DC Manny Diaz isn’t as concerned with his units’ athletic ability as he is the amount of preparation it takes to handle Toledo’s playbook full of motions and formations. The Hurricanes defense is fully focused on rebounding from their less than stellar Week 1 performance and they bring a front seven like nothing Tulsa has seen thus far this season. The 88 degree weather and high 90’s humidity may play a role as well if the home team can grind down the Golden Hurricane defense. Line is priced fairly so have to take a small stance with the home favorite which can be expected to enter this game like a powder keg ready to explode.

[New York Knight]

Drew Martin

Kentucky +1½

Heading into the season, Kentucky talked all about playing at a fast tempo and putting up big points on a weekly basis. Three games into the season and the Wildcats have failed miserably at that claim and are ironically a better team for it. Fifth-year head coach Mark Stoops finally got the message that in order to compete in the SEC, you have to value the football, run the football, and play solid defense. Through three games, UK is +4 in turnover margin, owns a 121-70 run/pass ratio, and is allowing only 346.7 ypg. The competition comes up a little light (Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky and South Carolina), particularly on the offensive end, but Saturday's opponent is another foe where Kentucky's newly-adopted strategy could thrive.

For seven of the eight quarters it has played, Florida's offense has been nothing short of abysmal. The Gators managed 11 rushing yards vs. Michigan and if you eliminate their Hail Mary toss at the end of last week's win over Tennessee, they would have been outgained by 125 yards to the Vols. And Florida's defense hasn't looked nearly as stout as last year's unit that surrendered only 4.66 yards per play. The Wolverines went for 200+ on the ground and through the air and Tennessee averaged over 6 yards per play.

For casual bettors, Kentucky's 30-game losing streak to Florida is going to make this a "Gators or pass" game. But in those 30 games, how many times could you confidently say Kentucky had the ability to win the line of scrimmage battle? I feel they'll do so in Saturday's matchup which is why I'm on the short home underdog.

[New York Knight]

Ian Cameron

Texas Tech at Houston
Over 71

Texas Tech’s offense once again looks fully capable of scoring points in bunches despite losing quarterback and 1st round draft pick Patrick Mahomes. Texas Tech’s new starter, Nic Shimonek, is the latest in a long line of plug-and-play Air Raid system signal callers. Shimonek has absolutely flawless numbers through two games; 78% completions, 927 yards passing and a perfect 9-0 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s got a slew of skill position talent to work with; WR Keke Coutee has 17 catches for 285 yards and three scores while fellow receivers Dylan Cantrell and Cameron Batson each have 12 receptions. And running backs Desmon Nisby and Justin Stockton have combined for 196 yards and 2 TDs. I expect Tech to score its share of points but so should Houston against a Texas Tech defense that still refuses to put any stock into stopping the opposition. Case in point, last week, up 42-24 in the third quarter, the Red Raiders allowed Arizona State to storm back and tie the game late. Tech punched in a score with less than two minutes remaining and was perhap lucky to come away with the win and pointspread cover.

Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen has started off strong for Houston with 534 passing yards and an 86% completion rate through two games. Houston has a trio of senior receivers with Linell Bonner, Steven Dunbar and John Leday who all have double-digit receptions so far on the campaign. It will be a massive challenge for a Texas Tech secondary giving up over 7 yards per pass and 273 passing yards per game. Last week’s game between Texas Tech and Arizona State was lined at 74 and it soared over with 97 points scored. This total is three points lower due in large part to Houston’s ability to play solid defense but it still won’t stop either team from marching up and down the field. Play it over.

[New York Knight]

The Prez

Auburn -18

Two SEC clubs meet up on Saturday night in Columbia, Missouri when the host Tigers welcome the Auburn Tigers. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Faurot Field. The defensive minded Auburn crew have an opportunity to get their offensive untracked against a Missouri defense that has allowed over 35 points per game across their first three contests.

Auburn took an early 6-0 led against No #2 ranked Clemson two Saturday's ago eventually falling by a 14-6 margin. The Tigers followed that up with a 24-10 win against Mercer last Saturday. Since the Tiger season opener, a 41-7 victory over Georgia Southern the offense has been scuffling. That figures to change this weekend when the Auburn "O" squares off against the SEC's most generous defense, Missouri, that is allowing 442.7 yards per game.

Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham led the offense to 510 total yards in the victory over the Bears a week ago but five turnovers kept the Tigers from registering but three touchdowns. Head coach Gus Malzahn is feeling some head due to his offense not performing to expectations but save the five TO's Stidham and the unit was efficient completing 32 of 37 pass attempts for 364 yards.

There isn't anything positive to speak of when referencing the Tigers of Missouri. The defense has allowed nearly twice as much yardage as the offensive has manufactured this season and is coming off a loss to the Purdue Boilermakers that saw the offense record a mere 203 total yards and combine to score just 16 points in the past two games,

Mizzou head coach Barry Odom fired defensive coordinator following the loss to South Carolina but it is unlikely to motivate or ignite the defensive unit. In truth, it is Odom that has been calling the defensive plays since last season, making Cross' departure nothing more than a smoke screen for Odom's issues with the athletic department.

The Auburn Tigers out-man and out-gun the Missouri Tigers and Saturday's final score won't be close.

[New York Knight]

Buster Sports

Louisiana Tech +8

Last week we went against South Carolina with Kentucky getting the OR victory. Today we will fade the Gamecocks one more time. Not only did South Carolina lose their game last week but they also lost a crucial part of their offense when WR Deebo Samuel was lost for the season with a broken leg. South Carolina won their first two games of the year but in each of those games, they won with turnovers. They were also out yarded in both of those victories. Last week Louisiana Tech won a huge conference game beating Western Kentucky. They will come to Columbia with tons of momentum. The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in C-USA and their D is ranked 66th in the country. We believe that with the loss of Samuel for the South Carolina offense, they will struggle against the Louisiana Tech D as they did last week against Kentucky. At the time of this writing, we are getting 8 points and we will be happy to take them. Backing our selection is the fact that Louisiana Tech are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the SEC and the fact that the Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.

