Jack Jones

Sep 30 '17, 12:00 PM in

NCAA-F | Vanderbilt vs Florida
Play on: Vanderbilt +10 -110 at betonline

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Vanderbilt +10

The betting public wants nothing to do with Vanderbilt now after they were blown out 59-0 by the Alabama Crimson Tide last week. This is the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Commodores now as 10-point road underdogs to the Florida Gators.

People are quick to forget Vanderbilt's impressive 3-0 start now. They went on the road and won 28-6 as only 2.5-point favorites against a very good Middle Tennessee State team that actually had starting QB Brent Stockstill at that point. They then shut out Alabama A&M 42-0 before upsetting Kansas State 14-7 as 4-point dogs. Kansas State is very similar to Florida in my opinion.

Florida may be 2-1, but the Gators could easily be 0-3 and probably should be. They lost 17-33 to Michigan, then connected on a hail mary on the final play of the game to beat a bad Tennessee team 26-20. Then last week they extended their winning streak over Kentucky to 31 games with a 28-27 win, scoring a touchdown in the final seconds to grab victory from the jaws of defeat.

I've seen nothing from Florida this season that would warrant them being double-digit favorites here against a Vanderbilt team that is every bit as good as they are. This is a Florida team with a laundry list of suspensions and injuries right now, which has been a big reason for their early struggles, and it's not getting any better this week.

This is the best team Vanderbilt has had under Derek Mason, and the Commodores played much better Gators teams tough the last two years. They only lost 7-9 as 20.5-point road dogs in 2015, and lost 6-13 as 14-point home dogs last year. I think this game will be decided by a single possession once again.

The Commodores are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in this situation over the last two seasons. The Gators are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Florida. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.