Monday 9-25-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Team Underground

MLB PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ‑135

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Tommy King Wins

MLB PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ‑135

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Top Dog LB

MLB TORONTO BLUE JAYS +200

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Tys Terrific Tips

NFL DALLAS COWBOYS ‑2.5

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Next Fan Up Picks

NFL DALLAS COWBOYS ‑3

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TOP SU TREND:

-- The Rangers are 0-12 since Jun 25, 2014 as a home dog when they are off two losses in which they never led.

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TOP OU TREND:

-- The Cubs are 0-11-1 OU (-2.71 ppg) since Oct 09, 2015 as a dog coming off a game as a favorite in which they scored in more innings than their opponent.

TOP STARTER TREND:

-- The Giants are 0-7 since May 07, 2017 when Johnny Cueto starts when they won in his last start.

TOP CHOICE TREND:

-- The Padres are 10-0 since Jul 02, 2017 coming off a home game in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

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Doug Upstone

Sep 25 '17, 8:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Marlins vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies -155 at betonline

Miami has been scoring runs but is still a good-sized underdog at Colorado and here is why. NL road underdogs with a money line of +145 or more like the Marlins, with a on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or less, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games are a mere 15-83 since 2013.

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Bobby Conn

Sep 25 '17, 7:05 PM in 55m
MLB | Nationals vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies -154 at betonline

1* Free Play on Phillies -154

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TJ Pemberton

Sep 25 '17, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Astros vs Rangers
Play on: Astros -122 at betonline

MLB Free Pick: Play on the Astros
The Houston Astros will hit the road and play in Texas against the Rangers on Monday. Houston is 95-59 on the season and the top team in the AL West. The Astros are 47-25 in divisional games this season and are 47-27 on the road this year. Houston is 8-2 over their last ten games. Collin McHugh will make his 11th start of the season for Houston. McHugh is 3-2 on the season with 52.1 innings pitched. McHugh carries a 3.44 ERA with 48 strikeouts and 16 walks. McHugh pitched 5 innings in his last start allowing one earned run on five hits. he Astros own this series and have been playing better ball all season long.

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Hunter Price

Sep 25 '17, 8:15 PM in 2h
MLB | Cubs vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals -136 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Cardinals -136

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SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas -3 over ARIZONA

Dallas got whacked by the Broncos 42-17, but the biggest story coming out of that game on the Cowboys' side was the shade thrown on running back Ezekiel Elliot after he quit on a pair of Dak Prescott interceptions, one of which led to a touchdown when he could have made a tackle on the return. Zeke also had his worst rushing day as a pro with eight yards on nine carries. The Cowboys are a premier team and just about everything that happens in Big D is blown out of proportion. Dallas was a small road favorite going into Denver after coming off a high-profile Sunday night win over the Giants, but now that New York is 0-2 after an embarrassing loss of its own on Monday night, that victory over Big Blue doesn't hold as much weight in the market as it maybe did a week ago. We've heard this week that the blueprint is now out on how to beat the Cowboys, stop Zeke and make Prescott throw. These are the same guys that were slobbering all over Dak after he threw just four interceptions all of last season. In a week to week league like the NFL we are always looking for over and under-reactions and a lopsided loss like the one the ‘Boys suffered in Denver really stands out when you are supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. There is no shame in losing in the Mile High City, as the Broncos have been the best home team in the NFL for over four decades. The unpleasant way in which it went down should only motivate the Cowboys to be better this week when they take a big step down in competition with the entire country watching on a Monday night game in the desert.