[New York Knight]

Oskeim Sports

New Mexico +10.5

Tulsa should not be laying double-digits to anyone, especially to a New Mexico squad that possesses an efficient offense. I am certainly aware of the fact that the Lobos could be down to their third-string quarterback for this game after starter Lamar Jordan and backup Tevaka Tuioti were both knocked out in last week’s game against Boise State.

Third-string quarterback Coltin Gerhart is a graduate transfer from Arizona State and looked decent in relief on the blue carpet. New Mexico’s coaching staff also has two extra days to get Gerhart prepared to face one of the worst defenses in the country.

Tulsa is allowing 51.7 points and 638 yards per game at 9.4 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point to teams that would combine to average just 7.3 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane rate 2.3 yards per rush play and 1.9 yards per pass play worse than average this season. Tulsa’s performance in Week Two epitomizes how bad its defense is: 42 points and 598 total yards at 8.1 yards per play yielded to Louisiana-Lafayette! That is alarming.

New Mexico’s methodical offense is averaging 26.7 points and 396 total yards at 5.9 yards per play, which is certainly good enough to consistently move the chains against Tulsa’s stop unit.

New Mexico’s ground attack has been 0.4 yards per attempt better than average in 2017 (4.9 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow 4.5 yards per rush play), which is significant in that the Lobos will be able to control the clock and keep Tulsa’s offense off the field (Tulsa is averaging 92 plays per game).

I went back the past two seasons to see how the Golden Hurricane have performed against other option attacks. Needless to say, Tulsa’s coaching staff has failed in every respect, giving up an average of 43 points and 7.7 yards per play to Navy the last two years.

More bad news for Tulsa - star defensive end Jesse Brubaker, a senior who had 13.5 tackles for a loss last season, is suspended for the first half of this game due to a targeting penalty he received in last week’s contest.

While Tulsa is averaging 47.0 points per game this season, its offense is only 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre attack). Meanwhile, the Lobos’ stop unit rates 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yards per play), thereby effectively neutralizing Tulsa’s overrated attack.

From a technical standpoint, New Mexico is 12-4 ATS in its last sixteen games following a loss, which indicates that head coach Bob Davie does an excellent job in getting his team to bounce back from defeat.

In contrast, the Golden Hurricane are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games versus .499 or worse opposition and 3-8-1 ATS in their last eleven games overall versus teams with a losing record (15-34 ATS since 1992).

With New Mexico standing at 36-17 ATS versus teams averaging 31+ points per game, 15-5 ATS versus teams averaging 37+ points per game and 21-9 ATS against opposing offenses that average more than 5.89 yards per play.

[New York Knight]

Oskeim Sports

Iowa +13

Both teams take the field with identical 3-0 records, although I have been more impressed with Iowa’s resume, which includes a double-digit win over Wyoming and a road victory at Iowa State. The Hawkeyes are averaging 33.0 points and 398 total yards per game at 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack to they are just slightly above average offensively.

However, Iowa possesses an outstanding defense that has been 0.8 yards per play better than average (5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yards per play), especially at home where the Hawkeyes have yielded just 8.5 points and 269 total yards per game at 4.6 yards per play and 31.6 yards per point. Overall, I rate Iowa 0.9 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage in 2017.

Penn State has amassed eye-opening statistics by beating up on Akron (52-0) and Georgia State (56-0), while actually being outgained in its 33-14 win over Pittsburgh.

The Nittany Lions’ aerial attack has been mediocre despite averaging 282 passing yards at 9.6 yards per pass attempt with a 64.8% completion rate. Specifically, the 9.6 yards per pass play has come against three teams that would combine to allow 9.6 yards per play to an average quarterback.

Meanwhile, Iowa’s defensive backfield has been spectacular this season, allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt to a group of quarterbacks who would average 7.5 yards per pass play against a mediocre secondary). Rating 1.3 yards per pass play better than average gives the Hawkeyes a significant advantage over Penn State’s grossly overrated passing attack.

Iowa will have a difficult time moving the chains against an elite Penn State defense that is 1.0 yards per play better than average. However, the Hawkeyes play at an excruciatingly slow pace that allows them to dominate time of possession (averaging 35:35 per game this season), thereby making them solid investments when getting points.

From a technical standpoint, Iowa is 9-3 ATS with conference revenge (lost 41-14 last year), 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of 4+ points and 8-2 ATS in Game Four of the season.

Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is a profitable 9-2 ATS as a conference home underdog of more than seven points, including 7-1 ATS with revenge and 4-0 ATS at home with triple-revenge. Ferentz is also an incredible 19-5-1 ATS when playing with revenge with the Hawkeyes, including 10-0-1 ATS over the last eleven circumstances.

Finally, Iowa is 22-8 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown, including 17-3 ATS versus an opponent off a straight-up win (defeated Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog last season). Grab the points and invest with confidence.

[New York Knight]

MATT JOSEPHS

NCAA-F | Sep 23, 2017
Florida International vs. Rice

Florida International+2

I watched all of the Rice Houston game and was thoroughly unimpressed with the Owls. Their offense was stale and their defense got gashed. The team will be without their starting QB and one of their better weapons Sam Stewart. The team's one win came at UTEP which says more about the Miners then it does about Rice. FIU has had extra time to prepare for this one after their 17-10 win over Alcorn State. Let's be honest, they aren't that great either, but they are healthier and feature a little more talent.