The newness of the 2017 NFL season is wearing off, and mainstream sports media, football analysts and fans alike believe they have enough data to fully evaluate the league, despite a very small sample of only three games. Public bettors rely heavily on content and data such as analyst power rankings, ATS performances, recent results and even fantasy football trends to help make NFL betting decisions. As we know, basing any decision on recent data alone often leads to the over- or undervaluing of NFL teams.

With Week 4 lines now available, we can take advantage of the recency bias of public bettors to uncover valuable opportunities across the NFL betting market. Our Week 4 betting system is one I created a couple seasons ago with our Bet Labs data analysis software that provides a 57.8 percent against the spread (ATS) win rate, plus-28.86 units won and a 12.4 percent return on investment (ROI) over a large sample of 232 games since the start of the 2003 NFL season.

To begin, we look at only teams that are on three-game losing streaks. Right off the bat, we have a sample of more than 375 games, an ATS win percentage of 53.9 percent and a profit of almost 20 units won.

Next, separating underdogs from favorites improves the system's overall ATS win rate to the aforementioned 57.8 percent.


ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI

All 205-175 (53.9%) +19.37 5.1%

Favorites/Pick'ems 71-77 (48%) -9.49 -6.4%

Underdogs 134-98 (57.8%) +28.86 12.4%

All records & numbers since start of 2003 season.


ATS record, units won and ROI based on closing lines from Pinnacle.


Why does this work?

It's no secret that the general betting public has a difficult time backing bad teams. Teams that have yet to win a game three weeks into the season have certainly disappointed both fans and bettors, convincing the masses to avoid these teams and bet on their opponents. Oddsmakers are adept at accurately anticipating one-sided betting and will shade openers so public bettors, who bet on teams and not numbers, lay bad prices. For example, a game rated as -3 will be posted at -3.5 to force bettors who want to play the favorite to take it at a half-point worse than it should be.

This shading results in additional value with the underdog, which is now available at +3.5 (instead of +3). Sharp bettors are interested only in value and have no qualms about taking teams that have lost three straight games, as long as there is value in the number.


Week 4 system matches


Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns

This game is interesting, as it's a matchup of two teams that are on three-game losing streaks, but remember: Favorites in this situation have actually been a losing proposition, with an ATS win rate of only 47.9 percent.

As a result, Cleveland, the underdog, qualifies as the value play in this scenario based on our system results above. The public wants no part of this play as well, with only 29 percent of spread tickets and 26 percent of money bet on the spread backing the Browns.

At the time of publication, this line is Cleveland +3 at Westgate, but a handful of sportsbooks, including some market setters, have ticked up to 3.5. Bettors following this value play should be sure to shop around and grab that extra half-point off the key number of three.

The pick: Browns (+3)


New York Giants (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When considering the most disappointing teams through the first three weeks of the season, it's hard to not put the Giants near the top (if not at the top) of that list. Following an 11-5 season, New York is off to an 0-3 start, Eli looks cooked, and the stud playmaker is simulating a dog urinating on footballs in end zone celebrations. Woof.

As contrarian bettors, we see this as a situation to buy an undervalued Giants team getting three points on the road against an opponent that just turned Case Keenum into Dan Marino.

The pick: Giants (+3)


San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Arizona Cardinals

As of Tuesday morning, Pinnacle does not have a line for this game, so it's not currently showing as a match for our system. That said, a handful of sportsbooks, including Westgate, have already opened this game at Arizona -7. As seven-point underdogs, San Francisco easily qualifies for our system; the 49ers are a rare combination of a team that is 0-3 straight up but 2-1 ATS.

At a full touchdown, we like the value of the 49ers and the points against the Cardinals, who are on a short week coming off Monday Night Football.

The pick: 49ers +7


Additional game to watch:

The Los Angeles Chargers are one-point favorites at Pinnacle for their Week 4 game against the Philadelphia Eagles. At 0-3, the Chargers will qualify for this week's system if the line moves toward the Eagles and flips Los Angeles to the underdog in this matchup.



Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflect current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.