Our fade of the Cardinals continues this week. Arizona is also 1-1 but they’ve played two of the ugliest games of football we’ve ever seen to open a season. They’ve lost their best player with running back David Johnson out for at least a couple of months and what remains of their offense looks old and busted. Carson Palmer is at the end of the line and looks like he couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn right now, His 54.8 completion percentage this season proves it. Palmer has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) and the only reason the Cardinals aren’t taking as much heat as the Giants are is because nobody without a stake has bothered to watch either of their games. It's not just the surface stats that are showing Palmer's decline but his numbers under the hood as well. When looking at Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (which gives the value of a QB's performance compared to a replacement level, and then translated into yardage) Palmer is a -35, which puts him 25th in the league, sandwiched between Mike Glennon and Jacoby Brissett, not exactly elite company. What's more, the Cardinals offense as a whole has a negative DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rating of -24% which ranks 27th in the league and puts them with the likes of the Jets and Texans through two games, but neither of those clubs had the high preseason expectation of the Cardinals. Arizona was very fortunate to have won last Sunday, as the undermanned Colts led for most of that game. The Cards were able to capitalize on a Jacoby Brissett interception early in overtime in Colts territory. Arizona was lucky to take the game into OT and just as fortunate to win it.

We’re always preaching not to overreact to one or two performances so one has to question whether we’re overreacting to Arizona’s two ugly performances. That’s a fair question that requires an answer. We started attacking Arizona right out of the gate and suggested that this year is a carryover from last season in which the Cardinals got progressively worse each week. We’re reacting to a 16-game schedule last plus two games this year in which the Cardinals more often than not looked sloppy and old and were the inferior team on the field most weeks. Arizona has not improved while Dallas is an outstanding football team that is coming off one bad week. We absolutely love that Zak Prescott took responsibility for last week’s debacle, as that shows leadership and inspires everyone to rally. The overreaction here is to Dallas getting torched last week but great teams rebound big time and Dallas couldn’t have handpicked a softer opponent than the incapable and disheveled group that they’ll see here. Rarely are we in favor of spotting road points but there are exceptions from time to time and we trust that the market is way off on this one.

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Randall The Handle

Cowboys (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)

The Cardinals have lulled everyone to sleep after a pair of lackluster efforts in first two with last week’s narrow win over hapless Colts being most alarming. Expect a bounce back as Arizona returns to the desert for home debut and on a Monday night to boot. The Cowboys are hurting at various positions and this after looking less than ordinary after drubbing in Denver last week. Dallas’ strong offensive line from a year ago took a hit this offseason and is not nearly as effective as it was in 2016. Ezekiel Elliot is putting up pedestrian numbers so far and Dallas’ secondary was exposed as the suspect unit many had identified. Cowboys have now lost four straight on road along with just two covers in past nine games overall. They hardly deserve to be chalk in this one. TAKING: CARDINALS +3

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Larry Ness

Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Seattle -109

A check of the standings will show that the Oakland A's are 72-83, leaving them in last-place in the AL West, 23 games back of first-place Houston. However, with a roster packed with promising rookies, Oakland has gone 14-3 over its last 17 games. The A's just completed a three-game home sweep of the Texas Rangers with Sunday's 8-1 victory, which all but eliminated the Rangers from postseason contention. Texas is now 5 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second American League wild card with Sunday's loss and has just seven games remaining in the season. Speaking of playoff elimination, the 75-81 Mariners were officially eliminated from wild card contention with Sunday's 4-2 loss against Cleveland, Seattle's eighth loss in its last nine games.

It's been exciting," Oakland manager Bob Melvin said before Sunday's game. "This is probably the best feeling we've had as a team all year, here recently. It's the Matt Chapmans and the Matt Olsons and the Chad Pinders, all these guys that have come up and really given us hope and an expectation and confidence going into next season." Oakland goes for an eighth consecutive win tonight against Seattle, with rookie Daniel Gossett (4-9, 5.38 ERA) squaring off against Seattle's Felix Hernandez (5-5 4,.57 ERA). Gossett is coming off a no-decision at Detroit on Tuesday, despite allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks over just 4.2 innings. However, he had allowed three runs or less in each of his previous four starts, but pitching with a lack of support, went only 1-3 in that span.

Seattle's Hernandez just returned from the DL in mid-September and in an oddity, has made his last three starts, all against Texas. He started against Texas back on July 31, then spent about six weeks on the DL and since his return, his two starts back have also come against the Rangers. It's been an injury-plagued season for the former Cy Young winner but he's 24-9 with a 2.62 ERA over 45 careers starts against the A's (team is 31-14).

Sure, the A's are "having fun" playing with no pressure but Hernandez's 24 wins against the A's are his most victories vs any team in his career. Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Gossett is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Mariners, both coming here in 2017. Yes, the A's are enjoying their longest winning streak since a nine-game run in April of 2013 but tonight, I'm betting on the 'King!'

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Chip Chirimbes

Cowboys at Cardinals
Play: Cardinals +3

For the most part I would love to 'fade' both these clubs. First, it is easy to play against Dallas as the Cowboys are the media and public darlings but I know how bad the Cardinals really are. After their performance last time out and with the scrutiny that has been focused on Ezekiel Elliot's lack of hustle Dallas should have a more concerted effort. Arizona, meanwhile staged a narrow come-from-behind win at Indianapolis which exploited their weaknesses after an opening loss at Detroit. This is the Cardinals first game at home in over a month and that will help.

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SPORTS WAGERS

BOSTON -1½ -105 over Toronto

As value bettors, this one may not seem like it has any but we’re also situational bettors and in this case, situation takes precedence over value. The Blue Jays played their final home game of the season yesterday to a packed house (47,000+) at Rogers Center. Playing in his last home game as a Blue Jay, the day was all about long-time Toronto slugger Jose Bautista.

From the time starter Marcus Stroman warmed up in a vintage Bautista jersey, until the final curtain call, the packed house took every chance to stand and cheer Bautista, who has recorded some of the biggest hits in club history, including the memorable bat flip when he hit a three-run home run off Texas Rangers reliever Sam Dyson, which ultimately sent the Jays to the 2015 ALCS. Manager John Gibbons pulled Bautista from right field with one out in the top of the ninth to allow the crowd to give the long-time Jay an emotional send-off. Bautista hugged many of his teammates as he made his way off the field, ran to the dugout, then came out for another acknowledgment and was given a standing ovation. Make no mistake that it was an emotional day with a playoff like atmosphere. The day was about Joey Bats, as he was the face of the franchise for a number of years. Coming off very few highs this season, one really has to wonder where Toronto’s motivation will come from today.

The Jays will end the season with six games on the road with no chance of impacting Boston’s chances of missing the playoffs. Boston is in and needs just one more win to lock up the AL East. Thus, the Jays are likely going to be on a big emotional low here after such a high yesterday. Aside from that, they are inferior to the Red Sox in every area, especially on the mound with Drew Pomeranz going up against Brett Anderson and their strong bullpen up against Toronto’s struggling ‘pen.

Atlanta -113 over N.Y. METS

This is Game 1 of a double-header and we’re going to play Atlanta in both games. The listed pitchers for Game 1 are Lucas Sims versus Chris Flexen.

Prior to 2017, Sims' biggest problem was control. This year, in both Triple-A and the majors, he appears to have made a significant improvement in that area, backed by an elite first-pitch strike rate. When a high prospect begins to throw strikes, usually good things will start to happen. After a 37% groundball rate for most of the year, Sims’ groundball rate in his last start was 60%. His swinging strike rate is 12% over his last three starts too. The 23-year-old Sims has upside. He has a 96 mph fastball with life and a "great 12-6 curve that ranks among the best in the organization. He’s going to be a major piece in the Braves rotation over the next several years and he’s getting better with each passing start.

Chris Flexen is the opposite of Sims. Flexen was “supposed to be ”MLB ready when he made his debut back in late July but he’s been anything but. Some guys are never MLB ready once they get here and Flexen has not come close to proving he belongs. First, he can’t throw strikes. He’s walked 30 batters in 29 frames and 10 batters over his last 10 innings. He’s constantly behind in the count and he’s not facing a free-swinging squad here. In fact, Atlanta has struck out the fourth fewest times in all of MLB. Flexon brings a 2.12 WHIP into this game, meaning he’s surrounded by traffic every inning. He has a 7.18 ERA, a 9.98 xERA and because he’s forced to use his fastball when behind in the count, hitters are sitting on it. His fastball has been flat and every time he takes the mound, so are the Mets. Give us Atlanta at a short price in Game 1 and as a dog in Game 2 and we’re thrilled to be going with the best of it here in both games.

Atlanta +118 over N.Y. METS

This is Game 2 of a double-header and we’re betting that the Braves win at least one, although we’re expecting them to sweep. In Game 2, the listed pitchers are Max Fried against Seth Lugo. Max Fried was the centerpiece in the trade that landed the Padres Justin Upton despite having just undergone Tommy John surgery, Fried has seen his valuation as a prospect ebb and

Max Fried was the centerpiece in the trade that landed the Padres Justin Upton despite having just undergone Tommy John surgery, Fried has seen his valuation as a prospect ebb and flow heavily in the last few seasons. Originally drafted 7th overall in 2012 out of Harvard Westlake, Fried boasted three pitches that all flashed plus at the time: A low-to-mid-90s fastball, a tight, sweeping curve in the high 70s that flashed double plus (which he now has two versions of), and a change that was already near an average pitch, all in a left-handed package standing at an athletic, 6’4” and 180 pounds. Glimpses of that same pitcher emerged last year after it seemed the 24-year-old Fried was fully back from missing almost two full seasons, rattling off a number of dominant performances for Single-A Rome to end his campaign. Those hopes were put on hold for Fried at Double-A Mississippi this season, where he amassed a 2-11 record and a 6.33 ERA over 86.2 difficult innings. The underlying skills are a bit muddier. While he’s got a problematic command profile, Fried is still keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%) and whiffing near 9 per 9. Fried has battled blisters all season long and ended up on the DL in June. Since he’s been back, he’s been a different pitcher. He held righties to a .231/.300/.269 line over his first three starts back in which he did not allow an earned run. On September 3, he threw a five-inning beauty against the Cubbies. He’s worked out of the ‘pen and as a starter since early August and while he brings risk, Seth Lugo brings a higher risk as the chalk.

Last year, Lugo went 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings for the Mets. It was not a breakout, instead, it was just a lucky MLB hit%/strand% combo (24%/81%), which was the flip side of his fortunes in AAA. Lugo has thrown 91 innings this year over 17 starts. He comes in with 25 BB’s, 74 walks, a 5.03 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He’s also pitching for a banged up team that just finished a series with Washington over the weekend. Seth Lugo does not own stats or skills worth getting behind. Things have not been any better for him in the second half (5.32 ERA) than they were in the first half. The reality is that he's a late bloomer who didn't arrive 'til 26 and may disappear as fast as he came. The Braves continue to play hard every day and of the two teams playing a double-header in the final week of the season, we trust that New York will be less interested.

Miami -1½ +230 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

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Buster Sports

Mariners at Athletics
Play: Over 9

The Seattle Mariners come to Oakland to face the red-hot Athletics. The A’s have won seven in a row and look to continue their winning streak. Our play will be on the OVER in this game and this is why. The starting pitchers for tonight’s game are for the Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (5-5, 4.57 ERA) and he will face the Athletics RH Daniel Gossett (4-9, 5.38 ERA) King Felix has not had the 2017 season that he would’ve liked. He has been inconsistent and had to deal with injuries all year. Since his latest injury he could only pitch 3 2/3 innings in his first start and in his last start he allowed 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings. We see a red-hot Athletics club getting to the King tonight. As for Gossett, he has had a real tough go in 2017. When he has faced the Mariners for his career he is sporting a 6.75 ERA with an ugly WHIP of 2.375. We see Seattle getting to Gossett early and often tonight.

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Bob Balfe

Giants +110

The DBacks clinched a wild card spot last night so you know the players had a couple too many drinks last night and obviously are not taking a Giants team serious tonight. San Fran has been owned the last few games in this series and will be looking to spoil the mood just a bit. Look for Arizona to give a few guys some rest after their big achievement.

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MLB Daily Line Drive: Monday's picks, betting odds and analysis

There are 12 games on the MLB schedule today, including Yu Darvish and the Dodgers who are still trying to get their season turned back around in time for the playoffs. Get analysis on all of today's games as well as tips on weather, umpires, and other betting trends with our daily MLB Line Drive.

Double-Play Picks

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 8.5)

The Nationals and Phillies open a three-game series this evening in Philadelphia. It's a very rare occasion when the Phillies are favored over their division rivals from Washington, D.C. - and even more rare is when we actually pick them to win as favorites over the Nats.

Aaron Nola is the ace of the young Phillies' pitching staff and brings with him a very impressive 9-4 win/loss record at home this season (keep in mind, this is the Phillies) with an also very impressive 2.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park. Over his last three starts Nola is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA, and in his only home start against the Nats this season he worked six innings and allowed three runs in an eventual 17-3 win by the Phils.

A.J. Cole will get the road start for the Nationals. Washington has lost five of his last six starts and he has spent some time in the bullpen during that span, which also did not go very well. As we reach the end of a long season these young arms will begin to tire, and over his last two appearances Cole owns an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 2.00.

This is a tough time of year to handicap baseball games, your best strategy is to take the starting pitcher you feel most comfortable backing. Today that is Aaron Nola.

Pick: Phillies -135

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-265, 8)

The Padres hit the road to end their 2017 season with the first stop being Los Angeles where they will take on the Dodgers for three games.

The Dodgers' big trade deadline acquisition, Yu Darvish, will makes his ninth start as both he and the club try to right the ship after a very dicey fourth quarter of the season. For Darvish's part, he really seemed to put things together on the team's recent road trip where he made a pair of starts and pitched to a 0.00 ERA and a 0.6487 WHIP over 12.1 innings of work.

The Dodgers still aren't scoring a lot of runs, averaging only 3.00 runs per game over their last nine. This is great news for Padres lefty Travis Wood, who is listed as our Slumping Starter today but is coming off a solid outing against the Diamondbacks where he allowed only three hits over six innings.

Call it a hunch. The Dodgers (1.15) and Padres (1.25) rank No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in National League bullpen WHIP, so if this becomes a bullpen battle we should see plenty of zeros hitting the board.

Pick: Under 8

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 156-140-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals (7-1, 2.05 ERA, $604)

Luke Weaver is going to be part of the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff for a long time and that must make Cards fans very happy. The 24-year old is having a breakout season sporting a 7-1 record (9-2 team win/loss) with a 2.05 ERA and has won six straight trips to the mound.

During this six-start stretch, he has thrown 36.1 innings allowing six runs (1.49 ERA), has a WHIP of 0.9083, struck out 49 and only walked four.

Weaver looks to extend his personal winning streak when the Cubbies visit today and the Cardinals are available at -123.

Slumping: Travis Wood, San Diego Padres (4-6, 6.55 ERA, $162)

Not a lot to be excited about at the end of September for the San Diego Padres, the season can’t end quickly enough. Travis Wood might not have already packed his bags for the off-season but I suspect he’s mentally checked out.

The Padres left-hander is 1-2 in his last three starts with a whopping 14.81 ERA and a 2.23 WHIP. Throwing a total of 10.1 innings and allowing 7 home runs.

Wood and the Padres take the field (in body) as +236 road pups against Yu Darvish and the Dodgers.

Monday's Top Trends

* Braves are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New York. -111 @ Mets.

* Over is 12-2 in Aaron Nola’s last 14 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. WAS/PHI Total: 8.5

* Under is 8-1 in Collin McHugh’s last 9 starts overall. HOU/TEX Total: 10.5

* Angels are 0-7 in Ricky Nolasco’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. -151 @ White Sox.

* Athletics are 8-0 in their last 8 home games. +101 vs. Mariners.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

According to the forecast, there shouldn’t be any precipitation that will interrupt any of today's games on the MLB schedule.

It should be a pretty calm day in the wind department as well, with the only wind getting into double digits is at Oakland Coliseum, where 8-10 mile per hour winds will be blowing out to right center field. The Athletics are hosting the Seattle Mariners tonight and the total is currently at 9.5.